Louis Chan, CFA 陈少威 公司报告:新秀丽 (01910 HK) +852 2509 5310 louis.chan@gtjas.com.hk 24 March 2015 Solid Fundamental Pricing in, Downgrade to “Accumulate” 稳固的基本面正在价格上反映,下调至“收集” GTJA Research 国泰君安研究 Company Report: Samsonite (01910 HK) Accumulate Rating: Downgraded FY14 revenue increased by 15.4% YoY to US$2.35 bn, in line with our estimate and market consensus. However, net profit increased by 5.8% YoY to US$186 mn which was 8.9% and 10.9% lower than our estimate and market consensus due to higher than expected acquisition costs. North America continued to be the fastest growing market with a YoY increase of 22.5% in sales, driven by acquisitions. Gross margin decreased by 0.5 ppt YoY to 52.9% for FY14, in line. The drop in gross margin was mainly due to a higher sales contribution from North America, where a lower gross margin was yield due to the adoption of a wholesale model. The drop in gross margin was also partly explained by the acquisition of Speck brand. Downgrade to “Accumulate” but raise TP to HK$28.85. International tourist arrivals showed uninterrupted growth and persistent growth is expected. Though the Company has a high visibility for its medium term top-line growth and profitability, we downgrade the Company’s rating due to a rich valuation. We raise our TP to HK$28.85, representing 24.6x and 21.1x FY15 and FY16 PER respectively, to factor in increased industry valuation. 评级: 收集 (下调) 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$28.85 Revised from 原目标价: HK$27.68 Share price 股价: HK$26.700 Stock performance 股价表现 25.0 % of return 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 (5.0) Mar-14 May14 2014 年营收同比增加 15.4%至 至 23.5 亿美元, 亿美元,符合我们和市场预期。 符合我们和市场预期。然而,净利同比增长 Jul-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 HSI Index Samsonite 北美继续为增长最快的市场,由收购驱动,营收同比增长 22.5%。 Change in Share Price 股价变动 Abs. % 绝对变动 % Rel. % to HS index 相对恒指变动 % Avg. share price(HK$) 平均股价(港元) 2014 年毛利率同比下跌 0.5 个百分点至 52.9%, ,符合预期。 符合预期。毛利率的下跌主要是因为北美 销售贡献的提升,由于采用批发模型,该区域的毛利率较低。毛利率的下跌也部分反应了 新收购的 Speck 品牌。 降评级至“ 降评级至“收集” 收集”,但提升目标价至 28.85 港元。 港元。国际旅游人数呈不断增长之势,持续增长 1M 1 个月 3M 3 个月 1Y 1年 9.2 15.6 16.1 10.6 10.6 1.8 25.6 24.3 24.8 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan Int ernat ional. 可期。虽然公司在中期营收和收益有高可见度,但由于充实的估值,我们下调公司的评级。 我们上调目标价至每股 28.85 港元,分别相当于 24.6 倍和 21.1 倍 2015 年和 2016 年市盈 Samsonite 新秀丽 (01910 HK) 5.8%至 1.86 亿美元,分别比我们和市场预期低 8.9%和 10.9%,原因是收购费用高于预期。 Year End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 (US$ m) (US$ m) (US$) (△%) (x) (US$) (x) (US$) (%) (%) 2,038 176 0.125 18.6 27.5 0.848 4.1 0.057 1.7 15.7 FY14A 2,351 186 0.132 5.7 26.0 0.902 3.8 0.063 1.8 15.1 FY15F 2,644 213 0.151 14.4 22.8 0.991 3.5 0.076 2.2 16.0 FY16F 2,979 249 0.177 16.8 19.5 1.092 3.1 0.088 2.6 17.0 FY17F 3,289 289 0.205 15.9 16.8 1.208 2.8 0.102 3.0 17.8 年结 12/31 FY13A Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 1,408.2 37,600.0 4,340.8 28.050 / 21.900 Major shareholder 大股东 JPMorgan Chase & Co. 12.0% Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 95.1 FY15 Net gearing (%) 15 年净负债/股东资金 (%) Net Cash FY15 Est. NAV (HK$) FY15 每股估值(港元) 28.1 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 7 Company Report 率以反映行业估值的提升。 FY14 top-line met estimates. Samsonite (the “Company”)’s FY14 revenue increased by 15.4% YoY to US$2.35 bn, which was in line with our estimate and market consensus. However, net profit increased by 5.8% YoY to US$186 mn which was and Gregory brands were acquired in 2014 and have contributed to the sales growth. North America, though being a mature market, continued to be the fastest growing market with a YoY increase of 22.5% in sales, driven by acquisitions. Excluding acquisitions, sales increased by 7.3% on a constant currency basis. Asia continued to be the second fastest growing market with a YoY increase of 16.1% in sales, driven by American Tourister, Samsonite Orgional and Samsonite Red. The region 24 March 2015 8.9% and 10.9% lower than our estimate and market consensus due to higher than expected acquisition costs. Lipault, Speck continued to be the region contributing the largest sales, 38.0% of total sales. Sales in Europe increased by 8.3% YoY driven by accelerated American Tourister brand penetration in the region. Latin America was the slowest growing market with a YoY increase of 5.7% in sales due to continued import restrictions imposed by Argentina government and currency headwinds. Excluding Argentina, sales growth in Latin America was 20.0% on a constant currency basis. We reiterate optimism on the Company’s strategy of leveraging its global supply chain and global brand management experience to accelerate the geographical penetration of newly acquired and developed brands. Gross margin decreased by 0.5 ppt YoY to 52.9% for FY14. Gross margin was in line with our expectation and slightly higher than the market expectation. The drop in gross margin was mainly due to a higher sales contribution from North America, where a lower gross margin was yield due to the adoption of a wholesale model. The acquired Speck Products was also attributable to the drop in gross margin. Crude oil price slumped in 4Q14 and continued to be weak in 1Q15. However, as about 80% of the product manufacturing was outsourced and a multiple-layer structure of its supply chain, the drop in raw material price cannot match the crude oil decline and it would take several months to materialize the savings. Gross margin for FY15 is expected to be flat comparing to FY14. The plan of gradually shifting to more direct-to-consumer channels is a positive to the gross margin in the medium term. FY13 2,038 (949) 1,088 (670) (133) (4) 281 270 (73) 176 0.125 FY14 2,351 (1,107) 1,244 (771) (151) (22) 299 282 (77) 186 0.132 YoY 15.4% 16.6% 14.3% 15.1% 13.6% 436.3% 6.4% 4.5% 5.6% 5.8% 5.7% % of our estimation 100.4% 100.5% 100.2% 101.0% 100.8% 373.0% 93.0% 89.9% 90.8% 91.1% 91.1% Gross margin Operating margin Net margin 53.4% 13.8% 8.6% 52.9% 12.7% 7.9% -0.5 -1.1 -0.7 -0.1 -1.0 -0.8 % of the consensus 100.5% 100.9% 92.5% 89.1% 89.1% 87.6% Samsonite 新秀丽 (01910 HK) Table-1: 2014 Results Analysis US$ mn Turnover Cost of sales Gross profit Selling and distribution expenses Administrative expenses Other expenses Profit from operations Profit before taxation Income tax Profit attributable to equity shareholders Basic EPS (US$) (ppts) 0.2 -1.1 -1.0 Company Report Source: the Company, Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 7 Figure-1: Samsonite’s Revenue Growth 35.00% 3,000 30.00% 2,500 25.00% 2,000 20.00% 1,500 15.00% 1,000 10.00% 500 24 March 2015 US$ mn 3,500 5.00% 0 0.00% 2011A 2012A 2013A Revenue (LHS) 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F Revenue growth YoY (RHS) Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Table-2: Sales Contribution by Product Categories Net sales by product category 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 1,654,402 1,515,852 1,357,054 1,186,683 885,944 70% 74% 77% 76% 73% 252,069 205,871 109,743 81,849 112,213 11% 10% 6% 5% 9% 256,228 193,474 189,561 189,582 110,321 Travel % of sales Casual % of sales Business % of sales Accessories 11% 9% 11% 12% 9% 147,222 85,745 79,662 70,786 50,186 % of sales Other 6% 4% 4% 5% 4% 40,786 36,870 35,706 36,247 56,643 % of sales Net sales 2% 2% 2% 2% 5% 2,350,707 2,037,812 1,771,726 1,565,147 1,215,307 Source: the Company. Figure-2: Net Sales by Region, 2014 Figure-3: Net Sales by Region, 2013 5.6% 6.1% Asia Asia 23.7% 38.0% North America North America Europe Europe Latin America Latin America Corporate Corporate 32.4% 30.5% Source: the Company. Company Report Source: the Company. 37.7% 25.3% Samsonite 新秀丽 (01910 HK) (US$'000): See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 7 55% 16.0% 55% 14.0% 54% 12.0% 24 March 2015 Figure-4: Samsonite’s Profitability 10.0% 54% 8.0% 53% 6.0% 53% 4.0% 52% 2.0% 52% 0.0% 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015F 2016F 2017F Gross margin (LHS) Operating margin (RHS) Net margin (RHS) Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Well managed SG&A spending. Advertising spend as percentage of sales decrease slightly from 6.3% for FY13 to 6.2% for FY14. Overall SG&A as percentage of sales dropped slightly from 39.4% for FY13 to 39.2% for FY14. Effective tax rate up 0.3 ppt YoY to 27.3%. The increase in effective tax rate was mainly due to increased withholding taxes on dividend and royalty income. The management was confident to achieve a lower effective tax rate of around 26.0% for FY15. Stable dividend payment. A total of US$88.0 mn dividend payment was proposed, a YoY increase of 10.0%. The dividend payout ratio was 47.2% for FY14, comparing to 45.4% for FY13. The Company’s dividend policy was to maintain an approximately 50.0% of dividend payout ratio in the medium term. Table-3: Key Assumptions and Adjustments Total revenue Asia OLD CHANGE 2015F 2016F 2017F 2015F 2016F 2015F 2016F 2,644 2,979 3,289 2,666 3,002 -0.9% -0.8% 0.6% 1,010 1,145 1,275 1,011 1,139 -0.1% North America 886 1,010 1,142 868 981 2.1% 3.0% Europe 601 658 699 628 698 -4.3% -5.7% Latin America 138 157 166 152 177 -8.7% -11.1% 8 8 7 8 8 1.1% 1.1% 1,399 1,582 1,760 1,421 1,603 -1.6% -1.3% Operating profit 326 378 434 350 399 -7.0% -5.3% Net profit 213 249 289 224 256 -4.8% -2.9% 0.151 0.177 0.205 0.159 0.182 -4.8% Others Gross profit Basic EPS (US$) Samsonite 新秀丽 (01910 HK) NEW US$ mn -2.9% (ppts) Gross profit margin 52.9% 53.1% 53.5% 53.3% 53.4% (0.4) (0.3) Operating profit margin 12.3% 12.7% 13.2% 13.1% 13.3% (0.8) (0.6) % SG&A of total turnover 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 0.0 0.0 Effective tax rate 26.0% 26.0% 26.0% 27.0% 27.0% (1.0) (1.0) Net profit margin 8.1% 8.4% 8.8% 8.4% 8.5% (0.3) (0.2) Source: Guotai Junan International. Downgrade to “Accumulate” but raise TP to HK$28.85. International tourist arrivals showed uninterrupted growth and we downgrade the Company’s “Buy” rating to “Accumulate” due to recent outperformance against the market and a rich valuation. We raise our TP from HK$27.68 to HK$28.85, representing 24.6x and 21.1x FY15 and FY16 PER respectively, to factor in increased industry valuation. See the last page for disclaimer Page 4 of 7 Company Report persistent growth is expected. Though the Company has a high visibility for its medium term top-line growth and profitability, Company Stock Code Currency Luggage SAMSONITE 1910 HK TUMI TUMI US Simple Average Weighted Average Luxury Brands 1913 HK PRADA* LVMH MC FP CHRISTIAN CDI FP DIOR KERING KER FP MICHAEL KORS US KORS* BURBERRY BRBY LN COH US COACH* HUGO BOSS BOSS GY SALVATORE SFER IM FERRAGAMO TOD'S TOD IM Simple Average Weighted Average Sportswear NKE US NIKE* ADIDAS ADS GR UNDER UA US ARMOUR Simple Average Weighted Average Overall Simple Average Weighted Average Market Cap Last price HK$ mn PE(x) PB(x) D/Y(%) EV/ EBITDA(x) Gross Margin(%) Operating Margin(%) 14F 14F 14F 14F 14F 13A 14F 15F 16F 13A 14F 37,600 12,401 27.5 29.5 28.5 28.0 26.1 27.7 26.9 26.5 21.1 24.3 22.7 21.9 17.8 20.9 19.4 18.6 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.9 3.0 15.1 14.6 14.9 15.0 2.1 0.0 1.1 1.6 11.8 13.9 12.9 12.3 52.9 58.0 55.5 54.2 12.7 17.7 15.2 14.0 HKD EUR 51.40 131,524 165.55 705,536 31.1 24.1 33.1 14.7 29.5 21.1 26.0 19.2 5.6 3.1 5.4 3.9 4.8 3.2 4.4 3.0 16.7 23.2 1.5 2.4 11.9 9.3 73.8 64.7 26.2 19.6 EUR 173.25 262,529 21.7 21.7 16.9 15.6 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.3 12.4 2.1 6.9 65.8 19.5 EUR 191.00 202,458 18.8 45.5 17.7 15.8 2.3 2.3 2.1 1.9 5.0 2.5 13.4 62.7 15.5 USD 66.13 102,965 15.9 15.4 13.8 12.3 6.2 5.9 4.4 3.4 41.0 0.0 16.5 60.9 30.5 HKD USD 26.70 23.56 15F 16F ROE(%) GBp 1,843.00 USD 41.58 EUR 116.05 94,529 88,951 68,585 31.6 165.5 24.3 25.0 22.0 24.0 24.2 20.7 20.5 21.7 17.5 18.7 8.0 4.6 11.2 7.0 4.5 9.5 5.9 4.2 8.5 5.2 3.6 7.5 29.6 32.4 42.8 2.3 3.9 3.6 9.6 6.7 12.3 71.2 68.6 66.1 20.1 23.3 17.5 EUR 29.34 41,480 32.9 31.6 27.4 23.8 13.5 10.6 8.6 7.1 37.7 2.1 17.8 63.7 18.4 EUR 86.80 22,304 19.9 38.6 31.0 27.4 26.0 22.7 23.7 21.6 20.6 21.4 19.2 18.5 3.3 6.1 4.3 3.3 5.5 4.3 3.1 4.7 3.7 2.9 4.1 3.3 12.1 25.3 21.8 2.8 2.3 2.3 10.9 11.5 10.3 76.0 67.4 65.9 15.3 20.6 20.3 USD EUR 101.98 683,312 68.53 120,361 29.1 18.2 28.7 29.2 25.7 20.4 22.2 17.5 7.2 2.6 7.1 2.5 6.5 2.4 5.7 2.2 24.5 8.8 1.2 2.0 15.0 9.3 44.8 47.6 13.2 6.1 USD 81.43 136,076 52.9 83.1 74.2 56.8 8.2 12.9 13.1 10.8 17.3 0.0 33.4 49.0 11.5 33.4 31.2 47.0 36.7 40.1 32.0 32.2 26.6 6.0 6.7 7.5 7.3 7.3 6.9 6.3 6.0 16.9 21.5 1.1 1.1 19.2 17.0 47.1 45.8 10.3 12.1 26.5 24.0 28.9 23.0 24.9 21.8 21.0 18.9 5.1 4.8 5.1 4.7 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.7 20.1 20.0 1.5 1.8 14.9 13.2 56.3 58.8 15.7 17.1 24 March 2015 Table-4: Peer Comparison Company Report Samsonite 新秀丽 (01910 HK) Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. All forecasts are based on Bloomberg consensus. * Note: The financial year end dates of these companies are not 31st December. For easier comparison with peers, “13A” means “FY14A” and “14F” means FY15F and so on. See the last page for disclaimer Page 5 of 7 Financial Statements and Ratios FY15F FY16F FY17F Turnover 2,038 2,351 2,644 2,979 3,289 Cost of sales (949) (1,107) (1,245) (1,397) (1,530) Gross profit 1,088 1,244 1,399 1,582 1,760 As at Dec 31 (US$ mn) FY13A FY14A FY15F FY16F FY17F PP&E 155 Goodwill 214 178 211 243 276 270 270 270 270 Other intangible assets 663 767 757 747 737 67 81 77 74 68 1,100 1,296 1,315 1,334 1,351 Inventory 298 332 380 427 525 Others Distribution costs (541) (626) (693) (780) (862) Marketing expenses (129) (145) (196) (220) (243) Administrative & general expenses (137) (174) (185) (203) (221) 281 299 326 378 434 Trade and other receivables 246 291 322 363 404 Prepaid expenses and other assets Cash balance 65 72 72 72 72 225 140 233 312 438 Total current assets 835 835 1,007 1,173 1,440 Trade and bill payables 387 415 512 575 707 Operating profit Total non-current assets Net finance cost (11) (17) (8) (7) (4) Profit before tax 270 282 317 371 430 Income tax (73) (77) (83) (96) (112) Minority interest (21) (19) (22) (26) (30) Bank loans 14 65 46 32 22 Net profit 176 186 213 249 289 Current tax liabilities 46 61 61 61 61 Employee benefits 54 62 56 50 45 502 604 674 718 835 Non-controlling interest put options 53 58 58 58 58 Employee benefits EPS (US$) 0.125 0.132 0.151 0.177 0.205 YoY 18.6% 5.7% 14.4% 16.8% 15.9% DPS (US$) 0.057 0.063 0.076 0.088 0.102 Total current liabilities 33 50 45 40 36 Deferred tax liabilities & other liabilities 116 112 117 121 127 Total non-current liabilities 203 220 215 215 216 Minority interest Shareholders' equities 38 1,193 38 1,270 38 1,395 38 1,537 38 1,701 BPS (US$) 0.848 0.902 0.991 1.092 1.208 Cash Flow Statement Year end Dec (US$ mn) Financial Ratio FY13A FY14A FY15F FY16F FY17F Profit for the year 197 205 235 274 318 Depreciation and amortization 45 52 59 67 75 Others 61 85 71 86 103 Working capital change (48) (36) 17 (24) (8) Tax & interest paid (62) (76) (91) (103) (116) Operating cash flow 193 230 292 300 373 Purchase of PP&E FY13A FY14A FY15F FY16F FY17F Revenue growth (%) 15.0 15.4 12.5 12.7 10.4 Operating profit growth (%) 16.4 6.4 8.8 16.0 14.9 Net profit growth (%) 18.6 5.8 14.4 16.8 15.9 Gross margin (%) 53.4 52.9 52.9 53.1 53.5 Operating margin (%) 13.8 12.7 12.3 12.7 13.2 Net profit margin (%) 8.6 7.9 8.1 8.4 8.8 (57) (70) (82) (89) (99) Other investing activities 0 (197) 0 0 0 ROE (%) 15.7 15.1 16.0 17.0 17.8 Other proceeds 3 (1) 0 0 0 ROA (%) 9.4 9.2 9.6 10.3 10.9 Investing cash flow (54) (267) (82) (89) (99) Inventory turnover days 110.7 104.0 104.4 105.4 113.6 Dividend paid (38) (80) (88) (107) (124) Account receivable days 42.0 41.7 42.3 42.0 42.5 Other financing activities (27) 38 (29) (25) (23) Account payable days 144.1 132.3 135.9 141.9 152.9 Financing cash flow (65) (42) (117) (132) (147) Cash conversion cycle 8.5 13.3 10.8 5.5 3.2 Cash at beginning of year 151 225 140 233 312 Current ratio (x) 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 74 (79) 92 79 127 Payout ratio (%) 45.4 47.2 50.0 50.0 50.0 Net gearing (%) Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Change in cash and cash equivalent Cash balance at year end 225 140 233 312 438 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer Page 6 of 7 24 March 2015 Balance Sheet FY14A Samsonite 新秀丽 (01910 HK) FY13A Company Report Income Statement Year end Dec (US$ mn) Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Rating Definition Buy Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. 24 March 2015 Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Outperform Definition Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable. (1) (2) (3) (4) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. Except for Shandong Chenming Paper Holdings Limited-H shares (01812), China All Access (Holdings) Limited (00633), Guangshen Railway Company Limited-H share (00525), Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (01788) and Binhai Investment Company Limited (02886), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. Guotai Junan and its group companies have not had investment banking relationships with the issuer mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services and etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Samsonite 新秀丽 (01910 HK) DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. See the last page for disclaimer Company Report © 2015 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. 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