Update Jan 2010
HUMAN RACE
In the 6 seconds it takes you to read this sentence, 24
13 people will be
added to tthe
e Earth’s
a t s popu
population.
at o
Before you’ve finished this letter, that number will reach 1000.
200
Within an hour 11,000.
By the day’s end …209,000
260,000. Before you go to
8726
bed two nights from now, the net growth in human numbers will be
enough to fill a city the size of San
Francisco.
~Reno
It took four million years for humanity to reach the 2 billion mark.
Only 30 years to add a third billion. And now we’re increasing by 95
75
million every single year.
No wonder they call it the human race.
Update Jan 2008
Source: Zero Population Growth 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 320, Washington, DC 20036
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s
c4HxPxNrZ0


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTznEIZRk
Lg&feature=channel
Who is Hans Rosling?
•1
Population growth
•212,907 per day
1AD 200 million
1ADilli
•8,871
per hour
1800- 1 billion
•2.5 per second
1930 – 2 billion
1999billion
•~1/2
the6 world’s
population is
under ti25l growth
E
Exponential
th
US



1 birth every 8 seconds
1 death every 12 second
1 migrant every 36 seconds
•2
Current Status
(2004/2006/2008/2010)
• World Population Size: 6.4/6.6/6.7/6.8
billion World Growth Rate: 1.14%
•6,700,000,000 * 0.0114= 75,000,000
•6,895,000,000 * 0.0114= 78, 603, 000
• ½ the world’s population is <25
• U.S. Population Size: 293/301/305/308/312
million
• Less developed countries ~150 of them, 80%
of the world’s population, use 20% resources
• Developed countries ~ 33 or them, 20% of
the world’s population, use 80% resources
Developing versus developed country






Low per capita food intake
High BR and infant mortality
Low life expectancy
Low per capita GNP
Low industrialization
Low energy use per capita
High illiteracy rates
•3
http://www.nationmaster.com/red/graph/ene_usa_per_perenergy-usage-per-person&b_map=1#
Factors that contribute to high population
growth rates in developing countries
• education (especially education of women);
• importance
p
of child labor;;
• Lack of social stature and employment opportunities for
women;
• infant mortality;
• average age of marriage;
• No social security or pension plan;
• availability of reliable birth control;
• availability of legal abortions;
• religious beliefs, traditions, & cultural norms that encourage
large families.
•4
Environmental impacts?
I=P*A*T
1. Developed countries


Per capita resource consumption and pollution are high
‘Rich enough’ to afford to be concerned about environment
2. Developed/Developing countries


economic growth
Resource exploitation
3. Developing countries




“Survival mode”
Their resources are limited
Political system is often corrupt
Large population increases, land degradation, extreme poverty
Population statistics

Demography






St d off population
Study
l ti structure
t t
and
d growth
th
Birth rate
Death rate
% annual growth
Immigration and emigration
Doubling time and exponential growth
•5
US example

BR= 14/1000
DR 8/1000
DR=
Growth rate?
0.6% actual is 1%

www census gov
www.census.gov



Calculating Population Change
Growth
rate
Death
rate
t
Emigration
g
rate
R % = ((b – d) + ((ii – e)) x 100
Birth
rate
Immigration
rate
Birth (b), Death (d), Immigration (i) and Emigration (e)
are calculated per 1000 people
•6
Change in Population Size
Change in Population Size
• 3 million added per year
~1 million immigrants
•Total
growth 1%
40% due to
immigration
•7
Population Increase in Mexico
•BR=20 DR=5 EMMIGRATION =4 GR=1.1%
•DOES THIS MAKE SENSE???
Emigration



Economic- Mexican to US
Political-African, Iraq
Environmental problems-lack of resources,
deterioration of agricultural lands, drought-Africa
•8
World population growth rate
•Worldwide 1.10%
Top 10 Countries
country
Population million
China
India
US
Indonesia
Brazil
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Nigeria
Russia
Japan
1330 ((0.6%))
1148 (1.6%)
304 (1%)
237
196
172
154
142 (2.0%)
140
127
#19 Iran 65 million
(0.8%)
# 41 Iraq 28 million
(2.6%)
France 0.4 %
Japan, Spain 0.1%
Germany 0.0 %
Rwanda 2.4%
Kenya 1.6%
•9
Total fertility rate versus Replacement
fertility rate





TFR- Average number of children a woman in
her reproductive years is expected to have in
her lifetime
U.S. = 2.1
Rwanda = 5.1
Avg. world wide = 2.6
Replacement Fertility Rate=2.1
Demographic Stages

Pre-industrial Stage



Transitional Stage



Lowered death rate
Rapid population growth
Industrial Stage



Birth and death rates high
Modest population growth
Birth rate decline
Population growth slow
Post Industrial Stage


Low birth and death rates
Population growth very slow
•10
Demographic Stages
Age Structure

The number and proportion of people at each
age in a population
•11
•Table 8.2 look
specific countries
Demographics
ofatSpecific
Countries
•12
Iran





Population 65.4 million
TFR 1.7
BR 17/1000
DR 6/1000
Emigration 3/1000
50 years ago
Growth
Rate 0.7%
New population policyeducation,
economic
Modest fertilityLateand
social
large
stagebenefits
of Shahofregime
Early
marriage,
high
infant
family
not
good
Resurgence
Islam
Need
large
gov of
sponsored
family
mortality
mortality,
high
fertility
fertility, high
population
l i planning
to sustain
i country
death rate
•13
South Africa
•
•
•
•
•
Population 44 million
TFR 2.2
BR 18/1000
DR 22/1000
Emigration/Immigration~0
Growth Rate -0.5%
What might hinder countries ability to
go through demographic transition?
•14
Changes in fertility rate in select
countries
Contraceptive Use Among Married
Women of Reproductive Age
•15
Reducing the Total Fertility Rate
Three major influences on total fertility rate
1. Cultural traditions
2. Social & economic status of women
3. Family planning
Environmental Resistance

Carrying Capacity (K)


Maximum # of individuals an environment can
support without degradation of the ability to support
future generations
Not static



Will decline as environment is degraded
Can change with climate change
Limiting factors set by the environment
environment-“environmental resistance”



Prevent indefinite reproduction
Unfavorable food, water, shelter, predation, etc.
Negative feedback
•16
Carrying capacity
An area is overpopulated when its long-term carrying capacity
is being degraded by its current occupants.
Should carrying capacity be defined with respect to quality of life?
population
overshoots
population
crashes
Reindeer on St. Matthew Island
Wh t is
What
i E
Earth’s
th’ carrying
i capacity?
it ?
carrying
capacity
Easter Island
•17
Easter Island

4 lessons




Humans overuse off resources
H
Great difficulty noticing that things are going
wrong-shrug off and adapt to
Declining resources can undermine the
organizational structures
Radical impoverishment and simplication leads to
extinction
Government Policies and Fertility- China


Largest population in the world
Controversial Family Planning Policy


1971- Chinese Government pursued birth control
seriously
1979- Incentives to promote later marriages and
one-child families


Medical
M
di l care, schooling
h li ffor child,
hild preferential
f
ti l h
housing,
i
retirement funds
Brought about rapid and drastic decrease in
fertility
•18
Government Policies and Fertility- China

Law – controversial and unpopular



Compromised
C
i d ffreedom
d
off choice
h i
Social pressure to abort a second child
Pressure to abort/kill female first child


More boys than
girls in China
Law more
relaxed in rural
China
•19
Government Policy and Fertility- India

Severe population pressure

1950- first
1950
fi t country
t with
ith government-sponsored
t
d
family planning


1976- introduced incentives and compulsory
sterilization


Did not work due to language/cultural barriers
Unpopular and failure
Recent years- government focused on education

Much more effective, but TFR still above replacement
level
Government Policy and Fertility- Mexico

Young age structure

Huge potential
H
t ti l for
f population
l ti growth:
th 33% off
population is under age 15


Positive growth momentum
1974- government imparted educational
reform, family planning, health care

V
Very
successful
f l
•20
Government Policy and Fertility- Europe
and Japan

Population concern



Proportion
P
ti elderly
ld l people
l iin
population is increasing
Due to low TFR
Decrease in population
could cause decrease
economic
i growth
th


Reduced work force
Support for elderly
U.S. Population Distribution
• 75% live in 350 metropolitan areas
(cities & towns with at least 50
50,000
000
people)
• almost 50% live in metropolitan areas
containing 1 million or more people
•21
Urbanization
Urbanization-movement of people from rural to urban areas
Urban Agglomeration
 Urbanized core region that consists of several adjunct cities or
megacities and their surrounding developed suburbs


United States Urban
Agglomerations
(Population of
50,000 or above)

Where is it occurring?
•22
Population and Urbanization

Half of the world’s population lives in urban
areas
Megacity –population>10million
•23
Environmental Problems in Urban Areas






Fragmentation
Industrial –brownfields
W t pollution
Water
ll ti
Excessive use of energy
 Traffic congested streets
 Buildup of airborne emissions due to cars and industry
Noise pollution
Urban heat island
 Local heat buildup in an area of high population
density
 Affect local air currents and weather conditions
 Contribute to buildup of pollutants- dust domes
Isolation from the resources that
support us
•24
Urban Advantages
• concentrated impact
• mass transportation feasible
• recycling economically feasible
• birth rates are lower
Urban Sprawl
• Expansive, rapid, and sometimes reckless, growth of
a greater metropolitan area
• Development out over large amounts of land
•25
Characteristics of sprawl- Exercise
25






Single-use zoning: physical separation of space used
for different activities

Low-density land use: puts long distances between
homes, stores, and jobs

Car dependent communities

Scale of development: typically involves larger houses,
wider roads and larger stores with expansive parking
lots

Homogeneity in design
Obesity
Air pollution
Lack of planning and government supported
transportation
Separation of rich and poor
Car loss of time
Car..loss
•26
NEMO

University of Nevada Cooperative Extension
Environmental Impacts of
Automobile
• largest source of air pollution
• 15% of global carbon dioxide emissions
• 2/3 of the oil used in U.S. & 1/3 of the
world’s total
• makes urban sprawl possible – in U.S.
more land devoted to cars than housing
• cars becoming more fuel efficient, but
people are driving more
•27
How to reduce incentives to sprawl



Minimize government expenditure on
infrastructure in outlying areas
Remove obstacles to reusing centrally loaned
properties or make it easier (credit, tax
breaks)
Make transportation costs reflect cost to
society


Make driving more expensive
Raise the price of parking
•28