AP Statistics Final Project

advertisement
AP Statistics Final Project
For your final project in this class, you will complete a statistical project. The following
provides a definition and purpose of a statistical project:
DEFINTION AND PURPOSE
A statistical project is the process of answering a research question using
statistical techniques and presenting the work in a written report.
The research question may arise from any field of scientific endeavor, such as athletics,
advertising, aerodynamics, nutrition. It differs from a statistical poster in that a written
report is used to present the findings.
DATA-BASED PROBLEM SOLVING
The process of developing a statistical project should demonstrate the scientific method
of solving a problem:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Pose a focused question or questions.
Collect appropriate data.
Analyze the data intelligently.
Draw correct conclusions.
Since you are continually asking questions about things that touch your life, you should
have little trouble generating questions about yourself, your school, your family, your
neighborhood, or interesting phenomenon in the world.
SOME GUIDELINES
1. Once a question is proposed, you should examine it. First, is it a question that can
be answered? (“Is there intelligent life in the universe that does not come from
Earth?” is an extremely interesting question, but not one that is likely to be
answered in a short-term project.) Second, can you collect data to answer the
question? Or has someone else already collected data that can be used to find the
answer?
2. Once the question is chosen, data must be collected. If published data are used,
you should understand how they were obtained and record the source.
a. Usually students collect their own data. Time should be spent deciding
how to collect it. If a survey is used, how are the people chosen to answer
the questionnaire? If two treatments (treatments could be models, grades,
genders, etc.) are to be compared, how can comparisons be made fairly?
How will the data be recorded? After the details have been worked out,
then you are ready to collect the data. Great care should be exercised at
every stage of data collection. Remember that careless measurement or
recording of data CANNOT be remedied in the analysis phase of the
project.
3. Intelligent analysis of the data may take many forms and should be guided by the
question and how the data are collected. Usually it is best to begin by graphing
the data and reporting one or two variable statistics. Your project MUST
incorporate some form of HYPOTHESIS TESTING.
4. Once the analysis is complete the question should be answered correctly. The
data may not be able to provide a conclusive answer. For example, one treatment
may appear to be better than another, but the difference was not significant. If the
question has a definitive answer, then that should be presented. A check should
be made at this point to make certain that the answer matches the question. It is
easy to get “caught up” in the analysis phase and obtain many answers, none of
which addresses the research question.
5. Finally, consider the strengths and weaknesses of the project. What went right?
What went wrong? What would be changed if it was done again?
THE WRITTEN REPORT (adapted from George M Whitesides’ Article Writing a Paper)
Great latitude may be taken in developing the written report. You should plan how to
communicate your work effectively. The longest report does NOT necessarily represent
the best project. However, the report MUST adhere to the following outline:
1. Title page
2. Table of Contents with page numbers
3. Introduction
a. The objectives of the work.
b. The justification for these objectives: Why is the work important?
c. Background: Who else has done what? How? What have we done
previously?
d. Guidance to the reader: What should the reader watch for in the
paper? What are the interesting high points?
e. Summary/Conclusion: What should the reader expect as conclusion?
You should also include all the sections that will go in the Results and
Discussion Section.
4. Hypotheses in words and symbols
5. Data Collection Method
a. This should include technical terms we learned in class regarding your
study/experiment.
6. Results and Discussion
a. These are usually combined. This section should be organized
according to major topics. The separate parts should have subheadings
in boldface to make this organization clear, and to help the reader scan
through the final text to find the parts of interest. The following list
includes examples of phrases that might plausibly serve as section
headings:
i. Descriptive Statistics
ii. Conditions
iii. Inferential Statistics
1. Must convey intelligent reasons for the selected
statistical test/confidence interval
2. Must show calculations
3. Must have a graph with either test statistic or critical
value
7. Strengths and weakness of the entire project.
8. Appendix with data, graphs and/or tables
THE RUBRIC
•
Clearly written Introduction that addresses all of the above
•
10 8
Clearly stated null and alternative hypotheses both in words and symbols
10 8
6
4
2
6
4
2
Data Collection Method (How, Why, Who, What and any and all appropriate terms)
10 8 6 4
2
•
Clearly outlined Results and Discussion Section
2
•
Important and relative statistics presented/discussed under Descriptive Statistics subheading
10 8 6 4 2
•
All Conditions stated and verified
10
8
6
4
2
•
Describe the test of your hypothesis and show your calculations.
10
8
6
4
2
•
Make some conclusion about your hypothesis, using a confidence level.
10
8
6
4
2
•
Strengths/Weaknesses/What would you do differently next time?
10
8
6
4
2
•
Appendix
10
8
6
4
2
•
Data Included, appropriate graphs clearly titled /labeled, tables, charts
10
8
6
4
2
10
8
6
4
2
•
10
8
6
4
•
All DUE DATES met on time.
•
Grammatically correct; understandable English; no spelling mistakes/slang
20 15 10 5 0
•
Neatness, presentation (font size 12, single spaced, font type Arial),
organization (Title page and table of contents)
20 15 10 5 0
TOTAL POINTS: 160
DUE DATES:
Last Day of First Quarter
Draft #1 (Topic/Thoughts/Ideas/Outline)
Last Day of Second Quarter
Draft #2 (Commitment to Project Topic)
Last Day of Third Quarter
Draft #3 (Data in spreadsheet)
Last day for Seniors
Final Project Due (hard copy with rubric)
Download