ENTHRONE Market Environment
A presentation on the
Market Assessment & Analysis
Vassiliki Apostolopoulou (Telecompare)
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Digital Distribution Market
What is all about ………
Multimedia Market Convergence
Enabling Technologies & State of the Art
Multimedia Services – value chain battlefield
Trends & Opportunities – Future Vision
A highly complex playground for big established players,
emerging key players and also other future players entering
the market
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Multimedia Market Convergence
What are the drivers ….
Broadband
• The Triple Play and Quadruple Play / Service Bundling
• Already there ..
• Need to build multi-play offerings that provide different combinations of
services
• Market Growth
• The strongest growth is occurring in Eastern Europe, where improving
market conditions coupled with rapidly growing demand and developing
infrastructure are driving growth. Growth will average 33% per year until
20101
• The number of worldwide broadband subscribers will double over the
next five years, reports In-Stat (http://www.in-stat.com). By year-end
2010, worldwide broadband subscribers will reach 413 million
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Multimedia Market Convergence
What are the drivers ….
Broadband
• Peer-to-peer Content Distribution
• The amount of data now exchanged on P2P networks is about equivalent
to a full third of all present Internet traffic.
• With legitimate P2P services forecast to increase significantly in number
over the next few years, this is of great concern to the telecoms industry
• QoS aware Networks
• Broadband operators hoping to generate revenues from content delivery
need to offer improved services that content providers will buy.
• They need to deliver end-to-end QOS for IP voice, streaming video, highdefinition services, and rich-media capability for the busiest Websites.
• They need to deliver effective caching and load-balancing services. They
must enable content providers to deliver content irrespective of how
busy the Internet is at any given moment.
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Multimedia Market Convergence
What are the drivers ….
Networked Home
The multi-faceted nature of the digital home, means that no single player has all the competencies
required to control the digital home. The various players should therefore focus on their strengths, and
form partnerships with and/or acquire others where necessary
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Multimedia Market Convergence
What are the drivers ….
Fixed-Mobile Convergence
Combining forecasts indicates that by 2011 some 250 million users will be in service over FMC
networks and access points. This equates to around 10% of households and 8% of enterprises using
some form of FMC access point on the premises.
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Enabling Technologies & State of the Art
Multimedia Services
Management
• MPEG-21 is a standard that describe s the combination
and interactions of multiple elements throughout the
multimedia delivery chain
• The IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) defines a generic
architecture for offering Voice over IP (VoIP) and
multimedia services.
Metadata Management
• metadata storage, context-related metadata generation,
content related metadata generation, and metadata
management
Audio-visual content
generation & adaptation
• H264 Encoding Systems & Applications
• Content Encoding for Mobile TV networks Market
• Content Encoding for IP TV networks Market
Content Protection
• TV conditional access and pay-per-view
• Internet media streaming
• Internet download shops
• Media on mobile networks
• Content Protection Architectures
• Content Protection Systems (MPEG-21 IPMP, DMP,
etc.)
End-to-end QoS across
heterogeneous networks
• Access QoS provisioning: xDSL, cable
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Multimedia Services – Value chain battlefield 1
• IPTV and the Triple Play
• IPTV refers to a group of related technologies delivering television
programming using a broadband connection over the Internet
Most of the industry research estimates between 15 million and 37 million
global IPTV subscribers by the end of the decade; Alcatel's forecast of 70 million
to 100 million seems high by comparison. Light Reading forecasts for broadband
and IPTV penetration in the major markets worldwide arrive at a figure of about
65 million.
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Multimedia Services – Value chain battlefield 2
• Mobile Entertainment
1. Vodafone Casa FASTWEB, Vodafone (Italy)
2. SMS, O2 (UK)
3. Mobile TV and Video Streaming, 3 (UK)
4. BlackBerry Email and IM, T-Mobile (USA)
5. Mobile Broadband, Sprint Nextel (USA)
6. Mobile TV Broadcasting, 3 (Italy)
9. DCMX Mobile Payment, NTT DoCoMo (Japan)
10. MiniCall ‘Voice SMS’, Vodafone (Egypt)
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Multimedia Services – Value chain battlefield 1
• Communities and User Generated Content
Year 2010
Expected
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Views/Downloads
65,006,344.1
112,098,202.0
27,267,383.8
Size (TB)
1,127,654.1
1,944,548.6
483,083.3
Uploads
1,116,602.8
1,925,491.6
252,128.0
Size (TB)
9,158.7
15,793.5
2,076.7
Revenue
$852.3
$1,390.4
$583.2
The User Generated Content (UGC) space is vast, far more than the two largest
players alone, YouTube and MySpace, who together with the other large
companies, like Yahoo!, Google and AOL, capture many of the headlines.
Forecasts for downloads/uploads (size, number of files, and revenues directly
tied to videos), expects by 2010 the volume of downloads/views to reach over 65
billion, with 1 billion uploads supplying the Creative Content
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DIGITAL DISTRIBUTION MARKET INSIGHT
Service Provision
Service Delivery
all these actors that enable the end
user to access and interact with
content and applications over digital
delivery channels
the technology and infrastructure
required to transport the data
comprising the content or service to
the end customer,
Digital Distribution Market
Content & Applications
concerns the product for which the
customer is paying - either directly
or indirectly and concerned with
those who create and provide
content and applications targeted at
users
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Enabling Technologies
concerns the provision of the
background software and IT service
processes that underpin the
functions of the other three
segments
SWOT – Service Provisioning
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
Key Market Players involved and ready to
exploit new services / products
Users especially mobile ones are more familiar
with audio visual services and ready to pay for
content and QoS
Market Players willing to provide value to
services and customers
Technology is mature enough and highly
innovative
New rich content increase consumer’s trust
New business models are investigated by
market players
OPPORTUNITIES
Key market players insists on their monopolist
approach
High costs of integration
Big players have tendency to smother growth
of smaller players
Fixed Internet users still want content for free
Information Society is a reality (e-business, eeconomy)
New business models shall drive market
growth
Need for content and delivery is still strong,
consumers are willing to pay
Market is open for new entries and players
Content is the main demand from consumers
Increased customer value and QoS
New more sophisticated devices enabling
content retrieval and displaying
Standardization activities and security issues
are now mature
Key market Players insist on maintaining their
strong market share, acting as a barrier to the
new emerging economy
Business roles and models appear could
restrict some actors (Content providers versus
service providers)
Universal Service is still not a reality for a
majority of consumers
Content owners (records / media firms) are
sceptical in adopting new business models
DRM developments, security and protection
issues are slowing the exploitation of the
market.
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THREATS
SWOT – Service Delivery
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
High Broadband bandwidth in place
New infrastructure from operators for delivery of
data (Wi-max, WLANs, fiber), all IP networks
Digital and mobile TV is a reality for market
Devices much more capable and customisable ,
Gadgets are accepted by the users
Consumers are trained to web based services,
mobile content delivery
OPPORTUNITIES
Devices too complex for some users to use or
configure
Open roaming an issue – both within technologies
(3G – 2G) and between them (3G – WLAN),
interoperability and End-to-end QoS still
unsolved.
Delivery is a commodity
Recession/debt has slowed investment
THREATS
Content is opportunity to fill network capacity
Delivery can expand into Services
Industry players are big and powerful and critical
to the success of the industry
Device manufacturers have the opportunity of
diversifying further as they cater for user
requirements according to context (i.e. different
devices dependent on location).
Home networking provides opportunities for
delivery players to expand into service provision
Delivery could get squeezed by Content and
Service
Will customers pay more, or will they cannibalise?
Device shelf-life (fashion and technological) could
have a detrimental impact on the take-up of
services. New roll-outs & upgrades need careful
management
Customers access high-bandwidth networks, find
no use for the higher bandwidth
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SWOT – Content & Applications
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
Availability of content
Portals have been widely accepted and user’s
are seeking new channels and devices
Mobile users are willing to pay for content,
fixed internet users increasingly
Movement from purely text-based content has
increased number of users willing to pay
OPPORTUNITIES
High-bandwidth infrastructure in place
(Broadband, GPRS)
Customers want access to content
Partnerships are evolving
Increased customer recognition of value
Devices now more capable of displaying
complex content
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Many fixed Internet customers still expect to
pay little/nothing for content
Understanding how to optimise new and
existing content for multi-channels still a
challenge.
Usability of services, content and applications
still an issue
Standards issues still not fully addressed
THREATS
Partnerships to date not covered in glory
Major corporations could undermine SMEs
Lack of mainstream customer awareness –
they don’t know they want it! In many ways
this perpetuates the Digital divide/universal
access to content issue
User Security worries – Viruses, Privacy, Spam
– not so much about fraud now more about
data safety
DRM, copyright, micropayment etc. issues
make this sector unstable and unpredictable
SWOT – Enabling technologies
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
Technology is mature enough and highly
innovative
Standardization activities and security issues
are mature (DRM, MPEG-21 etc.)
Research cooperation in European and
international
level
will
strengthen
exploitation opportunities
OPPORTUNITIES
High costs of integration and switching from
proprietary closed platforms
End-to-end delivery platforms require mass
adoption by all market actors before
delivering value
All actors are investigating convergence and
alternative business models that require
enabling technologies such as QoS
provisioning, content adaptation etc.
Key Market Players involved and ready to
exploit new services / products
Scalability considerations are ignored – the
technology should be increasingly invisible to
the end customer, and if services are not
easy to use, take-up will be hindered
Absence of recognisable, profitable business
models incorporating partnerships and
standards – if players cannot see significant
revenues, they will remain risk averse and
not drive the market forward
Suppliers misunderstand the market – “build
and they will come” is not a viable strategy;
awareness building, marketing and customer
relationship management are required
Regulation and lack of standards hold back
development
THREATS
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Future Vision – Key Findings
Service
Provision
Service
Delivery
• Evaluation of user’s needs and requirement to
understand where the value is
• New business models towards the convergence of the
different market segments
• Provisioning of value and Quality of Service to the
consumers
• Adoption of the appropriate technology and platforms
so as to ease the integration and enable all the actors to
participate in the new economy.
• Earn consumers confidence and trigger demand for
new services
• NO’s new business approach and models
• Different network technologies roaming,
interoperability and security
• End-to-end QoS and DRM constraints to be
overcome.
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Future Vision – Key Findings
Content &
Applications
Enabling
technologies
• Investments should be triggered and not be limited
to capital rationing of the firms and big brands
• Business models for content delivery need to be
developed
• Added value services should emerge and QoS
should be guaranteed to consumers
• DRM standardisation and copyright protection
required
• Business synergies and partnerships are required
• Strong cooperation with all market actors to ensure
that market requirements and business plans are
sufficiently supported by the enabling technologies
developed
• Standardisation is the key to enable the wide adoption
of the technologies
• Strong cooperation in researching solutions for
enabling technologies to provide better exploitation
potential
• In new business models towards the convergence of
the different market segments
• Dissemination and training of relevant actors to
promote the technologies
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THANK YOU
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