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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
http://www.kepner-tregoe.com/
Problem Solving and Decision Making –
Kepner-Tregoe
The Rational Manager
Charles H.
Kegner,
1922-
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
While working for the RAND Corporation in the 1950s, Dr.
Charles Kepner and Dr. Benjamin Tregoe conducted
research on breakdowns in decision making at Strategic
Air Command.
Benjamin B.
Tregoe,
1927-2005
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Problem Solving and Decision Making according to
Kepner and Tregoe consists of four distinct
processes, each designed to address a specific
type of business situation
They discovered that successful decision making by US Air
Force officers had less to do with rank or career path than in
the logical process an officer used to gather, organize, and
analyze information before taking action.
Based on their initial research, they founded Kepner-Tregoe,
a company that continues to analyze and develop thinking
processes for critical business applications.
• Situational Appraisal
• Problem Analysis
• Decision Analysis
• Potential Problem Analysis
.
http://www.edisonohio.edu/business/KepnerTregoeDecisionMaking.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kepner-Tregoe
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
The brake makes noise when I turn right after leaving the motorway!
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Cause: Corrosion on disc brake after rain.
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Air ventilation has been adapted – wet air reaches light bulbs.
Ceiling light jitters from time to time.
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Situational Appraisal
Situational Appraisal
helps to evaluate “the whole picture” by
is used to separate, clarify, and prioritize concerns.
• breaking issues down into workable pieces,
When confusion is mounting, the correct approach is
• establishing priorities, and
unclear, or priorities overwhelm plans, Situation
• selecting appropriate steps to resolve the issues.
Appraisal is the tool of choice.
Situation Appraisal answers the question
“What’s going on?”
http://www.edisonohio.edu/business/KepnerTregoeDecisionMaking.htm
http://www.edisonohio.edu/business/KepnerTregoeDecisionMaking.htm
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Situational Appraisal
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Situational Appraisal
is a tool to use in order to:
The steps of Situation Appraisal help “SCAN” a
complex circumstance:
• Examine an issue in greater depth
• Surface opinions or feelings about an
emotional/volatile issue
•
•
•
•
• Know what is on people's minds
• Get started on an assignment or project
See the Issues
Clarify the Issues
Assess Priorities
Name Next Steps
• Address complex situations
http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-SA.htm
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http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-SA.htm
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Problem Analysis
Problem Analysis
is used to find the cause of a positive or negative
deviation.
When something unexpectedly goes wrong, people
typically want to take immediate action.
When people, machinery, systems, or processes are
not performing as expected, Problem Analysis points
to the relevant information and leads the way to the
root cause.
Doing something makes us feel better - maybe we
will be able to fix the problem.
http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-PA.htm
http://www.edisonohio.edu/business/KepnerTregoeDecisionMaking.htm
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Problem Analysis
Problem Analysis
However, without knowing what caused the problem,
we are more likely to make changes that either don't
fix the problem or make it worse.
Problem Analysis helps us “FIND” the most likely
cause when something goes wrong:
Other times people focus more on who's at fault
than on how to fix it.
•
•
•
•
Getting and using information effectively is difficult.
http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-PA.htm
http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-PA.htm
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Focus on the Problem
Identify Is and Is Not
Narrow Possible Causes
Determine True Cause
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Decision Analysis
Decision Analysis
Many times a day, we are all faced with the need to
make decisions.
Decision Analysis is designed to help us to look at
the purpose of our decision and carefully consider
what we want to accomplish before we ever
examine our options.
Sometimes those decisions are crucial, and
sometimes they are more routine.
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In choosing an option, we consider not only how well
it meets our objectives, but also what risks may be
involved.
http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-DA.htm
EuroMPM Decision - kt01.ppt Peter J. A. Reusch
http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-DA.htm
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Decision Analysis
Decision Analysis
The steps of Decision Analysis help us “SELECT” an
appropriate choice:
is used for making a choice.
Decision Analysis helps when the path ahead is
uncertain, when there are too many choices, or the
risk of making the wrong choice is too high.
• State the Decision
• Establish and Classify Criteria
• List Options
Decision Analysis clarifies the purpose and balances
risks and benefits to arrive at a solid and supported
choice.
• Evaluate Options against Criteria
• Consider Risks
• Trust Your Work – Pick a Winner!
http://www.edisonohio.edu/business/KepnerTregoeDecisionMaking.htm
http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-DA.htm
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Decision Analysis
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Potential Problem Analysis
provides a process for making a decision when the
choice among options is unclear, helping to examine
systematically the elements of any decision –
criteria, options, and risks.
is used to protect actions or plans.
When a project simply must go well, risk is high, or
myriad things could go wrong, Potential Problem
Analysis reveals the driving factors and identifies
ways to lower risk.
Decision Analysis answers the question
“What course of action should we take?”
http://www.edisonohio.edu/business/KepnerTregoeDecisionMaking.htm
http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-AnalyticProcess.htm
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
EuroMPM Decision - kt01.ppt Peter J. A. Reusch
Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Potential Problem Analysis
Potential Problem Analysis
Actually making a decision is only the beginning.
Potential Problem Analysis can help us to:
Once that choice is made, we begin the process of
living with it.
1. Examine the potential consequences of our
decisions or actions;
The best decision-making process is rendered
useless if the implementation of that decision is
unsuccessful.
2. Implement a decision that has been made; and
3. Prepare for an upcoming event or change.
http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-PPOA.htm
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http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-PPOA.htm
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Potential Problem Analysis
Ask the right questions !
provides tools for risk reduction by helping to
•
•
•
•
•
•
• identify potential problems (opportunities) and
• plan preventive (promoting) and
• contingent (capitalizing) actions.
Potential Problem Analysis answers the question
What is … ?
When was/did … ?
Who is/can/did … ?
Where is/was/did … ?
Why is/does … ?
How is/can/did … ?
“What lies ahead?”
http://www.tregoe.org/AboutTEF/AboutTEF-AnalyticProcess.htm
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Ask the right questions !
Ask the right questions !
You begin with a specific goal in mind
You get a different result
Actual
Actual
You find the deviation
Goal
Begin
Goal
Begin
This is the Problem
Point of Deviation
You analyze and correct the deviation
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Ask the right questions !
Ask the right questions !
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•
•
•
•
•
What is … ?
When was/did … ?
Who is/can/did … ?
Where is/was/did … ?
Why is/does … ?
How is/can/did … ?
EuroMPM Decision - kt01.ppt Peter J. A. Reusch
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•
•
•
•
•
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What is NOT … ?
When was/did … NOT… ?
Who is/can/did … NOT… ?
Where is/was/did … NOT… ?
Why is/does … NOT… ?
How is/can/did … NOT ?
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Ask the right questions !
Ask the right questions !
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What is known?
What was observed?
What are the constraints?
What is impotant?
What are the goals / objectives?
What can be expected?
EuroMPM Decision - kt01.ppt Peter J. A. Reusch
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•
•
•
•
•
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What is NOT known?
What was NOT observed?
What are NOT constraints?
What is NOT important?
What are NOT goals?
What is NOT expected?
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Ask the right questions !
Ask the right questions !
• When did the problem occur?
• When must the solution be implemented? When
did changes occur?
• When were instruments calibrated?
EuroMPM Decision - kt01.ppt Peter J. A. Reusch
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•
•
•
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When did the problem NOT occur?
When is the solution NOT needed?
When did changes NOT ocour?
When were instruments NOT calibrated?
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Ask the right questions !
Ask the right questions !
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Who can provide more information?
Who is the customer?
Who performed (each) task?
Who is source of information?
Who is affected by problem?
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Who can NOT provide information?
Who is NOT the customer?
Who did NOT perform (each) task?
Who is NOT source of information?
Who is NOT affected by the problem?
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Ask the right questions !
Ask the right questions !
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•
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•
•
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Where did the problem occur?
Where are input sources located?
Where is equipment located?
Where are products shipped?
Where is the customer located?
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Where did the problem NOT occur?
Where are input sources NOT located?
Where is equipment NOT located?
Where are products NOT shipped?
Where is the customer NOT located?
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Ask the right questions !
Ask the right questions !
• Why is the problem NOT lmportant?
• Why does the solution NOT work?
• Why is there NOT a problem?
• Why is the problem important?
• Why does the solution work?
• Why is there a problem?
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Ask the right questions !
Ask the right questions !
• How is the problem related to other problems?
• How can a task be performed?
• How did the problem develop?
EuroMPM Decision - kt01.ppt Peter J. A. Reusch
• How is the problem NOT related to other
problems?
• How can a task NOT be performed?
• How did the problem NOT develop?
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Decision Making
Decision Making
The Decision Making process into six logical steps:
The Decision Making process into six logical steps:
1. State the Purpose
1. State the Purpose
2. Establish Objectives
3. Classify Objectives
4. Weigh the WANTs
5. Compare Alternatives
6. Choose the Best Course of Action
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Decision Making
Decision Making
The Decision Making process into six logical steps:
The Decision Making process into six logical steps:
2.
3. Classify Objectives –
Establish Objectives –
All objectives are defined in a list.
EuroMPM Decision - kt01.ppt Peter J. A. Reusch
Separate into MUSTs and WANTs.
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Decision Making
Decision Making
The Decision Making process into six logical steps:
The Decision Making process into six logical steps:
4. Weigh the WANTs –
5. Compare Alternatives –
Assign and compare total scores for each alternative.
Rate importance of each WANT on a
scale of 10 to 1 for each.
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Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Problem Solving and Decision Making – Kepner-Tregoe
Decision-making process into six logical steps:
Decision Making
1. State the Purpose
The Decision Making process into six logical steps:
2. Establish Objectives – All objectives are defined in a list
3. Classify Objectives – Separate into MUSTs and WANTs
6. Choose the Best Course of Action –
4. Weigh the WANTs – Rate importance of each WANT on a scale of
10 to 1
Commit to the best choice by
5. Compare Alternatives – Assign and compare total scores for each
Alternative
verifying that each acceptable alternative
Meets all MUST requirements
and has maximal WANT score.
6. Choose the Best Course of Action – Commit to the best choice by
verifying that each acceptable alternative meets all MUST
requirements, and has maximal WANT score.
http://www.econ.state.or.us/ICsup1.pdf
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Decision Making
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Decision Making
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Decision Making
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Decision Making
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Decision Making
http://www.leanscm.com/courses/46/module3/sscm_01_backup/ktaMatrix.pdf
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http://www.centrum.pucp.edu.pe/excelencia/ensayos/ISO%2027001%20y%20el%20Manejo%20de%20la%20Acci%C3%B3n%20Correctiva.pdf
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