Expert slams wave threat inertia
Tuesday, 10 August, 2004
A scientist has attacked the inaction over a threat from a
dangerous volcano in the Canary Islands which could send
a tidal wave crashing against the US.
Bill McGuire of the Benfield Grieg Hazard Research Centre said no
one was keeping a proper watch on the mountain.
If Cumbre Vieja volcano erupts, it may send a rock slab the size
of a small island crashing into the sea, creating a huge tidal wave, The tsunami could race across the
or tsunami.
Atlantic at the speed of a jumbo jet
Walls of water 300 feet high would travel to the US at the speed of a jet.
Within three hours, the wave would swamp the east coast of Africa, within five hours it would
reach southern England and within 12 it could hit America's east coast.
The rock is in the process of slipping into the sea, but the trigger that sends it into the Atlantic
is likely to be an eruption of Cumbre Vieja. According to Professor McGuire, Cumbre Vieja could
blow "any time".
New York, Washington DC, Boston and Miami would be almost
wiped out by the tsunami generated by the insecure rock falling
into the Atlantic.
"Eventually, the whole rock will collapse into the water, and the
collapse will devastate the Atlantic margin," said Professor
McGuire, of the Benfield Grieg Hazard Research Centre.
We need to raise
awareness, identify
threats and improve
surveillance
Bill McGuire, Benfield Grieg
Hazard Research Centre
"We need to be out there now looking at when an eruption is likely to happen...otherwise there
will be no time to evacuate major cities."
The two or three seismographs designed to pick up signs of movement in the rock could not
detect a volcanic eruption weeks in advance, McGuire said.
He urged the governments of Spain and the US to fund monitoring of the volcanically active La
Palma - a project he said could be achieved relatively cheaply.
Global strategy
Professor McGuire and other experts speaking at a news conference on natural disasters on
Monday said the global community needs to monitor and develop strategies to cope in the face
of a catastrophe such as the one that Cumbre Vieja could cause.
Global Geophysical Events, or "Gee Gees", as they are nick-named, are not being taken
seriously enough, they say.
However, good progress is being made in reducing the threat of asteroid impacts, researchers
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said.
Since 9/11 we have become acutely aware of the threat of
terrorism. Governments worldwide are battening down the
hatches and ratcheting up the security.
But some scientists believe we are ignoring threats with similar,
or greater, potential to devastate human populations.
Giant walls of water that can devastate coastal cities, volcanoes
so big that their ash crushes houses 1,500km (932 miles) away,
giant earthquakes and asteroid impacts. These are very rare
events and, if we are lucky, nothing like them will happen in our
lifetimes.
The global community needs to monitor
the risk posed by Gee Gees, scientists
claim
But in the longer term, Gee Gees may be our undoing if we do not take action, say researchers.
Careful preparation could potentially save thousands of lives, they say.
Super eruption
Volcanoes and earthquakes are relatively common occurrences, but Gee Gees are on an
altogether different scale.
The last "super volcanic eruption" was back in April 1815, when Tambora in Indonesia exploded
violently in what was the largest eruption in historic time.
The eruption column reached a height of about 44 km (28 miles), ash fell as far as 1,300 km
(800 miles) from the volcano - and an estimated 92,000 people were killed.
Global governments are not entirely ignoring the threat of Gee
Gees, however.
Some think the greatest danger to humanity comes from
asteroids, but steps are underway to tackle the threat.
The European Space Agency (Esa) and Nasa are planning
missions to test how the course of asteroids and comets can be
altered by an impact.
A quiet and largely
unnoticed technological
revolution is dramatically
accelerating the rate at
which near-Earth
asteroids (NEAs) are
discovered
Benny Peiser, Liverpool John
Moores University
Esa's mission Don Quijote will send a spacecraft crashing into the surface of a space rock to
measure the effects. In 2005, Nasa's Deep Impact will monitor the outcome of blowing a hole in
comet Tempel 1.
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Scientists hope this will help them learn how to destroy or deflect
an asteroid on a collision course with Earth.
According to Benny Peiser, of Liverpool John Moores University,
UK, the threat of cosmic mega disasters will be essentially
"abolished within 30 years".
"A quiet and largely unnoticed technological revolution is
dramatically accelerating the rate at which near-Earth asteroids
(NEAs) are discovered," he said.
Work funded by the US government is
swiftly tackling the threat posed by
asteroids
In 1995 we knew about 300 NEAs, today we know about 3,000 and within 20 years we could be aware of 90% of all nearby space rocks, he says.
"For the first time in the history of evolution we are closing this window of vulnerability."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3553368.stm
Hollywood fantasy? Tidal wave disaster is just
waiting to happen
Scientist says governments are ignoring threat of a piece of
rock as big as the Isle of Man crashing into the Atlantic
Ian Sample, science correspondent
Tuesday August 10, 2004
The Guardian
It has everything you could wish for in a cliche-ridden disaster movie. A
beautiful volcanic island in the Atlantic is on the brink of catastrophic
collapse, threatening to unleash giant waves that will wreak havoc around
the globe within hours. And while scientists try in vain to make their
concerns heard, the world's governments look the other way.
But yesterday a leading expert claimed the doom-laden scenario was not only real but was being
almost completely ignored by people in power.
Bill McGuire, the director of the Benfield Grieg Hazard Research Centre at University College
London, said a huge chunk of rock, roughly the size of the Isle of Man, was
on the brink of breaking off the volcanic island of La Palma in the Canaries.
When - Professor McGuire says it is not a matter of if - the rock plunges into the ocean it will
trigger giant waves called mega-tsunamis.
Travelling at speeds of up to 560mph, the huge walls of water will tear across the ocean and hit
islands and continents, leaving a trail of destruction.
Mega-tsunami waves are much longer than the ones we are used to.
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"When one of these comes in, it keeps on coming for 10 to 15 minutes," Prof McGuire said.
"It's like a huge wall of water that just keeps coming."
Computer models of the island's collapse show the first regions to be hit, with waves topping 100
metres (330ft), will be the neighbouring Canary Islands. Within a few hours
the west coast of Africa will be battered with similar-sized waves.
Between nine and 12 hours after the island collapses, waves between 20 and 50
metres high will have crossed 4,000 miles of ocean to crash
into the Caribbean islands and the eastern seaboard of the US
and Canada.
The worst-hit will be harbours and estuaries, which will channel the waves inland.
The loss of life and destruction to property will probably be
immense, according to Prof McGuire.
Britain would not escape entirely, he added. Waves of around 10 metres are
likely to strike the south coast four to five hours after the island
collapses, causing damage to seaside resorts and ports.
Such devastating natural disasters are rare, occurring on average every 10,000
years. But La Palma could collapse much sooner than that.
"The thing about La Palma is we know it's on the move now,"
Prof McGuire said.
The island came to the attention of scientists in 1949 when its volcano, Cumbre
Vieja, erupted, causing a huge chunk of its western flank to
drop four metres into the ocean. Scientists believe the chunk of
land is still slipping slowly into the water, and say another
eruption is likely to make the entire western flank collapse.
"When it goes, it will likely collapse in around 90 seconds," Prof
McGuire said.
Precarious
Despite the potential scale of the threat, little is being done to monitor the
geological activity of La Palma. Only a few seismometers have
been set up on the precarious western flank of the island,
which do not provide enough information to predict when
another eruption might occur.
"It's really a worrying situation," Prof McGuire said. "It will almost certainly go
during an eruption. The problem is that with just a few
seismometers on the island, we may not get the notice we
need."
The scientist called for an international effort to install more sophisticated sensors
on the island, as well as global positioning satellite units to
detect how quickly the land mass was falling into the ocean.
"We need to have better monitoring so we know when an
eruption is about to happen," he said. Such a system could
cost as little as a few hundred thousand dollars.
"The US government must be aware of the La Palma threat. They should
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certainly be worried, and so should the island states in the
Caribbean that will really bear the brunt of a collapse.
"They're not taking it seriously. Governments change every four to five years and
generally they're not interested in these things."
Even with new monitoring equipment in place, La Palma presents a difficult
problem for those charged with mitigating against natural
disasters.
Little can be done to protect against the waves produced when La Palma
collapses. Barriers would not be able to sustain the battering,
and breaking the island apart before it collapses is either too
dangerous or time-consuming.
New sensors could warn of an impending eruption two weeks in advance. But no
one knows whether the island will collapse during the next
eruption, or in an eruption that will not happen for centuries.
Ordering mass evacuations would have a huge financial impact that could cause
resentment if it turned out to be a false alarm. The disaster
could affect up to 100 million people from the coast of Africa to
the Canary islands and the east coast of North America.
"The future president of the US has got to make a call at some point, that when
La Palma erupts, what is he going to do?" Prof McGuire said.
"Is he going to evacuate all the major cities on the east coast? If he gets it wrong,
nobody's ever going to pay attention again and he'll be out of a
job."
Tidal wave threat 'over-hyped'
By Ali Ayres
in Southampton
Friday, 29 October, 2004, 11:08 GMT
The risk of a landslide in the Canary Islands causing a
tidal wave (tsunami) able to devastate America's east
coast is vastly overstated.
That is the view of marine geologists studying ancient
landslides in the area.
In typical Canary Island landslides, chunks of land break off
in bits, not in one dramatic plunge, they argue.
The researchers behind the original
claim are sticking to their guns
This contradicts previous warnings that an Isle of Man-sized
chunk of land could fall off the island of La Palma into the sea, causing a mega-tsunami.
However, the researchers behind the original claim are sticking to their guns, pointing to
evidence of catastrophic past events in the region.
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'Worst-case scenario'
Back in 1999, scientists at University College London published a paper about a volcano on
the island of La Palma. They predicted that, if it erupted, the volcano could cause a
landslide in which a massive chunk of land fell into the ocean.
They then proposed that a landslide this big would generate a mighty tsunami big enough
to cross the Atlantic, devastating the Caribbean and the eastern seaboard of the US.
With talk of a possible wall of water 50m high, their
predictions were jumped on by the world's media.
But researchers taking part in a three-week research cruise
aboard Southampton Oceanography Centre's research ship,
the RRS Charles Darwin, say the threat is far lower than
previous warnings would suggest.
If you break [a brick] up
into 10 pieces and drop them
in one by one you're going to
get 10 much smaller
splashes
Russell Wynn, Southampton
Oceanography Centre
Doug Masson, who has been researching Canary Islands
landslides for 20 years, says the models are a worst-case scenario.
Coring equipment is being used to collect samples of rock sediment deposited by
underwater avalanches that were in turn caused by previous landslides on La Palma.
By looking at layering in the sediments, the scientists can
work out whether the debris landed on the ocean floor in one
big lump or in several smaller stages. And the Southampton
researchers say that other samples from the Canaries
suggest their "bit-by-bit" scenario is common, if not
ubiquitous to these landslides.
Russell Wynn, who is leading the research cruise, says it
means there is a lot less to worry about if a landslide is
triggered.
"If you take a brick and drop it in a bath you're going to
generate quite a big splash.
Researchers on board the RRS Charles
Darwin say the threat is far lower than
previous warnings would suggest
"But if you break the brick up into 10 pieces and drop them in one by one you're going to
get 10 much smaller splashes".
Melting rock
None of this impresses the team that proposed the original mega-tsunami theory. Bill
McGuire is director of the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College London. He
argues that evidence on the surface of the Canary Islands shows that previous landslides
have been catastrophic.
On the island of El Hierro, a semi-circular escarpment of rock left behind after a landslide is
covered in melted rock. Conclusive evidence, says Bill McGuire, of a dramatic event.
"This thing moved so quickly that it heated the rock through friction and melted it. That is a
catastrophic event," he said.
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Other evidence that Canary Islands landslides have had a colossal impact has come from
the Bahamas themselves where boulders of rock have been discovered 20m above sealevel.
How they got there was a mystery until the timing of their deposition was linked to a past
landslide - in the Canaries. Many scientists now believe that landslides in the past have
triggered deadly mega-tsunamis.
So Bill McGuire is sticking to the predictions his team have made. Making no apology for
backing a worst-case model, he says: "There's no question of hiding things. If you're
planning for any future disaster you're not going to consider the least disastrous scenario,
you're going to consider the most."
When Southampton's marine geologists return to the UK, they hope to bring with them
evidence that landslides in the Canary Islands are more gradual events
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/3963563.stm
Wednesday January 5, 02:36 AM
Canary Islands volcano divides tsunami scientists
By Daniel Flynn
MADRID (Reuters) - A wall of water up to 50 metres high crashing into the
Atlantic seaboard of the United States, flattening everything in its path -not a Hollywood movie but a dire prophecy by some British and U.S.
academics.
As the international community struggles to aid victims of last month's
devastating tsunami in southern Asia, scientists warn an eruption of a
volcano in Spain's Canary Islands could unleash a "mega-tsunami" larger
than any in recorded history.
According to their controversial study, an explosion of the Cumbre Vieja
volcano on the island of La Palma could send a chunk of rock twice the size
of the Isle of Wight into the Atlantic at up to 350 kilometres (220 miles) an
hour.
Many experts believe the risk of "mega-tsunamis" from such a massive
landslide on La Palma has been hugely overstated.
But in the study's scenario, energy released would equal the electricity
consumption of the United States for six months, sending gigantic tidal
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waves across the Atlantic at the speed of a jet plane.
Devastation in the United States would reach trillions of dollars with tens of
millions of lives at risk. Spain, Portugal, Britain, France, Brazil, the
Caribbean and West Africa would also be swamped by giant waves.
"It may occur in the next eruption, which could be next year, or ... it may be
10 eruptions down the line," said Bill McGuire of Britain's Benfield Hazard
Research Centre.
Cumbre Vieja, which last exploded in 1971, typically erupts at intervals of
between 20 and 200 years.
"We just don't know when it will happen, but are people prepared to take
the risk after the Indian Ocean events?" McGuire said, calling for a
programme to monitor the slide in Cumbre Vieja's flank.
"We need to get people out in advance of the collapse itself. Once the
collapse has happened, the Caribbean would have 9 hours, the U.S. 6 to 12
hours to evacuate tens of millions of people," he said.
SCAREMONGERING?
Other experts say such predictions about La Palma or the Hawaiian volcano
of Kilauea are grossly exaggerated.
The Tsunami Society, an international association of experts, dismisses such
theories as "scaremongering". It argues Cumbre Vieja would not collapse in
a single block and the wave generated would be much smaller.
"We are talking about thousands of years in the future. Anything could
happen. An asteroid could also fall on earth," George Pararas-Carayannis,
founder of the Tsunami Society, said.
Many wave experts believe tsunami from abrupt landslides dissipate more
quickly than those generated by powerful earthquakes, like the December
26 quake off Indonesia which stretched thousands of miles along the ocean
floor.
Charles Mader, editor of the Science of Tsunami Hazards journal and an
expert on wave modelling, predicts that even in the event of a massive
landslide on La Palma the tsunami reaching North America would be no
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more than 1 metre high.
But McGuire stands by the wave modelling for the La Palma tsunami, carried
out by Steven Ward of the University of California.
As the world reels from the Indian Ocean disaster, which killed more than
150,000 people, oceanographers and geologists agree the threat of
tsunamis has been underestimated.
"It would not surprise me at all if tomorrow we saw another tsunami like
this," said Pararas-Carayannis, pointing to faults off Portugal, Puerto Rico
and Peru as possible risks.
For McGuire, a warning system in the Indian Ocean could have completely
prevented loss of life in Sri Lanka and India from south Asian tsunami, as in
most cases people would only have had to travel 1 kilometre inland to avoid
the waves.
He ranks tsunami risk as second only to global warming in the hazards
facing the planet.
"With coastlines massively built up now, particularly in developing countries,
tsunami are a big problem because, unlike earthquakes, they transmit death
and destruction across entire oceans," he said
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,1279710,00.html
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