Ticker: ‐ NYSE: NKE Nike Inc. Investment Analysis Report Analysts: William Brand, JP Tramontana March 12, 2009 Nike Analysis Report TABLE OF CONTENTS: Investment Thesis ............................................................................................................... 3 The Company, Industry, & Competitors............................................................................. 3 Historical Financial Analysis ............................................................................................ 16 Risk Factors ...................................................................................................................... 23 Cost of Capital, Capital Structure Analysis & Distributions ............................................ 25 Financial Statement Forecasts........................................................................................... 28 Cash Flow Valuation......................................................................................................... 28 Summary & Conclusions .................................................................................................. 30 Appendix ........................................................................................................................... 31 Page 2 Nike Analysis Report Investment Thesis Our analyst team feels that Nike Inc. is a buy because of the large amount of positive aspects of the company which are both qualitative and quantitative. Nike is the leader in many different retail environments and we feel that their solid earning power as well as their diverse and loyal customer base and efficient operations should all contribute to make the company profitable for years to come. Nike is an extremely unique company with many competitive advantages and is an industry leader. Nike is undervalued even given conservative assumptions with a robust financial position and strong growth opportunities. Main Drivers of Value: • Extremely strong brand equity within the retail industry • Efficient “futures” inventory strategy • Well positioned balance sheet with less than 10% Debt/Cap (-2B net debt) and large cash reserves • Large international growth prospects while maintaining dominant U.S. market share These are the main drivers of value for the company that our analyst team expects will produce stellar financial and operational results for the company both in the near and long term. Main Risk Factors: • Continued macroeconomic downturn resulting in extensively lower consumer spending associated with a worldwide GDP contraction • Market saturation and potential lack of room for growth These are the two most important risk factors for the company however there are more business risks that affect the company which are detailed further in the Risk Factors section. The Company, Industry, & Competitors The Company’s Description “Nike, Inc. designs, develops, and markets footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessory products worldwide. The company offers various categories of shoes, including running, training, basketball, soccer, sport-inspired urban shoes, and children’s shoes. Nike, Inc. also markets its products under the brand names of Converse, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, John Varvatos, Jack Purcell, Cole Haan, Bragano, and Hurley. The company sells its products to retail accounts, through stores, independent distributors, and licensees, as well as through its Website, nikestore.com. As of May 31, 2008, it operated 296 retail stores in the United States and 260 retail stores internationally. The company was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Beaverton, Oregon.” Source: CapitalIQ1 Page 3 Nike Analysis Report Source: Nike Inc. 10-K Report 20081 Nike manufactures many different products in many different lines of business that target a diverse group of customers. Mainly Nike is well known for their athletic shoes but over the years the company has expanded into having a product for every aspect of virtually every sport. As well, the company is well positioned because of its exposure to licensing agreements with major sports teams at the collegiate and professional level as well as high school and private league programs for younger competitors. Products & Competition Major Products Nike’s main product is athletic shoes however they as well as well sell products used for leisure purposes. The company focuses on high quality construction in all of their products in order to ensure customer satisfaction as well as to maintain the company’s well known and respected name. Their top sellers are running, training, basketball, soccer, sport-inspired urban shoes, and children’s shoes. From the 10K, “We also market shoes designed for aquatic activities, baseball, bicycling, cheerleading, football, golf, lacrosse, outdoor activities, skateboarding, tennis, volleyball, walking, wrestling, and other athletic and recreational uses. We sell sports apparel and accessories covering most of the above categories, sports-inspired lifestyle apparel, as well as athletic bags and accessory items. NIKE apparel and accessories are designed to complement our athletic footwear products, feature the same trademarks and are sold through the same marketing and distribution channels. We also market apparel with licensed college and professional team and league logos. We sell a line of performance equipment under the NIKE brand name, including bags, socks, sport balls, eyewear, timepieces, electronic devices, bats, gloves, protective equipment, golf clubs, and other equipment designed for sports activities. We also have agreements for licensees to produce and sell NIKE brand swimwear, team sports apparel, training equipment, children’s clothing, electronic devices, eyewear, golf accessories, and belts.” The company owns Cole Haan, Converse Inc. Hurley International and Umbro Ltd. who also produce athletic and leisure footwear and accessories. Page 4 Nike Analysis Report Source: Nike Inc. 10-K Report 20081 Geographic Product Sales Source: CapitalIQ1 United States Market The company’s US market share is well known as it is one of the most recognizable brands. From the 10K, “In fiscal 2008, sales in the United States including U.S. sales of Cole Haan, Converse, Exeter Brands Group (which we sold in December, 2007), Hurley, Umbro, NIKE Bauer Hockey (which we sold in April, 2008) and NIKE Golf accounted for approximately 43 percent of total revenues, compared to 47 percent in fiscal 2007 and 47 percent in fiscal 2006. We estimate that we sell to more than 25,000 retail accounts in the United States. The NIKE brand domestic retail account base includes a mix of footwear stores, sporting goods stores, athletic specialty stores, department stores, skate, tennis and golf shops, and other retail accounts. During fiscal year 2008, our three largest customers accounted for approximately 24 percent of NIKE brand sales in the United States.” The company as well uses their innovative “futures” ordering program through which retailers order in advance (5-6 mo.) for delivery at a specified date and price.”In fiscal year 2008, 86 percent of our U.S. wholesale footwear shipments (excluding Cole Haan, Converse, Exeter Brands Group, Hurley, NIKE Golf, Umbro, and NIKE Bauer Hockey) were made under the futures program, compared to 94 percent in fiscal 2007 and 90 percent in fiscal 2006. In fiscal 2008, 62 percent of our U.S. wholesale apparel shipments (excluding Cole Haan, Converse, Exeter Brands Group, Hurley, NIKE Golf, Umbro, and NIKE Bauer Hockey) were made under the futures program, compared to 65 percent in fiscal 2007 and 2006.” Source: Nike Inc. 10-K Report 20081 Page 5 Nike Analysis Report International Markets Nike is an international company that earns revenue all over the world. Nike’s international business represents strong growth prospects which should continue to be very profitable in the future. From the 10K, “In fiscal 2008, non-U.S. sales (including non-U.S. sales of Cole Haan, Converse, Exeter Brands Group, Hurley, NIKE Bauer Hockey, Umbro, and NIKE Golf) accounted for 57 percent of total revenues, compared to 53 percent in fiscal 2007 and 53 percent in fiscal 2006. We sell our products to retail accounts, through NIKE-owned retail stores, and through a mix of independent distributors and licensees around the world. We estimate that we sell to more than 27,000 retail accounts outside the United States, excluding sales by independent distributors and licensees. We operate 11 distribution centers outside of the United States. In many countries and regions, including Canada, Asia, some Latin American countries, and Europe, we have a futures ordering program for retailers similar to the United States futures program described above. NIKE’s three largest customers outside of the U.S. accounted for approximately 9 percent of total non-U.S. sales.” Source: Nike Inc. 10-K Report 20081 Geographic Sales Summation Nike’s revenue stream is globally distributed giving them solid exposure to both developed and developing markets. Their level of exposure to the international market gives the company a favorable position for the future as well as supporting current earnings. Specifically, we believe that their position in the developing markets as well as their position in China sets the company apart from their competitors. China’s market is very lucrative because of both the size and the country’s recent progression in the sport of basketball. Nike is one of the leading producers of high-end basketball shoes and should greatly benefit from their exposure to China. As well, less developed markets like India, Brazil and Africa should also generate a large amount of future profits for the company. This is due to the fact that as the markets mature in the future, the amount of discretionary funds per person will also increase. When the level of discretionary income increases consumers will be more apt to purchase higher-end athletic shoes; the shoes will most likely be produced by Nike because of their large well-known brand name. (Note: the forecasted revenue growth broken down by region and then by product is found in the appendix) Page 6 Nike Analysis Report Sector Data Nike is in the Consumer Discretionary Sector and is classified in the Consumer Durables and Apparel subsector. Consumer Discretionary sector data is located below and the subsector will be developed later in this section. US Consumer Discretionary by Market Capitalization The consumer discretionary sector is by definition products that are purchased at the discretion of the consumer; they are not considered to be necessities. As well, it encompasses those industries that tend to be the most sensitive to economic cycles. Its manufacturing segment includes automotive, household durable goods, textiles & apparel and leisure equipment. The services segment includes hotels, restaurants and other leisure facilities, media production and services, and consumer retailing and services. Consumer Discretionary Sector (international companies included) Source: CapitalIQ3 Page 7 Nike Analysis Report Subsector Data (Consumer Durables and Apparel) There are five sub-industries within the scope of consumer discretionary: Automobiles and Components, Consumer Durables and Apparel, Consumer Services, Media and Retailing Competition The main competitors of Nike Inc. that will be used in this report are UnderArmor Inc., K Swiss Inc., Skechers USA Inc. and Adidas AG. Nike’s amounts of products are very diverse and accordingly a diverse range of companies that have comparable aspects to Nike have been chosen. Adidas AG is arguably Nike’s closest competitor however company information is difficult to obtain because the company’s equity is not traded on a US exchange. UnderArmour is mainly in the athletic apparel industry however Skechers and KSwiss are mainly in the footwear industry. All of these industries are very competitive with different companies constantly competing for market share both in the US and on the international level. From the 10K , “The intense competition and the rapid changes in technology and consumer preferences in the markets for athletic and leisure footwear and apparel, and athletic equipment, constitute significant risk factors in our operations. NIKE is the largest seller of athletic footwear and athletic apparel in the world. Performance and reliability of shoes, apparel, and equipment, new product development, price, product identity through marketing and promotion, and customer support and service are important aspects of competition in the athletic footwear, apparel and equipment industry. To help market our products, we contract with prominent and influential athletes, coaches, teams, colleges and sports leagues to endorse our brands and Page 8 Nike Analysis Report use our products, and we actively sponsor sporting events and clinics. We believe that we are competitive in all of these areas.” Market Share Source: Wikinvest Nike is well positioned in the global footwear market and has a solid market share in the global athletic apparel market. As can be seen in the right graph, there is not a dominant company in the athletic apparel market but Nike has a good market share which should continue to grow over the years either through organic or acquisitions. Porter’s Five Buyer Power (Low) Buyers in this industry are extremely fragmented. High degree of brand equity has historically made buyers less price sensitive. Nike owns a lot of retail stores; this lessens the power of third party retailers. Supplier Power – (Low) Firms typically contract manufacturers over seas. There are tons of manufacturers competing for contracts. – Allows firms to exhibit significant influence over suppliers. Single suppliers don’t provide a substantial amount of product to these companies (save UA). Raw materials are readily available. Threat of Entry – (Low) High degree of brand equity and loyal customers make it hard for new firms to gain market share. – Highly competitive industry Difficult for firms to obtain capital to buy fixed assets needed and establish distribution network. – Advertising/Marketing new products also very expensive. Threat of Substitutes – (None) No pure substitutes for athletic footwear and apparel. Page 9 Nike Analysis Report Very little threat of technological innovation producing substitutes. Rivalry – (High) Several dominate firms in the industry competing intensely for market share. Swings in consumer preferences increase competition to stay on top of trends. Very low consumer switching costs. SWOT Analysis Strengths NKE has an incredibly strong global brand. This is critical especially in a weakening global economy – With a strong revenue stream, NKE is able to contract the most popular athletes for endorsements – Helps keep the margins fat Nike has no factories so it does not tie up cash in manufacturing labor and plants Futures ordering system allows NKE to actively manage inventory Geographically diversified, which has helped NKE maintain strong revenues Able to leverage high global market share to its advantage Very strong financial position Weaknesses To grow in the USA in the future, NKE will need to continue to gain market share/grow inorganically. Very large amount of NKE revenue comes from USA footwear market (~23%) which is highly competitive and saturated. NKE will be vulnerable if it looses market share. – Opportunities Nike has exposure to emerging markets and thus fantastic growth opportunities. Well positioned to take advantage of consumer shift to healthier lifestyles. As the retail industry continues to falter, NKE continues to expand and gain market share. – NKE will be well positioned in the future Threats The footwear and greater retail industry has become increasingly competitive. Nike must maintain its brand equity and continue to anticipate fashion trends. Inventory buildup – Inventories up 9% YOY in Q2. Increased pressure on margins due to Nike-owned retail expansion. Forex Translation Continued Economic Downturn – Delayed Purchases – Trading down Opportunities Nike has exposure to emerging markets and thus fantastic growth opportunities. Well positioned to take advantage of consumer shift to healthier lifestyles. As the retail industry continues to falter, NKE continues to expand and gain market share. – NKE will be well positioned in the future Page 10 Nike Analysis Report Analysis: As a whole, the athletic apparel and footwear market seems very attractive. Both suppliers and customers have relatively little power over the firms which compete in this space; there is virtually no threat of substitutes and it would be excessively difficult for firms to enter this industry. The one drawback is that there is intense rivalry present. Several large firms compete intensely for market share, which is limited. This is especially true in the United States market, which is growing at a slower rate than other international markets. We believe Nike is uniquely suited for this competition, and has performed well in spite of the crowded space due to several core competencies. Core Competencies Branding: Nike has been extremely successful in creating a worldwide brand. This has been accomplished via product design as well as high profile celebrity endorsements such as LeBron James and Tiger Woods. Nike currently has over $3.5 billion slated for endorsement contracts between 2009 and 2013, and that fails to account for future advertising and sport sponsorships. This branding has given Nike significant pricing control as it has created an insatiable consumer demand for the company’s famous “swoosh”. This is displayed in the financial condition ratios section where it can be seen that Nike’s ROE, ROA and net income margins are well above the other comparable companies in the industry. Supply Chain Management: In addition to branding, Nike has one of the world’s best supply chains. Nike does not own have any factories, allowing them to avoid tying up cash in manufacturing facilities. There are a multitude of suppliers which compete for contracts with Nike; as a result there is very little supplier risk for the firm. Nike also has a phenomenally managed inventory system. Nike employs a system called the “futures” ordering system, in which third party retailers place and pay for orders 6 months in advance. This helps Nike more actively anticipate future sales and adjust inventory levels accordingly. In FY 2008, 86% of US footwear and 62% of US apparel were ordered through this system. Finally, Nike has developed multiple ways to effectively reach its end consumer. The company operates 13 distribution facilities, 11 of which are outside of the US. This allows for quick shipping to customers anywhere in the world. Nike operates over 500 stores worldwide, in addition to selling through third-party retailers and operating several websites for direct selling. Nike also operates a customizable “NikeID” website to allow customers to design Nike products to their personal tastes. Insider-Institutional Ownership Nike Inc. Page 11 Nike Analysis Report Source: CapitalIQ3 Nike is largely owned by institutions, which is a positive signal for the company because it shows that institutional managers believe the security is a solid investment. As was discussed in lecture, the institutional managers have most of the purchasing power in the market and this is a good sign for the company Recent Insider Trading Source: CapitalIQ3 Insider activity has largely been selling in the recent past, this is because of both profit taking when Nike’s stock was close to its high as well as the recent turmoil in the financial markets. The most recent insider buy is a positive signal for the stock showing that the company’s insiders feel the security is currently undervalued. Nike vs. Comparables Page 12 Nike Analysis Report Adidas Source: CapitalIQ3 Adidas common stock is not traded on an exchange in the US which makes the company’s information harder to find. The company’s stock is mostly owned by the public and is partially owned by institutions. There is no insider ownership which can be viewed as a negative signal for the security. UnderArmour Source: CapitalIQ3 UnderArmour Inc. is a much smaller company than Nike and historically has focused on the athletic apparel business but has recently started to market products in other areas such as footwear. The company is mostly owned by institutions and the recent insider activity has been mostly buying which is a positive signal. Skechers USA Page 13 Nike Analysis Report Source: CapitalIQ3 Skechers is mostly owned by institutions and has a fairly substantial level of insider ownership. Insider activity has been negligible in the recent past. K Swiss Source: CapitalIQ3 KSwiss stock is almost completely owned by institutions and the rest of the company’s equity is owned by insiders. Insider activity in the recent past has not been material. Page 14 Nike Analysis Report The Future of the Company Analyst Earnings & Sales Estimates Analyst forecasts for revenue in the current year and for the next year are slightly higher than one year ago levels of revenue and are on the conservative side due to the turbulent market environment. EPS estimates for the current quarter are 81 cents per share which is the same estimate as the prior year. In the prior year the company exceeded these estimates by 14 percent. Current year forecasted EPS is flat with a forecasted improvement in the following year. Below analysts give growth forecasts for Nike, their industry, their sector and the market overall. It is important to mention that these are just forecasts. We disagree with the forecasts for Nike for this year because we feel with their level of exposure they will surpass analyst expectations as they have done in the past. Source: YahooFinance Positive or Negative Earnings Surprises Source: YahooFinance Nike Inc. is predicted to remain a long term profitable company and is expected to continue to set the bar in the several industries. Historically, the company is able to meet its targets and beat analyst expectations. Analysts believe this high level of performance is going to continue in the future. Page 15 Nike Analysis Report Expert Opinions (Forecasts) Source: Bloomberg Terminal2 Analysts currently have given Nike a buy rating overall with a target price of $61.44. We feel that this target price is on the conservative side because of both the qualitative and quantitative attributes of Nike. Our target price will be discussed later in this report. Historical Financial Analysis Stock Price Performance (5 YR HISTORY) Nike vs. Comparable Companies Source: CapitalIQ3 This chart depicts Nike’s stock price performance measured against the performance of its peer group discussed earlier. The peer group consists of UnderArmor Inc., K Swiss Inc., Skechers USA Inc. and Adidas AG. Nike’s stock price has outperformed their peers over the past five years (aggregate) however the entire group’s prices have decreased recently because of the current financial crisis. Page 16 Nike Analysis Report Nike vs. Portfolio of Comparables Source: CapitalIQ3 This chart shows Nike’s stock performance measured against the consumer discretionary sector as a whole. Nike’s stock has largely outperformed the consumer discretionary sector over the past five years showing its dominance in the sector. Source: Nike Inc. 10-K Report 20081 This chart shows Nike’s equity performance measured against the S&P 500 Index, the DJ US Footwear Index, and the S&P Apparel, Accessories and Luxury Goods Index. Nike has outperformed each of these indexes since May 2003. (Note: This chart’s performance measure is not as recent as the other charts and is from May 2008) Page 17 Nike Analysis Report Nike vs. Market Source: CapitalIQ3 This graph denotes Nike’s stock performance compared to the S&P 500 Index and shows that Nike has largely outperformed the market over the past five years. Page 18 Growth Performance Nike Ratios For the Fiscal Period Ending Growth Over Prior Year Total Revenue Gross Profit EBITDA EBITA EBIT Earnings from Cont. Ops. Net Income Normalized Net Income Diluted EPS before Extra Accounts Receivable Inventory Net PP&E Total Assets Tangible Book Value Common Equity Cash from Ops. Capital Expenditures Levered Free Cash Flow Unlevered Free Cash Flow Dividend per Share LTM 12 months Nov-30-2008 12 months May-31-2008 12 months May-31-2007 12 months May-31-2006 12 months May-31-2005 12 months May-31-2004 13.6% 17.3% 9.8% 9.4% 9.5% 8.0% 8.0% 6.7% 10.6% 14.1% 17.1% 13.9% 14.1% 14.2% 26.3% 26.3% 12.5% 27.7% 9.2% 8.7% 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 7.1% 7.1% 1.4% 10.9% 8.8% 7.7% 11.1% 11.4% 11.4% 14.9% 14.9% 15.2% 17.7% 12.1% 16.4% 15.9% 18.3% 22.2% 28.1% 28.1% 28.3% 27.8% 14.5% 19.8% 24.9% 28.4% 26.1% 27.8% 99.5% 29.1% 26.8% 4.6% 8.8% 6.3% 10.3% 12.0% 14.9% 12.7% 16.4% 4.7% 2.2% 1.2% 8.3% 5.3% 14.7% 3.2% 12.2% 6.7% 9.8% (0.4%) 11.2% 1.7% 8.9% (0.6%) 15.9% 2.0% 8.3% (29.0%) 31.1% (39.3%) (39.3%) 19.7% 2.3% 11.4% 3.1% 43.3% (1.2%) (1.2%) 23.2% 12.8% 11.8% 12.6% (6.1%) 8.8% 8.8% 20.3% 12.7% 11.4% 6.2% 29.8% 14.0% 13.7% 24.2% 19.2% 18.0% 3.4% 19.7% (3.3%) (4.5%) 28.4% 12.4% 19.8% 64.7% 15.5% 63.1% 61.0% 37.0% Source: CapitalIQ3 Nike’s growth performance YoY is shown for the past five fiscal years as well as the trailing twelve months from 10/30/2008. Nike has shown healthy top line growth while maintaining solid margins and an efficient operating environment. Gross profit as well as EBITDA, EBIT and normalized NI have shown good growth demonstrating the earning power of the company as well as its ability to control costs while expanding its market share globally. Source: CapitalIQ3 This figure denotes the same results as above however the absolute values and margins are shown instead of just YoY growth. Page 19 Nike Analysis Report Nike vs. Comparables NKE Nike Inc. Total Revenue Annual Growth EBITDA Annual Growth Margin UA Under Armour, Inc. Total Revenue Annual Growth EBITDA Annual Growth Margin KSW S K-Swiss Inc. Total Revenue Annual Growth EBITDA Annual Growth Margin DB:ADS Adidas AG Total Revenue Annual Growth EBITDA Annual Growth Margin SKX Skechers USA Inc. Total Revenue Annual Growth EBITDA Annual Growth Margin 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 $12,253.1 $13,739.7 $14,954.9 $16,325.9 $18,627.0 12.1% 8.8% 9.2% 14.1% 1,863.2 2,160.2 2,401.0 2,411.4 2,746.5 15.9% 11.1% 0.4% 13.9% 15.2% 15.7% 16.1% 14.8% 14.7% 996 997 998 999 1000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 $205.2 $281.1 $430.7 $606.6 $725.2 37.0% 53.2% 40.8% 19.6% 28.6 42.4 66.7 100.9 98.3 48.3% 57.6% 51.2% (2.6%) 13.9% 15.1% 15.5% 16.6% 13.6% 996 997 998 999 1000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 $429.2 $484.1 $508.6 $501.1 $410.4 12.8% 5.1% (1.5%) (18.1%) 88.9 102.9 108.8 101.4 34.7 15.7% 5.7% (6.8%) (65.8%) 20.7% 21.3% 21.4% 20.2% 8.4% 996 997 998 999 1000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 $7,931.2 $7,416.3 $8,398.4 $12,762.1 $13,034.2 (6.5%) 13.2% 52.0% 2.1% 813.2 889.8 1,056.8 1,388.3 1,446.6 9.4% 18.8% 31.4% 4.2% 10.3% 12.0% 12.6% 10.9% 11.1% 996 997 998 999 1000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 $920.3 $1,006.5 $1,205.4 $1,394.2 $1,440.7 9.4% 19.8% 15.7% 3.3% 70.3 99.8 129.2 130.6 75.2 42.0% 29.5% 1.0% (42.4%) 7.6% 9.9% 10.7% 9.4% 5.2% Source: CapitalIQ3 The companies that Nike is measured against for the purposes of this report (UnderArmor Inc., K Swiss Inc., Skechers USA Inc. and Adidas AG) have for the most part achieved fairly good operating results. UnderArmour’s top line growth is by far the highest because of the company’s size and the fact that they are a relatively new company. KSwiss, Adidas and Skechers have all had decreasing revenues in the most recent years however Nike has maintained fairly consistent growth further proving their relative strength in their industry. Financial Performance Management outlines the companies past financial successes as well as their future goals in the 10K as follows, “We strive to convert revenue growth to shareholder value by driving operating excellence in several key areas: Making our supply chain a competitive advantage, through operational discipline, Reducing product costs through a continued focus on lean manufacturing and product design that strives to eliminate waste, Improving selling and administrative expense productivity by focusing on investments that drive economic returns in the form of incremental revenue and gross margin, and leveraging existing infrastructure across our portfolio of brands to eliminate duplicative costs, Improving working capital efficiency, Deploying capital effectively to create value for our shareholders.” These goals are aimed at generating solid and consistent future revenues in the high single digits with mid-teens EPS growth through efficient Page 20 Nike Analysis Report operations. The company is also aiming to maintain consistent results throughout their diverse portfolio of companies. Nike’s management commentary is below. “ In fiscal 2008 we met or exceeded these financial goals. Our revenues grew 14% to $18.6 billion, net income grew 26% to $1.9 billion, and we delivered diluted earnings per share of $3.74, a 28% increase versus fiscal 2007. We estimate that the combination of favorable translation of foreign currency-denominated profits from international businesses and the foreign currency losses included in other (expense) income, net resulted in a year-over-year increase in consolidated income before income taxes of approximately 6%. For the year, the increase in net income was higher than our rate of revenue growth due to a reduction in our effective tax rate and improved gross margins, partially offset by higher selling and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue. Fiscal 2008 results were positively affected by a reduction in our effective tax rate of 7.4 percentage points as compared to fiscal 2007, primarily as a result of the $105.4 million one-time tax benefit received in the first quarter of fiscal 2008. Also reflected in the yearover-year effective tax rate improvement was a reduction in our ongoing effective tax rate resulting from our profits earned outside of the United States; our effective tax rates for these operations are generally lower than the U.S. statutory rate. Gross margins for the year grew 110 basis points versus the prior year as inventory management and strategic price increases were partially offset by higher product costs and increased closeout sales. The increase in selling and administrative expenses was attributable to higher investments in growth drivers such as athlete and sport team endorsers of our products, spending around major sporting events, key product initiatives, investments in company owned retail and non-NIKE brand businesses as well as normal wage increases. Our earnings per share for the year grew at a higher rate than net income given lower outstanding shares due to repurchases made under our share repurchase program. In addition, we increased cash flow from operations and continued to return larger amounts of cash to shareholders through higher dividends and increased cash paid for share repurchases. Our return on invested capital increased as compared to fiscal 2007. Although we may not meet all of the financial goals outlined above in any particular fiscal quarter or fiscal year, we continue to believe these are appropriate long-term goals.” Source: Nike Inc. 10-K Report 20081 F2Q09 Results • • • • • • • Record revenue of $4bn, up 6% YOY. o Global footwear up 7% o Global apparel up 6% Futures orders up 6% in USA Revenue in Europe up 4% o Futures orders slightly down Emerging markets revenue up 21% Revenue in Asia up 17% o Continued strong growth out of China, where revenues and futures were up 27% and 25% respectively. Americas revenue up 23%, futures up 26% USA revenue down 1%, Some margin pressure to increasing input costs. Page 21 Nike Analysis Report Financial Ratios Nike Ratios LTM 12 months Nov-30-2008 12 months May-31-2008 12 months May-31-2007 12 months May-31-2006 12 months May-31-2005 12 months May-31-2004 Profitability Return on Assets % Return on Capital % Return on Equity % 13.0% 18.4% 23.8% 13.2% 19.0% 25.4% 13.0% 18.3% 22.4% 14.1% 19.7% 23.3% 14.2% 19.7% 23.2% 13.2% 18.6% 21.6% Margin Analysis Gross Margin % SG&A Margin % EBITDA Margin % EBITA Margin % EBIT Margin % Earnings from Cont. Ops Margin % Net Income Margin % Net Income Avail. for Common Margin % Normalized Net Income Margin % Levered Free Cash Flow Margin % Unlevered Free Cash Flow Margin % 45.7% 33.0% 14.4% 12.8% 12.7% 9.4% 9.4% 9.4% 7.9% 4.7% 4.7% 45.0% 32.0% 14.7% 13.1% 13.1% 10.1% 10.1% 10.1% 8.2% 6.6% 6.6% 43.9% 30.8% 14.8% 13.1% 13.1% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1% 8.3% 7.7% 7.7% 44.0% 29.9% 16.1% 14.2% 14.1% 9.3% 9.3% 9.3% 9.0% 7.7% 7.7% 44.5% 30.7% 15.7% 13.9% 13.8% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 8.5% 7.3% 7.4% 42.9% 30.2% 15.2% 13.1% 12.6% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.4% 8.5% 8.6% 1.6x 10.7x 7.3x 4.6x 1.6x 10.4x 7.0x 4.5x 1.6x 9.8x 6.7x 4.4x 1.6x 9.2x 6.4x 4.3x 1.6x 8.5x 6.3x 4.4x 1.7x 7.6x 5.8x 4.4x For the Fiscal Period Ending Asset Turnover Total Asset Turnover Fixed Asset Turnover Accounts Receivable Turnover Inventory Turnover Source: CapitalIQ3 Nike, due to their solid earnings over the past five years, have generated very solid returns as measured by ROQ, ROC and ROE. GM percentages have been well maintained as well as SG&A costs margin. Due to solid cost management and higher than average earnings, NI and FCF have maintained solid margins as well. TAT has remained relatively constant and AR and INV turnover have maintained consistent results. Nike vs. Comparables NKE UA KSWS DB:ADS SKX Nike Inc. Under Armour, Inc. K-Swiss Inc. Adidas AG Skechers USA Inc. Normalized 1 Yr Price Trailing PE Forward PE EPS Growth $ 39.94 12.75 11.34 5.76% $ 12.33 14.90 16.90 5.84% $ 6.99 38.22 0.00% $ 29.05 9.07 7.34 -4.59% $ 5.71 6.72 4.81 -73.53% PEG Price/Sales Price/Book 0.86 1.05 2.38 0.87 0.83 1.84 46.64 0.59 0.59 0.45 1.38 0.18 0.39 Source: CapitalIQ3 Nike’s financial ratios as compared to their main competitors (previously mentioned companies) show how financially stable the company is. Their normalized P/E ratio is around the middle of their peer group while their projected EPS growth is at the high end of the relative spectrum. Their PEG is less than one which is a positive signal for the company and their P/S and P/B are on the higher end of the group. The trailing P/E ratio is actually lower when the amount of cash that the company has on their books is factored in. Page 22 Nike Analysis Report Financial Condition Ratios Nike vs. Comparables NKE UA KSWS DB:ADS SKX NKE UA KSWS DB:ADS SKX Nike Inc. Under Armour, Inc. K-Swiss Inc. Adidas AG Skechers USA Inc. ROA 12.97 10.95 0.41 6.90 4.25 ROE 23.78 12.50 8.56 19.03 8.55 ROC 18.41 14.32 0.47 10.59 5.43 Nike Inc. Under Armour, Inc. K-Swiss Inc. Adidas AG Skechers USA Inc. Asset TO 1.63 1.65 0.79 1.17 1.69 Inventory TO 4.59 2.13 3.16 3.20 3.63 Receivables TO 7.34 8.30 7.61 5.36 8.41 Current 2.89 2.98 8.38 1.99 3.20 Quick 1.77 1.38 6.79 0.96 1.58 Dividend Yield 2.5% 0.0% 2.8% 2.2% 0.0% Payout 24% 0% 20% 16% 0% Source: CapitalIQ3 Nike’s ROE, ROA and ROC are all higher than their peers and their current and quick ratios are close the groups average. Trading Multiples Multiples Detail For Quarter Ending TEV/LTM Total Revenue TEV/NTM Total Revenues TEV/LTM EBITDA TEV/NTM EBITDA TEV/LTM EBIT P/LTM EPS P/NTM EPS P/LTM Normalized EPS P/BV P/Tangible BV TEV/LTM Unlevered FCF Market Cap/LTM Levered FCF Mar-05-2009 0.89x 0.90x 6.15x 5.77x 6.96x 10.69x 10.35x 12.75x 2.38x 2.73x 18.92x 21.02x Dec-31-2008 1.16x 1.15x 8.08x 7.56x 9.13x 13.66x 13.04x 16.28x 3.04x 3.48x - Sep-30-2008 1.59x 1.48x 11.00x 9.95x 12.41x 18.37x 15.76x 21.57x 4.06x 4.73x - Jun-30-2008 1.46x 1.35x 9.84x 9.07x 11.18x 15.95x 15.21x 19.69x 3.74x 4.42x - Mar-31-2008 1.76x 1.58x 11.34x 10.94x 12.95x 18.82x 18.07x 22.19x 4.41x 4.73x - Dec-31-2007 1.71x 1.55x 11.54x 10.45x 12.94x 19.03x 17.68x 22.41x 4.27x 4.60x - Sep-28-2007 1.62x 1.48x 10.89x 10.28x 12.24x 17.72x 16.95x 21.08x 3.98x 4.30x - Jun-29-2007 1.66x 11.39x 12.74x 19.93x 21.62x 4.18x 4.53x - Risk Factors • • • • Continued macroeconomic downturn resulting in extensively lower consumer spending associated with a worldwide GDP contraction Market saturation and potential lack of room for growth Intense competition and ability to anticipate consumer preferences and develop new products as well as the potential lack of high quality endorsers Seasonal nature of business and “Futures” orders accuracy and inventory levels Financial health of our retailers, Credit Risk and Currency exchange rate fluctuations Page 23 Nike Analysis Report • • • • Intellectual property rights being protected Inherent operational risks of international business and overseas sourcing, manufacturing, and financing as well as Global distribution facilities and their impact on international revenue generation Rely significantly on information technology in our supply chain as well as the company’s reliance on technical innovation and high quality products in order to compete Phil Knight owns a large share of stock, the sale of which could depress market prices of company’s equity Nike has many risk factors that should be mentioned while conducting a thorough company analysis. The two most material risk factors are mentioned in the Investment Thesis section and are as well displayed in the preceding list. The continued macroeconomic downturn is a risk that affects every business in the world because of the downturn’s affect on the consumer however we feel that Nike is shielded from the better part of this risk because of their efficient management, brand equity and loyal customer base. We as well feel that the economic downturn cannot continue indefinitely and that Nike will be able to “weather the storm” and continue to lead their industry. The other main risk factor of potential market saturation and lack of room for growth is extremely material and should be discussed. We feel that Nike’s growth prospects, due to their large market share in the US as well as their high level of exposure internationally should mitigate this risk. Below are details regarding the company’s exact figures which should ensure their continued revenue growth and overall success. Dominate presence in many emerging economies. – Emerging economies rev. up 21% YOY Q2. • Argentina, Russia, China, Brazil, Mexico Strong growth from established economies. – Canada up 10% YOY – Japan up 7% YOY Market share gain in the US – 3% gain in share Q2 YOY These strong results position Nike to continue to grow. The other risk factors that affect the company are mentioned after the two most important that are discussed above. These are broad risks that affect most businesses and assert that Nike’s overall company strength, financial position and brand equity should mitigate and control these risks. Page 24 Nike Analysis Report Cost of Capital, Capital Structure Analysis & Distributions Analysis of Firm’s Capital Structure Capital Structure Data For the Fiscal Period Ending 12 months May-31-2008 Units Total Debt Total Common Equity Total Preferred Equity Total Capital 12 months May-31-2007 12 months May-31-2006 Millions % of Total Millions % of Total Millions % of Total 625.1 7,825.3 0.3 8,450.7 7.4% 92.6% 0.0% 100.0% 541.2 7,025.4 0.3 7,566.9 7.2% 92.8% 0.0% 100.0% 709.4 6,285.2 0.3 6,994.9 10.1% 89.9% 0.0% 100.0% Source: CapitalIQ3 Nike does not use a large amount of debt financing in their capital structure which is extremely positive and material in the current market conditions. Nike is well positioned to remain extremely financially healthy and stable even through the current global economic contraction. Ratios LTM 12 months Nov-30-2008 12 months May-31-2008 12 months May-31-2007 12 months May-31-2006 12 months May-31-2005 12 months May-31-2004 2.9x 1.8x 0.5x 49.9 79.7 36.7 92.8 2.7x 1.7x 0.6x 52.0 81.5 40.4 93.1 3.1x 2.1x 0.7x 54.5 83.6 39.5 98.6 2.8x 1.8x 0.6x 56.7 84.8 36.5 105.0 3.2x 2.0x 0.8x 58.2 82.9 36.5 104.6 2.7x 1.6x 0.7x 62.8 82.7 34.7 110.8 9.8% 8.9% 5.5% 5.0% 35.8% 8.0% 7.4% 5.6% 5.2% 37.1% 7.7% 7.2% 5.8% 5.4% 34.3% 11.3% 10.1% 6.5% 5.9% 36.3% 13.5% 11.9% 12.2% 10.7% 35.8% 17.5% 14.9% 14.3% 12.1% 39.5% EBIT / Interest Exp. EBITDA / Interest Exp. (EBITDA-CAPEX) / Interest Exp. Total Debt/EBITDA Net Debt/EBITDA Total Debt/(EBITDA-CAPEX) Net Debt/(EBITDA-CAPEX) NA NA NA 0.3x NM 0.3x NM NA NA NA 0.2x NM 0.3x NM NA NA NA 0.2x NM 0.3x NM NA NA NA 0.3x NM 0.3x NM NM NM NM 0.4x NM 0.4x NM 62.0x 74.5x 65.9x 0.4x NM 0.5x NM Altman Z Score 6.37 6.73 NA NA NA 7.46 For the Fiscal Period Ending Short Term Liquidity Current Ratio Quick Ratio Cash from Ops. to Curr. Liab. Avg. Days Sales Out. Avg. Days Inventory Out. Avg. Days Payable Out. Avg. Cash Conversion Cycle Long Term Solvency Total Debt/Equity Total Debt/Capital LT Debt/Equity LT Debt/Capital Total Liabilities/Total Assets Source: CapitalIQ3 Nike is a very solvent company with low levels of debt and liabilities as compared to equity, capital and assets. As was previously mentioned, Nike’s capital structure is very healthy and further contributes to their financial stability and future financial outlook. Page 25 Nike Analysis Report Analysis of the Competitors Capital Structure NKE UA KSWS DB:ADS SKX Total LT Debt incl. Cap Leases 441.10 13.16 2,719.74 16.19 Nike Inc. Under Armour, Inc. K-Swiss Inc. Adidas AG Skechers USA Inc. Total Equity 7,825.60 331.10 384.23 3,825.86 668.69 D/E 10% 14% 2% 88% 3% LT D/E 5% 4% 0% 88% 2% Source: CapitalIQ3 Nike’s competitors are now heavily debt finance with the exception of Adidas who is very heavily levered. In the current market we feel that this is a large negative signal for Adidas. Nike is similarly positioned from a capital structure position than their competitors however the company currently has enough cash on their balance sheet to cover all of their debt both short term and long term. Debt Schedule Description Type 1.5% Japanese Yen Loan Term Loans Principal Due (USD) 47.4 Coupon Rate 1.500% Maturity Feb-14-2012 Seniority Senior Secured Yes Convertible No Repayment Currency JPY 2.0% Japanese Yen Loan Term Loans 24.4 2.000% 8-20-2001 - 2020 Senior No No JPY 2.6% Japanese Yen Loan Term Loans 54.5 2.600% 8-20-2001 - 2020 Senior No No JPY 4.3% Japanese Yen Note, Payable Bonds and June 26, 2011 Notes 99.6 4.300% Jun-26-2011 Senior No No JPY 4.7% Corporate Bond, Payable October 1, 2013 Bonds and Notes 50.0 4.700% Oct-01-2013 Senior No No USD 5.15% Corporate Bonds, Payable October 15, 2015 Bonds and Notes 104.5 5.150% Oct-15-2015 Senior No No USD 5.375% Corporate Bond, Payable July 8, 2009 Bonds and Notes 25.5 5.375% Jul-08-2009 Senior No No USD 5.4% Corporate Bond, Payable August 7, 2012 Bonds and Notes 15.4 5.400% Aug-07-2012 Senior No No USD 5.66% Corporate Bond, Payable July 23, 2012 Bonds and Notes 26.1 5.660% Jul-23-2012 Senior No No USD Source: CapitalIQ3 Nike does not utilize a large amount of debt in their capital structure. The debt that the company does possess is more than covered by the company’s cash on hand. We feel that this is a very positive signal for the company because of the current credit markets. Beta Source: Bloomberg The beta for Nike as calculated with a regression analysis is 1.023. We found Nike’s beta ranging from .76 to 1.023 and decided to take the conservative approach and are thus using the highest beta found of 1.023. Page 26 Nike Analysis Report Cost of Capital WACC CAPM Risk Free Rate 10 yr T bill Market Risk Premium Beta CAPM Cost of Debt Rating Spread Adjusted Cost of Debt Synthetic Cost of Debt Tax Rate 2.90% 6.630% 1.023 9.68% A+ 2.0% 6.5% 4.9% 0.34 Capital Structure Details Debt/Cap Equity/Cap 8.91% 91% WACC 9.20% The weighted average cost of capital that is calculated and used in order to discount future cash flows to their present value is shown above. The CAPM was used with a 10yr Treasury Bill rate of four percent, a 6.63 percent calculated market risk premium and a 1.023 beta (see beta section). The market risk premium was calculated using Damadoran’s method of discounting the dividend growth of the S&P 500. This calculation yielded a value of 9.68 percent and is used as Nike’s cost of equity capital. Nike’s cost of debt, because of their A+ rating, is 6.5 percent which is combined with the aforementioned cost of equity (based on capital structure percentages) to yield a WACC of 9.2 percent for Nike. Distributions (Dividends & Share Repurchases) Historical Dividends (Absolute values) Source: Nike Inc. 10-K Report 20081 Historical Growth Rates YOY Ratios For the Fiscal Period Ending Dividend per Share LTM 12 months Nov-30-2008 19.7% 12 months May-31-2008 23.2% 12 months May-31-2007 20.3% 12 months May-31-2006 24.2% 12 months May-31-2005 28.4% 12 months May-31-2004 37.0% Source: CapitalIQ3 Personal Forecast of Future Behavior We believe that Nike will continue to maintain a consist level of dividends regardless of the current economic environment. The company’s payout ratio has historically ranged Page 27 Nike Analysis Report from 20-30 percent and we expect that this level will be consistent. The historical payout ratios are below. Dividends per Share Payout Ratio % 2003 0.27 0.29 2004 0.37 0.19 2005 0.48 0.20 2006 0.59 0.21 2007 0.71 0.23 2008 0.88 0.22 We decided to keep the payout ratio at a constant of 24 percent for the purposes of modeling the future growth and overall company health of Nike. The results are detailed below. 2009E 1.00 0.24 Dividends per Share Payout Ratio % 2010E 0.74 0.24 Projections 2011E 0.86 0.24 2012E 1.02 0.24 2013E 1.18 0.24 Financial Statement Forecasts Presentation of Pro Forma Financial Statements Historical Financial Statements (Note): See “Historical Financials” in Appendix for full historical financial statements. Presentation of Projections (Note): See “Projected Financials & Valuation” in Appendix for full projected financial statements. Cash Flow Valuation DCF Analysis - Millions Year Revenue Operating Expenses 2009E 2010E Projections 2011E 2012E 2013E % of REVENUE 18,691.0 19,339.2 20,546.0 21,255.9 21,681.0 16,448.0 17,018.5 17,875.0 18,067.5 17,995.2 88% 88% 87% 85% 83% EBIT Taxes Net of Tax Dep/Amort 2,242.92 762.59 1,480.32 352.33 2,320.71 789.04 1,531.67 382.64 2,670.98 908.13 1,762.85 414.83 3,188.38 1,084.05 2,104.33 448.14 Change NWC 399.74 138.54 71.68 264.51 (42.40) CAPEX 372.09 384.96 408.92 423.01 431.45 FCF Discount years FCFF PV 3,685.77 1,253.16 2,432.61 482.11 1,060.83 1,390.80 1,697.08 1,864.95 2,525.66 1 2 3 4 5 971.45 1166.32 1303.26 1311.50 1626.50 Thereafter Future Obligations Operating Leases Endorsement Contract Product Purchase Obl Other Total 312.4 700.4 2272 250.7 3535.5 264.4 599.3 1.9 76.4 942 228.9 518.3 0 62.2 809.4 Page 28 192.1 480.3 0 55.1 727.5 163.9 407.2 0 50.7 621.8 692.3 1122 0 1.2 1815.5 Nike Analysis Report Nike’s projected future cash flows are discounted to their present values using the calculated WACC. It is also important to look at the future obligations of the company and their present value as well. Nike’s future obligations concerning operating leases as well as their endorsement contracts with athletes are combined with all other future obligations and are then discounted back to their present value. This was done in order to show the company’s level of future commitments in order to better inform the reader about what can be expected in Nike’s future. Revenue Growth 16% 14% 12% Growth Profile 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E Nike’s base case revenue projections based on our analysis are shown graphically as compared to their past revenue growth in order to visually display the conservative growth prospects that are used in order to value the company. WACC Terminal Growth Rate Terminal Value PV of TV 9.20% 3.0% 41,955.63 27,018.94 EV Total Debt 33,397.97 441.00 FCFE Shares Outstanding 32,956.97 495.6 Implied Share Price Current Share Price Implied ROI $ $ 66.50 43.43 53.12% This figure displays the summation of all of the future cash flows as well as the horizon or terminal cash flow. These cash flows are all displayed at their present values according to the WACC. The level of debt is subtracted out in order to arrive at the total value of the firm which is then divided by numbers of shares outstanding in order to arrive at the intrinsic or implied value per share. This value is then compared to the Page 29 Nike Analysis Report current price per share in order to ascertain the level of return to be expected, with the assumed projections, from Nike’s stock. Cash Flow Valuation (Scenario analysis­Worst Case) Growth Profile 20% 15% WACC Terminal Growth Rate Terminal Value PV of TV 9.20% 3.0% 28,328.04 18,242.94 EV Total Debt 23,930.03 441.00 10% 5% 0% -5% 2004 2005 2006 2007 20082009E2010E2011E2012E2013E FCFE -15% -20% 23,489.03 495.6 Shares Outstanding -10% Implied Share Price Current Share Price Implied ROI Growth Profile -25% $ $ 47.40 43.43 9.13% The worst case scenario that our analyst team felt could be legitimately applied to Nike’s growth forecast is displayed on the left and the results of the DCF model are displayed on the right. Over the next 3 years the growth rates that were applied (overall top line) are -20%, -10%, and -5% with growth rising to 0% in the fourth year and continuing to 3% into perpetuity. These growth rates are extremely conservative and were used to show what the implied value per share would be assuming these very low rates. Our analyst team does not think that it is even feasible that Nike will come anywhere close to these projected growth levels however we included this to show a worst-case scenario. As well, even assuming the worst case scenario the stock is still undervalued with an intrinsic price of 47.40 USD. Summary & Conclusions Our analyst team feels that Nike is an extremely strong and well positioned company that is being unfairly undervalued because of the weakening global economy. We have analyzed nearly every facet of Nike’s business and feel that the company is very well managed with efficient operating procedures as well as having one of the most recognizable brands on the planet and a loyal and ever-growing customer base. Nike’s stock is a buy according to our analysis and should yield the purchaser outstanding yields both through dividends and equity appreciation. (Note: Please see Investment Thesis for specific growth drivers and associated risks) Page 30 1,855.8 Revenue Other Revenue Total Revenue Cost Of Goods Sold Gross Profit Selling General & Admin Exp. R & D Exp. Depreciation & Amort. Other Operating Expense/(Income) Other Operating Exp., Total Operating Income Interest Expense Interest and Invest. Income Net Interest Exp. Other Non-Operating Inc. (Exp.) EBT Excl. Unusual Items Impairment of Goodwill Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Assets Other Unusual Items EBT Incl. Unusual Items Income Tax Expense Earnings from Cont. Ops. Earnings of Discontinued Ops. Extraord. Item & Account. Change Net Income Pref. Dividends and Other Adj. NI to Common Incl Extra Items For the Fiscal Period Ending LTM 12 months Nov-30-2008 19,654.7 19,654.7 10,663.3 8,991.4 6,492.7 6,492.7 2,498.7 44.5 44.5 (52.0) 2,491.2 60.6 2,551.8 696.0 1,855.8 1,855.8 - Income Statement Page 31 1,883.4 12 months May-31-2008 18,627.0 18,627.0 10,239.6 8,387.4 5,953.7 5,953.7 2,433.7 77.1 77.1 (68.5) 2,442.3 60.6 2,502.9 619.5 1,883.4 1,883.4 1,491.5 12 months May-31-2007 16,325.9 16,325.9 9,165.4 7,160.5 5,028.7 5,028.7 2,131.8 67.2 67.2 (28.0) 2,171.0 14.7 14.2 2,199.9 708.4 1,491.5 1,491.5 1,392.0 12 months May-31-2006 14,954.9 14,954.9 8,367.9 6,587.0 4,477.8 4,477.8 2,109.2 36.8 36.8 (4.4) 2,141.6 2,141.6 749.6 1,392.0 1,392.0 1,211.6 12 months May-31-2005 13,739.7 13,739.7 7,624.3 6,115.4 4,221.7 4,221.7 1,893.7 (4.8) (4.8) (29.1) 1,859.8 1,859.8 648.2 1,211.6 1,211.6 - 945.6 12 months May-31-2004 12,253.1 12,253.1 7,001.4 5,251.7 3,702.0 3,702.0 1,549.7 (25.0) (25.0) (74.7) 1,450.0 1,450.0 504.4 945.6 945.6 - Nike Analysis Report Appendix Historical Financials Source: Nike Inc. 10-K Report 20081 Currency ASSETS Cash And Equivalents Short Term Investments Total Cash & ST Investments Accounts Receivable Total Receivables Inventory Prepaid Exp. Deferred Tax Assets, Curr. Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Gross Property, Plant & Equipment Accumulated Depreciation Net Property, Plant & Equipment Goodwill Other Intangibles Deferred Tax Assets, LT Other Long-Term Assets Total Assets Balance Sheet Balance Sheet as of: May-31-2008 USD 2,133.9 642.2 2,776.1 2,795.3 2,795.3 2,438.4 266.7 227.2 335.6 8,839.3 4,103.0 (2,211.9) 1,891.1 448.8 743.1 520.4 12,442.7 Nov-30-2008 USD 1,721.5 1,008.0 2,729.5 2,737.2 2,737.2 2,419.1 947.9 89.7 8,923.4 4,109.4 (2,208.5) 1,900.9 376.8 650.2 783.4 12,634.7 1,856.7 990.3 2,847.0 2,494.7 2,494.7 2,121.9 253.0 219.7 140.2 8,076.5 3,619.1 (1,940.8) 1,678.3 130.8 409.9 392.8 10,688.3 May-31-2007 USD 954.2 1,348.8 2,303.0 2,382.9 2,382.9 2,076.7 177.1 203.3 203.0 7,346.0 3,408.3 (1,750.6) 1,657.7 130.8 405.5 300.4 29.2 9,869.6 Reclassified May-31-2006 USD 1,388.1 436.6 1,824.7 2,262.1 2,262.1 1,811.1 343.0 110.2 6,351.1 3,179.2 (1,573.4) 1,605.8 135.4 406.1 295.2 8,793.6 May-31-2005 USD 828.0 400.8 1,228.8 2,120.2 2,120.2 1,650.2 364.4 165.0 5,528.6 3,183.4 (1,571.6) 1,611.8 135.4 366.3 266.6 7,908.7 Restated May-31-2004 USD Nike Analysis Report Page 32 Page 33 1,287.6 1,475.7 177.7 6.3 88.0 286.2 3,321.5 441.1 854.5 4,617.1 0.3 0.3 2.8 2,497.8 5,073.3 251.4 7,825.3 7,825.6 1,124.1 941.2 316.0 32.4 117.4 558.5 3,089.6 445.5 983.1 4,518.2 0.3 0.3 2.8 2,751.9 5,108.7 252.8 8,116.2 8,116.5 12,634.7 Currency LIABILITIES Accounts Payable Accrued Exp. Short-term Borrowings Curr. Port. of LT Debt Curr. Income Taxes Payable Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Long-Term Debt Def. Tax Liability, Non-Curr. Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Liabilities Pref. Stock, Redeemable Total Pref. Equity Common Stock Additional Paid In Capital Retained Earnings Treasury Stock Comprehensive Inc. and Other Total Common Equity Total Equity Total Liabilities And Equity 12,442.7 May-31-2008 USD Nov-30-2008 USD Balance Sheet Balance Sheet as of: 10,688.3 1,040.3 1,120.0 100.8 30.5 109.0 183.4 2,584.0 409.9 668.7 3,662.6 0.3 0.3 2.8 1,960.0 4,885.2 177.4 7,025.4 7,025.7 May-31-2007 USD 9,869.6 952.2 1,033.4 43.4 255.3 85.5 242.6 2,612.4 410.7 561.0 3,584.1 0.3 0.3 2.8 1,447.3 4,713.4 121.7 6,285.2 6,285.5 Reclassified May-31-2006 USD 8,793.6 775.0 926.1 69.8 6.2 95.0 127.1 1,999.2 687.3 462.6 3,149.1 0.3 0.3 2.8 1,182.9 4,396.5 62.0 5,644.2 5,644.5 May-31-2005 USD 7,908.7 780.4 785.4 146.0 6.6 118.2 193.9 2,030.5 682.4 413.8 3,126.7 0.3 0.3 2.8 887.8 3,982.9 (91.8) 4,781.7 4,782.0 Restated May-31-2004 USD Nike Analysis Report Nike Analysis Report Cash Flow For the Fiscal Period Ending Net Income Depreciation & Amort. Amort. of Goodwill and Intangibles Depreciation & Amort., Total (Gain) Loss From Sale Of Assets Stock-Based Compensation Tax Benefit from Stock Options Other Operating Activities Change in Acc. Receivable Change In Inventories Change in Acc. Payable Change in Other Net Operating Assets Cash from Ops. Capital Expenditure Sale of Property, Plant, and Equipment Cash Acquisitions Divestitures Invest. in Marketable & Equity Securt. Net (Inc.) Dec. in Loans Originated/Sold Other Investing Activities Cash from Investing Short Term Debt Issued Long-Term Debt Issued Total Debt Issued Short Term Debt Repaid Long-Term Debt Repaid Total Debt Repaid Issuance of Common Stock Repurchase of Common Stock Common Dividends Paid Common and/or Pref. Dividends Paid Total Dividends Paid Special Dividend Paid Other Financing Activities Cash from Financing Foreign Exchange Rate Adj. Net Change in Cash LTM 12 months Nov-30-2008 1,855.8 321.6 8.7 330.3 (60.6) 154.0 (222.6) (277.4) (347.9) 98.4 94.7 1,624.7 (472.2) 15.5 (571.1) 246.0 (384.2) 147.7 (1,018.3) 210.1 (10.6) 271.3 (1,290.4) (39.5) (412.9) (452.4) 55.2 (1,216.8) (138.6) (749.0) 12 months May-31-2008 1,883.4 303.6 9.2 312.8 (60.6) 141.0 (291.9) (118.3) (249.8) 330.9 (11.2) 1,936.3 (449.2) 1.9 (571.1) 246.0 380.4 (21.8) (413.8) 63.7 63.7 (35.2) (35.2) 343.3 (1,248.0) (412.9) (412.9) 63.0 (1,226.1) (19.2) 277.2 Page 34 12 months May-31-2007 1,491.5 269.7 9.9 279.6 147.7 24.7 (39.6) (49.5) 85.1 (60.8) 1,878.7 (313.5) 28.3 382.4 (4.3) 92.9 94.4 94.4 (255.7) (255.7) 322.9 (985.2) (343.7) (343.7) 55.8 (1,111.5) 42.4 902.5 12 months May-31-2006 1,392.0 282.0 9.8 291.8 11.8 54.2 (38.7) (85.1) (200.3) 279.4 (37.2) 1,667.9 (333.7) 1.6 (909.9) (34.6) (1,276.6) (24.2) (24.2) 225.3 (761.1) (290.9) (290.9) (850.9) 25.7 (433.9) 12 months May-31-2005 1,211.6 257.2 9.3 266.5 4.9 63.1 37.6 (93.5) (103.3) 112.4 71.4 1,570.7 (257.1) 7.2 (47.2) (35.3) (28.0) (360.4) (90.9) (90.9) 226.8 (556.2) (236.7) (236.7) (657.0) 6.8 560.1 Restated 12 months May-31-2004 945.6 255.2 58.3 313.5 47.2 19.0 97.1 (55.9) 255.6 (103.6) 1,518.5 (214.8) 11.6 (289.1) (400.8) (57.5) (950.6) 153.8 153.8 (206.9) (206.9) 253.6 (419.8) (179.2) (179.2) (398.5) 24.6 194.0 Nike Analysis Report Projected Financials & Valuation Revenue Other Revenue Total Revenue Cost Of Goods Sold % of REVENUE Gross Profit Selling General & Admin Exp. % of REVENUE 2010E Projections 2011E 2012E 2013E 18,690.96 18,690.96 19,339.24 19,339.24 20,545.98 20,545.98 21,255.86 21,255.86 21,680.98 21,680.98 10,653.85 11,023.36 11,711.21 11,903.28 11,924.54 57% 57% 57% 56% 55% 8,037.11 8,315.87 8,834.77 9,352.58 9,756.44 5,441.87 5,612.53 5,748.96 5,716.06 5,588.57 31% 31% 30% 29% 28% 352.33 382.64 414.83 448.14 482.11 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% - - - - - 5,794.20 2,242.92 5,995.16 2,320.71 6,163.80 2,670.98 6,164.20 3,188.38 6,070.67 3,685.77 18.31 36.80 18.49 16.94 36.80 19.86 16.94 36.80 19.86 12.66 36.80 24.14 9.64 36.80 27.16 Currency Exchange Gains (Loss) Other Non-Operating Inc. (Exp.) EBT Excl. Unusual Items 2,261.41 2,340.57 2,690.84 3,212.52 3,712.93 Impairment of Goodwill Gain (Loss) On Sale Of Assets Other Unusual Items EBT Incl. Unusual Items 2,261.41 2,340.57 2,690.84 3,212.52 3,712.93 775.06 802.20 922.24 R & D Exp. Depreciation & Amort. % of PPE Other Operating Expense/(Income) Other Operating Exp., Total Operating Income Interest Expense Interest and Invest. Income Net Interest Exp. Income Tax Expense % of EBT 1,101.04 1,272.55 34% 34% 34% 34% 34% 1,486.34 1,538.37 1,768.59 2,111.48 2,440.38 1,486.34 1,538.37 1,768.59 2,111.48 2,440.38 - - - - - 1,486.34 1,486.34 1,538.37 1,538.37 1,768.59 1,768.59 2,111.48 2,111.48 2,440.38 2,440.38 Per Share Items Basic EPS Basic EPS Excl. Extra Items Weighted Avg. Basic Shares Out. 3.00 3.00 495.60 3.10 3.10 495.60 3.57 3.57 495.60 4.26 4.26 495.60 4.92 4.92 495.60 Diluted EPS Diluted EPS Excl. Extra Items Weighted Avg. Diluted Shares Out. 2.95 2.95 504.10 3.05 3.05 504.10 3.51 3.51 504.10 4.19 4.19 504.10 4.84 4.84 504.10 1.00 0.24 0.74 0.24 0.86 0.24 1.02 0.24 1.18 0.24 Earnings from Cont. Ops. Earnings of Discontinued Ops. Extraord. Item & Account. Change Net Income Pref. Dividends and Other Adj. NI to Common Incl Extra Items NI to Common Excl. Extra Items Dividends per Share Payout Ratio % 2009E Page 35 Nike Analysis Report Balance Sheet (In Millions) ASSETS Cash And Equivalents Short Term Investments % of CASH Projections 2010E 2011E 2,133.90 2,133.90 812.33 812.33 2012E 2,133.90 812.33 2013E 2,133.90 812.33 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% Marketable Securities Total Cash & ST Investments 802.50 3,748.72 2,132.08 5,078.30 3,651.05 6,597.28 5,474.81 8,421.04 7,871.60 10,817.82 Accounts Receivable 2,990.55 3,094.3 3,287.36 3,400.94 3,468.96 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 2,990.55 3,094.28 3,287.36 3,400.94 3,468.96 2,915.37 % of REVENUE Total Receivables Inventory 2,513.32 2,600.49 2,762.75 2,858.21 % of REVENUE 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% Prepaid Exp. 398.65 412.48 438.22 445.41 446.20 % of COGS Deferred Tax Assets, Curr. 4% 4% 224.29 232.07 4% 267.10 4% 318.84 % of EBIT 10% 10% 10% 10% Other Current Assets Total Current Assets - - - - 4% 368.58 10% - 9,875.54 11,417.62 13,352.70 15,444.43 18,016.93 Gross Property, Plant & Equipment Accumulated Depreciation Net Property, Plant & Equipment 4,475.09 (2,564.23) 1,910.86 4,860.05 (2,946.87) 1,913.18 5,268.97 (3,361.70) 1,907.27 5,691.99 (3,809.84) 1,882.15 6,123.44 (4,291.94) 1,831.50 Goodwill Other Intangibles Deferred Tax Assets, LT Other Long-Term Assets Total Assets 448.80 743.10 334.13 13,312.43 448.80 743.10 334.13 14,856.84 448.80 743.10 334.13 16,786.01 448.80 743.10 334.13 18,852.61 448.80 743.10 334.13 21,374.46 1,336.11 LIABILITIES Accounts Payable 1,151.84 1,191.80 1,266.16 1,309.91 % of REVENUE 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% Accrued Exp. 1,300.02 1,345.11 1,429.04 1,452.48 1,455.08 % of COGS Short-term Borrowings Other ST Debt Curr. Port. of LT Debt Curr. Income Taxes Payable % of Income Tax Other Current Liabilities % of REVENUE Total Current Liabilities Long-Term Debt Def. Tax Liability, Non-Curr. YOY Growth % Other Non-Current Liabilities Total Liabilities Pref. Stock, Redeemable Total Pref. Equity Common Stock Additional Paid In Capital Retained Earnings Treasury Stock Comprehensive Inc. and Other Total Common Equity Total Equity Total Liabilities And Equity 2009E 2,133.90 812.33 12% 12% 12% 12% 12% 102.18 31.30 146.22 102.18 6.30 151.34 102.18 153.40 173.99 102.18 46.30 207.72 102.18 197.50 240.08 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 253.81 262.61 279.00 288.64 294.41 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2,985.38 3,059.34 3,403.78 3,407.23 3,625.35 416.10 1,094.61 409.80 1,402.19 256.40 1,796.20 210.10 2,300.92 12.60 2,947.46 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 4,496.09 4,871.33 5,456.37 5,918.25 6,585.41 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 2.80 2,497.80 6,064.04 2.80 2,497.80 7,233.21 2.80 2,497.80 8,577.34 2.80 2,497.80 10,182.06 2.80 2,497.80 12,036.75 251.40 8,816.04 251.40 9,985.21 251.40 11,329.34 251.40 12,934.06 251.40 14,788.75 8,816.34 9,985.51 11,329.64 12,934.36 14,789.05 13,312.43 14,856.84 16,786.01 18,852.61 21,374.46 Page 36 Nike Analysis Report Cash Flow Statement - In millions Net Income Depreciation & Amort. Amort. of Goodwill and Intangibles % of Depreciation Depreciation & Amort., Total (Gain) Loss From Sale Of Assets 2009E 2010E Projections 2011E 2012E 2013E 1,486.34 1,538.37 1,768.59 2,111.48 2,440.38 352.33 382.64 414.83 448.14 482.11 12.15 13.19 14.30 15.45 16.62 3% 364.48 3% 395.83 3% 429.14 3% 463.59 3% 498.73 - - - - - 141.00 141.00 141.00 141.00 141.00 Tax Benefit from Stock Options - - - - - Other Operating Activities - - - - - Stock-Based Compensation Change in Acc. Receivable 195.25 103.72 193.08 113.58 68.02 Change In Inventories (74.92) (87.17) (162.27) (95.46) (57.16) (135.76) 39.95 74.37 43.75 26.20 - - - - - Cash from Ops. 1,976.40 2,131.71 2,443.91 2,777.94 3,117.16 Capital Expenditure (372.09) (384.96) (408.92) (423.01) (431.45) 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% - - - - - Cash Acquisitions - - - - - Divestitures - - - - - 380.40 380.40 380.40 380.40 380.40 - - - - - Other Investing Activities (31.78) (31.78) (31.78) (31.78) (31.78) Cash from Investing (23.45) (36.32) (60.28) (74.38) (82.82) Short Term Debt Issued - - - - - Long-Term Debt Issued - - - - - Total Debt Issued - - - - - Change in Acc. Payable Change in Other Net Operating Assets % or REVENUE Sale of Property, Plant, and Equipment Invest. in Marketable & Equity Securt. Net (Inc.) Dec. in Loans Originated/Sold Short Term Debt Repaid - - - - - Long-Term Debt Repaid (31.30) (6.30) (153.40) (46.30) (197.50) Total Debt Repaid (31.30) (6.30) (153.40) (46.30) (197.50) Issuance of Common Stock Repurchase of Common Stock 236.02 236.02 236.02 236.02 236.02 (500.00) (400.00) - - - Common Dividends Paid Common and/or Pref. Dividends Paid (495.60) (369.21) (424.46) (506.75) (585.69) Total Dividends Paid (495.60) (369.21) (424.46) (506.75) (585.69) Special Dividend Paid - - - - - Other Financing Activities - - - - - (790.88) (375.51) (577.86) (553.05) (783.19) Cash from Financing Foreign Exchange Rate Adj. Net Change in Cash - - - - - 802.50 2,132.08 3,651.05 5,474.81 7,871.60 Page 37 Nike Analysis Report Revenue Breakdown - In millions United States of America Footwear 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E Projections 2011E 2012E 2013E 3019.5 3070.4 3358.2 3832.2 4067.2 4326.8 4110.5 4110.5 4316.0 4445.5 4534.4 2% 9% 14% 6% 6% -5% 0% 5% 3% 2% 1351 1433.5 1457.7 1591.6 1716.1 1745.1 1657.8 1657.8 1707.6 1758.8 1794.0 6% 2% 9% 8% 2% -5% 0% 3% 3% 2% 287.9 277.9 313.4 298.7 323.8 306.1 281.6 270.3 270.3 278.5 284.0 -3% 13% -5% 8% -5% -8% -4% 0% 3% 2% 4,658.4 4,781.8 5,129.3 5,722.5 6,107.1 6,378.0 6,049.9 6,038.7 6,293.9 6,482.7 6,612.4 3% 7% 12% 7% 4% -5% 0% 4% 3% 2% 2232.2 2500 2454.3 2608 3112.6 3174.9 3333.6 3566.9 3674.0 3747.4 18% 12% -2% 6% 19% 2% 5% 7% 3% 2% 1133.1 1333.8 1497.1 1559 1757.2 2083.5 2125.2 2231.4 2387.6 2459.3 2508.4 18% 12% 4% 13% 19% 2% 5% 7% 3% 2% 212.6 261.7 284.5 313.3 358.1 424.3 424.3 454.0 485.8 500.4 510.4 23% 9% 10% 14% 18% 0% 7% 7% 3% 2% 3,241.7 3,827.7 4,281.6 4,326.6 4,723.3 5,620.4 5,724.3 6,019.0 6,440.4 6,633.6 6,766.2 18% 12% 1% 9% 19% 2% 5% 7% 3% 2% 855.3 962.9 1044.1 1159.2 1499.5 1559.5 1637.5 1752.1 1804.6 1840.7 17% 13% 8% 11% 29% 4% 5% 7% 3% 2% 499.3 612.3 755.5 815.6 909.3 1,140.0 1185.6 1244.9 1332.0 1372.0 1399.4 23% 23% 8% 11% 25% 4% 5% 7% 3% 2% 127.1 143.2 178.9 194.1 214.9 242.2 242.2 247.0 256.9 264.6 269.9 13% 25% 8% 11% 13% 0% 2% 4% 3% 2% 1,358.8 1,610.8 1,897.3 2,053.8 2,283.4 2,881.7 2,987.3 3,129.4 3,341.0 3,441.3 3,510.1 19% 18% 8% 11% 26% 4% 5% 7% 3% 2% 408.2 478.6 635.3 679.6 792.7 832.3 874.0 935.1 963.2 982.4 21% 17% 33% 7% 17% 5% 5% 7% 3% 2% 148.1 159.5 169.1 201.8 193.9 265.4 278.7 292.6 313.1 322.5 328.9 8% 6% 19% -4% 37% 5% 5% 7% 3% 2% 41.6 36.8 48.1 67.8 79 96 96.0 99.8 105.8 109.0 111.2 -12% 31% 41% 17% 22% 0% 4% 6% 3% 2% 527.0 604.5 695.8 904.9 952.5 1,154.1 1,207.0 1,266.4 1,354.0 1,394.7 1,422.6 15% 15% 30% 5% 21% 5% 5% 7% 3% 2% 1,428.3 1,735.7 1,947.1 2,259.6 2,592.8 2722.4 2885.8 3116.6 3303.6 3369.7 44% 22% 12% 16% 15% 5% 6% 8% 6% 2% 12,253.1 13,739.7 14,954.9 16,325.9 18,627.0 18,691.0 19,339.2 20,546.0 21,255.9 21,681.0 14% 12% 9% 9% 14% 4% 5% 6% 3% 2% YOY Growth % Apparel YOY Growth % Equiptment YOY Growth % Total Revenue USA YOY Growth % Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA) Footwear 1896 YOY Growth % Apparel YOY Growth % Equiptment YOY Growth % Total Revenue EMEA YOY Growth % Asia/Pacific Footwear 732.4 YOY Growth % Apparel YOY Growth % Equiptment YOY Growth % Total Revenue Asia YOY Growth % Americas Footwear 337.3 YOY Growth % Apparel YOY Growth % Equiptment YOY Growth % Total Revenue Americas YOY Growth % Other 991.1 YOY Growth % Total Revenues YOY Growth % 10,777.0 Page 38 Nike Analysis Report Bibliography: All Sources and Citations Direct (In-Text) Citations: 1[ Charts, in text citations and miscellaneous information] via Nike Inc. 10K 2[Charts, historical cost of capital information, analyst forecasts, and other financial information], via Bloomberg Terminal, accessed [March 2009]. 3[Charts, market share data, historical figures, stock price performance, and other financial data], CapitalIQ, Inc., a division of Standard & Poor’s. 4[Chart] http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Nike_(NKE) Page 39