Estimating the Latin American Population
of London from Official Data Sources
Brian Linneker and Cathy McIlwaine
May 2011
Contents
Executive Summary
Introduction
Conceptual and Measurement Issues
- Census and Surveys
- Administration and Registration Systems
Working Definition of the Latin American Population
Estimates from Available Official Data Sets
- The Population Census 2001
- International Passenger Survey 2001-2008
- Latin American Migrant Flows to the UK
- Latin American Visitor Flows to the UK
- The Labour Force Survey – Annual Population Survey 2004-2008
-
London Latin Americans by Age, Sex, and Economic Activity
- DWP - National Insurance Registrations 2002-2008
- UK Border Agency Passenger Arrivals
- Home Office Asylum Data
Irregular Migrants
Estimating the Irregular Latin American Population of London
Methods of Estimation
-
Method 1: The Latin Irregular Population Based on Updating
the GLA Report
A – irregular estimate from total population proportion
B – irregular estimate from foreign born proportion
C – irregular estimate from non-EU foreign born
D – irregular estimate from Removals and Departures
E – irregular estimate directly from survey questionnaire
1
-
Method 2: Estimates Based on Total International Migration
Methods
TIM Type Estimate 1
TIM Type Estimate 2
Estimating the Second Generation Latin Americans in London
Fertility Rate Method
London School Pupil Data
Vital Statistics Method
Second Generation Estimate Validation
National Estimates
Conclusions
References
Acknowledgements
Annex - Technical References
A. APS 2008 Latin Sample Size and Confidence Intervals
B. International Passenger Survey - IPS 2000 – 2008
C. Annual Population Survey – APS 2004 – 2008
D. GLA Latin irregular method data requirements
2
Executive Summary
It is not possible to accurately determine the number of Latin Americans in
London from official data sources. This research explores what sources are
available in an attempt to derive a robust estimate based on certain
assumptions and constraints.
This report explores evidence from key official data sources in order to
estimate the Latin American population of London in 2008. The main official
datasets considered are the 2001 Population Census, the International
Passenger Survey (IPS), and the Labour Force Survey (LFS) - Annual
Population Census (APS).
Other administrative data sources from the Department of Work and Pensions
and the UK Border Agency are considered along with Home Office asylum
data and how they relate to estimations of the irregular Latin American
population of London.
Net migration has been the dominant component of UK population change
since 1998 and in 2004 comprised 65 percent of total population change.
The United Nations definition of a migrant is an individual whose country of
usual residence changes for a period of 12 months or more, and this definition
is used in this analysis.
The working definition of a UK Latin American uses 20 Spanish and
Portuguese speaking countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. These
are people with a country of birth in Mexico, Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, El
Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Columbia,
Uruguay, Venezuela, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Paraguay, Cuba and the
Dominican Republic.
The Population Census in the UK is undertaken every 10 years and provides
a somewhat blurred and out of data picture of the Latin American population
of London in 2001 of 31,211 Latin American born people.
The International Passenger Survey conducted each year is the only survey
measuring flows into and out of the UK. Migration is derived based on
nationality and intended length of stay being 12 months or more. Latin
American in-migration to the UK over the period 2001-2008 was 50,656, while
out-migration was 34,051. As a result net-migration flows to the UK between
2001 and 2008 cumulatively sum to 16,605.
Visitors undertaking trips of less than 12 months into the UK can also be
derived from the IPS survey and this is estimated to be 3.1 million between
2001 and 2008, including transit passenger trips. However, UK Border
agency passenger arrivals suggest this figure to be in the region of 2 million.
3
Not all migrants intending to stay for 12 months or more will actually do this
and these are known as migrant switchers. Also not all visitors will leave the
UK within 12 months and those that stay longer effectively become migrants.
These are known as visitor switchers. Population estimations are very
sensitive to the number of visitor switches within the irregular population.
The report considers a number of data sources and estimation methods.
The approach adopted from the various explorations of available data and
method focussed on a three- stage approach dividing the Latin American
population estimate into different components. First an official robust estimate
of the population from the APS, second, an estimate of the irregular
population consistent with the GLA London irregular population estimate, and
third, an estimate of the second generation.
Latin American Population Estimate
The Annual Population Survey is considered to be the most robust data
source available for estimating the official Latin American population of
London.
The project uses 2008 APS Special License Access data sets going back to
APS 2003. These were the latest consistent time series available when this
part of the project was undertaken and the weights used are for 2007-2008.
The 2008 date was also a common fit in conjunction with other data sets used
in estimation of irregulars and the second generation.
In 2009 the ONS undertook a re-weighting exercise on data sets back to
2006. The APS annual Jan-Dec 2009 set came out in late 2010 and the 2010
annual data set is not yet available, even though some quarterly ones are.
However, these later data were not consistent with earlier APS series back to
2003 data used in the project and were not used, but could be updated later.
The weights used are for 2007-2008 in the 2003-2008 series.
In addition the project method is consistent with irregular estimates derived for
2007 and projected forward to 2008 from the LSE / GLA study published in
2009. The method uses forward estimation and the use of later APS series
would involve more error in estimation.
The APS is based on a sample survey and even though rounding is not used
in this report the estimates are not thought to be accurate to below nearest
1000. This should be born in mind when reading the estimates, which could
be rounded to the nearest thousand.
The APS suggests the 2008 Latin American population of London to be
79,269 out of a total UK Latin American population of 130,186. London
contains 61 percent of the UK Latin American population by country of birth.
The largest proportions of Latin Americans in London come from Brazil,
followed by Colombia and Argentina.
4
The APS 2008 central estimate of 79,296 is drawn from a sample of Latin
Americans in London and has a 95 percent confidence interval coefficient of
variation of 11.6 percent. At the 95 percent confidence limits, the London
Latin population estimates are reasonably precise, but are less precise at
London borough level and at the level of nationality (as represented by
country of birth) within the Latin American population.
At London borough level it is more robust to consider the average APS Latin
American population over the period 2004 to 2008. This estimate suggests
the highest concentrations of Latin Americans are to be found in the boroughs
of Lambeth, Brent and Southwark.
The majority of the Latin American population of London have arrived within
the last 10 years, with 60 percent arriving since 2000. The Latin American
population of London increased by 34 percent between 2004 and 2008. In
2004 women comprised 56 percent of the population and men 44 percent. By
2008 the numbers of Latin American women and men had both increased,
with women comprising 50 percent of the Latin American population, with
increasing proportions of men arriving over the period 2004-2008.
Over the period 2004-2008 the population of Latin Americans in London is
getting younger. The 0-15 age group increased by 106 percent, and the16-29
age group increased by 50 percent. The over 60s age group increased by 39
percent, with the smallest increases in the middle aged group of 45-59 year
olds at 3 percent.
The majority of Latin Americans in London are in employment, and this
proportion has been increasing. The Latin American employment rate has
been increasing, rising from 57 percent in 2004 to 65 percent in 2008.
In 2008 some 30 percent of male employment was in routine and semi-routine
occupations and 26 percent in higher and lower managerial and professional
occupations. Some 27 percent of women’s employment was in routine
occupations and 24 percent in managerial and professional occupations.
The occupational structure of Latin employment in London has changed over
the period 2004 to 2008. Both men and women have increased their
employment in all occupations except lower supervisory and technical
occupations. For women the largest increase has been in the routine
occupations 94 percent, but employment has also been increasing in the
higher professional occupations (74 percent).
For men, small employers and own account workers only accounted for 3
percent of occupations in 2004, but by 2008 this had increased to 7 percent of
all occupations. This represents a 258 percent growth rate in small employers
and own account workers over the period. Men have also been increasing
their employment in semi-routine occupations (170 percent) and intermediate
occupations, with smaller growth rates in the higher managerial and
professional occupations (10 percent) over the period.
5
Nearly half of all UK Latin American National Insurance Number registrations
of 77,000 over the period 2002-2008 are for nationals from Brazil, followed by
Colombia and Mexico.
A major problem with official data sources is that they are not adjusted for the
irregular migrant populations of the UK. Irregular migrants are generally of
three different kinds. First, illegal entrants, such as those evading formal
controls or presenting false papers. Second, migrants remaining after a
permitted period, such as failed asylum seekers who stay in country,
‘overstayers’ who remain despite expired legal residence. Third, children born
to irregular migrants, though not migrants themselves, have no right to
remain. In 2001 it was estimated that 430,000 or 0.7 percent of the UK
population were irregular migrants (Woodbridge, 2005) and by 2007 this is
estimated to have risen to 618,000 with London containing the majority of
irregular migrants at 406,300 (GLA, 2009).
London Latin proportions of irregular migrants are difficult to estimate.
Published Home Office asylum data is not very useful for estimating Latin
American irregular migrants, as these data cannot be disaggregated by Latin
American nationality without large margins of error and are more suitable for
overall irregular estimation.
Estimates of ‘overstayers’ in the GLA (2009) irregular method are not being
directly estimated from any survey source, but only appear as a residual after
subtracting failed asylum seeker estimates. The overall size of the GLA
estimate is questionable, and the Latin survey data for this study suggests
there to be 19 percent of irregular migrants within the sample population.
The overall estimates of Latin American irregulars migrants are consistent
with the GLA (2009) irregular total and updated to 2008. An estimate of the
proportion of all irregulars who are likely to be Latin American is based on the
Latin American proportion of the foreign born population of London in 2008.
Irregular Estimate
The GLA study estimated that the irregular population in London in 2007 was
between 281,000 and 630,000, with a central estimate of 442,000. If this
estimate is updated to 2008 using the central estimate as a base, assuming
the same year to year growth from previous years, the irregular population in
London in 2008 could be estimated to be 477,500. To calculate the number of
irregular Latin Americans the proportion of the irregular population which
comes from Latin America needs to be estimated. There are several ways to
do this by applying the estimated share of Latin Americans to the LSE/GLA
estimate updated for 2008.
The first is to apply to the GLA estimate the proportion of Londoners who
come from Latin America as calculated from official figures such as the APS
(1%). A second option, was to take the irregular population born in the UK out
of the GLA estimate and apply to it the proportion of Latin Americans as a
share of the migrant population in London (foreign born 3.2%, Non-EU foreign
6
born 4.2%). Another option was to apply to the GLA figure the proportion of
Latin Americans as a share of the numbers of forced removals and voluntary
returns (12%), assuming that these figures reflect the composition of the UK’s
irregular population. The irregular estimates are highly sensitive to these
options and proportions.
To estimate the Latin American irregular population in London in 2008, the
share of Latin Americans as a proportion of all non-EU foreign-born people in
London was applied to the GLA updated estimate. Using this method a central
estimate of the number of irregular migrants from Latin America in London in
2008 was 17,100. This central estimate was validated as being near to the
survey proportion of irregulars (19%), applied to the 2008 APS total of 79,296,
giving a survey based estimate of 18,600 irregulars (assuming the APS total
contained no irregulars).
Second Generation Estimate
The live births to Latin American born mothers in the UK is probably the best
base stock data to estimate the second generation. However, the problem
with these data are that not all those born within London over the period
considered will remain in London. Assumptions need to be made concerning
the proportion of those born in London over the period that had subsequently
moved by 2008, either outside London and/or outside the UK. However, little
is known about the extent of this movement among the second generation
and different assumptions were made regarding this varying from zero to 20
percent out migration from London over the period. Table 2.9 estimates the
stock of second generation Latin Americans in London in 2008 assuming that
10% (central), 20% (lower) and 0% (upper) moved out of London after birth.
Due to lack of data for earlier years, those born before 1992 is estimated at
less than 100 per year from extrapolation of 2002-2008 data back to 1982,
and produces an estimate of those aged over 16 in 2008 to be approximately
1000. Again, a 10% and 20% rate of out movement from London is applied,
as not all will remain in London.
Estimates of London births to Latin American born mothers since 1990
suggest there to be a possible cumulative stock of 18,121 UK born members
of the Latin American community in London. However, not all these will have
remained in London (producing an over estimate). This figure also excludes
second-generation births before 1990, so could be regarded as an upper limit.
The 2008 London stock estimate of second generation Latin Americans has a
central estimate of 17,182 (lower 15,273 and upper 19,091) and assumes
10% of each cohort component of these births are no longer resident in
London.
Estimates of the Size of the Latin American Population in London
Estimates of the size of the Latin American population in London, which
include irregulars, and the second generation of Latin Americans born in the
UK, can be obtained by combining the three main estimate components.
7
First, the APS 2008 central estimate of 79,296 is drawn from a sample of
Latin Americans in London and has a 95 percent confidence interval variation
which is used to produce an estimate of the upper and lower limits around this
central estimate. It is also assumed irregulars have an incentive to remain
hidden and that the APS contains no irregulars in this estimate.
Second, the irregular Latin American migrants are derived as the share of
Latin Americans as a proportion of London’s Non EU foreign born applied to
the LSE’s central, lower and upper estimate of London’s irregular population,
updated for 2008 and excluding UK-born irregulars. Third, the second
generation Latin Americans are derived based on the number of live births to
Latin American mothers in London between 2002 and 2008, extrapolated
back to 1990, with an added component for before 1990 births. The central
estimate assumes 10% have left London or the UK, the upper estimate
assumed no migration, while the lower estimate assumes 20% migration from
London and the UK.
Table 1: Estimates of the size of the Latin American population in
London 2008
Estimate From Official Data
Latin American Population of London 2008
Total
1 Latin Population 2008
2 Latin Irregular Population 2008
3 Latin Second Generation 2008
Central
113,578
Lower
96,171
Upper
131,685
79,296
17,100
17,182
70,098
10,800
15,273
88,494
24,100
19,091
Notes
1 APS 2008 using 95% confidence interval for lower and upper estimates
2 APS 2008 Latin Share of Non EU Foreign Born 4.2% applied to updated GLA central, lower and upper irregular estimates
3 Second generation estimate from ONS vital stats, central assumes 10% movement out of London, upper 0%, lower 20%
Table 1 shows these estimates for 2008 combining the above three
components and gives a central estimate of the size of the 2008 Latin
American community in London of 113,578.
National Estimates
A less statistically robust estimate for the size of the Latin American
population as a whole was also derived. A London to UK shift share analysis
method was used based on the assumption that irregular and the second
generation estimates for London are in the same relative proportions as the
London to UK APS figures. This may overestimate the size of the UK Latin
American population as the London/UK proportions of irregulars and second
generation may differ from the overall London/UK APS population proportions.
Bearing in mind these caveats and acknowledging that the estimate cannot be
validated, the central estimate for the UK Latin American population in 2008
was 186,469 (see Table 1b). This suggests that 61% of the UK Latin
American population resides in London.
8
Table 1b: Estimates of the size of the Latin American population in the
UK 2008 based on London proportions
Latin American Population of UK 2008
Central
Lower
Upper
186,469
163,606
209,999
130,186
119,251
141,122
2 Latin American Irregular Population 2008
28,074
18,373
38,432
3 Latin American Second Generation 2008
28,209
25,982
30,445
Total
1 Latin American Population 2008
1. APS 2008 using 95% confidence interval for lower and upper estimates (8.4%)
2. Assumes irregulars are the same share as London proportion of UK APS 2008 estimates
3. Assumes second generation are the same share as London proportion of UK APS 2008 estimates
9
Introduction
This research attempts to estimate the 2008 Latin American population of
London and the extent to which it has been increasing over the last 10 years.
The report explores evidence from key official base data sources, problems
with them, and how they relate to differing estimation methods of the Latin
American population of London. The main official datasets considered here
are the 2001 Population Census, the International Passenger Survey (IPS),
which is the only survey measuring flows into and out of the UK, and the
Labour Force Survey (LFS) - Annual Population Census (APS). Together and
in combination with other administrative data sources, relating to the irregular
population of London, these sources are used to explore estimates of the
Latin American population of London.
New migrant populations are a key component of the socio-economic
composition of the UK and a key driver of the population and labour market
change in London. Population change in the UK is composed of both natural
change, which results from the relationship between births and deaths, and
net in-migration of overseas nationals. Net migration has been the dominant
component of UK population change since 1998 and in 2004 it comprised
65% of total population change (Rees and Bodin, 2006).
The increasing importance of international migration in driving demographic
change in London was the recent impetus for a review of methods of how
stocks and flows of new migrants in London could be estimated (Rees and
Bodin, 2006). This earlier work identified that although there were a number
of different sources of international migration data available in the UK,
“there is no common, integrated framework from which dataset are made
available and no evidence of alternative methods for providing robust
statistical estimates from them” (Rees and Bodin, 2006:2).
National Statistics use the Total International Migration (TIM) method to
produce statistics on long-term migrants. This is primarily based on data from
the International Passenger Survey, and modified from other survey sources
for visitor and migrant ‘switchers’, where people change their plans to stay /
leave from under 12 months to more than 12 months.
Conceptual and Measurement Issues
Visitors and migrants who enter and leave the UK do so for a number of
reasons and durations. Those that stay for less than 3 months are often
classed as ‘visitors’, those that stay for 3-12 months are classified as shortterm migrants, while those that stay for 12 months or more are classified as
long-term migrants (Rees and Boden, 2006).
All official UK migration data is focussed on long-term migrants where the
intended or reported length of stay is 12 months or more. The Office of
National Statistics (ONS) use the United Nations definition of a migrant as an
10
individual whose country of usual residence changes for a period of 12
months or more.
Migration is a complex phenomenon, often driven by both push and pull
factors. There are a variety of reasons migrants enter the UK, some to seek
work, to study, to join existing family members, and some seeking protection
from persecution. While most enter the UK legally, some enter illegally
presenting serious estimation problems from official data sources. In addition,
stocks and flows of migrants are affected by flows of ‘visitor switchers’ (people
entering the UK as visitors but staying for longer than 12 months), and
migrant switchers (long term migrants changing their minds and staying for
less than 12 months).
Census and Surveys
Migration is generally measured in two ways, either as transitions between
two points in time into or out of the UK, or as counts of flow movements
across UK borders.
Surveys can provide information on both migrant stocks and flows depending
on the questions asked and method of data collection. Point in time
measures are often regarded as stock measures, while those arriving in the
UK over a recent period, last year, 5 years or 10 years, where an interval is
reported are often regarded as flow measures. Flows over time have an
important influence on point in time stock levels.
Census and surveys, such as the population Census and the LFS, measure
migration as a transition from one point in time to another based on the
questions relating to country of birth and residency 12 months previously.
The IPS measures flows across the UK borders based on questions relating
to the period of intended stay.
The Labour Force survey can be used to derive estimates of migrant flows
and stock estimates in its larger incarnation as the Annual Population Survey,
and can be subject to validation from other data sources where possible. As
a household survey the LFS measures migration that has already occurred
while the IPS measures intention to migrate, which can be subject to
problems of bias in the translation of intentions into reality, as in visitor and
migrant switcher cases (Rendall et al, 2003).
In a 2001 UK in-migration comparison between estimates from the population
Census, LFS and IPS, the LFS was found to underestimate the Census based
value by 26% and the IPS estimate was 10% lower than the Census value.
However, the LFS was shown to provide the better spatial estimate for large
geographical areas such as England, London, Rest of England, Scotland and
Wales, while the IPS over estimates the proportion going to London and
England, as most of the ports of entry are in London (Rendall et al. 2003).
The LFS annual in-migrant flow sample is approximately 600 individuals. As
with the Census, LFS in-migration flow estimate is based the place of
11
residence one year before, years of residence in UK, nationality and country
of birth. However, there is little research comparing the Census stock
estimate for migrant groups with the LFS stock estimates even for 2001, even
though this can also be derived from the survey. One problem is that the
base line to which estimates are being compared is the 2001 Census which
takes place only every 10 years, and in itself can be a problem when
estimating Latin populations and overseas nationals, as there are often
serious undercounts of these populations (Woodbridge, 2005).
Rees and Bodin (2003) report the need to explore the scope of using the LFS
– APS to derive migrant stock profiles at London Borough level, and this is
undertaken in this study. Age-sex profiles can be further applied to these
estimates using migrant profiles from the LFS – APS.
Administration and Registration Systems
In the absence of formal population registration systems in the UK, there are a
number of administrative systems that provide information on migrant activity,
such as those of the Home Office, Department of Work and Pensions - DWP,
National Health Service – NHS and the Department for Education and Skills.
These typically record events or moves but only record in-migration to the UK,
as data on those leaving the UK are not collected by these systems, although
the LFS is also undertaken within the wider EU, and could be used to pick up
UK out migrants to the rest of Europe.
Working Definition of the Latin American Population
It is not obvious what the definition of the Latin American population of
London is. A definition could comprise migrants and second-generation
nationals. Even if definitional clarity can be obtained, data coding and
classifications vary between data sets, and over time within the same data
set, which can further compound estimation problems regarding any working
definition.
As a working definition of Latin Americans in the UK they generally comprise
Spanish or Portuguese first language speakers from the Central and South
American geographical regions. However, there are also non-Spanish and
Portuguese speaking countries in this region such as Guyana (British
speaking) and Surinam (Dutch speaking), and some Caribbean Islands which
speak Spanish which could also be included such as Cuba and the Dominican
Republic (DR).
There are some 20 main Spanish and Portuguese speaking countries in Latin
America and the Caribbean and these are listed below.
The working definition used here where possible uses these 20 Spanish and
Portuguese speaking countries of Latin America and the Caribbean listed in
the table 1 and excludes Guyana, Surinam, French Guiana, Haiti, Jamaica
and the other Caribbean Islands. The geographical areas this corresponds
12
too are generally Central and South America excluding Guyana and Surinam
(Dutch Guiana).
Table 1 Working Definition of Latin American
Mexico
Honduras
Costa Rica
Guatemala Belize
El Salvador Nicaragua
Panama
Argentina
Columbia
Bolivia
Paraguay
Brazil
Uruguay
Peru
Cuba
Dominican Republic
Chile
Venezuela
Ecuador
Estimation of the working definition is made more difficult from official data
sources as often countries are combined into group categories making
precise separation and aggregation into the Latin American working definition
difficult, as with the case of evidence from the Census and APS (see below
and Annex).
Country of birth, and nationality is used by LFS and APS. However, the
geocoding for earlier years of the LFS-APS has, for example, a code of 55
which includes Dutch and French Guiana with Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru, so
separation may be difficult from LFS-APS for some earlier years. The Census
has more country detail but this is currently unavailable except as specially
commissioned tables from ONS. This has been partly undertaken by the GLA
and estimates from the 2001 Census use this GLA data source (GLA, 2005).
A person’s nationality is that which is shown on their passport. However,
nationality can change over time as foreign nationals who have lived in the UK
long enough can apply for British Nationality. In contrast country of birth can
differ from nationality and a persons country of birth cannot vary and is often
regarded as a more robust variable when analysis of change over time is
undertaken (ONS 2009). This analysis where possible uses country of birth,
but tables based on nationality are produced from the IPS as country of birth
is not available.
Estimates from Available Official Data Sets
This section looks at the data set evidence that can be used to estimate the
Latin American population of the UK and London. Summary tables are
presented along with a discussion of problems associated with the estimates.
13
The Population Census 2001
The Population Census in the UK is under taken every 10 years and provides
a somewhat blurred and out of date snap shot of the stock of Latin American
population of England and Wales and that of London.
Evidence from the 2001 Census commissioned by the GLA (2005) suggests
the Latin American population of London to have been 31,411 and of England
and Wales to have been 58,411. The London total represents approximately
53 percent of the total Latin population, with 18,062 being women and 3,313
under 16 years of age. In London Colombians form the largest single Latin
American population group 9,035 in 2001, while nationally Brazilians formed
the largest group at 14,555.
Table 2: Census 2001 Latin American Population of London
Country of Birth
England &
Wales
All
Greater London
All
<16
16-64
65+ % London % Women
Women
All Countries
52,041,921 7,172,101 1,448,243 4,832,270 891,588
13.8
UK Born
47,398,830 5,229,187 1,303,129 3,258,178 667,880
11.0
51 2,666,885
41.8
53.3 1,035,573
18,062
Not UK Born
Latin America
4,643,091 1,942,914
145,114 1,574,092 223,708
51.6 3,700,804
58,411
31,211
3,313
26,677
1,181
53.4
Argentina
6,371
2,557
119
2,162
276
40.1
56.9
Bolivia
1,076
527
54
448
25
49.0
55.4
292
Brazil
14,555
8,162
577
7,395
190
56.1
58.6
4,783
Chile
1,455
4,720
2,054
164
1,703
187
43.5
55.3
1,136
12,039
9,035
1,212
7,663
160
75.0
58.7
5,304
Cuba
1,043
536
41
398
97
51.4
50
268
Ecuador
2,964
2,301
563
1,703
35
77.6
54.2
1,247
Mexico
4,746
1,595
129
1,427
39
33.6
57.9
924
Peru
3,784
1,738
124
1,550
64
45.9
63.7
1,107
923
370
21
327
22
40.1
54.9
203
3,725
1,551
178
1,302
31
41.6
55.5
861
1,427
441
102
325
14
30.9
62.8
277
1,038
344
note: figures exclude Paraguay, Belize and DR
29
274
41
33.1
59.9
206
Colombia
Uruguay
Venezuela
El Salvador, Guatemala,
Honduras
Panama, Nicaragua,
Costa Rica
Source, GLA 2005
The figures exclude persons whose country of birth is Paraguay and Belize
since the GLA figures include Paraguay in an ‘all other countries’ category.
The figures also exclude the persons from the DR, but are the closest match
to the working definition used here that can be obtained from the GLA data in
its present form.
14
The 2001 Census was undertaken in April 2001 and is a highly detailed study
which has been used to compare LFS and IPS estimates against (Rendall et
al. 2003). However, while the census is adjusted for undercounts generally, it
is not adjusted for the foreign born migrant population, either regular or
irregular. In addition, the main draw back with using the Census figures on
the Latin American population of London are that the figures only relate to
2001 stocks and are out of date.
International Passenger Survey - IPS
The IPS data can be used to estimate the total Latin American net migration
per year, which depending on the net annual flow will affect the stock of Latin
American population since 2001.
The IPS is a quarterly sample of individual respondents undertaking an
international trip into or out of the UK. Migration is estimated based on the
question of the intension to stay for a specified period. It is the only source of
data on in and out migration to and from the UK, but has a small sample size
of 3100 observations per year. The 95% confidence interval for the IPS
survey is +/- 2.9% for overseas arrivals, and +/- 1.3% for UK residents.
The value of IPS deteriorates with increasing spatial scale, but has data
geocoded by government office region. The sampling frame is based on UK
entry and exit ports and London is over represented due to the importance of
Heathrow and Gatwick in the survey.
The sample is weighted based on passenger movement statistics produced
by BAA and CAA for air traffic and the Department of Transport for sea traffic
and allowances are made for transit passengers not passing through the
passport control which is the IPS counting line.
The IPS questionnaire first establishes nationality from passport control at air
or sea port, then those who are overseas residents and those who are UK
residents, based on the country in which the person was living for the last 12
months.
The international migration definition is a person changing country of usual
residence for a period of 12 months or more. In terms of Latin American
migration, the survey data can be used to estimate Latin American IN
migration, and OUT migration, in order to estimate annual Latin American
NET migration.
In migration can be estimated from the data by deriving the overseas
residents arrivals by air and by sea (including the channel tunnel) of Latin
American nationals who intend to stay for 12 months or more. Out migration
can be derived from departures of Latin American UK residents who intend to
live outside the UK for 12 months or more.
Over the period 2001 to 2008 Latin American in-migration was cumulatively
50,656 according to this source and was nearly as big as the 2001 resident
15
Latin American population for England and Wales given in the Census.
However, out migration of Latin American UK residents was approximately
34,051, giving a cumulative net migration into the UK by Latin American
nationals of approximately 16,605. These data are shown in the graph and
table below. The data in the graph below are weighted but unadjusted for
visitor and migrant switchers.
According to this evidence the largest nationality group of Latin American net
migrants into the UK over the 2001-2008 period are from Colombia 4,968,
followed by Mexico 4,273 and Brazil 2,775. The greater numbers of in
migrants and out migrants are from Brazil, followed by Colombia.
Figure 1 Latin American Net Migration 2000-2008
Table 3: Latin American UK International Migration Flows 2001-2008
Nationality
Cuba
Dominican Republic
Belize
Argentina
Brazil
IN MIG OUT MIG NET MIG
1,029
0
1,029
258
936
-678
0
0
0
3,176
2,545
631
19,618
16,842
2,775
Mexico
7,568
3,295
4,273
Bolivia
975
333
643
Chile
2,233
2,691
-458
Colombia
8,570
3,602
4,968
Ecuador
1,817
1,135
682
Paraguay
333
0
333
Peru
998
953
45
16
Uruguay
81
0
81
Venezuela
2,985
1,480
1,504
Costa Rica
142
0
142
El Salvador
296
238
58
Guatemala
352
0
352
Honduras
39
0
39
Nicaragua
0
0
0
186
0
186
50,656
34,051
16,605
Panama
Latin America
Notes: Source IPS
Includes air, sea, tunnel arrivals and departures
In Migration = Intends to stay for > 12 months
Out Migration = Intends to Stay for > 12 months
sample size is approx 30,00 per year
weighted by final weight to represent all IPS passenger
trips
Latin American Visitor Flows to the UK
Visitor trips are flows of trips to and from the UK by Latin Americans that are
for less than 12 months, and mainly consist of tourists and short-term
migrants. The table below shows evidence of Latin American IN visitor flows
and OUT flows of Latin American nationals resident in the UK from the IPS
2001-2008. These are not migrants as such but a proportion may
subsequently become migrants if they ‘overstay’. Estimates of the Latin
American population are likely to be highly sensitive to these overstay
proportions.
Table 4 Latin American Visitor Trips into and out the UK 2001-2008
2001-2008
IN Visits
OUT Visits
Nationality
Cuba
34,222
8,306
Dominican Republic
15,593
1,104
5,623
3,516
Belize
Argentina
361,042
64,437
1,103,693
309,873
Mexico
819,552
123,634
Bolivia
39,226
17,085
Chile
151,502
47,815
Colombia
201,103
72,375
Ecuador
29,363
19,461
Paraguay
6,431
3,077
Peru
51,350
16,927
Uruguay
37,383
3,076
Venezuela
158,292
37,769
Costa Rica
27,054
4,725
El Salvador
17,838
2,635
Guatemala
18,409
2,338
Honduras
14,159
2,520
Brazil
17
Nicaragua
Panama
Latin America
5,006
1,679
13,681
6,813
3,110,522
749,164
Notes: Source IPS
Includes air, sea, tunnel arrivals and departures
In Visits = Intends to stay for < 12 months
Out Visits = Intends to stay for < 12 months
sample size is approx 30,00 per year
weighted by final weight to represent all
passenger trips
Over the period 2001-2008 Visitor inflows by Latin American nationals into the
UK were just over 3.1 million trips, the largest proportion coming from Brazil,
followed by Mexico and Colombia. Visitor inflows have been increasing over
the period from 281,000 in 2002 to 551,000 by 2008 (see annex).
Over the same period visitor out flows of Latin American nationals resident in
the UK were approximately 749,000, with again Brazil, Mexico and Colombian
nationals having higher proportions. Visitor outflows have also been
increasing over the period from 73,000 in 2002 to 119,000 by 2008.
The IPS is the only UK survey measuring flows into and out of the UK. The
trips counted refer to visits rather than visitors and the same individual can be
counted twice if undertaking 2 trips in the 3 month period, although the extent
of double counting is unknown from this data source.
There are also estimation problems associated with net migration since it is
based on the question of intended length of stay. Not all migrants intending to
stay for 12 months or more will actually do this. These are known as migrant
switchers. Also not all visitors will leave the UK within 12 months and those
that stay longer effectively become migrants. These are known as visitor
switchers.
Visitor Switchers: It has been suggested by ONS (2008) that between July
and December 2007 the estimated number of visitors who switched to
become migrants was 13% for IN flows of non-EEA citizens and 11% for OUT
flows of non-EEA citizens, and EEA citizens to non-EU countries (ONS,
2008).
Migrant Switchers: In the July to December 2007 period migrant switcher
proportions are reported by ONS to be 4.2% for inflow and 3.9% for outflow.
The method estimates visitor switchers from the count of respondents who
state their intension of being ‘long-stay’ visitors (6-11 months) and ‘don’t
knows possibly 12 months’. For non-EEA respondent in flows, 25% of longstay visitors and 75% of ‘don’t knows are classed as switchers.
18
For outflows, 25% and 75% parameters are used for both EEA and non-EEA
people travelling to non-EU countries, and 50% of ‘don’t knows’ are used for
EEA citizens travelling to EU countries (Rees and Bodin, 2006:23).
TIM methods attempt to adjust for these switchers along with asylum seekers,
and these are explored within the methods of estimation section.
The Labour Force Survey – Annual Population Survey
The Local Labour Force Survey is a quarterly sample survey and the spring
quarter contains migration questions. The Local LFS has information at Local
Authority District Level and can be used in estimation of both sock and
migration flows of Latin Americans in the UK.
The Annual Population Survey (APS) is an ONS major survey series, which
aims to provide data that can produce reliable estimates at local authority
level of population. It comprises key variables from the Labour Force Survey
(LFS) and combines results from five different sources: the LFS (waves 1 and
5); the English Local Labour Force Survey (LLFS), the Welsh Labour Force
Survey (WLFS), the Scottish Labour Force Survey (SLFS) and the Annual
Population Survey Boost Sample.
The APS aims to provide enhanced annual data for England, covering a
target sample of at least 510 economically active persons for each Unitary
Authority (UA)/Local Authority District (LAD) and at least 450 in each Greater
London Borough. In combination with local LFS boost samples such as the
WLFS and SLFS, the survey provides estimates for a range of indicators.
This analysis uses the Special Licence version which contains more detailed
geographical, industry, occupation, health and age variables.
APS data sets are produced quarterly and contain 12 months of data referring
to approximately 360,000 persons per dataset. The sample is weighted by
application of a person weight to each sample record to reflect the wider
population, but the extent to which this is adjusted for foreign-born population
is unclear.
The table below shows estimates of Latin Americans by country of birth living
and working in the UK and London, and by individual London borough.
These data estimate the 2008 Latin American population of London to be
79,269 out of a total UK Latin American population of 130,186. London
contains 61 percent of the UK Latin American population by country of birth.
At the 95% confidence limits, the UK and London Latin population estimates
are reasonably precise (see annex).
The Latin American population of London has continued to rise between 2004
and 2008 despite down turns in estimated numbers in 2007, although this
may be related to the coding bias prior to 2007 (see annex).
The 2008 Latin American population estimates for London show Brent to have
the highest population at 10,470, followed by Kensington and Chelsea 6,156
19
and Westminster 5,310. Between 2004 and 2006 Lambeth had the highest
estimated Latin American population, followed by Southwark (with the
exception of 2005). However, this source also shows estimates for Bexley
and Redbridge as having no Latin population in 2008, this is related to the fact
that no Latin population was sampled in these boroughs. The 2008 borough
estimates need to be treated with extreme caution as the Latin sample size is
very small in some boroughs, making these estimates less than precise (see
Annex).
At borough level it may be more useful to consider the average Latin
American population over the period 2004 to 2008 for a more robust estimate.
This puts Lambeth as the highest (6,209) followed by Brent and Southwark.
There is some evidence that the LFS under-estimates non-EEA citizens by 15
to 20%, but geographical estimation of the distribution of in migrant population
from the APS is thought to be better than that from the IPS (Rendall et. al,
2003).
Table 5: APS Latin American Population Estimates for London and the
UK 2004-2008
Area
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008 Average 2004-2008 Share of Average
2004-2008
UK
London
100,089 108,946 125,993 123,018 130,186
58,958 68,351 70,652
71,762 79,296
100
City of London
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.0
Barking and Dagenham
0
945
638
676
631
578
0.8
Barnet
4,031
2,163
2,771
2,657
4,824
3,289
4.7
Bexley
0
291
739
244
0
255
0.4
2,782
4,894
3,120
9,538 10,470
6,161
8.8
Bromley
345
1,473
561
489
2,039
981
1.4
Camden
2,958
3,205
6,606
3,173
4,643
4,117
5.9
Croydon
993
1,921
2,046
573
1,089
1,324
1.9
Ealing
315
1,517
2,293
1,096
1,128
1,270
1.8
Enfield
907
999
0
0
274
436
0.6
Greenwich
198
1,485
1,091
1,029
592
879
1.3
Hackney
3,255
3,625
2,894
3,386
1,592
2,950
4.2
Hammersmith and Fulham
2,453
3,672
1,835
1,921
1,017
2,180
3.1
Haringey
2,463
2,239
2,636
1,990
1,778
2,221
3.2
Harrow
0
320
314
277
261
234
0.3
Havering
0
0
674
0
295
194
0.3
Hillingdon
291
0
268
0
231
158
0.2
Hounslow
173
1,867
452
537
1,148
835
1.2
Islington
1,856
2,983
2,289
4,015
4,540
3,137
4.5
Kensington and Chelsea
3,061
3,544
3,397
5,420
6,156
4,316
6.2
Kingston upon Thames
1,113
651
1,232
806
521
865
1.2
Lambeth
7,630
6,150
6,885
5,581
4,800
6,209
8.9
Lewisham
1,645
5,617
4,147
2,421
2,243
3,215
4.6
Merton
2,662
2,231
711
1,389
1,256
1,650
2.4
Newham
1,849
846
4,211
4,098
4,028
3,006
4.3
812
305
343
340
0
360
0.5
3,166
1,938
1,847
2,100
1,938
2,198
3.1
Brent
Redbridge
Richmond upon Thames
20
Southwark
4,376
2,971
7,407
4,822
4,819
4,879
7.0
Sutton
616
440
924
1,011
948
788
1.1
Tower Hamlets
831
1,267
332
3,877
3,942
2,050
2.9
Waltham Forest
2,457
2,583
1,232
2,596
1,624
2,098
3.0
Wandsworth
1,740
2,563
2,557
1,941
5,159
2,792
4.0
Westminster
3,980
3,646
4,200
3,759
5,310
4,179
6.0
Note
Table based on Latin American Country of Birth
2004, 2005, 2006 includes population from the Other Caribbean
Source: Annual Population Survey
Figure 2 APS estimate of the 2008 Latin American Population of London
by Borough
The APS 2008 is the most up to date survey available for Latin American
population estimation. The detailed geographical level of the survey mean it
can also be used for direct local authority population estimation, but
estimation of the Latin population at borough level is more difficult.
However, care must be taken in comparisons over time with APS estimates of
Latin Americans in London since estimates of Latin American nationals varies
over time due to changes in coding groups used. Both in 2008 and 2007
nationality and country of birth codes are by individual countries while those
for 2004, 2005 and 2006 groups of countries are used such as ‘other Central
American, other South American, and other Caribbean’. Figures for these
years compared to 2007, 2008 are slightly larger since nationals from the DR
are included in the Other Caribbean code which includes all other Caribbean
countries except Barbados, Cuba, Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago, and the West
Indies.
21
The most up to date and robust official estimates of Latin Americans in
London can be obtained form the 2007 and 2008 APS years, but care must
be taken in boroughs where zero population are recorded.
Likewise the 2008 Latin population of London as estimated from the APS
2008 suggest the largest Latin nationality group to be from Brazil followed by
Colombia and Argentina, and the magnitude of these proportions are also
reflected at UK level.
Table 6 Latin American Population by Country of Birth 2008
Latin American Population of London and UK by Country of Birth 2007-2008
London
All Latin Americans
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Belize
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Cuba
Dominican Republic
UK
2007
2008
2007
2008
71,762
79,296
4,683
5,224
11,936
718
664
991
1,449
33,420
41,380
45,074
53,042
123,018 130,186
11,696
168
0
1,188
871
1,298
1,907
5,107
5,893
17,934
15,271
26,939
24,040
181
219
210
252
1,286
1,489
1,872
1,946
631
1,243
706
1,680
2,331
4,557
2,969
5,959
El Salvador
539
1,046
1,081
1,127
Guatemala
0
0
98
0
Honduras
0
0
0
0
1,035
1,054
6,099
7,112
Ecuador
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
Central America Not otherwise specified
South America Not otherwise specified
0
0
0
0
232
259
1,495
854
0
0
538
755
454
833
1,229
2,804
244
500
794
1,298
1,371
1,116
5,116
4,342
0
0
1,188
523
5,237
2,534
8,388
4,543
Source APS 2007 and 2008
However, care must be taken in use of these data as some countries such as
Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala have zero or near zero sample
representation.
The 95% confidence limits for the 2008 nationality estimates suggest them to
be not very precise in comparison with the overall Latin population estimate.
To base any sample population grossing weight on the nationality distribution
estimated from the APS 2008 alone would not be very robust (see annex A).
22
London Latin Americans by Arrival, Age, Sex, and Economic Activity
The APS 2008 suggests that some 57 percent of Latin Americans in the UK
arrived after 2000, while 79 percent arrived after 1990. In London some 60
percent of Latin Americans arrived after 2000 and 87 percent after 1990. This
suggests the majority of the Latin American population of London have arrived
within the last 10 years.
Table 7 Latin American UK Population by Year of Arrival in UK
Year of arrival to UK
UK Latin Americans 2008 Percent
1913-1939
London Latin Americans 2008 Percent
1,082
1
158
0
1940-1949
981
1
375
0
1950-1959
2,618
2
798
1
1960-1969
4,460
3
2,434
3
1970-1979
7,043
5
1,779
2
1980-1989
11,365
9
4,749
6
1990-1999
28,016
22
21,569
27
2000-2008
73,716
57
46,819
60
129,281
100
78,681
100
Total
Note: APS 2008 missing years of arrival for some entries
does not sum to 2008 UK and London total
Figure 3 Year of Arrival in the UK
23
Evidence from the APS 2004 suggests that women comprised 56 percent of
the Latin American population of London and men 44 percent. By 2008 the
numbers of women and men had both increased, with women comprising a
lower 50% of the Latin American population, with increasing proportions of
men over the period. This is shown in figure 3.
Fig 4 - London Latin Americans by Sex
The overall age profile of Latin Americans in London is shown in Figure 4.
The Latin American population of London increased by 34% between 2004
and 2008 (table 6). While there have been increases in population across all
age groups the largest increases are in the younger age groups. On average
the increasing population of Latin Americans in London is getting younger.
The 0-15 age group increased by 106%, and the16-29 age group increased
by 50%. The over 60s age group increased by 39%, with the smallest
increases in the middle aged group of 45-59 year olds (3%).
Table 8 - Age Structure of Latin American Population of London
Age
0-15
16-29
30-44
45-59
60+
2004
2,904
19,582
25,183
9,436
1,853
2008 % Change
5,969
106
29,335
50
31,699
26
9,716
3
2,577
39
ALL
58,958
79,296
34
24
Fig 5 – London Latin American Age Profile
Analysis of Latin American economic activity in London from the APS
between 2004 and 2008 suggests the majority of Latin Americans to be in
employment, and this proportion has been increasing over the period. Latin
Americans have an increasing employment rate rising from 57% in 2004 to
65% in 2008.
Table 9 – London Latin American Activity
Activity
2004
2008
% Change
In employment
ILO unemployed
Inactive
Under 16
33,777
2,919
19,358
2,904
51,935
2,622
18,770
5,969
54
-10
-3
106
ALL
58,958
79,296
34
Apart from the a large growth in Latin American children of school age in
London over the period, there has been a 54% increase in those in
employment feeding into higher employment rates within this sub-population.
Over the period there was a 10% decline in unemployed Latin Americans in
London and a 3% decline in those inactive.
25
Fig 6 - London Latin Americans by Activity
There has been a 51% increase in the number of Latin American men over
the period and they have experienced increasing employment rates rising
from 66% in 2004 to 74% in 2008 (table 8). While there is greater number of
Latin women in London (up 21%), their employment rate has also increased
from 50% to 57%. The latest available APS 2008 data relate to the period
July 2007 to June 2008 just before the start of the recession, so this may be a
very different picture now.
Table 10 – London Latin American Activity by Sex
2004
Activity
In employment
2004
Male
%
Female
2008
%
2008
Male
%
Female
50 29,510
2004-2008
% F % change M % Change
17,345
66
16,432
74
22,425
57
36
70
ILO unemployed
1,944
7
975
3
1,233
3
1,389
4
42
-37
Inactive
5,717
22
13,641
42
5,238
13
13,532
34
-1
-8
Under 16
1,227
5
1,677
5
3,661
9
2,308
6
38
198
39,654 100
21
51
ALL
26,233 100
32,725 100 39,642 100
The number of young Latin males of school age has increased by nearly
200% from 1,227 in 2004 to 3,661 in 2008.
26
Fig 7 - London Latin Americans by Sex & Activity
Relative to all London activity the London Latin Americans have higher
employment rates, and lower rates of inactivity.
Table 11 London 2008 Latin American Activity
London 2008
Activity
Male
In employment
Foreign Born
%
Count
%
Latin
Count
%
65 29,510
74
2,066,645
55
789,882
ILO unemployed
140,591
4
56,469
5
1,233
3
Inactive
778,360
21
280,402
23
5,238
13
Under 16
743,261
20
80,596
7
3,661
9
ALL
Female In employment
ILO unemployed
Inactive
Under 16
ALL
ALL
Count
3,728,857 100 1,207,349 100 39,642 100
1,644,363
43
592,081
110,680
3
50,493
1,335,884
35
567,596
716,030
19
77,867
46 22,425
4
57
1,389
4
44 13,532
34
6
2,308
6
ALL
3,806,957 100 1,288,037 100 39,654 100
In employment
3,711,008
ILO unemployed
49 1,381,963
55 51,935
4
65
251,271
3
106,962
Inactive
2,114,244
28
847,998
2,622
3
34 18,770
24
Under 16
1,459,291
19
158,463
ALL
7,535,814 100 2,495,386 100 79,296 100
6
5,969
8
27
Table 11b London 2008 Latin American Activity Rate Over 16s
London 2008
Activity
Male
Female
Foreign Born
Latin
Count
%
Count
2,066,645
69
789,882
ILO unemployed
140,591
5
56,469
5
1,233
3
Inactive
778,360
26
280,402
25
5,238
15
In employment
%
Count
%
70 29,510
82
ALL >16
2,985,596 100
In employment
1,644,363
53
592,081
110,680
4
50,493
Inactive
1,335,884
43
567,596
ALL >16
3,090,927 100
1,210,170 100 37,346 100
In employment
3,711,008
61
1,381,963
251,271
4
106,962
Inactive
2,114,244
35
847,998
ALL >16
6,076,523 100
ILO unemployed
ALL
ALL
ILO unemployed
1,126,753 100 35,981 100
49 22,425
4
60
1,389
4
47 13,532
36
59 51,935
5
71
2,622
4
36 18,770
26
2,336,923 100 73,327 100
Figure 8 London 2008 Latin American Activity Relative to All
28
In 2008 some 30% of male employment was in routine and semi-routine
occupations and 26% in higher and lower managerial and professional
occupation. Some 27% of women’s employment was in routine occupations
and 24% in managerial and professional.
The occupational structure of Latin employment in London has changed over
the period 2004 to 2008. Both men and women have increased their
employment in all occupations except lower supervisory and technical
occupations.
For women the largest increase has been in the routine occupations 94%, but
employment has also been increasing in the higher professional occupations
(74%).
For men, small employers and own account workers only accounted for 3% of
occupations in 2004, but by 2008 this had increased to 7% of all occupations.
This represents a 258% growth rate in this occupation over the period. Men
have also been increasing their employment in semi-routine occupations
(170%) and intermediate occupations with little growth in the higher
managerial and professional occupations (10%) over the period.
Figure 9 – London Latin American Occupations by Sex
29
Table 12 – London Latin American Occupation Structure
Occupation
2004
Men
% Change 20042008
2008
% Women
%
Men
% Women
%
Men
Women
7
10
74
6,471 17
88
13
45
Higher managerial and professional
3,894 16
1,527
5
4,268 12
2,658
Lower managerial and professional
2,721 11
5,745 19
5,104 14
Intermediate occupations
Small employers and own account
workers
462
2
2,373
8
984
3
3,450
9
113
733
3
2,895
9
2,626
7
3,499
9
258
21
Lower supervisory and technical
4,198 17
1,097
4
3,928 11
920
2
-6
-16
Semi-routine occupations
2,258
2,080
7
6,102 17
2,801
8
170
35
Routine occupations
4,470 18
3,684 12
4,785 13
7,149 19
7
94
Never worked, unemployed, and nec
6,270 25
11,647 38
8,184 23
10,398 28
31
-11
31,048 100 35,981 100
37,346 100
44
20
ALL
9
25,006 100
Table 13 London 2008 Latin American Occupations
London 2008
Occupation
Male
ALL
Foreign Born
Latin
Count
%
Count
%
Count
%
Higher managerial and professional
525,010
18
178,646
16
4,268
12
Lower managerial and professional
619,909
21
201,341
18
5,104
14
Intermediate occupations
142,012
5
44,994
4
984
3
Small employers and own account workers
317,510
11
136,756
12
2,626
7
Lower supervisory and technical
202,900
7
82,149
7
3,928
11
Semi-routine occupations
203,683
7
100,920
9
6,102
17
Routine occupations
221,241
7
92,755
8
4,785
13
Never worked, unemployed, and nec
753,331
25
289,192
26
8,184
23
ALL
2,985,596 100 1,126,753 100 35,981 100
Female Higher managerial and professional
276,549
9
89,948
7
2,658
7
Lower managerial and professional
675,615
22
219,134
18
6,471
17
Intermediate occupations
350,543
11
107,870
9
3,450
9
Small employers and own account workers
117,986
4
52,194
4
3,499
9
84,063
3
34,796
3
920
2
306,161
10
130,313
11
2,801
8
6
7,149
19
42 10,398
28
Lower supervisory and technical
Semi-routine occupations
Routine occupations
ALL
135,893
4
72,002
Never worked, unemployed, and nec
1,144,117
37
503,913
ALL
3,090,927 100 1,210,170 100 37,346 100
Higher managerial and professional
801,559
13
268,594
11
6,926
9
Lower managerial and professional
18 11,575
16
1,295,524
21
420,475
Intermediate occupations
492,555
8
152,864
7
4,434
6
Small employers and own account workers
435,496
7
188,950
8
6,125
8
Lower supervisory and technical
286,963
5
116,945
5
4,848
7
Semi-routine occupations
509,844
8
231,233
10
8,903
12
Routine occupations
357,134
6
164,757
7 11,934
16
Never worked, unemployed, and nec
1,897,448
31
793,105
34 18,582
25
ALL
6,076,523 100 2,336,923 100 73,327 100
30
Relative to all London occupations the London Latin Americans have higher
proportions in routine and semi-routine occupations.
Table 13b London 2008 Latin American Occupations
London 2008 Occupation
Men
Total % Latin
Latin %
Managers and Senior Officials
435,406
21
4,671
16
Professional occupations
344,467
17
1,888
6
Associate Professional and Technical
371,423
18
2,549
9
Administrative and Secretarial
109,335
5
1,143
4
Skilled Trades Occupations
266,902
13
4,545
15
Personal Service Occupations
53,306
3
1,362
5
Sales and Customer Service Occupations
101,467
5
798
3
Process, Plant and Machine Operatives
148,131
7
1,557
5
Elementary Occupations
219,526
11 10,997
37
2,049,963
100 29,510
100
ALL
Women Managers and Senior Officials
227,570
14
2,821
Professional occupations
256,740
16
1,553
7
Associate Professional and Technical
323,253
20
2,694
12
Administrative and Secretarial
331,015
20
3,834
17
20,632
1
0
0
Personal Service Occupations
204,438
13
2,690
12
Sales and Customer Service Occupations
128,312
8
1,581
7
17,886
1
299
1
124,496
8
6,680
30
100 22,152
100
Skilled Trades Occupations
Process, Plant and Machine Operatives
Elementary Occupations
ALL
ALL
Total
1,634,342
13
Managers and Senior Officials
662,976
18
7,492
Professional occupations
601,207
16
3,441
7
Associate Professional and Technical
694,676
19
5,243
10
Administrative and Secretarial
440,350
12
4,977
10
Skilled Trades Occupations
287,534
8
4,545
9
Personal Service Occupations
257,744
7
4,052
8
Sales and Customer Service Occupations
229,779
6
2,379
5
Process, Plant and Machine Operatives
166,017
5
1,856
4
Elementary Occupations
344,022
9 17,677
34
3,684,305
100 51,662
100
ALL
15
31
Figure 10 London 2008 Latin American Occupations Relative to All
Figure 10b London 2008 Latin American Occupations Relative to All
32
DWP- National Insurance Registrations – NINo
A National Insurance Number (NINo) is required by any overseas national
looking to work or claim benefits / tax credits in the UK, including the self
employed or students working part time. The Department of Work and
Pensions (DWP) provide statistics on National Insurance Numbers (NINo)
allocated to adult overseas nationals entering the UK.
The figures provide some measure of regular in-migration (inflow) for adult
overseas nationals registering for a NINo, but do not reflect out migration
flows of those who leave the UK, or the overall migrant population (stock).
The figures reflect adult overseas nationals allocated a NINo through the adult
registration scheme. The registration date represents the date the information
on the individual was processed on HM Revenue and Customs’ National
Insurance Recording System (NIRS), and figures show here are for calendar
years.
Table 14 Latin American NINo Registrations UK 2002-2009
NINo Registrations to Adult Latin American Overseas Nationals entering the UK (Thousands)
Nationality
2002 2003 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009p
2002-2009
Latin American
5.28
Argentina
Belize
7.86
8.96
10.76
10.04
12.89
13.34
8.75
77.88
0.48
0.6
0.47
0.52
0.53
0.61
0.59
0.29
4.09
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.03
0.02
0.03
0.21
Bolivia
0.13
0.33
0.47
0.51
0.26
0.25
0.17
0.09
2.21
Brazil
1.84
3.14
4.19
5.34
4.83
6.05
6.21
4.09
35.69
Chile
0.19
0.25
0.22
0.25
0.27
0.36
0.37
0.16
2.07
Colombia
1.05
1.38
1.35
1.75
1.75
2.62
3.18
2.49
15.57
Costa Rica
0.02
0.03
0.02
0.03
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.24
Cuba
0.11
0.14
0.13
0.18
0.15
0.2
0.19
0.09
1.19
0.1
0.14
0.14
0.14
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.08
1.08
Ecuador
0.28
0.34
0.36
0.29
0.29
0.4
0.41
0.28
2.65
El Salvador
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.15
Guatemala
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.15
Honduras
0.02
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.14
Mexico
0.42
0.56
0.6
0.69
0.77
0.96
0.88
0.5
5.38
Nicaragua
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.01
0.14
Panama
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.03
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.21
Paraguay
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.01
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.18
Peru
0.22
0.29
0.29
0.3
0.32
0.5
0.43
0.25
2.6
Uruguay
0.03
0.04
0.04
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.04
0.02
0.29
Venezuala
0.29
0.49
0.55
0.56
0.48
0.49
0.51
0.27
3.64
Dominican Rep
Notes
Time Series - Calendar Year Of Registration Date
2009p (Not Complete)
Thousands
The lowest spatial resolution is Local Authority level in the UK where
Registrations are allocated using address matching software to the latest
33
postcode directory. Figures reflect the best estimate of an adult overseas
national’s locality at the time of registering for a NINo (DWP, 2009). However,
the figures do not reflect internal movement within the UK which may happen
after registration.
Latin Americans entering the UK have been increasing over the period 2002
to 2008 from 5,280 in 2002 to 13,340 in 2008. Over the period as a whole
some 77,880 national insurance registration took place in the UK. Nearly half
of all UK registrations are from nationals from Brazil, followed by Colombia
and Mexico.
Table 15 London Latin American NINo Registrations 2002-2009
NINo Registrations of Adult Latin Americans Entering London 2002-2009 (thousands)
Area
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009p 2002-2009
London
2.86 4.41 5.28 6.49 5.87 7.55 8.22
5.75
46.43
Camden
0.17 0.23 0.21 0.33 0.29 0.43 0.43
0.28
2.37
City of London
0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.01
0.01
0.06
Hackney
0.13 0.23 0.32 0.44 0.32 0.37 0.49
0.37
2.67
Hammersmith and Fulham
0.17 0.26 0.32 0.39 0.35 0.41 0.44
0.31
2.65
Haringey
0.12 0.21 0.25 0.27 0.26 0.41 0.48
0.38
2.38
Islington
0.14 0.19 0.25 0.28 0.26 0.39 0.43
0.32
2.26
Kensington and Chelsea
0.16 0.23 0.22 0.20 0.23 0.29 0.27
0.17
1.77
Lambeth
0.23 0.40 0.48 0.59 0.52 0.62 0.66
0.51
4.01
Lewisham
0.10 0.11 0.15 0.21 0.20 0.24 0.27
0.22
1.50
Newham
0.10 0.16 0.17 0.16 0.18 0.26 0.32
0.18
1.53
Southwark
0.21 0.43 0.47 0.65 0.52 0.63 0.67
0.51
4.09
Tower Hamlets
0.12 0.20 0.27 0.37 0.34 0.51 0.55
0.33
2.69
Wandsworth
0.15 0.23 0.26 0.35 0.39 0.40 0.49
0.32
2.59
Westminster
0.26 0.35 0.39 0.48 0.40 0.54 0.46
0.33
3.21
Barking and Dagenham
0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
0.00
0.06
Barnet
0.11 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.15 0.22 0.24
0.14
1.30
Bexley
0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01
0.01
0.06
Brent
0.20 0.34 0.60 0.65 0.48 0.65 0.69
0.54
4.15
Bromley
0.01 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.05 0.05
0.03
0.29
Croydon
0.04 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.10
0.06
0.52
Ealing
0.07 0.12 0.15 0.21 0.20 0.22 0.25
0.19
1.41
Enfield
0.04 0.05 0.05 0.04 0.05 0.08 0.08
0.05
0.44
Greenwich
0.02 0.07 0.05 0.07 0.06 0.09 0.11
0.06
0.53
Harrow
0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.02
0.02
0.17
Havering
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.02
0.01
0.04
Hillingdon
0.02 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.03
0.02
0.24
Hounslow
0.06 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.06 0.09 0.12
0.04
0.67
Kingston upon Thames
0.02 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.03
0.02
0.28
Merton
0.05 0.04 0.07 0.12 0.12 0.14 0.19
0.10
0.83
Redbridge
0.02 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04
0.02
0.20
Richmond upon Thames
0.06 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.10 0.06 0.07
0.06
0.53
Sutton
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03
0.02
0.15
Waltham Forest
0.06 0.08 0.07 0.09 0.08 0.12 0.16
0.12
0.78
Notes
Time Series - Calendar Year Of Registration Date
2009p (Not Complete)
34
Thousands
Over the period 2002 to 2009 some 60% of all registrations are undertaken in
the London with 46,430 of the 77,880 Latin American registrations. London
registrations increased from 2,860 in 2002 to 8,220 in 2008. The London
boroughs having the higher number of registrations over the period are Brent
at 4,150, followed by Southwark 4,090 and Lambeth 4,010.
Home Office – Border Agency Data
Home Office / Border Agency statistics mainly concern visitors to the UK who
are subject of immigration control. The Border Agency collect data on
passenger arrivals, admissions and refusals at air, sea and Channel Tunnel
ports in the UK. Data on non-EEA national passenger admissions are
compiled from a sample of landing cards, as Non-EEA citizens are required to
complete a landing card on entry to the United Kingdom (Home Office, 2009
web site info).
UK Passenger Entry Control
Each year some 12 million passengers from non-EEA countries are subject to
border control with approximately 60% being ordinary or business visitors.
The Home Office control of immigration statistics give the estimated number
of passengers entering the UK by purpose of journey and by nationality,
(excluding EEA nationals and Switzerland) for the years 2005 to 2008.
A serious geographical aggregation problem also exists with this data as only
Latin American nationality figures are produced for Argentina, Brazil, Chile,
Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela. All other Latin American countries
are contained in an 'Other Americas' category.
The ‘Other Americas’ category includes a mix of the other Latin American
countries of interest here, Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, El Salvador,
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Uruguay, Bolivia, Paraguay, Cuba,
and other Caribbean Islands of the Bahamas, Barbados, Dominica, Grenada,
Haiti, Puerto Rico, Surinam, and the Virgin Islands.
Visitor estimates are based on passengers classified as either ordinary or
business visitors, and others given leave to enter and includes the ‘Other
Americas’ category. These figures are shown in the table below.
Data for 2004 and before are produced in a different format and only a 'Total
Americas' category is given making Latin American analysis difficult.
However, for the years 2005 - 2008 it is possible to estimate visitors from
Latin America and ‘Other Americas’ by using extrapolation from these data to
produce estimates for the period 2001 – 2004 based on fitting a linear trend
line to the 2005-2008 data. The 2005-2008 data and the extrapolated data
are shown below.
35
Over the period 2001-2008 this estimate suggests there to have been 2.1
million Latin and Other American visitors to the UK.
Table 16 Passenger Visitors Entering the UK 2005-2008
Passenger Visitors Entering UK by nationality
2005
2006
2007
2008
2005-2008
2001-2008
Argentina
27,005
34,175
36,565
41,720
139,465
na
Barbados
7,235
7,720
6,910
7,385
29,250
na
96,180
113,370
137,390
162,230
509,170
na
605,800
655,100
717,300
688,340
2,666,540
na
Chile
14,925
17,920
19,385
19,425
71,655
na
Colombia
14,580
15,760
15,820
17,250
63,410
na
Guyana
2,750
2,595
1,965
1,530
8,840
na
Jamaica
6,585
6,145
6,100
7,475
26,305
na
Mexico
72,380
80,120
81,300
80,780
314,580
na
Brazil
Canada
Peru
5,075
5,915
5,605
5,195
21,790
na
16,600
17,970
15,430
14,485
64,485
na
2,596,600 2,687,200 2,501,300
2,190,900
9,976,000
na
Trinidad & Tobago
USA
Venezuela
14,365
17,585
19,150
25,845
76,945
na
Other America
36,970
38,780
38,160
39,610
153,520
na
Latin America
244,510
284,845
315,215
352,445
1,197,015
Latin / Other America
281,480
323,625
353,375
392,055
1,350,535
3,517,050 3,700,355 3,602,380
3,302,170
14,121,955
11.9
9.6
All Americas
Latin/Other % All Americas
8.0
8.7
9.8
2,120,535
Note:
2001 to 2004 Latin Other American figures are extrapolated from 2005 to 2008 data
2004=245,000
2003=210,000
2002=175,000
2001=140,000
estimates as based on trend line
Includes Caribbean countries in other Americas
based on nationality not country of birth
Latin America is sum of countries given
The statistics produce a summary view of numbers of passengers arriving, by
journey purpose, but are limited by the lack of info on UK address and
intended length of stay.
The lack of information on ‘intended length of stay’ make estimating in
migration from the data difficult. Migrants estimates from these data could
include other journey purpose categories such as students, all work permit
holders (greater and less than 12 months) and their dependents, points based
system entries, those admitted as a husband, wife or fiancé, refugees,
exceptional leave to remain cases and their dependents, and those granted
settlement on arrival.
36
Visitor estimates can be compared with the IPS figures for the 2001-2008
period which suggest there to have been a stock of in visitors over the same
period of 3.1 million. However, the IPS figures are also based on nationality,
but include passengers in transit. The Border Agency figures exclude
passengers in transit, and use trend line estimation for earlier year 2001-2004
both of which will produce a lower estimate.
Work Permits
Applications for Work permits in the UK are made by employers not
individuals. The Highly Skilled Migrants Programme (HSMP) uses a point
based application system for specific skills lacking in the UK labour market.
The coordinating agency in the UK for work permits is known as Work Permits
UK.
The summary table below gives figures on work permit holders by Latin
American nationality given for the period for which data are given from 20052008. Over this period some 17,475 work permits were granted with the
majority going to nationals from Brazil and Argentina.
Table 17 Work Permit Holders and Dependents
Work Permit Holders and Dependents 2005-2008
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Mexico
Peru
Venezuela
Other Americas
2005 2006 2007 2008
860 1,135 1,125 1,335
1,230 1,450 1,200 1,305
160 190 190 155
300 355 265 355
555 660 490 450
45
70
80
45
195 325 235 220
675 665 635 520
2005-2008
4,455
5,185
695
1,275
2,155
240
975
2,495
Latin and Other Americas
4,020 4,850 4,220 4,385
17,475
Note: Source Home Office
includes >12 and < 12 months permits
includes Caribbean Countries in Other Americas
Grants of Settlement – Long Term In migration
After UK entry the Home office record application and decisions on extensions
of leave to remain and settlement. Those subject to immigration control who
are allowed to remain in the UK indefinitely, or had a time limit removed are
recorded in the Grants of Settlement statistics.
Grants of settlement are the main measure of long-term in migration of people
subject to immigration control. In 2008 there were 148,740 persons granted
settlement, 8% (11,580) of which were from the Americas. Like other Home
37
Office data it is not available for all individual Latin American countries, only
for the countries given below.
Table 18 Grants of Settlement in the UK by American Nationality
Grants of Settlement in the UK by Nationality
Argentina
Barbados
Brazil
Canada
Chile
Colombia
Guyana
Jamaica
Mexico
Peru
Trinidad & Tobago
USA
Venezuela
Other America
Latin Americas
Latin / Other Americas
All Americas
2001
120
115
575
1,320
75
785
210
2,855
130
150
365
4,385
85
810
2002
120
100
510
1,300
100
805
190
2,675
160
155
410
4,355
80
720
2003
155
160
695
1,710
120
1,000
275
4,500
245
180
655
5,620
120
1,025
2004
95
145
565
1,225
65
1,745
170
2,930
130
110
565
4,120
85
2,175
2005
145
120
645
1,215
50
1,555
235
2,780
140
220
505
4,350
155
1,790
2006
125
130
850
1,125
105
855
165
2,900
220
200
375
3,845
145
1,055
2007
155
80
865
1,015
80
590
140
2,440
185
145
405
3,310
150
885
2008 2001-2008
170
1,085
95
945
940
5,645
1,190
10,100
65
660
655
7,990
350
1,735
2,750
23,830
240
1,450
150
1,310
505
3,785
3,335
33,320
140
960
995
9,455
1,920
2,730
1,930
2,650
2,515
3,540
2,795
4,970
2,910
4,700
2,500
3,555
2,170
3,055
2,360
3,355
19,100
28,555
11,980
11,680
16,460
14,125
13,905
12,095
10,445
11,580
102,270
While these figures only include the Latin American countries given, over the
period 2001-2008 some 19,000 Latin Americans were granted settlement in
the UK with the largest group coming from Colombia 7,990, followed by Brazil
5,645.
Asylum Data
Home Office data on asylum cover a number of types and flows and includes
Asylum applications, decisions and appeals, people detained under
immigration powers, and immigration appeals. Other topic areas covered
include the number of asylum seekers supported, the number of asylum
seekers detained and removed, the number of asylum seekers who departed
voluntarily and applications and decisions relating to British citizenship.
Asylum Applications
The Home Office enter asylum applicants on the CID system and in 2008
some 90% of applications were from within country applications once a
person has entered the UK, with the remained applying at port of entry on
arrival. In 2008 there were some 31,315 asylum applications including
dependents, with some 2% being applicants from the Americas as a whole.
The National Asylum Support Service – NASS gathers information on asylum
applications awaiting a decision who qualify for support services, by age, sex,
nationality and Local Authority District. In 2003 some 72 % of applicants took
up NASS support, with the other 28% excluded from the database. This
source has less value for London as most asylum seekers are outside the
38
NASS system or get only cash support from it and find their own
accommodation.
Data Issues
Most of the data are taken from administrative records, but only summary
figures are given for global regions. Home Office data is not always
disaggregated by nationality, for much of the Latin American asylum data only
the nationalities of Columbia and Ecuador are given separately along with a
category ‘Other Americas’ which includes much of the Caribbean islands and
other colonies of South America excluded from the working definition used
here.
Table 19 UK Latin American Asylum Statistics
UK Latin American Asylum Statistics, excluding dependants, by country of nationality
Nationality
Applications
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Colombia
365
420
220
120
70
60
30
25
Ecuador
255
315
150
35
10
15
10
15
805
Jamaica
525 1310
965
455
325
215
240
240
4275
170 240 230
1315 2290 1560
130
740
100
505
95
385
115
390
130
405
1210
5
5
0
0
35
5
10
30
10
220
0
Other Americas
Total Americas
Recognised
Colombia
40
45
15
5
granted asylum
Ecuador
10
20
5
0
Jamaica
5
10
Total Americas
10
70
5
80
Not recognised but
Colombia
55
20
5
granted leave
Ecuador
10
10
Jamaica
15
Other Americas
7590
115
10
10
0
5
10
5
0
0
0
15
10
10
10
5
10
Total Americas
30
115
5
50
10
40
5
20
5
15
5
10
5
15
5
270
Colombia
675
415
315
150
65
45
30
10
1705
Ecuador
495
290
220
50
20
10
15
10
1110
Jamaica
470
890 1105
500
305
160
225
170
3825
245 170 195
1885 1770 1835
110
810
75
465
55
270
80
350
75
260
1005
Other Americas
Total Americas
5
25
0
1310
5
10
Other Americas
Refusals
2001-2008
25
80
35
75
65
7645
Source: Border Agency Data
While the aggregations may be for disclosure reasons, the nationalities
recorded as ‘Americas Other’ are given in the table below.
39
Table 20 Nationalities recorded as: Americas Other
Mexico
Guatemala
El Salvador Nicaragua
Belize
Costa Rica
Honduras
Panama
Argentina
Venezuela
Brazil
Bolivia
Chile
Peru
Uruguay
Paraguay
Cuba
Grenada
Surinam
Bahamas
Barbados
Dominica,
Guyana
Haiti
Puerto Rico,
Trinidad & Tobago Virgin Islands, and ‘other Americas’
(Source: Home Office 2006 file hosb1407.pdf, page 91)
This data is not very useful for estimating Latin American irregular migrants as
these figures included countries outside of the working definition and cannot
be disaggregated without large margins of error.
Irregular Migrants
A major problem with official data sources is that they are not adjusted for the
irregular migrant populations of the UK. Various studies have attempted to
estimate the irregular migrant population in the UK and London (Woodbridge,
2006: GLA 2009). However, there is no study which estimates the irregular
Latin American migrant population of London.
Regular migrants are those who enter the UK with the correct papers and who
are given permission to remain under different conditions. Irregular migrants
are generally of three different types.
a) Illegal entrants – those evading formal controls, or presenting false
papers.
b) Migrants remaining after permitted period, such as failed asylum
seekers who stay in country, overstayers who remain despite expired
legal residence.
c) Children born to irregular migrants, though not migrants themselves,
have no right to remain.
While irregular migrants are not always uncounted migrants in official data
sources, there is no study in the UK of unauthorised migrant undercount in the
UK Census of 2001. The ONS suggest that between 10 and 20 percent as
being appropriate undercount for the unauthorised foreign born population
(reported in Woodbridge, 2005:11).
40
In 2001 it was estimated at 430,000 or 0.7% of UK population of 59 million
were illegal migrants (Woodbridge, 2005) and by 2007 this is estimated to
have risen to 618,000 (GLA, 2009).
Table 21: Recent Estimates of Irregular Population, 000s
UK Irregular Resident Population 2001 - end 2007
Woodbridge: 2001 estimate of irregular migrants
Central Estimate Lower Estimate Higher Estimate
430
310
570
resident failed asylum seekers
219
219
219
overstayer / illegal entrants
50
21
79
-166
-177
-149
533
373
719
85
44
144
618
417
863
2001-2007 change in numbers of:
Regularised 2003-2007
Total irregular migrants at end 2007
UK-born children
Total Irregular resident population at end 2007
Source: GLA 2009, note 000s
London Irregular Population end 2007
Central Estimate Lower Estimate Higher Estimate
Failed asylum seekers as a 2001
229
215
243
Growth in failed asylum seekers
131
99
164
Overstayer/illegal entrants
121
28
226
-100
-91
-108
61
30
105
442
281
630
Regularisations 2003-2007 (inc EU Accession)
UK-born children
Total irregular residents 2007
Source: GLA 2009, note 000s
The GLA report updates Woodbridge to 2007 and suggests London has 70%
of the irregular total population for the UK (GLA 2009).
In London by 2007 the estimated total irregular resident population has a
central estimate of 442,000, (with a high estimate of 630,000 and a low
estimate of 281,000). Latin Americans will be contained in this total for all
irregulars and estimates of 2008 stocks of irregulars can be made based on
these figures and the share of Latin Americans in the population. Two
methods of doing this are explored below.
Estimating the Irregular Latin American Population of London
Estimates of the 'irregular' Latin American population of London are difficult to
obtain from official data sources, as often the data does not exist in a format
suitable to estimation methods. Despite the fact that many irregulars have an
interest in remaining invisible, official surveys such, as the population census,
produce estimates of all residents regardless of legal status, and can include
irregulars.
41
Recent research has attempted to estimate the overall irregular population of
London (GLA 2009). The research method used essentially updates
estimates produced by Woodbridge (2005). Woodbridge uses a residual
method to estimate the irregular population of the UK and it is only possible to
use this type of method for a decennial Census year. The GLA update work
uses Home Office asylum seeker data, along with conjectural extrapolations
for illegal entrants and overstayers. Added to these figures are estimates of
the likely number of UK-born children to irregular migrant couples, along with
a deduction for regularised irregulars (GLA, 2009).
However, these estimates are subject to a large margin of error and as the
authors note,
"it is impossible to produce an agreed and wholly robust figure for the number
of irregular migrants in the UK" (GLA, 2009:28).
Home office data is more suitable for estimating the overall figures of the
irregular population of the UK and London as is done in the GLA (2009)
report.
The GLA approach to Irregular Overstayer Estimation
Population estimates are highly sensitive to estimates of the proportion of
overstayers. The GLA methodology estimates the overstayer / illegal irregular
population of London as a residual after subtracting the 2001 failed asylum
seeker stock from the Woodbridge figure for total irregulars. The GLA failed
asylum seeker stock at 2001 is estimated to be 286,000 which is 67% of the
Woodbridge estimate of 430,000 irregulars in 2001, the remaining 144,000
being the supposed size of the overstayer / illegal stock at 2001. However, it
is not entirely clear that the failed asylum seekers stock are the largest
proportion of the total irregulars stock and many suggest that overstayers
stocks may be larger than this.
The GLA method avoids the issue of how to estimate the size of the
overstayer stock and it may be an underestimate of the size of the overstayer
population of irregulars. Overstayers in the GLA method are not being directly
estimated from any survey source, but only appear as a residual, the size of
which may be greater than the GLA analysis suggests. The Latin survey data
for this study suggests there to be 19 percent of irregulars with a large
proportion of these being overstayers, rather than failed asylum seekers.
Methods of Estimation
There are a number of different methods that can be used in estimation based
on the available base data. All estimates will vary depending on what is
included in the estimate, what parameters are used and where the
parameters come from. This section explores a number of stock and flow
method approaches to estimating the Latin American population of the UK
and London for 2008.
42
Official estimates do not take account of irregular migrants living in the UK,
and different types of estimates are produced based on the GLA (2009)
estimates of irregulars and other estimates of visitor switchers.
Estimates are likely to be highly sensitive to what irregular population
components are included and how they are estimated. As was shown earlier
Latin American IN visitors between 2001-2008 summed to a cumulative 3.1
million over the period. Even if 10% or 13% of these became visitor switchers
there could be a hidden/ irregular 300,000 - 400,000 Latin Americans in the
UK over the period. These parameters swamp the 130,000 official population
estimate coming from the APS 2008.
A number of methodological approaches are explored here and the
sensitivities to various parameters are discussed. The main methods used
are;
Estimates of Irregulars from Home Office Data: The first is the possibility
of obtaining a measure of Latin American irregulars directly from Home Office
data. However, this method was difficult due to the lack of available data
disaggregated by detailed nationality this approach could not be attempted,
despite this information existing within the Home Office (see Annex D).
Estimates from APS 2008 plus a Latin Irregulars Estimate; This uses the
overall measures of irregulars derived by the GLA (2009) report and then
updates this to 2008 and estimates the proportion of all irregulars who are
likely to be Latin Americans based on population proportions derived from
evidence from the LFS/APS. This method estimates directly from the Annual
Population Survey the 2008 Latin American Population, and assumes that the
APS estimate contains no irregular migrants. While not all irregulars are
uncounted in official surveys, the incentive to remain hidden would make it
more likely that irregulars would not complete any official government survey
information (especially the LFS/APS). This figure is then adjusted for
irregular migrants to produce an estimate of the Latin American population
total for 2008.
Estimates based on TIM type methods: the first TIM Type method 1 - taking
the 2001 stock and adjusting for regular net in migration flows over the period
2001-2008, with an additional adjustment for the irregular component.
A second TIM type method 2, taking the 2001 stock and adjusting for regular
and migrants switchers (as additional irregular flows), natural increase in the
Latin population, and irregular flows between 2001-2008 (most complex).
Estimates from the Survey Questionnaire; In addition some parameters for
use in estimation can be derived from the questionnaire survey itself,
particularly those relating to migrant and visitor switchers and fertility rates,
along with those switching between regular and irregular migrant status.
These could feed into the available base-data and see what effect this has on
estimates, or can be used to validate other estimates.
43
Method 1: The Latin Irregular population based on Updating the GLA
Report
This method takes the overall GLA total of irregular migrants in London as of
2007 and updates this to 2008 based on the projected annual growth rate in
irregular migrants over the period 2001-2007. Based on the GLA estimates
the growth rate in irregular migrants in London has a central estimate of
35,500 per year (with a lower estimate of 11,000 and a higher estimate of
64,500).
There are a number of methods of estimating the proportion of this updated
irregular population likely to be Latin American
A. Latin Population Estimate based on Proportion of Total Population
This method takes the GLA middle estimate for irregular migrants as of 2007
of 618,000 for the UK and 442,000 for London. The GLA figures are for 2007
so these are first projected forward one year to 2008 based on the annual
average growth in irregular migrants (31,000 nationally and 35,500 for
London). For example the central 2001 estimate of irregular migrants in the
UK was 430,000 and by 2007 this had increased to 618,000. The additional
188,000 irregular migrants arrived over the 6 year period, giving an annual
average of 31,333 irregular migrants over the period.
For London this produces an estimate of total irregular migrants of 477,500.
The proportion of these who are likely to be Latin is derived from the APS
2008 where they comprise about 1% of the population of London over the
period 2004-2008 (annex c table 32). Assuming that the same proportion of
Latin Americans in the London population are also in the total irregular
population gives a central estimate of the London irregular Latin population of
5,000 (with a lower estimate of 3,100 and a higher estimate of 7,300).
The next stage adjusts for the likely irregular Latin American population, and
is based on the proportion of Latin Americans in the total 2008 APS
population. This gives an estimate of the likely Latin American proportion of
all irregular migrants. These are then added to the APS totals. The 2008
APS estimates the total UK population as 60,372,758 of which 130,186 are
Latin American representing about 0.22 % of the total UK population.
44
Table 22: Irregular Latin Population 2008 based on Population
Proportion
Latin Irregular Population Estimate 2008 (Thousands)
Central
Lower
Higher
1 Irregular 2001
UK
430.0
310.0
570.0
2 Irregular 2007
618.0
417.0
863.0
3 Change 2007-2001 (6 year period)
188.0
107.0
293.0
31.3
17.8
48.8
649.3
434.8
911.8
4 growth per year 2001-2007
5 Irregular 2008 (2+ 4)
Latin Proportion of UK Population
6 Latin Irregular 2008 (5*6)
0.22%
1.4
1.0
2.0
7 2004-2008 Average (5*7)
0.20%
1.3
0.9
1.8
Central
Lower
Higher
1 Irregular 2001
229.0
215.0
243.0
2 Irregular 2007
442.0
281.0
630.0
3 Change 2007-2001 (6 year period)
213.0
66.0
387.0
35.5
11.0
64.5
477.5
292.0
694.5
London
4 growth per year 2001-2007
5 Irregular 2008 (2+ 4)
Latin Proportion of London Population
6 Latin Irregular 2008 (5*6)
1.05%
5.0
3.1
7.3
7 2004-2008 Average (5*7)
0.94%
4.5
2.7
6.5
Notes: 000s
The UK estimates are lower due to the lower Latin proportion of a higher UK total
Based on GLA (2009) estimates
Latin proportions derived from LFS/APS
The UK figures are somewhat smaller than the London estimates. This is
because of two factors, first the GLA estimate allocates 70% of the UK
irregular population to London, second the 2008 Latin American proportion of
the London population is higher (1%) than the Latin UK population proportion
(0.2%).
45
Table 24 Latin Population 2008 Estimate as Proportion of Total
Population
Central Lower Higher
UK
1 Latin American Population 2008 (APS)
130,186 130,186 130,186
Irregular Stock 2008 (GLA middle estimate projected on 1 year by 31,000 annual
2 average)
649,000 434,833 911,833
3 Latin Proportion of All UK Population APS 2008 (0.22%)
4 Latin Irregular Population Share (2*3)
5 Total Latin Population (1+4)
1,429
957
2,006
131,615 131,143 132,192
London
1 Latin American Population 2008 (APS)
Irregular Stock 2008 (GLA middle London estimate projected on 1 year by 35,500
2 annual average)
79,296 79,296 79,296
477,500 292,000 694,500
3 Latin Proportion of All London Population APS 2008 (1.05%)
4 Latin Irregular Population Share (2*3)
5 Total Latin Population (1+4)
5,014
3,066
7,292
84,310 82,362 86,588
Assuming Latin Americans represent the same share of the irregular
population as they do the APS 2008 figure of 0.22%, this gives an irregular
total Latin American central estimate of 1,429 for 2008 (957 lower, 2,006
higher).
For London the central estimate of irregular migrants had increased from
229,000 in 2001 to 442,000 in 2007 (see Table 21), some 213,000 increase
over the 6 year period, giving an average increase of 35,500 per year over the
period. For London the APS 2008 total population estimate is 7,535,814 and
a Latin American population of 79,296 giving a Latin percentage of the
London population of 1.05%. Using this proportion produces an estimated
larger number of irregular Latin Americans in London (5,014) than in the UK
(1,429) in 2008, suggesting further validation needs to be undertaken in
applying a proportionate method, especially at UK level.
This produces a UK Latin American population central estimate of nearly
131,615 and a London total of 84,310 (64% if UK total).
This method assumes that the APS does not contain any irregular Latin
American migrants and they are additional to official population estimates, on
the assumption of wanting to remain invisible from the official LFS survey
46
processes. The London Borough Estimates based on the APS 2008 95%
confidence interval are shown below.
Table 25 Latin Share of Population Based
Latin American Population of London 2008
Central
Lower
Upper
Total
84,310
73,164
95,786
Latin Population 2008
79,296
70,098
88,494
5,014
3,066
7,292
Latin Share of London Population based
Latin Irregular Population 2008
London Borough
City of London
Barking and Dagenham
Barnet
Bexley
0
0
0
698
606
793
3,973
3,448
4,513
308
267
350
Brent
7,441
6,457
8,454
Bromley
1,185
1,029
1,347
Camden
4,973
4,315
5,649
Croydon
1,600
1,388
1,817
Ealing
1,534
1,331
1,742
Enfield
527
457
598
Greenwich
1,062
921
1,206
Hackney
3,564
3,092
4,049
Hammersmith and Fulham
2,633
2,285
2,991
Haringey
2,683
2,328
3,048
Harrow
283
246
322
Havering
234
203
266
Hillingdon
191
166
217
Hounslow
1,009
876
1,146
Islington
3,788
3,288
4,304
Kensington and Chelsea
5,212
4,523
5,922
Kingston upon Thames
1,044
906
1,186
Lambeth
7,500
6,508
8,520
Lewisham
3,883
3,369
4,411
Merton
1,993
1,729
2,264
Newham
3,631
3,151
4,125
435
377
494
Richmond upon Thames
2,655
2,304
3,016
Southwark
5,893
5,114
6,695
952
826
1,081
Tower Hamlets
2,476
2,148
2,813
Waltham Forest
2,534
2,199
2,879
Wandsworth
3,372
2,926
3,831
Westminster
5,047
4,380
5,734
Redbridge
Sutton
Note
Lower and Upper APS 2008 estimates are based on a 95% confidence Interval
47
At 95% CI coefficient of variation is +/-11.6% or +/- 9,198
Latin share of London Population 1.05%
Irregular upper and lower based on GLA 2009 values
London Borough Distribution based on APS 2004-2008 average
This estimate of 5,014 Latin American irregulars in London is 5.9 % of the
total central estimate of 84,310 (4.2% lower based on 3,066 / 73,164, and
7.6% upper based on 7,292 / 95,786). These irregular estimates seem low
relative to the Latin American survey source validation of 19% irregular.
B. Latin Population Estimate based on Proportion of the Foreign Born
Population
Another method of estimating the Latin American irregular population of the
UK and London is to use the Latin American proportion of the foreign born
population in the estimate rather than the Latin American proportion of the
total population, as given above.
All irregular population are likely to be foreign born with the exception of UK
born children of the irregular population who are also classed as irregular.
For this reason they were subtracted from the 2007 GLA estimates to leave
just the foreign born irregular population in 2007. This was projected forward
one year to 2008 based on the growth per year over the 6 year period 20012007. The national irregular foreign-born population stock at 2008 is then
derived.
The UK Latin American proportion of the foreign born population (2 percent) is
then applied to the total irregular foreign-born population. This produces a
Latin American UK central irregular estimate of 11,000.
The 2008 Latin American born population of London is 3.18 percent of the
total foreign-born population (see Annex C table 34). This method produces a
higher estimate of the irregular Latin population of London of 12,900 (lower of
8,200 and upper of 18,200).
48
Table 23 Latin Irregular Population 2008 based on Foreign Born
Proportions
Latin Irregular Population Estimate 2008 (Thousands) based on Foreign Born
Central
Lower
Higher
1 Irregular 2001
UK
430.0
310.0
570.0
2 Irregular 2007
618.0
417.0
863.0
3 UK-born Children
85.0
44.0
144.0
4 Irregular foreign born 2007
533.0
373.0
719.0
5 Change foreign born 2007-2001 (6 year period)
103.0
63.0
149.0
17.2
10.5
24.8
550.2
383.5
743.8
11.0
7.7
14.9
Central
Lower
Higher
1 Irregular 2001
229.0
215.0
243.0
2 Irregular 2007
442.0
281.0
630.0
61.0
30.0
105.0
4 Irregular foreign born 2007
381.0
251.0
525.0
5 Change in foreign born 2007-2001 (6 year period)
152.0
36.0
282.0
6 Growth per year 2001-2007
25.3
6.0
47.0
7 Irregular Foreign 2008 (4+ 6)
406.3
257.0
572.0
12.9
8.2
18.2
6 growth per year 2001-2007
7 Irregular Foreign Born 2008 (4+ 6)
Latin Proportion of UK foreign born
8 Latin Irregular 2008 (7*8)
2.00%
London
3 UK-born Children
Latin Proportion of London Foreign Born Population
8 Latin Irregular 2008 (7*8)
3.18%
Notes: 000s
Based on GLA (2009) estimates
Latin foreign born proportions derived from LFS/APS 2008
The UK estimates are smaller than the London estimates as they are based
on a lower proportion of only a slightly larger UK irregular estimate.
Latin American proportions of the foreign born are more representative than
that of the whole population which included UK born. However, this Latin
irregular estimate does exclude UK born children to Latin American irregulars
and is on the conservative side.
49
Table 26 Latin Population 2008 Estimate based on share of foreign born
population
Central
Lower
Higher
UK
1 Latin American Population 2008 (APS)
130,186 130,186 130,186
2 Irregular Stock 2008 (Foreign Born Table X)
550,168 383,500 743,833
3 Latin Proportion of All UK Foreign Born Population APS 2008 (2.00%)
4 Latin Irregular Population Share (2*3)
5 Total Latin Population (1+4)
11,003
7,670
14,877
141,189 137,856 145,063
London
1 Latin American Population 2008 (APS)
2 Irregular Stock 2008 (Foreign Born Table X)
79,296
79,296
79,296
406,333 257,000 572,000
3 Latin Proportion of All London Foreign Born Population APS 2008 (3.18%)
4 Latin Irregular Population Share (2*3)
12,921
8,173
18,190
5 Total Latin Population (1+4)
92,217
87,469
97,486
This method takes the APS 2008 Latin American population estimate for
London of 79,296 and adds to this the Latin American irregular population
share of the GLA totals, based on the 3.18 percent proportion of the Latin
American population within the total foreign born population of London in
2008. This produces a Latin American irregular population of London of
12,921 with a lower estimate of 8,173 and an upper estimate of 18,190. While
these figures exclude estimates of UK-born children to Latin American
irregulars they are higher than the estimates based on the Latin proportion of
the total London population (1 percent).
Based in the central 2008 APS London population estimate of 79,296 this
method produces a Latin American population of 92,217 with a lower estimate
of 87,469 and an upper estimate of 97,486 based on the APS London total.
However, confidence intervals can also be applied to the 79,296 APS 2008
central estimate to account for further variation in the estimate.
This estimate of 12,921 Latin American irregulars in London is 14 % of the
total central estimate of estimate of 92,217 (10,4% lower based on 8,173 /
78,271, and 17% upper based on 18,190 / 106,684).
The London Borough Estimates based on the APS 2008 95% confidence
interval are shown below.
50
Table 27 Latin Foreign Born Population Based
Latin American Population of London 2008
Central
Lower
Upper
Latin Share of Foreign Born Based
Total
92,217 78,271 106,684
Latin Population 2008
79,296 70,098
88,494
Latin Irregular Population 2008
12,921
18,190
8,173
London Borough
City of London
0
0
0
764
648
883
Barnet
4,345
3,688
5,027
Bexley
337
286
389
Brent
8,139
6,908
9,416
Bromley
1,297
1,100
1,500
Camden
5,439
4,616
6,292
Croydon
1,750
1,485
2,024
Ealing
1,678
1,424
1,941
Enfield
576
489
666
Greenwich
1,161
986
1,343
Hackney
3,898
3,308
4,509
Hammersmith and Fulham
2,879
2,444
3,331
Haringey
2,934
2,491
3,395
Harrow
310
263
358
Havering
256
217
296
Hillingdon
209
177
241
Hounslow
1,104
937
1,277
Islington
4,144
3,517
4,794
Kensington and Chelsea
5,701
4,839
6,596
Kingston upon Thames
1,142
969
1,321
Lambeth
8,203
6,962
9,490
Lewisham
4,247
3,605
4,913
Merton
2,180
1,850
2,521
Newham
3,972
3,371
4,595
476
404
550
Richmond upon Thames
2,903
2,464
3,359
Southwark
6,446
5,471
7,457
Sutton
1,041
883
1,204
Tower Hamlets
2,708
2,298
3,133
Waltham Forest
2,772
2,353
3,207
Wandsworth
3,688
3,131
4,267
Westminster
5,521
4,686
6,387
Barking and Dagenham
Redbridge
Note
Lower and Upper APS 2008 estimates are based on a 95% confidence
Interval
At 95% CI coefficient of variation is +/-11.6% or +/- 9,198
Latin share of irregular foreign born population 3.2% (based on GLA
estimates)
Irregular upper and lower based on GLA 2009 values
London Borough Distribution based on APS 2004-2008 average
51
C. Latin Population Estimate based on proportion of Non EU Foreign
Born Population
This method takes the APS 2008 Latin American population estimate for
London of 79,296 and adds to this the Latin American irregular population
share of the GLA totals, based on the 4.2 percent proportion of the Latin
American population within the non EU foreign born population of London in
2008. This produces a Latin American irregular population of London of
17,100 with a lower estimate of 10,800 and an upper estimate of 24,100.
While these figures exclude estimates of UK-born children to Latin American
irregulars they are higher than the estimates based on the Latin proportion of
the foreign born London population (3.2 percent).
Table 33
Latin Irregular Population Estimate 2008 (Thousands) based on Non EU Foreign Born
Central
Lower
Higher
1 Irregular 2001
UK
430.0
310.0
570.0
2 Irregular 2007
618.0
417.0
863.0
85.0
44.0
144.0
4 Irregular foreign born 2007
533.0
373.0
719.0
5 Change foreign born 2007-2001 (6 year period)
103.0
63.0
149.0
17.2
10.5
24.8
550.2
383.5
743.8
15.9
11.1
21.5
Central
Lower
Higher
1 Irregular 2001
229.0
215.0
243.0
2 Irregular 2007
442.0
281.0
630.0
61.0
30.0
105.0
4 Irregular foreign born 2007 (2-3)
381.0
251.0
525.0
5 Change in foreign born 2007-2001 (6 year period)
152.0
36.0
282.0
25.3
6.0
47.0
406.3
257.0
572.0
17.1
10.8
24.1
3 UK-born Children
6 growth per year 2001-2007
7 Irregular Foreign Born 2008 (4+ 6)
Latin Proportion of UK foreign born
8 Latin Irregular 2008 (7*8)
2.89%
London
3 UK-born Children
6 growth per year 2001-2007
7 Irregular Foreign 2008 (4+ 6)
Latin Proportion of London Foreign Born Population
8 Latin Irregular 2008 (7*8)
4.22%
Notes: 000s
Based on GLA (2009) estimates
52
Latin foreign born proportions derived from LFS/APS 2008
Table 34 Latin American Population of London - Non EU foreign-born
based
Latin American Population of London 2008
Central
Lower
Upper
Total
96,396
80,898
112,594
Latin Population 2008
79,296
70,098
88,494
Latin Irregular Population 2008
17,100
10,800
24,100
0
0
0
Latin Share of Non EU Foreign Born Based 4.44%
London Borough
City of London
Barking and Dagenham
Barnet
Bexley
798
670
932
4,542
3,812
5,306
352
295
411
Brent
8,508
7,140
9,937
Bromley
1,355
1,137
1,583
Camden
5,685
4,771
6,641
Croydon
1,829
1,535
2,136
Ealing
1,754
1,472
2,048
Enfield
602
505
703
Greenwich
1,214
1,019
1,418
Hackney
4,074
3,419
4,759
Hammersmith and Fulham
3,010
2,526
3,516
Haringey
3,067
2,574
3,583
Harrow
324
272
378
Havering
268
225
313
Hillingdon
218
183
255
Hounslow
1,154
968
1,348
Islington
4,332
3,635
5,059
Kensington and Chelsea
5,960
5,001
6,961
Kingston upon Thames
1,194
1,002
1,395
Lambeth
8,575
7,196
10,015
Lewisham
4,439
3,726
5,185
Merton
2,278
1,912
2,661
Newham
4,152
3,484
4,849
Redbridge
497
417
581
Richmond upon Thames
3,035
2,547
3,545
Southwark
6,738
5,654
7,870
Sutton
1,088
913
1,271
Tower Hamlets
2,831
2,376
3,306
Waltham Forest
2,898
2,432
3,385
Wandsworth
3,856
3,236
4,504
Westminster
5,771
4,843
6,741
53
Note
Lower and Upper APS 2008 estimates are based on a 95% confidence Interval
At 95% CI coefficient of variation is +/-11.6% or +/- 9,198
Latin share of Non EU Born London Population 4.22%
Irregular upper and lower based on GLA 2009 values
London Borough Distribution based on APS 2004-2008 average
Based in the central 2008 APS London population estimate of 79,296 this
method produces a Latin American population of 96,396 with a lower estimate
of 80,898 and an upper estimate of 112,594 based on the APS London total.
D. Latin Population Estimate based on the proportion of Removals and
Voluntary Departures
This method uses Home Office data on the Latin American proportion of total
2008 removals and voluntary departures in order to estimate proportion of
Latin American irregulars from the GLA total. This proportion is 12.1% in
2008.
However, not all the removals and voluntary departures are by Latin American
irregulars who are living within the UK as some will be removed from the UK
at point of entry. To this extent this is an overestimate of the Latin American
irregular population of London
Table 28 Latin American UK Removals and Voluntary Departures
Removals and voluntary departures from the United Kingdom (1)(2)(3), by country of nationality, 2006 to
2008
2006
asylum
Total
2007
non-asylum
18,280
Total asylum
45,585 63,865
13,705
2008
non-asylum
Total asylum
49,660 63,365
12,875
non-asylum
Total
55,105 67,980
LA total
415
8,065
8,475
265
8,460
8,730
220
8,015
8,250
LA %
2.3
17.7
13.3
1.9
17.0
13.8
1.7
14.5
12.1
includes those returned at port of entry
so not all UK irregular
Source: Home Office 2009
There is a question of how well this method represents the Latin American
proportion of the London irregular population, since it is an overall UK figure
rather than a London figure, and is only given for certain Latin American
nationalities. The nationality break down form this source is only given for
Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Mexico, and is only given for 2006 to
2008.
54
Table 29 Removals and Voluntary Departures Based Estimate
Latin Irregular Population Estimate 2008 (Thousands)
based on Share of Removals and Voluntary Departures
UK
Central
Lower
Higher
Irregular 2001
430.0
310.0
570.0
Irregular 2007
618.0
417.0
863.0
85.0
44.0
144.0
Irregular foreign born 2007
533.0
373.0
719.0
Change foreign born 2007-2001 (6 year period)
103.0
63.0
149.0
17.2
10.5
24.8
550.2
383.5
743.8
66.6
46.4
90.0
Central
Lower
Higher
Irregular 2001
229.0
215.0
243.0
Irregular 2007
442.0
281.0
630.0
UK-born Children
growth per year 2001-2007
Irregular Foreign Born 2008 (4+ 6)
Latin Proportion of Removals and Voluntary Departures
Latin Irregular 2008 (7*8)
12.10%
London
UK-born Children
61.0
30.0
105.0
Irregular foreign born 2007 (2-3)
381.0
251.0
525.0
Change in foreign born 2007-2001 (6 year period)
152.0
36.0
282.0
25.3
6.0
47.0
406.3
257.0
572.0
49.2
31.1
69.2
growth per year 2001-2007
Irregular Foreign 2008 (4+ 6)
Latin Proportion of Removals and Voluntary Departures
Latin Irregular 2008 (7*8)
12.10%
Notes: 000s
Based on GLA (2009) estimates
Latin proportions derived from Home Office figures 2008
The London Borough Estimates based on the APS 2008 95% confidence
interval are shown below.
55
Table 30 London Borough estimate based on Removals and Departures
Latin American Population of London 2008
Latin Share of Removals and Departures
Based
Central
Lower
Upper
Total
128,496
101,198
157,694
Latin Population 2008
79,296
70,098
88,494
Latin Irregular Population 2008
49,200
31,100
69,200
London Borough
City of London
0
0
0
Barking and Dagenham
1,064
838
1,306
Barnet
6,055
4,769
7,431
Bexley
469
369
576
11,341
8,932
13,918
Bromley
1,807
1,423
2,217
Camden
7,579
5,969
9,301
Croydon
2,438
1,920
2,992
Ealing
2,337
1,841
2,869
Enfield
803
632
985
Greenwich
1,618
1,274
1,986
Hackney
5,431
4,277
6,665
Hammersmith and Fulham
4,012
3,160
4,924
Haringey
Brent
4,089
3,220
5,018
Harrow
431
340
530
Havering
357
281
438
Hillingdon
291
229
357
Hounslow
1,538
1,211
1,887
Islington
5,774
4,547
7,086
Kensington and Chelsea
7,944
6,257
9,749
Kingston upon Thames
1,592
1,253
1,953
Lambeth
11,430
9,002
14,027
Lewisham
5,917
4,660
7,262
Merton
3,037
2,392
3,727
Newham
5,534
4,359
6,792
663
522
813
Richmond upon Thames
4,046
3,186
4,965
Southwark
8,981
7,073
11,022
Sutton
1,450
1,142
1,780
Tower Hamlets
3,773
2,972
4,631
Waltham Forest
3,863
3,042
4,741
Wandsworth
5,140
4,048
6,307
Redbridge
56
Westminster
7,693
6,059
9,441
Note
Lower and Upper APS 2008 estimates are based on a 95% confidence Interval
At 95% CI coefficient of variation is +/-11.6% or +/- 9,198
Latin share of irregular Removals & Voluntary Departures population 12.1%
(based on GLA estimates)
Irregular upper and lower based on GLA 2009 values
London Borough Distribution based on APS 2004-2008 average
This estimate of 49,200 Latin American irregulars in London is 38 % of the
total central estimate of 128,496 (31% lower based on 31,100 / 101,198, and
43.8% upper based on 69,200 / 157,694). These irregular estimates seem
high relative to the Latin American survey source validation of 19% irregular
(see below).
E. Latin Population Estimate based Survey Questionnaire
Though not an official data source, this method derives the estimate of the
Latin irregular population of London directly from the survey questionnaire
proportion. This can be used to validate the estimates from official data
sources. The survey asks respondents what their status is currently, and
what their status was on arrival in the UK. All those who responded as
arriving without valid documentation or not currently having valid
documentation, are defined as irregular.
Table 31: Latin American Irregular Transitions
Irregular Transitions Latin American Population of London 2009 Survey Data
Arrival Status
Current Status
%
Irregular
26 Irregular
Regular
13 50 still Irregular
13 50 regularised
Regular
932 Irregular
Regular
169 18 became irregular
763 82 remained regular
Total
958 Irregular
Regular
182 19 currently irregular
776 81 currently regular
Note
irregular defined as arriving without valid documentation or not currently having
valid documentation
Source: survey questionnaires 2009
excludes missing values
57
In total 19 percent of the Latin American questionnaire sample have a current
irregular status, defined as not currently having valid documentation. The
remaining 81 percent have current valid documentation.
Of the currently irregular population of 182 some 93 percent arrived with valid
documentation for their stay in the UK and the 7 percent arrived without valid
documentation. This suggests 93 percent of the current irregular population
of 182 transitioned into irregularity from being regular, and having valid
documentation on arrival.
Of the currently regular population of 776 in the sample 2 percent arrived with
invalid documentation and transitioned from being an irregular to being a
regular. The remaining 98 percent of the regular population were regular on
arrival.
In total nearly 1 in 5 Latin Americans in London are classified as being
irregular in the sense of not having valid documentation to support their stay.
Assuming that the APS 2008 contains no irregular population these
proportions can be used in estimation. The official total of 79,296 only
represents 81% of the actual total including irregulars (assuming irregulars
comprise 19% of the total). The actual total is thus estimated to be 97,896
(79,296 / 0.81). This gives a total irregular estimate of 18,600 (97,896 –
79,296) for the central estimate (16,443 lower and 20,758 upper irregual
estimates).
Table 32 Survey Questionnaire Based Estimate
Latin American Population of London 2008
Central
Lower
Upper
Total
97,896
86,541
109,252
Latin Population 2008
79,296
70,098
88,494
Latin Irregular Population 2008
18,600
16,443
20,758
0
0
0
Survey Irregular Proportion Based 19%
London Borough
City of London
Barking and Dagenham
Barnet
Bexley
810
716
904
4,613
4,077
5,148
357
315
398
Brent
8,640
7,638
9,642
Bromley
1,377
1,217
1,536
Camden
5,773
5,104
6,443
Croydon
1,857
1,642
2,072
Ealing
1,781
1,575
1,988
Enfield
Greenwich
611
540
682
1,232
1,090
1,375
58
Hackney
4,137
3,657
4,617
Hammersmith and Fulham
3,056
2,702
3,411
Haringey
3,115
2,754
3,477
Harrow
329
291
367
Havering
272
240
303
Hillingdon
222
196
248
Hounslow
1,171
1,035
1,307
Islington
4,399
3,889
4,909
Kensington and Chelsea
6,053
5,350
6,755
Kingston upon Thames
1,213
1,072
1,353
Lambeth
8,708
7,698
9,719
Lewisham
4,509
3,986
5,032
Merton
2,314
2,045
2,582
Newham
4,216
3,727
4,705
Redbridge
505
447
564
Richmond upon Thames
3,082
2,725
3,440
Southwark
6,843
6,049
7,637
Sutton
1,105
977
1,233
Tower Hamlets
2,875
2,541
3,208
Waltham Forest
2,943
2,602
3,285
Wandsworth
3,915
3,461
4,370
Westminster
5,861
5,181
6,540
Note
Lower and Upper APS 2008 estimates are based on a 95% confidence Interval
At 95% CI coefficient of variation is +/-11.6% or +/- 9,198
Latin irregulars from the Questionnaire Survey population are 19%
Irregular upper and lower based on GLA 2009 values
London Borough Distribution based on APS 2004-2008 average
This estimates shows the London Latin American population to be 97,896,
with a lower estimate of 86,541 and a higher estimate of 109,252.
Irregular Estimate Validation
In order to validate the different estimates of Latin American irregulars from
official data sources, the differing Latin proportionate estimates (eg of the total
population, foreign born population, non European Union (EU) foreign born
population, and the removals and voluntary departures) are compared to the
estimate obtained directly from the questionnaire survey (19%) applied to the
APS 2008 estimate.
59
Table 35: Summary of Latin London Irregular Population Estimates
Estimates of the Latin Irregular Population of London 2008
A Latin share of London Population 1.05% (based on GLA estimates)
Central
Lower Upper
5,014
3,066
7,292
B Latin share of Foreign born population 3.2% (based on GLA estimates)
12,921
8,173 18,190
C Latin share of Non EU Foreign born population 4.2% (based on GLA estimates)
17,100 10,800 24,100
D Latin share of Removals & Voluntary Departures population 12.1% (based on GLA estimates)
49,200 31,100 69,200
E Latin irregulars from the Questionnaire Survey population are 19% (based on APS 2008)
18,600 16,443 20,758
Notes
Irregular upper and lower based on GLA 2009 values
GLA 2009 based estimates A, B, C, D
estimate E assumes APS contains no irregulars
Survey validation of the central estimates from official data sources suggests
the Latin share of the Non EU foreign born population based method to be
close to the survey derived estimates, giving a difference of 1,500 (18,600 –
17,100) which represents a slight under-estimate.
The estimate based on the Latin proportion of Non EU foreign born seems to
be a more valid estimate compared to the sample survey data irregular
estimate.
Method 2: Estimates Based on Total International Migration Methods
TIM Type Estimate 1
This method takes the 2001 Census Estimate of Latin Americans in England
and Wales, and adjusts this GLA total for the missing Paraguay, Belize and
DR population, as this sub-group are not contained within the GLA special
census estimate (GLA 2005). This adjustment is 0.9 % and is based on the
proportion of this sub population in the Latin American IPS in migrant
population between 2001 and 2008 (the only data source disaggregated by
Latin country over the period).
The next stage adds to this population the net in migration flow into the UK
from the International Passenger Survey between 2001-2008, an estimate of
some 16,605 net in-migrants over the period.
60
Table 36 Latin Population 2008 M2 Estimate
1
2001 Census Estimate of Latin Population England & Wales
58,411
2
Adjust for missing Paraguay, Belize & DR population
IPS proportion Paraguay, Belize & DR = 0.9% of total 2001-2008 in migration
(444/50,656)
3
Total Latin Population 2001 (1+2)
58,923
4
Latin Net Migration Estimate 2001-2008 (cumulative)
16,605
5
Latin IN change 2001-2008
50,656
6
Latin Out change 2001-2008
34,051
512
Irregulars 2001
No study of unauthorised migrant undercount in UK census 2001
ONS suggest 10, 20% as being appropriate (Woodbridge 2005)
7
10 percent
5,892
8
20 percent
11,784
9
Irregulars 2001-2008 (GLA Latin national share)
1,429
10 Total Latin Population UK 2008 (3+4+7+9)
82,849
11 London Proportion of England & Wales Latin Americans 2008 APS (10 * 0.63)
52,195
(79,296 / 126,619 = 63%)
The next stage adjusts for Irregulars migrants. This comprises two parts, the
first is the 2001 irregular population. The 2001 Census is adjusted for
undercounts generally, but not for foreign-born unauthorised population, this
is estimated by ONS to be between 10% and 20% (Woodbridge, 2005). This
estimate uses the 10% value of the Latin population (5,892). The second
stage is to estimate the 2001 to 2008 irregular Latin Population, which from
before was nationally estimated at 1,429 based on the 0.22% Latin share of
the total population in 2008.
The London share of the England and Wales Latin Population of 2008 is
estimated from the APS 2008 at 63% and this is applied to the UK total giving
a London estimate of 52,195 Latin Americans in 2008. This estimate is a lot
lower than the direct APS estimate.
TIM Type Estimate 2
This method takes the 2001 Census estimate of Latin Americans in England
and Wales, and adjusts this GLA total for the missing Paraguay, Belize and
DR population, as this sub-group are not contained within the GLA special
census estimate (GLA 2005). This adjustment is 0.9 % and is based on the
proportion of this sub population in the Latin American IPS in migrant
population between 2001 and 2008.
61
The next stage adds to this population the net in migration flow into the UK
from the International Passenger Survey between 2001-2008, an estimate of
some 16,605 net in migrants over the period.
The next stage adjusts for irregulars migrants in 2001 as above. This is
estimated by ONS to be between 10% and 20% (Woodbridge, 2005). This
estimate used the 10% value of the Latin population (5,892).
The next stage adjusts for possible irregular visitor switchers from the IPS
visitor flows over the period 2001-2008. There were some 3,110,521 (3a)
Latin American visitors to the UK over this period and the proportion who
overstay and become migrants is likely to be very sensitive to this number and
proportion. This was also estimated using the Home Office passenger visitor
estimate 2001-2008 of 2,120,535 (3b)
The ONS suggest that in 2007 some 13% of in visitors became migrants, and
some 11% of out visitors became migrants and if these proportions are
applied to the whole period there could have been 404,363 (3b 275,670) in
visitor switchers, and 82,408 out visitor switchers over the period, giving a net
321,960 (3b 193,262) irregular migrants inflows into the UK based on this
type of switching.
These figures seem quite high for Latin Americans and it would be good to
have evidence of the proportion of visitors to overstayed from the survey
questionnaire itself, as little is known of this proportion from other sources.
In addition to this there are also migrant switchers where migrants entering
the UK (and UK residents leaving the UK) for 12 months or more decided to
stay for less than 12 months and effectively became visitors. ONS suggest
that over the period July to December 2007 that 3.9% out migrants became
visitors, and 4.2% of in migrants became visitors.
If these rates are applied to the migrant flows for the period 2001-2008 some
2,128 in migrants became visitors and 1,328 out migrants became visitors,
suggesting a net migrant switcher total of 800 for the period.
Table 37 Latin Population 2008 M3A and M3B Estimate
1
2001 Census Estimate of Latin Population England & Wales
2
Adjust for missing Paraguay, Belize & DR population
3a
3b
58,411
58,411
512
512
IPS proportion Para, Bel & DR = 0.9% of total 2001-2008 in migration (444/50,656)
3
Total Latin Population 2001 (1+2)
58,923
58,923
4
Latin Net Migration Estimate 2001-2008 (cumulative)
16,605
16,605
5
Latin IN change 2001-2008
50,656
50,656
6
Latin Out change 2001-2008
34,051
34,051
62
Irregulars 2001
No study of unauthorised migrant undercount in UK census 2001
ONS suggest 10, 20% as being appropriate (Woodbridge 2005)
7
10 percent
5,892
5,892
8
20 percent
11,784
11,784
9
Visitor Switchers Flows 2001-2008 (Visitors who became migrants 10-11)
321,960
193,262
3,110,521
2,120,535
404,363
275,670
749,164
749,164
82,408
82,408
800
800
50,656
50,656
2,128
2,128
In flow visitors from Latin America 2001-2008 (IPS)
10 13% of IN visitors (2007 figure applied as average rate ONS, 2008)
Out flow of Latin UK resident visitors 2001-2008
11 11 % Out visitors (2007 figure applied as average rate for period ONS, 2008)
12 Migrant Switcher Flows 2001-2008 (Migrants who become visitors 13-14)
IN migrants who become visitors
13 4.2% of inflow July-Dec 2007 (applying 2007 as average rate for period)
34,051
34,051
14 3.9% of outflow (July-Dec 2007) (applying 2007 as average rate for period)
OUT migrants who became visitors
1,328
1,328
15 Net natural Increase in Latin Population 2001-2008 (regular + irregular)
7,905
4,901
11,257
6,978
3,352
2,077
16 Total Latin Population UK 2008 (3+4+7+9-12+15)
410,485
278,7837
17 London Proportion of Nation Latin Americans 2008 APS (16 * 0.63)
258,606
175,633
Birth adjustment 2001-2008 (87.5 per 1000 foreign born women aged 15-44, ONS 2009)
Mortality adjustment 2001-2008 (9.9 per 1000 population UK ONS data) 3,187 for 321,960
Birth rate and death rate figures can be applied over the period to find the
Latin American natural increase in the regular and irregular population.
There is evidence from the registration of births of the differing fertility rates
between UK-born and foreign-born women, but not for Latin American women
in the UK. It is suggested that over the period 2004 to 2007 foreign-born
women have a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of about 2.5 children per woman,
while that of UK-born women is 1.7 per woman (ONS, 2009).
Age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) are expressed as the number of live births
per 1000 women for different age groups between 15 and 44 years of age.
For UK born women this is estimated at 57.8 for all age groups, while for
foreign-born women this is estimated at 87.5 (ONS 2009).
Taking the additional Latin American population of the UK estimate at 338,565
(3b 209, 867) (net migrants (4) + switchers (9)) and dividing by 2 (based on
APS 2008 50% women) gives an estimate of the extra Latin women in the UK
of 169,283 (3b 104,934). Those aged between 15-44 are derived by applying
the average APS 2004-2008 rate of 0.76 (APS estimate of those aged
between 15-44 is 76% over 2004 –2008 period) for London to this population
to give an estimate of 128,654 (3b 79,749) for extra Latin women aged
between 15-44 in the UK. Applying a birth rate of 87.5 per 1000 women to
this group produces an estimate of 11,257 (3b 6,978) births over the period
63
2001-2008. However, it would be useful to estimate this from the
questionnaire survey, as little evidence exists for Latin American women in
the UK.
Death rates in the UK varied between about 10.5 per 1000 population in 2001
to 9.7 in 2008 with an average of 9.9 per 1000 population for the period as a
whole. While death rates are not Latin specific they can be used in estimates.
A death rate of 9.9 per 1000 is applied to the extra Latin population of 338,565
(3b 209,867) giving an estimate of 3,352 (3b 2,077) deaths over the period
2001-2008. This suggests a possible natural increase in the Latin population
of the UK over the period 2001-2008 of 7,905 (3b 4,901).
Though highly sensitive to proportions of overstayers, the 3a method
produces a UK estimate of a possible 410,485 Latin Americans. The London
proportion of this total is estimated to be 258,605 and is the largest of all
estimates. The 3b method using the Home Office passenger figures produce
a lower UK estimate of 278,783 and a London estimate of 175,633.
64
Estimating the Second Generation Latin Americans in London
Second generation Latin American are defined as UK-born London residents
who have at least one parent born in one of the 20 Latin American countries
used in this analysis. This section explores ways of estimating the second
generation of Latin Americans in London from official data. There are a
number of different methods considered below all of which give different
estimates depending on assumptions and omissions contained within the
available data.
Fertility Rate Method
Women’s reproductive age is generally regarded as between the ages of 15
to 44 in fertility rates estimations (ONS, 2009). Based on place of birth being
in a Latin American country the weighted London Latin American population is
estimated to be 79,296 in 2008. The APS estimates the number of Latin born
women of reproductive age between 15 and 44 as some 29,733.
Table 38 London Latin Born Population by Age and Sex 2008
Age Bands
Male Female
All
0-15
3,661
2,308 5,969
16-17
515
373
888
18-19
1,068
0 1,068
20-24
6,453
4,615 11,068
25-29
7,419
8,892 16,311
30-34
6,880
5,871 12,751
35-39
2,931
4,912 7,843
40-44
6,035
5,070 11,105
45-49
1,328
2,602 3,930
50-54
1,337
1,611 2,948
55-59
1,001
1,837 2,838
60-64
472
618 1,090
65-99
542
945 1,487
ALL
39,642 39,654 79,296
Source: APS 2008
The ONS have calculated age specific fertility rates by five-year age groups
for UK born and foreign-born women for 2007. This is estimated from birth
registrations and the APS population estimates (ONS, 2009).
Age specific fertility rates (ASFR) are useful for comparing the reproductive
behaviour of women at different ages. They are derived by dividing the
number of live births in one year to mothers in each age group, by the number
of women in the population of that age group. Rates are expressed per 1,000
women in the age group (ONS, 2009).
65
Total Fertility Rates (TFR) are related to the ASFR. The TFR is the average
number of children that a group of women would each have if they
experienced the ASFR for a particular year throughout their reproductive lives.
A TFR of 1.9 in 2007 means that a group of women would each have 1.9
children during their lifetimes based solely on the 2007 ASFR, reflecting the
intensity of childbearing and the rate at which the population is replacing itself
(ONS, 2009).
The TRF provides a snap shot of the level of fertility in a particular year and
does not necessarily represent the average number of children a group of
women will have over their life-course. The TFR for foreign-born women in
2007 was 2.54 (ONS 2009).
Table 39 Estimated Age Specific Fertility Rates for Women in 2007 - Live
Births Per Thousand Women
Age Group
UK Born
Foreign Born
Under 20
29
35
20-24
70
105
25-29
95
130
30-34
100
135
35-39
50
70
40 +
10
20
Source ONS, 2009
Applying these fertility rates to the 2008 Latin born London female population
of 29,733 suggests there would be an estimated 2,891 live births in London
from this population component in 2008.
Table 40 Estimate of Second Generation UK born London children to
Latin Women
Age Group
Women 1000s
Foreign Born ASFR Women X ASFR
Under 20
0.373
35
20-24
4.615
105
484.6
25-29
8.892
130
1,156.0
30-34
5.871
135
792.6
35-39
4.912
70
343.8
40-44
5.070
20
101.4
All
13.1
2,891.4
Annual birth estimations depend on the rates applied and the population size
and reproductive structure and the size of the irregular population. If the
same APS female age distributions are applied to the irregular London Latin
American estimate total Second generation UK born rise to a central estimate
of 3,244 (3,114 lower and 3,388 higher).
66
Table 41 Estimates of Irregulars UK Born
Latin Irregular Population Foreign Born Based
Central
Lower Upper
12,921
8,173 18,190
APS % Women 0.50
6,461
4,087
9,095
APS % 15-44 0.75
4,845
3,065
6,821
UK born irregulars
353
223
497
UK born non irregulars
2891
2891
2891
All UK Born
3,244
3,114
3,388
From these data it is also possible to derive a crude 2008 fertility rate for Latin
American women of reproductive age between 15-44 in London. In 2008
there were 1,911 births recorded to Latin American mothers, while the APS
2008 suggest there to be 29,733 women of reproductive age. Dividing the
two values gives the number of births per mother (1,913 / 29,733 = 0.064) and
expressed per 1000 women gives an average total fertility rate of 64 per 1000
Latin American women in 2008.
However, using birth statistics to validate these estimates indicates that the
actual number of births to Latin American born mothers in London in 2008
was 1,913 suggesting this to be an over estimate. Latin mothers seem to be
having less children than the ASFR for all foreign-born mother suggests, so
cumulative stock estimates based on these will be over estimates even if
ASFR rates for earlier years were obtained.
London School Pupil Data
This method attempts to estimate the second generation Latin Americans in
London from the Annual School Census. This DCSF Census gathers
information on pupils aged 5 and over in primary, secondary and special
schools of compulsory school ages between 5 and 16. Information on first
language spoken and ethnic group are used to estimate Latin American pupils
in school in January 2008.
Ethnic group tables crossed by Spanish and Portuguese first language of
pupil are used to estimate the Latin American pupil population of London in
2008 as shown in the table below. The majority of Latin American language
speakers are of an ‘Other White’ ethnic group, 42 percent, which accounts for
most Europeans. The Latin American population is assumed to be mainly
contained within the ‘Other’ ethnic group category. This group accounts for
26 percent of Latin American speakers (Spanish and Portuguese). This
estimates the number of London Latin American speakers of school age to be
5,254.
67
Table 42 Pupils Resident in London 2008: Language by ethnic group
Ethnic Group
Portuguese
Total pupils
Spanish LA Language
%
11,915
8,647
74
3
77
0.4
1
0
1
0.0
Pakistani
13
6
19
0.1
Other Asian
37
55
92
0.4
1,601
197
1,798
8.7
47
50
97
0.5
647
75
722
3.5
83
63
146
0.7
593
96
689
3.4
67
104
171
0.8
Any other mixed
988
935
1,923
9.4
White British
364
437
801
3.9
2
9
11
0.1
6,091
2,585
8,676
42.2
Indian
Bangladeshi
Black African
Black Caribbean
Black Other
Mixed White and Asian
Mixed White and Black African
Mixed White and Black Caribbean
White Irish
Other White
Chinese
Other (LA)
Information not obtained
20,562 100.0
0
3
3
0.0
1,276
3,978
5,254
25.6
31
51
82
0.4
Source: DCSF, Jan 2008 Annual School Census
Its difficult to know if this is an under or over estimate as 1) not all pupils are
UK born and some will have been foreign born (over estimate), 2) it excludes
the non-pupil second generation who are over compulsory school age of 16
(under estimate), and 3) the ethnic groups are only a rough guide to the Latin
American definition used here as they could also span other groups such as
Black Caribbean, Black Other, Mixed White and Black Caribbean, Any Other
Mixed in addition to the Other category (under estimate).
If these are included in the total an extra 2,913 could be added to this ‘Other’
total of 5,254 pushing the upper estimate of Latin American pupils to about
8,167. These are stock estimates for 2008 of all pupils under 16 and all would
have been born between 1992 and 2003 as the under 5 age group will not yet
have entered school.
Vital Statistics Method
Vital Statistics tables published give live births per year by country of birth of
mother if outside the UK, by nationally and by Local Authority District annually
between 2004-2008. However the geographical categories given for much of
the published data are for large global regions such as New Commonwealth
and Rest of World
Office for National Statistics is Cardiff generously provided more detailed data
tables between 2002 and 2008 on the number of live births in each London
borough by the country of birth of the mother.
These data were extrapolated to cover the period back to 1990 based on
linear trend fitting from the 2002-2008 data. These are shown below.
68
Table 43 London Live births by Latin American Mothers
Latin American Country
Argentina
Belize
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Cuba
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
Total Births
1990-2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2002-2008 1990-2008
na
59
83
84
101
113
129
110
679
na
na
3
2
4
1
9
6
3
28
na
na
28
52
87
96
85
117
119
584
na
na
332
368
428
551
787
802
807
4,075
na
na
52
47
44
44
43
52
46
328
na
na
378
348
344
345
336
308
323
2,382
na
na
5
6
5
4
189
3
1
213
na
na
13
19
14
21
20
14
23
124
na
na
3
3
11
9
69
11
8
114
na
na
263
266
223
196
193
182
167
1,490
na
na
7
5
7
6
8
13
11
57
na
na
3
3
2
5
1
7
5
26
na
na
4
2
2
1
5
4
3
21
na
na
49
60
76
53
80
82
101
501
na
na
2
1
2
3
3
5
7
23
na
na
6
3
2
3
2
5
3
24
na
na
9
2
3
5
1
3
5
28
na
na
66
52
60
85
75
94
73
505
na
na
6
7
8
7
14
15
7
64
na
na
49
62
74
61
76
92
91
505
na
6,350 1,337 1,391 1,480 1,597 2,109 1,944 1,913
11,771
18,121
Source: ONS Vital Statistics on Births
note: 1990-2001 figures are based on Linear extrapolations of 2002-2008 data
LA mothers are those whose country of birth is in one of the 20 countries listed
The data only record birth events for Latin foreign-born mothers at particular
yearly points in time, so its difficult to build up stock measures of second
generation Latin Americans in London from births data alone as some of
these mothers and / or their children may not now be living in London or even
the UK in 2008 (over estimate), and a small proportion may have died (over
estimate). The data also exclude Latin American father registrations where
the mother is not Latin American (under estimate). The extent to which these
influences apply will over and under estimate the size of the second
generation.
Births to Latin American born mothers has been increasing in London from
1,337 in 2002 to 1,913 in 2008, with a peak at 2,109 in 2006. There were
some 11,771 live births recorded to Latin American born mothers in London
between 2002-2008 and extrapolation suggests over the whole period
between 1990-2008 there could have been approximately 18,121 children
born to Latin American mothers in London since 1990. This figure is likely to
be an over estimate as not all those born in London over the period will now
be living in London.
69
Figure 11 Births in London to Latin American Mothers by Country of
Birth of Mother 2002-2008
Latin American mothers born in Brazil, Colombia and Ecuador comprise the
majority of births from Latin American mothers over the period 2002-2008.
The geographical distribution of births to Latin born mothers within London in
2008 gives an indication of the population distribution of Latin mothers within
London. Earlier distributions are less useful as people are more likely to
have moved around since births were recorded.
The London boroughs containing the largest number of UK born children to
Latin American born mothers in 2008 are in Lambeth, Southwark, Brent,
Hackney, Harringey and Wandworth. These are shown in the figure below
70
Figure 12 London Births 2008 by Latin American Country of Birth of
Mother
Over the period 2002 to 2008 some 35 percent of all births from Latin mothers
were from Brazil, followed by Colombia (20 percent) and Ecuador (13
percent). Taking 2008 alone some 42 percent of all Latin mother births in
London were from Brazilian born mothers.
Second Generation Estimate Validation
Some 87 percent of first generation Latin Americans in London arrived after
1990. UK children who were born between 1990 and 2008 will be under 19
years of age and will account for this 87 percent of the second generation
Latin Americans. The remaining 13 percent of the second generation 2008
stock will be over 19 years of age. The problem is how best to estimate the
2008 stock from the little official data available.
It is difficult to obtain a stock estimate from the ASFR as it refers to an over
estimate of the number of children Latin women in 2008 would have, and is
not a cumulative stock estimate for the years up to 2008.
It is also difficult to use the pupil data from the Annual School Census as a
stock measure as it only records first language of pupil by ethnic group.
English speaking second generation pupils will be missed by this data, also
some will be foreign born and not second generation Latin Americans. In
71
addition Latin American could fall within a number of the ethnic group, making
is data unreliable for estimation purposes.
Live UK births from Latin American born mothers is probably the best base
stock estimate but the problem with these data are that not all those born
within London over the period will remain in London. Assumptions need to be
made concerning the proportion of those born in London that have
subsequently moved away by 2008.
Little information exists on Latin American movement out of London. From
the IPS nationality based data over the period 2001-2008 34,051 Latin
Americans out migrated from the UK, over 8 years this is 4,256 per year
(34,051 / 8). Most of these will be from London so as a proportion of the APS
2008 figure this is 5.4% (4,256 / 79.296). This is an under estimate since it is
not based on country of birth, so 0, 10 and 20% applied to second generation
seem reasonable estimates.
The table below estimates the stock of second generation Latin Americans in
London in 2008 assuming that 10 percent (Central), 20% (Lower) and 0%
(Upper) move out of London after birth.
In addition births to Latin American fathers where the mother is not Latin
American will be missed by these data. Those born before 1992 is estimated
at less than 100 per year and going back to 1982 would produce an estimate
of those over 16 to be 1000. Again a 10 and 20 percent rate of out movement
from London is used.
Table 44 Second Generation Latin Americans in London 2008
2008 Estimate of London Stock of Second Generation Latin Americans
Central
Lower
Upper
1 Aged 0-5 (2004-2008)
8,139
7,234
9,043
2 Aged 6-16 (1992-2003)
8,143
7,238
9,048
900
800
1,000
17,182
15,273
19,091
3 Over 16 (1982-1991)
4 Total UK Born
Note
1 2004-2008 ONS Vital Statistics
2002, 2003 ONS Vital Statistics, 1992-2001 extrapolation
2 estimate
3 1982-1991, assumes 100 per year over 10 years = 1000
4 Central assumes 10% move, Lower 20%, Upper 0% move
Estimates of London births to Latin American born mothers since 1990
suggest there to be a possible cumulative stock of 18,121 UK born members
of the Latin American community in London (see Table 43). However, not all
72
these will have remained in London (over estimate), this figure also excludes
second-generation births before 1990, so could be regarded as an upper limit.
The 2008 London stock estimate of second generation Latin Americans has a
central estimate of 17,182 (Lower 15,273 and Upper 19,091) and assumes 10
percent of each cohort component of these births are no long resident in
London.
National Estimates
The proportionate method applied to the UK irregular GLA data produces a
great deal of variation in the irregular estimate for London and the UK due to
the differing relative proportions within London and the wider UK. The London
survey sample undertaken for this project was not able to validate the UK
estimates under this method, so a different approach was adopted.
Crude national estimates were obtained from a shift share approach based on
the assumption that irregular and the second generation estimates for London
are in the same relative proportions as the London to UK APS figures. This
may overestimate the size of the UK Latin American population as the
London/UK proportions of irregulars and second generation may differ from
the overall London/UK APS population proportions. Bearing in mind these
caveats and acknowledging that the margins of error cannot be calculated,
the central estimate for the UK Latin American population in 2008 was
186,469 (see Table below). This suggests that 61% of the UK Latin American
population resides in London.
Table 44a: Estimates of the size of the Latin American population in the UK
2008 based on London proportions
Latin American Population of UK 2008
Total
1 Latin American Population 2008
2 Latin American Irregular Population 2008
3 Latin American Second Generation 2008
Central
Lower
Upper
186,469 163,606 209,999
130,186 119,251 141,122
28,074 18,373 38,432
28,209 25,982 30,445
1. APS 2008 using 95% confidence interval for lower and upper estimates (8.4%)
2. Assumes irregulars are the same share as London proportion of UK APS 2008 estimates
3. Assumes second generation are the same share as London proportion of UK APS 2008 estimates
73
Conclusions
It is not possible to accurately determine the number of Latin Americans in
London from official data sources, as no registration system exists in the UK
which counts all people coming in and out of the country. This research
explores what data sources are available in an attempt to derive a robust
estimate from the APS based on certain assumptions and constraints.
Estimates of the Latin American population of London vary depending on
what official base data sources are used, the adjustment for in/out flows and
the extent to which irregular migrants and the second generation are included
in the estimate and assumptions used.
The approach adopted from the various explorations of available data and
method focussed on a three- stage approach dividing the Latin American
population estimate into different components. First an official robust estimate
of the population from the APS, second, an estimate of the irregular
population consistent with the GLA London irregular population estimate, and
third, an estimate of the second generation.
Even though rounding is not used in this report the estimates are not thought
to be accurate to below 1000 as they are based on APS sample surveys.
This should be born in mind when reading the figures and should be rounded
to the nearest 1000.
The Census estimates the 2001 London population of Latin Americans to be
just 31,211. However, taking the base data from the 2001 Census national
Latin population estimate of 58,411 and adding to this the net in-migration
flow to the UK between 2001 and 2008, given by the IPS of 16,605, gives an
overall national UK Latin American population stock estimate for 2008 of
approximately 75,016 persons. This compares to an APS 2008 estimate of
130,186 for the UK as a whole and is an under estimate.
The London Latin American population total from these estimates can be
derived by applying the APS 2008 London / UK share of approximately 61
percent to this total. This produces a Census 2001 / IPS derived estimate for
London in 2008 of 79,412. This compares with a London 2008 APS estimate
of 79,296, with the APS 2008 likely to be the more robust base figure.
While the Census and IPS can be used to derive the overall Latin American
population totals, and the LFS – APS can be used to distribute this total to
London boroughs, larger base population estimates are obtained directly from
the APS. While the APS gives a reasonably robust overall measure for
London, this is less so for London boroughs and 2004-2008 averages were
thought to be more indicative.
74
All official Latin American base population estimates often exclude the
irregular hidden population. Three additional methods of estimation are
explored which attempt to correct for this.
For London methods based on the irregular population update of APS 2008
data produce a higher estimates than TIM type methods, which are data
hungry and produce estimates with much more variation.
While TIM model type methods attempts to estimate irregular migrants from
visitor overstayer proportions entering the UK form the IPS and Passenger
arrivals data, it produces the highest overall estimate Latin Americans in
London. While this method produces the highest estimates it is very sensitive
to the visitor switcher parameters used, and should be treated with caution.
The more up to date and robust Latin American population estimate for
London, which includes an allowance for irregulars and avoids many of the
problems associated with the IPS are methods based on the APS 2008.
However, the APS 2008 central estimate of 79,296 is drawn from a sample of
Latin Americans in London and has a 95% Confidence Interval coefficient of
variation of 11.6 percent, which corresponds to +/- 9,198 variation. This can
be used to produce an estimate of the upper and lower estimates around this
central estimate of 70,098 lower and 88,494 upper (see table below).
Estimates of the size of the Latin American population in London, which
include irregulars, and the second generation of Latin Americans born in the
UK, can be obtained by combining the three main estimate components.
First, the APS 2008 central estimate of 79,296 used along with the coefficient
of variation to produce an estimate of the upper and lower limits around this
central estimate. It is also assumes irregulars have an incentive to remain
hidden and that the APS contains no irregulars in this estimate.
Second, the irregular Latin American migrants are derived as the share of
Latin Americans as a proportion of London’s Non EU foreign born applied to
the LSE’s central, lower and upper estimate of London’s irregular population,
updated for 2008 and excluding UK-born irregulars.
Third, the second generation Latin Americans are derived based on the
number of live births to Latin American mothers in London between 2002 and
2008, extrapolated back to 1990, with an added component for before 1990
births. The central estimate assumes 10% have left London or the UK, the
upper estimate assumed no migration, while the lower estimate assumes 20%
migration from London and the UK.
Table 45 shows these estimates for 2008 combining the above three
components and gives a central estimate of the size of the 2008 Latin
American community in London of 113,578.
75
Table 45: Estimates of the size of the Latin American community in
London 2008
Estimate From Official Data
Latin American Population of London 2008
Total
1 Latin Population 2008
2 Latin Irregular Population 2008
3 Latin Second Generation 2008
Central
Lower
Upper
113,578
79,296
96,171
70,098
131,685
88,494
17,100
17,182
10,800
15,273
24,100
19,091
Notes
1 APS 2008 using 95% confidence interval for lower and upper estimates
APS 2008 Latin Share of Non EU Foreign Born 4.2% applied to updated GLA central, lower
2 and upper irregular estimates
Second generation estimate from ONS vital stats, central assumes 10% movement out of
3 London, upper 0%, lower 20%
The Latin American population of London is currently a significant part of the
city’s population as a whole, comparable in size to other large migrant and
ethnic groups. However, the population has received much less public
attention than other significant groups in London.
76
References
DWP (2009) National Insurance Number Allocations to Adult Overseas
Nationals Entering the UK: for 2008-2009, Department of Work and Pensions
- DWP.
GLA (2009) Economic impact on the London and UK economy
of an earned regularisation of irregular migrants to the UK, Greater London
Authority - GLA, May 2009
GLA (2005) Country of Birth and Labour Market Outcomes in London, Data
Management and Analysis Group - DMAG Briefing 2005/1 ISBN 1 85261 700
4.
Office for National Statistics (2009). Social and Vital Statistics Division,
Annual Population Survey, July 2007 - June 2008: Special Licence Access
[computer file]. Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive [distributor], January
2009. SN: 6094.
ONS (2009) Have women born outside the UK driven the rise in UK births
since 2001? Office of National Statistics, Summer 2009.
ONS (2008) Methodology to estimate Total International Migration 1991-2007,
Office of National Statistics - ONS, 2008.
Rees P. and Bodin P. (2006) Estimating London’s new migrant population,
stage –1 – review of methodology, Greater London Authority –GLA,
September 2006,
Rendall M. Tomassini C. and Elliot D. (2003) Estimation of annual
international migration from the Labour Force Survey of the United Kingdom
and the continental European Union, Statistical Journal of the United Nations
ECE 20, 219-234, IOS Press.
Woodbridge J. (2005) Sizing the unauthorised (illegal) migrant population in
the United Kingdom in 2001, Home Office Online Report 29/05.
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank the Trust for London and the Latin American Women’s
Rights Service who funded this research. In particular, we are grateful to
Mubin Haq and Rachael Takens-Milne from the Trust for London and Frances
Carlisle and Tania Bronstein from the Latin American Women’s Rights
Service. We are grateful to Juan Camilo Cock, Pablo Mateos and Sarah
Bradshaw for their comments on various aspects of this paper and to Juan
Camilo Cock for the use of photo on the front cover.
We would like to thank the Office of National Statistics and UK Data Archive in
Essex for provision of Annual Population Survey and International Passenger
77
Survey Data for various years. The original data creators, depositors,
copyright holders, and the UK Data Archive bear no responsibility for the
analysis or interpretation of data within this report.
Annex - Technical Reference
A. APS 2008 Latin Sample Size and Confidence Intervals
The APS 2008 samples 546 people who have a country of birth in Latin
American out of a total sample of 348,699 in the UK. The Latin American
sample proportion is 0.157%. This has a 95% confidence interval of 0.143%
(Lower) and 0.170 (Upper). The range of the interval is 0.027 of 1 percent.
This approximates to about 8% of the sample count (see table below). A less
than 5% variation is regarded as precise, while a 10% variation is regarded as
reasonably precise (ONS, 2009), a greater than 10% variation is an
increasingly less precise estimate of the population proportion.
Coefficients of variation for the UK sample Latin proportion of 8% indicate that
the estimated Latin population is reasonably precise.
The London Latin American sample is 283 Latin Americans out of a total
London sample of 29,129. This represents 0.972 % of the London sample.
The APS 2008 London Latin American sample proportion of the total London
sample, vary between 0.86 % to 1.08 %, at the 95% confidence limit.
Coefficients of variation are about 11% so again this can be interpreted as
being reasonably precise.
However, for individual London Boroughs the Latin American sample size
varies from 0 (both Bexley and Redbridge) to 24 (Kensington and Chelsea)
with coefficients of variation varying between 34% to 195% making these
estimates not very precise. The within London distribution of Latin Americans
must be treated with extreme caution and it may be better to look at the
average population of Latin Americans over the period 2004-2008 for a more
general estimate at London borough level.
78
Table 46 APS 2008 Latin Sample Size and Confidence Intervals
Area
Count
N
Proportion
Lower
Upper L Count U Count % diff
Comment
London - Unweighted
283 29129
0.00972 0.00859 0.01084
250
316
11.6 reasonably precise
UK - Unweighted
546 348699
0.00157 0.00143 0.00170
500
592
8.4 reasonably precise
City of London
0
15
0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
0
0
na no latins in sample
Barking and Dagenham
4
1057
0.00378 0.00008 0.00749
0
8
97.8 Less then precise
Barnet
13
987
0.01317 0.00606 0.02028
6
20
54.0 Less then precise
Bexley
0
901
0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
0
0
na no latins in sample
31
875
0.03543 0.02318 0.04768
20
42
34.6 Less then precise
Brent
Bromley
6
859
0.00698 0.00142 0.01255
1
11
79.7 Less then precise
Camden
21
1128
0.01862 0.01073 0.02651
12
30
42.4 Less then precise
Croydon
2
837
0.00239 -0.00092 0.00570
-1
5 138.4 Less then precise
Ealing
3
871
0.00344 -0.00045 0.00734
0
6 113.0 Less then precise
Enfield
1
995
0.00101 -0.00096 0.00297
-1
3 195.9 Less then precise
Greenwich
2
915
0.00219 -0.00084 0.00521
-1
Hackney
Hammersmith and
Fulham
8
1073
0.00746 0.00231 0.01260
2
5
807
0.00620 0.00078 0.01161
Haringey
7
913
0.00767 0.00201 0.01333
Harrow
1
951
0.00105 -0.00101 0.00311
-1
3 195.9 Less then precise
Havering
1
993
0.00101 -0.00097 0.00298
-1
3 195.9 Less then precise
Hillingdon
1
935
0.00107 -0.00103 0.00316
-1
3 195.9 Less then precise
Hounslow
4
797
0.00502 0.00011 0.00992
0
8
97.8 Less then precise
22
942
0.02335 0.01371 0.03300
13
31
41.3 Less then precise
24
763
0.03145 0.01907 0.04384
15
33
39.4 Less then precise
3
843
0.00356 -0.00046 0.00758
0
Islington
Kensington and
Chelsea
Kingston upon Thames
Lambeth
5 138.4 Less then precise
14
69.0 Less then precise
1
9
87.4 Less then precise
2
12
73.8 Less then precise
6 113.0 Less then precise
17
1059
0.01605 0.00848 0.02362
9
25
47.2 Less then precise
Lewisham
7
967
0.00724 0.00190 0.01258
2
12
73.8 Less then precise
Merton
4
747
0.00535 0.00012 0.01059
0
8
97.7 Less then precise
15
989
0.01517 0.00755 0.02278
7
23
50.2 Less then precise
0
833
0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
0
0
na no latins in sample
Newham
Redbridge
Richmond upon
Thames
9
815
0.01104 0.00387 0.01822
3
15
65.0 Less then precise
14
934
0.01499 0.00720 0.02278
7
21
52.0 Less then precise
4
781
0.00512 0.00012 0.01013
0
8
97.7 Less then precise
Tower Hamlets
15
971
0.01545 0.00769 0.02321
7
23
50.2 Less then precise
Waltham Forest
6
871
0.00689 0.00140 0.01238
1
11
79.7 Less then precise
11
688
0.01599 0.00662 0.02536
5
17
58.6 Less then precise
Southwark
Sutton
Wandsworth
Note
APS 2008
N=sample count, Count = Latin Count within sample
L=Lower
U=Upper
% diff = % upper count is different from sample
count
Proportion = Sample proportion of Latin Americans
79
Table 47 APS 2008 London Latin Nationality Sample Size and
Confidence Intervals
London 95% Confidence Interval for Latin Country of Birth 2008
Count
London
N
L
U
%
Proportion Lower Upper Count Count diff
Comment
283 29129
0.00972 0.00859 0.01084
250
18 29129
10
2 29129
0.00062 0.00033 0.00090
0.00007 0.00003 0.00016
Brazil
134 29129
0.00460 0.00382 0.00538
111
Belize
0 29129
0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
0
Chile
8 29129
0.00027 0.00008 0.00046
2
62 29129
47
-1
3 196.0 less precise
1
11 80.0 less precise
Argentina
Bolivia
Colombia
Costa Rica
1 29129
0.00213 0.00160 0.00266
0.00003 0.00003 0.00010
Cuba
6 29129
0.00021 0.00004 0.00037
DR
-1
316 11.6 reasonably precise
26 46.2 less precise
5 138.6 less precise
less reasonably
157 16.9 precise
0
0.0 none in sample
14 69.3 less precise
less reasonably
77 24.9 precise
5 29129
0.00017 0.00002 0.00032
1
9 87.6 less precise
18 29129
0.00062 0.00033 0.00090
10
26 46.2 less precise
El Salvador
4 29129
0.00014 0.00000 0.00027
0
8 98.0 less precise
Mexico
4 29129
0
8 98.0 less precise
Panama
1 29129
0.00014 0.00000 0.00027
0.00003 0.00003 0.00010
-1
3 196.0 less precise
Paraguay
0 29129
0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
0
0
Peru
4 29129
0
8 98.0 less precise
Uruguay
2 29129
0.00014 0.00000 0.00027
0.00007 0.00003 0.00016
-1
5 138.6 less precise
Venezuela
Central America Not otherwise
specified
South America Not otherwise
specified
4 29129
0.00014 0.00000 0.00027
0
8 98.0 less precise
0 29129
0.00000 0.00000 0.00000
0
0
10 29129
0.00034 0.00013 0.00056
4
Ecuador
0.0 none in sample
0.0 none in sample
16 62.0 less precise
The London Latin American sample from the APS 2008 contains no sample
who have a country of birth in Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Paraguay,
Belize.
For individual nationalities within the London Latin American sample the
coefficients of variation are varying between 17% to 196% making these
proportions within the Latin American London estimates not very precise for
2008. As full country of birth coding is only available for 2007 and 2008 from
the APS, so the average composition of nationalities over this period are
unlikely to be robust enough to base a sample weight on. Net migration
proportions may be a better indicator of nationality composition within the
London Latin American population.
80
B. International Passenger Survey - 2000 to 2008
These data are contained in some 33 separate SPSS quarterly files for the
years 2000 to 2008 and available from the UK data archive. Each file
contains an average of 65,000 survey records, with each case being
nationally weighted.
In migration can be estimated from the data by computing the overseas
arrivals by air and by sea (including the channel tunnel) of Latin American
residents who intend to stay for 12 months or more. Out migration can be
derived from departures of Latin American UK residents who intend to live
outside the UK for 12 months or more. This is undertaken for each of the 33
individual IPS data files and annual flow summaries produced for each year.
81
Table 48 - IPS based Latin American Migration Flows 2000-2008
Latin American International Migration Flows in the
UK
IN MIG > 12 months
Latin Overseas Residents
Arriving
20002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008
2001-2008
7320 Cuba
0
0
0
618
0
0
411
0
0
1,029
1,029
7330 Dominican Republic
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
258
258
258
7500 Belize
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
126
92
514
116
0
276
0
3,302
3,176
21,189
19,618
9,106
7,568
7600 Argentina
694 1,484
7610 Brazil
1,571
627 1,921 1,321 3,550 3,930 3,069 1,870 3,329
7620 Mexico
1,539
609
7630 Bolivia
78
747
0
0
0
7650 Colombia
7660 Ecuador
7670 Paraguay
942
627
493
0
57
51
53
66
0
1,053
975
262
0
0
522
582
300
567
2,233
2,233
900 1,246
0
599
661
456 1,374 3,198 1,035
9,470
8,570
878
541
0
751
0
180
0
345
2,695
1,817
62
0
0
0
0
333
0
0
395
333
0
0
80
0
236
163
131
267
122
998
998
43
0
0
81
0
0
0
0
0
124
81
7700 Venezuela
1,243
809
49
114
156
404
0
257 1,194
4,228
2,985
7710 Costa Rica
0
0
80
0
0
0
0
62
0
142
142
7720 El Salvador
0
0
0
0
247
0
0
0
49
296
296
7730 Guatemala
0
0
0
87
0
0
265
0
0
352
352
7740 Honduras
0
39
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
39
39
7750 Nicaragua
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7770 Panama
0
0
0
0
45
79
0
0
61
186
186
6,440 4,708 3,235 5,899 5,894 7,024 7,073 8,486 8,336
57,096
50,656
7640 Chile
7680 Peru
7690 Uruguay
IN MIG Total
328 2,212
982 1,376
0
OUT MIG > 12 months
Latin UK Residents Departing
20002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008
2001-2008
7320 Cuba
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7330 Dominican Republic
0
0
0
0
0
0
936
0
0
936
936
7500 Belize
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7600 Argentina
0
0
0
0 1,903
345
0
0
297
2,545
2,545
190 1,031 2,807 1,765 2,996 3,004 2,508 2,542
7610 Brazil
2,102
18,945
16,842
7620 Mexico
1,402
0
550
0
209
235
220
276 1,806
4,697
3,295
7630 Bolivia
0
0
0
0
0
210
0
122
333
333
244
0
0
0
0 1,067
0 1,374
250
2,935
2,691
7650 Colombia
0
844
457
240
747
578
0
433
303
3,602
3,602
7660 Ecuador
0
0
0
0
256
0
403
54
422
1,135
1,135
7670 Paraguay
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7680 Peru
0
0
0
174
0
0
0
0
779
953
953
7690 Uruguay
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7700 Venezuela
0
485
0
0
0
797
198
0
0
1,480
1,480
7710 Costa Rica
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7720 El Salvador
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
238
0
238
238
7730 Guatemala
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7740 Honduras
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7750 Nicaragua
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7770 Panama
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3,748 1,520 2,037 3,221 4,880 6,229 4,760 4,882 6,521
37,798
34,051
7640 Chile
OUT MIG Total
82
NET MIG > 12 months
Arriving - Departing
20002000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008
2001-2008
7320 Cuba
0
0
0
618
0
0
411
0
0
1,029
1,029
7330 Dominican Republic
0
0
0
0
0
0 -936
0
258
-678
-678
7500 Belize
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
126
92
694 1,484 -297
758
631
-531
436
7600 Argentina
7610 Brazil
7620 Mexico
137
7630 Bolivia
78
7640 Chile
0
514 116 1,903
891 1,485 1,785
609 -221 2,212
747
0
0
934
65 -638
787
2,244
2,775
706 -430
4,410
4,273
66 -122
582 1,074 318
721
643
392
273
57 -159
53
262
0
7650 Colombia
900
402 -457
359
7660 Ecuador
878
541
0
751 -256
7670 Paraguay
62
0
0
0
0
43
0
0
81
7700 Venezuela
1,243
323
49
114
7710 Costa Rica
0
0
80
0
0
0
0
62
7720 El Salvador
0
0
0
0
247
0
0 -238
7730 Guatemala
0
0
0
87
0
0
265
0
7740 Honduras
0
39
0
0
0
0
0
7750 Nicaragua
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7770 Panama
0
0
0
0
45
79
0
7680 Peru
7690 Uruguay
NET MIG Total
-244
0
733
-69
0
0 -545
-702
-458
732
5,868
4,968
-54
-78
1,559
682
0
0
395
333
267 -657
45
45
-87 -122 1,374 2,766
180 -403
0
0
333
0
80 -174
236
163
131
0
0
0
0
124
81
257 1,194
2,747
1,504
0
142
142
49
58
58
0
352
352
0
0
39
39
0
0
0
0
0
61
186
186
795 2,313 3,604 1,815
19,297
16,605
156 -393 -198
2,692 3,189 1,198 2,678 1,014
0
Notes
Includes air, sea, tunnel arrivals and
departures
In Migration = Intends to stay for > 12
months
Out Migration = Intends to Stay for > 12
months
sample size is approx 30,00 per year
weighted by final weight to represent all
passenger trips
83
Table 49 - IPS Latin American In-Visitors Flows 2001-2008
IN Visitor Arrivals (TAIN) < 12 months
Cuba
Dominican Republic
Belize
Argentina
Brazil
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008 2001-2008
5,301
4,293
2,732
1,790
3,683
6,540
6,124
3,759
34,222
885
0
1,839
3,303
2,347
2,605
2,414
2,199
15,593
2,073
0
141
0
1,361
0
70,629
22,054
36,290
37,445
27,914
47,681
97,573
90,558
2,048
5,623
64,745
361,042
98,274 128,765 103,197 151,194 201,835 232,297
1,103,693
Mexico
110,543
Bolivia
3,769
5,510
3,156
2,105
6,055
4,863
9,152
4,616
39,226
Chile
22,481
15,424
14,203
10,109
18,834
23,566
21,249
25,634
151,502
Colombia
28,801
33,087
18,659
21,039
24,128
25,294
29,880
20,215
201,103
Ecuador
1,575
3,002
8,127
4,266
3,845
1,894
3,401
3,254
29,363
Paraguay
1,024
1,243
0
2,348
0
1,508
Peru
2,019
3,970
9,866
6,149
6,591
10,484
Uruguay
69,242 101,084
99,022
82,991 125,516
54,284
93,199 137,955
5,391
819,552
309
6,431
6,881
51,350
3,915
3,309
3,588
3,380
7,702
4,652
1,806
9,030
37,383
Venezuela
20,352
16,394
9,081
11,684
12,774
29,754
28,513
29,741
158,292
Costa Rica
2,545
2,568
1,099
5,796
2,785
6,959
3,893
1,408
27,054
El Salvador
4,455
833
820
4,147
1,729
2,385
1,685
1,785
17,838
Guatemala
2,248
3,191
1,804
799
4,864
2,145
1,642
1,716
18,409
Honduras
2,452
3,362
1,741
3,337
802
355
1,426
683
14,159
Nicaragua
0
517
361
1,210
708
682
1,527
0
5,006
2,721
2,360
112
2,309
0
1,751
1,245
3,183
13,681
385,361 280,918 312,975 349,005 312,309 449,829 468,666 551,460
3,110,522
Panama
All Latin American Trips
Table 50 - IPS Latin American UK Resident, Out-Visitors Flows 20012008
OUT Visitors (Latin UK Residents Departure Visits < 12 months)
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2001-2008
Cuba
875
1,648
424
229
256
784
3,215
876
8,306
Dominican Republic
279
0
0
0
203
0
622
0
1,104
0
1,008
0
571
1,275
213
4,605
7,881
8,952
5,940 10,828
11,020
Brazil
28,847 21,769 23,552 34,725 33,359
Mexico
12,466 16,809 11,004 18,150 16,440
Belize
Argentina
450
3,516
12,053
3,157
64,437
57,761
59,347
50,514
309,873
16,725
18,150
13,889
123,634
7,059
1,360
17,085
9,413
47,815
Bolivia
1,277
225
2,302
560
2,259
2,042
Chile
6,864
6,842
7,487
4,452
6,924
5,834
Colombia
7,884
7,343
4,050 11,104 12,739
4,746
6,923
17,586
72,375
Ecuador
436
1,381
1,995
647
1,129
4,327
4,862
4,684
19,461
Paraguay
782
0
221
0
715
0
290
1,070
3,077
Peru
593
261
1,863
1,530
1,788
1,841
3,671
5,379
16,927
Uruguay
200
1,181
227
386
369
403
310
0
3,076
Venezuela
3,015
4,977
5,684
1,334
2,242
3,232
9,925
7,360
37,769
Costa Rica
0
768
199
668
370
416
2,305
0
4,725
El Salvador
0
0
361
623
0
1,139
512
0
2,635
Guatemala
0
0
0
264
852
947
275
0
2,338
Honduras
173
905
0
0
629
0
351
462
2,520
Nicaragua
0
191
0
288
0
0
294
906
1,679
1,694
0
771
1,307
0
0
1,075
1,967
6,813
69,990 73,188 69,091 82,777 92,376 111,432
131,239
119,071
749,164
Panama
All Latin UK resident visits out
84
C. Annual Population Survey – APS 2004-2008
The project uses 2008 APS Special License Access data sets going back to
APS 2003. These were the latest consistent time series available when this
part of the project was undertaken.
The APS comprises some 9 SPSS files from 2003 -2008. The 2003-2007
files are complete annual files while those for 2008 relate to the 12 month
period July 2007 to June 2008.
The APS annual Jan-Dec 2009 set only came out in late 2010 and the 2010
annual data set is not yet available, even though some quarterly ones are.
The APS can be used to estimate both the stock of foreign nationals by
nationality and country of birth.
APS Weights Used
In 2007, ONS undertook a reweighting project, whereby APS and LFS data
were reweighted using population estimates for 2007-2008, and these weights
are used in this analysis.
In 2009 the ONS again undertook a re-weighting exercise on data sets after
2006. However, these later data were not consistent with earlier APS series
back to 2003 data used in the project and were not used.
In addition the project method is consistent with irregular estimates derived for
2007 and projected forward to 2008 from the LSE / GLA study published in
2009. The method uses forward estimation and the use of later APS series
would involve more error in estimation.
85
Table 51 Latin Population of London 2008 – APS based on Country of
Birth
Area
Latin Population 2008 All Population 2008
% Latin 2008
UK
130,186
60,372,758
0.22
England
124,928
50,592,874
0.25
Wales
1,691
2,951,067
0.06
Scotland
2,444
5,088,028
0.05
Northern Ireland
1,123
1,740,789
0.06
79,296
7,535,814
1.05
London
City of London
0
8,592
0.00
631
165,352
0.38
Barnet
4,824
329,118
1.47
Bexley
0
222,047
0.00
10,470
271,649
3.85
Bromley
2,039
298,959
0.68
Camden
4,643
231,078
2.01
Croydon
1,089
335,693
0.32
Ealing
1,128
305,100
0.37
Enfield
274
285,345
0.10
Greenwich
592
222,591
0.27
Hackney
1,592
208,670
0.76
Hammersmith and Fulham
1,017
170,825
0.60
Haringey
1,778
226,259
0.79
Harrow
261
214,928
0.12
Havering
295
227,397
0.13
Hillingdon
231
250,310
0.09
Hounslow
1,148
219,716
0.52
Islington
4,540
186,291
2.44
Kensington and Chelsea
6,156
180,339
3.41
521
157,744
0.33
Lambeth
4,800
271,276
1.77
Lewisham
2,243
256,672
0.87
Merton
1,256
200,313
0.63
Newham
4,028
245,689
1.64
0
254,124
0.00
Richmond upon Thames
1,938
180,229
1.08
Southwark
4,819
274,333
1.76
948
184,637
0.51
Tower Hamlets
3,942
215,285
1.83
Waltham Forest
1,624
221,618
0.73
Wandsworth
5,159
280,076
1.84
Westminster
5,310
233,559
2.27
Barking and Dagenham
Brent
Kingston upon Thames
Redbridge
Sutton
Note: weighted sample proportions not
sample count proportions
Table based on Latin American Country of Birth
Source: Annual Population Survey 2008
The table below is based on nationality rather than Country of birth and shows
estimates of Latin American nationals living and working in the UK and
London by individual London borough. These data estimate the 2008 Latin
86
American population of London to be 54,060 out of a total UK Latin American
population of 82,939. The country of birth figures are larger and have a
London total of 79,286 out of a UK total of 130,186.
Table 52: APS Latin American Population Estimates for London and the
UK 2004-2008 based on Nationality
Area
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
UK
62,674 64,901 93,127 78,739 82,939
London
44,826 49,469 52,230 51,542 54,060
City Of London
0
0
0
0
0
Camden
987
1,711
4,604
2,416
3,314
Hackney
2,739
3,713
2,128
3,458
1,421
Hammersmith And Fulham
2,782
2,722
1,140
1,546
467
Haringey
2,513
1,590
2,595
1,926
1,043
Islington
1,783
2,392
2,278
2,284
2,647
808
1,779
2,929
3,473
4,359
6,954
5,396
6,547
3,577
4,148
852
3,436
2,606
1,557
1,395
Newham
2,115
636
2,616
3,378
3,047
Southwark
3,329
2,238
4,484
3,124
2,951
Tower Hamlets
1,060
1,084
434
3,322
2,560
Wandsworth
1,740
2,170
2,513
1,583
5,530
Westminster, City Of
3,180
2,441
1,825
3,004
2,863
0
547
638
676
631
2,296
0
2,073
2,044
3,392
Kensington And Chelsea
Lambeth
Lewisham
Barking And Dagenham
Barnet
Bexley
0
291
739
0
0
2,364
4,277
3,772
8,006
6,270
Bromley
0
1,124
561
0
1,625
Croydon
369
345
368
573
1,089
Ealing
597
958
1,123
353
389
Enfield
337
727
0
0
371
Greenwich
198
1,485
608
260
270
Harrow
0
320
314
277
261
Havering
0
0
0
0
295
Hillingdon
0
0
268
0
231
Hounslow
0
1,303
311
229
267
Kingston-Upon-Thames
1,113
651
882
431
164
Merton
2,663
2,633
760
928
333
526
0
343
340
0
1,602
1,249
1,181
848
642
180
226
924
723
684
1,739
2,025
666
1,206
1,401
Brent
Redbridge
Richmond-Upon-Thames
Sutton
Waltham Forest
Notes 2004, 2005, 2006 includes population from the other Caribbean
Source: APS, nationality
based
87
Table 53 Latin American Population as a proportion of Foreign Born
population 2008
Latin American Born as a proportion of Foreign Born 2008
UK Born
Foreign Born 2008
Total
Latin Born Latin % of Foreign Born
UK
53,868,662
6,504,096 60,372,758
130,186
2.00
England
44,574,113
6,018,761 50,592,874
124,928
2.08
Wales
2,817,475
133,592
2,951,067
1,691
1.27
Scotland
4,827,128
260,900
5,088,028
2,444
0.94
Northern Ireland
1,649,946
90,843
1,740,789
1,123
1.24
London
5,040,428
2,495,386
7,535,814
79,296
3.18
City of London
7,284
1,308
8,592
0
0.00
Barking and Dagenham
120,600
44,752
165,352
631
1.41
Barnet
219,335
109,783
329,118
4,824
4.39
Bexley
199,187
22,860
222,047
0
0.00
Brent
131,225
140,424
271,649
10,470
7.46
Bromley
268,293
30,666
298,959
2,039
6.65
Camden
141,531
89,547
231,078
4,643
5.18
Croydon
244,121
91,572
335,693
1,089
1.19
Ealing
163,913
141,187
305,100
1,128
0.80
Enfield
189,206
96,139
285,345
274
0.29
Greenwich
165,363
57,228
222,591
592
1.03
Hackney
137,598
71,072
208,670
1,592
2.24
Hammersmith and Fulham
102,639
68,186
170,825
1,017
1.49
Haringey
140,687
85,572
226,259
1,778
2.08
Harrow
121,658
93,270
214,928
261
0.28
Havering
210,741
16,656
227,397
295
1.77
Hillingdon
184,738
65,572
250,310
231
0.35
Hounslow
132,467
87,249
219,716
1,148
1.32
Islington
126,146
60,145
186,291
4,540
7.55
97,731
82,608
180,339
6,156
7.45
Kingston upon Thames
115,022
42,722
157,744
521
1.22
Lambeth
171,644
99,632
271,276
4,800
4.82
Lewisham
171,989
84,683
256,672
2,243
2.65
Merton
138,252
62,061
200,313
1,256
2.02
Newham
128,266
117,423
245,689
4,028
3.43
Redbridge
164,097
90,027
254,124
0
0.00
Richmond upon Thames
141,592
38,637
180,229
1,938
5.02
Southwark
180,933
93,400
274,333
4,819
5.16
Sutton
151,305
33,332
184,637
948
2.84
Tower Hamlets
125,977
89,308
215,285
3,942
4.41
Waltham Forest
147,888
73,730
221,618
1,624
2.20
Wandsworth
187,853
92,223
280,076
5,159
5.59
Westminster
111,147
122,412
233,559
5,310
4.34
Kensington and Chelsea
Source APS 2008 Country of Birth
88
Table 54 Latin American Population as a proportion of Non European
Union Foreign Born population 2008
Latin American Born as a proportion of Non EU Foreign Born 2008
APS 2008 Country of Birth
EU Born
Non EU Born
Total Latin Born Latin % of Non EU Born
UK
55,861,628
4,511,130
60,372,758
130,186
2.89
England
46,346,145
4,246,729
50,592,874
124,928
2.94
Wales
2,871,004
80,063
2,951,067
1,691
2.11
Scotland
4,936,813
151,215
5,088,028
2,444
1.62
NI
1,707,666
33,123
1,740,789
1,123
3.39
London
5,654,644
1,881,170
7,535,814
79,296
4.22
City of London
7,938
654
8,592
0
0.00
Barking and Dagenham
131,346
34,006
165,352
631
1.86
Barnet
249,938
79,180
329,118
4,824
6.09
Bexley
205,792
16,255
222,047
0
0.00
Brent
165,497
106,152
271,649
10,470
9.86
Bromley
276,147
22,812
298,959
2,039
8.94
Camden
167,194
63,884
231,078
4,643
7.27
Croydon
267,189
68,504
335,693
1,089
1.59
Ealing
205,962
99,138
305,100
1,128
1.14
Enfield
211,595
73,750
285,345
274
0.37
Greenwich
176,091
46,500
222,591
592
1.27
Hackney
150,853
57,817
208,670
1,592
2.75
Hammersmith and Fulham
127,126
43,699
170,825
1,017
2.33
Haringey
165,035
61,224
226,259
1,778
2.90
Harrow
134,207
80,721
214,928
261
0.32
Havering
215,240
12,157
227,397
295
2.43
Hillingdon
198,970
51,340
250,310
231
0.45
Hounslow
152,216
67,500
219,716
1,148
1.70
Islington
143,483
42,808
186,291
4,540
10.61
Kensington and Chelsea
120,075
60,264
180,339
6,156
10.22
Kingston upon Thames
123,575
34,169
157,744
521
1.52
Lambeth
194,757
76,519
271,276
4,800
6.27
Lewisham
194,164
62,508
256,672
2,243
3.59
Merton
153,171
47,142
200,313
1,256
2.66
Newham
145,919
99,770
245,689
4,028
4.04
Redbridge
179,924
74,200
254,124
0
0.00
Richmond upon Thames
157,274
22,955
180,229
1,938
8.44
Southwark
204,044
70,289
274,333
4,819
6.86
Sutton
161,889
22,748
184,637
948
4.17
Tower Hamlets
142,196
73,089
215,285
3,942
5.39
Waltham Forest
169,580
52,038
221,618
1,624
3.12
Wandsworth
216,420
63,656
280,076
5,159
8.10
Westminster
139,837
93,722
233,559
5,310
5.67
Source APS 2008 Country of Birth
89
D. GLA Latin irregular estimation method data requirements
The GLA method of estimating the irregular population of London takes
Woodbridges 2001 UK estimate of the irregular population and updates this to
2007 using Home Office asylum and other data. The method then apportions
the UK total to London.
The GLA analysis estimates the stock of failed asylum seekers at Census
date 2001 from Home Office data over the period 1988 to 2001 (first third) at
286,000. This is based on figures on asylum applications, withdrawn
applications, refused applications and deportations and voluntary departures.
While data are published overall for these categories, Latin American country
specific figures are not available except for Colombia and Ecuador and only
after 2005.
One method of finding the Latin American proportion of the total America
figures given in asylum data is to use the proportions represented by
Colombia and Ecuador given, as representative of Latin Americans in the all
America total figures given. For example in 2008 there were 25 Colombian
and 15 Ecuadorian asylum applications, out of a total of 405 for All Americas.
This represents about 10% (40/405) and can be applied to the Other
Americas figures given of 130 applications in 2008, to give an estimate of the
Latin American component of the Other Americas proportion of 13
applications. In total Latin American asylum applications can be estimated at
53 applications in 2008 (25 Colombian, 15 Ecuador and 13 estimated from
Other Americas). This is a type of Latin American proportionate
representational estimate method.
The Latin failed asylum seeker stock at 2001 can be estimated as a
proportion of the overall 430,00 Woodbridge figure based on the Latin
American share of the 2001 Census population (0.1%). This produces a Latin
failed asylum seeker stock at 2001 of 473 people.
The GLA overall failed asylum seeker stock of 286,000 represented 67% of
Woodbridges figure of 430,000. The remaining 33% are thought to represent
the size of the overstayers and illegal entrants at 2001 of 144,000. It is
suggested that the majority of irregulars are failed asylum seekers, with
overstayers likely to be the larger of the overstayers / illegal group (GLA,
2009:36).
To these estimates are added 4 other estimated components over the period
2001-2007 in the GLA method.
A) The growth in stock of failed asylum seekers,
B) Overstayer and illegals,
C) Regularisations, and
90
D) UK children born to the irregular population.
A: Estimates failed asylum seekers stock between 2001-2007, are based on
asylum applications, withdrawn applications, refused applications, and
deportations and voluntary withdrawals. The GLA estimate this to be 219,000
over the period 2001-2007.
The Latin American estimate of this figure is difficult as data are patchy, but
using the Latin American representational method above Latin asylum
applications are estimated to be 2,413 principal applicants, and 2,929
including dependents.
Dependents are estimated from the 2008 figures which suggest 5,380
dependents accompanied 25,930 principal asylum applicants = 0.21, or 1
dependent for every 5 applicants (Home Office, 2009:p21 Control of
Immigration Stats UK 2008).
Refused applications estimated in the same way produce estimates of 3,823
and is larger than the number of applications, so the data may include a
backlog. To date data has only been found for 2008 withdrawn applications
and successful appeals for which an estimate can be made.
Deportations and voluntary withdrawals are only given for Colombia and
Ecuador between the years 2005-2008 so this data are incomplete also.
Without a more complete time period data set estimates of the growth in failed
asylum seekers between 2001 and 2008 are difficult to make.
B: Estimates of the growth in overstayers and illegals is based on the
assumption that this group grow in proportion to the total in-migration rate
over the period. Growth in stock at a point in time is proportional to the
accumulated sum of in-migrants. This is estimated at 35% nationally for
2001-2007 and for the UK is 50,000 +- 20% for the low-high estimate.
According to the GLA report, the majority of migrants from poor countries will
tend to be overstayers relative to those from rich countries (GLA 2009).
This could also be estimated for Latin Americans based on their rate of in
migration into the UK and London (77%) over the period 2001 to 2008 from
the in-migration figures given in the IPS (table 29). However, first a 2001
stock figure needs to be estimated based on the Latin proportion of 2001
irregulars. The Latin proportion of 2001 overstayers and illegals stock of
144,000 (GLA, 2009) based on the Census 2001 Latin proportion (0.1%) is
158. If this figure were to grow at the 77% in migration rate over the period
there would be an extra 122 overstayers / illegal Latin Americans by 2008.
C: Regularisations are where irregular migrants become regulars by some
means. This is estimated based on various schemes undertaken since 2003
to be 126,000 for the UK between 2001-2007 (GLA, 2009).
1 families and long term residents who become naturalised,
91
2 UK Border Agency case resolution exercise since 2006 working on file of
asylum ‘legacy’ cases producing three outcomes. A) removal from the UK in
which case these will be reported in the removals / voluntary withdrawals, B)
grant of settlement of asylum cases should be subtracted from estimates as
no longer failed asylum seekers or C) file closure (no allowance made in GLA)
those irregulars making themselves visible for regularisation may perceive
forced removal, so remain irregular.
Regularisations of Latin Americans is difficult to obtain from the asylum data
and as a proxy grants of settlement of asylum cases can be used, but this
data is not available but could be estimated from the survey.
D: UK born children to irregular population. The Latin American UK fertility
rate can be used to estimate this from the survey.
Table 55 Latin Data needs for GLA estimate method
A Failed Asylum Seekers Growth in Stock 2001-2008
Notes
1 Asylum Applications
2001-2008
2 Withdrawn Appilations
2008only !!
25.41
3 Refused Applications (refused less appeals) 2001-2008
3823.6
3a Successful appeals
2008only !!
2919.73
19.36
4 Deportations and Voluntary Withdrawls
2005-2008 not disaggregated for earlier years
1885.18
5 Growth in Stock of failed Asylum Seekers
uses 3-3a-4
1919.06
B Overstayer
assumes same rate as 2001-2007 in migration flow 77% inc Latins
C Illegal Entrants
Lower, upper + or -20% of this
B+C
Latin Irregular Population at end 2008
data needs
1 Failed Asylum Seekers as at 2001
Comments
Latin % of Woodbridge estimate 430,000 (0.0011 in
Census 2001)
2 Growth in Failed Asylum Seekers 2001-2008 estimated from above A5
Latin share of 144,000 GLA estimate from Woodbridge *
3 Overstayer / Illegal entrants at 2001
0.1%
rate of growth of latin in migrants 2001 (4,708) -2008
4 Overstayer / Illegal entrants 2001-2008
(8,336) = 77%
5 Regularisations 2003-2008
473
1919
158
asylum grants of settlement to Latin Americans?
122
from
survey
average dependent child per migrant woman = 1.29
from
survey
Total Irregular migrants
6 Estimate of UK-born children to irregulars
(GLA, 2009:p47 Table 2.7)
Total Irregular Latin Migrants
1+2+3+4-5+6
92
93
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