CULTURE AND INSTITUTIONS: ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGIONS OF EUROPE Guido Tabellini INTRODUCTION The aim of the paper is to examine the relationship between culture and economic development PREVIOUS LITERATURE • North (1981) : institutions • Hall and Jones (1999); Acemoglu , Johnson and Robinson (2001) : colonial origins • La Porta (1999) : legal origins PREVIOUS LITERATURE • Banfield (1950) ; Putnam (1993) : difference between North and South of Italy due to their distant histories and traditions • Beugelsdijk and von Schaik (2001): correlation between social capital and per capita output across European regions • Guiso, Sapienza, and Zingales (2008) : historical origins of social capita across Italian cities • Tabellini (2008a) MAIN IDEA • History shapes institutions, in particular the ones protecting property rights. The development of certain kind of institutions can affect the current economical situation of a country. HOW CAN WE MEASURE INSTITUTIONS? • North :"Institutions are the humanly devised constraints that structure political, economic and social interaction. They consist of both informal constraints (sanctions, taboos, customs, traditions, and codes of conduct), and formal(constitutions, laws, property rights).” Which variables can capture this phenomenon? • To transform a "sticky" variable, as institution is, in a more dynamic instrument we focus on a regional level ("within countries instead than across countries") • -We isolate the effect of common national institutions • - We fix contemporaneous regional education and urbanization rate in 1850s • - We obtain cultural indicators depending only on historical variables: regional literacy rate at the end of 19th century and indicators of political institutions in the period from 1600 to 1850 • Historical institutions Contemporary institutions Economic development • Historical institutions Culture Economic development DATA • 69 regions in 8 european countries • Eurostat database • different level of disaggregation: NUTS 1 level and NUTS 2 level PER CAPITA OUTPUT • Definition: GVA in international prices (adjusted for purchasing power), expressed in percent of the EU15 average • The data concern only the peiod from 1995 to 2000 EDUCATION • Definition : regional differences in the education of adult population, measured by enrollment in primary and secondary schools in percent of the population of the relevant age group. • The datas refer to 1960s- 1970s; but the risk of reverse causation and increases regional variations are reduced if we take earlier dates • It was not possible to obtain regional datas; so the author had to rely on disparate national sources • Variations come mainly from secondary school enrollment REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT • By fixing this variable, history would influence current economic performance only through culture rather than through a slow economical process • Problem: the datas don´t go back enough in time URBANIZATION IN 1850 • As a proxy for regional economic development: in the 17th and 18th centuries cities were the centre of commerce • Definition: the fraction of regional population that lived in cities with more than 30,000 individuals around 1850 • The threshold of 30,000 individuals is chosen to maximize the correlation between past urbanization and regional per capita output today CULTURE • • Datas refer to two different periods: 1990 – 1991 1995 – 1997 There are four cultural traits which are measurable: - two related with general trust and respect for others welfare enhancing social interactions better institutions -two related with confidence in virtues of individualism entrepreneurial environment TRUST • More efficient outcomes from interactions extension of anonymous market exchange • Less cost of transactions outside of local community more benefit from trade • “Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or that you can’t be too careful in dealing with people?” PLATTEU (2000) • General vs limited morality: - hierarchical societies: morality applied in small network - democratic societies: abstract rules of good conduct apply to many social situations • Chiaromonte (Banfield 1958) RESPECT • To measure in a more direct way general vs. limited morality, we observe the values that parents consider important to teach to their children OBEDIENCE • In hierarchical societies individualism is mistrusted the good behaviour is a result of coercion • As a result, individual initiative and cooperation within a group could be stifled, with bad consequences affecting the economic development of a country CONTROL • This variable measures the extent of the conviction that individual effort is likely to pay off - Highly motivated people : work hard, invest, innovate, undertake new economic initiatives - low motivated people: passive, resigned,lazy attitude • The attention is focused on four cultural traits: - three (trust, control, respect) are expected to promote economic development - one(obedience) is expected to hurt it Estimation Strategy • Y = α + δC + βYo + γX + e • X denotes education of the currently adult population (measured by school enrollment in 1960), and country dummies (that capture current national institutions) • δ is the coefficient of interest Estimation Strategy • Y = α + δC + βYo + γX + e • The problem is that culture and the unobserved error term in our equation are likely to be correlated. Estimation Strategy • Approach: Culture is shaped by contemporaneous social interactions and the cultural traditions inherited from earlier generations. Bisin and Verdier (2001), Benabou and Tirole (2006), and Tabellini (2008b) Estimation Strategy • C = a + dCo + bYo + cX + u • u is capturing all other determinants of culture (including a reverse feedback effect from output to culture) • Co would be a natural instrument for current culture --> Solution for endogeneity problem Estimation Strategy • Problem: Co is unobserved • Solution: The culture of earlier generations is shaped by past social interactions, and hence by historical features of the political and economic environment. • --> C = λ1 + λ2Xo + λ3Yo + λ4X + v Estimation Strategy • Vector Xo is the historical counterpart of the variables in X, namely education and political institutions in the distant past. Past education is measured by the literacy rate around 1880 (literacy), and early political institutions are measured by constraints on the executives in the years 1600–1850 (pc-institutions). • This isolates the variation in culture that is exogenous --> δ only exploits this exogenous variation in culture History shapes culture • Example 1: Imagine an autocratic regime that fosters an environment of mistrust and helplessness/resignation. Illiteracy is likely to reinforce these negative attitudes, because it isolates individuals and it reduces their ability to control and understand the external environment. History shapes culture • Example 2: The effect on culture will be opposite in a republican regime where productive entrepreneurs or traders participate openly in the political organization of society, the rule of law is respected, and supreme authority is constrained by checks and balances Validity of Instruments • Assumption: The variables literacy and institutions are valid instruments, namely, are uncorrelated with the error term e in the out put regression. --> Effects have to be indirect (remeber: we want to measure culture) But: Possible lasting effect of literacy on sectoral compsotion? Or, institutions on smaller endowments of infrastructure? Literacy and early institutions • For literacy the authors collected data from various sources on the literacy rate around 1880 by region. • The data on early political institutions is based on the data set POLITY IV which uses Constraints on the Executive as code for instituions. Constraints on the Executive • According to this criterion, better political institutions have one or both features: The holder of executive powers is accountable to bodies of political representatives or to citizens; and/or government authority is constrained by checks and balances and by the rule of law. • It varies from 1 (unlimited authority) to 7 (accountable executive, constrained by checks and balances) Summary • Summarizing, all the instrumental variable estimates discussed so far portray a remarkably consistent and robust picture: First, past political institutions and low literacy rates left a mark on regional culture; second, this cultural legacy of history is an important determinant of current economic performance; and third, the data cannot reject that past political institutions and literacy rates of previous generations influence economic performance only through culture, particularly when culture is measured by broad aggregates. Questions • In which other ways could culture influence economic development? • Is there something like an eurocentric bias in the definition of culture? • Does the findings of this paper challenge that "institutions matter"? • Is literacy really a valid instrument? • Possible omitted bias variable? What about religion? • Definition of culture as formal institutions? Not all ideas of its time might become institutionalized but they sure interact with institutions. Bias if we just measure observable part of culture (Distinctness)? Thank you for your attention!