Advanced Methods for Policy Analysis
PSC 8103
Spring 2014
Spring office hours: Weds. 1:00-2:00
and 5:00-6:00 or by appointment
Prof. Robert Stoker
Government 413
994-5831
stoker@gwu.edu
Overview
This course is an overview of the field of policy analysis designed for Ph.D. students in
Political Science, Public Policy, and Public Administration. Weimer and Vining define policy
analysis as “client-oriented advice relevant to public decisions and informed by social values.”
Policy analysts use reason and evidence to select the best policy from a number of alternatives or
to construct arguments to advance or oppose a particular course of action. The course focuses on
the role of policy analysts in a democratic society.
Policy analysis is a field of applied social science research that tries to assist or influence
policy makers by providing timely and relevant information about the consequences of policy
options. The course examines four alternate modes of policy analysis practice: policy analysis as
rational choice, as argument, as deliberation, and as problem-solving.
Policy analysis is a controversial field. Critics contend that policy analysts disguise their
ideology as science, that policy analysts are a conservative force in decisions, and that policy
analysts do not facilitate good public decision making. Beyond this, critics charge that policy
analysis contributes to a political system dominated by experts that challenges democracy. To
gain an understanding of the field, students will examine various approaches to analysis,
critically examine policy methodology, and consider the political context in which policy
research is conducted and used.
Course Requirements
Four written assignments are required to complete the course. You must complete an
issue brief. In 12 pages or less, write an issue brief on the Social Security financial crisis (the
brief is assigned on 1/29, due on 2/19, for 25% of the course grade). In addition, you must
complete a policy analysis applying Weimer and Vining’s framework to a problem you select
(your problem cannot be Social Security's financial crisis). Two written assignments are related
1
to this task. Compose a three page memo outlining your proposed problem and three alternatives
(the memo is assigned on 2/19 and is due on 2/26, for 10% of the course grade). Complete a 15
page policy analysis based on feedback you receive from your memo (the policy analysis is
assigned on 3/5 and is due on 4/16, for 40% of the course grade). Finally, you must construct a
policy argument; 10 page limit, 25% of course grade. Write a policy argument on Social Security
reform (assigned on 4/16 and due on 5/7 at noon). Page limits are double-spaced, typed with
standard margins and 12 point font. Printed versions of the assignments are required and should
be submitted at the beginning of class on the due dates. Late written work is penalized: Scores
for late work will be based on the lowest score attained for assignments that were submitted on
time.
Required Texts
Weimer and Vining, Policy Analysis: Concepts and Practice.
Robert Dahl, Democracy and Its Critics.
Schneider and Ingram, Policy Design for Democracy.
Xavier De Souza Briggs, Democracy as Problem Solving.
Learning Objectives

Students should understand the historical development of the field of policy analysis and its relationship to
social science.

Students should understand the role that facts and values play in policy decision-making and policy
analysis.

Students should gain a critical understanding of the rational choice framework for policy analysis and its
application to policy decision making.

Students should understand the pluralists' critique of rational choice policy analysis.

Students should understand the distinction between rational choice and incremental problem solving
methods.

Students should understand the distinction between argumentative and discursive policy analysis.

Students should understand the distinction between discursive policy analysis and problem solving.

Students should be able to critically compare and contrast rational choice, argumentative, discursive, and
problem-solving methods of public decision-making.

Students should understand the process of deliberate decision-making and how this compares with past
methods of citizen participation in government.
2
Course Outline and Reading Assignments
(1)
Introduction: The foundations of policy analysis. (1/15)
-
(2)
Harold Lasswell, “The Policy Orientation,” in Lasswell and Lerner (eds.), The Policy
Sciences: Recent Developments in Scope and Method. This reading is on the Blackboard.
The Social Security financial crisis. (1/22 and 1/29)
-
Read the following material from the Green Book for background on the Social Security
program (follow the hyperlinks below):

Overview of Social Security:
http://greenbook.waysandmeans.house.gov/sites/greenbook.waysandmeans.house.gov/files
/2012/documents/R42035_gb_0.pdf

Legislative history:
http://greenbook.waysandmeans.house.gov/sites/greenbook.waysandmeans.house.gov/files
/2012/documents/RL30920_gb_2.pdf

Disability benefits:
http://greenbook.waysandmeans.house.gov/sites/greenbook.waysandmeans.house.gov/files
/2012/documents/RL32279_gb.pdf

Trust funds:
http://greenbook.waysandmeans.house.gov/sites/greenbook.waysandmeans.house.gov/files
/2012/documents/RL33028_gb_0.pdf

COLA:
http://greenbook.waysandmeans.house.gov/sites/greenbook.waysandmeans.house.gov/files
/2012/documents/94-803_gb.pdf

Taxing Social Security benefits:
http://greenbook.waysandmeans.house.gov/sites/greenbook.waysandmeans.house.gov/files
/2012/documents/RL32552_gb.pdf
- Follow the hyperlink below to read the Social Security Trustees' Report:
http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/index.html
- Read the CBO report (follow the hyperlink):
http://www.cbo.gov/publication/44590
Issue brief: Issue brief assigned on 1/29, due on 2/19. Write an issue brief (12 pages or less) on the Social
Security financial crisis. To construct the brief, follow the guidelines explained in William Dunn,
Appendix 1, Public Policy Analysis, "The Policy Issue Paper," (on the Blackboard, 25% of course grade.)
In addition, you should develop a list of resources beyond the required class reading.
3
Additional resources can be found in a variety of policy-oriented research institutions, including, the Social
Security Administration (especially the Office of the Chief Actuary), the Congressional Budget Office, The
Brookings Institution, The Cato Institute, The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, the National
Academy for Social Insurance, the Heritage Foundation, the Urban Institute, and President Obama's bipartisan deficit reduction commission.
(3)
Rational choice: Prospective comparison of alternatives. (2/5, 2/12, and 2/19)
-
Read Weimer and Vining, Policy Analysis.
Examples of rational choice policy analysis:
o
Read Burger and Light, “Evaluating Options for U.S. Greenhouse-Gas Mitigation Using
Multiple Criteria.” Follow the hyperlink:
http://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/2009/RAND_OP252.pdf
o
Read this example from the Congressional Budget Office. Follow the hyperlink:
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43421DisabilityInsurance_print.pdf
o
Read this example from the Congressional Budget Office. Follow the hyperlink:
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43692-DeficitReduction_print.pdf
Recommended Reading:
-
Alice Rivlin, Systematic Thinking for Social Action.
Edward Quade, Analysis for Public Decisions.
Stokey and Zeckhauser, A Primer for Policy Analysis.
Howard Raiffa, Decision Analysis.
Memo: Memo assigned 2/19, due 2/26. Begin your policy analysis by writing a brief memo outlining the
problem and possible solutions in three pages or less (10 % of course grade).
Policy analysis project: Policy analysis assigned 3/5 due 4/16. Create a Weimer and Vining framework to
compare three alternative solutions to a problem you have selected in consultation with the instructor, in 15
pages or less (40% of course grade).
(4)
Pluralism as interactive problem solving. (2/26 and 3/5)
-
Read Robert Dahl, Democracy and Its Critics.
-
Read Bachrach and Baratz, “Two Faces of Power,” American Political Science Review, 56, 4
(December 1962): 947-952. This reading is on the Blackboard.
4
-
Read Charles Lindblom, “Policy Analysis,” The American Economic Review, 48, 3, (June
1958): 298-312. This reading is on the Blackboard.
-
Read Charles Lindblom, "The Science of 'Muddling Through.'" Public Administration
Review, 19, 2 (Spring 1959): 79-88. This reading is on the Blackboard.
-
Read Charles Lindblom, “Still Muddling, Not Yet Through.” Public Administration Review,
39, 6 (Nov.-Dec. 1979): 517-526. This reading is on the Blackboard.
Recommended reading:
(5)
Robert Dahl, Who Governs?
Charles Lindblom, The Intelligence of Democracy.
David Truman, The Governmental Process.
E.E. (Elmer) Schattschneider, The Semi-Sovereign People.
Mancur Olson, The Logic of Collective Action.
Theodore Lowi, The End of Liberalism.
Argumentative Policy Analysis. (3/19 and 3/26)
-
Read Ralph Hambrick, “A Guide for the Analysis of Policy Arguments,” Policy Sciences, 5,
1974: 469-478. This reading is on the Blackboard.
-
Read William Dunn, Public Policy Analysis, chapter 8, "Developing Policy Arguments." This
reading is on the Blackboard.
Examples of policy arguments:
o
Read Diamond and Orszag, “Reforming Social Security: A Balanced Plan.” Brookings
Institution Policy Brief #126. Follow the hyperlink:
http://www3.brookings.edu/comm/policybriefs/pb126.pdf
o
Read Michael Tanner, "Still a Better Deal: Private Investment vs. Social Security." Cato
Institute Policy Analysis # 692. Follow the hyperlink:
http://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/PA692.pdf
o
Read Virginia Reno, "Building on Social Security's Success." Economic Policy Institute
Briefing Paper #208. Follow the hyperlink:
http://www.sharedprosperity.org/bp208/bp208.pdf
Policy argument: Policy argument on Social Security reform, assigned 4/16, due 5/7 at noon. Present an
argument in favor of a particular solution to the Social Security financial crisis in 10 pages or less (25% of
the course grade).
5
(6)
Discursive policy analysis and collaborative public management. (4/2 and4/9)
-
Read Schneider and Ingram, Policy Design for Democracy.
-
Read Frank Fisher, “Beyond Empiricism: Policy analysis as deliberative practice,” chapter 7 in
Deliberative Policy Analysis, Hajer and Wagenaar (eds.). This reading is on the Blackboard.
-
Read Cooper, Bryer, and Meek, "Citizen-Centered Collaborative Public Management," Public
Administration Review, 66, Special Issue: Collaborative Public Management (Dec., 2006): 7688. This reading is on the Blackboard.
-
Read Archon Fung, "Varieties of Participation in Complex Governance," Public
Administration Review, 66, Special Issue: Collaborative Public Management (Dec., 2006): 6675. This reading is on the Blackboard.
Examples of discursive policy decision-making:
o
A citizen's poll on budgetary options:
http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/pdf/feb11/Budget_Feb11_rpt.pdf
o
Read Edward Weeks, “The Practice of Deliberative Democracy: Results from Four Large
Scale Trials,” Public Administration Review, 60, 4 (July 2000): 360-372. This reading is
on the Blackboard.
Recommended Reading:
(7)
(8)
John Dryzek, Discursive Democracy.
Maarten Hajer and Hendrik Wagenaar (eds.), Deliberative Policy Analysis.
Concerns about deliberation. (4/16)
-
Read Mark Button and Kevin Mattson, “Deliberative Democracy in Practice: Challenges and
Prospects for Civic Deliberation,” Polity 31, 4, (1999): 609-637. This reading is on the
Blackboard.
-
Read Karpowitz, Mendelberg, and Shaker, "Gender Inequality in Deliberative Participation,"
American Political Science Review 106, 3, (August 2012). This reading is on the Blackboard.
-
Read Jason Barabas, “How Deliberation Affects Policy Opinions,” American Political Science
Review 98, 4 (2004): 687-701. This reading is on the Blackboard.
Governance as problem-solving. (4/23)
-
Read Briggs, Democracy as Problem Solving.
If you include a large self-addressed envelope with your policy argument, I will return your paper via snailmail with comments.
6