ISSN 2201-1064 Vol. 2 March 2014 THINKING ECONOMICS Author: Mohan Dhall, © Mohannah Education Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement (JAEPA) Introduction Globalisation is said to provide opportunities for households, firms and national governments. Households in different nations should benefit from the relaxation of trade barriers by being able to access a greater range of goods and services for lower overall cost. This should lead to a rise in quality of life and living standards. Firms should benefit, as they should be able to access markets more easily and thus sell their products to a larger number of buyers. Moreover, some of their input costs should fall – such as the cost of imported components and of skilled labour brought into a nation to fill skills gaps. National governments should also benefit as the growth of enterprise can lead to greater taxation revenues, encourage innovation and efficiency and maximise productivity. Thus, it is widely claimed that the removal of artificial barriers to trade should lead to many benefits, tangible and intangible to those nations that engage in free trade relationships. About free trade Free trade is defined as trade between nations where there are no artificial barriers imposed. In this sense, ‘artificial barriers’ is a reference to legislative or other government-imposed limits (such as policy choices, regulations, trade rules and the like) on the capacity for trade to occur unobstructed or unimpeded. For trade to take place without restriction, an economy should have several features: The financial sector should be free of controls on the transborder flow of money The government should allow foreign investment and also the outright ownership of domestic firms by foreign owners (although, foreign ownership may be subject to two constraints (see Thinking Economics Insight 1 below) There should be no restriction on the transborder flow of legal goods and services and no system of preferential trade that excludes nations (unless those nations do not trade in accordance with agreed free trade rules) There should be a capacity for labour flows between nations, as unhampered as possible There should be IP protections in nations so that firms do not risk losing moral rights when entering into new/ other nations and so that innovation is encouraged for the benefit of all Governments should not impose any costs (direct or indirect) on the products entering the nation as this acts as a disincentive to imports and thus restricts the free flow of goods and services. Thinking Economics Insight 1 So – SOEs – not so wishy washy…! The issue of foreign ownership of domestic companies can be a disconcerting political issue that governments have to deal with as a natural consequence of globalisation. If the free flow of money is enabled, and there are relaxed investment rules, then a situation can arise where domestic firms are purchased and controlled by foreign investors. In some industries this can lead to possible future problems arising as implied by the question ‘who owns what?’ and the related question as to whether the nation has food security, water security, defence security or whether these sensitive areas have been compromised by a lack of controls over foreign ownership. However, a far more serious question arises when the foreign buyer is actually a State Owned Enterprise (SOE). SOEs are majority owned by governments and thus if an SOE seeks to buy into an industry in another nation then serious issues of national security can arise. This is because an industry can become owned by another national government through what look like independent corporations. In this situation a national government can protect domestic security by imposing limits on the amount of market share or market power a corporation can have and, in so doing, can limit the effect a foreign power can have. It can also place particular limits on the proportion of equity holdings a foreign SOE can have in the domestic market. Foreign ownership rules are a significant area of concern for governments globally, as are the rules that pertain to mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Free trade and trade agreements In order to encourage the free trade of goods and services, governments will remove barriers that hamper, reduce or limit trade. They can do this in a number of ways, starting with the creation of trade agreements. When governments discuss trade between their nations they do so representing different businesses, industries and consumers. These parties lobby government trade ministers through their representative lobby groups. In turn, the government will then represent their interests when they negotiate with other governments during trade talks. Thinking Economics Insight 2 Talk, talk, talk’n trade The theory behind the basis of global trade is that nations can specialise in those industries in which they have a natural advantage. For example, Malaysia can make palm oil better (cheaper and more efficiently) than other nations on account of its geographical advantage and soil types. Similarly, Australia can produce certain high-grade coals (for energy and industry) more cheaply than any other nation on account of its natural endowment in coal seams. Thus, Malaysia could negotiate a trade deal with Australia where it would export palm oil to Australia and import coal from Australia. In this way, both nations would benefit, especially when both nations need what the other is selling and either cannot produce the product at all, or produce it at significantly higher cost and with greater inefficiency. Trade talks Governments in democratic nations are meant to represent the voters. The trade minister will have a position on trade that should represent the interests of industries. During trade talks the ministers will put a position that favours their industries. However, many nations have similar industries, so it is during trade talks and negotiations that ministers have to decide areas that are non-negotiable. This is an important factor in trade negotiations. Though discussions are classified as ‘free trade’ talks, there will be certain industries and areas of economic activity that will not be covered under trade talks and thus will be remain protected from change. Preferential or free trade…? Agreements made between nations are often called ‘free trade’ agreements, however, despite the name or title of such agreements, there is a question about whether the agreements are ‘free trade’ in nature or whether they are preferential in nature. In reality, trade agreements are best described as a mix of both. This is explained in Thinking Economics Insight 3. Free trade agreements (FTAs) are usually negotiated between nations bilaterally. This means that they typically involve two nations making an agreement between themselves. Bilateral agreements are much more easily negotiated than multilateral negotiations which involve three or more nations simultaneously. Thinking Economics Insight 3 Takes time to be free When two nations create a free trade agreement (FTA) then the negotiations can take years to conclude. During this time the nations are finding and clarifying which areas within an economy will be involved in trade and also which areas are to be quarantined from negotiations. Note that although the agreements are called ‘free trade’ the movement towards totally unconstrained trade occurs over many years. Thus for example, the agreement to reduce tariffs in an industry may be negotiated over a period of five to ten-years (or longer). The idea behind allowing time for trade to become freer is to enable the affected industries to have time to make the structural adjustments necessary so that change can be managed and negative impacts minimised. Thus, for example, if a reduction in tariffs would result in a loss of employment domestically and also a decline in the size or scale of manufacturing, then time will allow an industry to find areas where there are competitive advantages which it can exploit or focus on. The Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement (JAEPA) In early April 2014 an announcement was made by the Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott in a joint press meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Negotiations had commenced in April 2007 and took seven years to finalise, following sixteen rounds of formal negotiations. The agreement has several key features that can be read about in Thinking Economics Insight 4 below. Japan has a population of 127.6 million, the tenth largest in the world, and is a very significant economic power. Thinking Economics Insight 4 Japan-Australia Economic Partnership Agreement (JAEPA) Japan and Australia have signed an historic trade deal that is the most liberalising of all trade deals ever signed by Japan. Japan has had very high import barriers and the trade deal will see the reduction of duties and preferential treatment that will affect 97% of Australian exports to Japan. The agreement is expected to run over a fifteen-year term. In 2013 the two-way trade between Australia and Japan was valued at $69.3bn. Japan is the world’s third largest economy behind the USA and China. Australian exports to Japan in 2012-13 were valued at $48.6bn or 16% of total export value. Of this, goods accounted for $46.5bn and services $2.1bn. The main goods sold are Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) worth $14bn and coal - also worth $14bn per year. Services exports were composed of recreational travel services and transport services. In 2012-13 imports of goods and services from Japan to Australia were valued at $20.6bn. Goods accounted for $18.3bn and services $2.3bn. In terms of trading importance, Japan is Australia’s second-largest export market (behind China) and Australia’s second-largest overall trading partner. JAEPA The agreement covers all of the following: Agricultural goods (including beef, dairy, sugar and horticulture) Industrials, energy and minerals Services Investment, intellectual property (IP) and government procurement Agricultural goods Agricultural tariffs that have been as high as 219% will be reduced over time. Australia is the first significant beef exporter to receive preferential access to Japan through a cut to the tariff on beef. The 38.5% tariff will be reduced. For frozen beef there will be an 8% drop in the tariff in the first year of implementation, a further 2% in the second year and another 1% in the third year. Over the 15-years the tariff will be reduced to 19.5%. For fresh beef there will be a 6% cut in the first year and a 1% reduction in the second and third years, eventually reducing the tariff to 23.5%. Moreover, the quotas for Australian beef, frozen and fresh, will increase. As regards the other agricultural sectors dairy products will receive increased quotas benefitting the cheese producers (effectively raising the global quota from 27,000 tonnes to 47,000 tonnes) and there is the immediate removal of duties on milk products such as protein concentrates. Sugar will be subject to lower tariffs and tariffs on fruit, vegetables, nuts, juice and canned fruits will be eliminated over time. Wine producers, crustacean and honey producers will all face tariff elimination and /or quota increases. Industrials, energy and minerals - Coal, iron ore and LNG already face no duties however tariffs will be eliminated on coking coal, petroleum oils, aluminium hydroxide and titanium dioxide. Services - Japan has agreed to allow supplier access to the financial sector, educational sector, telecommunications and legal services. Investment, intellectual property and government procurement - Australia will raise its threshold for Japanese investment to allow $1.1bn of private investment to take place without the need for consideration by the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) in ‘non-sensitive’ sectors. Adapted from source: http://dfat.gov.au/fta/jaepa/downloads/jaepa-key-outcomes.pdf; http://dfat.gov.au/ publications/tgs/index.html and http://www.dfat.gov.au/fta/jaepa/ Benefits to consumers in Australia It should be clear from reading Thinking Economics Insight 4 that Australian producers will benefit from the JAEPA. It is estimated that the fall in tariffs alone could increase the value of Australian export trade by several billions of dollars per year. However, the benefits to Australian consumers are not particularly clear. The average cost of seventy-five percent of imported Japanese cars will fall by 5% on the wholesale price to Australian importers. It is not clear whether this cut, which arises from the elimination of a 5% tariff imposed by the Australian government, will be passed on in whole or in part to consumers through motor vehicle retailers. The remaining twenty-five percent of imported Japanese vehicles will have their tariffs phased out over three years. It is expected that there will be a benefit to consumers arising from the reduction in tariffs on electronic products and whitegoods such as washing machines, refrigerators, microwave ovens, stoves, conventional ovens, driers and rangehoods which will all fall in price. There should also be a reduction in the cost of cameras, televisions, music players and game consoles. Note that with domestic car manufacturing set to close within three years, the reduction in tariffs in imported vehicles is unlikely to have a major impact on domestic motor vehicle production. Precedents and access The JAEPA has created a new standard for Japanese economic relations with the rest of the world. Australian producers could feel vulnerable if Japan commences negotiating other bilateral trade deals. However, JAEPA does provide a layer of protection arising from the notion of ‘most favoured nation (MFN)’ status. This is explained in Thinking Economics Insight 5. Thinking Economics Insight 5 Most favoured nation (MFN) status and protection A concern to Australian producers is that the benefits that have been negotiated under the JAEPA may be eroded if other nations, following the precedent, negotiate FTAs with Japan. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) imposes a requirement to trade without discrimination and, to other nations, it would appear that Australia has been accorded a preferential status. However, as can be seen from the excerpt below, the WTO does allow exceptions and the agreement between Japan and Australia would place some products into the category of exception. Furthermore, if Japan does negotiate a better deal with another nation then according to MFN rules, Australia must be accorded the same treatment. Trade without discrimination 1. Most-favoured-nation (MFN): treating other people equally - Under the WTO agreements, countries cannot normally discriminate between their trading partners. Grant someone a special favour (such as a lower customs duty rate for one of their products) and you have to do the same for all other WTO members. This principle is known as most-favoured-nation (MFN) treatment. It is so important that it is the first article of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which governs trade in goods. MFN is also a priority in the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) (Article 2) and the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) (Article 4), although in each agreement the principle is handled slightly differently. Together, those three agreements cover all three main areas of trade handled by the WTO. Some exceptions are allowed. For example, countries can set up a free trade agreement that applies only to goods traded within the group discriminating against goods from outside. Or they can give developing countries special access to their markets. Or a country can raise barriers against products that are considered to be traded unfairly from specific countries. And in services, countries are allowed, in limited circumstances, to discriminate. But the agreements only permit these exceptions under strict conditions. In general, MFN means that every time a country lowers a trade barrier or opens up a market, it © MOHANNAH EDUCATION P/L has to do so for the same goods or services from PO BOX D1009 all its trading partners - whether rich or poor, Dundas NSW 2117 Australia weak or strong. Source: WTO: “Principles of the trading system”, from http://www.wto.org/ english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/ fact2_e.htm Tel: (02) 9638 7499 Fax: (02) 8014 6476 Mob: 0466 800 706 Email: office@mohannaheducation.com.au Web: www. mohannaheducation.com.au