Nivesh Daily Currency
February 26, 2016
Currency Pivot Levels
Currency
Pair
Close
USDINR
EURINR
GBPINR
JPYINR
69.12
76.23
96.30
61.57
%
OI %
Prev OI
Change Change %Change
0.2
0.64
0.5
-0.23
84.12
47.52
17.1
44.55
31.23
14.7
22.31
53.72
R*
Pivot
S*
69.3167
76.3800
96.5400
61.7400
69.0333
76.1425
96.2500
61.4150
68.8517
75.9825
96.0425
61.1800
* R= Resistance. S = Support
Foreign Currency Update
.
Currency Pair
Dollar Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
JPYUSD
Close
% Change
97.44
1.1018
1.3963
112.98
-0.07
0.04
0.26
0.70
Closing.
USDINR March Expiry Option Update
Options
Close
% Chg
OI
% OI Prev. OI %
CE 68.50
CE 69.00
CE 69.50
CE 70.00
0.8525
0.565
0.365
0.225
8.95
9.18
12.31
16.88
29753
178329
156555
196372
15.14
116.34
364.58
45.91
6.15
17.71
120.28
41.49
PE 68.50
PE 69.00
PE 69.50
PE 70.00
0.2325
0.4275
0.735
1.075
-19.13
-16.99
-11.45
-10.42
48373
142557
16845
450
57.23
118.18
379.23
20.32
36.42
45.6
144.61
50.81
Note: Previous day movement of Option, OI and IV is indicating positive move in USDINR.
RBI Reference Rate ( 25 February 2016)
Seema Yadav
1 USD
68.5650
1 GBP
95.8127
1 EURO
75.4695
100 YEN
61.2700
Research Analyst
Tel: +91-0731-4262702
seema.yadav@indianivesh.in
India Nivesh Securities Limited | SEBI Registration No.INH000000511
601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
Technical View on Major Currency Pair
USDINR ( March Future)
Succinct Summary of Previous Day
The Indian rupee fell to fresh 30-month low Thursday
tracking outflows from local equities amid dollar
demand from oil importers while the 10-year benchmark
bond yield rose to over two-month high on selling by
foreign banks coupled with caution ahead of the Union
Budget due next week.
Technical Review
USDINR witnessed a sharp bounce back from the
morning low 68.75, and tested 69.2150 before closing at
69.1275 levels. A positive consolidation above the
support 68.75 is indicating for upward may remain
continued, and a break above the 69.15 will expect to
show 69.40 and above. Alternatively, on the downside,
crucial support is seen at 68.75 a closing below this level
could expect correction towards 68.50-68.25.
Recommendation : March Future
LTP
69.12
Buy around
68.90-69.00
Target
69.25-69.50
Stop loss
68.75
Daily Chart
Important Factor: U.S. Prelim GDP q/q
EURINR ( March Future)
Succinct Summary of Previous Day
Euro remained little changed Thursday on dismal data
from both the euro-zone and world's biggest economy.
Further, the core Consumer Price Index of the 19-nation
economy dropped to -1.7% in January compared to a rise
of 0.3% a year ago, while it remained unchanged at 1% on
a monthly basis.
Technical Review:
EURINR failed to break below 75.60 and witnessed 0.48%
recovery rally yesterday. Today, a break above 76.40 is
expect to show further recovery and pair may test
76.80—77.00 levels, else failure of the break could show
retracement towards 76.00-75.75 again.
Recommendation(March Future)
Important Factor from Europe:
Daily
Spanish Flash CPI y/y
LTP
76.23
Buy above
76.40
Target
76.80-77.00
Stop loss
76.25
GBP ( March Future)
Succinct Summary of Previous Day
Pound traded flat Thursday on fears over Britain's exit from
European Union in its referendum set for June 23 amid
strong UK economic data. UK's fourth quarter GDP grew at
0.5% compared to 0.4% a quarter ago, while the measure
expanded at 1.9% annually, unchanged from a year ago..
Technical Review:
GBPINR witnessed its biggest daily fall and drop towards
new low 95.2325 yesterday. A long bearish candle stick
formation along with breakdown of long term support is on
EOD chart is yet indicating for bearishness in GBPINR, and
any rise towards 95.80-96.00 is expect to attract huge
selling pressure in days to come.
Recommendation : March Future
LTP
96.30
Sell around
95.90-96.00
Target
95.45-95.00
Stop loss
96.25
Daily Chart
Important factor/data from U.K.:
GfK Consumer Confidence
JPYINR (March Future)
Succinct Summary of Previous Day
Yen extended gains for the second straight trading session
Thursday as investors' risk appetite increased on higher oil
prices ahead of the meeting of finance ministers and central
bankers from the Group of 20 economies.
Technical Review
JPYINR failed to break above the previous swing high 61.75,
and consolidated around 61.00-61.50 levels. Short term
trend is expected to remain indecisive following to high
wave candle stick formation on EOD chart. Near term
resistance is seen at 61.75 sustain trade above only could
test 62.00-62.50 and above, else any rise towards 61.5061.60 could attract short time selling activities.
Recommendation/ View : March Future
LTP
61.57
Sell around 61.75-61.70
Target 61.30-61.00
Stop loss
62.00
Daily Chart
Important factor/data from Japan : Tokyo Core CPI y/y
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier
Eurostat said consumer price inflation rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.3% last month, down from a preliminary
estimate of 0.4%. Euro zone inflation rose by 0.2% in December.
Italian Retail Sales fell to -0.1%, from 0.2% in the preceding month whose figure was revised down from 0.3%.
U.K. business investment fell to a seasonally adjusted -2.1%, from 1.2% in the preceding quarter whose figure was
revised down from 2.2%.
U.K. gross domestic product expanded by a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in the first quarter, unchanged from an initial
estimate in line with expectations. The U.K.’s economy grew by 0.4% in the preceding quarter.
Germany’s consumer climate rose to 9.5, from 9.4 in the preceding month.
Bank of Japan retains the option to widen a negative interest rate from the current target of 0.1%, Governor
Haruhiko Kuroda said Friday.
People's Bank of China chief Zhou Xiaochuan on Friday said that underlying fundamentals don't warrant a sustained
weakening of the Chinese Yuan and added there was room on the policy side to do more.
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde on Friday called on global economic leaders to
take bold and sweeping action in concert to spur economic growth.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 272,000 for the week ended
Feb 20, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's claims were unrevised.
Rate hike fears were also lowered as the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said rising US
interest rate could undermine bank profits while their exposure to commercial real-estate also remains a risk.
Time
5:00am
5:35am
10:30am
All Day
1:15pm
1:30pm
Day 1
Tentative
7:00pm
8:30pm
8:45pm
Currency
JPY
JPY
GBP
JPY
EUR
EUR
EUR
EUR
ALL
EUR
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
USD
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Economic Indicators
Tokyo Core CPI y/y
National Core CPI y/y
GfK Consumer Confidence
BOJ Core CPI y/y
German Prelim CPI m/m
French Consumer Spending m/m
French Prelim CPI m/m
Spanish Flash CPI y/y
G20 Meetings
Italian 10-y Bond Auction
Prelim GDP q/q
Core PCE Price Index m/m
Goods Trade Balance
Personal Spending m/m
Personal Income m/m
Prelim GDP Price Index q/q
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
FOMC Member Powell Speaks
Forecast
-0.10%
-0.20%
3.00
1.20%
0.60%
0.60%
0.40%
-0.50%
0.40%
0.10%
-61.1B
0.30%
0.40%
0.80%
91.10
-
Previous
0.10%
4.00
1.30%
-0.80%
0.70%
-1.00%
-0.30%
1.44|1.4
0.70%
0.00%
-61.5B
0.00%
0.30%
0.80%
90.70
2.50%
-
Possible
Impact
Negative
Negative
Negative
Positive
Negative
Positive
Negative
Negative
Positive
Negative
Positive
Positive
Neutral
Positive
-
Impact: High Low Medium
Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and
negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Ticker News Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and
investing.com *Dos – Depends on Statement. DOV – Depends on Votes.
Source - investing.com & ticker news.
IndiaNivesh Research
Nivesh Daily Currency
IndiaNivesh Securities Limited | SEBI Registration No.INH000000511
601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007.
Tel: (022) 66188800 / Fax: (022) 66188899
e-mail: research@indianivesh.in | Website: www.indianivesh.in
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