Earthquake prediction and probabilities
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Dragoni, M., and E. Boschi (ed.), Earthquake prediction: proceedings of the
International School of Solid Earth Geophysics, 5th course, Il Cigno Galileo
Galilei edizioni di arte e scienza, Rome, 1992.
Geller, R. J., D. D. Jackson, Y. Y. Kagan, and F. Mulargia, Earthquakes cannot
be predicted, Science, vol. 275, 1616-1617, 1997.
Also see critical comments on the above paper by (i) M. Wyss, and (ii) R. Aceves
and S. Park, together with the authors' reply, under the title "Cannot earthquakes
be predicted?," Science, vol. 278, 487-490, 1997.
Lomnitz, C., Fundamentals of earthquake prediction, John Wiley & Sons, New
York, New York, 326p., 1994.
Simpson, D., and P. Richards (ed.), Earthquake prediction : an international
review, American Geophysical Washington, DC, 680 p., 1981.
Stuart, W. D., and K. Aki (ed.), Intermediate-term earthquake prediction,
Birkhauser, 1988.
Wyss, M. (ed), Seismicity Patterns, their Statistical Significance and Physical
Meaning, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 155, 1999.
This issue of Pure and Applied Geophysics is focused on the analysis of seismicity
patterns for earthquake prediction. The contents of the issue are available on-line
as pdf files.
Wyss, M. (ed.), Evaluation of proposed earthquake precursors, American
Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 1991.
Parkfield
o Bakun, W. H., et. al., Parkfield, California, earthquake prediction
scenarios and response plans, USGS Open-File Report 87-192, 1987.
o National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council Working Group to
evaluate the Parkfield Prediction Experiment, Earthquake research at
Parkfield--1993 and beyond, USGS Open-File Report 93-622, 1993.
o Lindh, A. G. and M. Lim, A clarification, correction, and updating of
Parkfield, California, earthquake prediction scenarios and response
plansUSGS Open-File Report 95-695, 1995.
o Michael, A. J., and L. M. Jones, A reevaluation of the seismicity alert
probabilities at Parkfield, California, USGS Open-File Report 95-630,
1995.
Earthquake Probabilities
o Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, Earthquake
Probabilities in the San Francisco Bay Region: 2000 to 2030 - A Summary
of Findings, USGS Open File Report 99-517, 1999.
On-line version
o Working Group on Northern California Earthquake Potential, Database of
Potential Sources for Earthquakes Larger than Magnitude 6 in Northern
California, USGS Open File Report 96-705, 1996.
On-line version
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Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, Probabilities of
Large Earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Region, California, USGS
Circular 1053, 1990.
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, Probabilities of
Large Earthquakes Occurring in California on the San Andreas Fault,
USGS Open-File Report 88-398, 1988.
Earthquake scenarios
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Davis J. et al., Earthquake Planning Scenario for a Magnitude 8.3 Earthquake on
the San Andreas Fault in the San Francisco Bay Area, CDMG Special
Publication 61, 1982.
Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Scenario for a Magnitude 7.0
Earthquake on the Hayward Fault, EERI, Oakland, CA, 109pp., paperback, 1996.
On-line exercise scenario, January 1998
Steinbrugge K. et al., Earthquake Planning Scenario for a Magnitude 7.5
Earthquake on the Hayward Fault in the San Francisco Bay Area, CDMG
Special Publication 78, 1987.
Toppozada T. et al., Planning Scenario for a Major Earthquake on the Rodgers
Creek Fault in the Northern San Francisco Bay Area, CDMG Special Publication
112, 1994.
Publications about the 1868 San Francisco Earthquake
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On-line information
Aldrich, M., B. Bolt, A. Leviton, and P. Rodda, The "Report" of the 1868
Haywards earthquake, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 76, 7176, 1996.
Lawson, A. C. (ed.),The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906, 1908,
Reprinted 1969 by the Carnegie Institution of Washington.
This is a comprehensive report on the 1906 earthquake, published by the State
Earthquake Investigation Commission, and comprises two volumes and an atlas.
It contains a discussion of the 1868 earthquake and its effects.
Prescott, W., Circumstances surrounding the preparation and suppression of a
report on the 1868 California earthquake, Bulletin of the Seismological Society
of America, 72, 2389-2393, 1982.
Wollenberg, C., Life on the Seismic Frontier: The Great San Francisco
Earthquake (of 1868), California History, Winter 1992/93, California Historical
Society, San Francisco, California, 1992.
Yu, E., and P. Segall,Slip in the 1868 Hayward Earthquake from the analysis of
historical triangulation data, Journal of Geophysical Research, 101, 1610116118, 1996.
On-line abstract
Publications about the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake
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On-line information
Hansen, G., and E. Condon, Denial of Disaster, Chronicle Press, San Francisco,
CA, 1989.
Lawson, A. C. (ed.), The California Earthquake of April 18, 1906, 1908,
Reprinted 1969 by the Carnegie Institution of Washington.
This is a comprehensive report on the 1906 earthquake, published by the State
Earthquake Investigation Commission, and comprises two volumes and an atlas.
An excellent resource.
Wald, D. J., Kanamori, H., Helmbeger, D. V., and T. H. Heaton, Source Study of
the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of
America, 83, 981-1019, 1993.
Publications about the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake
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On-line information
McNutt, S., and Sydnor, R. (ed.), The Loma Prieta (Santa Cruz Mountains),
California, Earthquake of 17 October 1989, CDMG Special Publication 104,
1990.
National Research Council, Practical Lessons from the Loma Prieta Earthquake,
National Academy Press, 1994.
Seismological Society of America (ed), The 1989 Loma Prieta, California,
Earthquake and its effects, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol.
81, 1991.
Spudich, P. (ed.), The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989 Main shock characteristics, USGS Professional Paper 1550, Denver, CO, 297 pp.,
paperback, 1996.
Field Trips
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On-line information
Bortugno, E., Living on the fault: a field guide to the visible evidence of the
Hayward Fault, BAREPP publications, 1988.
Bortugno, E., Living on the fault, II: a field guide to the visible evidence of the
San Andreas Fault, BAREPP publications, 1990.
Lienkaemper, J. Field Trip Guide to the Hayward Fault, USGS Open-File Report
89-500, 1989.
Sloan, D. and D. Wagner (ed.), Geologic Excursions in Northern Californa: San
Francisco to the Sierra Nevada, CDMG Special Publication 109, 1992.
Sylvester, A. and J. Crowell, The San Andreas Transform Belt: Field Trip
Guidebook T309, 28th International Geological Congress, American Geophysical
Union, Washington DC, 199 pp., paperback, 1989.
Maps
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On-line information
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Hart, E., Fault-Rupture Hazard Zones in California (Alquist-Priolo Special
Studies Zones Act of 1972 with Index to Special Studies Zones Maps), CDMG
Special Publication 42, 1992.
Jennings, C., Preliminary Fault Activity Map of California, CDMG Open-File
Report 92-03, 1992.
Lienkaemper, J., Map of recently active traces of the Hayward Fault, Alameda
and Contra Costa Counties, California, USGS Miscellaneous Field Studies Map,
Map MF-2196, 1992.
Perkins, J., On Shaky Ground, Association of Bay Area Governments, 1995.
You can view maps of predicted ground shaking, road closures, and housing
impact at the ABAG Web site.
Wagner, D., et al., Geologic Map of the San Francisco-San Jose Quadrangle,
CDMG Regional Geological Map Series, 1990.
Seismographs
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On-line information
Scientific American, "Seismograph Plans: How to build a simple seismograph to
record earthquake waves at home", 241, July 1979.
Scientific American, "The New Backyard Seismology", 100, April 1996.
Earthquake Preparedness
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On-line information
Sunset Special Report, "Getting Ready for a big quake", pp. 104-111, March
1982.
Sunset Magazine, "Quake, Part I", pp. 163-177, October 1990.
Sunset Magazine, "Quake, Part II", pp. 132-137, November 1990.
The Next Big Earthquake, 1990, available from: Earthquake, U.S. Geological
Survey, 345 Middlefield Road, Menlo Park, CA 94025
Periodicals
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California Geology : Subscription for this publication is $12 for 1 year, $24 for 2
years, or $36 for 3 years and can be ordered from: California Geology, P.O. Box
2980, Sacramento, CA 95812-2980. Each issue has a "Teacher Feature". Some of
the Teacher Features are available on-line.
Earthquakes and Volcanoes : This is a bimonthly publication dedicated to
earthquakes, volcanoes, and other natural hazards. It is available by subscription
($10.00 per year) from: Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing
Office, Washington, DC 20402, Telephone: (202) 783-3238.
Preliminary Determination of Epicenters Monthly Listing : This is a compilation
of all earthquake occurences world wide for a particular month. It is available by
subscription ($20.00 per year) from: Superintendent of Documents, U.S.
Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402, Telephone: (202) 783-3238.