IAVWOPSG/3-WP/16
International Civil Aviation Organization
15/1/07
WORKING PAPER
INTERNATIONAL AIRWAYS VOLCANO WATCH OPERATIONS GROUP
(IAVWOPSG)
THIRD MEETING
Bangkok, Thailand, 19 to 23 March 2007
Agenda Item 6: Development of the IAVW
6.4: Development of eruptions source parameters (ESP)
STATUS OF RESEARCH ON ERUPTION SOURCE PARAMETRES AND
DATASET OF WELL-DOCUMENTED ERUPTIONS
(Presented by the United States, Canada and the International
Union of Geodesy and Geophysics)
SUMMARY
The U.S. Geological Survey’s Volcano Hazards Program is offering to support
a volcano scientist at the Cascades Volcano Observatory to produce an
analysis of eruption source parameters for use in atmospheric volcanic-ash
transport and dispersion models. The work will include compilation and
analysis of a database of well-documented eruptions for which data from
remote-sensing, seismology, geology, meteorology, etc. exist. The desired
outcome of the analysis is a matrix (table) of eruption source parameters for
various types of eruptions that could be input as default values by ashdispersion modelers at the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers when specific
information for a particular eruption is not available. The IAVWOPSG has
been consulted to provide input to the determination of a suitable list of
eruptions for analysis and will continue to be consulted at other points during
the conduct of the project.
1.
INTRODUCTION
1.1
At the IAVWOPSG/2 Meeting in Lima in 2005, Conclusion 2/27 stated that the
United States member be tasked to investigate the feasibility of supporting a research project to work on
the issue of eruption source parameters (ESP) for the purpose of improving volcanological input to
atmospheric transport and dispersion models that are used to forecast ash-cloud movement. Furthermore,
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Conclusion 2/28 stated that International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) member and
Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) Montreal member coordinate the creation of a list of well-studied
eruptions for use in an analysis of ESP. This working paper reports on progress on these two related
conclusions.
1.2
The relevant ESP include: overall dimensions of the initial volume of ash (base and top
elevations, diameter), mass distribution of ash within the volume, total mass of ash erupted or ash
eruption rate, start time of the eruption of ash; duration of the eruption of ash, ash particle-size
distribution, particle density.
1.3
Of particular interest on the part of atmospheric transport and dispersion forecasters is to
have a matrix (table) of ESP data for various types of eruptions that could be applied as default values
when specific information for a particular eruption is not available. In order to provide dispersion
modelling in a timely manner during an ash-producing eruption, a VAAC needs at a minimum an
estimate of the ash-column height, the eruption start time, and eruption duration. The model would then
default to generic values for the other parameters listed above, for the type of eruption in progress. The
default values could be used by all VAAC for consistency in a first run of the model. As better
information becomes available, the model can be re-run with those data.
2.
DISCUSSION
2.1
Recognizing the importance of this issue, the Volcano Hazards Program of the
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is offering to support a volcano scientist at the Cascades Volcano
Observatory to produce an analysis of ESP for use in atmospheric volcanic-ash transport and dispersion
models. The work will include compilation and analysis of a database of well-documented eruptions of
types for which data from remote-sensing, seismology, geology, meteorology, etc. exist. The desired
outcome of the project is a matrix of ESP data for various styles and sizes of ash-producing eruptions that
could be input as default values by dispersion forecasters when specific information for a particular
eruption is not available. To facilitate use by forecasters, the ESP information can be included in the
ICAO Handbook on the International Airways Volcano Watch: Operational Procedures and Contact List
(Document 9766),
2.2
The USGS scientist will conduct the necessary interactions with key people involved in
this multi-disciplinary issue, including at various VAAC, the Air Resources Laboratory of the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Alaska Volcano Observatory, the Cascades Volcano
Observatory, the Air Force Weather Agency, the Smithsonian’s Global Volcanism Program, and various
academic institutions around the world.
Pinatubo, Philippines, June 1991
Spurr, Alaska, June to September 1992
Kliuchevskoi, Kamchatka, September 1994
Ruapehu, New Zealand, 1995 and 1996
Hekla, Iceland, February 2000
Nyamuragira, Democratic Republic of Congo, July 2002
Ruang, Indonesia, September 2002
Etna, Italy, October 2002
Reventador, Ecuador, November 2002
Popocatepetl, Mexico, February 2003
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Manam, Papua New Guinea, October 2004 to January 2005
Grimsvötn, Iceland, November 2004
Karthala, Comoros, November 2005
Tungurahua, Ecuador, August 2006
The list should be expanded to include eruptions from other regions not yet represented. In this regard the
group may wish to accept the offer of the USGS Volcano Hazards Program to support a volcano scientist
to produce an analysis of eruption source parameters for use in atmospheric volcanic-ash transport and
dispersion models and endorse the preliminary list of eruptions described in section 2.2 as a starting point
for the ESP project.
2.3
conclusion:
In accordance with the discussion above the group may wish to formulate the following
Conclusion 3/… ―
Research on eruption source parameters (ESP)
That,
3.
3.1
a)
an ad-hoc working group with participation of the members
from…….(Rapporteur) be tasked to provide input to the USGS scientist
conducting the ESP analysis; and
b)
request that the IUGG and the VAAC Montreal members provide a progress
report on ESP at the next IAVWOPSG/4 Meeting.
ACTION BY THE IAVWOPSG
The IAVWOPSG is invited to:
a) note the information in this paper; and
b) decide on the draft conclusion proposed for the group’s consideration.
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