Queensland Chief Scientist annual report 2010 Queensland science: the tipping point Professor Peter Andrews Queensland Chief Scientist The position of Queensland Chief Scientist provides high level, strategic advice to the Premier and Cabinet on the role of science, research and innovation in achieving the State Government’s priorities. In doing so, a primary focus of the role is to provide advice on maximising the return on the Government’s investment in research and development (R&D). Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 2 Table of contents Executive summary ................................................................................................... 5 1.0 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 8 2.0 1998-2008: Smart State....................................................................................... 8 2.1 Queensland is doing things smarter…........................................................... 9 2.2 … in comparison to the rest of Australia ...................................................... 11 2.3 In summary .................................................................................................. 15 3.0 2008-2010: Tipping point .................................................................................. 16 3.1 The biotechnology story… ........................................................................... 17 3.2 …and its aftermath....................................................................................... 20 4.0 2010-2020: Tomorrow’s Queensland .............................................................. 21 4.1 Strong: using science to create a diverse economy powered by bright ideas .................................................................................................... 21 4.2 Green: using science to protect our lifestyle and environment .................... 25 4.3 Smart: using science to deliver world-class education and training ............ 27 4.4 Healthy: using science to make Queenslanders Australia's healthiest people ................................................................................................ 30 4.5 Fair: using science to support safe and caring communities ....................... 32 5.0 Recommendations ............................................................................................ 35 Annex ........................................................................................................................ 36 Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 3 Figures Figure 1. The state of Queensland science, 1998 and 2008 ............................... 9 Figure 2. Queensland’s research and development performance relative to Australia, 1998 and 2008 ............................................................................... 12 Figure 3. (a) Change in BERD intensity and (b) growth in BERD intensity, Queensland, Australia and OECD, 1998-99 to 2008-09 .................... 13 Figure 4. Biotechnology: from bricks to brains to business ............................... 17 Figure 5. Queensland high and medium-high technology manufacture exports as a proportion of total goods exports, 1998-99 to 2008-09 ................. 23 Figure 6. Sources of greenhouse gas emissions in Australian states, 2008 ....................................................................................................... 25 Figure 7. Queensland per capita greenhouse gas emissions, 1998 to 2008 ...................................................................................................... 26 Figure 8. Queensland STEM graduates as a proportion of all new university graduates, 2000 to 2008 .................................................................... 28 Figure 9. Queensland annual recurrent health expenditure per capita (constant prices), 1997-98 to 2007-08 ............................................................... 31 Figure 10. Proportion of Year 8 students at the low international benchmark on TIMSS ........................................................................................ 33 Tables Table 1. Research and development intensity of Queensland’s industries, 2008-09 .............................................................................................................. 21 Table 2. Percentage of Year 8 children achieving the advanced TIMSS benchmark ......................................................................................................... 28 Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 4 Executive summary 1. This annual report, the last from the present Queensland Chief Scientist, is timely for three reasons: research and industry data for the first decade of the Smart State Strategy, 1998-2008, are now largely available the global financial crisis, while leaving Queensland largely unscathed, has brought us to a tipping point with respect to our research and development (R&D) investment the Queensland Government has embarked on a hugely ambitious strategy to make Tomorrow's Queensland strong, green, smart, healthy and fair. 2. How much did our performance improve over the course of the decade? And how did we fare relative to the rest of Australia? In the period since the inception of the Smart State Strategy, Queensland’s image, particularly in national science and business sectors, has been transformed from that of a rural economy built on rocks and crops to that of a rapidly growing, innovative State with a clear commitment to research and innovation. Relative to Australia as a whole, Queensland's research and development performance is improving rapidly. Research and development outputs of our universities and medical research institutes (MRIs) are tracking well, as are early stage commercialisation outcomes. The relative increase in business expenditure on research and development (BERD) has also been impressive, but we are not yet nationally competitive in overall research and development intensity (gross expenditure on research and development - GERD) or the translation of research and development into later stage economic outcomes. State government investment in research and development has had a profound leveraging effect on the other elements of GERD. To grow BERD/GERD to nationally competitive levels, we will need to maintain the momentum of government investment in research and development, including focussed investment in the translation of research and development into economic outcomes. Our ability to effect that translation will, in turn, be critically dependent on the future availability of skilled science, technology, engineering and maths (STEM) professionals. 3. How effective was Queensland's investment in biotechnology? Should we repeat it? Between 2002 and 2008 the earnings of Queensland's biotechnology industry grew by a factor of eight. This, as well as the four-fold growth in the number of industry employees, exceeded the projections targeted in the 2005-2015 Strategic Plan for the Queensland biotechnology industry. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 5 By any measure, the biotechnology story has been a resounding success. But it is still a work in progress. To finish the job, we need to continue to invest in linkages between researchers, investors and end-users (industry, health services, markets) and in the training of the STEM teachers and researchers who will provide the skilled workforce to drive the future growth of the industry. More generally, the biotechnology story provides a crystal clear example of how sustained research investment and commitment by government can change the direction of a state, not just by diversification of the economy, but also socially and environmentally. 4. What research and development is needed to achieve the Tomorrow's Queensland ambitions? How do we drive it? We are at a critical tipping point for Queensland. Will we return to the State of ‘she’ll be right, mate’ or will we make the focussed research and development investments required to achieve a strong, green, smart, healthy and fair Queensland? Strong: The growth of knowledge-intensive industries in Queensland will depend directly on our investment in research and development. The Queensland Government has the opportunity to use the leveraging capacity of its research and development investment to focus the State’s overall research and development effort more effectively on building knowledge-intensive industries. Green: Continued research and development is the key to dealing with Queensland's environmental challenges. In particular, the demonstration and deployment of lowemission coal technologies and the creation of clean and renewable energy generation industries will be critical to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Smart: Increasing the number of teachers with specialist STEM knowledge, and the ability to convey this to the STEM researchers and workers of the future, is essential. To achieve this we need to ensure that students entering teacher training are among our best and brightest, and that their training includes in-depth discipline content, quality pedagogy and a broad understanding of employment opportunities in STEM disciplines. Healthy: Queensland's investment in biomedical research over the past decade provides us with a superb opportunity to build capacity in preventive medicine through studies in health economics, research aimed at reduction in chronic disease risk factors in children and teenagers, and the commercialisation of research on vaccines, biomarkers and biotherapeutics. Fair: We need to invest in research at the interface between the social, technological and health sciences in order to harvest best practice and implement it in service delivery by linking university research and development to government policy makers and non-government organisation (NGO) service providers. An iconic institute for social science research would give Queensland a leadership position in tackling the invidious cycle of social disadvantage. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 6 5. What do we need to do? Ongoing investment in research and development and its application will be essential if Queensland is to achieve its goals of being strong, green, smart, healthy and fair. Recommendation 1: Make balanced investments in research and development infrastructure. As demonstrated by the outcomes of the Queensland Government's investment in biotechnology and biomedical sciences, bricks attract brains. Application of a similar strategy in the social sciences will enable Queensland to take a leadership position in addressing social disadvantage. A similar opportunity exists in applied mathematics, which has the potential to transform many of Queensland's industries, as well as addressing some of our most pressing social and environmental issues. Recommendation 2: Make focussed investments in research and development projects linking research to industry and other end-users. Of equal importance is the linkage between brains and business. Focussed innovation funds provide opportunities to build new industries based on research and development, and to add value to old industries by using research and development to enhance productivity and develop related service industries. Similar linkages are necessary to ensure the application of research outputs to social and environmental challenges. Recommendation 3: Invest in building a high quality STEM teaching workforce Achieving the ambitions of Tomorrow's Queensland will require a strong pool of scientists and researchers, but the proportion of graduates in the STEM disciplines is falling. While not yet a pressing issue, the supply of STEM practitioners will become increasingly rate limiting with increased research and development investment, particularly in the business sector. The key factor in rebuilding the STEM pipeline is the quality of science and mathematics teachers in schools. Bottom line None of these recommendations will be easy to implement. They all require money, and money is in short supply. But money spent on research and development and education today will be the best investment government can make to ensure the money supply of Tomorrow’s Queensland. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 7 1.0 Introduction This is the final State of Science report from the present Queensland Chief Scientist, Professor Peter Andrews. It is timely for three reasons: 1. Research and industry data for the first decade of the Smart State Strategy, 1998-2008, are now largely available. For the first time, we can answer the questions: how much did our performance improve over the course of the decade? And how did we fare relative to the rest of Australia? 2. The global financial crisis, while leaving Queensland largely unscathed, has brought us to a tipping point. Which way should we go? Can we afford (not) to persevere with our investment in research and development and its conversion to economic, social and environmental outcomes? 3. The Queensland Government has embarked on a hugely ambitious strategy to make Tomorrow's Queensland strong, green, smart, healthy and fair. We need to know: what can science do to help deliver on these ambitions? And how can we facilitate it? This report, alongside the Queensland Government research and development expenditure report 2009-10 and the R&D Queensland annual report 2010 , answers these questions. Based on those answers, it recommends three essential investments that will determine the success or otherwise of Tomorrow's Queensland. 2.0 1998-2008: Smart State In 1998, the Queensland Government embarked on a strategy of innovation reform, to build on Queensland’s resource-driven economy and to develop a more diverse, knowledge-intensive and globally competitive state. Through the Smart State Strategy, the Queensland Government has invested or committed to invest $3.6 billion in building Queensland’s innovative capacity, including research infrastructure and networks, fellowships, and projects translating research findings into economic, environmental and community outcomes. The following is an assessment of Queensland's progress in the decade since the inception of the Smart State Strategy. In particular, it explores our progress with respect to the key inputs (research and development investment, STEM skills) and outcomes (knowledge, exports of knowledge-intensive goods and services) characteristic of a knowledge-intensive economy. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 8 2.1 Queensland is doing things smarter .... The key differences in the state of Queensland science between 1998 and 2008 are illustrated in Figure 1. Note that these data are expressed in relative terms (e.g. research and development expenditure as a percentage of GSP, scientific articles per capita) rather than absolute numbers (e.g. research and development expenditure in $'s, number of scientific articles). They therefore reflect the extent to which we are doing things smarter rather than increases resulting from economic or population growth. OUTCOMES INPUTS GERD (% of GSP) Knowledge-intensive goods exports (% of goods exports) Knowledge-intensive services exports (% of services exports) 2.50 BERD (% of GSP) 2.00 GovERD (% of GSP) 1.50 Patents per capita** 1.00 HERD (% of GSP) 0.50 University/MRI start-up companies per $100M R&D* STEM graduates (% of all graduates) 0.00 50% Income from University/MRI LOAs (% R&D expenditure)* 100% Scientists per 1,000 employed 150% University/MRI invention disclosures per $100M R&D* Article citation index (quality of articles) Business funding of HERD (% of HERD) 200% 250% Private equity investments (% of GDP)# Scientific articles per capita Qld 2008 Qld 1998 (baseline) ^ Unless otherwise stated, values for 2008-09 were expressed as a percentage of values for 1998-99, which were assigned a baseline of 100 per cent. # 2008-09 relative to 1999-00; * 2006 relative to 2000; ** 2006-07 relative to 1998-99. LOAs = licences, options and assignments. Source: See Annex for indicator values, descriptions and sources. Figure 1. The state of Queensland science, 1998 and 2008^ Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 9 Investment in research and development Gross expenditure on research and development (GERD) increased from 1.11 per cent to 1.59 per cent of Gross State Product (GSP).1 GERD is the primary measure of investment in research and development, including expenditure on research and development by businesses, state and federal governments, universities and non-profit organisations such as medical research institutes (MRIs). Business expenditure on research and development (BERD)2 more than doubled from 0.41 per cent to 0.95 per cent of GSP. Private equity investments have also more than doubled as a percentage of GSP, but GovERD (government expenditure on in-house research and development) intensity decreased.3 Strength of science base The number of scientists working in Queensland increased from 8,500 to 18,100 between 1997-98 and 2008-09. There have also been substantial increases in the quality and quantity of scientific articles, and increases in business funding of university research and development. Higher education expenditure on research and development (HERD) has also doubled in real terms. Despite a significant increase in the proportion of scientists in Queensland's workforce, the percentage of graduates with STEM degrees continues to fall. 4 From bricks to brains: build it and they will come The Queensland Brain Institute’s world-class facilities helped attract some of the world’s top neuroscientists to Queensland, with more than 70 per cent of the research group leaders new to Queensland and 25 per cent new to Australia.5 The $63 million state-of-the-art building has also acted as a powerful magnet to draw many outstanding young Australian scientists back from overseas positions. 1 R&D expenditure as a percentage of GSP is also referred to as R&D intensity. 2 BERD refers to business expenditure on in-house R&D. Investments by businesses in R&D undertaken by universities, for example, are captured under higher education R&D (HERD). Similarly, GovERD refers to R&D undertaken in-house by the Australian and state governments. 3 According to Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data, the decrease in GovERD intensity is due to a decrease in state government in-house R&D as a proportion of GSP. This is inconsistent with data collected directly from government departments by the Office of the Queensland Chief Scientist and published in the Queensland Government R&D Expenditure Report 2009-10 4 Given that Australia has a reasonably high number of researchers (8.5 researchers per 1,000 total employment, compared with the OECD average of 7.4 per 1,000), this may not appear to be of immediate concern. However, the number of researchers conducting R&D in the business sector in Australia, at 2.4 per 1,000 employed, is half the OECD average (4.8), and a third of that in Korea (7.1). As BERD rises, the short-fall in STEM graduates will be the major brake on Queensland's knowledge-intensive economy. Sources: ABS (2010) Research and Experimental Development, All Sector Summary, Australia, 2008-09 (Catalogue No 8112.0), Canberra; OECD.Stat, Main Science and Technology Indicators Database, accessed 29 October 2010. 5 Figures provided by the Queensland Brain Institute. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 10 Economic outcomes Economic returns from these activities have been mixed, with a significant increase in the proportion of exports due to knowledge-intensive services being partly offset by a reduction in the proportion of exports due to knowledge-intensive goods. This is likely to be due in part to the time lag between increases in research and development investments and downstream outcomes. However, the decrease in the proportion of exports due to knowledge-intensive goods suggests that there is a need to focus more closely on the linkages between research and industry. Tropical opportunities: ripe for the picking The global tropical economy is projected to reach US$40 trillion – twenty times Australia's projected economy – in 2025.6 As one of the few developed tropical regions with a strong base in tropical expertise, Queensland has an immense opportunity to tap into the rapidly growing markets of our developing tropical neighbours. Established in 2009 with support from the Queensland Government, TropLinks is a non-profit organisation that aims to develop a globally competitive tropical economy by establishing Queensland and Australia as a world leader in tropical science, knowledge and innovation. In 2009-10, over 200 researchers, companies, investors and entrepreneurs joined the TropLinks network, whose brokering activities now encompass seven nations, including Papua New Guinea, Guam, the Solomon Islands and the Philippines. Bottom line The key indicator of an innovative economy, GERD, is progressing well, driven by substantial increases in BERD. The shortfall in STEM graduates, while not yet rate limiting, will become so as BERD continues to grow. Ongoing government investment in the linkages between research and industry will be vital to build economic outcomes from our expanding research base. 2.2 ... in comparison to the rest of Australia In 1998, when the Queensland Government embarked on the Smart State Strategy, Queensland’s research and development and innovation record was poor by both Australian and international standards. Since then, growth in Queensland’s research and development performance has exceeded that of Australia as a whole for most indicators. These data, summarised in Figure 2, are once again expressed in per capita or per cent of GSP terms, thus eliminating the contribution of economic growth and increased population to Queensland’s performance. 6 Based on an estimated gross tropical world product (GTWP) of $12 trillion (calculated from the World Factbook, Central Intelligence Agency, www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/, accessed April 2005), and growth in GTWP and Queensland GSP over 20 years of 6% p.a. and 4.2% p.a., respectively. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 11 Qld relative to Aust 1998 Qld relative to Aust 2008 Australia (100%) 200% 300% Inputs: GovERD (% of GDP) BERD (% of GDP) Private equity investments (% of GDP)# Business funding of HERD (% of HERD) QLD < AUST HERD (% of GDP) STEM graduates (% of all graduates) Outputs: Scientists per 1,000 employed Scientific articles per capita Article citation index (quality of articles) QLD AUST Early stage outcomes: Patents per capita^^ University/MRI invention disclosures per $100M R&D* Income from University/MRI LOAs (% R&D expenditure)* University/MRI capital raised for research commercialisation (% R&D expenditure)** QLD > AUST University/MRI commercialisation equity holdings (% R&D expenditure)* University/MRI start-up companies formed per $100M R&D* Late stage outcomes: Knowledge-intensive goods exports (% of goods exports) Knowledge-intensive services exports (% of services exports) QLD << AUST ^ Unless otherwise stated, values for Queensland in 1998-99 and 2008-09 were expressed as a percentage of values for Australia in 1998-99 and 2008-09, respectively. Bars should be read relative to Australia (red line). Differences between blue and green bars represent changes in Queensland’s performance relative to Australia between 1998 and 2008, which may differ from changes in Queensland’s performance generally, depicted in Figure 1. # 1999-00 and 2008-09; * 2000 and 2006; ** 2004 and 2006; ^^ 1998-99 and 2006-07. Source: See Annex for indicator values, descriptions and sources. Figure 2. Queensland’s research and development performance relative to Australia, 1998 and 2008^ Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 12 Inputs Between 1998 and 2008, Queensland's BERD intensity grew significantly more (133 per cent) than that of Australia (105 per cent) or the OECD (12 per cent).7 Nevertheless, because we started from a much lower base, our 2008 BERD intensity still lagged behind both Australia and the OECD (Figure 3). Smoke and mirrors One view of the BERD data, illustrated in Figure 3a, suggests that Queensland is simply following Australia towards the OECD average BERD figure, without any discernible gain. The alternative view, illustrated in Figure 3b, demonstrates that Queensland's BERD intensity has grown significantly more rapidly than that of Australia over the course of the past decade. 140% 1.6% OECD 1.4% AUST 1.2% 1.0% QLD 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Growth in BERD intensity (%) BERD intensity (% of GDP) 1.8% QLD 120% 100% AUST 80% 60% 40% 20% OECD 0% -20% 0.0% (b) (a) Source: ABS (2010) Research and Experimental Development, Businesses, Australia, 2008-09 (Catalogue No 8104.0), Canberra; ABS (2009) Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, 2008-09 (Catalogue No 5220.0), Canberra; OECD.Stat, Main Science and Technology Indicators Database, accessed 29 October 2010. Figure 3. (a) Change in BERD intensity and (b) growth in BERD intensity, Queensland, Australia and OECD, 1998-99 to 2008-09 Business funding of HERD, which was already higher in Queensland compared with the rest of Australia in 1998, has increased to 6.6 per cent of total HERD funding, whereas for Australia overall it has decreased to 4.9 per cent. Private equity investment as a proportion of Queensland’s GSP has increased from 57 per cent to 84 per cent of the Australian figure. Despite increasing by 43 per cent over the decade, GERD intensity has increased at a slower rate than for Australia overall. 7 OECD data from OECD.Stat, Main Science and Technology Indicators Database, accessed 29 October 2010. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 13 Outputs The number of scientists per thousand employees has increased more rapidly in Queensland (14 per cent) than in Australia overall (12 per cent). The per capita output and impact (citation index) of scientific articles have both moved from below the Australian average to above the Australian average. Building competitive edge: Queensland ecoscience Queensland has become a hub of tropical ecoscience research. Of the 100 most cited ecoscientists in the world, seven come from Australia. Three are from The University of Queensland and two from James Cook University. 8 Consistent with this, Queensland’s universities have become more successful in securing competitive Commonwealth funding (National Health and Medical Research Council and Australian Research Council grants) in recent years, with total funding increasing at a rate 1.4 times that of the rest of Australia. 9 In contrast to these increases in research and development employment, funding and publications, the proportion of university graduates in STEM disciplines, which was well above the Australian average in 1998, has fallen 20 per cent to just below the Australian average. Early stage outcomes The commercialisation performance of Queensland’s universities and medical research institutes has increased at a rate greater than the rest of Australia, with income from licences, options and assignments (LOAs) and the value of research commercialisation equity holdings both increasing from below to above the Australian average. 8 Ecologists and environmental scientists were ranked by the total number of citations in the past ten years; Possingham, H. (9 August 2010) Capacity, opportunity and impediments. Speech presented at the R&D Queensland Forum on Ecosystems, Brisbane. 9 Compound annual growth rate 2002-2010 based on the total value of new grants awarded (including out years) by grant commencement year. Includes grants in the ARC National Competitive Grants Program Dataset (completed and new and ongoing projects), www.arc.gov.au/general/searchable_data.htm, and the NHMRC Research Funding Dataset 2001-2010, www.nhmrc.gov.au/grants/dataset/rmis/index.htm. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 14 Worth every penny: the benefits of investment The value of government investment in research and development is demonstrated by recent figures from Queensland’s research organisations. Every dollar invested by the Queensland Government in The University of Queensland’s Institute for Molecular Bioscience (IMB) has reaped a return of $4.50 - $6.50.10 And Queensland’s universities and medical research institutes contributed an estimated $3.5 billion to the economy in 2007 through sales of licensed technologies, accounting for over half of the national figure.11 Later stage outcomes Exports of knowledge-intensive goods and services have also grown more rapidly than the Australian average, but both measures remain low in absolute terms. Bottom line Queensland's overall research and development performance is improving rapidly relative to Australia as a whole. research and development outputs from universities and medical research institutes are tracking well, as are early stage commercialisation outcomes. The relative increase in BERD has also been impressive, but we are not yet nationally competitive in overall research and development intensity (GERD) or the translation of research and development into later stage economic outcomes. 2.3 In summary Because research and development is a long-term investment, the impact of Smart State investments committed since 2006 (including approximately 70 per cent of the Innovation and Smart Futures Funds) 12 will not yet be evident in the preceding data. Nevertheless, in the period since the implementation of the Smart State Strategy, Queensland’s image, particularly in national science and business sectors, has been transformed from that of a rural economy built on rocks and crops to that of a rapidly growing, innovative state with a clear commitment to research and innovation. 10 Mather, J. (2010) State investment a smart strategy, study shows. The Australian Financial Review, 20 September, p 29. 11 Based on data tables from: Department of Innovation, Industry, Science and Research, Australian Government (2009) National Survey of Research Commercialisation 2005-2007, Canberra. See: www.innovation.gov.au/Section/Innovation/Pages/TheNationalSurveyofResearchCommercialisation.aspx. 12 Deloitte (2010) Return on DEEDI’s Smart State innovation investment. Brisbane, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, Queensland Government. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 15 The future economic returns from this transformation will be driven primarily by further increases in BERD and GERD. However, as demonstrated by the data in the Queensland Government research and development expenditure report 2009-10, State Government investment in research and development has had, and will continue to have, a profound leveraging effect on the other elements of GERD. Leveraged investment: Callide Oxyfuel Project The $200 million Callide Oxyfuel Project, scheduled to open in 2011, will be the world’s first retrofitted power station using ‘bolt-on’ technology to capture around 20,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions over a nominal two to three year period.13 The demonstration project was established with the help of a $10 million commitment from the Queensland Government, $25 million from CS Energy, $50 million from the Commonwealth Government and a further $106 million from the Australian Coal Association, Japanese Government, and an international consortium of industry partners, including Xstrata Coal, IHI Corporation, J-POWER, Mitsui and Schlumberger.14 To grow BERD/GERD to nationally competitive levels, we will need to maintain the momentum of government investment in research and development, including focussed investment in translation of research and development into economic outcomes. Our ability to effect that translation will, in turn, be critically dependent on the future availability of skilled STEM professionals. 3.0 2008-2010: Tipping point In the wake of the global financial crisis, the wisdom of Queensland's commitment to long-term strategic investments, such as the Smart State Strategy, has been questioned. In particular, doubts have been expressed with respect to present and possible future returns on the State's investment in biotechnology. Here are the facts. 13 Callide Oxyfuel Project website, www.callideoxyfuel.com/, accessed 9 November 2010; Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation website, www.energyfutures.qld.gov.au/callide_oxyfuel.cfm, accessed 9 November 2010. 14 Information provided by Dr Chris Spero, CS Energy. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 16 3.1 The biotechnology story… From bricks ... Vision attracted capital: the initial investment of $15 million by the Queensland Government in the Institute for Molecular Bioscience at The University of Queensland leveraged a further $90 million from other sources, including $65 million from the Commonwealth Government and $10 million from Atlantic Philanthropies. Over the next ten years, further commitments of $1.2 billion by the Queensland Government in research and development infrastructure, research and industry collaborations, skills development and commercialisation capability leveraged a further $3.1 billion from these and other sources. 15 In October 2010, Premier Anna Bligh initiated the construction of the Translational Research Institute, turning the first sod for a $354 million collaborative venture that will house 700 researchers in cross-disciplinary teams dedicated to translating Queensland's research findings into new drugs and vaccines. Attract the best researchers Translate R&D into products & services Business Brains Bricks Build quality research Invest in R&D Figure 4. Biotechnology: from bricks to brains to business ...to brains... Capital attracted researchers: between 1998 and 2008 the number of scientists in Queensland increased by 113 per cent, from 8,500 to 18,100. Many of these scientists came to biotech, where the total number of employees increased from around 1,000 to 3,760 between 2002 and 2009.16 15 Based on total commitments from the Innovation Funds and Smart Futures Funds by the Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation, 1998-2010. 16 Full-time equivalents; based on data in: Department of State Development, Trade and Innovation (2005), Biotechnology – Setting New Horizons, Queensland Biotechnology Strategic Plan 2005-2010, Brisbane; Silvey, P. and Proctor, L. (2010) Queensland Life Science Industry Report 2010. Brisbane, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 17 More broadly, the emerging life sciences sector employed almost 20,000 people, of whom more than two-thirds were employed by industry. Their average salary was 25 per cent more than the overall average for employees in Queensland's industries. 17 ... to business... Researchers attracted industry: between 2002 and 2009 the earnings of Queensland's biotechnology industry grew by a factor of eight. This, and the four-fold growth in the number of industry employees, exceeded the projections targeted in the Queensland Biotechnology Strategic Plan 2005-2015.18 Connecting across the globe: Queensland Washington Alliance Group The Queensland Washington Alliance Group (QWAG) was established in 2006 to connect researchers in Queensland and Washington State and drive innovation and economic growth for both regions through joint scientific, commercial, and educational endeavours. Queensland researchers are now leading programs worth over $45 million, funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, in the areas of population health, dengue fever and banana biofortification.19 And the outcomes didn't stop there. Whereas in 1998 there were no drugs developed by the Queensland biotechnology industry in clinical trials, by 2008 more than 20 drugs were in clinical development.20 This capacity for drug discovery and development by research institutes and biotechnology companies is leading the pharmaceutical industry towards a new paradigm, where early stage research is largely outsourced, and the majority of new drugs are biologicals rather than chemicals. Both trends are evident in recent, and very important, investments by industry in Queensland. The first is the investment by Health Care Ventures in collaboration with Eli Lilly and the Queensland Government in a new $250 million early-stage investment fund to drive the development of new discoveries from universities and research institutes. The second is the partnership with DSM Biologics in Biopharmaceuticals Australia, the country's first scaled-up production facility for biological therapeutics and vaccines. 17 Silvey, P. and Proctor, L. (2010) Queensland Life Science Industry Report 2010. Brisbane, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation; 2009 estimates. 18 Based on data in: Department of State Development, Trade and Innovation (2005), Biotechnology – Setting New Horizons, Queensland Biotechnology Strategic Plan 2005-2010, Brisbane; Silvey, P. and Proctor, L. (2010) Queensland Life Science Industry Report 2010. Brisbane, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation. 19 Information provided by the Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation. 20 Silvey, P. and Proctor, L. (2010) Queensland Life Science Industry Report 2010. Brisbane, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 18 Gardasil: half a success story Gardasil, the vaccine invented by Professor Ian Frazer and the late Dr Jian Zhou to prevent cervical cancer, epitomises the opportunities for commercialising the innovative ideas emerging from Queensland's investment in biotechnology. To date, over 6 million vaccinations have been administered in Australia with total vaccinations worldwide exceeding 61 million.21 Arguably one of Australia’s most important scientific discoveries, the vaccine was first patented by UniQuest, but further development was undertaken overseas because of Australia's lack of capacity to clinically trial and commercialise the discovery – ultimately resulting in a loss of income for Queensland from the $5 billion in worldwide sales to date.22 Fortunately, the establishment in Brisbane of the Translational Research Institute (TRI), including Biopharmaceuticals Australia, will make this issue a thing of the past. TRI will be the only space in Australia where new biopharmaceuticals and treatments can be discovered, developed, clinically tested and manufactured in one location, ensuring that the rewards of Queensland discoveries can be reaped by the State. ... and beyond The importance of these investments to the development of knowledge-intensive industries in Queensland is further demonstrated by the latest figures available for Australia's export industries, which reveal that the pharmaceutical industry is now the largest high-technology export sector in Australia, with exports exceeding those of the heavily protected automotive industry.23 Based on our investments to date, the next significant development in the biotech industry for Queensland could very well be a drug manufacturing industry servicing Asia, where our brand is already strong. Could this be, as suggested by The Australian Financial Review, the antidote to Australia’s chronic trade deficit in manufactured goods, which in 2009-10 stands at $97 billion, all but negating the benefits of our $137 billion of mineral and energy exports? 24 Or will it simply be a source of well-paid jobs for Queenslanders when the resources boom slows? But the rewards of the government’s investment in biotech go beyond the pharmaceutical industry. There is a broader opportunity to build on Queensland’s success in biotech to fuel Queensland’s emerging industrial and animal biotech industry. Investments by the likes of biotech giant Pfizer Animal Health to acquire 21 Website of the Department of Health and Ageing, Therapeutic Goods Administration, Australian Government, www.tga.gov.au/alerts/medicines/gardasil.htm, accessed 9 November 2010. 22 Premier and Minister for the Arts, Queensland Government (2010) For the first time the battle against the world’s worst diseases can be fought in Australia, media release, 19 October. 23 ABS, Foreign Trade, unpublished data; provided by the Office of Economic and Statistical Research, Queensland Treasury. 24 Roberts, P. (2010) Drug industry needs a tonic. The Australian Financial Review, 10 September, p 56. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 19 Queensland-based Catapult Genetics25 and the role of global biotech leader, Syngenta in the Mackay Renewable Biocommodities Pilot Plant26 have the potential to build new industrial sectors, diversifying and strengthening the Queensland economy. Emerging biotech industries: Mackay Renewable Biocommodities Pilot Plant Queensland University of Technology’s $10 million Mackay Renewable Biocommodities Pilot Plant was established in 2010 with $3.1 million Queensland Government funding, and $5.2 million in Federal Government funding including $3.4 million under the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy and $1.8 million under the Super Science Initiative. Industry partners include global agribusiness company Syngenta, Farmacule and Mackay Sugar. 27 Positioning Queensland to take a lead role in the lucrative bioproducts industry, the pilot plant has the potential to reduce commercialisation costs for new technologies by over $10 million and the commercialisation timeframe by five years.28 3.2 …and its aftermath By any measure, the biotechnology story has been a resounding success. But it is still a work in progress. To finish the job, we need to continue to invest in linkages between researchers, investors and end-users (industry, health services, markets) and in the training of the STEM teachers and researchers who will provide the skilled workforce to drive the future growth of the industry. More generally, the biotechnology story provides a crystal clear example of how sustained research investment and commitment by government can change the direction of a state, not just by diversification of the economy, but also socially and environmentally. 25 Catapult Genetics website, www.catapultgenetics.com/, accessed 16 November 2010. 26 Syngenta Australia website, www.syngenta.com.au/start.aspx?UCCurrent=/News/UCNewsCorporateArchive.ascx&PageId=1015&MenuI d=15&News=CorporateArchive&NewsId=301, accessed 16 November 2010. 27 Premier and Minister for the Arts, Queensland Government (2010) New Mackay plant to lead the Australian charge into biofuels, media release, 9 July. 28 Put some sugar in your tank. Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering (ATSE) Focus, Number 163, August 10, p. 38. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 20 4.0 2010-2020: Tomorrow’s Queensland In September 2008, the Queensland Government embarked on a hugely ambitious program to make Queensland stronger, greener, smarter, healthier and fairer by 2020. Achieving these ambitions will require commitment not only from government, but also industry and the community. It will also be very much dependent on the quality of our research. 4.1 Strong: using science to create a diverse economy powered by bright ideas Knowledge-intensive industries are the drivers of modern economies, and the major part of the knowledge that underpins them is generated from research and development. The research and development intensity of industries is thus a key factor in economic growth. Research and development-intensive industries can be new industries (built on research and development in any area) or extensions of existing industries (based on research and development undertaken to improve their productivity). For example, of the major industries that undertake research and development in Queensland (Table 1), the two most research and development intensive are the professional, scientific and technical services industry and the mining industry. Table 1. Research and development intensity of Queensland’s industries, 2008-09^ Queensland Industry Mining Professional, scientific and technical services Manufacturing Construction Wholesale trade Financial and insurance services Electricity, gas, water and waste services Transport, postal and warehousing Agriculture, forestry and fishing Information media and telecommunications Australia 23,083 R&D intensity: BERD as % GVA 2.78% R&D intensity: BERD as % GVA 4.74% 510 11,225 4.54% 3.57% 475 354 66 62 62 46 30 18,971 18,627 10,883 15,552 4,629 16,388 4,924 2.51% 1.90% 0.61% 0.40% 1.34% 0.28% 0.60% 3.98% 1.03% 1.48% 1.64% 1.18% 0.35% 0.50% 26 5,359 0.49% 2.12% Qld Qld BERD ($M) GVA ($M) 643 ^ Includes industries with research and development expenditure over $20 million in 2008-09; values have been rounded; GVA = Gross Value Added. Source: ABS (2010) Research and Experiment Development, Businesses, Australia, 2008-09 (Catalogue No 8104.0), Canberra; ABS (2009) Australian National Accounts: State Accounts, 2008-09 (Catalogue No 5220.0), Canberra. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 21 The first of these is a developing services industry, in which research and development is the driver making a smart industry bigger. The second is a traditional industry where research and development is being employed extremely effectively to make a big industry smarter. Smart industries: mining services and technology in Queensland With over 300 companies, institutions and other organisations, the mining technology services and equipment (MTSE) sector is positioning Queensland at the forefront of a knowledge-intensive economy. Driven by investments in research and development infrastructure and facilities at the Queensland Centre for Advanced Technologies (QCAT), the Cooperative Research Centre for Mining, the Process Engineering and Light Metals Centre at Central Queensland University, The University of Queensland's Sustainable Minerals Institute, and the Minerals Characterisation Research Facility at the Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre, Queensland’s MTSE sector generated an estimated $2.8 billion in revenue in 2008-09, and accounted for over 40 per cent of the nation’s MTSE export sales.29 In other industries, such as ICT and financial and insurance services, the research and development intensity of Queensland's industries is less than 25 per cent of the Australian figure, and our economic share of these industries is correspondingly small. Tipping point A key measure of the knowledge intensity of an economy is the level of high and medium-high technology manufacture exports as a percentage of total goods exports. For Queensland, this figure is currently just under 5 per cent, compared to 12 per cent for Australia, 13 per cent for Norway, 62 per cent for the USA and 73 per cent for Korea (Figure 5). 29 Tedesco, L. and Haseltine, C. (2010) An economic survey of companies in the Australian mining technology services and equipment sector, 2006-07 to 2008-09 (ABARE-BRS research report 10.07). Canberra, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics – Bureau of Rural Sciences. The MTSE sector includes, “establishments that supply goods and services that embody specialist technology, innovation, intellectual property or knowledge specific to the minerals industry. This technology is defined to include the introduction or implementation of a new or significantly improved good, service or operational process.” Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 22 High/medium-high tech manufactures (% of total goods exports) Korea (73%) 70% USA (62%) 60% 50% 40% 30% Tomorrow's Qld? 20% Tipping Point 10% Norway (13%) Qld : business as usual 0% ^ International data refer to 2008. Source: ABS, Foreign Trade, unpublished data; OECD Stan Indicators Database www.oecd.org/sti/stan/indicators, accessed 29 October 2010. Figure 5. Queensland high and medium-high technology manufacture exports as a proportion of total goods exports, 1998-99 to 2008-09^ We are at a critical tipping point for Queensland. Will the proportion of Queensland's exports derived from knowledge-intensive manufactured goods remain among the lowest in the world, with inevitable impacts on our ability to ride the ebb and flow of our resources industries, or will we make the focussed investments in research and development required to build new knowledge-intensive industries? Where next? The growth of knowledge-intensive industries in Queensland will depend directly on our investment in research and development. Whilst GERD in Queensland is low by OECD standards, it is nevertheless very significant ($3.9 billion per annum).30 The Queensland Government, which contributes 10 per cent of the State's research and development budget,31 has the opportunity to use the leveraging capacity of its research and development investment to focus the State’s overall research and development effort more effectively on building knowledge-intensive industries. 30 GERD of 1.59% of GSP ($3.9 billion) for Queensland in 2008-09 versus an OECD average in 2008 of 2.33% of GDP; ABS (2010) Research and Experimental Development, All Sector Summary, Australia, 2008-09 (Catalogue No 8112.0), Canberra; OECD.Stat, Mains Science and Technology Indicators Database, accessed 29 October 2010. 31 Based on an investment of $384 million in 2008-09 by the Queensland Government (see Queensland Government R&D Expenditure Report 2009-10) and a GERD of $3.9 billion. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 23 The impact of such a focussed research and development investment would be to achieve a more sustainable balance between the State’s primary, secondary and tertiary industries. In particular, it would make: our smart industries bigger by leveraging investment in new technologies, e.g. biotech and cleantech our big industries smarter by helping them to create research and development-based goods and services e.g. agriculture and transport. From bright ideas to business outcomes: Australian Institute for Commercialisation Established in 2002 as part of the Smart State Strategy, the independent and not-forprofit Australian Institute for Commercialisation (AIC) provides innovation and collaboration services to convert research and innovative ideas into commercial success. Over the past five years, the TechFast and Ideas2Market programs delivered by the AIC have contributed an estimated $29-59 million to Queensland’s annual economic output, and $88-221 million to Australia’s economy, a return of between $11.40 and $32.50 for every $1 invested in these programs.32 Of equal importance is the opportunity to build smarter industries based on investment in enabling sciences and technologies. For example, the financial services and insurance industry is heavily dependent on the quantitative skills of applied mathematics and statistics, but Australia's stock of applied mathematicians is dwindling fast. An iconic investment in the area of applied mathematics would give Queensland a position of national leadership in industries such as finance and insurance and transport and logistics, while also attracting and training the applied mathematicians required to address some of our most pressing social and environmental needs. 32 AECgroup (2010) Economic Impact Assessment: AIC Innovation and Collaboration Programs, Final Report, November 2010. Brisbane, Australian Institute for Commercialisation. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 24 4.2 Green: using science to protect our lifestyle and environment The preservation of Queensland’s environment is fundamental to our way of life and cultural heritage, but population and economic growth are putting increasing pressure on Queensland’s unique ecosystems. Our challenge is to ensure a sustainable balance between these social and economic demands and the needs of the environment. The key factor is energy. On the one hand energy, and particularly coal, is a vital part of our economy. On the other hand, energy consumption drives 60 per cent of Queensland's GHG emissions (Figure 6), which are among the highest in the world. Greenhouse Gas Emissions (CO2-e, Gg) 180 160 Land Use, Land Use Change, Forestry 140 Other 120 Waste 100 80 Agriculture 60 Industrial Processes 40 20 Energy 0 -20 NSW QLD VIC WA SA NT TAS ACT Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System (AGEIS), Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, Australian Government, http://ageis.climatechange.gov.au/SGGI.aspx#. Figure 6. Sources of greenhouse gas emissions in Australian states, 2008 Tipping point Over the past five years Queensland's per capita GHG emissions have plateaued, perhaps even begun to decline, but they remain approximately one-third higher than those of the United States and more than 2.5 times those of Korea and Norway (Figure 7). Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 25 Per capita GHG emissions (CO 2 -e, tonnes) 35 Tipping Point 30 25 Qld : business as usual USA (22.7 t) 20 Tomorrow's Qld? 15 10 Korea (11.6 t) / Norway (11.3 t) 5 0 ^ Excludes land use, land use change and forestry component of emissions. International data refer to 2008 per capita GHG emissions in the case of the USA and Norway, and 2001 emissions in the case of Korea. Source: Australian Greenhouse Emissions Information System (AGEIS), Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, Australian Government, http://ageis.climatechange.gov.au/SGGI.aspx#; ABS (2010) Australian Demographic Statistics, Mar 2010 (Catalogue No 3101.0), Canberra; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Data Interface, http://unfccc.int/di/DetailedByParty.do, accessed 29 October 2010; OECD.Stat, Economic Indicators for Main Science and Technology Indicators Database, accessed 29 October 2010. Figure 7. Queensland per capita greenhouse gas emissions, 1998 to 2008^ We are at a critical tipping point for Queensland. Will Queensland's GHG emissions remain among the highest in the world, with potentially devastating impacts on many of our unique flora and fauna, or will we make the focussed investments in clean and renewable energy research and energy efficiency technologies needed to reduce our GHG emissions? Where next? Continued research and development is the key to dealing with these challenges. In particular, the demonstration and deployment of low emission coal technologies and the creation of clean and renewable energy generation industries will be critical to reducing GHG emissions. These outcomes will not be achieved by individual companies, governments, universities or research organisations. They require a shared vision and coordinated effort. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 26 Clean energy: Sustainable Aviation Fuel Initiative The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Initiative, led by Professor Lars Nielsen of The University of Queensland’s Australian Institute for Bioengineering and Nanotechnology (AIBN), is an aviation biofuel research consortium consisting of Queensland and international research and industry partners. The Initiative, which is focussed on the production of synthetic paraffinic kerosenes (bio-SPK or bio-jet-fuel) from sugarcane, oilseed trees and algae, has matched Queensland Government funding with industry investment from Boeing, Virgin Blue and US energy company, Amyris.33 4.3 Smart: using science to deliver world-class education and training The 2006 International Survey of Adult Literacy and Life Skills measured the proportion of the populations of various countries who were ready and able to participate in a knowledge-intensive economy. In Australia, 46 per cent of the population did not possess sufficient prose literacy to function in a knowledge-intensive economy, 53 per cent did not possess sufficient numeracy to do so, and 70 per cent did not possess sufficient problem solving skills.34 So much for adults. What about our children? Table 2 shows data from the latest Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), conducted in 2007. When it comes to producing the smart scientists and mathematicians of the future, Australia, like the United States, lags far behind the developing economies of Singapore and Korea. Queensland, in turn, ranks fourth of the eight Australian states and territories.35 33 Premier and Minister for the Arts, Queensland Government (2010) The green future of the sky – planes powered by algae, media release, 4 May. 34 ABS (2008) Adult Literary and Life Skills Survey, Summary Results, Australia, 2006 (Catalogue No 4228.0), Canberra. 35 Thomson, S., Wernet, N., Underwood, C. and Nicholas, M. (2008) TIMSS 07: Taking a closer look at mathematics and science in Australia. Melbourne, Australian Council for Educational Research. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 27 Table 2. Percentage of Year 8 children achieving the advanced TIMSS benchmark Country Science Mathematics Singapore 32% 40% Republic of Korea 17% 40% United States of America 10% 6% Australia 8% 6% Norway 2% 0% Source: Thomson, S., Wernet, N., Underwood, C. and Nicholas, M. (2008) TIMSS 07: Taking a closer look at mathematics and science in Australia. Melbourne, Australian Council for Educational Research. Other international studies reflect similar differences in mathematical and scientific literacy, interest in science, and the proportion of students undertaking STEM studies in the final years of school or at university. As is evident in Figure 8, the proportion of STEM graduates in Queensland has been falling steadily for the past ten years. STEM graduates as % of university graduates 40% 35% Korea (32.8%) 30% Tomorrow's Qld? 25% Tipping Point 20% 15% Norway (15.4%) USA (14.9%) 10% Qld : business as usual 5% 0% ^ For all university award completions; data include the fields of Natural and Physical Sciences, Information Technology, Engineering and Related Technologies, and Architecture and Building, but not Health or Agriculture, Environmental and Related Studies, in line with the OECD definition of Science and Engineering graduates. International data refer to 2008. Source: Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations (DEEWR), Australian Government, Higher Education Statistics Collection, www.deewr.gov.au/HigherEducation/Publications/HEStatistics/Publications/Pages/Home.aspx; OECD.Stat, Education and Training Database, accessed 29 October 2010. Figure 8. Queensland STEM graduates as a proportion of all new university graduates, 2000 to 2008^ Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 28 Tipping point The USA, acknowledging that science and technology has propelled most of the increase in USA per capita income in the past century,36 has recently recognised that its poor performance in STEM education is of vital concern. The administration has responded decisively, even in the face of a difficult fiscal situation, by allocating $4.4 billion to educational reform, focussed on improving teacher quality. Queensland is at an equally critical tipping point. Will the proportion of students studying STEM disciplines at school and university continue to fall, with inevitable consequences for the diversification of our economy and the achievement of our social and environmental goals, or will we make the investments in teacher quality and training necessary to reverse the decline? Where next? The major factor influencing the proportion of STEM graduates is quality of schooling. Teachers with specialist content and pedagogical knowledge in their disciplines have the capacity to inspire students to do well and continue in their studies. Skills for our future: Queensland Academies Developed as part of the Smart State program, the $21 million Queensland Academy for Science, Mathematics and Technology (QASMT) and the $28 million Queensland Academy for Health Sciences (QAHS) enable students with an aptitude for science, maths, technology or research to prepare for careers within these disciplines.37 Featuring state-of-the-art research and science teaching facilities, the Academies offer important partnerships with The University of Queensland (QASMT) and Griffith University (QAHS). Of those completing Year 12 at QAHS in 2009, almost 94 per cent continued to university (nine receiving scholarships) with 12 students fast tracked into second year university health courses. 38 Unfortunately, not all students can attend the Academies, and not all teachers have the necessary knowledge and skills to inspire them: an estimated 40 per cent of Queensland’s public secondary schools have mathematics programs being taught by teachers who are not fully qualified in the curriculum or teaching area. The situation is similar for the sciences, with more than 30 per cent of schools having programs taught by teachers who are not fully qualified. 39 36 Lander, E. S. and Gates Jr, S. J. (2010) Prepare and Inspire. Science, Vol 330 (6001):151. 37 See: www.qldacademies.eq.edu.au/index.html. 38 Queensland Academy for Health Sciences, 2009 School Annual Report; 2010 Next Step Survey: http://qahs.eq.edu.au/index.php/annual-report/. 39 Australian Education Union (2009) State of Our Schools Survey 2009; 1,473 public school principals responded to the nation-wide survey, 18% and 6.9% of whom were from secondary or combined primary/secondary schools, respectively. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 29 Increasing the number of teachers with specialist STEM knowledge, and the ability to convey this to the STEM researchers and workers of the future, is essential. To achieve this we need to ensure that students entering teacher training are among our best and brightest, and that their training includes in-depth discipline content, quality pedagogy and a broad understanding of the employment opportunities in STEM disciplines. 4.4 Healthy: using science to make Queenslanders Australia's healthiest people Over the course of the 20th century the life span of Australians has increased by 20 years,40 but this has been at a huge cost. Eighty per cent of aged Australians – those in the process of living that extra 20 years – suffer from chronic disease, and 70 per cent of the total health costs of this country are now due to largely preventable chronic disease.41 The proportion of Queensland adults with significant risk factors for chronic disease include: heavy drinkers (12 per cent of females and 11.5 per cent of males), daily smokers (14 per cent of females and 17.4 per cent of males), overweight and obese people (48 per cent of females and 63 per cent of males).42 The lifestyles that these numbers reflect are in large part responsible for the escalating costs of chronic disease. Tipping point Driven in part by population growth, Queensland's recurrent health expenditure is growing at the fastest rate of all Australian states: 6 per cent between 1997-98 and 2007-08, versus 5.1 per cent for Australia overall (Figure 9).43 40 ABS (2004) Measures of Australia’s Progress 2004 (Catalogue No 1370.0), Canberra. 41 Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2006) Chronic diseases and associated risk factors in Australia, 2006, Canberra. 42 Pollard G., White D. and Harper C. (2009) Self-Reported Health Status: Queensland 2009 Survey Report. Brisbane, Queensland Health. 43 Equal highest rate with Western Australia; Australian Institute for Health and Welfare (2009) Health expenditure Australia 2007-08 (Health and Welfare Expenditure Series No 37), Canberra. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 30 Recurrent health expenditure (A$ per person) USA (A$10,352) 10,000 Qld : business as usual 8,000 Norway (A$6,763) 6,000 Tipping Point Tomorrow's Qld? 4,000 2,000 Korea (A$2,397) 0 ^ Values in 2007-08 prices. International comparisons refer to total health expenditure per capita, including capital expenditure, 2007. Source: Australian Institute for Health and Welfare (2009) Health expenditure Australia 2007-08 (Health and Welfare Expenditure Series No 37), Canberra. Figure 9. Queensland annual recurrent health expenditure per capita (constant prices), 1997-98 to 2007-08^ We are at a critical tipping point for Queensland. Will we allow recurrent health expenditure to continue to rise towards the level of Norway or even the USA, with inevitable consequences for the quality of all of our lives, or will we make the investments in the prevention or early detection and treatment of disease necessary to reverse escalating health costs? Where next? An investment of $1 per annum in preventive medicine has been shown to yield returns of roughly $5.60 per annum within five years of the original investment.44 More specifically, a recent report found that if the investment in Australian health and medical research by government and the business community was maintained according to historical levels over the next 15 years, then revenues of $73.7 billion could be generated along with $150 billion in savings due to health benefits. 45 Queensland's investment in biomedical research over the past decade provides us with a superb opportunity to build capacity in preventive medicine at three levels through: 44 Levi, J., Segal, L. M. and Juliano, C. (2009) Prevention for a Healthier America; Investments in Disease Prevention Yield Significant Savings, Stronger Communities. Washington DC, Trust for America’s Health. 45 Lateral Economics (2010) The Economic Value of Australia’s Investment in Health and Medical Research: Reinforcing the Evidence for Exceptional Returns. Melbourne, Research Australia. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 31 studies in health economics, understanding where we can intervene in the prevention or early detection of chronic disease to make the biggest economic impact further research at the interface of behaviour/education/health aimed at reduction in chronic disease risk factors in children and teenagers commercialisation of research on vaccines to prevent disease, biomarkers and other diagnostics capable of revealing early indications of disease, and biotherapeutics that can be used for its early treatment. Exporting smart health solutions: Triple P-Positive Parenting Program Developed by the Parenting and Family Support Centre at The University of Queensland, the Triple P-Positive Parenting Program is an evidence-based parenting and family support strategy used throughout the world to prevent behavioural, emotional and developmental problems in children. With over 142 evaluation studies involving 43 institutions, 16 countries and 227 researchers, the program has built a global network of research collaborations, including in public health areas such as the parenting of obese children and children with chronic illnesses. To date, the program has been adapted for use in 20 countries around the globe and has helped six million children and their families.46 4.5 Fair: using science to support safe and caring communities Queensland’s Indigenous population experiences social disadvantage on multiple levels including shorter life-spans, lower educational attainment and lesser employment outcomes. But social disadvantage is by no means restricted to the Indigenous population. Consider two Brisbane suburbs, about 10 km apart, both with very small Indigenous populations. In Suburb A, 70 per cent of the population has at least Year 12 education. In Suburb B, 60 per cent of the population have Year 10 education or less, and just 30 per cent have completed Year 12. Family incomes in Suburb A average three times those of Suburb B; unemployment in Suburb B is 11 times Suburb A; crime rates, chronic disease indicators, teenage maternity and hospitalisations from mental illness are all substantial factors in Suburb B, but barely show up in Suburb A. From poor education and teenage maternity to unemployment and chronic disease, the cycle of disadvantage continues over generations of welfare dependency.47 46 Information sourced from Prof Matt Sanders and the Triple P Positive Parenting Program website, www.triplep.net/cicms/assets/pdfs/pg1as100gr5so197.pdf, www17.triplep.net/?pid=58, accessed 9 November 2010. 47 Based on analysis of Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) 2006 data for Brisbane suburbs by the Department of Communities, Queensland Government. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 32 Tipping point Proportion of Yr 8 students at low benchmark At the heart of this cycle of social disadvantage is the level of educational achievement. Poor education leads to poorer outcomes. Internationally, there is a direct correlation between achievement levels in the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) and socio-economic levels.48 Yet the proportion of Queensland children with the lowest attainment levels in international surveys such as TIMSS is rising (Figure 10). 40% Qld : business as usual Norway (37%) 35% Tipping Point 30% 25% USA (25%) 20% 15% 10% Tomorrow's Qld? Korea (8%) 5% 0% ^1999 and 2003 data refer to Australia; 2007 value is common to Australia and Queensland; International data refer to 2007 results. Source: Thomson, S., Wernet, N., Underwood, C. & Nicholas, M. (2008) TIMSS 07: Taking a closer look at mathematics and science in Australia. Melbourne, Australian Council for Educational Research. Figure 10. Proportion of Year 8 students at the low international benchmark on TIMSS^ We are at a critical tipping point for Queensland. Will the socially disadvantaged proportion of our society continue to experience the consequences of poorer educational outcomes, with ensuing costs to society, or will we make the investments in research at the interface of the social, technological and health sciences required to disrupt the cycle of social disadvantage? Where next? The key element in breaking the cycle of social disadvantage is education but it, in turn, depends heavily on a number of other social factors. 48 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) Database: PISA2003, Country Profile for Australia, Relationship between student performance and socio-economic background, Mathematics, http://pisacountry.acer.edu.au/index.php. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 33 Change for the better: the story of Cherbourg Primary School The transformation that was undertaken by Chris Sarra as Principal for Cherbourg Primary School from 1998 to 2005 through the adoption of a ‘Strong and Smart’ philosophy has provided a model for revolutionising Indigenous and socially disadvantaged education. Chris focused on broad attitudinal change to address endemic problems such as high absenteeism and low academic achievement by creating a shared vision for the school in collaboration with community stakeholders and introducing practical measures for specific issues. As a result, regular attendance grew from 50 per cent to 95 per cent between 1997 and 2002. Academic performance also improved, with the proportion of Year 2 students requiring additional assistance in literacy or numeracy decreasing from 93 per cent to 43 per cent and 80 per cent to 46 per cent, respectively.49 We need to invest in research at the interface between the social, technological and health sciences in order to harvest best practice and implement it in service delivery, to link university research and development to government policy makers and NGO service providers, and to build skills/capability. However, as noted in the Queensland Government expenditure report 2009-10, research and development in the social sciences, including both community wellbeing and education and training, attracts relatively small amounts of research and development funding. A proposal for the Queensland Government to invest in a virtual social science innovation centre is potentially extremely important. Using this investment as a starting point, leveraged funds from Commonwealth and philanthropic sources could be used to construct a physical institute that would act as a beacon for social science researchers around the globe, and give Queensland a leadership position in tackling the invidious cycle of social disadvantage. 49 Based on the Education Queensland Review of Cherbourg State School May 2002. What Works. The Work Program: www.whatworks.edu.au/3_3_14.htm#outcomes. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 34 5.0 Recommendations Ongoing investment in research and development and its application will be essential if Queensland is to achieve its goals of being strong, green, smart, healthy and fair. Recommendation 1: Make balanced investments in research and development infrastructure. As demonstrated by the outcomes of the Queensland Government's investment in biotechnology and biomedical sciences, bricks attract brains. Application of a similar strategy in the social sciences will enable Queensland to take a leadership position in addressing social disadvantage. A similar opportunity exists in applied mathematics, which has the potential to transform many of Queensland's industries, as well as addressing some of our most pressing social and environmental issues. Recommendation 2: Make focussed investments in research and development projects linking research to industry and other end-users. Of equal importance is the linkage between brains and business. Focussed innovation funds provide opportunities to build new industries based on research and development, and to add value to old industries by using research and development to enhance productivity and develop related service industries. Similar linkages are necessary to ensure the application of research outputs to social and environmental challenges. Recommendation 3: Invest in building a high quality STEM teaching workforce Achieving the ambitions of Tomorrow's Queensland will require a strong pool of scientists and researchers, but the proportion of graduates in the STEM disciplines is falling. While not yet a pressing issue, the supply of STEM practitioners will become increasingly rate limiting with increased research and development investment, particularly in the business sector. The key factor in rebuilding the STEM pipeline is the quality of science and mathematics teachers in schools. Bottom line None of these recommendations will be easy to implement. They all require money, and money is in short supply. But money spent on research and development and education today will be the best investment government can make to ensure the money supply of Tomorrow’s Queensland. Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 35 ANNEX Research and development performance indicators for Queensland and Australia, 1998 and 2008 Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 36 Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 1998-09 (1998) 2008-09 (2008) Indicator 2008-09 relative to 1998-09 1998 2008 QLD AUST QLD AUST QLD AUST QLD/ AUST QLD/ AUST GERD (% of GDP) 1.11% 1.43% 1.59% 2.21% 1.43 1.54 0.77 0.72 BERD (% of GDP) 0.41% 0.66% 0.95% 1.34% 2.32 2.04 0.62 0.71 GovERD (% of GDP) 0.32% 0.33% 0.20% 0.27% 0.62 0.82 0.98 0.74 HERD (% of GDP) 0.37% 0.41% 0.44% 0.53% 1.18 1.29 0.91 0.83 STEM degrees (% of degrees awarded) 23.1% 21.5% 18.55% 19.10% 0.80 0.89 1.07 0.97 7.03 7.34 8.04 8.24 1.14 1.12 0.96 0.98 5.71% 5.31% 6.60% 4.95% 1.16 0.93 1.07 1.33 0.19% 0.33% 0.43% 0.52% 2.31 1.57 0.57 0.84 Scientific articles per capita 883 974 1407 1402 1.59 1.44 0.91 1.00 Article citation index (quality of articles) 1.63 1.74 2.8 2.68 1.72 1.54 0.94 1.05 30.50 15.79 24.46 16.15 0.80 1.02 1.93 1.51 1.81 2.86 2.30 1.54 1.27 0.54 0.63 1.49 University/MRI capital raised for research commercialisation (% R&D expenditure)** 5.96 3.42 4.17 1.47 0.70 0.43 1.74 2.84 University/MRI research commercialisation equity holdings (% R&D expenditure)* 2.59 2.90 5.11 2.48 1.97 0.86 0.89 2.06 University/MRI start-up companies per $100M R&D expenditure* 0.82 1.14 0.74 0.56 0.90 0.49 0.73 1.32 461.69 465.42 473.43 518.48 1.03 1.11 0.99 0.91 18.23% 39.05% 38.83% 57.56% 2.13 1.47 0.47 0.67 5.43% 18.07% 4.49% 10.95% 0.83 0.61 0.30 0.41 Scientists per 1,000 employed Business funding of HERD (% of HERD) Private equity investments (% of GDP) # University/Medical Research Institute (MRI) invention disclosures per $100M R&D expenditure* Income from University/MRI Licences, Options and Assignments (LOAs) (% R&D expenditure)* Patents per capita^ Knowledge-intensive services exports (% of services exports) Knowledge-intensive goods exports (% of goods exports) # 1999-00 and 2008-09 (rather than 1998-09 and 2008-09); * 2000 and 2006; ** 2004 and 2006; ^ 1998-99 and 2006-07 37 Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 Indicator Description Source GERD (% of GDP) Gross expenditure on R&D by all sectors as a proportion of Gross State Product (GSP) or Gross Domestic Product (GDP). ABS Catalogue No 8112.0, 2008-09; ABS Catalogue No 5220.0, 2008-09 BERD (% of GDP) Business expenditure on R&D as a proportion of GSP or GDP; refers to in-house R&D only; excludes expenditure by the business sector on R&D performed by other sectors; includes funds provided by other sources for in-house R&D. ABS Catalogue No 8104.0, 2008-09; ABS Catalogue No 5220.0, 2008-09 GovERD (% of GDP) Government (including state and federal governments) expenditure on R&D as a proportion of GSP or GDP; refers to inhouse R&D only; excludes government expenditure on R&D performed by other sectors; includes funds provided by other sources for in-house R&D. ABS Catalogue No 8109.0, 2008-09; ABS Catalogue No 5220.0, 2008-09 HERD (% of GDP) Higher expenditure on R&D as a proportion of GSP or GDP; refers to in-house R&D only; excludes expenditure by the higher education sector on R&D performed by other sectors; includes funds provided by other sources for in-house R&D. ABS Catalogue No 8111.0, 2008; ABS Catalogue No 5220.0, 2008-09 STEM graduates (% of all graduates) University award completions in the fields of Natural & Physical Sciences, Information Technology, Engineering & Related Technologies, and Architecture & Building, as a proportion of all new university award completions. STEM graduates do not include graduates in the areas of Health or Agriculture, Environmental & Related Studies, in line with the OECD definition of Science and Engineering graduates. Higher Education Statistics Collection, Department of Employment, Education and Workplace Relations, Australian Government Scientists per 1,000 employed Scientists have been defined under ANZSCO 2006 as 234 - Natural & Physical Science Professionals, including Agricultural & Forestry Scientists (2341), Chemists & Food and Wine Scientists (2342), Environmental Scientists (2343), Geologists & Geophysicists (2344), Life Scientists (2345), Medical Laboratory Scientists (2346), Veterinarians (2347), and Other Natural & Physical Science Professionals (2349); based on total persons employed aged 15 years and over. ABS Catalogue No 6291.0.55.001, Sept 2010; ABS Catalogue No 6291.0.55.003, May 2009 (analysis of scientists numbers was provided by Queensland Treasury) Business funding of HERD (% of HERD) Proportion of total HERD sourced from the business sector. ABS Catalogue No 8111.0, 2008 Private equity investments (% of GDP) Private equity investments – including venture capital and later stage private equity – are high risk capital invested in businesses with prospects of rapid growth or high rates of returns. Data refer to private equity investment in investee companies by location of investee company head office as a proportion of GSP or GDP. ABS Catalogue No 5678.0, 2008-09; ABS Catalogue No 5220.0, 2008-09 Scientific articles per capita The number of scientific articles is a primary indicator of the productivity of university and MRI R&D (although articles are also published by other sectors). Data refer to the total number of peer-reviewed articles (only) in the Thomson Reuters Science Citation Index and Social Science Citation Index databases with a publication year (PY) of 1998 or 2008 and with 'Qld' or 'Queensland' in the address, or 'Aust' or 'Australia' in the address, for Queensland and Australia, respectively. Thomson and Reuters Science Citation Index and Social Science Citation Index, accessed 23 October 2010; ABS Catalogue No 3101.0, March 2010 Article citation index (quality of articles) Citation index refers to the number of times a scientific article is cited by other publications, and reflects the impact of an article. The average citation index of articles is an indicator primarily of the quality of university and MRI R&D. To allow the comparison of the citation index of articles published in 1998 with those published in 2008, the number of citations in the year of publication and the year following the year of publication for the articles from the above Thomson Reuters database searches were used (e.g. for 1998 article citation index values, the total number of citations in 1998 and 1999 for articles published in 1998 was divided by the total number of articles published in 1998 for each of Queensland and Australia). Thomson and Reuters Science Citation Index and Social Science Citation Index, accessed 23 October 2010 38 Queensland Chief Scientist Annual report 2010 Indicator Description Source University/Medical Research Institute (MRI) invention disclosures per $100M R&D expenditure^^ An invention disclosure is when a novel device, material or method resulting from R&D is made known to research management of an organisation, usually the first step before securing intellectual property (IP) rights. Invention disclosures are one of several measures of the intellectual property activity of universities and MRIs. Income from University/MRI Licences, Options and Assignments (LOAs) (% R&D expenditure)^^ Licences, options and assignments (LOAs) are formalised IP agreements between two parties. The value of university and MRI LOAs reflects the value of IP generated through R&D. National Surveys of Research Commercialisation, full data set, Department of Innovation, Industry, Science and Research, Australian Government; ABS Catalogue No 8109.0, 2008-0;9 ABS Catalogue No 8111.0, 2008. As above University/MRI capital raised for research commercialisation (% R&D expenditure)^^ Capital raising for R&D commercialisation includes venture capital investment, UniSeed funding and funds raised through public offerings. It is one of several measures of the potential business value of IP generated from R&D. As above University/MRI research commercialisation equity holdings (% R&D expenditure)^^ Research commercialisation equity holdings refer to the value of equity held by universities and MRIs in start-up companies. It is one of several measures of the potential business value of IP generated from R&D. As above University/MRI start-up companies per $100M R&D expenditure^^ The formation of start-up companies is one outlet of R&D commercialisation for universities and MRIs. The number of start-up companies formed in a year is one of several measures of the potential business value of IP generated from R&D. As above Patents per capita A patent is a right granted for a novel device, substance or method, giving the owner exclusive right to commercially exploit the invention. Patents, here, refer to patent filings (including innovation patents) at the Patent Office of IP Australia, based on the state of the first listed applicant. It includes patents filed by all sectors performing R&D. IP Australia datasets, accessed 1 December 2008; ABS Catalogue No 3101.0, March 2010 Knowledge-intensive services exports (% of services exports) Knowledge-intensive services exports as a proportion of all services exports is one measure of the knowledge intensity of an economy. Knowledge-intensive services include: Education-related Services; Construction; Insurance & Pension Services; Financial Services; Charges for the Use of Intellectual Property; Telecommunication, Computer & Information Services; Other Business Services; Personal, Cultural & Recreation Services; and Government Goods & Services. ABS Catalogue No 5368.055.003 (analysis of knowledge-intensive services provided by Queensland Treasury) Knowledge-intensive goods exports (% of goods exports) Exports of high and medium-high technology manufactures (referred to here as knowledge-intensive goods) as a proportion of total goods exports is a measure of the knowledge intensity of an economy. Knowledge-intensive goods include ANZSIC 1993 codes: 2212, 2531-2535, 2541-2547, 2549, 2769, 2811-2813, 2819, 2823, 2824, 2829, 2831, 2832, 2839, 2841, 2842, 2849, 2851-2854, 2859, 2861-2867 and 2869. ABS Foreign Trade, unpublished data (analysis of knowledge-intensive goods provided by Queensland Treasury) ^^ Based on analyses of the National Surveys of Research Commercialisation full data set (www.innovation.gov.au/Section/Innovation/Pages/TheNationalSurveyofResearchCommercialisation.aspx): All organisations, other than Australian Government organisations, were included in calculations. For R&D expenditure, ABS data for the higher education sector and non-profit sector were added together, as R&D expenditure data in the survey were incomplete. LOA income was not adjusted for portions paid to other institutions or commercial entities. 39