War and the World Term 2, Lecture 3 Conflict in the Middle East Central Thesis: Conflict between Israel and Palestine is based on land ownership, disputed borders and water access. A legacy of unending conflict, beginning even before the foundation of Israel in 1948, has made the final settlement of these questions elusive. Neighbouring Arab states have become involved in the dispute, often for reasons of national selfinterest or because of domestic pressures. Further East, a tradition of militarized politics in Iraq and the ambitions of Saddam Hussein clashed with the revolutionary Islamic ambitions of the Iranians. The legacy of this conflict led to the further destabilisation of the region and intervention by the Western (and other world) powers. This was nothing new however: throughout the Cold War the Superpowers backed rival states to maintain their influence in the region. The region is central to the fortunes of the world economy because of its abundance of oil. Sadly, not all of the oil rich states are in favour of democratic politics. Key Questions: 1. Why is the Middle East the focal point of such long term and persistent conflict? 2. What are the principal landmarks in the region’s past conflicts? 3. Why as the West really been at war with Iraq? Structure: Cultural and religious divisions (in notes) Territorial divisions at the end of the First World War (in notes) 1. The formation of Israel and the Arab-Israeli dispute 2. Western relations with the Middle East (including the Suez Crisis) 3. The Arab-Israeli wars, 1967, 1973 and 1982 4. The Iranian Revolution and its regional consequences (USA, Iraq and Afghanistan) 5. The Gulf War, 1990-91 6. Revolutionary politics in ‘Palestine’, Afghanistan, and across the Muslim World 7. The Iraq War, 2003+ 1. The formation of Israel and the Arab-Israeli dispute Situation after 1945 Influx of Jewish immigrants and Arab resistance Evolution of antagonised ideologies The Arab-Israeli War of 1948 Israeli victory established the Jewish state, but left Palestinians in limbo The responses of other states 1 2. Western Relations with the Middle East (including the Suez Crisis) Growing dispute between the West and Egypt The Suez Crisis Results Benefits for Israel and Egypt The Arab states were still too weak to confront Israel 3. The Arab-Israeli Wars, 1967, 1973 and 1982 Regional arms race Causes of the 1967 war (water, raiding, faith in allies) The Six Day War 1967 Results Israeli victory Yom Kippur War, 1973 Israelis kept their gains Lebanon Collapse of order in 1970s, Israeli intervention and Civil War The Civil War that developed 1984-89. 4. The Iranian Revolution and its regional consequences (USA, Iraq and Afghanistan) The breakdown of the Shah’s regime The revolutionary rhetoric of Ayatollah Khomeini The Rise of Saddam Hussein The Iran-Iraq War, 1980-89 Results Afghanistan, the shifting regional Balance of power and the inspiration of radical groups The Gulf War, 1990-91 Saddam Hussein’s reasons for invading Kuwait The formation of a coalition and Desert Shield Operation Desert Storm Results defeat of Iraq but survival of Hussein, the Kurds rebellion, UN responses. The legacy of the war Revolutionary politics in ‘Palestine’, Afghanistan, and across the Muslim World The Palestinian Intifada and terrorist groups Israeli responses Attempts to find a settlement 9/11 and US led operations against Afghanistan. The Iraq War, 2003+ The weapons inspectors and UN relations with Iraq The strategic situation: Was Saddam Hussein a threat? The other arguments in favour of intervention: Regime change and democracy for Iraq, oil, the weapons issue, the UN resolutions. Arguments against: Evidence of weapons of mass destruction, oil, American interests, fears of civilian casualties and ambiguity about UN approval The war Features and Problems Successes 2 More problems in 2004 An end to the Palestinian Question? The end of Arafat The ‘road map for peace’ 2003 Continuing violence The Gaza withdrawal 2005 and its aftermath. Conclusions 3