Valuation (Chapter 8) Growing Perpetuity Year Cash Is a perpetual stream of Cash Flows. The first Cash Flow will start one period from now and will occur with the same periodicity. The Cash Flows will grow at a constant rate of g% 0 1 2 3 … T T+1 … C C(1+g)1 C(1+g)2 … C(1+g)T-1 C(1+g)T … What is the Present Value of this stream of Cash Flows if the interest rate is r%? The Sum of the Present Value of the Cash Flows in this Growing Perpetuity is just the Sum of a Geometric Series of rate (1+g)/(1+r). The Sum of such series is C/(r-g) For this Sum to work you need r>g. Why? Growing Annuity Is a stream of Cash Flows. The first Cash Flows occurs one period from now and the last will occur T periods from now and occur with constant periodicity. The Cash Flows grow at constant rate of g%. Year Cash 0 1 2 3 … T T+1 … C C(1+g)1 C(1+g)2 … C(1+g)T-1 0 … What is the Present Value of this stream of Cash Flows, if the interest rate is r%? Growing Annuity C * GArT%, g % T 1 1+ g =C* 1 − r − g 1 + r Delayed Annuity It’s a stream of Cash Flows that is just like an Annuity but starts t-periods later than a regular Annuity with T Cash Flows. Things to look out for: ◦ It starts at time t+1 ◦ It ends at time T+t-1 What is the Present Value of this stream of Cash Flows? This is how the Cash Flows look like Year 1 … t t+1 … T+t-1 T+t Cash Flow 0 … 0 C … C 0 PV(Delayed Annuity in t-periods)= PV(Annuity)/(1+r)t The Present Value is the Present Value of a regular Annuity, but Discounted t times more!!! This rule works also for a Perpetuity. Annuity Due This is the opposite of a Delayed Annuity. It is an Annuity that has its first Cash Flow today. So, it starts one period before than a regular Annuity, which means t=0, and ends at T-1. PV(Annuity Due)=PV(Annuity)*(1+r) The Present Value of an Annuity Due is the Present Value of a regular Annuity, only it is Compounded once. This rule also applies to a Perpetuity Intrinsic value of an asset Is the PRESENT VALUE of all the FUTURE INCOME that the owner will RECEIVE ∞ P=∑ t =1 Income in Period t (1+discount rate in period t ) t FINANCIAL ASSETS: Stocks, Bonds, Bank Loans, Lease Obligations REAL ASSETS: Tangible (estate, machinery, factories), Intangible (technical expertise, trademarks, patents) Bond A fixed obligation debt security, issued by governments, governmental agencies, municipalities and corporations. A promissory note that entitles its holder to a series of COUPON (interest) payments and the repayment of the FACE (or par) VALUE at MATURITY. Elements of a Bond FACE/PAR VALUE: The amount of money borrowed. Usually $1,000 per bond. COUPON: Specified dollar amount to be paid periodically (usually every six months) COUPON RATE: Stated Annual Rate of the Interest of the Bond MATURITY: The date of the last payment (the last coupon and the face value) Types of Bond PURE DISCOUNT BONDS: It promises only the re-payment of the FACE VALUE at MATURITY. AKA zero-coupon bonds, zeroes, deep discount bonds, or original issue discount bonds (OIDs) FV P= T (1 + r ) Treasury Bills and principal-only Treasury strips are good examples of zeroes. LEVEL COUPON BONDS: It promises COUPON payments in regular time intervals and the re-payment of the FACE VALUE at MATURITY. P = T C t =1 (1 + rt ) ∑ t + FV (1 + rT ) T When the interest rate is constant , the expression simplifies to FV P =C*A + T (1 + r ) T r CONSOLS: they represent perpetual COUPON paying Bonds. ∞ P=∑ t =1 C (1 + rt ) t If the interest rate is constant C P= r Yield To Maturity The yield to maturity is the required market interest rate on the bond, the interest rate at which the coupon payment is reinvested Bond prices and market interest rates move in opposite directions When coupon rate = YTM, price = par value When coupon rate > YTM, price > par value (premium bond) When coupon rate < YTM, price < par value (discount bond) Example 1 60 Example 1: 30-year maturity Bond, with 8% semi-annual coupons and $1,000 Face Value, has a YTM of 10%. What is the price of the Bond? $40 $1,000 + = $757.18 + $53.54 = $810.71 ∑ 60 t (1 + 0.05) t =1 (1 + 0.05) Example 2 Example 2: A Bond, currently selling for $950, has 10 years before it matures and a 7% semiannual coupon. What is its YTM? 20 $35 t =1 (1 + x ) ∑ t + $1, 000 (1 + x ) YTM x= 2 20 $950 = Solving by trial and error, x=3.86%. This is a 6-month interest rate YTM: 3.86%*2=7.72% Effective Annual Yield: (1+0.0386)2 -1=7.869% Return from a bond The return to a Bond, and generally to any financial asset, will have two components: ◦ Current Yield: The return coming from the Coupon payments generated by the Bond ◦ Capital Gain/Loss: The return coming from the difference in prices paid to buy and received when selling the Bond Return from a bond If you hold the Bond just for the time it pays a single coupon, the return to the Bond will be C P1 − P0 R= + P0 P0 Where C is the Coupon, P0 is the Price you paid to buy the Bond and P1 is the Price you received when you sold the Bond If you hold a Bond for a period of time that allows for receiving several Coupons, the total Holding Period Return depends on the rate of return you can earn by re-investing the Coupons. You have Re-Investment Risk!! The Yield to Maturity assumes you can reinvest the Coupons at the Yield to Maturity and you hold the Bond to Maturity. If this does not happen the return to the Bond is usually not the YTM Example You bought a Par Bond with a Coupon Rate of 8% and maturity of 10 years. Six months later, the Yield to Maturity of the Bond changed to 7% and you sold the Bond. What return did you get? Step 1: Calculate new price 19 $40 $1,000 $1,068.55 = ∑ + 19 t (1 + 0.035) t =1 (1 + 0.035) Calculate the Holding Period Return $40 + ($1,068.55 − $1,000 ) = 10,85% R= $1,000 The return was 10.85% (semi-annual rate) Practice Exercises (Chapter 8) Easy: 2,3 Intermediate: 13, 16,17 Challenge: 23,25