Document of The World Bank Report No: PROJECT BRIEF ON A PROPOSED GRANT FROM THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY TRUST FUND IN THE AMOUNT OF USD9.48 MILLION TO THE FIJI, PAPUA NEW GUINEA, REPUBLIC OF MARSHALL ISLANDS, SOLOMON ISLANDS, AND VANUATU FOR A SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FINANCING PROJECT April 22, 2006 Energy and Mining Sector Unit Infrastructure Department East Asia and Pacific Region CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective {Date}) Currency Unit = = USD 1 USD = SDR1 FISCAL YEAR July 1 – June 30 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ADB APC ANZ Asian Development Bank Approval Product Catalogue Australian and New Zealand Banking Group Limited The Australian Government's Overseas Aid Program Central bank of Solomon Islands Community Carbon Fund Community Development Scheme - AusAid Carbon Dioxide Calendar Year Demand Side Management East Asia Energy and Mining Sector Development Unit Executive Agency MSP MWE NGO Medium-Sized Projects Ministry of Works and Energy Non Government Organization OED Operations Evaluation Department PCF PEDF PFI PFnet PIC PICs PID Prototype Carbon Fund Pacific Enterprise Development Facility - IFC Participating Financial Institutions Solomon Islands People First Network Public Information Centre Pacific Islands Countries Project Information Document PIGGAREP PIREP PNG PNGSEL PV PVGAP RE REAF RESCOs RSF RVP SBD SEFP SF SHLK SIG SME SPREP TA Social Fund Solar Home Lighting Kits Solomon Islands Government Small and Medium Enterprise South Pacific Renewable Energy Project Technical Assistance kWh LAC European Energy Framework Energy Efficiency Companies Energy Services Delivery - Sri Lanka Fiji Electricity Authority Federated States of Micronesia Financial Management System Financial Support Fund Global Development Learning Network Global Environmental Facility Government of Fiji Government of Papua New Guinea International Bank for Reconstruction and Development International Competitive Bidding International Development Association International Finance Corporation Internal Rate of Return Integrated Safeguards Data Sheet International Organization for Standardization Kilowatt hour Latin-American and Caribbean Pacific Islands Greenhouse Gas Abatement through Renewable Energy Project Pacific Islands Renewable Energy Programme Papua New Guinea PNG Sustainable Energy Limited Photovoltaic PV Global Approval Program Rural Electrification Regional Executive Agency – Financial Renewable Energy Service Companies Risk Sharing Fund Regional Vice-President Standard Bidding Document Sustainable Energy Financing Project UNDP UNDP REP-POR MC MIS MSEs Management Contractor Management Information Systems Micro and Small Enterprises UNEP USP United Nations Development Programme United Nations Development Programme Regional Energy Programme for Poverty Reduction United Nations Environmental Programme University of the South Pacific AusAid CBSI CCF CDS CO2 CY DSM EASEG EA EEF ESCOs ESD FEA FSM FMS FSF GDLN GEF GoF GoPNG IBRD ICB IDA IFC IRR ISDS ISO Acting Vice President: Country Director: Sector Manager: Task Team Leader: Jeffrey S. Gutman Xian Zhu Junhui Wu Antonie De Wilde PACIFIC ISLANDS Sustainable Energy Finance Project CONTENTS Page A. STRATEGIC CONTEXT AND RATIONALE ................................................................. 1 1. Country and sector issues.................................................................................................... 1 2. Rationale for Bank/GEF involvement ................................................................................ 3 3. Higher level objectives to which the project contributes .................................................... 3 B. PROJECT DESCRIPTION ................................................................................................. 3 1. Grant instrument ................................................................................................................. 3 2. Project development objective and key indicators.............................................................. 4 3. Project global environmental objective and key indicators ................................................ 4 4. Project components ............................................................................................................. 4 5. Lessons learned and reflected in the project design ............................................................ 8 6. Alternatives considered and reasons for rejection .............................................................. 9 C. IMPLEMENTATION ........................................................................................................ 10 1. Partnership arrangements .................................................................................................. 10 2. Institutional and implementation arrangements ................................................................ 11 3. Monitoring and evaluation of outcomes/results ................................................................ 12 4. Sustainability and Replicability ........................................................................................ 12 5. Critical risks and possible controversial aspects ............................................................... 13 6. Loan/credit conditions and covenants ............................................................................... 14 D. APPRAISAL SUMMARY ................................................................................................. 14 1. Economic and financial analyses ...................................................................................... 14 2. Technical ........................................................................................................................... 15 3. Fiduciary ........................................................................................................................... 15 4. Social................................................................................................................................. 16 5. Environment ...................................................................................................................... 16 6. Safeguard policies ............................................................................................................. 17 7. Policy Exceptions and Readiness...................................................................................... 18 Annex 1: Country and Sector or Program Background ......................................................... 19 Annex 3: Results Framework and Monitoring ........................................................................ 36 Annex 4: Detailed Project Description ...................................................................................... 41 Annex 6: Implementation Arrangements ................................................................................. 59 Annex 7: Financial Management and Disbursement Arrangements ..................................... 68 Annex 8: Procurement Arrangements ...................................................................................... 69 Annex 10: Safeguard Policy Issues ............................................................................................ 75 Annex 11: Project Preparation and Supervision ..................................................................... 76 Annex 12: Documents in the Project File ................................................................................. 77 Annex 13: Statement of Loans and Credits .............................................................................. 78 Annex 14: Country at a Glance ................................................................................................. 80 Annex 15: Incremental Cost Analysis ....................................................................................... 90 The project aims to significantly increase the adoption and use of renewable energy technologies in participating Pacific Island states through a package of incentives to encourage local financial institutions to participate in sustainable energy finance in support of equipment purchase. The global environment objective is to contribute to mitigating climate change through the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in line with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. ............................................................................................. 102 Annex 16: STAP Roster Review .............................................................................................. 111 Annex 17: Maps......................................................................................................................... 115 A. STRATEGIC CONTEXT AND RATIONALE 1. Country and sector issues The Pacific island countries that will benefit from this project - Fiji, Papua New Guinea (PNG), Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI), Solomon Islands (SI), and Vanuatu - face similar, complex development challenges, stemming largely from their small, sparsely-distributed populations and remoteness. Resulting weak economic growth, in a context of relatively high birth rates, has caused high unemployment and hardship. Even those countries that have achieved positive growth in average per capita income have been unable to fully translate this into adequate job creation and poverty reduction. The World Bank’s assistance strategy for the Pacific island countries (PICs) is to help them establish a business environment conducive to faster and sustainable economic growth and to higher employment. Access to electricity is one key to growth, but is generally low - ranging from 10 percent in PNG to over 65 percent in Fiji. And power generation is heavily dependent on diesel, both on and off the main grid, particularly in rural areas. In 2002, the islands’ cost of energy was in the range of 4-8% of GDP. In 2005, its cost skyrocketed to 12-25% of GDP – a severe drain on resources and barrier to growth. Increasing access to electricity and reducing its cost are thus vitally necessary to promote economic growth and to improve the quality of life of PIC households. Fortunately the islands have good renewable energy endowments (solar, wind and hydro) and considerable energy efficiency potential. Hence (a) renewable energy technologies are often the least cost option for increasing access to modern energy services for rural households and micro and small enterprises (MSEs); and (b) energy efficiency improvement can reduce energy import costs. However, past donor (mainly bilateral) assistance efforts have been technology-focused, fragmented, and have failed to establish efficient and commercially-sustainable energy service delivery systems that can achieve these objectives. With GEF support, the Pacific island states are now beginning to strategically address the major barriers to renewable energy development and energy efficiency improvement. The first key steps in that process are the UNDP/GEF Pacific Islands Renewable Energy Project (PIREP) and its follow-up project, the Pacific Islands Greenhouse Gas Abatement through Renewable Energy Project1 (PIGGAREP). These two regional projects are addressing the policy and regulatory, technology standard and some of the awareness barriers to renewable energy development. This proposed project, which has been developed in discussion with UNDP, will complement them by addressing the two major remaining barriers – (i) the lack of a professional, accessible dealer network to supply and help maintain renewable energy equipment, such as solar PV kits and/or 1 UNDP has a regional project under preparation, namely the Pacific Islands Greenhouse Gas Abatement through Renewable Energy Project (PIGGAREP). It will contribute to the removal of the major barriers to the widespread utilization of RE technologies (RETs). The project covering the PICs is expected to: (i) increase the number of successful commercial RE applications; (ii) expand the market for RETs applications; (iii) enhance institutional capacity to design, implement and monitor RE projects; (iv) increase availability and accessibility of financing to existing and new RE projects; (v) strengthen legal and regulatory structures in the energy and environmental sectors; and, (vi) increased awareness and knowledge on RE and RETs among key stakeholders. 1 pico hydro units and (ii) the reluctance of local financial institutions to finance renewable energy systems and energy efficiency investments on affordable terms. These two major barriers are interlinked and mutually reinforcing. There is currently not enough demand for renewable energy equipment for an accessible and highly professional RE equipment dealer network to develop, because the equipment’s high initial investment costs prevent most of the population from purchasing it for cash. Because of the low demand, retailers or renewable energy service companies (RESCOs) don’t invest in stocks of SolarPV and/or pico-hydro equipment. Similarly, local banks have not explored the option of financing such equipment, have no experience in financing it, and hence view loans for renewable energy equipment as very risky and are unwilling to grant them. As local stores don’t carry renewable energy equipment, customers aren’t aware of there existence and benefits. During identification of this project several store owners expressed an interest and had a sense that there would be considerable demand, but lack of market intelligence, prevented them from entering this market. Stores would only respond to mainly donor or government financed bulk purchases and don’t stock up for individual sales. To keep monthly expenses for renewable energy systems the same or less than for fossil fuel options, renewable energy equipment buyers need loan-term loans of at least five to seven years. But the financial institutions are reluctant to make loans of the required length. Finally, the interest rates charged by banks on the few renewable energy and energy efficiency loans they do make to individuals and MSEs often render them unaffordable. On the other hand, many local financial institutions are looking for good projects to finance, even in rural areas. For example, the Australian and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ) have recently initiated rural banking operations in Fiji and Solomon Islands. And, in response to a request for Expression of Interest published on the dgMarket website, a reputed local bank has shown interest in renewable energy lending by its branches and subsidiaries in four of the six countries involved in this project. Similarly, a number of other local financial institutions have indicated their strong interest in renewable energy lending, though some, particularly the smaller local institutions, would require significant technical assistance before they would be able to do so. By (i) helping local renewable energy equipment dealers with well researched market intelligence to expand their businesses and develop their skills and (ii) exploiting the willingness of capable local financial institutions to lend for renewable energy and energy efficiency projects and removing the barriers to such lending, this proposed project will significantly increase the adoption and use of renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency measures in the participating Pacific Island states. The project’s proposed mechanisms of risk sharing instruments, backed with GEF funds, plus targeted financial and dealer institutional capacitybuilding, is calculated to give the required stimulus to the financial institutions and renewable energy dealers, without causing them to deviate from their normal business practices or undermining their commercial viability. 2 2. Rationale for Bank/GEF involvement In the Pacific Forum of the Finance Ministers of the Pacific Islands held in Washington, DC in September 2005, several PICs requested the World Bank to provide urgent Bank assistance to expand sustainable energy use and energy efficiency to offset the increased price of oil, which has already had a significant adverse effect on their economies. The Bank and GEF are wellpositioned to provide the necessary funds and technical expertise to meet this request, which is consistent with the Bank’s strategy for the Pacific region.2 The proposed project is consistent with GEF Operational Program (OP) Number 5 “Removal of Barriers to Energy Efficiency and Energy Conservation” and OP Number 6 “Promoting the Adoption of Renewable Energy by Removing Barriers and Reducing Implementation Costs.” The specific priority is CC-2 Increased Access to Local Sources of Financing Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency. The United National Development Programme (UNDP), with GEF financing, has under preparation a project entitled Pacific Islands Greenhouse Gas Abatement through Renewable Energy Project (PIGGAREP), which is also regional in scope. Discussions have been held with UNDP to ensure that the proposed SEFP project is complementary to PIGGAREP; in particular, the SEFP project focuses on the Bank’s comparative advantage – innovative financing. 3. Higher level objectives to which the project contributes The project supports the higher-level sector and country development objectives of the Pacific Island countries, as expressed in the Bank’s Pacific Regional Strategy for FY2006-2009, by contributing to: (i) reducing poverty and increasing the quality of life for those persons living in rural households and (ii) generating sustainable economic growth and employment opportunities. It does so through facilitating increased access to electricity, reducing reliance on diesel power generation, enabling income-earning activities, and contributing to the development of micro and small enterprises. B. PROJECT DESCRIPTION 1. Grant instrument The proposed SEFP project is a stand-alone USD9.48 million GEF grant financed project to be implemented over seven years.3 SEFP is a regional project that will start with Fiji , Papua New Guinea, Republic of Marshall Islands, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu and might expand to include other countries in the region over time. The project is to be jointly implemented by the World Bank and IFC, through the Sydney office. The Bank will take primary responsibilities for Fiji., Papua New Guinea, and Solomon Islands. IFC will take primary responsibility for Marshall Islands, and Vanuatu. 2 3 The countries are covered under the Bank’s Pacific Regional Strategy for FY 2006 - FY 2009. For Fiji, at the request of the Government and Fiji Electricity Authority (FEA), a separate Bank project is being developed to provide finance to FEA for grid-connected renewable energy power generation. This is expected to be financed by an IBRD loan of USD23-45 million, depending on project scope, with no separate GEF cofinancing; however, the SEFP project will provide assistance with the development and implementation of the FEA project. 3 Financing support commitments using SEFP funds will be made throughout the seven year implementation period. The project is designed so that it will be capable of extension for a second seven year implementation period; during any such extension, it is expected that the costs of ongoing project management would be drawn from remaining project funds and that the guarantee percentage would be set lower than the initial 50 percent level. When the project is finally closed, no further financing support using project funds will be committed and World Bank and IFC will consult with GEF and Governments of participating countries about future use of project funds. These funds will include uncommitted funds immediately available as well as committed funds as they are released under the terms of financing support commitments. The project is designed so that, if it proves successful but cannot satisfy demand, other financiers, including IFC, would be able to provide additional parallel guarantee support, with the associated guarantee fee paid out of project funds. 2. Project development objective and key indicators The project aims to significantly increase the adoption and use of renewable energy technologies in participating Pacific Island states through a package of incentives to encourage local financial institutions to participate in sustainable energy finance in support of equipment purchase. The key indicators are: Number of additional households and MSEs served by modern sustainable electricity services; Installed new renewable generation capacity by unit and kW; Financial savings realized by switching from non-renewable fossil fuels (such as kerosene, petrol and diesel) and non-reusable batteries (such as alkaline dry cells) to renewable supply options including Solar PV, pico-hydro and coconut oil-fuelled generators; and Number of kWh saved due to energy efficiency interventions; 3. Project global environmental objective and key indicators The global environment objective is to contribute to mitigating climate change through the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in line with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The key indicators are: CO2 emissions avoided; Investments in sustainable energy supply and in energy efficiency measures; and Financing provided by local financial institutions for sustainable energy and energy efficiency purposes. 4. Project components The SEFP project consists of four components that together will promote the financing of sustainable energy and energy efficiency investments, as well as the early monitoring of the effectiveness of these investments. The sustainable energy options to be supported under this project are Solar PV, pico-hydro, and investments to switch fuel for stationary generating engines from diesel to coconut oil. The financing will all originate from local financial institutions that are willing, with support from SEFP, to lend to individuals and MSEs for qualifying investments. The capacity of these banks and non-bank financial institutions to lend to these types of borrower for such purposes 4 will be enhanced by technical assistance offered under SEFP. Further technical assistance will be given to retailers and installers of qualifying equipment, to ensure that they are properly trained in the technologies concerned. SEFP financing support has been designed to reduce to a minimum any distorting effect on financial or commercial markets in the countries of operation. The proposed mechanism of risk sharing instruments backed with GEF funds is calculated to give the required stimulus to financial institutions, without causing them to deviate from their normal spectrum of loan terms. The four components of SEFP are presented below: Components 1. Risk Sharing Fund and Renewable Energy Investments 2.TA, Market surveys and Communications a. TA to Financial institutions b. TA, for Retailers and MSEs c. Development of Product Catalogue d. Participant Training e. TA for Utilities and studies d. Communications 3. Participant monitoring 4. Management & Evaluation Miscellaneous Total Govts & Utilities NGO/EC and IFC parallel financing 19.50 0.10 Local Banks 1.70 19.67 0.27 0.10 0.41 0.24 0.10 0.17 0.08 2.58 20.16 Enterprises Total 0.90 5.20 46.97 0.30 0.62 0.77 0.34 1.30 1.17 0.34 0.24 0.59 0.61 0.40 1.54 0.04 53.20 0.18 19.78 GEF 1.20 0.39 0.36 0.40 1.36 0.04 9.48 Component 1: Risk Sharing Fund (RSF) (GEF USD5.2 million, Financial Institutions USD19.67 million, Enterprises USD0.9 million, NGOs USD1.7 million and Renewable Energy Investments (19.5 million) The RSF will be used to provide innovative financing support to facilitate the flow of finance from local private sector financial institutions for sustainable energy and energy efficiency investments. SEFP financing support will not be allocated between the participating countries, although each country will receive an initial allocation for technical assistance to allow operations to commence. The RSF will be administered by a Fund Manager, a first class regional financial institution, chosen through a competitive process, with direct links with banks and other financial institutions in the participating countries. The RSF is targeting two groups of end-users: (i) households already using kerosene for lighting needs and (ii) MSEs using kerosene, diesel or other fossil fuels to provide energy for use in their business activities. The support would enable these end-users to finance purchases of sustainable energy and energy efficiency equipment. Since the supply chain for such equipment is not well developed in the region, the RSF will also provide financing support to MSEs to allow start-up or expansion of their supply, design, maintenance and installation businesses in this sector. Households. Household lighting using Solar PV or, in certain circumstances, pico-hydro generators, will be promoted by SEFP. Using such sustainable sources will obviate the need for such households to continue to use kerosene for oil lamps and diesel or petrol for small generators, thus contributing to the reduction of fossil fuel consumption and emission of 5 greenhouse gases. The relatively high initial investment cost of this type of sustainable energy equipment can be converted into periodic payments through the use of conventional loan finance. A guiding principle of SEFP is that these payments should be held within the range of the current average household expenditure on kerosene, diesel fuel or non-rechargeable dry cell batteries for lighting. The RSF provided by GEF will support risk sharing commitments, with the local participating financial institutions (PFIs) providing this loan finance, that will: Facilitate loans with a tenor of up to five years, rather than the shorter loans offered now in some participating countries. The longer tenor will allow payments to be reduced to an affordable level, in accordance with the principle indicated above. Share a significant part of the repayment risk with local financial institutions through a partial guarantee mechanism. This mechanism will allow the supported finance to be on terms, including interest rate, tenor and security, that will make the finance available and the payments affordable. Micro and Small Enterprises. The project provides financial and technical support to three types of MSEs. The first type is a user of energy that intends, like the households described above, to replace its current use of fossil fuels with energy from sustainable sources. The second type is an MSE which is part of the supply chain to get sustainable energy products from the factory to the end-user. These MSEs include wholesalers, retailers and installers; in some cases these firms may also provide design, maintenance and repair services. The third type is an energy service MSE that facilitates investments in energy efficiency schemes by providing some combination of consultancy, design, supply, installation and maintenance services. SEFP financing support will expand the availability of loan finance from private financial institutions to these MSEs, mostly using the partial guarantee mechanism. In the case of some MSEs, the principle of using avoided fuel costs to assess loan payment affordability is inapplicable; however, the sample of MSE Business Plans (see Appendix of Annex 4) prepared during SEFP pre-appraisal demonstrates the affordability of loan service payments on loans supported by the RSF. Depending on the commercial lending criteria applied by the lending institution in each case, such MSE loans supported by the RSF will have tenors of up to seven years and interest rates at the lower end of the band conventionally offered to corporate borrowers. Approved Product Catalogue. For each participating country, through the technical assistance component, a catalogue of products which qualify for financing under this project will be developed and frequently updated to allow for price fluctuations, etc. Based on successful experience in other projects, SEFP will focus on the introduction of high quality products. The product catalogue will only contain products and systems which have been tested and certified by local standards institutes and which comply with relevant international standards. Supported Technologies. Project size and other practical considerations mean that SEFP can only deal with a few sustainable energy and energy efficiency technologies. Based on demand surveys conducted during project identification, SEFP will be restricted to supporting the following four technologies: Solar PV, pico hydro, switching to coconut oil and improving energy efficiency. For Solar PV systems, the loan finance supported by the RSF will be sufficient to cover the initial cost of the equipment and its installation, as well as the cost of the first replacement battery, expected to be required after three to five years and a single premium to pay for five 6 years of extreme climate loss and damage insurance. For pico-hydro systems, it is proposed to finance the equipment and installation costs. For investments in fuel switching, it is proposed that the financing will cover the costs of modification of the fuel supply system and other components necessary to switch from diesel to coconut oil. Investments in Energy Efficiency technologies are not limited by any specific technology. It is anticipated that technologies will focus on more efficient lighting and air conditioning systems. The Fiji Electricity Authority (FEA) is the public utility responsible for general electrification through the national grid in Fiji. It has an extensive grid on Viti Levu and three other smaller grids on Vanua Levu and Ovalau, supplied by 14 power stations with a total installed capacity of 194 MW, of which 80 MW is hydro. FEA, to meet existing and new demand with sustainable energy solutions, based on least cost analysis, will with input from this project make investments in renewable energy capacity with financing from IBRD (Board date January 2007). This new capacity will replace all their diesel generation with renewable energy. While these studies will assist FEA with their general investment strategy, in line with Bank policies none of these studies is part of the preparatory work for the proposed IBRD loan. Component 2: Technical assistance, market incentives and communications (GEF USD2.48 million, other sources USD1.7 million) Technical assistance (TA) will be provided through SEFP, as follows to: Strengthen the capacity of local financial institutions to service clients borrowing to purchase Solar PVs, pico-hydros or fuel switching equipment. TA and training will be made available to PFIs to establish and maintain a profitable sustainable energy portfolio, including support with appropriate management information systems, risk mitigation and recovery techniques. Provide relevant training to the Fund Manager, a first class bank with regional representation that will administer the RSF. Strengthen sales and after sales incentive structure for service providers through detailed market surveys, thereby reducing the risk for retailers to stock too much or to little solarPV and additional equipment. Strengthen the financial and technical capacity of MSE sustainable energy service providers to make them more bankable from the perspective of private sector lenders. This would, inter alia, include support for renewable energy equipment suppliers to understand about PVGAP certification and quality management standards (including ISO 9000 and local variants). Strengthen customer understanding of the operational aspects of the sustainable energy equipment to be purchased. The project will require the buyers of products supported by SEFP to pass a computer-based interactive video training program. This program will be focused on non-functionally literate clients, to assure that all possible clients will get a basic understanding of the workings of the equipment. Completion of this training will be a condition to be eligible for a loan supported by the RSF. Provide assistance in sustainable energy repair and maintenance training to vocational schools in areas where no such training is currently available Facilitate other local training institutions including internet based learning centers to develop and administer training in the repair and maintenance of sustainable energy equipment. Provide technical support to produce and frequently update an Approved Product Catalogue – covering products which meet certified quality standards – supplied by local retailers. 7 Financial support from the RSF will only be available for products meeting these quality standards. To keep costs down, the project will encourage retailers to obtain quotes for Solar PV and pico-hydro components from all global sources meeting PVGAP or equivalent quality standards. Assistance for local retailers and MSEs to attend international trade fairs and training programs. Provide technical assistance and support hydro basin and biomass resource studies in Fiji for investments in large scale renewable energy generation capacity to be finance under an IBRD loan. (Board date for this loan is January 2007). While these studies will assist FEA with their general investment strategy, in line with Bank policies none of these studies is part of the preparatory work for the proposed IBRD loan. A communications plan (in coordination with the PIGGAREP project) that addresses all the relevant stakeholders. Component 3: Participant monitoring (GEF USD0.4 million, no other sources). For the first three years of the project, household borrowers will be requested to fill out semiannually a short survey, reporting their technical, economic and social experiences resulting from access to modern energy services. Borrowers participating will be rewarded for an acceptable survey by receiving the equivalent of a fortnightly loan service payment on their loan. The feedback from the surveys will help to fine tune the project interventions for improved effectiveness and to monitor the environmental, economic and social impact of the project on the beneficiaries. Component 4: Management and Evaluation (GEF USD1.36 million, USD175,000 from Local Governments) The Executive Agencies (EAs) in the participating countries do not all have the specific technical expertise in house to manage this project in their country. For that reason, EAs will procure the services of Management Contractors (MCs) to assist them with the execution of the program. Evaluations will be carried out by the end of year 2 and year 5. 5. Lessons learned and reflected in the project design In the Pacific region, there have been many efforts to develop renewable energy and energy efficiency in the Pacific region, but few examples of successful and sustainable development outcomes. One promising example is a small Bank-GEF project4 with a grant of USD1 million became effective in PNG in September 2005. The project’s objective is to catalyze commercial finance from the Teachers Savings and Loan Association to its members for the purchase of Solar PV systems. While it is still too early to draw any definitive conclusions, the following tentative conclusions can be drawn from the limited experience: 4 Local financial institutions, such as the Teachers’ S&L Association, are interested in expanding their loan portfolio, and are willing to finance renewable energy systems; Teachers and other salaried employees with regular incomes are an attractive group for financial institutions because it is possible to deduct their repayments ‘at source;’ and In GEF terminology, this is a “Medium-sized Project.” 8 There is considerable demand among such target groups for renewable energy systems. From the unsuccessful experiences, we also draw useful lessons through understanding the reasons for failure: Suitable technical and management skills must be available locally. Projects which do not address these long-term training needs have been unsuccessful at least in part due to technical failures resulting in unreliable service. Such failures can be caused by a range of factors including poor system design and installation; lack of maintenance or after sales service; low quality or inappropriate components; lack of end-user training resulting in incorrect operation and maintenance; and use of unproven technologies. Need to ensure good financial management is in place at relevant financial institutions. Good outcomes can be compromised as a result of, inter alia, a lack of appropriate management and administrative skills and inappropriate ownership models, weak institutional capacity and support, ineffective long-term budgeting, and dependency on politically vulnerable subsidy schemes. It is important to carefully consider the ability and willingness of end-users to pay service fees or make loan payments. Failure to match or manage expectations of quality and type of electricity service; poor scheme administration, failure to enforce tariffs, and a lack of affordable finance may all impact the willingness or ability to pay. Having relevant cost-benefit information for renewable energy and energy efficiency measures is necessary. Without such info, households and enterprises are reluctant to invest and financial institutions are unwilling to lend. Uncertainty results in weak political drivers for energy development and schemes often fail to deliver cost-effective livelihood benefits. Schemes focused on private and/or community ownership have a high rate of success, while projects involving renewable energy installed in public buildings such as schools and hospitals show less successful outcomes. The recently launched Renewable Energy Toolkit: An Operational Guide for Electric Services (www.worldbank.org/retoolkit) highlights the lessons from renewable energy programs supported by the World Bank, GEF and others. For stand alone renewable energy systems, successful programs have managed to provide solutions for six core issues during the introduction phase concurrently: (i) provide access to finance to overcome high initial cost of systems for end users and service providers; (ii) establish delivery infrastructure to connect the remote and dispersed markets to the often urban based suppliers; (iii) adopt inclusive rural electrification policy to clearly define the roles of grid extension and off-grid options, and ensure a level playing field for the stand alone service providers to fairly compete with traditional utilities; (iv) guarantee minimum quality of (after sales) service to ensure the quality of the products and services; (v) understand customer needs and increase service awareness to know consumers' ability to pay and offer products that are tailored to consumers' needs; and (vi) scale up capacity building to rapid increase understanding of the industry's specifics to all business partners involved. The proposed project has been designed taking these lessons into account. 6. Alternatives considered and reasons for rejection Financing support mechanism. The main alternative considered was to use GEF funds for investment subsidies for institutional systems run by the public sector, instead of catalyzing commercial finance. This alternative was rejected because the utilization of commercial finance 9 increases the development of a commercially viable market for systems, and thus increases the likelihood of sustainability and replication. It would be also possible to deploy GEF financial resources for use in SEFP in the form of a direct credit line, used to finance sustainable energy and energy efficiency investments. In such a scheme, the Bank and IFC would lend the money to selected local FIs, which would in turn make loans to SEFP’s individual and MSE beneficiaries. The credit line approach would require a detailed credit assessment of each local intermediary institution. It would also require complex arrangements for disbursement and recovery of SEFP funds directly to and from each local institution. Flexibility between countries would be jeopardized. For these reasons, the risk sharing fund (RSF) approach is proposed. This would only require a credit assessment of the Fund Manager (FM), which would be the fund holder for all the RSF monies dedicated to financing support. Other institutions would only receive RSF monies when a default had occurred in an underlying credit and a partial guarantee payment had been called. Disbursement and recovery of funds would be much simpler and, with a single pool of funds held by the FM, flexibility between countries would be preserved. Selection of participating countries. The selected five countries for initial support through SEFP all have very limited electrification penetration rates, in the range of 10 to 65 percent. This demonstrates a sizeable market potential for absorption of sustainable energy investments. Three additional countries, Federated States of Micronesia, Samoa and Tonga, were assessed for inclusion in SEFP but were either found to be almost fully electrified (Samoa 95 percent and Tonga 90 percent) or decided not to participate (FSM). Considering the limited size of SEFP resources, and the availability of REEF resources through the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Samoa and Tonga were not included as participating countries in SEFP. Selection of supported technologies. Due to the limited funding available to the SEFP, only three small-scale renewable energy technologies will be supported under this project: these being Solar PV, pico-hydro and coconut oil fuel switching. These have been selected on the basis that the capital cost was such that typical loan repayments would be affordable (i.e., monthly repayments are not more than avoided fuel costs for households and MSEs); they provide coverage of the different renewable energy resource settings in the region (i.e. pico-hydro and Solar PV in highlands; Solar PV, pico-hydro and fuel switching in coastal areas; Solar PV and fuel switching in outer islands); they are suitable for a range of end-uses (i.e. Solar PV is most suited to lighting; pico-hydro is suited to light and low power end-uses; fuel switching is suited to light and higher power end-uses); and, there is a reasonable level of local experience. Other small-scale technologies were also considered using the same criteria however these were found to be less suitable, these included small-scale wind, biomass (small gasifiers) and biogas. C. IMPLEMENTATION 1. Partnership arrangements The most important partnership under this project is with the UNDP REP project as well as with the South Pacific Renewable Energy Project (SPREP), which is executing the PIGGAREP project on behalf of UNDP. The project also works together with the EC delegations in the country. In Solomon Islands and PNG, the EC Micro-Project Programme Phase II will provide parallel financing for pico-hydro and fuel switching for rural training centers and farmers field schools. In RMI, SEFP works together with the EC funded REP-5. In all countries, local NGOs, 10 community groups and Universities have offered their assistance with the implementation of the project (letters of support in the Documents on File). Some foundations in Fiji and in PNG will make financial contributions to the project or provide parallel financing for project related activities. 2. Institutional and implementation arrangements The technical implementation of the project will be done within each country by the following Executive Agencies (EAs): Fiji: Ministry of Works and Energy (MWE) for off-grid components and the Fiji Electricity Authority (FEA) for studies of on-grid sustainable energy opportunities. PNG: PNG Sustainable Energy Ltd. (PNGSEL). This agency is already responsible for implementing the ongoing PNG Teachers’ Solar Lighting Project. Solomon Islands: The Central Bank of the Solomon Islands (CBSI). Marshall Islands and Vanuatu: To be selected based on tender process following IFC procurement procedures. A Fund Manager, which will serve all participating countries, will administer the finance component of the Project. A first class, highly reputed regional Bank has responded to a request for expressions of interest for the function of Fund Manager. Negotiations are in an advanced stage and will be finalized during appraisal. Responsibilities of EAs. The general duties of EAs in each country will be as follows: Implementation of SEFP in country, including liaison with local PFIs; Handling all technical assistance procurement in compliance with World Bank and or IFC and local procurement requirements; Managing all technical assistance contracts; and Submitting periodic reports on the performance and status of the project components. To address institutional capacity constraints, such as a shortage of qualified staff, each EA will execute the project through a Management Contract (MC), as/if needed. The MC will be an autonomous unit under contract to and supervised by the EA. Responsibilities of the Fund Manager. The Fund Manager will be the custodian of the RSF monies, which will be administered in a prudent fashion to provide the financing support for loans by PFIs to SEFP beneficiaries. Administration will include holding the SEFP RSF, making risk sharing agreements with Participating Financial Institutions (PFIs), transferring funds in accordance with such agreements, monitoring commitments and reporting to WB and IFC. Considering that commitments of RSF resources will be in the local currencies of the participating countries, and that outstanding commitments will change constantly as loan balances are repaid, the Fund Manager’s monitoring function is most important. Reporting by EAs and Fund Manager. Semi-annual reports on the status of SEFP in each country will be prepared by the EAs. For continuity, consistency and reasons of geographical convenience, IFC will be in charge of collecting and collating these reports and forwarding the resultant combined reports to WB and GEF. The Fund Manager will also prepare a semi-annual 11 report on the status of the RSF. Again, IFC will receive this report from the Fund Manager and forward it together with the EA reports. Details of the above implementation arrangements are presented in Annex 6. 3. Monitoring and evaluation of outcomes/results Executive agencies in each country will provide detailed data on project outcomes through the semi-annual reports extracted from a performance-based monitoring scheme, which is described as a separate competent of this project (Component 3). For the households, the management consultant hired by each of the EA will collect and process (twice a year for the first 3 years) the surveys filled out by program participants. The survey will address both technical implementation questions (for example, the time taken to obtain a replacement lamp), and economic and social impact of the new or improved access to modern energy services (for example, increased income and savings due to lower cost for energy, additional productive hours for, men and women, and improved literacy among others by children studying in the evenings using electric light). This aspect of the monitoring will stop after the third year. For the MSEs, the collection of data will be done through direct interviews and will focus on the business characteristics of the supported enterprises such as balance sheet, profitability and growth of the business. For PFIs, the EAs will collect information on the size and quality of their portfolio for this project. Based on the PFI data, the EAs will also track and interview retailers which have not received financing through this project. All data combined will result in semi-annual reports, which will inform the implementing agencies also on the renewable energy systems installed, the quality and reliability of services provided by suppliers and the results in actual CO2 emissions avoided. The first participant monitoring survey (Component 3) and interviews will collect baseline data for key performance indicators, which will inform the two planned evaluations for the project. The first evaluation is scheduled at the end of the second year. Beside traditional evaluation issues, including social and economic impact, this evaluation will inform the implementing agencies about the possible need to expand the guarantee fund through a mechanism described in Annex 4: (See section entitled “Leveraging the project”.) The second evaluation will take place at the end of year five and will address the success or failure of the project, and will also need to inform the implementing agencies about the exact exit procedures. If the project is successful, the released guarantees can provide financing for a second project term, with significantly lower guarantees from the fund freeing up funds to finance the supervision and management contracts for the extension of this project without recourse to fresh GEF funding (See Annex 4, section titled “Exit Strategy”.) 4. Sustainability and Replicability Sustainability. Coupled with UNDP’s PIGGAREP project outputs, the access to equipment, information and finance in renewable energy and energy efficiency provided under this project is expected to lead to rapid increase of the use of modern energy services in the Pacific Islands both at the individual and micro and small enterprise level. Such increase will lead to the 12 establishment of a mature market for renewable energy and energy efficiency in the participating countries. By working with the private sector to support commercially viable and demand-driven investments with financial support only in the form of risk sharing, facilitating lower interest rates and longer loan tenor, the projects insures that local FI establish a direct stake in this market. Experience with other housing and micro finance loan schemes suggests that the proportion of loan losses would be modest. The sustainability of the investments is expected to come from the fact that banks and financial institutions, once they have explored the renewable energy and energy efficiency market with the assistance of the risk sharing guarantee facilities offered under this project, will assess it as being a sound, viable, and profitable line of business. They will therefore generate lending products to address the market, and lower or eliminate their risk sharing requirements. Replicability. The project is already a partial replication from the Teachers Solar Lighting Project in PNG which is providing valuable information nine months after its start. The basic concept of replacing kerosene and diesel with renewable energy solutions at a monthly cash flow equal or less than what households and MSEs now pay for their fossil fuel based energy, through a financial intermediation method, is already considered for wide spread replication in Africa and other countries in Asia (Mongolia). Within each of the countries, replication of this commercial model is facilitated among other through active donor coordination by the Bank and the local governments to assure that donor programs by distributing free Solar PVs and other renewables don’t disturb the market place and that donations are in support of establishing a commercial market. It is expected that after the first period of 7 years, banks will have recognized that lending for renewable energy is a profitable product line and will lower their guarantee requirements or altogether lend to the sector without guarantees. The funds freed up in this way will facilitate the project to be financed for a second period of seven years, inclusive of all GEF and IA supervision and monitoring costs, and will also facilitate the possibility to expand the range of products to include other renewables such as windmills and/or bio gas installation. 5. Critical risks and possible controversial aspects The project does not include any controversial aspects. However, the project does have some significant risks: there may be macro-economic and political instability; natural disasters might occur in one or more of the included countries; or installed equipment may be stolen or vandalized as has happened in the past in some of the PICs. If future problems are confined at any one time to only one or two countries, the project will be able to function effectively in the other countries. Similarly, if any one technology is no longer appropriate due to changes in the natural or social situation then the project can move focus to the other technologies. The flexibility built into the project design will enable the shift of resources and focus to meet these changing circumstances. Risks Households and MSEs are not prepared to commit to long-term Risk Mitigation Measures The project will be promoted and marketed as replacing the cost of fuels and dry cell batteries, rather than a long-term 13 Risk Rating M loans. Participants in remote areas do not participate due to the difficulties of transporting equipment. PFIs or retailers fail to perform in accordance with performance agreements. Local retailers are unable to access international markets for sustainable energy equipment, resulting in higher-thanprojected prices and slower supply to the project. Macro-economic and political instability. Natural disasters such as drought, cyclone or tsunami cause widespread damage to schemes, leading to defaulting on loans. Repayments stop due to theft or vandalism of equipment. loan program. Participants can also choose from a range of products of different cost, thereby reducing repayments. There will be a range of technologies offered under the scheme and each will be available in a range of sizes and options which will permit those in remote areas to select an appropriate system to suite their transport options. The project will monitor performance via the participant monitoring scheme. This knowledge will be used to adapt agreements, provide training to help overcome problems, redirect support to new FIs or retailers, and screen out nonperformers. Provide technical assistance, training and intelligence on international procurement of sustainable energy components. If the supply of one technology is diminished then emphasis can be shifted to the other technologies. Project will work with strong institutions but many of the factors will be beyond the project’s control. Inherent flexibility between countries will mitigate this risk. Project technical standards will ensure installations take account of local factors. Also, the countries selected are geographically dispersed thereby reducing the risk of concurrent disasters. The three technologies supported are differently susceptible thereby mitigating risk to overall project. PFIs will be supported to diversify sustainable energy lending portfolio to ensure a mix of borrowers and technologies. Each technology will include optional security measures (e.g. pole mounting and security clamps for PV panels) and training on theft prevention. Also, the scheme inherently focuses on individual or clan-based ownership which experience has demonstrated reduces the likelihood of theft or vandalism by local people as compared to schemes where ownership is less well defined. Overall Rating S S M S S S S 6. Loan/credit conditions and covenants There are no conditions or covenants. D. APPRAISAL SUMMARY 1. Economic and financial analyses Economic Analysis: Economic benefits for households and MSE end-users will derive from the removal of financial and technical barriers which now prohibit these consumers from switching from the use of kerosene and dry-cell batteries for lighting, and the use of diesel for energy generation, to the use of cheaper renewables. The cost of kerosene and diesel, in the Pacific Islands in general and particularly in remote areas and isolated islands, has dramatically increased over the last two years. Data on the amounts households spent on their energy needs in the Pacific is scattered and unreliable. While the Governments of Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea have tried to control the price of kerosene, the reality is that the cost of kerosene 14 outside the capital cities is three to four times the price set by the Government. The average cost of energy in 2002 was between 4 – 8 percent of GDP per capita. Estimated cost due to the high cost of oil and the transportation of oil itself has skyrocketed to between 12 -25 percent of GDP per capita in 20055. The economic analysis based on the above mentioned avoided cost methodology shows an EIRR of 8.7% for the largest, Solar PV component of the project. Limited availability of data did not allow including the consumer surplus and externalities in the analysis. Analyses conducted in other countries show a three fold increase in EIRR when consumer surplus is included (Philippines) and a more than five times of EIRR increase when externalities were accounted for (India). For this project it suffices to indicate that the EIRR based on only the avoided cost calculation is a conservative outcome. Financial Analysis Two types of financial analyses were conducted: (i) an overall analysis for the main component of the project i.e. solar PV systems and (ii) a financial analysis of micro and small enterprises participating under the program. Financial analysis for the project, import duty for the three largest participating countries ranged from 5% in Fiji to 20% in PNG and a weighted average of 18% was used. For the value added tax, PNG charges 10% while SI has 15%, and 11% was used in the calculations. The result is a FIRR of 14%. Investments in MSE projects to be financed under the scheme will be screened by PFIs. It is assumed, as PFIs do not provide loans to loss making enterprises, that these investments will be financially justified. Illustrative projects were analyzed for the following MSEs: retailer and technical service providers of Solar PV, energy services enterprise engaged in the installation and maintenance of fuel switching equipment, pico-hydro end user, and energy efficiency systems provider. The analyses show that these enterprises are profitable, with IRRs ranging 10 to 24%, with one exception of a high 74%. This assumes that they have access to loan funds with terms and conditions as described in the implementation plan. Summaries of these analyses, which should be considered as illustrative examples, are presented in Annex 4. 2. Technical There are no significant technical issues related to Solar PV systems, pico-hydro systems or fuel switching. The Solar PV and Pico hydro systems will follow the same standards that have been widely used in earlier Bank-GEF projects in several countries. While fuel switching is a new commercial activity, it has been used and practiced for many years in individual projects spread out over the Pacific and other countries in Asia. For each country, the EA, with GEF support, will assemble an Approved Product Catalogue containing products offered by retailers which meet pre-defined quality standards. The catalogue will be updated every half year. Participating Financial Institutions can only extend credit under this scheme for items and systems from this Approved Product Catalogue. 3. Fiduciary The Bank’s and IFC’s procurement and financial management arrangements will be agreed at appraisal based on the recommendations of procurement and financial management capacity assessments to be completed during appraisal. 5 Estimates based on IEA and PIREP reports, and rapid appraisals undertaken during identification. 15 4. Social The main social impacts of the project will be on rural households and MSEs. There are no major social issues that could have an adverse effect on the project, apart from the prospect of overall political instability. The major stakeholders/beneficiaries for sustainable energy are: households, who will benefit from access to electricity MSE retailers and technical service providers, which will extend their market and benefit from economies of scale that this project will provide MSEs which will benefit from a cheaper and more reliable form of energy The major stakeholders for energy efficiency are: energy using MSEs, and potential energy efficiency service companies power utilities The major stakeholders common to both sustainable energy and energy efficiency are: financial institutions Individuals and enterprises whose capacity will be built. These groups have been consulted, many individually as well as through public consultation sessions,6 during which the participants had adequate time to express their views, which have been taken into account in project design. The key findings from these sessions are: Access to electricity services in rural areas is a priority for households and enterprises. Sustainable energy is generally perceived as the most feasible means of accessing electricity services, although past experience has not always been good resulting in some negative preconceptions. Women, now responsible for lighting the house, will benefit most from access to modern energy services. The role of government in delivery of rural electricity services is unclear and the private sector has limited financial, management and technical capacity for the task. However, people are aware that previous government subsidized models are unsustainable and that new approaches are required and, most important of all, are willing to pay for working services. General awareness of the cost and benefits of sustainable energy and energy efficiency measures is low; this is especially the case for energy efficiency. There is also a need for training in the technical and management aspects of sustainable energy and energy efficiency. Affordable finance for households and enterprises for any capital investment, including sustainable energy, is generally unavailable even though people are willing to pay reasonable rates of interest. 5. Environment This project is expected to have minimal adverse environmental impacts. The East Asia and Pacific Safeguards Secretariat has reviewed the Project Concept Note and the Integrated 6 Minutes and record of attendance from these consultations in Fiji, PNG and Solomon Islands are in the documents on file. 16 Safeguards Data Sheet (ISDS), and has given this project a Category “C” rating. The major issues are: Safe disposal of the batteries in Solar PV systems; and Any land-use issues associated with the lines coming from pico-hydro systems, which might have to pass over land not belonging to the owner of the pico-hydro. 6. Safeguard policies The technical assistance and investments in Solar PV, pico-hydro and fuel-switching in the project are expected to present minimal environmental risk. Apart from the lead acid batteries in the Solar PV lighting kits, no hazardous materials are involved. Solar PV battery disposal risk. The project was designed to alleviate the disposal risk of these lead acid batteries, which arises for each user when the battery reaches the end of its useful life every three to five years. The initial loan to Solar PV end-users will incorporate an element dedicated to the purchase of the first replacement battery. Arrangements will be made such that, before the finance for the replacement battery is released by the PFI, the old battery is handed in to the retailer. There are environmental laws in all participating countries which categorize batteries as low hazard waste, but enforcement is patchy or non-existent. Project EAs, using project TA funds, will work with the various national environment authorities to develop Codes of Conduct for battery disposal. In Fiji and PNG, battery disposal is now available on a commercial basis for the recovery of the lead. Solar PV suppliers under SEFP in all target countries will be required to use commercial battery disposal points when available and adhere to officially mandated procedures when in place. Low voltage transmission line for pico-hydros. There is a minimal social risk associated with pico-hydro generators where the end-use for the power is located close, but not adjacent to the site of the generator; in such circumstances, a short low voltage transmission line across the intervening land will be needed. PFIs offering finance supported by the RSF will be required to check that the permission of all users of affected lands has been obtained, in accordance with local practices. Monitoring. During implementation, a post audit review will be conducted by the Bank and IFC of (i) the management of battery disposal and (ii) agreements to pass transmission cables across neighbors’ land. Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Environmental Assessment (OP/BP/GP 4.01) Natural Habitats (OP/BP 4.04) Pest Management (OP 4.09) Cultural Property (OPN 11.03, being revised as OP 4.11) Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12) Indigenous Peoples (OD 4.20, being revised as OP 4.10) Forests (OP/BP 4.36) Safety of Dams (OP/BP 4.37) Projects in Disputed Areas (OP/BP/GP 7.60) 17 Yes [ x] [] [] [] [] [] [] [] [] No [] [ x] [ x] [ x] [ x] [ x] [ x] [ x] [ x] Projects on International Waterways (OP/BP/GP 7.50) [] [ x] 7. Policy Exceptions and Readiness The project does not require any exceptions from Bank policies and meets the readiness criteria. 18 Annex 1: Country and Sector or Program Background PACIFIC ISLANDS: Sustainable Energy Finance Project Overview The Pacific Island Countries (PICs) can be divided into three major groups in terms of electricity access: (i) PNG, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu, which have less than 20 percent of the population with electricity access; (ii) Fiji, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI) and Kiribati, with a range of 30 to 65 percent; and (iii) the remainder (Samoa, Tonga, Palua, Tuvalu, Nauru, Niue, Cook Islands and Tokelau), with almost complete access. For the lower and middle group countries, the increase in availability of electricity services will be the result of a combination of increased urbanization (people coming to locations where electricity supply is available) and rural electrification programs (bringing electricity to the people). The provision of electricity in urban areas is dominated by the utilities, with coverage of greater than 85 percent. Substantial support for rural electrification, despite the fact that electrification coverage in rural areas is less than 25 percent of urban coverage, has not been undertaken. This has principally been due to the high costs associated with grid extension or offgrid generation with typical costs of generation over USD1 per kWh for small diesel generators. Despite the very low extent of rural electrification, a widespread program that rapidly expands the proportion of rural electricity consumers will be very expensive and risky. Such an approach is not affordable for public or private sector, and is unlikely to get support from donors. These countries have large and diverse renewable energy resources. They also have large informal rural economies, with most people engaged in subsistence agriculture with low household incomes. As a result, the per capita energy use is low but at the same time constitutes up to 20 percent of household expenditure, most of which is for kerosene and dry cell batteries for poor-quality lighting. This suggests that the rural hardship for many people could be appreciably reduced by improving access to low-cost and affordable electricity services for households and micro and small enterprise. Increasing access to electricity services is therefore a necessity for the promotion of economic growth and improving the quality of lives of rural households. However, the high cost of oil means that, without reducing the dependence on diesel generation, it is not possible to achieve this in a sustainable way. Further, it is unlikely, given the probable scenario that oil prices will continue to rise, that current levels of access can be maintained. The promotion of energy efficiency and the use of low cost off-grid technologies which utilize local renewable energy resources are therefore likely to be a major component of any rural electrification strategy. In this context, renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency interventions offer costeffective options for increasing access to modern energy services for rural households and MSEs. Unfortunately, there are barriers hindering the development of the markets for renewable energy and energy efficiency as shown below in Table 1. Assuming these barriers can be overcome, then substantial market potential exists in the targeted countries as outlined in Table 2 in Attachment 1. 19 Table 1: Barriers to market development for renewable energy and energy efficiency in the Pacific Region Type Technical Market Institutional Financial Renewable Energy Lack of demonstration renewable energy schemes Absence of appropriate technical skills and specifications Lack of knowledge about the renewable energy resources potentials Lack of retail outlets for RE products Lack of private sector involvement in service delivery Perceived high costs of delivering services Inadequate public awareness campaigns Negative past experience creating low consumer confidence in Solar PV Previous donor funded government programs failed to develop local ownership Inadequate capacity to address the challenges of climate change, including the design and implementation of projects Ineffective coordination among stakeholders Energy Efficiency Lack of knowledge on practical energy savings measures and cost-benefit Lack of affordable commercial finance Low investor confidence due to lack of awareness and information Legislation and policies are either not in place or ineffective. Legislative, regulatory and policy Lack of private sector experience Inadequate public awareness campaigns Policies and programs that only provide information may have some positive effect but do not address or overcome behavioral barriers and inertia. Governments tend to begin programs but are seldom consistent in long-term policies and resources Projected savings aren’t believed to justify the investment in time and effort. Finance institutions are not familiar with these investments and consider them as risky. Legislation and policies are either not in place or ineffective. Source: Collated from PIGGAREP Project Brief, PIREP Regional Report 2005, and Bank missions. As in many other developing countries, potential investors face significant difficulties in financing renewable energy schemes and energy efficiency measures. This is especially the case for the private sector, particularly local entrepreneurs, who find it difficult to obtain the necessary debt finance from the financial institutions. Those enterprises engaged in the supply of renewable energy and energy efficiency goods and services are also limited by this lack of available finance. This difficulty does not reflect a lack of liquidity in the PICs financial sector, as there is adequate liquidity. Rather, the financial institutions are reluctant to finance these 20 systems for three reasons. First, the financial institutions have no experience in financing such investments, and view them as risky. Second, these systems generally have high upfront capital costs and low operational costs, which implies that the initial debt requirements are high, leading to a necessary loan term of five to seven years. However, there are often legal or internal barriers that restrict the financial institutions from making loans of the required tenor. Third, the interest rates charged by banks on loans to individuals and MSEs can be high enough to render unaffordable the acquisition of renewable energy systems using bank finance. On the other hand, a number of financial institutions are looking for good projects to finance, including in the rural areas, and provided the other barriers can be mitigated, then favorable loan terms are likely to become available. Fiji Islands Fiji is the second largest of the PICs, with a population in excess of 840,000 growing at a rate of 1.4 percent per year. The nation is an island group located in the tropic zone centered at about 18°S 180°E with two main islands (Viti Levu and Vanua Levu), and approximately 120 sparselyinhabited outer islands. Between 1987 and 2000, Fiji was politically unstable and underwent three coups, partly motivated by racial tensions between ethnic and Indo- Fijians. Presently, GDP is approximately USD2700 per capita with economic growth over the last few years moderate and estimated at 3.0 percent in 2005. However, the proportion of households living in poverty is increasing from an estimated 15 percent in 1983 to nearly 30 percent in 2000. Approximately 48 percent of the population lives in rural areas. The economy is heavily dependent on sugar and other agricultural exports, garments and other manufactured goods, gold and other primary products (timber, timber products, fish) and tourism. The sugar industry, for which approximately 25 percent of households are directly dependent for income, has been in decline since 1994. The Fiji Electricity Authority (FEA) is the public utility responsible for general electrification through the national grid. It has an extensive grid on Viti Levu and three other smaller grids on Vanua Levu and Ovalau, supplied by 14 power stations with a total installed capacity of 194 MW, of which 80 MW is hydro. FEA is presently embarking on an investment program aimed at full renewable supply by 2011. However, only profitable grid extension is undertaken unless funded from external sources. The Fiji Department of Energy (DoE) is therefore the primary agency responsible for rural electrification through its Rural Electrification Unit. The existing policy of the MWE is to support rural electrification through a 90 percent subsidy scheme of households which includes grid extension, as well as off-grid schemes such as micro-hydro or small diesel generator schemes. Lack of technical and management skills and the cost of maintenance and operating costs for the community diesel schemes has meant earlier failure of the majority of schemes. This has led to a low coverage rate and poor quality of access to electricity services and a growing dependency on subsidies. The MWE has also instigated a Renewable Energy Service Companies (RESCO) scheme which provides Solar PV home lighting systems to more than 500 households on a rental basis. The Public Works Department (PWD) also operates diesel generators at five government stations where the cost of supply is estimated as averaging FJD2.44/kWh. As a result, approximately 35 percent of households do not have access to any form of electricity service. 21 For the households without access to electricity (including those in defunct DoE diesel schemes), there is a reliance on electricity substitutes such as kerosene/benzine, dry-cell batteries, and Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). These households have an average monthly expenditure on kerosene/benzene for lighting and dry-cell batteries of approximately FJD19 with 36 percent spending between FJD22 and FJD42 monthly and 37 percent between FJD12 and FJD22. For the 19,000 households in the MWE community diesel schemes, of which more than 650 schemes have been installed, the communities spend FJD150-250 per month on diesel alone. These groups exhibit different energy expenditure patterns some of which can be avoided through the adoption of renewable energy household systems. Solar PV or pico-hydro has the potential to avoid the majority of expenditure on kerosene and dry-cell batteries. Switching from diesel to locally-produced coconut oil has the potential to reduce diesel fuel costs by between 20 percent and 60 percent. The MWE estimates 12,000 un-electrified households are potential users of solar PV, another 5,000 (especially those in mountainous high rainfall areas where solar is less viable) are viable for pico-hydro, and a potential 3000 households in the community diesel schemes are viable for fuel switching. This indicates a potential market of 20,000 households to gain access to electricity services. The barriers to development of these markets include: lack of awareness of renewable energy options, high initial capital cost and lack of affordable finance, and limited access to technical services. Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea is the largest of the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) with a population of approximately 5.6 million, presently growing at a rate of 3.5 percent, dispersed over 600 islands. Nearly half the population is under 17 years of age and the life expectancy is the lowest of the PICs. Approximately 87 percent of the population lives in rural areas. Over the last 10 years, economic growth has averaged less than 3 percent annually in real terms resulting in an effective drop in real GDP per capita to USD582. In 2000, some 2 million people, 37.5 percent of the population lived in households where the real value of consumption per adult equivalent was below the poverty line. Almost 94 percent of these poor households live in rural areas, mostly in the highlands and Mamose regions. There are more than 860 languages in PNG, a third of the world’s languages. The dual economy, a characteristic common in many developing countries, is particularly pronounced in the case of PNG. The formal economy is dominated by mining and petroleum sector, which is also the largest exporter and provides more than a third of government revenue. Formal agricultural activities also contribute substantially to GDP. Only 18 percent of rural households are engaged in the formal sector whereas the majority of the population leads a subsistence lifestyle. The expenditure on energy is closely linked with wealth as poor households expend up to 32 percent more of their income to meet their energy needs than wealthy households. The corporatised national utility, PNG Power, operates three interconnected distribution systems and about 15 mini-grids at the main provincial centers serving a total of 73,000 customers. There is a total installed capacity of 350 MW -- half of which is hydro and half diesel with approximately 40 MW of this de-rated due to lack of maintenance. PNG Power is operating well below the government required 10 percent rate of return and, as grid extension is unprofitable, there is no extension activity unless it is funded from external sources. There are also about 80 22 small rural electricity schemes which serve key administrative and service centers called Ccenters. These C-centers are operated by district or provincial authorities although most are out of service or provide only limited duty periods. Industrial auto-producers (mostly mines), many small stand-alone generators or hydros, and one IPP increase the total installed capacity to approximately 600 MW providing about 2,600 GWh per annum. PNG Power provides power to only 5 percent of the households nationally, accounting for 82 percent of customers but 11 percent of sales with the domestic tariff at PGK0.40 per kWh (USD0.13). It is likely that more than 90 percent of the population is not electrified by any means -- grid, self-generation, nearby industry, small-scale hydro or solar -- which makes PNG one of the lowest electricity coverage areas in the world. The energy consumption patterns of rural households reveal a high dependence on traditional fuels, low or no access to electricity and reliance on electricity substitutes (especially kerosene and dry-cell batteries) for basic lighting. In some cases, wealthier households, family groups or small enterprises may purchase a small generator although the high cost of operation and unreliable supply of fuel means it is rarely used. Household expenditure on kerosene varies considerably depending on income and access to supply. A typical salaried household such as a teacher or health worker may spend 65 Kina per month on kerosene for lighting, whereas a farmer with some small cash income from beetle nut or fishing may spend only 25 Kina per month. Other income-earning households, such as those engaged in coffee, cocoa or palm oil, or who are recipients of resource rental payments, will also have comparable expenditure on kerosene. Households in remote areas, leading purely subsistence lifestyles, are unlikely to use kerosene at all. PNG has substantial untapped hydro, solar and biomass resources. Investment by individual households and micro- and small enterprises in Solar PV and pico-hydro has the potential for substantial savings by avoiding expenditure on kerosene and dry-cell batteries. There are presently more than 130,000 salaried people working in rural areas, more than 520,000 engaged in reliable cash cropping activities such as coffee, cocoa and oil palm; more than 36,000 micro enterprises such as local commodity resellers, artisans and sewing; more than 15,000 small enterprises such as coffee processing, trade stores and food shops. If 11% percent of this market was developed then this would result in a potential 80,000 households and 5,100 MSEs with access to electricity. Solar PV home lighting systems presently retail for PGK42-52 per Wp; pico-hydro systems for PGK 15-20 per Wp; and using locally-produced coconut oil instead of diesel can reduce fuel costs by between 10 and 30 percent (e.g., presently in Bougainville, refined coconut oil retails for PGK2 per litre whereas diesel is PGK2.80 per litre representing a 21 percent reduction in fuel costs). The high initial investment costs, difficulty in accessing technologies and technical services, low awareness of renewable energy options and lack of affordable finance pose the main barriers to improving access to these electricity services. Republic of Marshall Islands The Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI) is made of 29 atolls of which 22 are inhabited, covering about 181km2 (less than 10m above the mean sea level). The population of more than 51,000 live in approximately 6,500 households, with 68 percent living in the two main atolls of Majuro and Ebeye. The typical outer atoll will have about 80 to 100 islets and anywhere from three to four modest-sized communities, ranging from 100 to 400 people. RMI remains heavily dependent on external assistance with foreign aid, mostly from the USA, representing 60 percent of GDP. The 23 GDP per capita is approximately USD1,817 and has dropped by up to 35 percent since 1995 due principally to a reduction in aid grants. The workforce represents 51 percent of the population, though less than a third of these are in rural areas; however, 45 percent are in paid employment with the rest engaged in subsistence activities. For rural households, small cash incomes from agricultural products (essentially copra) are supplemented by remittances from family living in urban centers. In 1999, the average income for urban households was USD10,930 whereas rural households received USD3,880 (with a large variance). The ADB estimates that 66 percent of the population in the outer areas (1,400 households) lives below the poverty line. The energy sector is managed at the national level by the state-owned utility, Marshall Energy Company (MEC), which supplies Majuro, Jaluit and Wotje with an installed capacity of 29 MW diesel (de-rated) delivering 81.3 GWh to 3,528 customers in 2003. The second largest power system is KAJUR on Ebeye, with an installed capacity of 2.5 MW, providing 19.2 GWh to 937 customers. The domestic tariff is presently USD0.225 per kWh. The expansion of coverage of these two schemes has remained steady at 5 percent for the last few years. There are additional small diesel schemes run by local authorities in two outer atolls, supplying roughly 100 customers. There is also substantial experience with Solar PV, and in 1999 it was estimated that 5 percent of households were using this supply. Solar PV is also widely used in schools and health centers. MEC has contracted to the government to coordinate these Solar PV activities possibly via a RESCO approach. In 1999, 37 percent of households did not have access to electricity, it is likely that this figure has declined and is estimated at approximately 25 percent of households due to gradually increase to almost complete coverage in the main population centers, but also expansion of Solar PV coverage in rural areas. However, the 25 percent (1,650) of households without access are almost all in the rural areas. The frequent energy forms used for lighting in rural households include electricity from a generator supply (13.4 percent), kerosene wick lamps (70.8 percent), Solar PV system (15 percent) and other (0.7 percent). Wood is the predominant fuel for cooking for rural households (78.5 percent), with kerosene the next most prevalent (40.5 percent), and with charcoal growing in popularity. Typical household expenditure on kerosene for lighting and dry-cell batteries for radios and torches is USD22-40 per month. The availability and utilization of Solar PV has penetrated more widely here than in PNG or the Solomon Islands. The opportunities for economic activity from improved access to electricity include fish and food storage, small fresh product retailing, battery recharging, eco-tourism, improved communications and community activities. RMI is a low-lying atoll country and, as such, there is no potential for hydro. However, there is excellent insolation and so Solar PV is widely used and desired. Solar PV has been supported by donor programs and schemes involving RESCO type approaches have been undertaken by the Government Energy Office. These projects installed 75 to 100 Wp systems for a monthly rental charge of up to US10 and have had mixed success for a range of technical and management reasons. These schemes are about to be contracted to MEC which, it is anticipated, will address many of these problems. There is one solar retailer in RMI and installed systems cost approximately USD18-20 per Wp. MEC imports equipment from the United States and installed cost is USD22.5 per Wp. There is also local experience using coconut oil as a diesel substitute and coconut oil is available for USD1.50 per gallon (compared to diesel at USD1.90 per gallon). 24 In 2004, RMI produced 4,500 tons of copra, which is sold via the Pacific International Inc (PII) company, who also produced coconut oil for export and for use in vehicles and small generators. PII estimates that copra production could be expanded to 18,500 tonnes. Local retailers estimate a potential market of at least 2,000 Solar PV systems; with fuel switching of small diesel generators accounting for a possible 50 installations. No potential for pico-hydros is evident. Solomon Islands The Solomon Islands is the third-largest island nation. It has a population of more than 460,000 dispersed over 300 islands, living in approximately 65,000 households. A population growth rate of 2.8 percent, and per capita GDP of USD600 contribute to making the Solomon Islands one of the poorest and most vulnerable of the PICs. Poverty remains widespread particularly in rural areas where 85 to 90 percent of the population lives, with most relying on subsistence agriculture and fishing as a primary source of income. The country is slowly recovering from civil unrest that erupted into open conflict in June 2000. Since mid-2003, security has improved significantly with the arrival of the Australian Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands which is expected to remain in place for many years. The formal sector is mainly government, agriculture, forestry and fishing and involves approximately 21,000 employees of which at least 12,000 are in rural areas. The informal sector includes activities such as copra, cocoa, forestry, commodity selling, vegetable growing, home sewing, fishing and similar part-time activities and is by far the dominant income producing activity for rural communities. A high proportion of informal sector workers are women and these activities provide small, but important, income streams necessary to meet family needs including school fees. The Solomon Islands Electricity Authority (SIEA) is the corporatised public utility which is responsible for electric power supply and distribution in the capital (Honiara), the nine provincial centers, and the township adjoining the Noro fish processing facility. The present installed capacity is in excess of 22 MW of which 0.18 MW is from two micro-hydro schemes, giving a total consumption in excess of 30 GWh. The SIEA management has recently undergone review with the assistance of the World Bank and a management contractor about to be appointed. Domestic tariff is SID1.3175 per kWh (USD0.18 per kWh). Other generation is provided by private companies (2 percent) typically plantations and fish processing plants, individually owned systems (1 percent) and other sources such as shared connections, mission or community schemes (1 percent). In Honiara, 73 percent of households have electricity whereas in the provinces access is only 9 percent. Overall, at least 90 percent of the population is without access to any electrical supply. In the rural areas, more than 95 percent (which equates to 56,000 rural households) are without service. There is good renewable energy resource potential in the form of small-scale hydro, solar, and coconut oil as a substitute for diesel. The high insolation rates mean that Solar PV is a viable option in most parts of the nation. There are also significant hydro resources, with at least 326 MW of small-scale hydro potential identified across seven of the islands. Coconut oil production is well established and local experience has verified its use as a diesel substitute in generators. Coconut oil production levels peaked at more than 10,000 tonnes in 1999 and it is reported, at that time, that 47 percent of rural households are involved in copra production. Given the relative importance of copra as a cash crop to rural households, the use of coconut oil as a fuel has the 25 potential to improve domestic copra markets in such a way as to produce broad rural development benefits. As in most PICs, the energy consumption of rural households is dominated by traditional fuels such as firewood and coconut shells. For lighting in un-electrified rural households, kerosene is widely used as are dry-cell batteries for torches and radios. Salaried workers, including private sector as well as teachers and health workers typically spend in the order of SID90-120 per month on kerosene and dry-cell batteries. Other informal cash earning households engaged in agricultural activities, such as cocoa, copra, fishing, forestry spend SID30-50 per month, provided they have access to a reliable supplier. More able households, micro and small enterprises, or institutions such as schools and missions, may have a generator; however, access to petrol or diesel is unreliable and expensive so generator use is not as widespread as in many other PICs. Investment in Solar PV, pico-hydro and fuel switching has the potential to avoid much of the expenditure of households and enterprises on kerosene and dry-cell batteries for lighting, and on diesel. The main barriers are the lack of awareness of renewable energy options, high initial capital cost and lack of affordable finance, and limited access to technical services. The retail sector for Solar PV and pico-hydro is particularly limited with only one specialized retailer of Solar PV and no marketing of pico-hydro. Presently, Solar PV is retailing for approximately SID86 per Wp and imported pico-hydro costs SID 45 per Wp. However, there are 12,000 rural households receiving salaries and more than 18,000 engaged in key income producing activities such as agriculture, copra, cocoa and fishing. MSEs represent another potential market of at least 2000 customers. The potential market for Solar PV is estimated to be at least 9,000 Solar PV systems and an estimated 500 pico-hydro and 500 fuel switching installations, mostly for MSEs. While it appears possible for these moderate-consumption groups to fund these investments from the avoided costs of kerosene and batteries, this is unlikely to be the case for the many lowconsumption households. Vanuatu Vanuatu is a nation of over 80 islands, of which 65 are inhabited with a population of 205,000 living in approximately 40,000 households. The population is growing at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent, with 42 percent of the population below 15 years of age. The three most populous islands -- Efate, Santo and Tanna -- are home to 50 percent of the population, and 78 percent of the population lives in the rural areas. Presently, GDP per capita is USD699 and while real growth is approximately 3 percent, it is barely keeping pace with population so that the growth per capita is marginal. There are more than 100 spoken languages of which Bislama is spoken by 25 percent of the population. Nearly 80 percent of the population is engaged in subsistence agriculture and contributes only 10 percent to the formal economy, where the formal economy is characterized by a small, high-cost modern sector. Rural incomes are less than 10 percent of urban incomes although this data does perhaps not reflect the large proportion of urban salaries which are remitted to rural areas. The last 10 years has seen a change in the main economic activities away from the primary sector to services. The main income producing activities in rural areas is copra, cocoa, Kava, cattle and forestry, with approximately 10 percent of the formal sector based in rural areas. 26 Vanuatu has largely privatized its electricity supply sector through the use of long-term concessions, with the government retaining a 16 percent share of the company. This private utility, UNELCO, has provided electricity to the capital Port Vila and Luganville for several decades, recently extending to two townships on other islands. The transfer of management to the private sector has raised the quality of service. However, the absence of open competition in tendering for the concession and the lack of legal and regulatory basis for monitoring and constraining the monopoly held by UNELCO has resulted in relatively high power tariffs for consumers, and electricity supply is focused primarily in the urban centers. Domestic electricity costs in Vanuatu are relatively high for the region at around USD0.25 per kWh (compared to USD0.18 per kWh in Solomon Islands). In 2002, UNELCO had a peak demand of 8.2MW and sold 34 GWh in Port Vila, which accounts for 85 percent of demand and 70 percent of customers. Diesel accounted for 93 percent of generation and hydro the rest. The Energy Unit within the Ministry of Lands, Geology, Mines, Energy, Environment and Water Resources formulates energy policy; however, this is about to be reformed. The Energy Unit has also undertaken at least eight rural Solar PV projects with mixed success. There are many small generators in operation in able households and at missions and service centers, although these provide very limited service. Overall, at least 60 percent of urban households -- but only 6.9 percent of rural households -- have access to electricity services of any kind. More than 86 percent of rural households (24,000) use kerosene as their primary source of light, typically costing households on the main islands VUV1,300 to 6000 per month. Additional expenditure on dry-cell batteries and candles can be of the order of VUV 1,500 per month. On outer islands, possibly due to unreliable supply and also low household incomes, this energy expenditure drops to VUV400 to 800 per month. Due to the unreliable supply of fuel, generators operated by MSEs in rural areas are often under utilized. Vanuatu has good renewable energy resources and solid experience with Solar PV, micro-hydro, and coconut oil as a substitute for diesel. Presently hydro provides 7 percent of national supply and there is another 75 kW scheme being prepared. Presently, there is limited local technical capacity and only one retailer of pico-hydro equipment. The Energy Unit has identified suitable sites presenting more than 1.5 MW of micro-hydro potential. Solar PV is a viable option for most areas in the country due to the high insolation rates and, as such, this technology has received wide support from donors and government. There are several retailers offering a range of products and small solar lighting kits are available for VUV3,000 to 4,500 per Wp. Retailers estimate a potential of more than 4,000 systems. Vanuatu also has probably the most experience, of all the PICs, with coconut oil as a diesel substitute. With an annual output of around 40,000 tonnes of copra, there is potential to locally produce about 29.7M liters of coconut oil which, in principle, would completely displace imported diesel. There are two established private firms in Port Vila producing and retailing coconut oil for use in diesel vehicles and generators. Financial System Structure in Participating Countries Fiji (Source IMF 2003) Fiji’s banking system is highly intermediated for its relative size, predominantly foreign owned and with major banks operating as branches rather than subsidiaries of their overseas parent fund. The system consists of five commercial banks (ANZ, Westpac, Colonial National Bank, Baroda and Habib, all foreign owned, totaling 35 percent of financial system assets); three credit 27 institutions (4 percent of assets), 10 insurance companies (9 percent), one development bank (6 percent), one pension fund (FNPF – holding 45 percent of finance system assets) and a series of small non-bank institutions (less than 1 percent). ANZ and Wespac hold 80 percent of the commercial banking market but Colonial holds the most of the rural segment since it holds the postal deposit function (8 percent of total market share). Oversight is the responsibility of the Reserve Bank of Fiji, which has specific rules for commercial banks on single client exposure (maximum 25 percent of capital base), specific riskcapital ratio (8-10 percent depending on type of capital), and maximum foreign currency exposure (maximum 25 percent of capital base), and it enforces loan classification and the corresponding provision requirements. PNG (Source BPNG website 2005, IMF 2006) The financial system comprises four commercial banks -- ANZ, Westpac, Bank South Pacific (BSP), Maybank -- and 10 other licensed financial institutions as well as 10 superannuation (pension) funds and 21 savings and loan societies. The rural development bank, RDB, is being restructured after being declared insolvent in 2004. All are supervised by the Bank of Papua New Guinea (BPNG). BSP holds 55 percent of the commercial banking market, with the other three sharing almost equally in the balance. The BPNG has specific rules on single client exposure (max 25 percent of capital base), on loan classification and gradual provisions, on risk-capital ratio (6-12 percent) and on foreign currency exposure (max 15 percent of capital base). Republic of Marshall Islands (Source IMF 2006) In the RMI, the US Dollar is the domestic legal tender, there is therefore no central bank and the key banking rules are from the US Federal Reserve Bank. It should be noted that while RMI was removed in 2002 from the list of non-cooperative countries with regards to money laundering, it is still on the OECD tax haven list. The financial sector comprises two commercial Banks: Bank of Marshall Islands (BoMI) and Bank of Guam (BoG), a few insurance agencies, one money remitter and a development bank. The banking sector is characterized by high intermediation costs and low level of domestic lending. A substantial proportion of the lending is held outside the country which makes BoG the dominant bank since it is the only one which can conduct external banking operation after BoMI lost its international banking correspondents in 2004. Solomon Island (source IMF 2004) Solomon’s financial system assets equate to 85 percent of total GDP. The system includes a Central Bank (CBSI, at 22 percent of GDP), three commercial banks (ANZ, Westpac, and National Bank of Solomon Island-NBSI totaling 30 percent of GDP), one pension fund (NPF, at 24 percent of GDP), one development bank (DBSI, at 3 percent of GDP), and a few relatively small non-bank institutions. The foreign-owned banks, ANZ and Westpac, hold close to 50 percent of the commercial banking market, with NBSI holding the other half. NBSI is the only bank substantially represented outside the capital region. The pension fund NPF also plays a crucial role in lending to households, since members can use up to 66 percent of their contributions as collateral for commercial bank loans. 28 The CBSI has specific rules on single client exposure (max 25 percent of capital base), on loan classification and provisions, and on risk-capital ratio (10-15 percent). No data is available on maximum foreign currency exposure. Vanuatu (source IMF 2005) Vanuatu’s financial system met substantial changes following the 1998 crisis but is still composed of both an on-shore and an off-shore system. Assets of the on-shore system equate to 175 percent of total GDP. The system includes a central bank (RBV, at 20 percent of GDP), three commercial banks -- ANZ, Westpac, and National Bank of Vanuatu (NBVI), totaling 140 percent of GDP, one pension fund (VNPF, at 15 percent of GDP), and a few non-bank institutions that are relatively small. There was a development bank (DBV) which was closed following the 1998 crisis; there are ongoing discussions to restart it. ANZ has the largest market share in commercial banking; however, only NBVI extends its lending to the rural areas and across the islands even if in a limited fashion. The off-shore system is composed of seven active banks (assets totaling 140 percent of GDP), a dramatic decrease down from the 100 plus existing before the 1998 and September 11, 2001 crises, and following the work done on money laundering that led to the passing of the International Banking Act in 2003. The RBV has specific rules on single client exposure (max 25 percent of capital base), on loan classification and provisions, on risk-capital ratio (8 percent) and on foreign currency exposure. 29 Attachment 1 of Annex 1 Table 2: Potential market share by country and technology Technologies Potential Investors Targets Market Share (%) PNG Solar PV 80,000 16,000 20% Pico-hydro Fuel switching 8,000 3,000 300 400 4% 10% Solar PV 12,000 2000 17% Pico-hydro Fuel switching 5,000 3,000 150 220 3% 7% 9,000 1750 19% Pico-hydro 500 65 13% Fuel switching 500 50 10% 4,000 800 20% Pico-hydro Fuel switching 100 400 20 50 20% 13% RMI Solar PV 2000 450 23% 0 50 0 20 40% TOTAL Solar PV 109,500 21,000 19% Pico-hydro Fuel switching 13,610 7,150 535 740 3% 9% Fiji Solomon Islands Solar PV Vanuatu Solar PV Pico-hydro Fuel switching 30 ANNEX 2: MAJOR RELATED PROJECTS FINANCED BY THE BANK AND/OR OTHER AGENCIES This annex lists the major projects and programs that are related to the SEFP project and that are developed either by the World Bank Group or other agencies. These projects are listed by participating country and grouped under three headings: (i) Energy-related programs; (ii) Other non-energy World Bank Group programs; and (iii) Other non-energy programs developed by other agencies. (i) Energy-related programs relevant to the SEFP project World Bank In the last five years, the Bank has undertaken only one directly connected project in this region in the energy sector: the PNG Teachers Solar Lighting Project, which became effective in September 2005. The project will improve the life of rural human services providers by making available affordable, environmentally sound, basic electricity services from Solar PV. This will help improve teacher and health worker retention by reducing isolation (through access to radio and other communications) and providing safer and better living conditions (through access to lower-cost, better quality lighting). The main global environmental objective is to create early markets for Solar PV household electrification and build the capacity on the part of all market participants (providers, purchasers, and lenders) needed to rapidly scale up renewable energy applications. In Solomon Island, the Improve Energy Supply TA is also being prepared. It will provide technical assistance for the financial restructuring of Solomon Islands Electricity Authority (SIEA), for regulatory reform and capacity building. ADB REEP is a technical assistance project of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), funded by the Danish Government and is intended to provide capacity building assistance to Fiji and Samoa. The overall goal of the project is to help Fiji and Samoa increase their capacity to develop, fund and implement RE and energy efficiency projects while emphasizing market driven structures. ADB has also been working on a Rural Electrification lending project scheduled for 2005 in Fiji for an amount of USD10 million, which was canceled. ADB and the World Bank are now working together on financial support for FEA to meet existing and new demand with sustainable energy solutions, based on least cost analysis, to help ensure that Fiji has a secure, continuous and reliable power supply. This replace all their diesel generation with sustainable energy. This GEF project also contributes to achieve this objective. European Union Under the 9th European Development Fund (EDF) (2002-2007), the EU is financing energyrelated projects, programs and technical assistance in one of the countries involved in the SEFP, namely RMI. RMI will use 65 percent of Euro3.5 million from the EDF to focus on developing cost effective and reliable renewable energy sources – an activity which also receives parallel 31 support from the Government of France and the United Nations Department of Social Affairs. The Project will work closely with this project, Training and TA provided under this programme will dovetail with the technologies financed by the RSF. (Letter of intent to collaborate in Documents on File) UNDP UNDP has started implementation of its Regional Energy Programme for Poverty Reduction (REP-PoR) in the Pacific Islands. Its focuses on providing access to energy through technical assistance to local communities. One of the activities started under this program is assistance to local entrepreneurs in Fiji and Solomons Islands, with the development of business plans to be financed under this project. UNDP has a regional project under preparation, namely the Pacific Islands Greenhouse Gas Abatement through Renewable Energy Project (PIGGAREP). It will contribute to the removal of the major barriers to the widespread utilization of RE technologies (RETs). The project covering the PICs is expected to: (i) increase the number of successful commercial RE applications; (ii) expand the market for RETs applications; (iii) enhance institutional capacity to design, implement and monitor RE projects; (iv) increase availability and accessibility of financing to existing and new RE projects; (v) strengthen legal and regulatory structures in the energy and environmental sectors; and, (vi) increased awareness and knowledge on RE and RETs among key stakeholders. (ii) Other non-energy World Bank Programs relevant to the SEFP project Pacifics Support for small to medium enterprises (TA). The IFC program in the Pacifics will continue to be delivered by the Pacific Enterprise Development Facility (PEDF). PEDF, will focus work on providing access to finance, by providing TA and training to local financial institutions, and strengthening of business associations. Under this program IFC will include training to PFI in this project, focusing on building and implanting a successful energy portfolio. Under the business association’s work, PEDF will assist this project with TA and training for associations of Solar PV retailers. From 2006/2008, the program will be extended to include agribusiness and urban poor initiatives reflecting the shift in emphasis by PEDF to Melanesia. Fiji Increasing efficiency of public expenditure (TA, initiated 10/18/2004). A continuation of the upward trends in fiscal deficit and public debt would pose a risk to economic growth. The government has launched a far-reaching program of public sector reform consisting of financial management reform, civil service reform and public enterprise reform. The Bank is looking to develop a program of targeted assistance for public sector reform to help the government achieve its objectives for fiscal consolidation, in particular a reduction in wages and salaries from 11 to 9 percent of GDP. Developing alternative sources of private sector growth (TA). To cushion the employment and poverty impact of a contraction of the sugar and textiles sectors, structural reforms to boost private sector growth and job creation will be important. To contribute to this agenda, a WBG 32 trust fund, the Foreign Investment Advisory Services (FIAS) to provide technical assistance for a private sector development program focused on regulatory reform, initially supporting the government’s reforms to the foreign investment legislation and approval process (later broadening to other ‘Doing Business’ priorities). Reducing telecommunications costs (TA, initiated 10/29/2004). Reducing Fiji’s high telecommunications costs and improving access could significantly boost private sector investment and growth. There is currently a monopoly arrangement for the provision of telecommunication services with the government, including holdings controlled by the National Provident Fund, being the main shareholder. This arrangement constrains the ability to introduce a more competitive cost regime and improve services. The Bank is providing the government with technical advice to highlight the options possible through a more liberalized sector. Micronesia The Bank does not have an active program currently, but stands ready to build its relationship with the FSM over 2005 to 2008. The Bank recognizes that the FSM has access to substantial grant assistance from other development partners, particularly the US and Japan. Any potential Bank involvement will hinge on our ability to effectively leverage the key donor resources and build local capacity. The Bank has held initial consultations with the government on areas of possible support and expects an agreement on these to be concluded in the near future. Tentatively, the discussions encompass two broad areas: (i) to assist in encouraging the growth of the private sector through targeted interventions (e.g., through support for tax, and infrastructure reforms), and (ii) to further the public expenditure management reform agenda, such as by enhancing the government’s ability to maintain key assets, particularly as the FSM strives to adapt to scheduled reductions in direct US Compact funding. Marshall Islands The Marshall Islands became a World Bank member in 1992. Since that time, the Bank’s assistance has been limited to the involvement in a range of regional initiatives and a few specific technical assistance activities. With the presence of other donors, particularly the United States (under the Compact of Free Association), the Bank will be seeking to play a selective role in the Marshall Islands, focusing on policy advice to leverage donor resources and build local capacity. The Bank has held initial consultations, which will continue, with the government. Solomon Islands Economic/Structural Reform (TA). The World Bank intends to work closely with other partners, in particular Australia and the ADB, on economic analysis and advice, including in the areas of decentralization and inter-governmental fiscal relations. The World Bank will provide technical support to the Economic Reform Unit. Reduce telecommunications costs and improve service (TA, initiated 02/12/2004). The availability of telecommunications services is low in absolute terms, particularly in rural and remote areas. Mobile and internet use are also comparably low. The market structure is monopolistic and the government’s capacity to regulate the provider is limited. The Bank is providing technical assistance to the government to look at the ways to introduce a more competitive environment, thereby lowering costs and improving service quality and coverage. 33 Financial sector recovery and development: Central Bank Capacity Building Project (TA, IDF Grant of USD254,000; initiated December 2003) and National Provident Fund (TA). All financial institutions in the Solomon Islands were under stress due to the breakdown in fiscal discipline which resulted in government defaulting on its debts to both banks and non-bank financial institutions. While the private sector remains constrained by limited access to credit, near term efforts have focused on arrears repayments and financial reconstruction. The Bank has contributed to these efforts through technical assistance and policy support to the National Provident Fund and the Central Bank. The Bank has also mobilized an Institutional Development Fund (IDF) to help strengthen the Central Bank’s capacity for effective economic and financial management. Vanuatu Regulatory reform to reduce the costs of doing business (TA). The Bank proposes to facilitate a discussion with the government on its priorities for improving the environment for private sector development, and potential options for the Bank to contribute to this. The recent work on “Doing Business” indicators will be used to contribute to this, as will FIAS work on the development of Vanuatu’s national investment policy statement and possible follow-up. Improving the performance of public utilities: Developing a Multi-sector Utilities Regulatory Body (USD227,500 PPIAF Grant for TA; approved 12/01/2003). In line with a focus on the business environment, the Bank sees potential for improving the service of key public utilities. Vanuatu has taken significant steps to improve delivery of utility services, approaches which have potential application in other Pacific countries. The Bank has completed an initial analytical assessment focusing on electricity, water and telecommunications, and is willing to work with the government to identify areas where institutional and technical capacity can be strengthened. Subject to further discussions with the government, the Bank will aim to follow up on this work to assist in putting improvements in place. The Bank sees an opportunity to include Vanuatu in its regional focus on telecommunications reform. PNG Road Maintenance and Rehabilitation Project (Loan, USD40 million, Approved 2002). This project promotes an efficient, safe, and reliable roads transport system in participating provinces. The six components provide for national and provincial road and bridge maintenance and rehabilitation, including replacement of bridges on national roads as well as purchase of emergency bridges and bridge parts. (iii) Non-energy Programs developed by other agencies but relevant to the SEFP project ADB ADB is active in all SEFP countries. It provides private sector support and infrastructure development. In Fiji, the ADB has three active lending operations with commitments totaling USD103.8 million (Suva-Nausori Water Supply and Sewerage project, Third Road Upgrading project, and Fiji Ports Development.). Five lending operations are scheduled: Airports 34 Rehabilitation and Upgrading, Road Upgrading, Urban Sector Development, Rural and Outer Islands Development and Energy Sector Reforms, in collaboration with the World Bank. In the Marshal Islands, ADB has active or planned lending operations in the outer island infrastructure and urban waste. In Solomon Island, due to the debt situation, and in consideration of the availability of significant external grant funding, the decision has been taken not to pursue further lending in the short- to medium-term. Non-lending products include Inter-island Transport Reforms, Business Environment Reforms, Ministry of Infrastructure Development Reform, and Private Sector Participation Program. In Vanuatu, ADB has no active loans at present with none identified in the pipeline. Non-lending products include: Corporatization of the Ports Authority and Rural Productive Skills Development. AusAid (Australia) Although with solid presence in the PIC region, AusAid concentrates on in the health, education and justice sectors with an emphasis on improved service delivery of public services to rural and peri-urban areas. Programs include: support to civil society groups, support of the Government’s law and order strategy, planning, management, provision of monitoring of education services, the Australian Development Scholarship program, training of community health staff, and refurbishment of existing hospitals. In PNG, AusAid also gets involved in substantial infrastructure projects such as road and bridge maintenance and restoration, airport maintenance and civil aviation reforms. The AusAid supported Community Development Services will be working actively with this project, by facilitating communities’ access to the resources this project has to offer (Letter of Support in Documents on File). Japan Japan has very little lending in the region but provides TA in industrial development, vocational training, SME development, infrastructure (SIWA, Solomon Islands), environmental conservation and waste management. United States In Micronesia and Marshall Islands, the USA provides support under the Compact of Free Association. This compact is structured in terms of a sector grant and a Trust Fund, with a gradual increase in trust fund contributions offset by a corresponding annual reduction in the sector grants. Funds are allocated to activities in six priority sectors: infrastructure, education; health care; private sector development; environment, and; capacity building. Others Other key actors are NZaid, which provides funds towards community development and governance; EU, which provides support s through its EDF program micro-projects and small business development, (Letter of Collaboration with EU-Micro-Project Programme Phase II (Solomon Islands) in Documents on File), with governance and education; and most of the UN agencies, which participate in various activities. 35 Annex 3: Results Framework and Monitoring PACIFIC ISLANDS: Sustainable Energy Finance Project Results Framework PDO Significantly increase the adoption and use of renewable energy technologies in participating Pacific Island states through a package of incentives to encourage local financial institutions to participate in sustainable energy finance in support of equipment purchase and private sector energy service delivery. The global environment objective is to contribute to mitigating climate change through the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in line with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Intermediate Outcomes Project Outcome Indicators 1. Increased market for renewable energy and energy efficiency goods and services in the target country markets, as measured by the number of units and 2. aggregate generation capacity 3. and kWh saved through energy efficiency investments Use of Project Outcome Information During the project: refine and expand the approach and replicate to other PICs. At end of project: determine overall impact of project. 4. Increased financial resources that are allocated by FIs, individuals and MSEs to fund the growth of sustainable energy and energy efficiency. 5. CO2 emissions avoided. Intermediate Outcome Indicators Use of Intermediate Outcome Monitoring Component 1: Risk Sharing Fund Suitable financial products are offered and utilized for renewable energy and energy efficiency. 6. Number of financial institutions that offer suitable financial products. 7. Number of clients who utilize these financial products and repay in a timely manner” During the project: refine and expand financial products to increase the volume of finance available for renewable energy goods and services and decrease the GEF subsidy required. At project end: evaluate contribution to financial sector and provide information on future development alternatives. Component 2: Technical Assistance FIs have established renewable energy/energy efficiency loan portfolios Increase in commercially viable retail outlets for RE products. Interactive video training modules for each of the technical components utilized by participating households and MSEs. Mass media and general public are 8. Volume of current and historically aggregated energy portfolio FIs 9. Number of new RE products outlets and their financial performance 10.Participants use knowledge obtained during training on the maintenance of their equipment. 11.Number of articles and broadcasts on 36 During the project - Refine and expand technical and financial products so that they are more attractive to participants; and adjust training and communication scope and focus. At project end – evaluate effectiveness and appropriateness of technical and financial products and training for target country markets. regularly communicating the the benefits or renewable energy and benefits of renewable energy and energy efficiency energy efficiency Component 3: Incentive/Output based participant monitoring Timely and accurate feedback on the status of the project, and impact on their lives, as perceived by the participants 12. Surveys received and accepted During the project – Refine and expand the project based on the participant feedback At project end – Evaluate impact on economic and social characteristics of participating households Component 4: Management and Evaluation Developed capacity in the target countries for the implementation of renewable energy and energy efficiency programs Two comprehensive evaluations with recommendations for (i) expanding the RSF (or not) and (ii) exit strategy 13. Effectiveness of project implementation according to the project plan 14. Agreement on expansion of the RSF 15. Agreement on exit strategy 37 During the project – monitoring effectiveness of management and administrative structure of project; At project end – Evaluate the management approach and identify lessons for replication to other projects Arrangements for results monitoring Data Collection and Reporting Target Values Project Outcome Indicators Baseline YR2 YR3 YR4 YR5 YR6 YR7 1000 2000 4000 4000 4000 3000 3000 Picohydro 20 40 75 100 100 100 100 Fuel Switching 30 60 110 120 130 140 150 Solar PV 1000 1. Number of households and MSEs using RE YR1 20 40 2. New RE capacity installed (kW) 3. Amount of kWh saved through investments in Energy Efficiency Services 4. Increased financial resources that are allocated by FIs, individuals and MSEs to fund the growth of sustainable energy and energy efficiency 800 2945 3220 3470 3690 3940 To be provided before GEFSEC meeting and adjusted during appraisal Zero (million USD) Solar PV 5. CO2 emissions avoided. (ton CO2) 1600 Zero Ton CO2 Picohydro Fuel Switching 1.48 1.91 2.0 2.8 2.8 2.75 2.8 243 963 2367 4221 6075 7704 9108 60 239 653 1366 2204 3042 3880 1020 4080 9520 1700 25500 34680 44540 Intermediate Outcome Indicators Component 1: Risk Sharing Fund 38 Data Collection Instruments Responsibility for Data Collection Bi-annual, project evaluations in years 2 and 5 Dealer and FI reports Country EA Bi-annual, project evaluations in years 2 and 5 Dealer, FI reports and participant monitoring Country EA Bi-annual, project evaluations in years 2 and 5 Reports form MSE Country EA Bi-annual reports and First (in year 2) and Second (in year 5) project evaluation Reports from FI’s Fund manager Country EA Frequency and Reports Bi-annual reports and First (in year 2) and Second (in year 5) project evaluation Year 1-3 participant monitoring surveys Year 4-7 dealer and MSE reports Country EA 6. Number of financial institutions that offer suitable financial products Financial Institutions currently don’t provide any financing for RE investments 7. Number of clients who utilize these financial products and repay in a timely manner 0 Component 2: Technical Assistance 8. Volume of current Zero and historically aggregated energy portfolio of FIs (‘000) 9. Financial performance of participating MSEs 6 998 743 Financial statements of MSE (if expansion) or zero (if start-up) 6 8 10 12 12 12 Annual, 2 and 5th year project evaluation Reports from FIs Country EA 2993 6959 10977 14996 18055 21009 Annual, 2 and 5th year project evaluation Reports from FIs Country EA 1,485 None 2997 3,011 2,349 2,363 To be provided during appraisal 10. Participants use knowledge obtained during training on the None 945 2835 maintenance of their equipment 11. Number of articles and broadcasts on the Average 2 year per benefits or renewable 5 7 country energy and energy efficiency Component 3: Incentive/Output based participant monitoring 12.Surveys received and accepted 2950 945 2835 Annual, 2 and 5th year project evaluation Annual financial statements of MSEs Country EA Participant surveys Country EA Newspapers and broadcasts Country EA Participant Surveys and project evaluation reports in years 2 and 5 Country EA 6593 10391 14198 17114 20000 7 8 10 11 12 Bi-annual Bi annual reports Component 4: Management and Evaluation 39 Country EA Annual, 2 and 5th year project evaluation First 3 year reports from Participant Monitoring, 2 and 5th year project evaluation 6593 Bi-annual portfolio reports by FI 13. Effectiveness of project implementation according to the project plan 14. Agreement on expansion of the RSF None -- 1 -- -- -- 1 Go/no -go decisi on on expan sion -- project evaluations in years 2 and 5 Bi-annual progress report Second year Evaluation Report Exit strateg y decide d upon 15. Agreement on exit strategy 40 Fifth Year Evaluation Report Annual, 2 year and 5 year project evaluation reports WBG, Country EA 2 year Implementing Organizations WB and IFC in consultation with GEF 5 year Implementing Organizations WB and IFC in consultation with GEF Annex 4: Detailed Project Description PACIFIC ISLANDS: Sustainable Energy Finance Project Introduction The USD9.48 million SEFP project aims to promote the use of sustainable energy and application of energy efficiency enhancements in, initially, six island countries in the South Pacific region. In so doing, the lives of many rural households will be improved through the use of Solar PV or pico-hydro generators for lighting and light power uses. The businesses of some MSEs in the region will also gain by the use of clean energy sources, while others involved in the supply chain for related equipment will be assisted to expand. Two of GEF’s implementing agencies, WB and IFC, will be directly involved in this project, while another, UNDP, is already involved in a parallel GEF project in the region, PIGGAREP. The WB will deal with SEFP matters in Fiji, PNG and Solomon Islands, where there are existing WB offices or operations, while IFC, through its Pacific Enterprise Development Facility (PEDF) Sydney office that works in many Pacific islands, will deal with SEFP matters in the Republic of Marshall Islands and Vanuatu. SEFP seeks to exert its impact through using GEF grant resources to facilitate the financing of qualifying investments by individuals and MSEs. This financing will emanate from local PFIs in each of the countries of operation, making use of their entrenched positions in respective local economies and proven ability to advance and administer loans. It is clear that these PFIs do not, at present, offer enough suitable loans to such borrowers for this type of expenditure: the most likely obstacles being lack of normal banking collateral, short term or high interest rate loans with unaffordable loan service payments and PFIs’ general ignorance of sustainable energy activities. Considerable care has gone in to design the SEFP intervention to overcome such obstacles, partly through providing financing support that renders loan transactions attractive to both borrower and lender and partly through providing suitably tailored technical assistance to improve understanding of the benefits of sustainable energy. SEFP will focus its limited resources on development of a commercial market, in the six countries, for three technologies: Solar PV, Pico-hydro and switching diesel generators to work with coconut oil. To assure that the loans provided by the PFIs are utilized for high-quality products, the project will develop, in each country, an Approved Product Catalogue, which will be updated frequently. In addition, the project will provide information to mass media on these products and develop individual training programs to teach end-users about the basic installation and maintenance aspects of these products. The project is designed to be flexible and responsive to market demand; accordingly, no allocations are made of financing support for different supported technologies. However, as a general guide, using current pricing and demand indications, it is projected that the following numbers of sustainable energy equipment types could be financed using SEFP support during a seven year period: 41 Table 1: Technology Count Solar PV (capacity 20-300Wp) 21,000 Pico-hydro (capacity 200-5,000W) 535 Fuel switching (for diesel generating sets of 5-75kW) 740 As there are a number of innovative features in this project, it is important to gain early feedback on progress so that fine-tuning and, if necessary, component re-design can be accomplished to improve project outcomes. To achieve this, an intensive program of incentive-based participant monitoring will be operated during the first three years of the project’s initial seven-year life. Project Execution Arrangements. A regional project of this type needs careful execution to ensure that project proceeds smoothly in each country, yet at the same time adheres to the prudent financial and administrative norms demanded of WB Group and GEF projects. Significant budgetary allocations have been made for the engagement of Executive Agencies (EAs) in all participating countries to fulfill the required project management tasks. A first-class bank with a strong regional presence will be engaged through a competitive process as the Fund Manager to hold GEF funds and to provide financing support commitments to PFIs. It is proposed and will be confirmed during appraisal that the Fund Manager will be paid a fee for its services, while the RSF balance will earn interest at commercial rates. The Fund Manager may have lending operations in the participating countries and will not be excluded from becoming a PFI; however, it will be required to assure WB and IFC that the two functions are kept separate.7 Exit strategy. The SEFP project is designed with a seven-year implementation period, although the possibility of extension for a further seven years is built into the project design; during any extension, the financial support percentage would be reduced below 50 percent by negotiation with PFIs and project management costs would be paid out of the RSF. Financing support and technical assistance will be offered throughout the initial period. As indicated below, the financing support will be backed up by a Risk Sharing Fund (RSF) funded with GEF resources. The RSF will, as project implementation gathers momentum, divide into two elements: one element will cover existing financial support commitments, while the second element will be the uncommitted funds. As supported loans by PFIs are repaid, the RSF committed element will contract, augmenting the uncommitted element. In effect, the RSF will be a revolving fund, able to support a sequential series of loans. At the end of the project’s implementation period, whether seven or fourteen years, consultations on the disposal of remaining project funds will be held between WB, IFC, GEF and the Governments of participating countries. It should be noted that, even when project termination has occurred, the Fund Manager will still need to hold the committed element of SEFP funds to reflect the outstanding value of financing support commitments, although this will gradually contract as loans are paid off. _______________________________________ 7 In a similar GEF project in Sri Lanka, separation arrangements were successfully made. 42 Leveraging the Project If the project succeeds and there is unsatisfied demand for SEFP financing support, the possibility exists of leveraging the project with guarantees from other funding sources, such as IFC, other multi-lateral or bi-lateral development lenders. The project has been designed in anticipation of such leveraging, under which these other financiers would augment the remaining SEFP financing support with parallel guarantees, for which a negotiated guarantee fee would be paid by the RSF. The need for such an amplification of the project’s effect and the enhancement of the leveraging of GEF resources, together with the precise modalities that could be utilized, will be assessed during an evaluation planned for the end of the second year. The discrete components of the SEFP project are described below: Component 1: Risk Sharing Fund (RSF) (GEF USD5.2 million, Financial Institutions USD19.67 million, Enterprises USD0.9 million, NGOs USD1.7 million and Renewable Energy Investments (19.5 million) This component will provide innovative financing support that will facilitate the flow of finance from private sector financial institutions, NGOs, MSEs and utilities for sustainable energy and energy efficiency investments. RSF monies lodged with the Fund Manager will be used for loan term extension or as backing for partial loan guarantees. SEFP financing support will not be allocated between the participating countries, but would operate on a first come first serve basis, to allow the market to develop naturally. If by the end of the second, year demand justifies expansion of the Fund, then this would be done by using a small portion of the Fund to finance guarantee fees for a parallel commercial fund, which could be provided by IFC or other IFIs. The RSF will be administered by the Fund Manager, a first class regional financial institution, chosen through a competitive process, with direct links with banks and other financial institutions in participating countries. Eligible PFIs. Based on an assessment of market position and loan administration capacity in the country concerned, interested prospective PFIs might be approved by the World Bank Group as eligible, prior to project commencement by the WB or IFC, as appropriate. The initial group of eligible PFIs could be expanded of expansion once the project is under way. (See PFI criteria for participation in Appendix C) Eligible Borrowers. The SEFP is targeting household end-users already using kerosene, petrol or diesel for lighting needs and MSE end-users using these fuels to provide energy for their business activities or intending to install energy efficiency measures. The support is aimed at making finance available to these end-users to purchase sustainable energy and energy efficiency equipment. The RSF will also support MSEs involved in the supply chain for these types of equipment. No specific limits are imposed at the beginning of the project. It is expected that Borrowers on average would require RSF support of USD1,500 (individuals) and USD50,000 (MSEs). Eligible Investments Solar PV 43 Solar PV Component Producers Wholesalers of Solar PV equipment Provide 50 percent Guarantee Retailers For Solar PV system end-users, loans will cover the initial cost of the equipment and its installation, as well as the first replacement battery and a single premium for five years of extreme climate loss and damage insurance8. Energy Service Companies End-Users Provide 50 percent Guarantee Provide 50 percent Guarantee Pico Hydro Pico Hydro Component Producers Retailers For pico-hydro system end users, loans will cover the cost of equipment and installation. Energy Service Companies Provide 50 percent Guarantee End Users Provide 50 percent Guarantee Fuel Switching Fuel Switching Component Producers Provide 50 percent Guarantee Retailers For fuel switching end users, loans will cover the cost of modification of the fuel supply system and other components necessary to switch from diesel to coconut oil. Energy Service Companies Provide 50 percent Guarantee 8 End Users Provide 50 percent Guarantee The diagrams indicate which units in the value chain are eligible to receive a loan guaranteed for a maximum of 50% by the project. 44 Energy Efficiency For energy efficiency end users, loans will cover the cost of equipment and installation. SME Supply Chain For MSE supply chain borrowers, the scope of loans will be individually appraised by the PFI to allow start-up or expansion of enterprises. Limits on guarantees. Given that in the Pacific islands, there is still limited experience with the financial products offered, there project didn’t want to start with guarantee limits. However the progress of the Fund will be closely monitored, for the following two aspects: (i) no one country should get more than 50% of the available RSF. It is particularly important that guarantees remain available for the smaller of the six countries and second that a significant portion of guarantees (over 50% of the RSF) remain available for households. If during the course of the project these targets aren’t endangered, the implementing agencies will impose limits on guarantee size for the various categories. Households. Household lighting using Solar PV or, in certain circumstances, pico-hydro generators, will be promoted by SEFP. Using such sustainable sources will obviate the need for such households to continue to use kerosene for oil lamps and diesel or petrol for small generators, thus contributing to the reduction of fossil fuel consumption and emission of greenhouse gases. The relatively high initial investment costs of this type of sustainable energy equipment can be converted into periodic payments through the use of loan finance. A guiding principle of SEFP is that these payments should be held within range of the current average household expenditure on kerosene, diesel fuel and non-rechargeable dry cell batteries for lighting. SEFP will develop appropriate financing support instruments, backed by GEF resources, with local PFIs in each country. The instruments will catalyze the provision of medium term credit by these institutions on terms that will make sustainable energy solutions affordable to households. These financing support instruments have been devised in outline but may need to be modified to reflect specific conditions in the credit markets in each country of operation. The outlines are described below: The partial loan guarantee mechanism envisaged for use in all participating countries will involve a 50 percent partial risk guarantee to the PFI by the RSF. This guarantee will refund to the PFI 50 percent of principal losses on any guaranteed loan following default. In return for this security enhancement, the PFI will offer to provide loans to individuals and MSEs for SEFP qualifying purposes. Indications of unsupported loan terms currently offered by financial institutions in some of the countries, together with terms for SEFP supported loans that have been indicated by (but not yet fully negotiated with) a bank that proposes to become a PFI in most of the participating countries, are shown later in this Annex. 45 Provision of financing support in this way should raise no regulatory concerns, as it simply enhances the security available to an authorized financial institution in respect of a normal lending transaction. The reduction in risk to the PFI would justify the improvement in terms offered to the qualifying borrower, yet the resulting terms would remain within the range customarily offered by the PFI. There should, therefore, be no anxiety about the potential for any major distortion of the financial sector through the SEPF guarantee support mechanism. And in terms of magnitude, loans supported in this way are projected to amount to well under 1 percent of the total loan assets of the banking sectors in the countries concerned. By way of confirmation, the Deputy Governor of the Bank of PNG has stated to the WB that this type of guarantee scheme for commercial bank loans in PNG would not require supervisory approval. In PNG, the prototype GEF project introduced a loan extension mechanism for use by the Teachers’ S&L to enable that institution’s typical three year loan to be extended to an effective five year term, with the loan service payments thus becoming affordable to individual borrowers for solar lighting equipment purchase. The S&L regulatory body was concerned about additional medium-term risks to the lending portfolio of the S&L, as well as liquidity exposure. The mechanism utilized in that project, which should be folded into the SEFP, assuaged those concerns by ensuring that the credit risk and the liquidity burden resulting from the term extension were taken entirely by SEFP’s RSF. The arrangement consisted of a sale by the S&L to the RSF of the outstanding loan balance at the three year point, secured by an advance deposit, and the return to the RSF of funds as repaid by the borrower throughout years four and five of each loan. The S&L remains the lender of record and loan administrator during this latter period and acts under contract as fiduciary agent of the RSF. Although it seems, at this stage, that the loan extension mechanism may not be needed except for PFIs that are PNG Sols, it remains available under the SEFP for application in suitable circumstances. Micro and Small Enterprises. The project provides financial and technical support to three types of MSE. The first type is a user of energy that intends, like the households described above, to replace its current use of fossil fuels with energy from sustainable sources. The second type is a MSE which is part of the supply chain to get renewable energy products from the factory to the end-user. These MSEs include wholesalers, retailers and installers; in some cases these firms will also provide maintenance and repair services. The third type is an energy service MSE that facilitates investments in energy efficiency schemes by providing some combination of consultancy, design, supply, installation and maintenance services. SEFP financing support will expand the availability of loan finance from private financial institutions to these MSEs, mostly using the partial guarantee mechanism. In the case of MSEs, the concept of using avoided fuel costs to assess loan payment affordability may be only partially applicable; however, the sample of MSE Business Plans prepared during SEFP pre-appraisal demonstrates the affordability of loan service payments on loans supported by the RSF. These sample Business Plans have been lodged in the Project File and are catalogued in Annex 12. Summaries of these Business Plans, with the identities of MSE and sponsor deleted for reasons of business confidentiality, are presented in Appendix A to this Annex 4. Depending on the commercial lending criteria applied by the PFI in each case, such MSE loans supported by the RSF will have tenors of up to seven years and interest rates at the lower end of the band normally offered for conventional loans to corporate borrowers. 46 Given the uncertainty of the market, for the first two years no size limits have been imposed. Estimates based on Business plans developed for this project and experiences in other projects suggests that as MSE guarantees will be below USD50,000, which means loan sizes lower than USD100,000. While loans to individuals would be in the range from USD400 – 800 with exceptional requests for USD1500 for larger systems. Indicative Loan Terms for SEFP supported loans. Expressions of interest have been obtained from some financial institutions in becoming PFIs under this Project. Indications of loan terms currently offered by such institutions (see Appendix B to this Annex 4) illustrate why, without SEFP support, few borrowers are able to access or afford financing for sustainable energy or energy efficiency investments. The onerous collateral requirements and/or high existing interest rates for individual and SME borrowers are major deterrents to the types of borrowers of interest to the project. However, there appear to be few critical limitations on the tenor of existing loan products and there are currently no major liquidity constraints for banks in the six project countries. Since banks’ and other institutions’ cost of funds and resultant loan pricing differ in detail within each country and between countries, rates and terms will have to be negotiated with each PFI. One bank, when supported with a 50 percent SEFP guarantee of the type indicated, is in principle (but subject to negotiation) willing to offer loans on the terms shown in Table 2 below to SEFP qualifying borrowers. It is noteworthy that interest rates will be on a fixed basis for households, allowing confident affordability decision making. Table 2: Indicative loan terms Individual borrowers Tenor: 5 years USD800 Interest rate: fixed 10.75 percent pa Fiji 9.2 percent pa PNG Solomon Islands 13.75 percent pa 11.75 percent pa Vanuatu Region wide Indicative size MSE borrowers Tenor: 5-7 years USD100,000 Interest rate: floating 10.75 percent pa 9.2 percent pa 13.75 percent pa 11.75 percent pa Component 2: Technical Assistance (GEF USD2.48 million, other sources USD1.7 million). This Technical Assistance (TA) Program is designed with a strategic focus to ensure that the market for small-scale sustainable energy and energy efficiency technologies develops rapidly and in such a way as to ensure high quality and cost effective electricity services and the long term sustainability of the sector. There are two objectives of this program: (i) to facilitate and enhance the development of the market in the Region for sustainable energy and energy efficiency activities, products and services; and (ii) to strengthen the capacity of PFIs, technical intermediaries and supply chain MSEs to operate in this market and to deliver global environmental benefits. 47 The TA Program will be responsive to country specific needs and priorities but will in general target three areas: 1. 2. 3. Country specific sustainable energy and energy efficiency markets Technical intermediaries (including EAs and MCs) Financial institutions Country Specific Sustainable Energy and Energy Efficiency Markets Market building promotional activities through the private sector9 and creating broad general awareness of sustainable energy and energy efficiency will be undertaken with local media, public information networks, government information channels, and NGOs. This will also include the promotion of local and relevant international exemplars and demonstration systems for sustainable energy and energy efficiency schemes used by households and MSEs. Strengthen the technical skills of target households and MSEs through pre-approval training programs for each of the technology options. The project will require the clients/buyers of products offered under this project to successfully complete a computer based interactivevideo training programs. This will enable these potential sustainable energy and energy efficiency customers to make informed decisions on the most appropriate technologies to purchase and will assist them in the operation and maintenance of their systems. Support retailers to source sustainable energy and energy efficiency equipment components from all global sources, meeting appropriate quality standards. This will include facilitation of trade exchange visits with other countries involved in production or suitable technologies to promote market linkages and lesson sharing. Provide retailers with detailed market surveys regarding demand and ability to pay under this project for SolarPV kits, pico hydro and fuel switching equipment. Technical intermediaries Raise awareness of improved quality management with sustainable energy and energy efficiency equipment suppliers and technical service providers Employing ESMAP funding, support local educators to develop or improve renewable energy and energy efficiency technical training modules in national curriculum for secondary and tertiary technical education programs including rural vocational training centers and distance education Produce a catalogue of approved products for households and MSEs. The catalogue will be updated regularly in accordance with feedback from participants, performance of retailers and changing market demand. Participants will only be eligible for finance under the scheme for equipment identified in the catalogue. Retailers can only list items in the catalogue which meet appropriate international quality standards. Provide training to EAs and MCs to enable them to discharge their SEFP duties. 9 PIGGAREP will work with the public sector to enhance the policy framework in this area 48 Financial institutions The IFC PEDF program will be responsible for this component in all five countries. IFC makes a substantial contribution from its own resources to this program. GEF funds will be used to augment IFC’s program to include the focus on developing and monitoring a sustainable energy portfolio. The TA consists of: Train PFIs in the appraisal of renewable energy and energy efficiency investments. This will include estimation of potential climate (e.g. CO2 emissions) and environmental impacts Assist PFIs to establish effective Management Information Systems (MIS) and debt recovery schemes relevant to SEFP-supported loans Assist PFIs and the Fund Manager to administer the financial support instruments offered under the project Identify, encourage and train financial institutions that, whilst not yet fully capable of becoming PFIs, are interested in gaining the capacity to do so. Negotiate with local insurance companies, with the assistance of PFIs, to secure bulk insurance arrangements to protect SEFP supported Solar PV installations from damage or loss due to extreme climate events, such as cyclones or flooding. Utilities In addition to the above support, GEF support will also be used to finance a number of studies which will facilitate the investment by the Fiji Electricity Authority in Biomass and Hydro generating capacity. FEA has requested both the World Bank and ADB for financing these investments. ADB will finance all the transmission and distribution lines in relation to this project will IBRD will finance the foreign exchange costs of the investments in the generating capacity. These investments will replace the diesel now being used to generate over 40% of electricity in Fiji. While these studies will assist FEA with their general investment strategy, in line with Bank policies, none of these studies are part of the preparatory work for the proposed IBRD loan. Component 3: Incentive/Output based participant monitoring (GEF USD0.4 million, no other sources). For all systems, household borrowers will be requested to fill out a short survey semi-annually during the first three years of the project, regarding their experience both technically, economically and socially of having access to modern energy services. Borrowers will be rewarded for a fully completed survey acceptable to the local Executive Agency by receiving the equivalent of one fortnightly repayment of their loan. The feedback will help fine-tune the project interventions to make the project more effective. Component 4. Management and Evaluation (GEF USD1.36 million, USD 175,000 from Local Governments). The EAs in the participating countries do not all have the specific technical expertise in house to manage this project in their country. For that reason an EA will be able, where required, to procure the services of a Management Contractor to assist with the execution of the project. 49 Two evaluations are scheduled for this project. In addition to the normal evaluation activities, the first evaluation, which would take place at the end of year two would focus on the need to expand the Guarantee Fund and to explore if the incentive payments to retailers can be stopped at this stage of the project. The second evaluation, at the end of year five, would focus on the exit strategy to be followed as described above. 50 Appendix A to Annex 4 Brief Summaries of Six Sample MSE Business Plans These comprise four MSEs in Fiji (one energy efficiency design/supply/install contractor, two sustainable energy retailer/installers and one end-user of Solar PV), one MSE in PNG (an enduser of a pico-hydro generator) and one MSE in the Solomon Islands (an end-user of fuel switching). Company A- Fiji Project Name: Project Description: Market / Marketing: Estimated Project Cost and Financing: Financial Ratios (averages over 2008-2013): Company A ESCO- Fiji The existing company is planning to expand its building services and will set up a subsidiary company separate from its existing electrical and mechanical engineering consulting services. The new company, an ESCO, would provide energy efficiency and energy conservation equipment and maintenance services. Maintenance services and equipment would be provided not only to large companies or government offices, but also to housing developers, hotels and individual homes. Working Capital : F$41,000; Purchase of Fixed Assets (including contingencies): F$119,000 Sponsor Equity and Internally Generated Cash: F$115,000 Long Term Loans (FSF): F$45,000 IRR= 24 percent Debt Service Coverage Ratio DSC= 3.0 Profitability of Sales (F/Sales) percent= 13.6 percent Note: (FSF)= Financial Support Fund under the World Bank/GEF funded project Company B- Fiji Project Name and Purpose: Project Description: Market / Marketing: Estimated Project Cost and Financing: Financial Ratios (averages over 2006-2010): Company B is a private Fijian registered company which specializes in the application of renewable energy technologies. The project involves the company’s expansion into several emerging and existing Renewable Energy (RE) markets in Fiji. These markets are: Outer Island and remote Backpacker Resorts Lower Income Rural Households RE Consulting. In order to achieve this, the company will need to expand its capacity to supply equipment and services. This will require additional fixed assets including permanent working capital and staffing. With the availability of financing, the company expects a steady growth in the ability and willingness of rural communities to purchase RE power systems. Tourism show a steady 7 percent growth in visitor arrivals, at all levels. Also with the large increases in diesel fuel prices over the last year in Fiji sales for the existing market segments for renewable energy for the High Income Rural and retail sales are expected to continue increasing. Working Capital : F$437,000 Purchase of Fixed Assets (including contingencies): F$326,000. Sponsor Equity and Internally Generated Cash: F$513,000; Long Term Loans (FSF): F$250,000. IRR (for enterprise + project)= 61percent IRR (for project alone)= 75 percent Debt Service Coverage Ratio DSC= 4.26 51 Company C- Fiji Project Name: Company C Retail Food Shop Project- Fiji Project Description: The project is to set up a small food retail shop with a solar powered freezer unit. The company will be able to provide village families with foodstuffs which require refrigeration, not presently available in the village. It was thus estimated that a total of 122 units (ranging from baked beans to matches) would be sold daily with daily revenues of about F$162 and yearly revenues of about F$47,000. Working Capital : F$1,000; Purchase of Fixed Assets (including contingencies): F$19,700. Sponsor Equity and Internally Generated Cash: F$8,700; Long Term Loans (FSF): F$12,000. IRR= 28 %, Debt Service Coverage Ratio DSC= 2.4 Profitability of Sales (F/Sales) percent= 3.1 % Market / Marketing: Estimated Project Cost and Financing: Financial Ratios (averages over 2006-2010): Company D-Fiji Project Name: Project Description: Market / Marketing: Estimated Project Cost and Financing: Financial Ratios (averages over 2006-2011): Company D- Renewable Energy Services- Fiji The project involves the company’s expansion of its renewable energy equipment supply and servicing in order to reach an estimated 3,000 homes in the Vanua Levu Island, 300 homes in Taveuni Island and about 170 homes in Noroi Island. The areas targeted presently are outside the electricity grid network and are unlikely to be serviced by community diesel and grid extension programs. Thus, the potential for the company to expand its services is high and competition is limited. Working Capital : F$94,000; Purchase of Fixed Assets (including contingencies): F$262,000. Sponsor Equity and Internally Generated Cash: F$286,000 Long Term Loans (FSF): F$70,000 IRR (for enterprise + project)= 17 percent IRR (for project alone)= 36 percent Debt Service Coverage Ratio DSC= 4.5 52 Company E- PNG Project Name: Project Description: Market / Marketing: Estimated Project Cost and Financing: Financial Ratios (averages over 20062010): Company E Coffee Project- PNG The project covers the development of a new 20 hectare coffee plantation and several key enhancements to the wet mill processing facility which will serve to, (i) improve the energy efficiency of the wet process; (ii) reduce the dependence on diesel fuel for supply of electricity by utilising local hydro resources. The company’s objective is to produce the type of Starbucks quality coffee that will give it the highest price differential. In order to achieve this, a number of measures that will need to be taken in order to qualify for eco-friendly verified producer and thus achieve the highest price differential. The demand for such quality coffee is virtually unlimited and is likely to grow further in the coming years. Working Capital : USD20,000; Additional Investment in New Plantation: USD130,000 Purchase of Fixed Assets (including contingencies): USD69,300. Sponsor Equity and Internally Generated Cash: USD174,300; Long Term Loans (FSF): USD45,000. IRR (Enterprise + Project)= 10 percent IRR (Project alone)= 40 percent Debt Service Coverage Ratio DSC= 5.5 Company F- Solomon Islands Project Name: Project Description: A marketing association in the Solomon Islands, with 250 producer members involved in food crop, fish, cocoa and copra production, has formed a copra processing company The company plans to repair some existing processing facilities to augment members’ capacity to produce copra, as well as to install a diesel generator at the factory and convert it to run on coconut oil. The company will have a firm contract with the largest Solomon Islands copra processor that will ensure the full off take of copra produced by the company Estimated Project Cost Working Capital: USD7,000 Purchase of fixed assets (incl. contingencies): USD56,000 and Financing: Equity: USD8,000 (sponsor) + USD10,000 (ASTAE) Long term loans (RSF): USD45,000 Market / Marketing: Financial Ratios (averages over 20062010): Debt service coverage ratio (DSC): 4.5:1 Profitability of sales: 23% 53 Appendix B to Annex 4 Loan term indications (unsupported by SEFP) Visits to financial institutions in Fiji, PNG and the Solomon Islands have revealed the information in the Table below about the loan products currently offered to individual, MSE and larger corporate borrowers: Table 3: Currently offered Loan terms in selected PICs Personal loan MSE loan Bank A - Fiji Unsecured 18 percent pa interest 22 month term Bank B – Fiji Salary deduction 11 percent pa interest 3 years Bank C - PNG Unsecured 12.25 percent pa interest 3 year term >100 percent collateral 10 percent pa interest 5 year term 150 percent collateral 8 percent pa interest 5 year term - Bank D - PNG 170 percent collateral 13 percent pa interest 10 year term 100 percent collateral + salary deduction 12 percent pa interest 3 year term Unsecured 14 percent pa interest 5 year term S&L E - PNG Bank F – SI Bank G - SI 100 percent collateral 14 percent pa interest 3 year term Large corporate loan >100 percent collateral 8 percent pa interest 10 year term - - >100percent collateral 7.5 percent pa interest 7 year term >100 percent collateral 9.45 percent pa interest 7 year term - 100 percent collateral 11 percent pa interest 5 year term - >100 percent collateral 9 percent pa interest 7 year term - Lease finance 14 percent pa lease rate 3 year term 54 Appendix C to Annex 4 Eligibility Criteria for Participating Finance Institutions Participating Finance Institutions (PFIs) shall satisfy the criteria given in section (A) below, as well as those identified for specific classes of institutions as applicable. A. For all Participating Credit Institutions In order to become eligible to participate in the Sustainable Energy Finance Project (SEFP) partial loan guarantee facility or loan purchase facility (together, loan support facilities) and to maintain their eligibility, credit institutions must be privately owned and controlled, and meet the following criteria: (a) The World Bank Group (WBG) should receive a satisfactory statement approved by the Board of Directors of the institutions outlining: A proposal as to how they would plan to utilize the partial loan guarantee facility, to become internally organized to market the SEFP scheme, to evaluate the subproject proposals and to manage subsequent follow-up monitoring and loan recoveries Name of the senior officer who will be in charge of loans made using the SEFP partial loan guarantee facility operation and key team staff; Lending institutions should submit the institution's business strategy and operating policies, and (b) Except as WBG shall otherwise agree, a profitable operation for at least two full years of operation preceding its application for participation, attested to by unqualified audit reports from independent private auditors acceptable to WBG. (c) A majority of the share capital of the PFI should be held by the private sector (d) The PFI should furnish to WBG, a certificate from the external auditors within 90 days of the date of audited financial statement, that the financial performance of the PFI concerned is in conformity with the applicable financial criteria outlined below. The PFI shall physically forward this certificate to the World Bank’s office in Sydney who will receive it on behalf of WBG. (e) After fulfilling the eligibility criteria, the PFI shall continue to meet the eligibility criteria aforementioned to the satisfaction of WBG, which will monitor the PFIs' compliance therewith semiannually. If the PFI fails at any time to satisfy the above specified criteria the WBG reserve the right to suspend use of the partial loan guarantee facility under the SEFP Project until the PFI has taken specific steps to address its problems in a manner acceptable to WBG. 55 B. For Commercial Banks Commercial banks may extend loans guaranteed by the partial loan guarantee facility to all eligible products in the Approved Product Catalogue as well as to MSEs described in this annex. Commercial banks must be in compliance with local guidelines on prudential regulations, capital adequacy, classification of risk assets, provisioning, single borrower exposure limit, sector exposure limits, and disclosure and reporting requirements. Commercial banks must furnish a confirmation from external auditors acceptable to WBG that, at the date of its application for participation and subsequently at the end of its financial year, the credit institution met the following financial criteria, ratio requirements and exposure limits calculated in accordance with WBG standard guidelines: (a) A minimum total cash collection ratio of principal and interest of 80 percent on term loan portfolio calculated on a rolling twelve-month basis; (b) A minimum total cash collection ratio of principal only of 80 percent on term loan portfolio calculated on a rolling twelve-month basis; (c) A minimum after tax profit equivalent to 9 percent p.a. on average shareholders' funds; (d) A maximum portfolio infection rate of 20 percent; (e) A maximum debt equity ratio of 8:1; (f) Compliance with minimum capital adequacy ratios for tier-1 and tier-2 as required by prevailing Central Bank guidelines in the PIC where the Bank is located. (g) Credit exposure (loans and leases) to one party or any one group of companies must not exceed 30 percent of the PFI's total capital funds (shareholders’ funds); (h) Credit exposure (loans and leases) to any one sector, as defined in the UN Standard Classification of Economic Activities, must not exceed 30 percent of PFI's total credit portfolio. C. For Savings & Loan Associations and Credit Unions (collectively described as non-bank financial institutions or NBFIs) NBFIs may extend loans guaranteed by the partial loan guarantee facility or supported by the loan purchase facility to all eligible products in the approved product catalogue as well as to MSEs described in this annex. NBFIs must be in compliance with local guidelines on prudential regulations, capital adequacy, classification of risk assets, provisioning, single borrower exposure limit, sector exposure limits, and disclosure and reporting requirements. NBFIs must furnish confirmation from external auditors acceptable to WBG that, at the date of its application for participation and subsequently at the end of its financial year, the credit institution met the following financial criteria, ratio requirements and exposure limits calculated in accordance with WBG standard guidelines: 56 (a) A minimum total cash collection ratio of principal and interest of 80 percent on term loan portfolio calculated on a rolling twelve-month basis; (b) A minimum total cash collection ratio of principal only of 80 percent on term loan portfolio calculated on a rolling twelve-month basis; (c) Generating a financial surplus on operations (d) A maximum portfolio infection rate of 20 percent; (e) Compliance with minimum prudential ratios as required by prevailing Central Bank guidelines in the PIC where the NBFI is located. (f) Credit exposure (loans and leases) to one member must not exceed 30 percent of the PFI's total capital funds (shareholders’ funds); 57 Annex 5: Project Cost PACIFIC ISLANDS: Sustainable Energy Finance Project Estimated Project Cost and Financing in (USD millions) Component Financing Renewable 1 Energy Equipment and Services Technical Assistance and 2 Communications TA to Financial Institutions TA to Energy Service Providers and Retailers TA to Develop Product Catalogues TA for interactive video training (ESMAP) TA for Utilities and Government (resource studies) Communications 3 Participant Monitoring 4 Management and evaluation 5 Miscellaneous Total Total Cost Local Banks GEF 40.10 5.20 10.40 1.32 0 .61 0.41 1.53 1.13 0.34 0.34 Local Institutions Micro and Small NGO/Foundations Enterprises 1.70 3.30 46.70 Gov. Depts and Utilities 19.5 0.30 0.3 0.24 0.59 0.61 0.40 1.53 IFC and Trust Funds 0.10 0.24 0.39 0.36 0.40 1.53 0.04 10.00 0.08 0.17 10.89 1.87 3.6 0.10 0.10 0.74 19.6 This amount is the initial amount of the SEFP risk sharing fund, which is lodged to support loans disbursed by local banks and, other than for loan losses, will not be expended. 58 Annex 6: Implementation Arrangements PACIFIC ISLANDS: Sustainable Energy Finance Project Introduction This project is implemented by The World Bank Group. The World Bank is responsible for implementation in Fiji, Solomon Islands (SI) and Papua New Guinea (PNG). The International Finance Corporation (IFC) is responsible for implementation in Vanuatu, and Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI). Depending on the availability of other Trust Funds, GEF allocations, other Pacific Islands States might be able to participate in the project at a later stage. Both the World Bank and IFC will follow their own rules for the purpose of implementing the project. The World Bank will sign Grant agreements with the countries they serve. The Grant agreement will identify the Executive Agent or agencies in each country, and will set out the procurement guidelines, plans and rules for each country, following World Bank Procurement Regulations (AMS 15.0). IFC will run a tender for and appoint a private sector firm to act as Executive Agent, and sign a Memorandum of Understanding with this firm specifying the procurement rules for goods and services as defined by IFC, in the countries in which they implement the project. World Bank IFC Coordination Both the World Bank and the IFC will appoint a Task Team Leader (TTL), who on behalf of its institution is responsible for the implementation of this project. Twice a year the Task Team Leaders will meet formally in a meeting chaired by the Bank’s country Director for the Pacifics. Before the meeting, each will prepare their input in the reports to GEF and Implementation Status Report (ISR) for this project. The meeting will review these inputs and as well as the progress made against the targets set in the PAD and GEF Brief. The outcome of the meeting will result in a joint report to GEF and joint ISR reports for both the Bank and IFC. Executive Agencies and Management Consultants The project will be executed through an Executive Agent (EA) in each of the six countries. In Fiji, and SI, the EA will tender for and appoint a Management Consultant (MC) with responsibility to administer the project. In PNG, the Government has already designated PNGSEL as MC for this project. For RMI and Vanuatu, IFC will run the tender and appoint the MC. For the purpose of managing the Risk Sharing Fund, a first-class regional financial institution has responded to a request for an expression of interest to be the Fund Manager which was posted on the UN Business and dg Market websites. During appraisal draft final agreements (pending GEF and Board approval) will be signed. The responsibilities of the Fund Manager are to enter into guarantee agreements with Participating Financial Institutions (PFI) to support loans made under this project by PFIs to qualifying individuals or companies. The Fund Manager will be required to operate a Trust Account following World Bank procedures for the operation of such accounts to make and receive payments in accordance with the terms of the guarantee agreements. The Fund Manager will also be required to transfer monies to and from sub-accounts of the Trust Account 59 denominated in the local currencies of the participating countries to balance the foreign exchange exposure of SEFP funds. The Fund Manager will be required to monitor the aggregate commitments (by country and type of borrower), including a timing analysis, as well as the cash flows of SEFP funds. The Fund Manager will be required to submit to the World Bank and IFC periodic reports on the performance and status of the funds. The operations of the Fund Manager will be subject to independent audit. The Fund Manager will be required to pay commercial deposit rates on SEFP funds held in the Trust Account. The Fund Manager will be paid a negotiated fee for performing the duties described above. Executive Agencies Next to the Fund Manager, who acts as an EA, the World Bank-supervised countries will have an MC, who reports to the EA in the country. The EAs identified are: (i) Fiji: Ministry of Works and Energy (MWE) and the Fiji Electricity Authority (FEA); and (ii) PNG: PNG Sustainable Energy Ltd. (PNGSEL). This agency is already responsible for implementing the ongoing PNG Teachers’ Solar Lighting Project; and (iii) Solomon Islands: The Central Bank of the Solomon Islands (CBSI). In the other countries, the EAs will be decided on the basis of a tender run by IFC. General Responsibilities of Executive Agencies in this project Each country exhibits some unique characteristics which will require specific modification of the general duties, as follows: In Fiji, there will be two EAs: The MWE will administer the off-grid components, including solar PV, pico-hydro and fuel conversion for, among others, the small engines used in Fiji’s community energy projects. Given the shortage of qualified staff, MWE will execute the project through a Management Contractor (MC). The MC will be an autonomous unit under contract to and supervised by the MWE. The MC’s remuneration will include a component based on performance against project objectives, including the operational status of all schemes financed under the project. The FEA will carry out studies including a Wailoa basin study to explore the feasibility of expansion of the hydro scheme, a resource study for small hydro, a biomass resource study and a study of the extension of FEA’s energy efficiency activities. While these studies will assist FEA with their general investment strategy, in line with Bank policies, none of these studies are part of the preparatory work for the proposed IBRD loan; The responsibilities to be undertaken by MWE as the EA for the MWE component will include: Implementation of the MWE component of the project; Handling all procurement in compliance with World Bank and GoF requirements; Managing all contracts; Submitting periodic reports on the performance and status of the MWE project component 60 Given the shortage of qualified staff, MWE will execute the project through an MC, which will be an autonomous unit under contract to and supervised by the MWE. The MC’s remuneration will include a component based on performance against project objectives, including the operational status of all schemes financed under the project. The responsibilities to be undertaken by FEA as the EA for the FEA component will include: Implementation of the FEA component of the project; Handling all procurement in compliance with World Bank and GoF requirements; Managing all contracts; Submitting periodic reports on the performance and status of the FEA project component; In PNG and Solomon Islands, arrangements similar to those in Fiji would be put in place, with the following changes: In PNG the EA will be PNG Sustainable Energy Limited (PNGSEL). This agency is already responsible for implementing the ongoing PNG Teachers’ Solar Lighting Project, as mentioned earlier. PNGSEL is competent to fulfill the functions of an EA, so there will be no need for the engagement of an MC in PNG. In the Solomon Islands, the Central Bank would have the role of the EA. While this choice is somewhat unusual, there is no other agency with suitable authority or standing. The Governor of CBSI has expressed a definite interest in participating in the project. An MC will be engaged on similar lines to those in Fiji. In Vanuatu, Marshall Islands and Federated States of Micronesia, MCs will be selected following an IFC procurement process for these services. Guidelines and Procedures- Flow of Information, Funds and Guarantees General. A key aspect of SEFP will be to keep administrative procedures as simple as possible to facilitate quick approval of financing for qualified borrowing support to the client. A second key aspect will be to maximize the benefits of SEFP’s financial support by allocating resources to individuals MSEs that will mitigate CO2 emissions by using sustainable energy and implementing energy efficiency improvements. The project will facilitate switching from the expensive, polluting and inefficient use of kerosene and diesel to sustainable energy sources. The sustainable energy options to be supported under this project are Solar PV, pico-hydro, and locally produced bio-fuel (coconut oil) to be used in diesel generators. In exceptional circumstances, based on market demand, other options may be supported. Organizational Structure. The loans for the project originate from PFIs and the required financial support in the form of guarantees or term extension schemes, from GEF resources. The commitments for the financing support scheme will be channeled through eligible PFIs that will offer affordable credit terms to borrowers in return for the reduced credit risk. Affordable in this case is defined as the current cost incurred for the purchase of kerosene and/or diesel and dry cell batteries. This implies that customers will pay less, on a monthly cash flow basis, than they do before the purchase of the sustainable energy equipment. 61 Fund Manager. The funds for the support of the financing will be administered by the Fund Manager which will receive the necessary financing support funds from the GEF. Each PFI will be responsible for the credit review and approval based on its own credit procedures and will request the required support from the Fund Manager in the form of a guarantee. The level of this financial support will be based on specific Guidelines and Procedures set out for the use of these funds. The responsibilities to be undertaken by the Fund Manager would include: Administration of the Risk Sharing Fund (RSF) in accordance with prudent banking practices and legal agreements; Making commitments of financial support from the RSF to participating financial institutions, in line with agreed criteria; Making payments to participating financial institutions in accordance with the terms of the financial support commitments; Receiving payments from participating financial institutions in accordance with the terms of financial support commitments; Monitoring the aggregate commitments (including a timing analysis) by country and category of borrower, ensuring that the allocated amounts to each category are not exceeded; Monitoring the cash flows of the RSF; Submitting periodic reports on the performance and status of the RSF; Consulting with the World Bank Group on any aspects of the Project that appears to require attention. The Risk Sharing Fund(RSF) will initially be held in (USD), but as each commitment is entered into by the Fund Manager, the appropriate amount will be converted into matching local currency and held as such by the Fund Manager. As each commitment is reduced or released completely, the corresponding local currency amounts will be reconverted to USD. The EA/MC will be notified by the PFI via a Short Form Checklist of Eligibility immediately after each commitment is made by the Fund Manager. The PFI will submit to the EA/MC on a quarterly basis a summarized status report of all the transactions carried out under the scheme. Executive Agency and Management Contractor Responsibilities The EA/MC will verify ex-post that all the transactions performed by the PFI under the scheme are in accordance with the required eligibility criteria. In case any transaction does not meet the required eligibility criteria, the EA/MC will inform the World Bank Group which, in turn, will take the necessary action. The EA/MC will not make any further evaluation of the viability of the loan or credit worthiness of the client, as this will be the responsibility of the PFI. In addition, the EA/MC will be responsible for: Handling all procurement in compliance with World Bank/ GEF and relevant Government requirements; Managing all TA contracts, including making payments from a special account; Monitoring and quality control of the Project. This should include approval of equipment retailers, installers and maintenance contractors; Preparing and updating regularly the Approved Product Catalogue of sustainable energy and energy efficiency equipment; 62 Monitoring and facilitating regular audits for the technical and financial activities under EA/MC control; Administration of the participant monitoring scheme, under which clients who borrow for the purchase of solar PV or other sustainable energy equipment will receive the equivalent of one month repayment for two survey reports during each of the first three years of borrowing. The reports will describe in detail the borrower’s experience with the project and, in the case of individual borrowers, the impact of the project on social and economic aspects of their life; Submitting to the World Bank semi-annual reports on the performance of the project; Maintaining a database of eligible borrowers and retailers; and Maintaining a database of the status of the project. The EA/MC will, in certain cases, undertake specific promotional activities and instigate TA aimed at mitigating potential detrimental effects of the program on certain stakeholder groups, principally village level resellers of kerosene and diesel. Assistance will be provided to permit these micro-enterprises to transform their business activities towards the supply of renewable energy goods and services. The diagram below for Fiji summarizes the above mentioned implementation arrangements. Arrangements in other countries will be similar, substituting their particular EAs and MCs as appropriate. World Bank Department of Energy, Supervise MC (Fiji Ministry of Works and Sector monitoring & data collection Energy (Fiji) Public awareness & training Regulation, Standards & policy Management Contractors ( MC) Fund Manager 1. Handling all procurement; 2 .Managing all TA contracts; 3 .Monitoring guarantees; 4. Monitoring and quality control; 5. Submitting periodic reports. Financial Institutions ANZ (Rural Lending) Fiji Retailers of solar, pico-hydro and fuel switching Other banks and credit unions Households Participating Financial Institutions in Fiji 63 Eligible borrowers under the Scheme Eligible borrowers will include: (i) Individuals who require funding to purchase qualifying Solar Home Lighting Kits (SHLK), Pico-Hydro sets or fuel switching equipment from the Approved Product Catalogue; (ii) End-user MSEs which require funding to purchase Approved Product Catalogue items (SHLK, Pico-Hydro sets, fuel switching equipment) and for related working capital and fixed assets; (iii) MSE Sustainable Energy/ Energy Efficiency Equipment Retailers which require funding to increase the supply of Approved Product Catalogue items (SHLK, Pico-Hydro sets, fuel switching equipment) and related working capital and fixed assets; and (iv) MSE Sustainable Energy Service Companies (RESCOs) and Energy Efficiency Service Company (ESCOs), which require funding to increase the supply of sustainable energy and energy efficiency services and for related working capital and fixed assets. Eligible Expenditures under the Risk Sharing Fund (RSF) Individuals (i) Solar PV home lighting kits; (ii) pico-hydro equipment; (iii) diesel to coconut oil switching equipment. Companies • MSE End-users• MSE Sustainable Energy/ Energy Efficiency Equipment Retailers; • MSE Sustainable Energy Service Companies (RESCOs) and Energy Efficiency Servicing Companies (ESCOs)(i) Solar PV lighting kits; (ii) Pico-hydro equipment; (iii) Diesel to coconut oil switching equipment; (iv) Other equipment for the production of sustainable energy or the reduction in use of nonsustainable energy and the purchase of associated fixed assets and provision of working capital as described in a Business Plan. Screening of Applicants Approvals PFIs will receive requests for financing from potential borrowers and will review such requests to ensure that they meet the above eligibility criteria for financing under the scheme. Individual end-users will need to present pro-forma invoices of the equipment they intend to finance. The PFI will carry out a credit worthiness assessment of the end user based on its pre-established procedures. 64 The analysis carried out by the PFIs for MSEs will establish the financial viability of the firm based on an analysis of its business plan and other information and its compliance with the above listed eligibility criteria. In addition, the enterprise will be required to provide a detailed breakdown of the fixed and current assets (including stock) to be financed, in order to assess the potential CO2 emissions abatement content of such assets. The information thus collected, will be summarized in the RSF Application Form (on file), which together with a Checklist of Eligibility Form (on file), will be forwarded to the Fund Manager for an allocation of an RSF guarantee. Copies of these forms, together with the detailed repayment schedule of each loan approved, will be forwarded periodically to the EA/MC for verification of compliance with eligibility criteria. The PFI will periodically review the utilization of the allocated amounts from the RSF. As each commitment is reduced or released completely, the Fund Manager will periodically be informed so that the corresponding amounts released can be reallocated to new RSF commitments. Figure 1, presented below, illustrates the approval and reporting procedures depicted as a flow chart. 65 Figure Flows 1: Flows of Information, of Information, Funds Funds and and Guarantees Guarantees Reports Fund Manger World Bank Financial Support Agreement Document Financial Support Application Form; Checklist of Eligibility. Managing Contractor ( MC) Reports and TA Financial Institution Checklist of Requirements (including catalogue) for FSF support Technical Assistance Business Plan Including Environmental Impact Loans to Individuals Request for Financing MSE Borrowers Individual Borrowers Retailers Request for Pro forma Invoice Other Features Interest Rates. The interest rate to individual end users is determined by country, reflecting the financial sector characteristics in each country. A commitment fee of 1 percent per annum shall be charged to the borrower for the approved but un-disbursed loan amounts. For Households, the interest rate will be fixed for the duration of the loan. For SMEs, the interest rate is variable. Repayment Period. The repayment period for individual end-users shall be such that the monthly amount paid shall not exceed the current cost of kerosene and diesel paid by the end users. In several instances this requires a five-year tenure. For MSEs the repayment period shall be between five and seven years, as determined by the PFI based on the projected cash flow and Debt Service Coverage Ratios indicated in the business plan and reviewed by the PFI. 66 Grace Period. The grace period for principal repayment shall be zero for loans to individuals and up to three months for loans to MSEs, as determined by the PFI based on the projected cash flow indicated in the business plan. The RSF commitments shall not be applied for retroactive financing of prior expenditures.10 A PFI may not finance a borrower’s expenditures prior to the approval of an FSF commitment. Should any PFI do so, it will be carrying the full risk of such advances. 10 67 Annex 7: Financial Management and Disbursement Arrangements PACIFIC ISLANDS: Sustainable Energy Finance Project This annex will be prepared during the course of project preparation. 68 Annex 8: Procurement Arrangements PACIFIC ISLANDS: Sustainable Energy Finance Project The details of this annex will be prepared during the course of project preparation. A. General Procurement for the proposed project would be carried out in accordance with the World Bank’s "Guidelines: Procurement Under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits" dated May 2004; and "Guidelines: Selection and Employment of Consultants by World Bank Borrowers" dated May 2004, and the provisions stipulated in the Legal Agreement. For IFC the following Guidelines apply: The various items under different expenditure categories are described in general below. For each contract to be financed by the Grant, the different procurement methods or consultant selection methods, the need for pre-qualification, estimated costs, prior review requirements, and time frame are agreed between the Recipient/Executive Agency and the Bank and or IFC in the Procurement Plan. The Procurement Plan will be updated at least annually or as required to reflect the actual project implementation needs and improvements in institutional capacity. Procurement of Goods: Goods procured under this project would include models of Solar PVs, Pico hydros and fuel switching equipment, as well as software packages. The procurement will be done using the Bank’s Standard Bidding Document (SBD) for all International Competitive Bidding (ICB) and National SBD agreed with or satisfactory to the Bank. Procurement of non-consulting services: Services such as preparation of videos for local broadcasting, preparation of newspaper articles and other mass media will be procured from local broadcasting corporations. If there is more than one broadcasting company, standard national SBD will be used, otherwise it will be sole sourced. Selection of Consultants : The Management contractors as well as technical consultants required for the verification of the draft product catalogues, training and implementation support will be procured following the relevant respectively Bank and IFC guidelines. Short lists of consultants for services estimated to cost less than $ 50,000 equivalent per contract may be composed entirely of national consultants in accordance with the provisions of paragraph 2.7 of the Consultant Guidelines. Others: The project will facilitate participating executive agencies, and SMEs to attend international training programs and/or attend international fairs. The project will only finance part of the costs and for travel only economy class travel fares will be reimbursed. 69 B. Assessment of the agency’s capacity to implement procurement Procurement activities will be carried out by [name of the Executive Agency]. The agency is staffed by [describe the key staff positions], and the procurement function is staffed by [describe the staff who will handle procurement]. An assessment of the capacity of the Implementing Agency to implement procurement actions for the project has been carried out by [name of the procurement staff] on [date]. The assessment reviewed the organizational structure for implementing the project and the interaction between the project’s staff responsible for procurement Officer and the Ministry’s relevant central unit for administration and finance. The key issues and risks concerning procurement for implementation of the project have been identified and include [describe the risks/issues]. The corrective measures which have been agreed are [Describe the corrective measures]. The overall project risk for procurement is [give the risk rating]. C. Procurement Plan The Recipient/Executive Agency, at appraisal, developed a procurement plan for project implementation which provides the basis for the procurement methods. This plan has been agreed between the Recipient/Executive Agency and the Project Team on [date] and is available at [provide the office name and location]. It will also be available in the project’s database and in the Bank’s external website. The Procurement Plan will be updated in agreement with the Project Team annually or as required to reflect the actual project implementation needs and improvements in institutional capacity. D. Frequency of Procurement Supervision In addition to the prior review supervision to be carried out from Bank offices, the capacity assessment of the Executive Agency has recommended [frequency] supervision missions to visit the field to carry out post review of procurement actions. 70 Annex 9 Economic and Financial Assessment Introduction: This annex presents an economic analysis of photovoltaic-based solar (Solar PV) systems for home and enterprise application in selected Pacific Island Countries (PIC). 11 Even though other renewable energy technologies, pico hydro and coconut fueled generator sets, are supported under the program, the solar systems are expected to be the main technology application for rural consumers who are unlikely to gain access to grid electricity services. Solar PV options are likely to dominate because of the availability of private firms and NGOs capable of delivering products/services extensive rural financial network for credit delivery positive experiences and good implementation models emerging from other countries. In the six participating countries there were over 1.4 million households without access to grid electricity in 2005. This number is unlikely to chance significantly over the coming years. Studies in the several of the PICs and elsewhere find that solar PV can be the least cost solution to providing basic electricity services for lighting, communications and other household, community and SME needs in areas with small dispersed populations and remote from the grid. Methodology: The economic analysis for solar systems is based on an avoided cost methodology. Through this approach the benefits are assessed as the avoided costs of the services in non-electrified households that would be replaced by the PV system. These services include lighting provided largely by kerosene lamps and some by candles and torch cells; and, TV and radio energized by dry cells and rechargeable batteries. An analysis following this approach provides conservative results as it does not account for: (i) consumer surplus12 or (ii) externalities13. Even though there is considerable variation in expenditure among households close to all end users use mainly kerosene for lighting and can be considered as the baseline scenario for the analysis. The cost of the solar PV system is based on information from several solar dealers in the region, for the analysis, the weighted average of the three main countries has been used. The assumed dealer gross margin is 100%, which is based on the Sri Lanka experience where high margins and good access to consumer credit have resulted in attractive business environment, and a successful PV-system program. In contrast, gross margins are very low in China due to lower costs of labor and local materials, and lower expectations of profits by the rural PV companies. Gross margins are also low in Indonesia where there is strong pressure to keep prices low due to lack of financing. Assumptions: The assumptions are derived from actual data on Solar PV Systems in several of the supported countries: 11 The methodology of the analysis is based on the innovative financial and economic work conducted by the World Bank (Anil Cabraal, Peter Meier) for the Solar Home Systems component of the Philippines Rural Energy Project. 12 For example, a PV system provides a greater level of service; a 20Wp system is capable of providing 10 times as many lumen-hours as the kerosene lamp(s). 13 For example indoor pollution caused by exhaust of the kerosene lamp and stove or global climate effects through the emission of greenhouse gasses by a kerosene or wood stoves. 71 A solar home system of 30 Wp is considered for the analysis. The total cost of the system is assumed to be USD473 with a life of 15 years; Battery life is considered to be one year. The cost of a battery is assumed to be US$25 and would be replaced at the owner’s cost; Controller life is considered to be of 7 years. The cost of a controller is assumed to be US$35 and would be replaced at owner’s cost; Bulbs and other accessories usually have a short life (2 months) and would be replaced at owner’s cost; Indoor wiring and switches are considered for a lifetime of 15 years; Kerosene lamp life is considered 2 years. The cost of the lamp is US$20 and would be replaced at owner’s cost; Cost of a liter kerosene is US$0.42/liter and a household is assumed to use 67 liters of kerosene per annum; The scheme would be administered by the executive agencies of the project through providing guarantees to PFIs to extend micro finance to households and enterprises to buy Solar PV Systems; The PFI would extend a loan to the households maximum of 90 percent of the total cost of the system to purchase SHS; GEF guarantees 50 percent of the loan amount made by PFIs; The balance amount comes as the equity financing of the households collected as a cash or sweat equity. Results: The resulting economic rate of return (ERR) based on the avoided cost calculation alone is 8.7%. The incremental cost analysis shows that the incremental cost per Wp is equivalent to US$ 2.1. However, to make the program sustainable without the grant at the end of this project it is decided to reduce the grant amount from the SHS over the years. See Table 1 below Including consumer surplus: Experience in other countries shows high willingness to pay for the improved level of lighting provided by PV. Yet as noted, the analysis of the previous section does not take into account the benefits of the higher levels of services provided, for example in the case of lighting, more lumens delivered, or in the case of radio/cassette, more hours of listening. Furthermore, kerosene lighting also contributes to indoor air pollution damage costs, whose avoidance is a benefit to the PV system. The incremental contribution to indoor pollution levels from kerosene lighting may be difficult to identify given the much higher contribution from wood-based cooking stoves, but it is certainly not zero. Kerosene lighting also causes a significant number of burn injuries, house fires and related deaths. There exist other indirect benefits that can plausibly be claimed as a benefit of PV systems, for which there is significant logical rationale and anecdotal evidence, but which still lack the necessary research studies to permit monetization. These include: (i) income effects: for example, traders in India who used solar lanterns at their roadside stalls found that the quality of lighting and absence of kerosene fumes attracted more customers during the main early evening business hours, with 50% increases in their daily income (Rs 50-100/day); and (ii) educational benefits: 72 Table 1: Economic analysis for solar home systems: avoided costs only Solar Home Systems (30Wp system) Incremental cost and least cost calculations yr5 yr6 yr7 NPV yr1 yr2 yr3 yr4 Supply projection Market projections (# of hhs) 250 750 1,500 2,500 4,000 Cummulative market projections (# of hhs) 250 1,000 2,500 5,000 9,000 Base case - kerosene lighting Capital cost - kerosene lamps (US$) 15,000 45,000 105,000 195,000 345,000 Kerosene fuel cost (US$) 7,128 28,514 71,285 142,569 256,624 O&M cost (wick, gauzes) 4,782 16,128 38,821 74,642 133,156 Total Economic Avoided Costs (US$) 5,610,779 26,911 89,642 215,106 412,211 734,780 GEF alternative - SHSs Capital cost SHS 118,250 354,750 709,500 1,182,500 1,892,000 Battery and controller replacement 7,500 22,500 45,000 75,000 O&M cost - light bulbs 4,500 13,500 27,000 45,000 Total Economic Costs (US$) 6,191,821 118,250 366,750 745,500 1,254,500 2,012,000 Nett Economic Flows (US$) (91,339) (277,108) (530,394) (842,289) (1,277,220) EIRR 9% Assumptions: average specific kerosene consumption: 67.89 liters/households/year; Kerosene price: 0.42US$/liter O&M kerosene lighting: wick, gauzes: 1 replacement per month; Replacement cost of kerosene lamp: US$ 60 for 3 lamps every 2 years Capital solar home system: US$473/system; Replacement cost of battery: US$30/year; Replacement cost of light bulbs: US$18/year Discount rate: 12% Data sources: World Bank team yr8 yr9 yr10 yr11 yr12 yr13 yr14 yr15 5,500 14,500 6,500 21,000 21,000 21,000 21,000 21,000 21,000 21,000 21,000 21,000 525,000 413,450 208,363 1,146,813 735,000 598,790 296,697 1,630,487 525,000 598,790 254,697 1,378,487 735,000 598,790 296,697 1,630,487 525,000 598,790 254,697 1,378,487 735,000 598,790 296,697 1,630,487 525,000 598,790 254,697 1,378,487 735,000 598,790 296,697 1,630,487 525,000 598,790 254,697 1,378,487 735,000 598,790 296,697 1,630,487 2,601,500 120,000 72,000 2,793,500 (1,646,687) 3,074,500 120,000 72,000 3,266,500 (1,636,013) 120,000 72,000 192,000 1,186,487 120,000 72,000 192,000 1,438,487 120,000 72,000 192,000 1,186,487 120,000 72,000 192,000 1,438,487 120,000 72,000 192,000 1,186,487 120,000 72,000 192,000 1,438,487 120,000 72,000 192,000 1,186,487 120,000 72,000 192,000 1,438,487 Input - Solar Household 60 US$ 3 lamps; 2 yr lifetime 0.42 Kerosene price - US$/liter 473 Capital cost solar - system Table 2: Financial Analysis Solar Home Systems (30Wp system) Financial Analysis yr5 yr6 yr7 NPV yr1 yr2 yr3 yr4 Supply projection Market projections (# of hhs) 250 750 1,500 2,500 4,000 Cummulative market projections (# of hhs) 250 1,000 2,500 5,000 9,000 Base case - kerosene lighting Capital cost - kerosene lamps (US$) 19,350 58,050 135,450 251,550 445,050 Kerosene fuel cost (US$) 9,196 36,783 91,957 183,914 331,045 O&M cost (wick, gauzes) 6,169 20,806 50,079 96,289 171,771 Total Economic Avoided Costs (US$) 7,237,904 34,715 115,639 277,486 531,753 947,867 GEF alternative - SHSs Capital cost SHS 137,543 412,628 825,255 1,375,425 2,200,680 Battery and controller replacement 9,675 29,025 58,050 96,750 O&M cost - light bulbs 5,805 17,415 34,830 58,050 Total Economic Costs (US$) 7,299,008 137,543 428,108 871,695 1,468,305 2,355,480 Nett Flows (US$) (102,828) (312,469) (594,209) (936,552) (1,407,613) EIRREconomic (%) 12% FIRR 12% Assumptions: average specific kerosene consumption: 67.89 liters/households/year; Kerosene price: 0.5418US$/liter O&M kerosene lighting: wick, gauzes: 1 replacement per month; Replacement cost of kerosene lamp: US$ 77.4 for 3 lamps every 2 years Capital solar home system: US$550.17/system; Replacement cost of battery: US$38.7/year; Replacement cost of light bulbs: US$23.22/year Discount rate: 12% Importy duty: 18%; Taxes: 11%; and US$2/Wp Data sources: World Bank team yr8 yr9 yr10 yr11 yr12 yr13 yr14 yr15 5,500 14,500 6,500 21,000 21,000 21,000 21,000 21,000 21,000 21,000 21,000 21,000 677,250 533,351 268,788 1,479,388 948,150 772,439 382,740 2,103,329 677,250 772,439 328,560 1,778,249 948,150 772,439 382,740 2,103,329 677,250 772,439 328,560 1,778,249 948,150 772,439 382,740 2,103,329 677,250 772,439 328,560 1,778,249 948,150 772,439 382,740 2,103,329 677,250 772,439 328,560 1,778,249 948,150 772,439 382,740 2,103,329 3,025,935 154,800 92,880 3,273,615 (1,794,227) 3,576,105 154,800 92,880 3,823,785 (1,720,456) 154,800 92,880 247,680 1,530,569 154,800 92,880 247,680 1,855,649 154,800 92,880 247,680 1,530,569 154,800 92,880 247,680 1,855,649 154,800 92,880 247,680 1,530,569 154,800 92,880 247,680 1,855,649 154,800 92,880 247,680 1,530,569 154,800 92,880 247,680 1,855,649 Input - Solar Household 77 US$ 3 lamps; 2 yr lifetime 0.5418 Kerosene price - US$/liter 550.17 Capital cost solar - system 38.7 Battery per year - US$ 73 the Philippines survey data shows that members of electrified households attain about two years more formal education than their non-electrified counterparts, resulting in earnings increases of $37-$45/household. Solar PV home systems may result in a somewhat smaller impact on reading and studying habits than full electrification, but again, the effect is unlikely to be zero. All of these benefits are represented by the increase in consumer surplus. Given the lack of empirical data from cross-country studies, an estimate had been made based on the study for the Philippines. The ERR taking into consideration the consumer surplus benefits is expected to be almost three times higher (26.1%) than the base case founded on the calculations done for the Philippines. Even though the actual ratio will differ for the PICs it does provide comfort that the project is a healthy contribution for the countries participating under the project. Externalities: PV-system generated electricity avoids the air-emissions associated with kerosene lighting. The avoided damage costs represent a benefit, and need to be considered in the economic analysis. Other negative impacts of kerosene whose avoidance is not included in the above analysis include occasional burn injuries, bad odors, and the inconvenience of having to buy and store the fuel. Their monetization, even if possible, would be so small that they would make no material difference to the economic analysis. However, in the case of avoided air emissions, the avoided damages do make a significant difference to the economic analysis, notably in the case of carbon emissions.14 Financial Analyses: Two types of financial analyses were conducted: (i) an overall analysis for the main component of the project i.e. solar PV systems and (ii) a financial analysis of micro and small enterprises participating under the program. Financial analysis for the project, import duty for the three largest participating countries ranged from 5% in Fiji to 20% in PNG and a weighted average of 18% was used. For the value added tax, PNG charges 10% while SI has 15%, and 11% was used in the calculations. A co-financing grant of US$2/Wp was included as benefit. The result is a FIRR of 12%. (See Table 2 above) Financial analysis for the beneficiaries: Investments in MSE projects to be financed under the scheme will be screened by PFIs. It is assumed, as PFIs do not provide loans to loss making enterprises, that these investments will be financially justified. Representative projects were analyzed for the following MSEs: Retailer and technical service providers of Solar PV, energy services enterprise engaged in the installation and maintenance of fuel switching equipment, pico hydro end user, and energy efficiency systems provider. The analyses show that these enterprises are profitable, with IRRs ranging 10 to 24%, with one exception of a high 74%. This assumes that they have access to loan funds with terms and conditions as described in the implementation plan. Summaries of these analyses, which should be considered as illustrative examples, are presented in Annex 4, appendix A. 14 For example in the case of Indian PV solar homes, the ERR was claimed to have increased from 30% to 108% when global environmental benefits were considered. 74 Annex 10: Safeguard Policy Issues PACIFIC ISLANDS: Sustainable Energy Finance Project This project is expected to have minimal adverse environmental impacts. The EAP Safeguards Secretariat has reviewed the Project Concept Note and the Integrated Safeguards Data Sheet (ISDS), and given this project a Category “C” rating. The major issues are: Solar PV battery disposal risk. The project was designed to alleviate the disposal risk of these lead acid batteries, which arises for each user when the battery reaches the end of its useful life every three to five years. The initial loan to Solar PV end-users will incorporate an element dedicated to the purchase of the first replacement battery. Arrangements will be made such that, before the finance for the replacement battery is released by the PFI, the old battery is handed in to the retailer. There are environmental laws in all participating countries which categorize batteries as low hazard waste, but enforcement is patchy or non-existent. Project EAs, using project TA funds, will work with the various national environment authorities to develop Codes of Conduct for battery disposal. In Fiji and PNG, battery disposal is now available on a commercial basis for the recovery of the lead. Solar PV suppliers under SEFP in all target countries will be required to use commercial battery disposal points when available and adhere to officially mandated procedures when in place. Low voltage transmission line for pico-hydros. There is a minimal social risk associated with pico-hydro generators where the end-use for the power is located close, but not adjacent to the site of the generator; in such circumstances, a short low voltage transmission line across the intervening land will be needed. PFIs offering finance supported by the RSF will be required to check that the permission of all users of affected lands has been obtained, in accordance with local practices. Monitoring. During implementation, a post audit review will be conducted by the Bank and IFC of (i) the management of battery disposal and (ii) agreements to pass transmission cables across neighbors’ land. Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Environmental Assessment (OP/BP/GP 4.01) Natural Habitats (OP/BP 4.04) Pest Management (OP 4.09) Cultural Property (OPN 11.03, being revised as OP 4.11) Involuntary Resettlement (OP/BP 4.12) Indigenous Peoples (OD 4.20, being revised as OP 4.10) Forests (OP/BP 4.36) Safety of Dams (OP/BP 4.37) Projects in Disputed Areas (OP/BP/GP 7.60) Projects on International Waterways (OP/BP/GP 7.50) 75 Yes [ x] [] [] [] [] [] [] [] [] [] No [] [ x] [ x] [ x] [ x] [ x] [ x] [ x] [ x] [ x] Annex 11: Project Preparation and Supervision PACIFIC ISLANDS: Sustainable Energy Finance Project PCN review Initial PID to PIC Initial ISDS to PIC Appraisal Negotiations Board/RVP approval Planned date of effectiveness Planned date of mid-term review Planned closing date Planned 9/27/05 4/02/2006 4/02/2006 8/01/2006 11/08/2006 01/09/2007 03/05/2007 02/15/2009 03/04/2014 Actual 9/27/05 Key institutions responsible for preparation of the project: IBRD and IFC Bank staff and consultants who worked on the project included: Name Antonie de Wilde Robert James Simms Elisabeth Jane Mealey David Chandler Cristiano Costa e Silva Nunes James Monday Mara Baranson Perry Bradford Dalcy Lagoni Tozaka George Failace Jon Exel Andrew Mears David Smith Title Coordinator Investment Officer Communications Officer Financial Management Specialist Procurement Specialist Safeguards Specialist Project Coordinator Program Assistant Intern Consultant Consultant Consultant Consultant Unit EASEG CEASF EACNF EACNF EACNF EASEN EASEG EASEG EASEG Bank funds expended to date on project preparation: 1. Bank resources: USD109,081.90 2. Trust funds: USD184,379.07 3. Total: USD393,460.97 Estimated Approval and Supervision costs: 1. Remaining costs to approval: USD565,221 2. Estimated annual supervision cost:USD180,000 (The project covers more than 6 countries, with significant travel costs between each of the countries. This would bring the supervision cost to 12.6% of project cost. 76 Annex 12: Documents in the Project File PACIFIC ISLANDS: Sustainable Energy Finance Project 1. Regional Engagement Framework FY2006-2009 for Pacific Islands, Report No: 33261EAP, May 3, 2005, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, International Development Association. 2. Pacific Islands Greenhouse Gas Abatement through Renewable Energy Project (PIGGAREP), Project Number: 2699 / PIMS Number: 3462, United Nations Development Programme / Global Environment Facility. 3. PNG, Teachers Solar Lighting Project, Project ID P088940, GEF Medium Sized Program, Global Environment Facility / World Bank. 4. Pacific Islands Renewable Energy Project (PIREP) –(9 documents) United Nations Development Programme / Global Environment Facility 1. Project Document 2002 2. Pacific Regional Energy Assessment 2004 3. Report on financial mechanisms for PIREP 4. FS Micronesia report 5. Fiji report 6. Marshall Islands report 7. PNG report 8. Solomon Islands report 9. Vanuatu report 5. Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix (6 IMF Reports): Country Reports, International Monetary Fund FS Micronesia report; Fiji report; Marshall Islands report; PNG report; Solomon Islands report; Vanuatu report. 6. Reports of Public Meetings during identification Fiji report; PNG report; and Solomon Islands report. 7. Reconnaissance and Identification Mission Reports : FS Micronesia report; Fiji 2 aide memoires report; Marshall Islands report; PNG 2 aide memoirs ; Solomon Islands 2 Aide memoires; Vanuatu, Samoa and Tonga Field visit reports. Letters of Support Collaboration from: CDS PNG World Vision Solomon Islands EC- Micro Project Solomon Islands EC- REP-5 PMU University of the South Pacific's Institute of Applied Science 77 Annex 13: Statement of Loans and Credits PACIFIC ISLANDS: Sustainable Energy Finance Project STATEMENT OF IDA Solomon Islands Held and Disbursed Portfolio In Millions of US Dollars Difference between expected and actual disbursements Original Amount in US$ Millions Project ID FY Purpose IBRD IDA SF GEF Cancel. Undisb. Orig. Frm. Rev’d P058358 2000 SB-HEALTH SECTOR DEVELOPMENT PROJECT 0.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.84 0.57 -0.28 0.00 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.84 0.57 -0.28 Total: STATEMENT OF IFC’s Held and Disbursed Portfolio In Millions of US Dollars FY Approval Company Committed Disbursed IFC IFC Loan Equity Quasi Total Portfolio: No approvals pending 78 Partic. Loan Equity Quasi Partic. Fiji NO IBRD or IDA Loans or Credits STATEMENT OF IFC’s Held and Disbursed Portfolio In Millions of US Dollars Committed Disbursed IFC IFC FY Approval Company Loan Equity Quasi Partic. Loan Equity Quasi Partic. 1998 Hillview Ltd 0.00 0.00 5.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.27 0.00 Total Portfolio: Papua New Guinea IDA STATEMENT Original Amount in US$ Millions Difference between expected and actual disbursements Project ID FY Purpose IBRD IDA SF GEF Cancel. Undisb. Orig. Frm. Rev’d P004397 2002 PG-ROAD MAINT. & REHAB 40.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 24.58 19.66 0.00 P066954 2000 PG-GAS DEV TA 7.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34 0.26 0.00 P054238 2000 PNG-GAZELLE RESTORATION II 25.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.35 7.35 0.17 72.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 32.27 27.27 0.17 Total: STATEMENT OF IFC’s Held and Disbursed Portfolio In Millions of US Dollars FY Approval 2005 Total Portfolio: Committed Disbursed IFC IFC Company Loan Equity Quasi Partic. Loan Equity Quasi Partic. PNG MicroFinance 0.00 1.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 79 Annex 14: Country at a Glance PACIFIC ISLANDS: Sustainable Energy Finance Project 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 Annex 15: Incremental Cost Analysis PACIFIC ISLANDS: Sustainable Energy Finance Project Introduction Fiji, Papua New Guinea (PNG), Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI), Solomon Islands (SI), and Vanuatu, along with other countries in the Pacific region, face similar development challenges, despite notable differences in their history, culture, and endowments. The inequitable distribution of wealth and insufficient economic growth in the face of increasing population has contributed to unemployment and hardship in the region. Even those countries that have seen positive growth in per capita income have been unable to fully translate this into adequate job creation and poverty reduction. The World Bank strategy for the Pacific region focuses on creating an environment conducive to generating sustainable economic growth and employment, while recognizing that the small sparsely distributed populations and remoteness of the Pacific Island countries (PICs) pose significant development challenges to this region. In the participating PICs, access to electricity is low in most countries -- ranging from 10 percent in PNG to over 65 percent in Fiji. Power generation is heavily dependent on diesel, on and off the main grid, but particularly in rural areas. The average cost of energy in 2002 was between four to eight percent of GDP per capita. Estimated cost due to the high cost of oil and the transportation of oil itself has skyrocketed to between 12 to 25 percent of GDP per capita in 2005. Increasing access to electricity is necessary to promote economic growth and improve the quality of life in PIC households. In this context, sustainable energy technologies and energy efficiency interventions offer cost effective options for increasing access to modern energy services for rural households and micro and small enterprises (MSEs) as the least cost option. However, as in many other developing countries, potential users face significant difficulties in financing sustainable energy equipment and investing in energy efficiency measures. This difficulty does not reflect a lack of liquidity in the PIC’s financial sectors, as there is adequate liquidity. Rather, the financial institutions are reluctant to finance these systems, for three reasons. First, the financial institutions have no experience in financing such equipment, and view them as risky. Second, these systems generally have high upfront capital costs and low operational costs, which implies that the initial debt requirements are high, leading to a necessary loan term of five to seven years; however, in the PICs there are sometimes legal or internal barriers that restrict the financial institutions from making loans of the required tenor. Third, the interest rates charged by banks on loans to individuals and MSEs can be sufficiently high to render unaffordable the use of such finance to acquire these systems. On the other hand, a number of financial institutions are looking for good projects to finance, including in the rural areas. For example, Australian and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ) Bank has recently initiated its rural banking operations in Fiji and Solomon Islands and in response to a request for Expression of Interest published on the dgMarket website, a reputed Bank has shown interest to participate in the Sustainable Energy Financing Project (SEFP) of its branches and subsidiaries in four of the five countries covered by this project. Similarly, a number of other financial institutions have indicated their strong interest in participating, though 90 some, particularly the smaller local institutions, would require significant technical assistance before they would be able to do so. Fiji Islands Fiji is the second largest of the PICs with a population in excess of 840,000 growing at a rate of 1.4 percent per year. The nation is an island group located in the tropic zone centered at about 18°S 180°E with two main islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu, and approximately 120 sparsely inhabited outer islands. Between 1987 and 2000 Fiji was politically unstable and underwent 3 coups, partly motivated by racial tensions between ethnic and Indo- Fijians. Presently GDP is approximately USD 2700 per capita with economic growth over the last few years moderate and estimated at 3.0 percent in 2005. However, the proportion of households living in poverty is increasing from an estimated 15 percent in 1983 to nearly 30 percent in 2000. Approximately 48 percent of the population lives in rural areas. The economy is heavily dependent on sugar and other agricultural exports, garments and other manufactured goods, gold and other primary products (timber, timber products, fish) and tourism. The sugar industry, for which approximately 25 percent of households are directly dependent for income, has been in decline since 1994. The Fiji Electricity Authority (FEA) is the public utility responsible for general electrification through the national grid. It has an extensive grid on Viti Levu and 3 other smaller grids on Vanua Levu and Ovalau, supplied by 14 power stations with a total installed capacity of 194 MW, of which 80MW is hydro. FEA is presently embarking on an investment program aimed at full renewable supply by 2011. However, only profitable grid extension is undertaken unless funded from external sources. The Fiji Department of Energy (DoE) is therefore the primary agency responsible for rural electrification through its Rural Electrification Unit. The existing policy of the MWE is to support rural electrification through a 90 percent subsidy scheme of households which includes grid extension, as well as off-grid schemes such as micro- hydro or small diesel generator schemes. Lack of technical and management skills and the cost of maintenance and operating costs for the community diesel schemes has meant earlier failure of the majority of schemes. This has led to a low coverage rate and poor quality of access to electricity services and a growing dependency on subsidies. The MWE has also instigated a RESCO scheme which provides Solar PV home lighting systems to more than 500 households on a rental basis. The Public Works Department (PWD) also operates diesel generators at five government stations where the cost of supply is estimated as averaging FJD$2.44/kWh. As a result approximately 35 percent of households do not have access to any form of electricity service. For the households without access to electricity (including those in defunct MWE diesel schemes), there is a reliance on electricity substitutes such as kerosene/benzine, dry-cell batteries, and LPG. These households have an average monthly expenditure on kerosene/benzene for lighting and dry-cell batteries of approximately FJD$19 with 36 percent spending between FJD$22 and FJD$42 monthly and 37 percent between FJD$12 and FJD$22. For the 19,000 households in the MWE community diesel schemes, of which more than 650 schemes have been installed, the communities spend FJD 150-250 per month on diesel alone. These groups exhibit 91 different energy expenditure patterns some of which can be avoided through the adoption of renewable energy household systems. Solar PV or pico-hydro has the potential to avoid the majority of expenditure on kerosene and dry-cell batteries. Switching from diesel to locally produced coconut oil has the potential to reduce diesel fuel costs by between 20 percent and 60 percent. The MWE estimates 12,000 un-electrified households are potential users of solar PV, another 5,000 (especially those in mountainous high rainfall areas where solar is less viable) are viable for pico hydro, and a potential 3000 households in the community diesel schemes are viable for fuel switching. This indicates a potential market of 20,000 households to gain access to electricity services. The barriers to development of these markets include: lack of awareness of renewable energy options, high initial capital cost and lack of affordable finance, limited access to technical services. Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea is the largest of the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) with a population of approximately 5.6 million presently growing at a rate of 3.5 percent dispersed over 600 islands. Nearly half the population is under 17 years of age and the life expectancy is the lowest of the PICs. Approximately 87 percent of the population lives in rural areas. Over the last 10 years economic growth has averaged less than 3 percent annually in real terms resulting in an effective drop in real GDP per capita to USD 582. In 2000, some 2 million people, 37.5 percent of the population lived in households where the real value of consumption per adult equivalent was below the poverty line. Almost 94 percent of these poor households live in rural areas, mostly in the highlands and Mamose regions. There are more than 860 languages in PNG, a third of the world’s languages. The dual economy, a characteristic common in many developing countries, is particularly pronounced in the case of PNG. The formal economy is dominated by mining and petroleum sector, which is also the largest exporter and provides more than a third of government revenue. Formal agricultural activities also contribute substantially to GDP. Only 18 percent of rural households are engaged in the formal sector whereas the majority of the population leads a subsistence lifestyle. The expenditure on energy is closely linked with wealth as poor households expend up to 32 percent more of their income to meet their energy needs than wealthy households. The corporatised national utility, PNG Power, operates three interconnected distribution systems and about 15 mini-grids at the main provincial centers serving a total of 73,000 customers. There is a total installed capacity of 350MW half of which is hydro and half diesel with approximately 40MW of this de-rated due to lack of maintenance. PNG Power is operating well below the government required 10 percent rate of return and as grid extension is unprofitable there is no extension activity unless it is funded from external sources. There are also about 80 small rural electricity schemes which serve key administrative and service centers called C-centers. These C-centers are operated by district or provincial authorities although most are out of service or provide only limited duty periods. Industrial auto-producers (mostly mines), many small standalone generators or hydros, and one IPP increase the total installed capacity to approximately 600MW providing about 2,600GWh per annum. PNG Power provides power to only 5 percent of the households nationally, accounting for 82 percent of customers but 11 percent of sales with 92 the domestic tariff at PGK 0.40 per kWh (USD 0.13). It is likely that more than 90 percent of the population is not electrified by any means: grid, self-generation, nearby industry, small-scale hydro or solar, which makes PNG one of the lowest electricity coverage areas in the world. The energy consumption patterns of rural households reveal a high dependence on traditional fuels, low or no access to electricity and reliance on electricity substitutes especially kerosene and dry-cell batteries for basic lighting. In some cases wealthier households, family groups or small enterprises may purchase a small generator although the high cost of operation and unreliable supply of fuel means it is rarely used. Household expenditure on Kerosene varies considerably depending on income and access to supply. A typical salaried household such as a teacher or health worker may spend 65 Kina per month on Kerosene for lighting, whereas a farmer with some small cash income from beetle nut or fishing may spend only 25 Kina per month. Other income earning household such as those engaged in coffee, cocoa, palm oil or who are recipients of resource rental payments will also have comparable expenditure on kerosene. Households in remote areas leading purely subsistence lifestyles are unlikely to use Kerosene at all. PNG has substantial untapped hydro, solar and biomass resources. Investment by individual households and micro- and small enterprises in Solar PV and pico-hydro has the potential for substantial savings by avoiding expenditure on kerosene and dry cell batteries. There are presently more than 130,000 salaried people working in rural areas, more than 520,000 engaged in reliable cash cropping activities such as coffee, cocoa and oil palm; more than 36,000 microenterprises such as local commodity resellers, artisans and sewing; more than 15,000 smallenterprises such as coffee processing, trade stores and food shops. If 10 percent of this market was developed then this would result in a potential 65,000 households and 5100 MSEs with access to electricity. Solar PV home lighting systems presently retail for PGK 42-52 per Wp; pico-hydro systems for PGK 15-20 per Wp; and using locally produced coconut oil instead of diesel can reduce fuel costs by between 10 percent and 30 percent (e.g. presently in Bougainville refined coconut oil retails for PGK 2 per litre whereas diesel is PGK 2.80 per litre representing a 21 percent reduction in fuel costs). The high initial investment costs, difficulty in accessing technologies and technical services, low awareness of renewable energy options and lack of affordable finance pose the main barriers to improving access to these electricity services. Solomon Islands The Solomon Islands is the third-largest island nation. It has a population of more than 460,000 dispersed over 300 islands, living in approximately 65,000 households. A population growth rate of 2.8 percent, and per capita GDP of USD$600 contribute to making the Solomon Islands one of the poorest and most vulnerable of the PICs. Poverty remains widespread particularly in rural areas where 85-90 percent of the population lives, with most relying on subsistence agriculture and fishing as a primary source of income. The country is slowly recovering from civil unrest that erupted into open conflict in June 2000. Since mid-2003, security has improved significantly with the arrival of the Australian Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands which is expected to remain in place for many years. 93 The formal sector is mainly government, agriculture, forestry and fishing and involves approximately 21,000 employees of which at least 12,000 are in rural areas. The informal sector includes activities such as copra, cocoa, forestry, commodity selling, vegetable growing, home sewing, fishing and similar part-time activities and is by far the dominant income producing activity for rural communities. A high proportion of informal sector workers are women and these activities provide small, but important, income streams necessary to meet family needs including school fees. The Solomon Islands Electricity Authority (SIEA) is the corporatised public utility which is responsible for electric power supply and distribution in the capital Honiara, the 9 provincial centers and the township adjoining the Noro fish processing facility. The present installed capacity is in excess of 22MW of which 0.18MW is from two micro hydro schemes, giving a total consumption in excess of 30GWh. The SIEA management has recently undergone review with the assistance of the World Bank and a management contractor about to be appointed. Domestic tariff is SID 1.3175 per kWh (USD 0.18 per kWh). Other generation is provided by private companies (2 percent) typically plantations and fish processing plants, individually owned systems (1 percent) and other sources such as shared connections, mission or community schemes (1 percent). In Honiara 73 percent of households have electricity whereas in the provinces access is only 9 percent. Overall, at least 90 percent of the population is without access to any electrical supply. In the rural areas more than 95 percent of households are without service which equates to 56,000 rural households. There is good renewable energy resource potential in the form of small-scale hydro, solar, and coconut oil as a substitute for diesel. The high insolation rates mean that Solar PV is a viable option in most parts of the nation. There are also significant hydro resources with at least 326MW small-scale hydro potential identified across seven of the islands. Coconut oil production is well established and local experience has verified its use as a diesel substitute in generators. Coconut oil production levels peaked at more than 10,000 tonnes in 1999 and it is reported at that time that 47 percent of rural households are involved in copra production. Given the relative importance of copra as a cash crop to rural households the use of coconut oil as a fuel has the potential to improve domestic copra markets in such a way as to produce broad rural development benefits. As in most PICs the energy consumption of rural households is dominated by traditional fuels such as firewood and coconut shells. For lighting in un-electrified rural households, kerosene is widely used as is dry cell batteries for torches and radios. Salaried workers, including private sector as well as teachers and health workers typically spend in the order of SID 90-120 per month on kerosene and dry cell batteries. Other informal cash earning households engaged in agricultural activities, such as cocoa, copra, fishing, forestry spend SID 30-50 per month provided they have access to a reliable supplier. More able households, micro- and small enterprises or institutions such as schools and missions may have a generator however access to petrol or diesel is unreliable and expensive so generator use is not as widespread as in many other PICs. Investment in Solar PV, pico- hydro and fuel switching has the potential to avoid much of the expenditure of households and enterprises on kerosene and dry cell batteries for lighting and 94 diesel. The main barriers being the lack of awareness of renewable energy options, high initial capital cost and lack of affordable finance, limited access to technical services. The retail sector for Solar PV and pico-hydro is particularly limited with only 1 specialized retailer of solar PV and no marketing of pico- hydro. Presently, Solar PV is retailing for approximately SID 86 per Wp and imported pico-hydro are SID 45 per Wp. However, there are 12,000 rural households receiving salaries and more than 18,000 engaged in key income producing activities such as agriculture, copra, cocoa and fishing. MSEs represent another potential market of at least 2000 customers. Considering a penetration of 10 percent of these relatively moderate income households then a potential market of 3000 customers is feasible, the majority being Solar PV in conjunction with an estimated 500 pico-hydro and 500 fuel switching installations mostly for MSEs. Whilst it appears possible for these moderate consumption groups to fund these investments from the avoided costs of kerosene and batteries, this is unlikely to be the case for the many low consumption households. Vanuatu Vanuatu is a nation of over 80 islands, of which 65 are inhabited with a population of 205,000 living in approximately 40,000 households. The population is growing at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent, with 42 percent of the population below 15 years of age. The three most populous islands -- Efate, Santo and Tanna -- are home to 50 percent of the population, and 78 percent of the population lives in the rural areas. Presently, GDP per capita is USD699 and while real growth is approximately 3 percent, it is barely keeping pace with population so that the growth per capita is marginal. There are more than 100 spoken languages of which Bislama is spoken by 25 percent of the population. Nearly 80 percent of the population is engaged in subsistence agriculture and contributes only 10 percent to the formal economy, where the formal economy is characterized by a small, high-cost modern sector. Rural incomes are less than 10 percent of urban incomes although this data does perhaps not reflect the large proportion of urban salaries which are remitted to rural areas. The last 10 years has seen a change in the main economic activities away from the primary sector to services. The main income producing activities in rural areas is copra, cocoa, Kava, cattle and forestry, with approximately 10 percent of the formal sector based in rural areas. Vanuatu has largely privatized its electricity supply sector through the use of long-term concessions, with the government retaining a 16 percent share of the company. This private utility, UNELCO, has provided electricity to the capital Port Vila and Luganville for several decades, recently extending to two townships on other islands. The transfer of management to the private sector has raised the quality of service. However, the absence of open competition in tendering for the concession and the lack of legal and regulatory basis for monitoring and constraining the monopoly held by UNELCO has resulted in relatively high power tariffs for consumers, and electricity supply is focused primarily in the urban centers. Domestic electricity costs in Vanuatu are relatively high for the region at around USD0.25 per kWh (compared to USD0.18 per kWh in Solomon Islands). In 2002, UNELCO had a peak demand of 8.2MW and sold 34 GWh in Port Vila, which accounts for 85 percent of demand and 70 percent of customers. Diesel accounted for 93 percent of generation and hydro the rest. The Energy Unit within the Ministry of Lands, Geology, Mines, Energy, Environment and Water Resources formulates energy policy; however, this is about to be reformed. The Energy Unit has also 95 undertaken at least eight rural Solar PV projects with mixed success. There are many small generators in operation in able households and at missions and service centers, although these provide very limited service. Overall, at least 60 percent of urban households -- but only 6.9 percent of rural households -- have access to electricity services of any kind. More than 86 percent of rural households (24,000) use kerosene as their primary source of light, typically costing households on the main islands VUV1,300 to 6000 per month. Additional expenditure on dry-cell batteries and candles can be of the order of VUV 1,500 per month. On outer islands, possibly due to unreliable supply and also low household incomes, this energy expenditure drops to VUV400 to 800 per month. Due to the unreliable supply of fuel, generators operated by MSEs in rural areas are often under utilized. Vanuatu has good renewable energy resources and solid experience with Solar PV, micro-hydro, and coconut oil as a substitute for diesel. Presently hydro provides 7 percent of national supply and there is another 75 kW scheme being prepared. Presently, there is limited local technical capacity and only one retailer of pico-hydro equipment. The Energy Unit has identified suitable sites presenting more than 1.5 MW of micro-hydro potential. Solar PV is a viable option for most areas in the country due to the high insolation rates and, as such, this technology has received wide support from donors and government. There are several retailers offering a range of products and small solar lighting kits are available for VUV3,000 to 4,500 per Wp. Retailers estimate a potential of more than 4,000 systems. Vanuatu also has probably the most experience, of all the PICs, with coconut oil as a diesel substitute. With an annual output of around 40,000 tonnes of copra, there is potential to locally produce about 29.7M liters of coconut oil which, in principle, would completely displace imported diesel. There are two established private firms in Port Vila producing and retailing coconut oil for use in diesel vehicles and generators. Republic of Marshall Islands The Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI) is made of 29 atolls of which 22 are inhabited, covering about 181km2 (less than 10m above the mean sea level). The population of more than 51,000 live in approximately 6,500 households, with 68 percent living in the two main atolls of Majuro and Ebeye. The typical outer atoll will have about 80 to 100 islets and anywhere from three to four modest-sized communities, ranging from 100 to 400 people. RMI remains heavily dependent on external assistance with foreign aid, mostly from the USA, representing 60 percent of GDP. The GDP per capita is approximately USD1,817 and has dropped by up to 35 percent since 1995 due principally to a reduction in aid grants. The workforce represents 51 percent of the population, though less than a third of these are in rural areas; however, 45 percent are in paid employment with the rest engaged in subsistence activities. For rural households, small cash incomes from agricultural products (essentially copra) are supplemented by remittances from family living in urban centers. In 1999, the average income for urban households was USD10,930 whereas rural households received USD3,880 (with a large variance). The ADB estimates that 66 percent of the population in the outer areas (1,400 households) lives below the poverty line. The energy sector is managed at the national level by the state-owned utility, Marshall Energy Company (MEC), which supplies Majuro, Jaluit and Wotje with an installed capacity of 29 MW diesel (de-rated) delivering 81.3 GWh to 3,528 customers in 2003. The second largest power 96 system is KAJUR on Ebeye, with an installed capacity of 2.5 MW, providing 19.2 GWh to 937 customers. The domestic tariff is presently USD0.225 per kWh. The expansion of coverage of these two schemes has remained steady at 5 percent for the last few years. There are additional small diesel schemes run by local authorities in two outer atolls, supplying roughly 100 customers. There is also substantial experience with Solar PV, and in 1999 it was estimated that 5 percent of households were using this supply. Solar PV is also widely used in schools and health centers. MEC has contracted to the government to coordinate these Solar PV activities possibly via a RESCO approach. In 1999, 37 percent of households did not have access to electricity, it is likely that this figure has declined and is estimated at approximately 25 percent of households due to gradually increase to almost complete coverage in the main population centers, but also expansion of Solar PV coverage in rural areas. However, the 25 percent (1,650) of households without access are almost all in the rural areas. The frequent energy forms used for lighting in rural households include electricity from a generator supply (13.4 percent), kerosene wick lamps (70.8 percent), Solar PV system (15 percent) and other (0.7 percent). Wood is the predominant fuel for cooking for rural households (78.5 percent), with kerosene the next most prevalent (40.5 percent), and with charcoal growing in popularity. Typical household expenditure on kerosene for lighting and dry-cell batteries for radios and torches is USD22-40 per month. The availability and utilization of Solar PV has penetrated more widely here than in PNG or the Solomon Islands. The opportunities for economic activity from improved access to electricity include fish and food storage, small fresh product retailing, battery recharging, eco-tourism, improved communications and community activities. RMI is a low-lying atoll country and, as such, there is no potential for hydro. However, there is excellent insolation and so Solar PV is widely used and desired. Solar PV has been supported by donor programs and schemes involving RESCO type approaches have been undertaken by the Government Energy Office. These projects installed 75 to 100 Wp systems for a monthly rental charge of up to US10 and have had mixed success for a range of technical and management reasons. These schemes are about to be contracted to MEC which, it is anticipated, will address many of these problems. There is one solar retailer in RMI and installed systems cost approximately USD18-20 per Wp. MEC imports equipment from the United States and installed cost is USD22.5 per Wp. There is also local experience using coconut oil as a diesel substitute and coconut oil is available for USD1.50 per gallon (compared to diesel at USD1.90 per gallon). In 2004, RMI produced 4,500 tons of copra, which is sold via the Pacific International Inc (PII) company, who also produced coconut oil for export and for use in vehicles and small generators. PII estimates that copra production could be expanded to 18,500 tonnes. Local retailers estimate a potential market of at least 2,000 Solar PV systems; with fuel switching of small diesel generators accounting for a possible 50 installations. No potential for pico-hydros is evident. Broad development goals The project supports the higher-level sector and country development objectives of the Pacific Island countries, as expressed in the Bank’s Pacific Regional Strategy for FY2006-2009, by contributing to: (i) reducing poverty and increasing the quality of life for those persons living in rural households and (ii) generating sustainable economic growth and employment opportunities. It does so through facilitating increased access to electricity, reducing reliance on diesel power 97 generation, enabling income-earning activities, and contributing to the development of micro and small enterprises. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed and ratified by all participating countries (Fiji, Feb 25, 1993; PNG, March 16, 1993; Republic of Marshall Islands, April 15, 1994; Solomon Islands, December 28, 1994; Vanuatu, March 25 1993). During the preparation of this project, all the Convention Focal Points confirmed their country’s strong commitment to the promotion of environmentally-sustainable energy systems. Barriers to accelerated sustainable energy market growth Even though differences exist for the participating countries, several common barriers can be identified15: Lack of Access to Finance: One of the key financing issues for private entrepreneurs and end users is to overcome the high upfront costs of stand-alone renewable energy systems, and gain access to financing for initial investment and growth. For example, for an energy service company (ESCO) longer term loans are required to better match the cash flow of the operation; for a dealer working capital is needed when the business is rapidly expanding; while for end users financing is needed to reduce the high initial cost of a system. So far, local financing institutions have not entered the market for renewable energy and there is generally a lack of understanding with respect to the long term financing needs for renewable energy projects. Lack of delivery infrastructure: Most of the population is widely dispersed with poor access to infrastructure. On an individual country basis and in smaller PICs in particular, that makes delivery of services difficult, maintenance of installed facilities costly, and investments on RET applications high. The disperse nature of the business provides a profound challenge to build this infrastructure when sales are low and the expenses for transportation, communication, training and after sales service are high. A successful growth of this infrastructure balances the use of existing rural networks with the introduction of easily replicable business models. Solar dealers should generate revenues sufficient to recover capital investment, service debt, pay for administrative and support services, cover payment defaults and, in the case of for-profit operations, provide satisfactory returns for investors. In the past, the fees charged under many donor- and government-sponsored programs were set at levels comparable to the monthly cost of kerosene for low-income households. This was based on the assumption that rural consumers have a very limited capacity to pay. Such stand alone programs are intrinsically unsustainable over the long term. Experience shows that consumers are often willing and able to pay more for highly valued services than has previously been assumed. Lack of Awareness: Governments and end users are often unaware of the promising renewable energy resources and technologies. Information about the benefits of renewable energy has not been well disseminated in most PICs. Public leaders, private citizens and private sector entrepreneurs have too limited an understanding of renewable energy to be able to make 15 See also Pacific Islands Greenhouse Gas Abatement through Renewable Energy Project (PIGGAREP) implemented by UNDP 98 informed decisions about policies, purchases or investments. There is inefficient distribution of information about experiences with renewable energy technology applications. Furthermore, there is a general lack of understanding of the rural energy markets. An evidence of this is the assumption that end users should receive the same capacity. Lack of conducive policy and regulations: Very few PICs have environment and energy legislations and none has GHG and/or RE targets in place. A lot of the PICs are in the process of developing their climate change and energy policies. As a result, implementation of renewable energy projects is usually ad hoc without a more systematic and predictable longer term approach. This has resulted in many projects being implemented that repeat the same errors of design as earlier projects by other agencies in the same country. Grid extension and off-grid options should complement each other rather than compete. In locations where stand alone systems are the most economically viable option, governments should explicitly consider and encourage diffusion of stand alone systems in lieu of grid extension. This should be articulated in rural electrification policies not only to raise awareness and acceptance among policy makers, financiers and potential beneficiaries but to counter grid extension plans rendered unreliable by politicians overriding them through ad hoc decisions. With the dispersed market and the often multitude of service providers, the role of government is to encourage business expansion and competition through the establishment of a conducive institutional and regulatory environment. This includes rationalization of duty and tax structures if these discriminate against stand alone system development. Relatively high import duties and other taxes can severely limit the potential for commercially viable, market-driven stand alone systems program. Lack of ownership and quality of products: Often businesses of stand alone systems do not have industry-wide technical standards to ensure quality, safety and longevity and thus reduce commercial risks. It is recommended that a stand alone systems program introduces technical specifications for these systems. The World Bank has supported several countries in developing these technical specifications and a guideline has become available. There is a lack of support after the installation has taken place. Furthermore, one of the major barriers for private penetration is the supply of donor projects that provided renewable energy systems for free or against very small nominal charges. This has created expectations amongst populations to be served free of charge, an attitude that makes it difficult for private sector suppliers to enter the market. Poor technical designs of some RE projects have resulted in poor quality of service and the confidence level of stakeholders for new RE projects is therefore low. Communities have been known to reject solar PV electrification even when provided as an outright gift because they anticipated poor service and accepting PV meant rejecting the possibility of receiving another electrification technology in the future. Several more specific barriers are summarized in table 1. Table 1: Barriers to market development for renewable energy and energy efficiency Type Technical Renewable Energy Few demonstrations of renewable energy schemes. Absence of human technical skills and equipment technical specifications. Lack of knowledge about RE resource potentials. 99 Energy Efficiency Lack of knowledge on practical energy savings measures and cost-benefit Market Institutional Lack of retail outlets for RE products. Few capable, accessible and sustainable private sector service delivery suppliers. Perceived high costs of delivering services. Inadequate public awareness campaigns. Negative past experience creating low consumer confidence in solar PV. Previous donor funded government programs failed to develop local ownership. Inadequate capacity to address the challenges of climate change, including the design and implementation of climate-friendly projects. Ineffective coordination among stakeholders. Financial Lack of affordable commercial finance. Low investor confidence due to lack of awareness and information on products and performance. Legislative, regulatory and policy Legislation and policies are either not in place or ineffective. Lack of private sector experience in provision of equipment and services. Inadequate public awareness campaigns. Policies and programs that only provide information may have some positive effect but do not address or overcome behavioral barriers and inertia. Governments tend to begin programs but are seldom consistent in long-term policies and resource inputs. Projected savings aren’t believed to justify the investment in time and effort. Finance institutions are not familiar with these investments and consider them as risky. Legislation and policies are either not in place or ineffective. Source: Collated from PIGGAREP Project Brief, PIREP Regional Report 2005, and Bank missions Barrier removal strategy The thrust of the barrier removal strategy is for the private sector to lead renewable energy transactions based on end users demand and for the government to assist in creating an enabling business environment, which among others would foster the establishment of commercially viable retail outlets for RE products. The finance sector with interactions at all stages of the value chain will play a pivotal role for the implementation of the proposed sustainable energy program. The sustainable energy program can be divided in three more or less distinct phases. The first phase is to complete the preparation of the sustainable energy agenda with some initial trials up till August 2006. During the second phase the industry will grow out of its infant stage through capacity building, business development and increasingly accelerating investments. In the third phase proven success models are scaled up. This GEF project supports the second phase of this program. Phase 1- Preparing the agenda for action: To finalize the agenda for action, the following activities are completed or have been started: (i) several studies on the potential for isolated and grid-connected small hydro power systems; (ii) study on design and plan to meet high-priority electricity needs through private delivered stand alone renewable energy systems; (iii) financial sector and institutional support. 100 Phase 2 – Capacity building, business development and initial investment: During the second phase, the activities will be supported through a framework of incentives, rather than individual assignments. The Government would play a market enabling role, distancing itself from implementation of activities and creating an environment in which private sector activities can develop. The Government will play key-facilitating roles during this stage. The proposed GEF assisted SEFP project supports this phase of the program. Phase 3 – Up scaling of proven business models: Phase three falls outside the first SEFP time period. Activities at this phase will focus on accelerating the success models that have evolved during the second phase of the program. Baseline Scenario The baseline scenarios will be slightly different for each country although they will have many common features. The key differences can be roughly grouped as follows: for PNG, Solomon Islands and Vanuatu the business-as-usual scenario implies an unreliable and contracting generation situation in particular when it comes to the isolated areas, although some additional generation associated with industrial auto producers is possible; in RMI the scenario is one of maintaining the present situation in the face of declining overseas aid, although some small Solar PV projects are commencing these are unlikely to impact significantly on electrification ratios; for Fiji the national utility, Fiji Electricity Authority is undertaking substantial investment in grid based renewable generation and grid supply is likely to be substantially improved although offgrid services, which are the mandate of the Department of Energy are, due to budget constraints unlikely to improve. In all cases for all countries, the majority of load centers in rural areas will continue to rely on expensive diesel based systems that are mainly run by government or local utilities at a loss, undermining the operational quality of the plants. Investments for additional off-grid generation facilities are not forthcoming as no long-term alternative financing is likely to emerge and the market is unable to grow despite the potential that is evident. In other areas, where large scale generation is developed the weak transmission network and high cost of grid extension restrict the actual use of this power. For the more remote customers no alternatives are offered other than a few pilot programs supported by international donors. Policy and regulatory reforms, supported by bilateral, multilateral and intergovernmental agencies improve the operations of some utilities even though there continues to be limited encouragement for private sector investment in renewable energy or energy efficiency especially with regard to demand side management. The renewable energy sector and micro- and small enterprises will continue to rely on ad-hoc initiatives which have limited impact on: a sustained growth of these industries; their efficiency improvement; and cost reduction of their products. Rural households will continue to expend disparate proportions of their meager cash incomes on fossil fuels in exchange for low quality services. Global environmental objective and key indicators The project’s global environmental objective is to abate greenhouse gas emissions through use of sustainable energy in rural areas for provision of electricity. The key global performance 101 indicators are: (a) number of additional households and MSEs served by modern sustainable electricity services; (b) installed new renewable generation capacity by unit and kW; (c) number of kWh saved due to energy efficiency interventions and (d) avoided carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions. Total estimated emission reductions from facilities installed during the projects life are estimated at 0.2 million metric tons of CO2, over the lifetime of the systems. The long term national impact of this Project is expected to be much larger than this number, as broad replication is expected to occur through the establishment of a legal and regulatory framework for grid connected renewable energy systems. The specific GEF objective is to assist with the growth of a market for sustainable energy systems and a local sustainable energy industry. Proposed GEF co-financed interventions fall under Climate Change Focal Area, Operational Program 5 and 6. See Section III – “Prior experience, current status, and other initiative” – above as well as Section V – “Potentials for, and Barriers to, Renewable Energy/Energy Efficiency”. The activities proposed here conform to the relevant guidelines and are similar to those incorporated in various other GEF projects under OP 5 (e.g., electricity end use efficiency) and OP 6 (e.g., solar PV for rural public institutions, micro hydro,). Project development objectives The project aims to significantly increase the adoption and use of renewable energy technologies in participating Pacific Island states through a package of incentives to encourage local financial institutions to participate in sustainable energy finance in support of equipment purchase. The global environment objective is to contribute to mitigating climate change through the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in line with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The GEF Alternative The SEFP project consists of four components that together will promote the financing of sustainable energy and energy efficiency investments, as well as the early monitoring of the effectiveness of these investments. The sustainable energy options to be supported under this project are Solar PV, pico hydro, and investments to switch fuel for stationary generating engines from diesel to coconut oil. The financing will all originate from local financial institutions that are willing, with support from SEFP, to lend to individuals and MSEs for qualifying investments. The capacity of these banks and non-bank financial institutions to lend to these types of borrower for such purposes to will be enhanced by technical assistance offered under SEFP. Further technical assistance will be given to retailers and installers of qualifying equipment, to ensure that they are properly trained in the technologies concerned. SEFP financing support has been designed to reduce to a minimum any distorting effect on financial or commercial markets in the countries of operation. The proposed mechanism of risk sharing instruments backed with GEF funds is calculated to give the required stimulus to financial institutions, without causing them to deviate from their normal spectrum of loan terms. The four components of SEFP are presented below: 102 Components 1. Risk Sharing Fund and Investments 2.TA, Market Incentives and Communications a. TA to Financial institutions b. TA, market surveys for MSEs c. Development of Product Catalogue d. Participant Training e .TA for Utilities and studies f. Communications 3. Participant monitoring 4. Management & Evaluation Miscellaneous Govts & Utilities NGOs /EC and IFC parallel financing 19.50 0.10 Local Banks 1.70 19.67 0.27 0.10 0.41 0.24 0.10 0.17 0.08 2.58 20.16 Enterprises Total 0.90 5.20 46.97 0.30 0.62 0.77 0.34 1.30 1.17 0.34 0.24 0.59 0.61 0.40 1.54 0.04 53.20 0.18 19.78 GEF 1.20 0.39 0.36 0.40 1.36 0.04 9.48 Total Component 1: Risk Sharing Fund (RSF) (GEF USD5.2 million, Financial Institutions USD19.67 million, Enterprises USD0.9 million, NGOs USD1.7 million and Renewable Energy Investments (19.5 million) The RSF will be used to provide innovative financing support to facilitate the flow of finance from local private sector financial institutions for sustainable energy and energy efficiency investments. SEFP financing support will not be allocated between the participating countries, although each country will receive an initial allocation for technical assistance to allow operations to commence. The RSF will be administered by a Fund Manager, a first class regional financial institution, chosen through a competitive process, with direct links with banks and other financial institutions in the participating countries. The RSF is targeting two groups of end-users: (i) households already using kerosene for lighting needs and (ii) MSEs using kerosene, diesel or other fossil fuels to provide energy for use in their business activities. The support would enable these end-users to finance purchases of sustainable energy and energy efficiency equipment. Since the supply chain for such equipment is not well developed in the region, the RSF will also provide financing support to MSEs to allow start-up or expansion of their supply, design, maintenance and installation businesses in this sector. Households. Household lighting using Solar PV or, in certain circumstances, pico-hydro generators, will be promoted by SEFP. Using such sustainable sources will obviate the need for such households to continue to use kerosene for oil lamps and diesel or petrol for small generators, thus contributing to the reduction of fossil fuel consumption and emission of greenhouse gases. The relatively high initial investment cost of this type of sustainable energy equipment can be converted into periodic payments through the use of conventional loan finance. A guiding principle of SEFP is that these payments should be held within the range of the current average household expenditure on kerosene, diesel fuel or non-rechargeable dry cell batteries for lighting. The RSF provided by GEF will support risk sharing commitments, with the local participating financial institutions (PFIs) providing this loan finance, that will: 103 Facilitate loans with a tenor of up to five years, rather than the shorter loans offered now in some participating countries. The longer tenor will allow payments to be reduced to an affordable level, in accordance with the principle indicated above. Share a significant part of the repayment risk with local financial institutions through a partial guarantee mechanism. This mechanism will allow the supported finance to be on terms, including interest rate, tenor and security, that will make the finance available and the payments affordable. Micro and Small Enterprises. The project provides financial and technical support to three types of MSEs. The first type is a user of energy that intends, like the households described above, to replace its current use of fossil fuels with energy from sustainable sources. The second type is an MSE which is part of the supply chain to get sustainable energy products from the factory to the end-user. These MSEs include wholesalers, retailers and installers; in some cases these firms may also provide design, maintenance and repair services. The third type is an energy service MSE that facilitates investments in energy efficiency schemes by providing some combination of consultancy, design, supply, installation and maintenance services. SEFP financing support will expand the availability of loan finance from private financial institutions to these MSEs, mostly using the partial guarantee mechanism. In the case of some MSEs, the principle of using avoided fuel costs to assess loan payment affordability is inapplicable; however, the sample of MSE Business Plans (see Appendix of Annex 4) prepared during SEFP pre-appraisal demonstrates the affordability of loan service payments on loans supported by the RSF. Depending on the commercial lending criteria applied by the lending institution in each case, such MSE loans supported by the RSF will have tenors of up to seven years and interest rates at the lower end of the band conventionally offered to corporate borrowers. Approved Product Catalogue. For each participating country, through the technical assistance component, a catalogue of products which qualify for financing under this project will be developed and frequently updated to allow for price fluctuations, etc. Based on successful experience in other projects, SEFP will focus on the introduction of high quality products. The product catalogue will only contain products and systems which have been tested and certified by local standards institutes and which comply with relevant international standards. Supported Technologies. Project size and other practical considerations mean that SEFP can only deal with a few sustainable energy and energy efficiency technologies. Based on demand surveys conducted during project identification, SEFP will be restricted to supporting the following four technologies: Solar PV, pico hydro, switching to coconut oil and improving energy efficiency. For Solar PV systems, the loan finance supported by the RSF will be sufficient to cover the initial cost of the equipment and its installation, as well as the cost of the first replacement battery, expected to be required after three to five years and a single premium to pay for five years of extreme climate loss and damage insurance. For pico-hydro systems, it is proposed to finance the equipment and installation costs. For investments in fuel switching, it is proposed that the financing will cover the costs of modification of the fuel supply system and other components necessary to switch from diesel to coconut oil. Investments in Energy Efficiency technologies are not limited by any specific technology. It is anticipated that technologies will focus on more efficient lighting and air conditioning systems. 104 The Fiji Electricity Authority (FEA) is the public utility responsible for general electrification through the national grid in Fiji. It has an extensive grid on Viti Levu and three other smaller grids on Vanua Levu and Ovalau, supplied by 14 power stations with a total installed capacity of 194 MW, of which 80 MW is hydro. FEA, to meet existing and new demand with sustainable energy solutions, based on least cost analysis, will with input from this project make investments in renewable energy capacity with financing from IBRD (Board date January 2007). This new capacity will replace all their diesel generation with renewable energy. While these studies will assist FEA with their general investment strategy, in line with Bank policies none of these studies is part of the preparatory work for the proposed IBRD loan. Component 2: Technical assistance, market incentives and communications (GEF USD2.48 million, other sources USD1.7 million) Technical assistance (TA) will be provided through SEFP, as follows to: Strengthen the capacity of local financial institutions to service clients borrowing to purchase Solar PVs, pico-hydros or fuel switching equipment. TA and training will be made available to PFIs to establish and maintain a profitable sustainable energy portfolio, including support with appropriate management information systems, risk mitigation and recovery techniques. Provide relevant training to the Fund Manager, a first class bank with regional representation that will administer the RSF. Strengthen sales and after sales incentive structure for service providers through detailed market surveys, thereby reducing the risk for retailers to stock too much or to little solarPV and additional equipment. Strengthen the financial and technical capacity of MSE sustainable energy service providers to make them more bankable from the perspective of private sector lenders. This would, inter alia, include support for renewable energy equipment suppliers to understand about PVGAP certification and quality management standards (including ISO 9000 and local variants). Strengthen customer understanding of the operational aspects of the sustainable energy equipment to be purchased. The project will require the buyers of products supported by SEFP to pass a computer-based interactive video training program. This program will be focused on non-functionally literate clients, to assure that all possible clients will get a basic understanding of the workings of the equipment. Completion of this training will be a condition to be eligible for a loan supported by the RSF. Provide assistance in sustainable energy repair and maintenance training to vocational schools in areas where no such training is currently available Facilitate other local training institutions including internet based learning centers to develop and administer training in the repair and maintenance of sustainable energy equipment. Provide technical support to produce and frequently update an Approved Product Catalogue – covering products which meet certified quality standards – supplied by local retailers. Financial support from the RSF will only be available for products meeting these quality standards. To keep costs down, the project will encourage retailers to obtain quotes for Solar PV and pico-hydro components from all global sources meeting PVGAP or equivalent quality standards. Assistance for local retailers and MSEs to attend international trade fairs and training programs. 105 Provide technical assistance and support hydro basin and biomass resource studies in Fiji for investments in large scale renewable energy generation capacity to be finance under an IBRD loan. (Board date for this loan is January 2007). While these studies will assist FEA with their general investment strategy, in line with Bank policies none of these studies is part of the preparatory work for the proposed IBRD loan. A communications plan (in coordination with the PIGGAREP project) that addresses all the relevant stakeholders. Component 3: Participant monitoring (GEF USD0.4 million, no other sources). For the first three years of the project, household borrowers will be requested to fill out semiannually a short survey, reporting their technical, economic and social experiences resulting from access to modern energy services. Borrowers participating will be rewarded for an acceptable survey by receiving the equivalent of a fortnightly loan service payment on their loan. The feedback from the surveys will help to fine tune the project interventions for improved effectiveness and to monitor the environmental, economic and social impact of the project on the beneficiaries. Component 4: Management and Evaluation (GEF USD1.36 million, USD175,000 from Local Governments) The Executive Agencies (EAs) in the participating countries do not all have the specific technical expertise in house to manage this project in their country. For that reason, EAs will procure the services of Management Contractors (MCs) to assist them with the execution of the program. Evaluations will be carried out by the end of year 2 and year 5. Table 2 Physical targets A1Solar PV 30 Wp systems A2 Pico hydro (1kW/unit) A3 Fuel Switching (7.5kW/engine) Total Target Systems 21,000 535 740 Target Households 21,000 535 740 Target MWs 0.63 0.54 5.5 22,265 22,565 6.67 Incremental costs summary The total incremental cost calculated for the SEFP is US$9.48 million derived as the difference between the baseline scenario (US$24.15 million) and the Alternative (US$33.63 million). An Incremental costs analysis was conducted for the main sub-components. The result of the analysis was that the solar enterprise and home systems have an incremental cost of US$1.3 million for 630kW or US$2.1/Wp. The economic rate of return of the project based on avoided cost only is 8.7%. For further detail on the incremental cost see the incremental cost matrix provided below. Incremental cost matrix 106 Based on the description of the context, development goals, barriers, objectives, baseline, GEF alternative, and sustainability provided above, a summary of the incremental cost can be found in the following table. Table 3 Incremental cost matrix Domestic Benefits Baseline 1. Access to electricity services will continue to be low and the demand suppressed; Alternative 1. Stimulation of rural and energy businesses to expand operations while including sustainable energy solutions Increment 1. Main barriers (information, first cost, etc.) to commercial development removed. 2. Process of economic development in rural areas will continue to hamper due to lack of electricity 2. Successful 2. Large scale intervention demonstration of a wide to support isolated systems range of alternative through the private sector. technologies and business approaches. 3. Power availability remains constrained, with prices high and reliability low. 3. Institutional strengthening in development of regulation, pricing, contracts and financing. 4. Very limited development of the commercial market of sustainable energy technologies. 4. Sustainable energy as integral part of rural electrification and power supply development strategies 3. Sustainable energy businesses provide improved technologies to complement generation capacity and grid extension for rural households/institutions on a competitive basis under an established regulatory framework. 4. Experienced sustainable energy businesses ready for up scaling of rural investments and grid supply 5. Significant offset of 5a. About 0.1 million tons Global Environmental 5. Power supply development and rural GHG emissions through of directly avoided CO2 Benefits energy services largely range of sustainable energy emissions rely on grid connected options displacing several diesel based systems, dozen MWs what would 5b. Opening market for independent diesel otherwise be diesel commercial sustainable systems, kerosene and car generator sets, 21,000 energy business batteries. kerosene households, and 2,000 diesel powered businesses. Cost by Areas of (million US$) (million US$) (million US$) Intervention 22.27 27.47 5.2 1. Risk Sharing Fund 1.70 4.18 2.48 2. TA, market incentives and communications 0.0 0.4 0.4 3. Participant monitoring 0.18 1.54 1.36 4. Management and 107 evaluations Miscellaneous costs GEF Incremental Costs 0. 24.15 0.04 33.63 0.04 9.48 Global Environmental Benefits The direct global environmental benefits of the Project are 0.5 million tons of CO2 over a period of fifteen years. The largest benefits will come from the switching of diesel fueled generators to coconut oil which accounts for nearly 0.4 million tons. The solar PV home components contributes about 80 thousand tons of CO2. Considering that at most 7% of the guarantee funds will be used or US$0.36 million, the total expected usage of total GEF funds under the program is US$4.64 million. The average cost of a ton of CO2 for this Project is US$9/ton CO2. Sustainability and Replicability Sustainability. Coupled with UNDP’s PIGGAREP project outputs, the access to equipment, information and finance in renewable energy and energy efficiency provided under this project is expected to lead to rapid increase of the use of modern energy services in the Pacific Islands both at the individual and micro and small enterprise level. Such increase will lead to the establishment of a mature market for renewable energy and energy efficiency in the participating countries. By working with the private sector to support commercially viable and demand-driven investments with financial support only in the form of risk sharing, facilitating lower interest rates and longer loan tenor, the projects insures that local FI establish a direct stake in this market. Experience with other housing and micro finance loan schemes suggests that the proportion of loan losses would be modest. The sustainability of the investments is expected to come from the fact that banks and financial institutions, once they have explored the renewable energy and energy efficiency market with the assistance of the risk sharing guarantee facilities offered under this project, will assess it as being a sound, viable, and profitable line of business. They will therefore generate lending products to address the market, and lower or eliminate their risk sharing requirements. Replicability. The project is already a partial replication from the Teachers Solar Lighting Project in PNG which is providing valuable information nine months after its start. The basic concept of replacing kerosene and diesel with renewable energy solutions at a monthly cash flow equal or less than what households and MSEs now pay for their fossil fuel based energy, through a financial intermediation method, is already considered for wide spread replication in Africa and other countries in Asia (Mongolia). Within each of the countries, replication of this commercial model is facilitated among other through active donor coordination by the Bank and the local governments to assure that donor programs by distributing free Solar PVs and other renewables don’t disturb the market place and that donations are in support of establishing a commercial market. 108 It is expected that after the first period of 7 years, banks will have recognized that lending for renewable energy is a profitable product line and will lower their guarantee requirements or altogether lend to the sector without guarantees. The funds freed up in this way will facilitate the project to be financed for a second period of seven years, inclusive of all GEF and IA supervision and monitoring costs, and will also facilitate the possibility to expand the range of products to include other renewables such as windmills and/or bio gas installation. Monitoring and evaluation, and dissemination Executive agencies in each country will provide detailed data on project outcomes through the semi-annual reports extracted from a performance-based monitoring scheme, which is described as a separate competent of this project (Component 3). For the households, the management consultant hired by each of the EAs will collect and process (twice a year for the first 3 years) the surveys filled out by program participants. The survey will address both technical implementation questions (for example, the time taken to obtain a replacement lamp), and economic and social impact of the new or improved access to modern energy services (for example, increased income and savings due to lower cost for energy, additional productive hours for, men and women, and improved literacy among others by children studying in the evenings using electric light). This aspect of the monitoring will stop after the third year. For the MSEs, the collection of data will be done through direct interviews and will focus on the business characteristics of the supported enterprises such as balance sheet, profitability, growth of the business. For PFIs , the EAs will collect information on the size and quality of their portfolio for this project. Based on the PFI data, the EAs will also track and interview retailers which have not received financing through this project. The all data combined will result in semi-annually reports, which will inform the implementing agencies also on the renewable energy systems installed, the quality and reliability of services provided by suppliers and the results in actual CO2 emissions avoided. The first participant monitoring survey (Component 3) and interviews will include the collection of baseline data for key performance indicators, which will inform the two planned evaluations for the project. The first evaluation is scheduled at the end of the second year. Beside traditional evaluation issues, including social and economic impact, this evaluation will inform the implementing agencies about the possible need to expand the guarantee fund through a mechanism describe in Annex 4: Leveraging the project. The second evaluation will take place at the end of year five and will addressing the success or failure of the project will also need to inform the implementing agencies about the exact exit procedures. If the project is successful, the released guarantees, can provide financing for a second project term, with significant lower guarantees from the fund, freeing up funds to finance the supervision and management contracts for the extension of this project without recourse to fresh GEF funding. 109 Productive uses Special attention will be given to educate the users of the benefits of productively using the electricity provided by the renewable energy system. This applies in particular to the stand-alone systems for entrepreneurs and households. In coordination with the PIGGAREP a structured awareness creation program will be implemented to improve the general awareness of the benefits of electricity as well as a more specific program for the new users of electricity (through the dealers, developers and NGOs). The awareness program will explain the higher quality enduses that can be created through the efficient use of electricity. Best practices from other countries (like Indonesia and Sri Lanka) will be incorporated in the design. It is expected that the affordability of the systems will increase with this program and that the general level of income will increase. GEF Role / catalytic involvement In the Pacific Forum of the Finance Ministers of the Pacific Islands held in Washington, DC in September 2005, several PICs requested the World Bank to provide urgent Bank assistance to expand sustainable energy use and energy efficiency to offset the increased price of oil, which has already had a significant adverse effect on their economies. The Bank and GEF are wellpositioned to provide the necessary funds and technical expertise to meet this request, which is consistent with the Bank’s strategy for the Pacific region16. GEF provides three catalytic elements to the program: (i) guarantee funds to provide the finance sector with the backing to issue tailored loans for the renewable energy sector; (ii) co-financing grants to provide the private sector with incentives to grow while at the same time covering some of the incremental costs; (iii) technical assistance to remove barriers as defined by the stakeholders; and, (iv) best practice expertise from other countries with similar renewable energy programs. Consultation, coordination and collaboration The most important partnership under this project is with the UNDP-RoP project as well as with the South Pacific Renewable Energy Project (SPREP), which is executing the PIGGAREP project on behalf of UNDP. The project also works together with the EC delegations in the country. In Solomon Islands and PNG, the EC Micro-Project Programme Phase II will provide parallel financing for pico-hydro and fuel switching for rural training centers and farmers field schools. In RMI, SEFP works together with the EC funded REP-5. In all countries, local NGOs, community groups and Universities have offered their assistance with the implementation of the project (letters of support in the Documents on File). Some foundations in Fiji and in PNG will make financial contributions to the project or provide parallel financing for project related activities. 16 The countries are covered under the Bank’s Pacific Regional Strategy for FY 2006 FY 2009. 110 Annex 16: STAP Roster Review PACIFIC ISLANDS: Sustainable Energy Finance Project To: adewilde@worldbank.org, jexel@exelonline.org Address: Antonie de Wilde Coordinator Asia Sustainable and Alternative Energy Program (ASTAE) The World Bank, East Asia Energy Unit, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433 Te1: .202.473.7436 Cel: 1.202.361.1491 Fax: 1.202.522.1648 From: Daniel M. Kammen Class of 1935 Distinguished Professor of Energy Energy and Resources Group #3050 University of California Berkeley, CA 94720-3050 Review: Pacific Islands Sustainable Energy Finance Project Date: March 22, 2006 Overall: This is an excellent project that should be supported, and I recommend approval. The scale of the funding appears sufficient, and the diversity of particular technologies and allowable innovations give the overall structure an important level of robustness. The risks identified for the project (page 16, several of which are conservatively listed as ‘Significant’, are really no more than generic risks when technology introduction is involved. Personally, I would have assessed this project as ‘M’ risk. The only structural change I would recommend is the inclusion of explicit metrics of job creation in the overall design (see item on page 7 under ‘Specific Comments’). The only place this sort of analysis really appears is p. 97, ‘Broad[er] development goals’. Response: staff additions by the different companies or supplementary sub-contracting to local specialists or individuals by participating companies will be an outcome of normal commercial practices. Experiences from other countries show that the employment generated by the sustainable energy industry is relatively easy to obtain and good to link to 111 the assistance provided under a larger-scale program. The project supports the idea to monitor job creation and has included it as a measurable indicator in the monitoring and evaluation component. The incremental cost analysis, Appendix 15, could be significantly more analytic, and it would be helpful so that cost comparisons across technologies and island can be made. Response: the available data for the incremental cost analysis was rudimentary in part as a result of the relative small number of commercial transaction in the supported countries. Data for financial analyses and cost comparisons will be collected under the program and published as part of the Approved Product Catalogue. More detail review and analysis of this data will take place as part of the two evaluations scheduled during project implementation. Specific Comments: Project Goals, Page 7: Why not include local employment growth as a quantifiable project goal? If this program is to work well, and certainly well enough to be re-authorized for the second seven-year stint, building local companies (as simple as installers, as extensive as local manufacturing) would seem both likely, and a crucial bench-mark of performance. Response: see response to first general comment above. Section D (financial analysis). The project would do well to take a more extensive look at the solar PV dissemination process and market in East Africa. The reason for this is that the spectrum between the very well evolved Kenyan PV solar home system market (>30,000 system sales/year, Duke, et al,, 2002) and the nearby more embryonic (Uganda, Tanzania) markets. The lack of price supports/subsidies in East Africa contrasts with the support systems that this project will have, which in each case makes the Pacific Islands projects appear all the more attractive. In the ‘References’ section below, a number of references, a well as a link to this set of papers is attached. Response: agree with the comment; lessons from other countries (for example PNG, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, China) have been included in the design of the project. One of which is the challenge to overcome the initial cost barrier for retailers and installers through performance based co-financing grants. The grant is only available for the first 10,000 systems installed under this project. The co-financing amount, based on the incremental cost analysis is USD2 for each Wp installed. This amount will be disbursed after the sale and installation have been completed satisfactory (as indicated through the customer acceptance receipt) and after sales arrangements have been agreed upon with the customer. Page 13: The co-financing grant of US$2/Wp is particularly interesting and important as it reflects, to many analysts, the clearest way to build a market for a potentially very useful but unfamiliar technology. The management of these funds, as were seen in East Africa, however, can be better used if the support goes to installers, with a (difficult to enforce) requirement for pass-through of savings. The reason for this is that such a structure builds 112 both consumer demands as they see lower up-front costs, and because this puts funds in the pocket of the fledgling entrepreneurial community, which must be grown to make this industry sustainable. Response: agree with the comment; essential for the growth of the industry is a relatively quick increase of transactions by dealers up to their break-even point. The co-financing grants provide the dealers with an additional incentive to complete transactions of qualified products including after sales service agreements. Page 25: Both the Fiji and Solomon Island situations – and others I suspect, but the PCD does not make this explicit -- appear to be ripe for an investment simply in education. The dry-cell costs, while large on a $/kWh basis (often over $2/kWh) are very high compared to long-term PV costs, but the familiarity with this ongoing cost, that a program to educate people about their different energy costs, may be exceedingly effective. Response: agree with the comment; the program(in association with UNDP’s implemented PIGGAREP program) will support general awareness creation of the cost-effectiveness of alternative energy products for potential users through mass media and promotions. It will further assists dealers to design marketing material explaining that the avoided cost of current energy sources used by the consumer (kerosene, dry cell batteries) could cover the monthly installments of an alternative energy system. Page 36: The proposal makes it unclear how a relationship may be restarted with Micronesia. Response: Micronesia is a participant of the project. Page 37: The PNG Road Maintenance project, hardly seem relevant beyond the basics of needed access. Page 71: The economic assumptions used the calculation of the LCA costs and benefits of a 30 Wp solar system need not be assumptions. There is plentiful data on systems of this size in the East Africa and Indonesian markets. Response: the cost of a solar system has been based on initial data provided by several of the solar dealers in the larger countries assisted under the program. References: Moner-Girona, M., Ghanadan, R., Jacobson, A., and Kammen, D. M. (2006) “Decreasing PV costs in Africa,” ReFocus: The International Renewable Energy Magazine, January/February, 40 – 45. Jacobson, A. and Kammen, D. M. (2005) “ Science and engineering research that values the plant”, The Bridge: Journal of the National Academy of Engineering, Winter, 11 – 17. 113 Duke, R. D. and Kammen, D. M. (2003) “Energy for Development: Solar Home Systems in Africa and Global Carbon Emissions “Climate Change for Africa: Science, Technology, Policy and Capacity Building, Pak Sum Low, editor (Kluwer Academic Publishers), 250 - 266. Duke, Richard. D, Jacobson, Arne, and Daniel M. Kammen (2002) “Product quality in the Kenyan solar home industry”, Energy Policy, 30 (6), 477-499. Solar PV papers available online at http://rael.berkeley.edu/solar.html 114 Annex 17: Maps PACIFIC ISLANDS: Sustainable Energy Finance Project 115