Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis Chapter 12 Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis Multiple Choice Questions 1. Conventional theories presume that investors ____________ and behavioral finance presumes that they ____________. A. are irrational; are irrational B. are rational; may not be rational C. are rational; are rational D. may not be rational; may not be rational E. may not be rational; are rational 2. The premise of behavioral finance is that A. conventional financial theory ignores how real people make decisions and that people make a difference. B. conventional financial theory considers how emotional people make decisions but the market is driven by rational utility maximizing investors. C. conventional financial theory should ignore how the average person makes decisions because the market is driven by investors that are much more sophisticated than the average person. D. conventional financial theory considers how emotional people make decisions but the market is driven by rational utility maximizing investors, and conventional financial theory should ignore how the average person makes decisions because the market is driven by investors that are much more sophisticated than the average person. E. None of these is correct. 12-1 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 3. Some economists believe that the anomalies literature is consistent with investors' ____________ and ____________. A. ability to always process information correctly and therefore they infer correct probability distributions about future rates of return; given a probability distribution of returns, they always make consistent and optimal decisions B. inability to always process information correctly and therefore they infer incorrect probability distributions about future rates of return; given a probability distribution of returns, they always make consistent and optimal decisions C. ability to always process information correctly and therefore they infer correct probability distributions about future rates of return; given a probability distribution of returns, they often make inconsistent or suboptimal decisions D. inability to always process information correctly and therefore they infer incorrect probability distributions about future rates of return; given a probability distribution of returns, they often make inconsistent or suboptimal decisions E. None of these is correct. 4. Information processing errors consist of I) forecasting errors II) overconfidence III) conservatism IV) framing A. I and II B. I and III C. III and IV D. IV only E. I, II and III 5. Forecasting errors are potentially important because A. research suggests that people underweight recent information. B. research suggests that people overweight recent information. C. research suggests that people correctly weight recent information. D. research suggests that people either underweight recent information or overweight recent information depending on whether the information was good or bad. E. None of these is correct. 12-2 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 6. DeBondt and Thaler believe that high P/E result from investors' A. earnings expectations that are too extreme. B. earnings expectations that are not extreme enough. C. stock price expectations that are too extreme. D. stock price expectations that are not extreme enough. E. None of these is correct. 7. If a person gives too much weight to recent information compared to prior beliefs, they would make ________ errors. A. framing B. selection bias C. overconfidence D. conservatism E. forecasting 8. Single men trade far more often than women. This is due to greater ________ among men. A. framing B. regret avoidance C. overconfidence D. conservatism E. None of these is correct. 9. ____________ may be responsible for the prevalence of active versus passive investments management. A. Forecasting errors B. Overconfidence C. Mental accounting D. Conservatism E. Regret avoidance 12-3 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 10. Barber and Odean (2000) ranked portfolios by turnover and report that the difference in return between the highest and lowest turnover portfolios is 7% per year. They attribute this to A. overconfidence. B. framing. C. regret avoidance. D. sample neglect. E. overconfidence, framing, regret avoidance, and sample neglect. 11. ________ bias means that investors are too slow in updating their beliefs in response to evidence. A. Framing B. Regret avoidance C. Overconfidence D. Conservatism E. None of these is correct. 12. Psychologists have found that people who make decisions that turn out badly blame themselves more when that decision was unconventional. The name for this phenomenon is A. regret avoidance. B. framing. C. mental accounting. D. overconfidence. E. obnoxicity. 13. An example of ________ is that a person may reject an investment when it is posed in terms of risk surrounding potential gains but may accept the same investment if it is posed in terms of risk surrounding potential losses. A. framing B. regret avoidance C. overconfidence D. conservatism E. None of these is correct. 12-4 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 14. Statman (1977) argues that ________ is consistent with some investors' irrational preference for stocks with high cash dividends and with a tendency to hold losing positions too long. A. mental accounting B. regret avoidance C. overconfidence D. conservatism E. None of these is correct. 15. An example of ________ is that it is not as painful to have purchased a blue-chip stock that decreases in value, as it is to lose money on an unknown start-up firm. A. mental accounting B. regret avoidance C. overconfidence D. conservatism E. None of these is correct. 16. Arbitrageurs may be unable to exploit behavioral biases due to ____________. I) fundamental risk II) implementation costs III) model risk IV) conservatism V) regret avoidance A. I and II only B. I, II, and III C. I, II, III, and V D. II, III, and IV E. IV and V 12-5 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 17. ____________ are good examples of the limits to arbitrage because they show that the law of one price is violated. I) Siamese Twin Companies II) Unit trusts III) Closed end funds IV) Open end funds V) Equity carve outs A. I and II B. I, II, and III C. I, III, and V D. IV and V E. V 18. __________ was the grandfather of technical analysis. A. Harry Markowitz B. William Sharpe C. Charles Dow D. Benjamin Graham E. None of these is correct. 19. The goal of the Dow theory is to A. identify head and shoulder patterns. B. identify breakaway points. C. identify resistance levels. D. identify support levels. E. identify long-term trends. 20. A long-term movement of prices, lasting from several months to years is called _________. A. a minor trend B. a primary trend C. an intermediate trend D. trend analysis E. both a primary trend and trend analysis 12-6 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 21. A daily fluctuation of little importance is called ____________. A. a minor trend B. a primary trend C. an intermediate trend D. a market trend E. None of these is correct. 22. Price movements that are caused by short-term deviations of prices from the underlying trend line are called A. primary trends. B. secondary trends. C. tertiary trends. D. Dow trends. E. contrary trends. 23. The Dow theory posits that the three forces that simultaneously affect stock prices are ____________. I) primary trend II) intermediate trend III) momentum trend IV) minor trend V) contrarian trend A. I, II, and III B. II, III, and IV C. III, IV and V D. I, II, and IV E. I, III, and V 24. The Elliot Wave Theory ____________. A. is a recent variation of the Dow Theory B. suggests that stock prices can be described by a set of wave patterns C. is similar to the Kondratieff Wave theory D. is a recent variation of the Dow Theory and suggests that stock prices can be described by a set of wave patterns E. is a recent variation of the Dow Theory, suggests that stock prices can be described by a set of wave patterns, and is similar to the Kondratieff Wave theory 12-7 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 25. A trin ratio of less than 1.0 is considered as a _________. A. bearish signal B. bullish signal C. bearish signal by some technical analysts and a bullish signal by other technical analysts D. bullish signal by some fundamentalists E. bearish signal by some technical analysts, a bullish signal by other technical analysts and bullish signal by some fundamentalists 26. On October 29, 2009 there were 1,031 stocks that advanced on the NYSE and 610 that declined. The volume in advancing issues was 112,866,000 and the volume in declining issues was 58,188,000. The trin ratio for that day was ________ and technical analysts were likely to be ________. A. 0.87; bullish B. 0.87; bearish C. 1.15; bullish D. 1.15; bearish E. None of these is correct. 27. In regard to moving averages, it is considered to be a ____________ signal when market price breaks through the moving average from ____________. A. bearish; below B. bullish; below C. bearish; above D. bullish; above E. both bullish; below and bearish; above 28. Two popular moving average periods are A. 90-day and 52 week. B. 180-day and three year. C. 180-day two year. D. 200-day and 53 week. E. 200-day and two year. 12-8 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 29. ____________ is a measure of the extent to which a movement in the market index is reflected in the price movements of all stocks in the market. A. Put-call ratio B. Trin ratio C. Breadth D. Confidence index E. All of these are correct. 30. Then confidence index is computed from ____________ and higher values are considered ____________ signals. A. bond yields; bearish B. odd lot trades; bearish C. odd lot trades; bullish D. put/call ratios; bullish E. bond yields; bullish 31. The put/call ratio is computed as ____________ and higher values are considered ____________ signals. A. the number of outstanding put options divided by outstanding call options; bullish or bearish B. the number of outstanding put options divided by outstanding call options; bullish C. the number of outstanding put options divided by outstanding call options; bearish D. the number of outstanding call options divided by outstanding put options; bullish E. the number of outstanding call options divided by outstanding put options; bearish 32. The efficient market hypothesis ____________. A. implies that security prices properly reflect information available to investors B. has little empirical validity C. implies that active traders will find it difficult to outperform a buy-and-hold strategy D. has little empirical validity and implies that active traders will find it difficult to outperform a buy-and-hold strategy E. implies that security prices properly reflect information available to investors and implies that active traders will find it difficult to outperform a buy-and-hold strategy 12-9 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 33. Tests of market efficiency have focused on ____________. A. the mean-variance efficiency of the selected market proxy B. strategies that would have provided superior risk-adjusted returns C. results of actual investments of professional managers D. strategies that would have provided superior risk-adjusted returns and results of actual investments of professional managers E. the mean-variance efficiency of the selected market proxy and strategies that would have provided superior risk-adjusted returns 34. The anomalies literature ____________. A. provides a conclusive rejection of market efficiency B. provides conclusive support of market efficiency C. suggests that several strategies would have provided superior returns D. provides a conclusive rejection of market efficiency and suggests that several strategies would have provided superior returns E. None of these is correct. 35. Behavioral finance argues that ____________. A. even if security prices are wrong it may be difficult to exploit them B. the failure to uncover successful trading rules or traders cannot be taken as proof of market efficiency C. investors are rational D. even if security prices are wrong it may be difficult to exploit them, and the failure to uncover successful trading rules or traders cannot be taken as proof of market efficiency E. All of these are correct. 36. Markets would be inefficient if irrational investors __________ and actions if arbitragers were __________. A. existed; unlimited B. did not exist; unlimited C. existed; limited D. did not exist; limited E. None of these is correct. 12-10 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 37. If prices are correct __________ and if prices are not correct __________. A. there are no easy profit opportunities; there are no easy profit opportunities B. there are no easy profit opportunities; there are easy profit opportunities C. there are easy profit opportunities; there are easy profit opportunities D. there are easy profit opportunities; there are no easy profit opportunities E. None of these is correct. 38. __________ can lead investors to misestimate the true probabilities of possible events or associated rates of return. A. Information processing errors B. Framing errors C. Mental accounting errors D. Regret avoidance E. All of these are correct. 39. Kahneman and Tversky (1973) report that __________ and __________. A. people give too little weight to recent experience compared to prior beliefs; tend to make forecasts that are too extreme given the uncertainty of their information B. people give too much weight to recent experience compared to prior beliefs; tend to make forecasts that are too extreme given the uncertainty of their information C. people give too little weight to recent experience compared to prior beliefs; tend to make forecasts that are not extreme enough given the uncertainty of their information D. people give too much weight to recent experience compared to prior beliefs; tend to make forecasts that are not extreme enough given the uncertainty of their information E. None of these is correct. 40. Errors in information processing can lead investors to misestimate __________. A. true probabilities of possible events and associated rates of return B. occurrence of possible events C. only possible rates of return D. the effect of accounting manipulation E. fraud 12-11 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 41. DeBondt and Thaler (1990) argue that the P/E effect can be explained by __________. A. forecasting errors B. earnings expectations that are too extreme C. earnings expectations that are not extreme enough D. regret avoidance E. both forecasting errors and earnings expectations that are too extreme 42. Barber and Odean (2001) report that men trade __________ frequently than women and the frequent trading leads to __________ returns. A. less; superior B. less; inferior C. more; superior D. more; inferior E. None of these is correct. 43. Conservatism implies that investors are too __________ in updating their beliefs in response to new evidence and that they initially __________ to news. A. quick; overreact B. quick; under react C. slow; overreact D. slow; under react E. None of these is correct. 44. If information processing were perfect, many studies conclude that individuals would tend to make __________ decisions using that information due to __________. A. less-than-fully rational; behavioral biases B. fully rational; behavioral biases C. less-than-fully rational; fundamental risk D. fully rational; fundamental risk E. fully rational; utility maximization 12-12 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 45. The assumptions concerning the shape of utility functions of investors differ between conventional theory and prospect theory. Conventional theory assumes that utility functions are __________ whereas prospect theory assumes that utility functions are __________. A. concave and defined in terms of wealth; s-shaped (convex to losses and concave to gains) and defined in terms of loses relative to current wealth B. convex and defined in terms of loses relative to current wealth; s-shaped (convex to losses and concave to gains) and defined in terms of loses relative to current wealth C. s-shaped (convex to losses and concave to gains) and defined in terms of loses relative to current wealth; concave and defined in terms of wealth D. s-shaped (convex to losses and concave to gains) and defined in terms of wealth; concave and defined in terms of loses relative to current wealth E. convex and defined in terms of wealth; concave and defined in terms of gains relative to current wealth 46. The law-of-one-price posits that ability to arbitrage would force prices of identical goods to trade at equal prices. However, empirical evidence suggests that __________ are often mispriced. A. Siamese Twin Companies B. equity carve outs C. closed-end funds D. both Siamese Twin Companies and closed-end funds E. All of these are correct. 47. Kahneman and Tversky (1973) reported that people give __________ weight to recent experience compared to prior beliefs when making forecasts. This is referred to as __________. A. too little; hyper rationality B. too little; conservatism C. too much; framing D. too much; memory bias E. None of these is correct. 12-13 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 48. Kahneman and Tversky (1973) reported that __________ give too much weight to recent experience compared to prior beliefs when making forecasts. A. young men B. young women C. people D. older men E. older women 49. Barber and Odean (2001) report that men trade __________ frequently than women. A. less B. less in down markets C. more in up markets D. more E. None of these is correct. 50. Barber and Odean (2001) report that women trade __________ frequently than men. A. less B. less in down markets C. more in up markets D. more E. None of these is correct. 51. Barber and Odean (2001) report that men __________ than women. A. earn higher returns B. earn lower returns C. earn about the same returns D. generate lower trading costs E. None of these is correct. 12-14 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 52. Barber and Odean (2001) report that women __________ than men. A. earn higher returns B. earn lower returns C. earn about the same returns D. generate higher trading costs E. None of these is correct. 53. __________ effects can help explain momentum in stock prices. A. Conservatism B. Regret avoidance C. Prospect theory D. Mental accounting E. Model risk 54. Studies of Siamese twin companies find __________ which __________ the EMH. A. correct relative pricing; supports B. correct relative pricing; does not support C. incorrect relative pricing; supports D. incorrect relative pricing; does not support E. None of these is correct. 55. Studies of equity carve-outs find __________ which __________ the EMH. A. strong support for the Law of One Price; supports B. strong support for the Law of One Price; violates C. evidence against the Law of One Price; violates D. evidence against the Law of One Price; supports E. None of these is correct. 12-15 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 56. Studies of closed-end funds find __________ which __________ the EMH. A. prices at a premium to NAV; is consistent with B. prices at a premium to NAV; is inconsistent with C. prices at a discount to NAV; is consistent with D. prices at a discount to NAV; is inconsistent with E. both prices at a premium to NAV; is inconsistent with and prices at a discount to NAV; is inconsistent with Short Answer Questions 57. Compare and contrast the efficient market hypothesis with the school of thought termed behavioral finance. 58. Behavioral finance posits that investors possess information processing errors. Discuss the importance of information processing errors then list and explain the four information processing errors discussed in the text. 59. Behavioral finance posits that investors possess behavioral biases. Discuss the importance of behavioral biases then list and explain the four behavioral biases discussed in the text. 12-16 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 60. Discuss what technical analysis is, what technical analysts do, and the relationship between technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and behavioral finance. 12-17 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis Chapter 12 Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis Answer Key Multiple Choice Questions 1. Conventional theories presume that investors ____________ and behavioral finance presumes that they ____________. A. are irrational; are irrational B. are rational; may not be rational C. are rational; are rational D. may not be rational; may not be rational E. may not be rational; are rational Conventional theories presume that investors are rational and behavioral finance presumes that they may not be rational. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Basic Topic: Behavioral Critique 12-18 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 2. The premise of behavioral finance is that A. conventional financial theory ignores how real people make decisions and that people make a difference. B. conventional financial theory considers how emotional people make decisions but the market is driven by rational utility maximizing investors. C. conventional financial theory should ignore how the average person makes decisions because the market is driven by investors that are much more sophisticated than the average person. D. conventional financial theory considers how emotional people make decisions but the market is driven by rational utility maximizing investors, and conventional financial theory should ignore how the average person makes decisions because the market is driven by investors that are much more sophisticated than the average person E. None of these is correct. The premise of behavioral finance is that conventional financial theory ignores how real people make decisions and that people make a difference. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Basic Topic: Behavioral Critique 12-19 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 3. Some economists believe that the anomalies literature is consistent with investors' ____________ and ____________. A. ability to always process information correctly and therefore they infer correct probability distributions about future rates of return; given a probability distribution of returns, they always make consistent and optimal decisions B. inability to always process information correctly and therefore they infer incorrect probability distributions about future rates of return; given a probability distribution of returns, they always make consistent and optimal decisions C. ability to always process information correctly and therefore they infer correct probability distributions about future rates of return; given a probability distribution of returns, they often make inconsistent or suboptimal decisions D. inability to always process information correctly and therefore they infer incorrect probability distributions about future rates of return; given a probability distribution of returns, they often make inconsistent or suboptimal decisions E. None of these is correct. Some economists believe that the anomalies literature is consistent with investors inability to always process information correctly and therefore they infer incorrect probability distributions about future rates of return and given a probability distribution of returns, they often make inconsistent or suboptimal decisions. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 12-20 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 4. Information processing errors consist of I) forecasting errors II) overconfidence III) conservatism IV) framing A. I and II B. I and III C. III and IV D. IV only E. I, II and III Information processing errors consist of forecasting errors, overconfidence, and conservatism. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 5. Forecasting errors are potentially important because A. research suggests that people underweight recent information. B. research suggests that people overweight recent information. C. research suggests that people correctly weight recent information. D. research suggests that people either underweight recent information or overweight recent information depending on whether the information was good or bad. E. None of these is correct. Forecasting errors are potentially important because research suggests that people overweight recent information. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 12-21 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 6. DeBondt and Thaler believe that high P/E result from investors' A. earnings expectations that are too extreme. B. earnings expectations that are not extreme enough. C. stock price expectations that are too extreme. D. stock price expectations that are not extreme enough. E. None of these is correct. DeBondt and Thaler believe that high P/E result from investors earnings expectations that are too extreme. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 7. If a person gives too much weight to recent information compared to prior beliefs, they would make ________ errors. A. framing B. selection bias C. overconfidence D. conservatism E. forecasting If a person gives too much weight to recent information compared to prior beliefs, they would make forecasting errors. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 12-22 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 8. Single men trade far more often than women. This is due to greater ________ among men. A. framing B. regret avoidance C. overconfidence D. conservatism E. None of these is correct. Single men trade far more often than women. This is due to greater overconfidence among men. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 9. ____________ may be responsible for the prevalence of active versus passive investments management. A. Forecasting errors B. Overconfidence C. Mental accounting D. Conservatism E. Regret avoidance Overconfidence may be responsible for the prevalence of active versus passive investments management. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 12-23 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 10. Barber and Odean (2000) ranked portfolios by turnover and report that the difference in return between the highest and lowest turnover portfolios is 7% per year. They attribute this to A. overconfidence B. framing C. regret avoidance D. sample neglect E. overconfidence, framing, regret avoidance, and sample neglect They attribute this to overconfidence. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 11. ________ bias means that investors are too slow in updating their beliefs in response to evidence. A. Framing B. Regret avoidance C. Overconfidence D. Conservatism E. None of these is correct. Conservatism bias means that investors are too slow in updating their beliefs in response to evidence. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 12-24 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 12. Psychologists have found that people who make decisions that turn out badly blame themselves more when that decision was unconventional. The name for this phenomenon is A. regret avoidance B. framing C. mental accounting D. overconfidence E. obnoxicity An investments example given in the text is buying the stock of a start-up firm that shows subsequent poor performance, versus buying blue chip stocks that perform poorly. Investors tend to have more regret if they chose the less conventional start-up stock. DeBondt and Thaler say that such regret theory is consistent with the size effect and the book-to-market effect. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 13. An example of ________ is that a person may reject an investment when it is posed in terms of risk surrounding potential gains but may accept the same investment if it is posed in terms of risk surrounding potential losses. A. framing B. regret avoidance C. overconfidence D. conservatism E. None of these is correct. An example of framing is that a person may reject an investment when it is posed in terms of risk surrounding potential gains but may accept the same investment if it is posed in terms of risk surrounding potential losses. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 12-25 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 14. Statman (1977) argues that ________ is consistent with some investors' irrational preference for stocks with high cash dividends and with a tendency to hold losing positions too long. A. mental accounting B. regret avoidance C. overconfidence D. conservatism E. None of these is correct. Statman (1977) argues that mental accounting is consistent with some investors' irrational preference for stocks with high cash dividends and with a tendency to hold losing positions too long. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 15. An example of ________ is that it is not as painful to have purchased a blue-chip stock that decreases in value, as it is to lose money on an unknown start-up firm. A. mental accounting B. regret avoidance C. overconfidence D. conservatism E. None of these is correct. An example of regret avoidance is that it is not as painful to have purchased a blue-chip stock that decreases in value, as it is to lose money on an unknown start-up firm. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 12-26 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 16. Arbitrageurs may be unable to exploit behavioral biases due to ____________. I) fundamental risk II) implementation costs III) model risk IV) conservatism V) regret avoidance A. I and II only B. I, II, and III C. I, II, III, and V D. II, III, and IV E. IV and V Arbitrageurs may be unable to exploit behavioral biases due to fundamental risk, implementation costs, and model risk. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Limits to Arbitrage 17. ____________ are good examples of the limits to arbitrage because they show that the law of one price is violated. I) Siamese Twin Companies II) Unit trusts III) Closed end funds IV) Open end funds V) Equity carve outs A. I and II B. I, II, and III C. I, III, and V D. IV and V E. V Siamese Twin Companies, closed end funds, and equity carve outs are good examples of the limits to arbitrage because they show that the law of one price is violated. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Limits to Arbitrage 12-27 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 18. __________ was the grandfather of technical analysis. A. Harry Markowitz B. William Sharpe C. Charles Dow D. Benjamin Graham E. None of these is correct. Charles Dow, the originator of the Dow Theory, was the grandfather of technical analysis. Benjamin Graham might be considered the grandfather of fundamental analysis. Harry Markowitz and William Sharpe might be considered the grandfathers of modern portfolio theory. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Basic Topic: Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance 19. The goal of the Dow theory is to A. identify head and shoulder patterns. B. identify breakaway points. C. identify resistance levels. D. identify support levels. E. identify long-term trends. The Dow theory uses the Dow Jones Industrial Average as an indicator of long-term trends in market prices. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Basic Topic: Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance 12-28 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 20. A long-term movement of prices, lasting from several months to years is called _________. A. a minor trend B. a primary trend C. an intermediate trend D. trend analysis E. both a primary trend and trend analysis Minor trends are merely day-to-day price movements; intermediate trends are "corrections", or offsetting movements in one direction after longer-term movements in another direction; trends lasting for the period described above are primary trends. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Basic Topic: Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance 21. A daily fluctuation of little importance is called ____________. A. a minor trend B. a primary trend C. an intermediate trend D. a market trend E. None of these is correct. A daily fluctuation of little importance is called a minor trend. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Basic Topic: Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance 12-29 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 22. Price movements that are caused by short-term deviations of prices from the underlying trend line are called A. primary trends. B. secondary trends. C. tertiary trends. D. Dow trends. E. contrary trends. The secondary trend is caused by these deviations, which are eliminated by corrections that bring the prices back to the trend lines. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Basic Topic: Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance 23. The Dow theory posits that the three forces that simultaneously affect stock prices are ____________. I) primary trend II) intermediate trend III) momentum trend IV) minor trend V) contrarian trend A. I, II, and III B. II, III, and IV C. III, IV and V D. I, II, and IV E. I, III, and V The Dow theory posits that the three forces that simultaneously affect stock prices are primary trend, intermediate trend, and minor trend. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance 12-30 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 24. The Elliot Wave Theory ____________. A. is a recent variation of the Dow Theory B. suggests that stock prices can be described by a set of wave patterns C. is similar to the Kondratieff Wave theory D. is a recent variation of the Dow Theory and suggests that stock prices can be described by a set of wave patterns E. is a recent variation of the Dow Theory, suggests that stock prices can be described by a set of wave patterns, and is similar to the Kondratieff Wave theory Both the Elliot Wave Theory and the Kondratieff Wave Theory are recent variations on the Dow Theory, which suggests that stock prices move in identifiable wave patterns. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Basic Topic: Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance 25. A trin ratio of less than 1.0 is considered as a _________. A. bearish signal B. bullish signal C. bearish signal by some technical analysts and a bullish signal by other technical analysts D. bullish signal by some fundamentalists E. bearish signal by some technical analysts, a bullish signal by other technical analysts and bullish signal by some fundamentalists A trin ratio of less than 1.0 is considered bullish because the declining stocks have lower average volume than the advancing stocks, indicating net buying pressure. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Basic Topic: Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance 12-31 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 26. On October 29, 2009 there were 1,031 stocks that advanced on the NYSE and 610 that declined. The volume in advancing issues was 112,866,000 and the volume in declining issues was 58,188,000. The trin ratio for that day was ________ and technical analysts were likely to be ________. A. 0.87, bullish B. 0.87, bearish C. 1.15, bullish D. 1.15, bearish E. None of these is correct. (1,031/610)/(112,866,000/58,388,000) = 0.87. A trin ratio less than 1 is considered bullish because advancing stocks have a higher volume than declining stocks, indicating a buying pressure. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Apply Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance 27. In regard to moving averages, it is considered to be a ____________ signal when market price breaks through the moving average from ____________. A. bearish; below B. bullish; below C. bearish; above D. bullish; above E. both bullish; below and bearish; above In regard to moving averages, it is considered to be a bullish signal when market price breaks through the moving average from below. In addition, it is considered to be a bearish signal when market price breaks through the moving average from above. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance 12-32 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 28. Two popular moving average periods are A. 90-day and 52 week B. 180-day and three year C. 180-day two year D. 200-day and 53 week E. 200-day and two year Two popular moving average periods are 200-day and 53 week. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance 29. ____________ is a measure of the extent to which a movement in the market index is reflected in the price movements of all stocks in the market. A. Put-call ratio B. Trin ratio C. Breadth D. Confidence index E. All of these are correct. Breadth is a measure of the extent to which a movement in the market index is reflected in the price movements of all stocks in the market. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance 12-33 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 30. Then confidence index is computed from ____________ and higher values are considered ____________ signals. A. bond yields; bearish B. odd lot trades; bearish C. odd lot trades; bullish D. put/call ratios; bullish E. bond yields; bullish Then confidence index is computed from bond yields and higher values are considered bullish signals. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance 31. The put/call ratio is computed as ____________ and higher values are considered ____________ signals. A. the number of outstanding put options divided by outstanding call options; bullish or bearish B. the number of outstanding put options divided by outstanding call options; bullish C. the number of outstanding put options divided by outstanding call options; bearish D. the number of outstanding call options divided by outstanding put options; bullish E. the number of outstanding call options divided by outstanding put options; bearish The put/call ratio is computed as the number of outstanding put options divided by outstanding call options and higher values are considered bullish or bearish signals. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance 12-34 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 32. The efficient market hypothesis ____________. A. implies that security prices properly reflect information available to investors B. has little empirical validity C. implies that active traders will find it difficult to outperform a buy-and-hold strategy D. has little empirical validity and implies that active traders will find it difficult to outperform a buy-and-hold strategy E. implies that security prices properly reflect information available to investors and implies that active traders will find it difficult to outperform a buy-and-hold strategy The efficient market hypothesis implies that security prices properly reflect information available to investors and active traders will find it difficult to outperform a buy-and-hold strategy. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 33. Tests of market efficiency have focused on ____________. A. the mean-variance efficiency of the selected market proxy B. strategies that would have provided superior risk-adjusted returns C. results of actual investments of professional managers D. strategies that would have provided superior risk-adjusted returns and results of actual investments of professional managers E. the mean-variance efficiency of the selected market proxy and strategies that would have provided superior risk-adjusted returns Tests of market efficiency have focused on strategies that would have provided superior riskadjusted returns and results of actual investments of professional managers. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 12-35 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 34. The anomalies literature ____________. A. provides a conclusive rejection of market efficiency B. provides conclusive support of market efficiency C. suggests that several strategies would have provided superior returns D. provides a conclusive rejection of market efficiency and suggests that several strategies would have provided superior returns E. None of these is correct. The anomalies literature suggests that several strategies would have provided superior returns. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 35. Behavioral finance argues that ____________. A. even if security prices are wrong it may be difficult to exploit them B. the failure to uncover successful trading rules or traders cannot be taken as proof of market efficiency C. investors are rational D. even if security prices are wrong it may be difficult to exploit them, and the failure to uncover successful trading rules or traders cannot be taken as proof of market efficiency E. All of these are correct. Behavioral finance argues that even if security prices are wrong it may be difficult to exploit them and the failure to uncover successful trading rules or traders cannot be taken as proof of market efficiency. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 12-36 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 36. Markets would be inefficient if irrational investors __________ and actions if arbitragers were __________. A. existed; unlimited B. did not exist; unlimited C. existed; limited D. did not exist; limited E. None of these is correct. Markets would be inefficient if irrational investors existed and actions if arbitragers were limited. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Limits to Arbitrage 37. If prices are correct __________ and if prices are not correct __________. A. there are no easy profit opportunities; there are no easy profit opportunities B. there are no easy profit opportunities; there are easy profit opportunities C. there are easy profit opportunities; there are easy profit opportunities D. there are easy profit opportunities; there are no easy profit opportunities E. None of these is correct. If prices are correct there are no easy profit opportunities and if prices are not correct there are no easy profit opportunities. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Limits to Arbitrage 12-37 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 38. __________ can lead investors to misestimate the true probabilities of possible events or associated rates of return. A. Information processing errors B. Framing errors C. Mental accounting errors D. Regret avoidance E. All of these are correct. Information processing errors can lead investors to misestimate the true probabilities of possible events or associated rates of return. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Limits to Arbitrage 39. Kahneman and Tversky (1973) report that __________ and __________. A. people give too little weight to recent experience compared to prior beliefs; tend to make forecasts that are too extreme given the uncertainty of their information B. people give too much weight to recent experience compared to prior beliefs; tend to make forecasts that are too extreme given the uncertainty of their information C. people give too little weight to recent experience compared to prior beliefs; tend to make forecasts that are not extreme enough given the uncertainty of their information D. people give too much weight to recent experience compared to prior beliefs; tend to make forecasts that are not extreme enough given the uncertainty of their information E. None of these is correct. Kahneman and Tversky (1973) report that people give too much weight to recent experience compared to prior beliefs and tend to make forecasts that are too extreme given the uncertainty of their information. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Challenge Topic: Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance 12-38 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 40. Errors in information processing can lead investors to misestimate __________. A. true probabilities of possible events and associated rates of return B. occurrence of possible events C. only possible rates of return D. the effect of accounting manipulation E. fraud Errors in information processing can lead investors to misestimate true probabilities of possible events and associated rates of return. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance 41. DeBondt and Thaler (1990) argue that the P/E effect can be explained by __________. A. forecasting errors B. earnings expectations that are too extreme C. earnings expectations that are not extreme enough D. regret avoidance E. both forecasting errors and earnings expectations that are too extreme DeBondt and Thaler (1990) argue that the P/E effect can be explained by forecasting errors and earnings expectations that are too extreme. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 12-39 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 42. Barber and Odean (2001) report that men trade __________ frequently than women and the frequent trading leads to __________ returns. A. less; superior B. less; inferior C. more; superior D. more; inferior E. None of these is correct. Barber and Odean (2001) report that men trade more frequently than women and the frequent trading leads to inferior returns. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 43. Conservatism implies that investors are too __________ in updating their beliefs in response to new evidence and that they initially __________ to news. A. quick; overreact B. quick; under react C. slow; overreact D. slow; under react E. None of these is correct. Conservatism implies that investors are too slow in updating their beliefs in response to new evidence and that they initially under react to news. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 12-40 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 44. If information processing were perfect, many studies conclude that individuals would tend to make __________ decisions using that information due to __________. A. less-than-fully rational; behavioral biases B. fully rational; behavioral biases C. less-than-fully rational; fundamental risk D. fully rational; fundamental risk E. fully rational; utility maximization If information processing were perfect, many studies conclude that individuals would tend to make less-than-fully rational decisions using that information due to behavioral biases. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 45. The assumptions concerning the shape of utility functions of investors differ between conventional theory and prospect theory. Conventional theory assumes that utility functions are __________ whereas prospect theory assumes that utility functions are __________. A. concave and defined in terms of wealth; s-shaped (convex to losses and concave to gains) and defined in terms of loses relative to current wealth B. convex and defined in terms of loses relative to current wealth; s-shaped (convex to losses and concave to gains) and defined in terms of loses relative to current wealth C. s-shaped (convex to losses and concave to gains) and defined in terms of loses relative to current wealth; concave and defined in terms of wealth D. s-shaped (convex to losses and concave to gains) and defined in terms of wealth; concave and defined in terms of loses relative to current wealth E. convex and defined in terms of wealth; concave and defined in terms of gains relative to current wealth The assumptions concerning the shape of utility functions of investors differ between conventional theory and prospect theory. Conventional theory assumes that utility functions are concave and defined in terms of wealth whereas prospect theory assumes that utility functions are s-shaped (convex to losses and concave to gains) and defined in terms of loses relative to current wealth. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Challenge Topic: Behavioral Critique 12-41 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 46. The law-of-one-price posits that ability to arbitrage would force prices of identical goods to trade at equal prices. However, empirical evidence suggests that __________ are often mispriced. A. Siamese Twin Companies B. equity carve outs C. closed-end funds D. both Siamese Twin Companies and closed-end funds E. All of these are correct. The law-of-one-price posits that ability to arbitrage would force prices of identical goods to trade at equal prices. However, empirical evidence suggests that Siamese Twin Companies, equity carve outs, and closed-end funds are often mispriced. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Challenge Topic: Limits to Arbitrage 47. Kahneman and Tversky (1973) reported that people give __________ weight to recent experience compared to prior beliefs when making forecasts. This is referred to as __________. A. too little; hyper rationality B. too little; conservatism C. too much; framing D. too much; memory bias E. None of these is correct. Kahneman and Tversky (1973) reported that people give too much weight to recent experience compared to prior beliefs when making forecasts. This is referred to as memory bias. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 12-42 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 48. Kahneman and Tversky (1973) reported that __________ give too much weight to recent experience compared to prior beliefs when making forecasts. A. young men B. young women C. people D. older men E. older women Kahneman and Tversky (1973) reported that people give too much weight to recent experience compared to prior beliefs when making forecasts. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 49. Barber and Odean (2001) report that men trade __________ frequently than women. A. less B. less in down markets C. more in up markets D. more E. None of these is correct. Barber and Odean (2001) report that men trade more frequently than women. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 12-43 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 50. Barber and Odean (2001) report that women trade __________ frequently than men. A. less B. less in down markets C. more in up markets D. more E. None of these is correct. Barber and Odean (2001) report that men trade more frequently than women. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 51. Barber and Odean (2001) report that men __________ than women. A. earn higher returns B. earn lower returns C. earn about the same returns D. generate lower trading costs E. None of these is correct. Barber and Odean (2001) report that men trade more frequently than women and have lower returns. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 12-44 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 52. Barber and Odean (2001) report that women __________ than men. A. earn higher returns B. earn lower returns C. earn about the same returns D. generate higher trading costs E. None of these is correct. Barber and Odean (2001) report that men trade more frequently than women and have lower returns. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Remember Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 53. __________ effects can help explain momentum in stock prices. A. Conservatism B. Regret avoidance C. Prospect theory D. Mental accounting E. Model risk Mental accounting effects can help explain momentum in stock prices. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Behavioral Critique 12-45 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 54. Studies of Siamese twin companies find __________ which __________ the EMH. A. correct relative pricing; supports B. correct relative pricing; does not support C. incorrect relative pricing; supports D. incorrect relative pricing; does not support E. None of these is correct. Studies of Siamese twin companies find incorrect relative pricing which does not support the EMH. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Limits to Arbitrage 55. Studies of equity carve-outs find __________ which __________ the EMH. A. strong support for the Law of One Price; supports B. strong support for the Law of One Price; violates C. evidence against the Law of One Price; violates D. evidence against the Law of One Price; supports E. None of these is correct. Studies of equity carve-outs find evidence against the Law of One Price which violates the EMH. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Limits to Arbitrage 12-46 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 56. Studies of closed-end funds find __________ which __________ the EMH. A. prices at a premium to NAV; is consistent with B. prices at a premium to NAV; is inconsistent with C. prices at a discount to NAV; is consistent with D. prices at a discount to NAV; is inconsistent with E. both prices at a premium to NAV; is inconsistent with and prices at a discount to NAV; is inconsistent with Studies of closed-end funds find prices at premiums and discounts to NAV which is inconsistent with the EMH. AACSB: Analytic Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Intermediate Topic: Limits to Arbitrage Short Answer Questions 57. Compare and contrast the efficient market hypothesis with the school of thought termed behavioral finance. The efficient market hypothesis posits that investors are fully informed, rational, utility maximizers. Thus, security prices will fully reflect all information available to the investors. If any security becomes mispriced, the collective buying and selling actions of investors will quickly cause prices to change. Given an efficient market, it would be difficult to find a trading rule that would consistently outperform the market. Moreover, failure to uncover profitable trading strategies may be taken as proof of market efficiency. Behavioral finance argues that conventional theory ignores how real people make decisions and that people make a difference. Behavioral finance says that investors possess two "irrationalities". First, investors do not always process information correctly and secondly they often make systematically suboptimal decisions. Given less than perfectly rational investors, prices may be wrong and it still may be hard to exploit them. Thus, failure to uncover profitable trading strategies may not be taken as proof of market efficiency. AACSB: Reflective Thinking Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Challenge Topic: Behavioral Critique 12-47 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 58. Behavioral finance posits that investors possess information processing errors. Discuss the importance of information processing errors then list and explain the four information processing errors discussed in the text. Information processing errors are important because they can lead investors to misestimate the true probabilities of possible events or associated rates of return. The four information processing errors are forecasting errors, overconfidence, conservatism, and sample size neglect. Forecasting errors arise when people give too much weight to recent experience. This leads to forecasts that are too extreme. Overconfidence refers to traders believing that they are better than average. This belief that they are superior leads to frequent trading (and according to empirical evidence, lower returns). Conservatism refers investors being slow in responding to new information rather than acting immediately. Sample size neglect refers to investors ignoring the size of a sample and making inferences based on a small sample. Feedback: This question tests the students understanding of information processing errors. AACSB: Reflective Thinking Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Challenge Topic: Behavioral Critique 12-48 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 59. Behavioral finance posits that investors possess behavioral biases. Discuss the importance of behavioral biases then list and explain the four behavioral biases discussed in the text. Behavioral biases are important because even if information processing was perfect, individuals may tend to make less-than-fully rational decisions using that information. The four behavioral biases are framing, mental accounting, regret avoidance, and prospect theory (or loss aversion). Framing refers to the tendency of investors to change preferences due to the way an investment is "framed" (i.e., in terms of risk or in terms of return). Mental accounting is a specific form of framing where an investor takes a lot of risk with one investment account but little risk with another account. Regret avoidance refers to the tendency of investors to blame themselves more for an unconventional investment that was unsuccessful than a conventional investment that was unsuccessful. Prospect theory (loss avoidance) suggests that the investor's utility curve is not concave and defined in terms of wealth. Instead, the investor's utility function would be defined in terms of losses relative to current wealth. Thus, the utility curve is convex to losses and concave to gains giving rise to an s-shaped utility curve. Feedback: This question tests the students understanding of behavioral biases. AACSB: Reflective Thinking Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Challenge Topic: Behavioral Critique 12-49 Chapter 12 - Behavioral Finance and Technical Analysis 60. Discuss what technical analysis is, what technical analysts do, and the relationship between technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and behavioral finance. Technical analysis attempts to exploit recurring and predictable patterns in stock prices to generate superior portfolio performance. To determine recurring patterns, technical analysts examine historical returns by means of charts and or time-series analysis (such as moving averages). Technical analysts do not deny fundamental analysis but believe that prices adjust slowly to new information. Therefore, the key is to exploit the slow adjustment to the correct new price when information is released. Technical analysts also use volume and other data to assess market sentiment in an attempt to ascertain the future direction of the market. Behaviorists believe that behavioral biases may be related to both price and volume data. Thus, technical analysis can be related to behavioral finance. Feedback: This question tests the students understanding of technical analysis; and how technical analysis relates to fundamental analysis and behavioral finance. AACSB: Reflective Thinking Bloom's: Understand Difficulty: Challenge Topic: Technical Analysis and Behavioral Finance 12-50