UNCCD impact indicator refinement: issues at stake. I. INTRODUCTION The mandate: relevant COP decisions 1. By decision 3/COP.8, the Conference of the Parties (COP) adopted the 10-year strategic plan and framework to enhance the implementation of the Convention (2008–2018) (The Strategy).1 2. By the same decision, the COP requested the Committee on Science and Technology (CST) to provide advice to the COP at its ninth session on how best to measure progress on strategic objectives 1, 2, and 3 of The Strategy: - Strategic objective 1: To improve the living conditions of affected populations; - Strategic objective 2: To improve the condition of affected ecosystems; - Strategic objective 3: To generate global benefits through effective implementation of the Convention. 3. At its ninth session, the COP decided to provisionally accept the proposed minimum, but not exclusive, set of 11 impact indicators attached as an annex to decision 17/COP.9. The COP requested the secretariat, under the guidance of the CST Bureau and using an iterative process, to develop proposals to refine the set of impact indicators and associated methodologies, taking account of: a) Application and review of the impact indicators by affected countries; b) Scientific peer review of the relevance, accuracy and cost-effectiveness of the impact indicators; c) Possible synergy with relevant programmes, projects and institutions, including those associated with the other Rio conventions; d) Relevant contributions from UNCCD scientific conferences. 4. The COP further requested the CST to review the status of this iterative process during its sessions and to recommend a minimum set of impact indicators for consideration at the eleventh session of the COP. 5. At its tenth session, the COP decided to establish an ad hoc advisory group of technical experts (AGTE), not exceeding 15 members, to be tasked with continuing the iterative participatory contribution from the scientific community, National Focal Points and Science and Technology Correspondents on impactindicator refinement and the monitoring and assessment of impacts. 6. As per decision 19/COP.10, the AGTE is tasked with addressing the following four fundamental issues: a) Identify the best scientific approach to operationally delineate affected areas, including an evaluation of how this delineation was undertaken during the pilot tracking exercise; b) Develop a mechanism or framework that encourages country Parties to identify nationally and locally relevant impact indicators and integrate these in their contribution to the global impact assessment effort; c) Further refine the set of the provisionally adopted impact indicators, based on national limitations, the findings of the scientific review and on lessons learned through applications by affected country Parties in the pilot tracking exercise and in the reporting process in 2012, to identify the most meaningful, globally applicable and costeffective set of impact indicators; d) Develop a scientifically based approach for integrating, analysing and interpreting impact-indicator information, so that the overall set of impact indicators, when taken together, has the potential to generate at national level relevant information that can be harmonized and used to produce regional and global baseline assessments. Previous work 7. The task assigned to AGTE benefits from previous work carried out in the framework of the UNCCD to identify and define suitable indicators for the monitoring and assessment of the implementation of the Convention. 8. The UNCCD began to formally address the challenge of indicator development and selection in 1998, when, in accordance with decision 22/COP.1, the first Ad Hoc Panel on Benchmarks and Indicators was convened in Beijing, China. 9. Since the adoption of The Strategy, in 2007, several steps have been taken by the CST to fulfil the mandate received by the COP. These steps have included, among others: - determining what benchmarks and indicators country Parties were already using to monitor and assess desertification and its mitigation and identifying synergies (especially commonly used basic indicators) across countries and regions. This effort formed the basis for the preliminary list of impact indicators provisionally accepted at COP 9;2,3 - identifying relevant data sources;4 - a participatory, formative, and iterative scientific peer review process for the refinement of the provisionally accepted set of impact indicators. Contributions of about 100 technical experts led to the production of (i) a refined conceptual framework, (ii) a refined indicator set hierarchy, (iii) proposals of metrics/proxies to be considered for testing or further development, and (iv) a set of core principles determined to be necessary to refine the impact indicator set and enhance its potential effectiveness;5,6,7 and - a pilot impact indicator tracking exercise at national level.8,9,10 10. Furthermore, the UNCCD 1st Scientific Conference, organized at the occasion of COP 9, tackled issues and made recommendations regarding the biophysical and socio-economic monitoring and assessment of desertification and land degradation.11,12 II. ISSUES AT STAKE 11. This document provides a quick stock take of progress made in refining the set of impact indicators, especially in relation to the four issues at stake for the AGTE. Several important considerations have emerged from the iterative scientific peer review process which the AGTE may wish to take into account as they develop recommendations for consideration by the CST at its eleventh session. For an in-depth discussion of these considerations the AGTE members are encouraged to refer to documents included in the Reference list. Identify the best scientific approach to operationally delineate affected areas, including an evaluation of how this delineation was undertaken during the pilot tracking exercise 12. The mapping and monitoring of the spatial extent of land degradation and desertification is necessary to understand the phenomenon and to elaborate sustainable national strategy and programmes to 2 combat it and to mitigate its impact. Article 16 of the Convention specifically calls for the country Parties “…to integrate and coordinate the collection, analysis and exchange of relevant short term and long term data and information to ensure systematic observation of land degradation in affected areas”. There are significant differences in the extent and severity of DLDD issues in the various affected country Parties to the Convention. While in certain country Parties, DLDD may be a localized problem affecting only certain areas, for other country Parties DLDD is a widespread issue that can affect virtually the entire national territory. Depending on the specific national circumstances, statistics at the national level may hide significant regional disparities and, more importantly, differences in trends between those areas that are affected by DLDD and those that are not. Therefore, a rigorous demarcation of the areas affected by DLDD within each country is indispensible to enable a full understanding of the impacts of DLDD in any given country. Affected areas are not, however, fixed in place and time; it is arguable that all areas are potentially ‘affected’ areas, especially under conditions of climatic change (regardless of origin). 13. According to article 1 of the Convention, affected areas are “arid, semi-arid and/or dry sub-humid areas affected or threatened by desertification”. Unfortunately, such definition is generic and does not provide country Parties with prescriptive criteria for the demarcation of affected areas at the national level. As a result, the Convention still lacks an agreed set of criteria for the operational identification of DLDD affected areas at the subnational level, and different countries may use very different criteria for their delineation. 14. Based on the findings of the scientific peer-review process, it was recommended that all the proposed indicators should be measured in affected country Parties and that the operational use of the term “in affected areas” should be refined through input from the scientific community and used to interpret the impact indicator measurements. In this approach the related but different challenges of defining, measuring and monitoring the indicators and of defining and delineating affected areas is distinct and therefore more operationally viable. 15. The next step recommended by reviewers was developing a harmonized approach to identifying affected areas and creating a basic map to which the impact indicators can then be referred. At the global level, the most affected and most vulnerable ecosystems and populations can be derived from a global assessment such as Global Land Degradation Information System (GLADIS). National and subnational level methodologies are being employed by the country Parties, but are not necessarily comparable. 16. A synthesis of mapping experiences in identifying affected areas was prepared by the group of experts who recommended the minimum set of impact indicators which was provisionally accepted at COP 9. Annex 3 of their report2 presents some of the tools in use for defining affected areas. However, they highlighted the importance of a more uniform identification of affected areas at least on a regional basis as well as of country and regional level inputs in any follow up work on this issue. 17. The issue was further discussed by scientists participating in the UNCCD 1st scientific conference. Working on different dryland sub-types through a meaningful stratification was proposed to delimit and characterize affected areas beyond the national level. Such stratification could be achieved by combining existing land use information with additional biophysical and socio-economic data sets, allowing indicatorbased monitoring and assessment to be embedded in a framework of specific dryland degradation issues and their impacts on key ecosystem services.13 18. Some preliminary insights into the definitions and methodologies in use at national and subnational levels for the identification of affected area were obtained through the pilot impact indicator tracking exercises. The pilot exercise confirmed that definitions for affected areas vary across Parties, possibly reflecting differences in national circumstances/priorities and in the interpretation of what is considered an affected area.9 The results also suggested that in general, the Pilot countries lack data that are spatially explicit to affected areas, i.e. if the data cover affected areas, they also include adjacent areas, which cannot be easily differentiated. It was therefore recommended that the usefulness of rural areas, as a proxy for affected areas, be further investigated.8 19. As part of the second leg of the fourth reporting and review process, Parties are currently being requested to specify the definition and the method used to identify affected areas in their country. The 3 reporting cycle officially started in March 2012. Parties and other reporting entities will have a period of six months, until 21 September 2012, to compile and submit reports through the PRAIS portal. Three additional months (October-December 2012) will be used to assess and eventually increase data quality, and fill possible information gaps. Although the reports from country Parties will be available only in fall 2012, an analysis of the definitions and methods used to identify affected areas would inform the debate and facilitate the identification of a common definition and interpretation of affected areas. Develop a mechanism or framework that encourages country Parties to identify nationally and locally relevant impact indicators and integrate these in their contribution to the global impact assessment effort 20. Desertification is a global problem that is manifested locally. Mitigation efforts, even those associated with global or national initiatives, ultimately involve local decisions and actions designed to improve conditions. Moreover, the causes and consequences of desertification vary considerably between and within countries. For global monitoring to be effective and useful within country Parties, the national and even subnational relevance of the information provided from the indicator set is paramount. 21. This suggests that efforts to monitor the impacts of the Convention across the country Parties in a unified way must include both a minimum set of indicators and metrics and a mechanism for the global system to account for local/subnational/national realities that may involve indicators not listed in the minimum set. In this context, the global minimum set of indicators would be used to capture key trends and draw public attention to key issues of common concern; it would be a tool for public communication targeting high level decision makers. The nationally and locally relevant impact indicators, when combined with the global set, could more comprehensively communicate impact and provide support to the decision making and planning processes. 22. This is also compatible with the on-going process of alignment and revision of Action Programmes (APs). Outcome 2.2 of The Strategy requests affected country Parties to revise their NAPs into strategic documents supported by biophysical and socio-economic baseline information, and to include them in integrated investment frameworks. Biophysical and socio-economic data are needed to document impacts of the implementation of the APs; the systematic identification, access to and use of relevant and credible scientific and technical information and data are seen as a crucial factor for the improvement of the quality of the processes of AP preparation, implementation, monitoring and evaluation.14 As highlighted by some Parties at the seventh session of the CRIC (CRIC 7), the development of an indicator system should go hand in hand with the realignment of APs so that countries can use the same indicators for implementing The Strategy/Convention as for reporting.15 This would improve the link between planning and implementation and reporting/monitoring and evaluation. At CRIC 7, Parties went even further in refining the objectives set by outcome 2.2 and recommended that “clear linkages between the revised action programmes and the indicators for reporting should be established. NAPs should set targets, set out baseline information, identify indicators and a timeframe, specify the range of activities envisaged to reach such targets, and identify indicators to measure progress with achieving these targets.” The guidelines (contained in document ICCD/COP(9)/2/Add.1) developed to assist affected country Parties in aligning their APs with the Strategy should therefore be taken into consideration when developing the mechanism or framework for the identification of nationally and locally relevant impact indicators. 23. If the UNCCD indicator system has to include nationally and locally relevant impact indicators, then it is essential that the conceptual framework applied to support the organization, use and communication of the set of indicators also highlights the need for synergy between global, national and local information. The conceptual framework proposed for consideration by the UNCCD employs a combination of driving force– pressure–state–impact–response (DPSIR) and ecosystem services approaches to conceptualizing the indicator set, and includes an Millennium Ecosystem Assessment-like visualization of the different spatial temporal scales of concern (see Annex I).5 24. The approach highlights the issues of scale, but it does not resolve them (for example, in many cases local-scale indicator data cannot be aggregated to national levels without risking exaggerated results). The 4 approach also offers the opportunity to incorporate locally derived indicators into the global monitoring effort, but it does not, as yet, define the mechanism that would make this operationally feasible.6 25. On a regional and national basis, there has been past success in linking local participatory processes to the combat of desertification in ways that ensure local relevance to national and regional assessments.16,17 In addition, several initiatives have created frameworks for linking local participatory assessments to national and global efforts in support of the mission of the Convention18,19,20 involving multiple actors appropriate to the different scales (local to international), working in a contributive way (bottom-up rather than dictated top-down).21 These existing frameworks should be assessed in the development of this mechanism. 26. The use of a common framework by different Parties would improve the scope for regional and global assessments. However, it is to be noted that, whatever framework is proposed, it should not be prescriptive, but it should give a reasonable level of guidance for Parties in developing their own monitoring and assessment frameworks. 27. This is also in line with the principle of adaptability proposed in the process of scientific peer review of the UNCCD impact indicators. According to this principle, it is recommended that both the conceptual framework and the indicator set be regularly re-evaluated for appropriateness as monitoring and evaluation efforts mature, for their usefulness in decision-making, and because needs may change and scientific tools may improve.6 28. Along this line, significant contributions to the potential evolution of the proposed framework were made by experts participating in the global public consultation, which represented the fourth and final iteration in the participatory scientific peer-review process.7 Further refine the set of the provisionally adopted impact indicators, based on national limitations, the findings of the scientific review and on lessons learned through applications by affected country Parties in the pilot tracking exercise and in the reporting process in 2012, to identify the most meaningful, globally applicable and cost-effective set of impact indicators 29. At its ninth session the COP decided to provisionally accept a recommended minimum, but not exclusive, set of 11 impact indicators to measure progress on strategic objectives 1, 2 and 3 of The Strategy. The indicators were organized in a matrix in annex I to decision 17/COP.9.22 In the same decision, a sub-set of two impact indicators (that is: ‘Proportion of the population in affected areas living above the poverty line’; ‘Land cover status’) was identified as the minimum required for reporting by affected countries beginning in 2012. The remaining nine impact indicators, while recommended, were considered optional for inclusion in reports by affected countries. 30. In response to a request by the COP, the provisionally accepted set of impact indicators and associated methodologies is being refined through an iterative, participatory and formative review process. The refined set of impact indicators is presented in Annex II. One of the critical needs identified through the scientific peer review was how the underlying logic (and in some cases, language) of the indicator set hierarchy needed to be fine-tuned in order to maximize the potential for the indicator set to meet the strategic objectives of the UNCCD.5 In particular, the structure of the indicator set hierarchy was refined to make it possible to distinguish what to measure (general indicators) and how it should be measured (metrics/proxies). Furthermore, a “readiness scheme” (green = ready for testing, yellow = requires fine tuning, red = requires further development) was adopted to ensure a place for indicators that are currently challenging to measure, but are viewed as essential to monitoring impact.6 31. The indicators and associated metrics/proxies were then tested in the pilot exercise. The priority was given to assess the viability of the two impact indicators which are mandatory for reporting in 2012. The other indicators and their metrics/proxies were also assessed on the basis of existing data and capacities in the piloting countries. It should be highlighted that piloting countries included, among others, China, South Africa, Senegal, Spain/Portugal and Colombia, all of which have substantial capacities. In addition, some of 5 them (China, South Africa, Senegal) are LADA countries. In light of these considerations and given the small sample size of the pilot study, its results should be seen as indicative rather than conclusive. However, they provide useful information on effectiveness, relevance and feasibility of reporting on the indicators and should be taken in due account for the further refinement of the set of indicators.8 32. As part of the second leg of the fourth reporting and review process, affected country Parties are currently being requested to report for the first time on impact indicators. Parties will report on the two mandatory impact indicators and, on a voluntary basis, on the remaining nine impact indicators provisionally accepted by the COP as well as on alternative indicators considered more suitable/relevant. Furthermore, the reporting templates include sections for Parties to assess the impact indicators based on e-SMART criteria and provide their suggestions and recommendations for the refinement of the set.23 A more detailed analysis of reporting patterns and a review of the assessment made by the Parties would provide essential information to identify the most effective, relevant and cost-effective minimum set of impact indicators to be used at the global level. Develop a scientifically based approach for integrating, analysing and interpreting impactindicator information, so that the overall set of impact indicators, when taken together, has the potential to generate at national level relevant information that can be harmonized and used to produce regional and global baseline assessments 33. The Strategy states the development of a baseline based on the most robust data available on biophysical and socio-economic trends as one of its expected outcomes (outcome 3.2). In order to establish this baseline, relevant scientific and operational approaches need to be gradually harmonized. 34. Moreover, as a recent outcome of the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development “Rio+20 Conference”, world leaders agreed "to strive to achieve a land-degradation neutral world in the context of sustainable development". In order to assess progress towards this goal, they reaffirmed their resolve “to take coordinated action nationally, regionally and internationally, to monitor, globally, land degradation” and stressed the importance of “the further development and implementation of scientifically based, sound and socially inclusive methods and indicators for monitoring and assessing the extent of desertification, land degradation and drought”.24,25 35. A baseline is a starting point for monitoring that provides a comprehensive characterization of a phenomenon in a specific year so that later changes in its attributes can be measured.26,27 A baseline outlines the criteria against which achievements are to be assessed. The baseline gives meaning to raw data or value for an indicator, or set of indicators used to track the progress toward established objectives and targets. 36. Ideally, national baseline surveys would be undertaken in all affected countries in the same year, but this is not always possible. The year 2008 was the first year of The Strategy and thus could serve as the baseline year for assessing progress. However, in cases where a country has information on years that do not fall within the timeframe of The Strategy, the reporting templates that were tested during the pilot tracking exercise have been designed to allow Parties to input information for other years within the period 20002011. 37. Desertification is a multidimensional, multi-scale phenomenon with causes and consequences that vary within space and scale. This implies the need for (i) not just individual indicators, but a set of functionally interlinked indicators, organized within a conceptual framework that can be used to provide a full description of the inter-related processes, and (ii) harmonization of indicator-based information to a baseline across spatial and temporal scales 38. The countries participating in the pilot testing concluded that the provisional set of UNCCD impact indicators was effective in assessing progress of the Convention. However, discussion at workshops highlighted that the indicators tend to be understood and used indicator by indicator rather than as a functional set. It was suggested that the understanding of the indicators as set should be promoted, and that the logical and functional linkages between indicators, and the advantages for national management of using the indicators as a set should be elaborated and communicated effectively to the Parties. 6 39. Regional and global baseline assessments will draw on indicator-based information reported at national level. There is, therefore, a need to integrate, interpret and analyze multi-source information that may have been gathered by different Parties through the use of different indicators, metrics and data collection methods. While complete standardization (to agree and use only one single common methodology for the same variable or indicator) may not be necessary to ensure that national data can be used for regional and global baseline assessment, harmonization (to make comparable the same variable measured in different ways) needs to be pursued to ensure consistency of information across scales and comparability among countries. However, it is clear that the information from some national indicators will not be suitable for simple quantitative aggregation. Global and regional reports on some aspects might therefore need to apply multiple methodologies (for instance the reliance on statistically valid sub-samples and/or the conversion from numerical to qualitative information). Furthermore, indicators of land degradation and desertification are scale-dependent; that is, the resultant measurement depends on the area being considered and the process of land degradation being assessed. This is a particular concern when aggregating field, local, and district information in support of national monitoring where exaggerated results could arise when an indicator is used at a small-scale (detailed assessment) for estimating degradation at a large-scale.5 40. As part of the second leg of the fourth reporting and review process, affected country Parties will report on the two mandatory impact indicators and the information contained in their reports will be analysed based on a set of guidelines which was presented at the tenth session of the CST and which is currently under review.28 There are no agreed upon guidelines for the analysis of information provided by Parties in relation to the remaining impact indicators, as these are not currently mandatory for reporting. The available guidelines will have to be followed by the secretariat when communicating the results of reporting back to Parties. However, if the global minimum set of indicators is to be used as a tool for public communication, alternative target groups and their information needs should be taken into consideration when deciding how to analyse impact indicator information. Wherever possible, making the reporting process useful not only for global assessment, but also at the national level is encouraged. The relevance and suitability of these guidelines for the production of regional and global baseline assessment should be assessed. III. KEY CONSIDERATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 41. The task assigned to the AGTE benefits of previous work carried out in the framework of the UNCCD to identify and define suitable indicators for the monitoring and assessment of the implementation of the Convention. A review of the work done is essential to ensure consistency and avoid duplication of efforts. Particular consideration should be given to the findings of the iterative scientific peer review process. This process led, among others, to the formulation of a set core principles determined to be necessary to refine the impact indicator set and enhance its potential effectiveness. The COP at its tenth session agreed that these core principles (as contained in document ICCD/COP(10)/CST/2) “set the stage for the development of proposals to refine the set of impact indicators and associated methodologies based on national capacities and circumstances”. 42. Definitions for affected areas vary across Parties, possibly reflecting differences in national circumstances/priorities. A review of methods and criteria in use at the global, national and sub-national levels for the identification and delineation of affected areas could constitute the basis for the development of an operational definition of affected areas. This work could benefit from the preliminary findings of the pilot exercise and, even more, from the analysis of the definitions and methods reported by Parties through their national reports. While keeping in mind political considerations and implications, it is important to note that the AGTE is specifically mandated to “identify the best scientific approach to operationally delineate affected areas” [emphasis added]. 43. Efforts to monitor the impacts of the Convention across the country Parties in a unified way must include both a minimum set of indicators and metrics and a mechanism for the global system to account for local/subnational/national realities that may involve indicators not listed in the minimum set. The AGTE is mandated to define the mechanism that would make this integration operationally feasible. The existing frameworks for linking local participatory assessments to national and global efforts in support of the mission of the Convention should be assessed in the development of this mechanism. Clear linkages should 7 also be established with the process for the realignment and revision of National Action Programmes in order to improve the link between planning and implementation and reporting/monitoring and evaluation. 44. The further refinement of the set of impact indicators to be used at the global level should aim at identifying “the most meaningful, globally applicable and cost effective” indicators and it should take into account national limitations. The preliminary findings of the pilot exercise, the analysis of reporting patterns and the review of the e-SMART assessment made by Parties could provide essential information to the refinement process. 45. Information provided by individual indicators needs to be integrated and taken in combination within a conceptual framework in order to portray the multidimensional aspects of desertification. The use of indicators as a set aids inassessing the current status of desertification, to create a common understanding of the causes and consequences of desertification amongst the stakeholders and to communicate of the progress made in achieving established objectives and targets. By refining the provisionally accepted set of UNCCD impact indicators, the AGTE could assess how the current set fits the current conceptual framework, identify gaps and overlaps among the indicators and develop proposals for the use of the set of indicators in the formulation, implementation and monitoring of the National Action Programmes. 46. Baseline assessment at national, regional and global level is required to track the progress made toward the UNCCD strategic objectives and a land degradation neutral world. The establishment of a baseline may have to rely on indicator-based information collected at a range of scales on different times. This means there will be a need to develop scientifically-sound procedures that allow the integration and cross-scaling of the indicator-based information relevant at each scale. The AGTE is tasked to develop a scientifically-sound approach for aggregating and analysing information provided by the Parties through national reporting in such a way that what is reported can be comparable among countries and be used for baselines assessment that are useful about both national and broader scales. 8 IV. REFERENCES 1 UNCCD. 2007a. Decision 3/COP.8: The 10-year strategic plan and framework to enhance the implementation of the Convention (2008–2018). (Includes “Annex: The Strategy”). Bonn: United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. Available online: http://www.unccd.int/en/programmes/Science/MonitoringAssessment/Documents/Decision3COP8-TheStrategy.pdf 2 Berry. L., E. Abraham, and W. Essahli. 2009. The UNCCD Recommended Minimum Set of Impact Indicators. Draft Report. 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"Report of the Conference of the Parties on its ninth session, held in Buenos Aires from 21 September to 2 October 2009 - Addendum, Part two: Action taken by the Conference of the Parties at its ninth session" ICCD/COP(9)/18/Add.1. Bonn: United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. Available online: http://www.unccd.int/Lists/OfficialDocuments/cop9/18add1eng.pdf 23 UNCCD 2012a. “Template and reporting guidelines for affected country Parties”. Bonn: United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. Available online: http://www.unccd.int/en/programmes/Reporting-review-andassessment/Documents/ACP%20template_Final_ENGLISH.pdf 24 United Nation Conference on Sustainable Development 2012. “The future we want” A/CONF.216/L.1. Available online: https://rio20.un.org/sites/rio20.un.org/files/a-conf.216l-1_english.pdf.pdf 25 UNCCD 2012b. “Zero Net Land Degradation – A sustainable development goal for Rio+20 to secure the contribution of our planet’s land and soil to sustainable development, including food security and poverty eradication”. UNCCD Secretariat policy brief. Available online: http://www.unccd.int/Lists/SiteDocumentLibrary/Rio+20/UNCCD_PolicyBrief_ZeroNetLandDegrad ation.pdf 26 Grainger A., 2009. Development of a Baseline Survey for Monitoring Biophysical and Socio-Economic Trends in Desertification, Land Degradation and Drought. Report to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, Bonn. 125pp. Available Online: http://www.unccd.int/en/programmes/Science/Monitoring-Assessment/Documents/Developing-abaseline-survey.pdf 27 UNCCD 1997. “Supplementary report on the work on benchmarks and indicators” ICCD/COP(1)/CST/3/Add. Bonn: United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. Available online: http://www.unccd.int/Lists/OfficialDocuments/cop1/cst3add1eng.pdf 28 UNCCD 2012c.” Guidelines for the preliminary analysis of information contained in reports from Parties and other reporting entities” ICCD/COP(10)/CST/4-ICCD/CRIC(10)/14. Bonn: United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. Available online: http://www.unccd.int/Lists/OfficialDocuments/cop10/cst4eng.pdf 10 ANNEX I Amended driving force–pressure–state–impact–response framework integrated with ecosystem services provisions Source: Adapted from: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. 2005. Ecosystems and human well-being: Desertification synthesis. A report of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. World Resources Institute. Washington, D.C.: Island Press. <http://www.maweb.org/documents/document.355.aspx.pdf>; GEF KM:Land. 2010. Project indicator profiles for the GEF Land Degradation Focal Area. Final report by the GEF MSP: Ensuring impacts from SLM – Development of a Global Indicator System (KM:Land Initiative). Hamilton Ontario: UNU-INWEH. 67 pp. <http://www.inweh.unu.edu/drylands/docs/KMLand/KM-Land_Indicator_Profiles_Final.pdf>; FAO-LADA. 2009. Field manual for local level Land Degradation Assessment in Drylands. LADA-L Part 1: Methodological Approach, Planning and Analysis. Rome: FAO. 76 pp. 11 ANNEX II Proposed refinements to the provisionally accepted set of impact indicators contained in annex I to decision 17/COP.9, including metrics/proxies to be considered for testing and/or further assessment/development Core indicators (with proposed revisions) General indicators (revisions of 11 provisional indicators) Metrics/proxies (operational approaches proposed for testing, where ready, and further assessment/development where not) Degree of expert Readiness agreement for testing* Strategic objective 1: To improve the living conditions of affected populations Core indicator S(1/2/3): Improvement in the livelihoods of people potentially impacted by the process of DLDD III Proportion of the population living above the relative poverty line Rural poverty rate** High Green I Water availability per Percentage of population with access to (safe) drinking water capita Water availability and use Medium Yellow Low*** Yellow IV Food consumption per capita High Yellow Proportion of chronically undernourished children under the age of 5 in rural areas** Strategic objective 2: To improve the condition of ecosystems Core indicator S-4: Reduction in the total area affected by DLDD VI Degree of land degradation A less complex version of Level of land degradation + Trends in seasonal precipitation High Yellow VIII Drought index Trends in WMO Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (a meteorological drought index) (New) Green V Capacity of soils to sustain agro-pastoral use GLADIS “soil health status” (New) Green II Change in land use Land use (in support of deriving (a) VI Land degradation and (b) XI Low*** Land under SLM, and also in interpreting (c) IX Land cover status) 12 Yellow Core indicators (with proposed revisions) Core indicator S-5: Maintenance of or increases in ecosystem function, including net primary productivity General indicators (revisions of 11 provisional indicators) IX Land cover status VII Plant and animal biodiversity**** Metrics/proxies (operational approaches proposed for testing, where ready, and further assessment/development where not) Degree of expert Readiness agreement for testing* Land cover** High Green Land productivity Medium Green Crop and livestock diversity (agro-biodiversity) High Yellow Trends in abundance and distribution of selected species High Yellow Soil biodiversity (New) Red Strategic objective 3: To generate global benefits through effective implementation of the UNCCD Core indicator S-6: Increases in carbon stocks (soil and plant biomass) X Carbon stocks above Above ground organic carbon stocks and below ground Below ground organic carbon stocks High High Yellow Red Core indicator S-7: Areas of forest, agricultural and aquaculture ecosystems under sustainable management XI Land under SLM Land under SLM + general indicator VII Plant and animal biodiversity (secondary role) + II Change in land use High Yellow V Capacity of soils to sustain agro-pastoral use GLADIS “soil health status” (New) Yellow * Readiness scheme: Green = ready for testing, Yellow = requires fine tuning, Red = requires further development. ** Although named slightly differently, the operational definition of this indicator is very similar to that given by Berry, L., E. Abraham, and W. Essahli. 2009. The UNCCD Recommended Minimum Set of Impact Indicators. Draft Report. Consultancy report (1) for the CST of the UNCCD. 99 pp. <http://www.unccd.int/regional/rcm/docs/UNCCD%20Min%20Set%20of%20Impact%20Indicators%20Final%20Report%20June%204.pdf> *** As a stand-alone metric/proxy, there was limited or divided support for this metric/proxy. However, if used in support of another indicator, the agreement was much higher. **** Also a secondary indicator under core indicator S-7. 13