SORTING, FRANCHISING AND REAL ESTATE BROKERAGE FIRMS John D. Benjamin Kogod School of Business, American University 4400 Massachusetts Ave., NW Washington, DC 20016 (202) 885-1892 jbenj@american.edu Peter Chinloy Kogod School of Business, American University 4400 Massachusetts Ave., NW Washington, DC 20016 (202) 885-1951 chinloy@american.edu Daniel T. Winkler Bryan School of Business and Economics University of North Carolina at Greensboro Greensboro, NC 27412-5001 (336) 334-3094 dt_winkler@uncg.edu We are grateful to Paul Bishop, Anton Haidorfer, Ellen Roche, and Marion Steele for their helpful comments and discussions. The data set and survey information was provided by the National Association of Realtors. SORTING, FRANCHISING AND REAL ESTATE BROKERAGE FIRMS Abstract A franchise serves as one mechanism for sorting real estate residential brokerage firms. Each firm evaluates the inputs of marketing and systems provided by franchisors. If the firm is more profitable by accepting a franchise, then that structure is selected. In a sample of 1,143 United States residential brokerage firms, large size is associated with franchising. However, the benefits vary regionally. Local, non-franchised firms are able to hold their own in the Northeast generally a slower-growing areas. Franchises have a larger contribution to net margins in the faster-growing South and West. Keywords: Franchise, Brokerage, Residential Real Estate, Profit Margin 2 SORTING, FRANCHISING AND REAL ESTATE BROKERAGE FIRMS 1. Introduction This paper develops a model where a franchise serves as one mechanism for sorting by size and scale within real estate residential brokerage firms.1 If a franchisor’s inputs such as national marketing are complementary with size, then larger firms tend to become franchisees. The empirical analysis is divided by region. This allocation allows for testing whether franchising is more prevalent in faster-growing markets. There has been related research on franchising by real estate brokerage firms, although there is less emphasis on sorting theories of the firm. Having a franchise pays off on a gross revenue basis and supports positive royalty fees. Jud, Rogers, and Crellin (1994) show a 9% increase in revenue for real estate brokerage firms with franchise affiliation.2 Richins, Black, and Sirmans (1987) and Frew and Jud (1986) also support the idea that franchise affiliation increases revenues. Regarding cost and technology, Anderson, Lewis, and Zumpano (2000) demonstrate that franchised firms are more efficient than their non-franchised counterparts, but franchises may not be more profitable.3 Lewis and Anderson (1999) show that franchised brokerage firms have lower costs than non-franchised firms, but the average brokerage firm operates close to its efficient frontier. Franchised firms are found to be more efficient in allocating resources by Anderson and Fok (1998), but non-franchised firms have more scale and technical efficiency. This paper is complementary, examining franchising as a selective process. Variables such as size are tested for the decision on whether to acquire a franchise. Firm net margin, or net operating income divided by revenue, reflects the self-selection decision of holding a franchise. If the franchise decision depends on size and scale, that decision would be accounted for in the net margin. There is no requirement that this selection structure be identical across regions, allowing for comparisons across markets. 1 In franchising, the franchisor or parent firm offers inputs such as common marketing, technology, and training in exchange for an upfront fee and royalty payments (typically a percentage of revenue). There are over one million Realtors® according to the National Association of Realtors® (see www.realtors.org) and approximately one-third are employed with franchised brokerage firms. The International Franchise Association (www.franchise.org) estimates that in 2000, franchisors and their franchisees had volume of $1 trillion, more than 40 percent of all U.S. retail sales. These sales originated from over 300,000 franchised businesses in 75 industries. Franchising is estimated to employ more than 8 million people. 2 The estimates of Jud, Rogers, and Crellin (1994) are after subtracting royalties, fees, and other charges associated with franchise affiliation. The role of brokerage firms in helping to set listing prices in a competitive marketplace has been examined by Sirmans and Turnbull (1997) and Knight, Sirmans, and Turnbull (1994). 3 Zumpano, Elder, and Anderson (2000) note that greater firm costs may have led to increased consolidation among brokerage firms to take advantage of economies of scale. Consolidation has encouraged even more franchising as franchising allows brokerage firms to substitute variable costs for fixed costs so as to reduce break-even output levels. 3 The franchisor offers a set of inputs not directly available to non-members or nonaffiliates. These inputs include common marketing, affiliation programs, branding, training and technology such as databases and software. The franchisees specialize in inputs in their specific markets, such as local labor and facilities and clientele networks. If the franchisor-provided inputs are complementary with the local inputs, then there is a benefit from retaining a franchise. Franchisors have incentives to seek out those inputs that are complementary with their franchisees. On the demand side, prospective franchisees evaluate net profits and returns from being in a franchise or remaining independent. Comparing the two involves a selection decision. Those accepting a franchise have a higher expected return even when subtracting the royalties and fees from the value of franchisor-provided inputs. On the supply side, the franchisor will accept the firm offering the highest expected profit or royalty revenue less costs of franchisor-provided inputs. The equilibrium sorts the type of firm by ability and equates demand with supply. There are resulting profit or performance conditions for franchise and non-franchise firms. The return to having a franchise is the difference between the expected return with having a franchise and with not having one, controlling for self-selection. This test is possible because real estate residential brokerage firms enter and exit franchising, and because franchise and nonfranchise firms coexist. That flexibility is not possible in industries such as new car sales where there is no coexistence or hotels where much of the franchise requirement is unobservable capital investment. To test for firm sorting, residential brokerage firm data are used from a National Association of Realtors survey of 1,143 member firms in 2001. In the sample, 313 firms are franchisees and the remaining 830 are non-franchisees. The results show that there is sorting by franchise selection. The probability of holding and being accepted for a franchise is increasing at each level of firm size and with measures of technological investment. At each size grade, larger firms tend to be franchisees. Once self-selected, both franchised and non-franchised firms’ net margins increase in technology investment and decline with age. Even though National Association of Realtors data do not contain complete firm cost information, the net margin or revenues less expenses data take costs into account. Larger firms earn a return from holding a franchise. However, the higher return does not obtain in all regions. The self-selection return to holding a franchise is positive in high-growth areas for the South and West. In the slower-growing Northeast and the Midwest, holding a franchise has a low or zero added return. 2. Franchising and Real Estate Firms Franchises for residential real estate brokerage firms impose limited and uniform initial capital requirements and have similar royalty fees. Real estate franchisors do not operate 4 company-owned stores, as in the fast-food business. Moreover, unlike in the new car business protected by state regulatory barriers, franchisees and non-franchisees coexist. For illustrative purposes, Table 1 compares the costs of acquisition for three of the most widely-held real estate brokerage franchises, Century 21, ERA, and Coldwell Banker, with popular restaurant franchises.4 The Subway restaurant franchise is generally considered to be one with relatively low acquisition and entry costs. Table 1. Comparative Costs for Franchises, Inside and Outside Real Estate Century 21 ERA Coldwell Subway McDonalds Banker Total $11-522 $43-206 $23-477 $86-213 $506-1,600 Investment ($’000) Franchise To $25 To $20 $13-20 To $12.5 $45 Fee ($’000) Royalty on 6% 6% 6% 8% 12.5% Sales Term of 10 10 10 20 NA Franchise in Years Personal Net $25 $25 $25 $30-90 $750 Worth ($’000) Source: Entrepreneur Magazine and various franchisor websites Dunkin Donuts $2551,100 $40-80 5.9% NA $600 Barriers to entry for real estate brokerage franchises are lower as compared with restaurant franchises. For the three real estate firms, the royalty fee is 6% of sales but generally lower than the royalty fees at the restaurant chains. The terms of the franchise agreement are also shorter at real estate brokerage firms and personal net worth requirements are lower. For example, with a $25,000 personal net worth requirement, a 10-year term for the agreement, and a franchise fee not exceeding $25,000 (and capital expenditures which can be financed by the franchisor) entry into the real estate brokerage industry is relatively affordable as compared to the restaurant industry. From Table 1, franchisor firms such as Century 21, ERA, and Coldwell Banker are not interested in size or scale. While single-person “mom-and-pop” entities may not qualify, the relatively low net worth and franchise fee indicate that in advance, franchisors are not selfselecting by size. Any subsequent observed distribution or sorting of firms by size is likely, to come from structural aspects of the industry. Franchisor-provided inputs involve economies of scale, such as common advertising to a mass or national market. Other franchisor inputs have similar economies of scale properties, including purchasing, training, capital access, and affinity programs as well as maintaining 4 An additional franchise is ReMax, which has costs and fees that are less homogeneous. ReMax operates with sales associates paying fixed costs for a desk fee and a chargeback on overhead and office expenses. In exchange, sales associates receive a larger percentage of the upside, essentially viewing the cost charged by ReMax as a call option on their earnings. 5 databases and making technology improvements. In exchange for the set of franchisor inputs, the franchisee pays a royalty on gross revenue. Most franchising arrangements also require an up-front payment as an initial fee. There has been extensive research on franchising and incentives. The incentives for boosting output motivate the franchise relationship (Martin (1988)), while competition for space and cannibalization within the geographic trade area drives down franchisee returns (Mazzeo (2002)).5 For a franchise model of the real estate brokerage firm, production occurs with directly purchased inputs x such as the payments to sales associates, office space, utilities. The technology includes shift variables a such as size, location, and age. The real estate firm has a choice between selecting a franchise or not. A franchisor offers inputs z including referral networks, national marketing, affiliate services, training and technology such as database services. For holding a franchise, the franchisee pays a fixed franchise fee and a royalty on total revenue at rate s .6 Franchises are available to all firms in the industry, and there is no prohibition against operating without one. If the brokerage firm decides to acquire a franchise, an indicator variable is I 1 , otherwise the decision is I 0 . The brokerage firm’s revenue without a franchise is r ( x, a) depending on the sales associate inputs and other purchased services and the fixed shift variables. The cost of directly purchased sales associate commission splits, support labor, and office overhead is c( x, a) , increasing and convex. If the firm obtains a franchise, the revenue is (1 s )r ( x, z , a) , including the franchisor marketing and other support z . The profit is revenue less cost or (1 s)r ( x, z , a) c( x, a) . The net margin y for a franchisee is the profit per dollar of net (1 s)r ( x, z, a) c( x, a) revenue, or . The firm’s net profit margin from becoming a member of a r ( x, z , a ) franchise network is (1) y ( x, z, a, I 1) (1 s) c ( x, a ) . r ( x, z , a ) The franchisee hires its sales associates and other direct purchases x . The franchisorprovided inputs z and its size as well as its scale a help the franchisee to generate revenue and profits. When the decision is not to have a franchise, the firm’s net profit margin is 5 Franchising contracts are methods of sharing and reallocating risk, as discussed in Gallini and Lutz (1992) and Lafontaine (1992). There have been other justifications for franchising. Prendergast (2002) views a franchise as a method for delegation when there is uncertainty in output. When there is more uncertainty, compensation is based on output. The franchise has been viewed as a mechanism similar to sharecropping, although there are enforcement issues should one party fail to comply (Lafontaine and Raynaud (2002)). 6 The franchisor may charge fixed costs or up-front fees. These franchise fees are a tradeoff for the royalty. In a model where these are both fees and the franchisee’s benefit is added revenue, at maximum profit there is a negative tradeoff between the royalty and the franchise fee. Using the notation of (1), if the franchise fee is k , differentiating totally at maximum profit r ( x, z , a )ds dk 0 , so dk r ( x, z , a ) 0 . ds 6 (2) y( x, z, a, I 0) 1 c( x, a) . r ( x, 0, a) Here the residential brokerage firm sets the level of franchise-provided inputs z at zero, in exchange for retaining all the gross commission revenue. No royalty fee s is paid. The firm chooses to hold a franchise when the profit exceeds that from being independent, or (3) y ( x, z , a, I 1) y ( x, z, a, I 0) c ( x, a ) c ( x, a ) . s r ( x, z , a ) r ( x, 0, a) The ratio of expenses to revenue for a franchise including all fees must be less than the expense ratio for a non-franchised firm. Regardless of size and given the franchise terms, the firm selects to be a franchise when the net profit is positive. The condition (3) establishes the demand for a franchise. It may be optimal for the firm not to hold a franchise, in which case the weak inequality in (3) is reversed. A firm of a given size, location, or scale a will choose a franchise when it provides an enhancement, leading to the condition (4) y ( x, z, a, I 1) y( x, z, a, I 0) . a a The above conditions apply to the demand side for franchises. There is a corresponding supply side from the franchisors. Franchisors, including firms across the quality spectrum of the market from Century 21 to Coldwell Banker to Sotheby’s, provide national marketing, training, affinity relationships, technology, and branding. It is offers inputs z in exchange for royalty s . A given franchisor will operate within the set of firms ranked by structure a 1,..., A that provides the highest profit return. The franchisor supplies the same inputs to all firms, and its cost function is c ( z ) . The profit condition is (5) F s max r ( xa , z, a, I 1) c( z) xa a 1,..., A . If franchisor-provided inputs z and its size and scale a help the franchisee to generate increased revenue, then the franchisor selects that brokerage firm which benefits the most from franchising. The equation (5) implies that the decision of an individual residential brokerage firm to acquire a franchise depends on its net profit margin after expenses. This selection on which firm acquires the franchise is (6) I * I * y( x(s, z, a), z, a, I 1) y( x,0, a, I 0) 7 where I * is an index of preference intensity. If the argument is positive, the firm selects a franchise. Conditional on the decision, the profit is y ( I 1) y ( x( s, z, a), z, a, I 1) (7) for franchised firms. In the contract ( z , s ) , the franchisor delivers marketing, training, affinity relationships, technology, and branding inputs z in exchange for a royalty s . The result is a two-stage selfselective process. In the first stage, conditional on firm fixed attributes such as size and location a , firms select or reject the franchise contract. In the second stage, conditional on the first stage self-selection, firms achieve their success through the profit margin. A testable hypothesis is whether size is one of the underlying characteristics that leads to franchise selection. The model allows for determining whether size itself leads to higher or lower profitability, or whether indirectly through selecting a franchise. With the self-selection on size, the model tests whether franchisor-provided inputs z are complementary with or substitutable for purchased labor, equipment, and real estate services. Empirical implementation requires the specification of the selection test (6) and profit (7) with parameters and a disturbance term. The decision can be structured on whether or not the firm decides to hold a franchise. If the firm decides not to obtain a franchise, then for a linear specification in variables W (8) I * y ( x( s, z, a), z, a, I 1) y ( x(0, 0, a), 0, a, I 0) W if I * 0 I 0 The parameters and disturbance . That decision is determined by whether their profit is higher with a franchise than without. Conditional on the decision to decline the franchise the net profit margin is (9) y y ( x( s, z, a), z, a, I 0) X . The disturbance is with variance and covariance with the decision of . The covariance matrix of the disturbances for the selection and profit margin is (10) 1 cov( , ) . The expected net return for firms not holding a franchise is (11) E y | I 0 X 1 f (W ) F (W ) 8 1 f (W ˆ ) . If the self-selection condition F (W ˆ ) is negative, remaining outside a franchise provides a net advantage to a firm. If the overall term is positive, then a having a franchise provides an increase in the net profit margin. Smaller firms with lower a have fewer economies of scale that would enable taking advantage of the franchisor’s inputs. The self-selection term for a franchise is ˆ The empirical objective is to test for the benefits of a franchise. Those benefits may vary not only by the size and structure of the firm, but also regionally. With some parts of a country growing faster than others, less-informed new residents may be attracted to a franchise by the assurance of uniform quality signaled by the franchised brand. 3. Data and Empirical Results The sample is from a survey conducted by the National Association of Realtors in March 2001, of residential brokerage firms in the United States on financial performance. If more than 50% of a respondent’s business was from commercial brokerage, it was removed in order to obtain a sample of real estate firms that focus primarily on residential real estate. The result is 1,143 eligible firms. Table 2 presents the descriptive statistics. For the sample, 26.51% or 313 of the firms are members of a franchise. The remaining 830 are not franchised. The firm’s profit is expressed as its net margin, which is the difference between revenues and expenses. For franchised firms, the revenues are net of the royalty and include the added potential revenue from the franchisorprovided inputs. The firms, both franchised and non-franchised are distributed across four regions of the country, the Northeast, Midwest, South and West. There are at least 60 firms in any one category by region and franchise status, providing sufficient degrees of freedom for estimating the self-selection. The first set of tests is (8), the decision to acquire a franchise. That equation is specified as probit, with I * y ( x( s, z, a), z, a, I 1) y( x, 0, a, I 0) W . The variable list in W includes firm size and technology, as demonstrated by the number of Internet websites. The results appear in Table 3. The dependent variable is whether the firm decides not to select a franchise. 9 Table 2. Residential Real Estate Brokerage Firm Sample Statistics (National Association of Realtors, U.S., 2001) Variable Net Margin Lnetmargin Reloc Age Oneoff Mfirm Lfirm West South Midwest Dedicated Weblist Email Numwebs Description Franchise = 0 Mean Sample size Net margin, percentage points Natural log, net margin =1 if member of a relocation network Length of time in business, in years =1 if firm has only one office Medium-sized firm, 11-200 salespersons Large firm, more than 200 salespersons =1 if West =1 if South =1 if Midwest =1 if firm has dedicated website =1 if firm posts listings on web =1 if sales staff accessible by e-mail Number of websites firm is found on 830 20.02 19.80 313 14.70 16.37 2.51 1.06 2.21 0.99 0.98 0.14 0.98 0.13 21.30 18.54 23.86 19.06 0.62 0.49 0.50 0.50 0.38 0.49 0.45 0.50 0.04 0.20 0.11 0.31 0.28 0.33 0.22 0.85 0.45 0.47 0.41 0.36 0.25 0.31 0.26 0.92 0.44 0.46 0.44 0.27 0.79 0.41 0.88 0.32 0.60 0.49 0.64 0.48 2.83 1.53 3.46 1.39 10 Franchise =0 Standard deviation Franchise =1 Mean Franchise = 1 Standard deviation Table 3. Franchise Selection Probit, Regions and National Variable Dependent Variable FRAN = 1 if franchise Independent Variables CONSTANT MFIRM Medium-Sized 11-200 salespersons LFIRM > 200 Salespersons NUMWEBS Number of websites listed on Ln L N Chi-squared Midwest Coefficient (z-statistic) Northeast Coefficient (z-statistic) South Coefficient (z-statistic) West Coefficient (z-statistic) National Coefficient (z-statistic) -0.95 (-4.77)** -0.17 (-0.94) -1.48 (-5.91)** 0.035 (0.16) -1.14 (-6.91)** 0.28 (1.82) -1.24 (-6.54)** 0.40 (2.39)** -1.15 (-12.00)** 0.15 (1.76) 0.30 (0.95) 0.16 (2.67)** 0.78 (1.65) 0.27 (3.80)** 0.59 (1.89) 0.11 (2.33)** 0.72 (2.39)** 0.11 (1.99)** 0.55 (3.30)** 0.15 (5.24)** -159.10 265 9.67** -104.70 194 20.06** -206.80 373 16.03** -167.90 311 16.67** -645.08 1143 51.81** ** significant at the 5% level The first test is for aggregation across regions. A Chow test statistic was performed on the sample selection regression, comparing the error sum of squares of the aggregated sample with the four regions. The F- test statistic of 35.55 exceeded the critical value at the 5% level. The finding indicates that the residential brokerage market probit and regression models should be conducted by region. For completeness, the national results for the United States are reported in the last column of Table 3. Larger firms are more likely to be organized as franchises, but the results differ around the country. In all regions, a large firm with more than 200 salespersons is more likely to be a member of a franchise. However, only in the West is the estimate significant at the 5% level, although in the South the estimate is significant at an 8% level. Similar results occur for medium-sized firms with 11-200 employees. Franchises are more likely to be tied to size in the West, and South. Conversely, while parameter estimates are positive, size does not significantly influence the decision to hold a franchise in the Midwest and the Northeast. Turning to the number of websites, a measure of scale, in all cases this variable is positively associated with being a member of a franchise. The national effects mask the differences in regional performance. At the national level, size at medium and large firms consistently leads to an increased probability of joining a 11 franchise, but that effect occurs because of dominance in the high-growth regions of the West and South. The conditional probability of not having a franchise for the non-franchised firms is 1 f (W ˆ ) . The overall effect is the product of this conditional probability and its coefficient, F (W ˆ ) an estimate ˆ of the covariance between the selection and the return to the non-franchisees. ˆ (1 f (W ˆ )) So is the overall effect. If this effect is negative, then not having a franchise F (W ˆ ) lowers the net profit margin for the non-franchised firms. The test for the productivity of a ˆ (1 f (W ˆ )) franchise is therefore 0 and this varies by region. F (W ˆ ) The net margin is gross revenues less all expenses including franchise and royalty fees, divided by gross revenues. This dependent variable is expressed in percentage points. The estimation uses weighted least squares to correct for sample heteroskedasticity. The weights used in this procedure are the sample weights from the survey, and they are designed to reflect the differential probability of firm and item non-response.7 Results for the non-franchised firms appear in Table 4. ˆ (1 f (W ˆ )) The total effect of the franchise on the net margin of a firm is at the F (W ˆ ) sample means reported in Table 4. In the Northeast, the franchise effect is not significant. Franchise and non-franchise firms are similar in performance. In the Midwest, South and West, not having a franchise reduces the profitability of the non-franchised firms. Correspondingly, franchised firms have higher profitability in these regions.8 The results suggest that the benefits of holding a franchise vary regionally. In fastergrowing markets a larger proportion of homebuyers are moving to the area. Those buyers are likely to be less familiar with the local market players, and must rely on national names such as those provided by a franchise. Conversely, in the slow-growing markets of the Northeast, the market is dominated by existing residents. Those residents are more familiar with local firms, reducing or eliminating the benefits of holding a franchise. 7 Historically, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) surveys of real estate brokerages had suffered from a biased response where smaller brokerages responded at a rate significantly higher than that of larger brokerages. To correct for this in their 2001 survey, NAR stratified the brokerage industry’s firms into four different groups. NAR then “over sampled” firms with 11 to 200 agents and those with more than 200 agents relative to firms with just one agent and those with 2 to 10 agents. These “larger” firms received the survey twice to induce a greater response. A weight was developed to control for both the over sampling of firms with 11 or more agents and for the different response rate for each of the four stratified groups. 8 To determine the true benefits of holding a franchise, the various costs of holding a franchise must be added to firm expenses. Net profit margin contains firm expenses including franchise costs. 12 Table 4. Net Margin, Non-Franchised Firms (parameter estimates, t-statistics in parentheses, sample means below) Variable Midwest Northeast South West Dependent MARGIN: Net margin Independent CONSTANT RELOCO = 1 if member of relocation network AGE, Length of time in business ONEOFF = 1 if one office 1 f (W ˆ ) F (W ˆ ) self-selection R2 N 51.69 (1.38) 54.95 (4.06)** 58.34 (1.44) 41.62 (1.50) 17.99 (0.67) 0.98 -0.45 (-1.92) 17.42 23.57 (2.49)** 0.81 92.84 ( 2.05)** -0.47 -45.99 (-3.88)** 0.98 0.32 (3.06)** 22.09 18.51 (3.31)** 0.87 -3.35 (-0.28) -0.36 -2.45 (-0.07) 1.00 -0.30 (-1.67) 14.95 4.19 (0.83) 0.68 67.67 (2.25)** -0.32 53.27 (2.92)** 0.94 -0.61 (-1.49) 10.54 -4.56 (-0.40) 0.81 121.33 (2.11)** -0.28 0.10 270 0.28 232 0.35 183 0.20 140 ** significant at the 5% level The impact from other variables supports the regional differences. Firms in the Northeast and Midwest with one office have higher profit margins, without being franchises. From the probit estimates, small firms have no disadvantages; and from the inverse Mills ratio, franchises themselves have limited positive effect. The results by age are supportive. 4. Summary and Concluding Remarks This data set allows the direct testing of hypotheses about franchising and firm profitability and size along with regional effects. First, the data allows for self-selection testing as to whether or not a residential brokerage firm adopts a franchise. Second, the sample allows for testing about whether the existing royalty structure provides for effective sorting between franchise and non-franchise brokerage firms. Locality affects the performance of real estate firms. Firms in slower-growing but dense areas such as the Northeast are able to substitute for a franchise and remain independent because the clientele is primarily local as opposed to being out of town. 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