Example Trip Reports for Trip Monitoring by Scott Dennstaedt Here are a few example trip reports e-mailed to pilots for proposed flights. Assumptions Under IFR departing Thurs, April 8th CYFD - KBUF (customs) Depart 1300Z Route: Direct BUF 37 minutes en route at 5000ft KBUF - KBED Depart 1430Z Route: GEE V14 GDM V431 LOBBY 2 hours en route at 14,000ft Surface synoptic overview A developing area of low pressure now moving into the Upper Great Lakes area is trailing a cold front to the southwest. A pseudo-stationary/warm front extends from the low pressure now in northern IL eastward cutting to the north of the proposed route. A distinct line of convection has developed along the cold front and ahead of the area of low pressure. High pressure off the Southeast coast is keeping the mid-Atlantic and most of the Northeast precipitation free. But this high is slowly retreating in response to the approaching cold front. Upper-level synoptic overview A high-amplitude upper-level trough is moving into the eastern-half of the U.S. and is now assuming more of a neutral tilt (previously a positive tilt). Associated jet streak over the Ohio Valley is expected to move east-northeast into the Upper Great Lakes by 12Z-15Z on Thursday which will enhance convection over northern Ohio and eastern Michigan in the early morning. Ridge off the Carolinas is retreating slowly which is allowing this trough to continue to move east. Forecast As the low pressure system deepens and occludes and slowly moves into the lower Great Lakes region, the pseudo-stationary front in the Northeast will sag a bit south through the night into Thursday morning. This will spread heavy rain into western NY and western PA throughout the morning. The primary threat of thunderstorms arrives from the southwest between 15Z - 18Z on Thursday in western NY. The precipitation shield will be fairly large and some of the rain in western NY could be heavy in spots. Copyright © 2010 Chesapeake Aviation Training, Inc. All rights reserved. | (704) 759-6601 | http://avwxworkshops.com Although there will be definite breaks in the precip in areas, but it's hard to say where. There's a low confidence on the timing of convection into the lower Great Lakes. Appears most of the area will be experiencing only moderate to occasionally heavy rain, but an outside chance of an embedded thunderstorm remains possible as early as 12Z. Clouds Appears that marginal VFR conditions will prevail along most of the proposed route and to the north of the route, however, VFR to maybe even clear conditions will exist in eastern PA, southeastern NY, NJ, CT and most of Mass. Clouds will go from overcast to broken to scattered starting in central NY. If necessary, a flight path with a more southerly route will give you the best flight conditions in terms of clouds. Icing The freezing level will be about 8,000 feet just to the west of your departure airport increasing in height eastward to about 12,000 feet in Boston at 16Z. Likely flight will need to be limited to 10,000 feet and below until in central NY where skies should turn more broken to scattered. Turbulence Most of the turbulence will exist below about 10,000 feet in western NY. Once clear of the primary precip shield, flight above 8,000 feet should be limited to light chop. Summary Overall, the eastern two-thirds of the route should be fairly benign with marginal VFR conditions to the north of the route and VFR conditions to the south. It's the first third of the route that will be difficult. Thunderstorms may be ongoing in the vicinity of western NY or it could be just a moderate rain in the morning. The best chance of thunder occurs after 15Z, but don't count out a heavy cell or two in western PA and western NY in the morning. Once you reach central NY, the conditions should improve and you may even notice good VFR weather above the clouds at that point. Copyright © 2010 Chesapeake Aviation Training, Inc. All rights reserved. | (704) 759-6601 | http://avwxworkshops.com Assumptions Departing HPN Thursday morning at 1200 UTC headed to Crossville, TN. After lunch departing Crossville for New Orleans, LA. Flight at or below 11,000 feet MSL. Surface synoptic overview Very broad anti-cyclone (high pressure) moving south out of Ontario/Quebec Canada is dominating the northeast and most of the eastern-half of the U.S. A dry quasi-stationary front/cold front oriented generally oriented northwest-southeast splits the high pressure in the mid-Atlantic and has pushed south into northern part of the Southeast and eastern TN Valley regions. The only activity with this front has been a few showers and thunderstorms in the extreme southeastern mid-Atlantic that have since dissipated. A cool marine layer with northesterly flow around the high has moved inland producing a marginal VFR stratus deck across the southern mid-Atlantic this morning and early afternoon. An occluded area of low pressure has been tracking to the northeast from the northern high Plains into Saskatchewan, Canada over the last 24 hours. This low pressure is slowing its northerly progress while trailing a cold front into the northern and central Plains. The cold front has only been drifting east in response to the large high pressure locked firmly in place in the eastern-third of the U.S. Upper-level synoptic overview High amplitude trough is moving from eastern Quebec southeast into New Brunswick, Canada keeping a northwesterly flow aloft in the Northeast U.S. today. A broad subtropical ridge, however, is dominating the Southeast as well as the lower MS and TN Valleys at the moment. The axis of the ridge extends north from the western TN Valley into the western Ohio Valley and western northern Great Lakes into Ontario, Canada and has moved or strengthened very little over the last 24 hours. A broad trough with two distinct centers is located in the western-third of the U.S. The easternmost center has been tracking to the north-northeast and is stacked over the surface low now located in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. The secondary upper low has been retrograding to the westsouthwest now located well off the Wash/Oregon coast. The ridge in the east is creating a blocking pattern which has kept the colder air mass in the west (along with the surface boundary/front) from making any eastward progress. Thunderstorm potential In the near-term, a weak short-wave trough evident in the water vapor satellite imagery is moving north into the southern MS Valley from the Gulf today around the backside of the ridge. Given the plume of moisture off the Gulf with heating during the day it has triggered some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon in Louisiana. As the high pressure builds south into the mid-Atlantic and Southeast tomorrow, this should keep the threat of convection away to the west and southwest of New Orleans. However, parts of extreme western LA and extreme eastern TX could see convection develop around 20-21Z tomorrow. Risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms will exist from western PA with two waves the first developing around 17Z. This area will quickly dissipate and the second line will develop again in extreme western PA around 20Z moving east-southeast. Can also expect an area of widely scattered convection to develop around 20-21Z tomorrow in eastern TN, western SC/NC and northern GA. Best chances will Copyright © 2010 Chesapeake Aviation Training, Inc. All rights reserved. | (704) 759-6601 | http://avwxworkshops.com be in eastern TN, but most of the convection should stay east of Crossville. Any convection that does develop will move very slow due to light upper level winds. Low confidence at the moment that this convection will develop at all. Clouds Cold air dammed in along the eastern foothills of the Appalachains from today's marine layer in the midAtlantic will produce some low-level stratus clouds in the morning from Charlottesville, VA southwest into Atlanta, GA. This will obsure the mountains in this area. All of this should quickly dissipate by late morning as temps increase with southwesterly flow around the high building down into the Southeast. A high-base scattered cumulus field may develop into the eastern to central TN region in the midafternoon. Outside of convective activity, ceilings should remain clear below 12,000 feet over most of the route with the exception of New Orleans which could be looking at a broken stratocumulus sky through most of the afternoon. Bases in New Orleans should remain VFR. Turbulence Given the rather stable conditions with light winds, turbulence should be limited to boundary layer thermal turbulence at or below 6,000 feet AGL in the afternoon. Icing/Freezing level Freezing level should be around 7,000 feet in the NY area increasing in height to around 12,000 feet in New Orleans. No significant icing can be expected along the route. Summary Overall a fairly tranquil atmosphere under high pressure along your route. The only fly in the ointment is the potential for building cumulus in the mid-afternoon in eastern TN. Some of this might develop into deep, moist convection especially toward the mountains of TN, NC, SC and GA. It should be widely scattered. Copyright © 2010 Chesapeake Aviation Training, Inc. All rights reserved. | (704) 759-6601 | http://avwxworkshops.com Assumptions Flying under IFR at 11,000 feet Departing KVNY at 1500 UTC and arriving at KDMN around 1800 UTC. Departing KDMN at 1900 UTC and arriving at KSOA around 2100 UTC. Synoptic surface overview Surface high pressure dominates the southeastern U.S. and into the lower Mississippi Valley bringing in a south to southeasterly flow into western and south-central Texas transporting increasing amount of moisture into the Rio Grande Valley and further north into the central and southern high Plains. An area of low pressure is slowly moving out of the northern Rockies into the northern high Plains extending a cold front south into the central and southern high Plains. As the system begins to occlude and slow its forward progress to the northeast, the cold front is also tracking a bit slowly to the east and is beginning to stall over eastern New Mexico. This slow-moving cold front has a couple weak areas of disturbances riding on the front bringing showers and thunderstorms to southeastern New Mexico. Synoptic upper-level overview Upper-level, high amplitude 500 mb trough slammed into the west coast of California on Monday morning. This trough has become negatively-tilted with time passing over the Four Corners region and has now lifted to the northeast into the northern Plains as it continues to slightly weaken and become stacked with the now occluded low at the surface. A secondary trough located in the Pacific Northwest is rotating around the back side of this trough, but appears to have stopped further movement south. Sub-tropical ridge is holding firmly in place and dominates Mississippi Valley and Southeast. The ridge extends well into the northern Mississippi Valley, western Ontario and Manitoba Canada which is keeping the broad trough in the west from progressing further east. The proposed route still carries a general an overall broad trough pattern in the western half of the U.S. with the primary concern is a weak short-wave trough with an axis over south-central California into the Gulf of California. Thunderstorm potential 12Z on Wednesday, ongoing thunderstorms will be present along a slow-moving cold front in a curved line from western Minnesota southwestward into the panhandle of Texas. Additional thunderstorm activity will likely be occurring in extreme southeast New Mexico and western Texas. At this time, the highest potential for thunderstorms on Wednesday during the day will be maximized across the southern high Plains and northeastward into the central Plains and mid/upper Mississippi Valley. The focus of the convection in the southern high Plains is along the western periphery of a strong high pressure system centered in the Gulf states. This is in response to a plume of moisture being transported from the Gulf of Mexico up the Rio Grande Valley into eastern New Mexico then further north along the cold front. Thunderstorms will be very likely between 18Z and 00Z covering most of the eastern-half of New Mexico northeastward into the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles aided by the weak short-wave trough, strong heating during the late morning and early afternoon along with upslope forcing on the east side of the mountains. Thunderstorms will be slow to move to the east in advance of a stationary front at Copyright © 2010 Chesapeake Aviation Training, Inc. All rights reserved. | (704) 759-6601 | http://avwxworkshops.com the tail of the slow-moving cold front in the Midwest. Convective SIGMETs will likely cover this entire region most of the afternoon including eastern New Mexico and extreme western Texas northeast into southeastern Colorado and the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas. With a quasi-zonal flow over the state of New Mexico, it is also likely that a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) could develop in eastern New Mexico and western Texas lasting well into the night on Wednesday into early morning on Thursday. Clouds Skies should be relatively clear from the west coast of California through central New Mexico although some of the extreme coastal regions south of Los Angeles could see some brief low-level clouds in the morning. Expect clouds to thicken dramatically as you approach your fuel stop at Deming. Deming should remain clear below 12,000 feet with a slight risk of a thin broken to overcast sky at 15,000 feet developing during the late morning. East of Deming, marginal VFR with occasional IFR conditions will dominate eastern New Mexico and the entire western-half of Texas to include Sonora during the late morning and afternoon on Wedesday. Just southwest of Sonora, expect a good chance of IFR conditions in the afternoon. Icing and freezing level Freezing levels will be around 12,000 feet through southern New Mexico and western Texas. Flight at or below 12,000 feet should minimize exposure to structural icing. Copyright © 2010 Chesapeake Aviation Training, Inc. All rights reserved. | (704) 759-6601 | http://avwxworkshops.com