FINAL VERSION REGULATING STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES IN INFRASTRUCTURE by S L Rao with assistance from Vivek Sharma of TERI This paper is based on the experience of regulating the electricity sector in India. It is about “independent regulation” and not normal regulation by government. The experience of regulating the electricity sector is a template for the experience in regulating other infrastructure areas such as telecommunications, transportationroads, railways, civil aviation and shipping, water, sanitation, and oil, and gas. The emphasis is on independent regulation, that is, by a regulator who is by law not subservient to anyone including government, and whose decisions can only be overruled by a judicial body after following the appropriate procedures. Administrative officials and Ministers represent government as owner in India. The latter are elected and change frequently depending on the whim of the head of the government, electoral performance and changes in governments. The former tend to have relatively longer tenures in the owner Ministry, though at the top, they also are subject to being shifted because of their equations with the political powers of the day. The Minister, the Secretary to the Ministry who is the Head of the Department, the Joint Secretary specifically in charge who usually sits on the Board of the state owned enterprise, and other officials are the people through who the will of government is conveyed to the enterprise. This may be done formally, through written communications, or informally, through verbal communications face-to-face or over the telephone. But the will of government as conveyed through any of its officials, usually has to be obeyed despite the autonomous nature of some of these state-owned enterprises, for fear of consequences. These consequences could range from pinpricks such as not approving overseas tour plans, staff selections, service extensions, investment programmes, to charge sheeting and termination. The Chairman-cum-Managing director of the enterprise, who is the CEO, will usually obey, or might try to reason it out, knowing that in the end, he has no choice but to obey. However, electricity is a little more complicated. The Ministry is staffed by officers and Ministers who are at best, generalists. They are awed by the apparent technical complexity of electricity, and by the likely public repercussions of decisions. They can therefore be quite easily deflected by clever top electricity officials from what they wish to do, by the threat of complex technical and public reactions. The management of the state owned enterprise in the electricity sector has therefore a great deal of influence on any decisions affecting the sector. This is compounded by the fact that the enterprise is able to offer favours to the Ministry in picking up expenses that even when even when legitimate, are not possible because of restrictive government rules. In addition of course, are the much larger pay-offs to individuals and political parties that are possible on large contracts, projects and purchases. The electricity enterprise also lends its ‘expert’ staff to the Ministry, and is therefore fully informed about the trend of discussions on decisions affecting the sector, at every stage, and is able to influence the decisions in directions that are favourable to the enterprise. There is a strong vested interest in the government to retain control over enterprises owned by it This is the chief reason why in India, privatization of state owned enterprises is preferred over other means of distancing government from the enterprise. State ownership also mires the enterprise in subsidies and crosssubsidies, in an attempt to help the ‘poor’ at the cost of the ‘rich’. Very soon, these build up into huge liabilities that have to be borne by the enterprise, since government is unable to finance them out of its budget. In India, the state electricity boards in 2000-01 had deficits on operations that in total came to over half of the revenue deficits of the state governments. These deficits preclude the state governments from doing the things for which it is most responsible, the improvement of the physical and social infrastructures. State ownership also leads to higher costs of operations. Overstaffing is inevitable, as people are employed on compassionate and populist grounds than on need. Discipline is given the backseat. Inefficiencies abound and add to the deficits. There is little accountability of top officers or others for performance. Inevitably generalist administrators replace professionals as CEO’s. They have short tenures and little incentive to leave a lasting impression on the enterprise. Reforms in India in the infrastructure have meant opening up to private investment, introducing independent regulation of tariffs and investment approvals, creating conditions for competition to develop, giving the consumer choice, reducing and eliminating inefficiencies, eliminating subsidies and cross-subsidies as charges on the service providers, and aiming to create conditions in which the market determines tariffs. The first state to reform in electricity was Orissa. Orissa government appropriated to itself the substantial moneys paid by buyers for buying the distribution circles. The Government earned Rs.1590 million through disinvestment of 51% of its shares by private sector participation in four distribution circles. Prior to reforms the Government of Orissa was providing subventions to OSEB under section 59 of the Supply Act 1948. This practice was withdrawn immediately in the post-reform period. In the process GoO saved subsidy payment of about Rs.27.70 billion during the period 1995-96 to 2000-01. However the generating company was left to carry the substantial accumulated liabilities of the past years when the electricity operations were bundled together. At the same time a transmission company was created which would buy all the required electricity and sell it to the private distribution companies. The information given to the latter on the transmission and distribution losses was of very poor quality, and the new companies made much larger losses than they anticipated. Their inability to pay for the electricity they bought from the transmission company left it unable to pay the generating companies from which it had bought the electricity. Today, each of the companies is in financial difficulty, and the customer is unhappy with the availability and quality of the electricity. As per the projections made by consultant and intimated to prospective bidders, it was expected that WESCO & NESCO would achieve turn around by 1999-00, SOUTHCO by 2000-01 and CESCO by 2001-02. However, none of the DISTCOs could achieve this and suffered losses even at the end of the third year Table 1: Source: Projected figures given in the IM and actual performance fi 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02* WESCO 65.6 (581.8) 389.3 (1118.9) 493.1 (408.1) NESCO 168.6 (542.7) 467.9 (1228.0 778.3 (2080.5 ) ) SOUTHCO (258.5) (873.7) 435.0 (860.5) 222.0 (837.2) CESCO (1295.6 (1777.3) (391.5) (1722.9) 1321.2 (2396.8 ) ) gures collected from the OERC. The figures in parenthesis indicate net loss * unaudited The Regulator faces many dilemmas. He has poor information from the companies, according to which he decides on the tariff. But because of unreliable data there is huge mismatch between the estimated (proposed) and actual numbers. For example, leaving apart the approved figure by the Regulator, there is huge difference between the proposed and actual T&D loss.(Table 2) Table 2: Extent of unreliable information on T & D Losses Regulatory Dilemma Propose Approve Actual d d MSEB 200027.66% 26.87% 39.40% 01 200139.49% 39.49% 02 UPPCL 200034.97% 29.97% 39.47% 01 Orissa 199947.00% 35.00% 45.68% 00 200042.66% 34.00% 01 Haryana 200040.76% 35.76% 47.71% 01 Delhi Gujarat 200102 200001 46.80% 46.80% 57.00% 21% 30% 25% From the above table, one can conclude that the regulator has tried to bring about efficiency through approving reduced T&D losses. However in Gujarat the Regulator has taken a different view by increasing the approved loss percentage and reducing the agricultural consumption. The basis was that the estimates on agricultural consumption (as not metered) in the state, is actually less than the proposed number, where as, the losses in the other sector is more then the proposed number. Yet the regulator has to determine tariffs based on this unreliable information. His tariff decisions are invariably based on revenue and expenditure projections that go wrong. He is unable to determine tariffs for more than a year at a time because even one year’s projections are unsound. He is then accused of creating “regulatory uncertainty” because the distributor and his financiers do not know what the tariffs are likely to be. The consumers are unhappy because the availability is so irregular and quality remains poor. The fundamental weakness is the poor information base, the inefficiency of the state level generators, the inability of the state to pay up subsidies to selected customer groups, the past liabilities that have to be serviced from an inadequate income stream , and the increasing bellicosity of central government owned outside suppliers demanding to be paid. This we would discuss in detail in the following section. In all the states, the load dispatch function is with a state load dispatch center. This body has to neutrally match loads and dispatches. But in all states, this function remains with the state electricity board and where there is unbundling, with the state owned transmission company. The authority to regulate this function has to be passed on to the regulator by the state government. Till that happens, the regulator is regulating tariffs without being able to ensure that the matching of load and dispatch is balanced at all times. Without this authority, the Regulator has only partial authority and the system is not under proper regulation. The principal party in the transaction, the generator or the owner of the wires is doing the balancing when he is himself an interested and involved party in the transaction. The same contradiction exists at the central level where inter state transmission is regulated by the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission, but the regional load dispatch centres that do this balancing are under the authority of a central government owned enterprise, who in this case is also the interstate transmission monopoly enterprise. Similarly the CERC has to issue licenses to private investors in interstate transmission but the parties have to be first approved by the transmission monopoly. In both instances, the regulatory interventions by the CERC to provide a fair playing field, to prevent grid collapse, to ensure that all parties have a fair deal, are frustrated by the fact hat the transmission company is state owned and is able to get its owners’ approval to stall actions. There are therefore two aspects to government ownership that make independent regulation difficult. They are the inconsistencies, gaps and ambiguities in government policies; and the fact of government ownership and a consequent nexus (vested interest) in supporting the state owned enterprise. In this context there is also the issue of pre-existing power purchase agreements and their scrutiny by Regulators. This is seen by some as violation of the sanctity of contracts, even when the contracts were entered into by unfair or illegal methods, or the end result is a huge extra and avoidable burden on the consumer, when cheaper alternatives are available. The problems are accentuated by the nature of public governance. Many Ministries are created to find berths as Ministers for the maximum number of aspirants. This also helps the bureaucracy since so many more senior administrative jobs become available to them. Given the strong sense of turf among these functionaries, there is little coordination even when the Regulator requires it for his functioning. To take two examples, the CERC cannot regulate atomic energy even though all electricity irrespective of source, flows through the same wires, cannot be identified, and the CERC has to regulate interstate transmission as well as the tariffs. Another example is the regulation of the government owned Neiveli Lignite Coproration, an integrated generator using captive lignite mines. But coal is with another Ministry and not with CERC for regulation, so that the company can easily hide extra profits behind high coal transfer prices. Government ownership has enabled state electricity boards and companies to get away with gross violations of all principles of good governance. Regulators have to face this reality and have difficulties in working. Thus for example, Accounts are not finalized for many years by the state enterprise. Asset registers are either not kept or are out of date and so it is impossible to know what to take a s asset base for purposes of calculating return. In Uttar Pradesh, restructured distribution companies, KESCO (Kanpur area) and UPPCL, the Asset registers are not maintained. Interestingly during the Kanpur privatisation process it was realised by the consultants that there is no record on the number of transformers, feeders etc. the board is having. Similar situation was felt during the DVB privatisation. In Himachal Pradesh, the Himachal Pradesh State Electricity Board (HPSEB) has not finalised its accounts and does not maintain an asset register. The Regulator (HPERC) in its tariff order for the FY 2001-02 has directed the board to prepare and maintain fixed asset register. Unfortunately, till now no improvement has been made on this front. Poor estimation of revenues and expenditure, demand and supply. Examples- DEMAND FORECASTS FOR ELECTRICITY HAVE BEEN PERRNIALLY OVERESTIMATES; ESTIMATION OF REVENUES AND EXPENDITURES FOR TARIFF FILINGS THAT ARE REVISED REPEATEDLY In Orissa, viability exercise under the power sector reform has been worked out on the basis of certain assumptions of which projection of the demand for power was a major one. Unfortunately, the demand growth that came to be realised was very different as may be seen from the following Table 3: Extent of over estimate of demand Estimated Actuals % Actual to projected 1996-97 9785 9306 95.09% 1997-98 10902 9771 89.63% 1998-99 12726 10128 79.59% 1999-00 13902 10229 73.58% 2000-01 14809 11231 75.84% The assumption thus turned out to be highly ambitious compared with actuals. Apart from this, not only in terms of totals but also in the share between EHT and HT/LT demand. The latter is even more important for viability purpose because much of the T&C loss occurs in the HT/LT segment. Similar situation can be seen in other cost parameters approved by the Regulator. Let us closely look at the UPERC tariff order for the year 2000-01 on KESCO (Kanpur area) tariff petition. Table . UPERC Tariff order on KESCO tariff petition Propos ed 28.2% 78% Approv ed 25.2% 100% Difference (%) 3% 22% Actual * 32.3% 79.04 % 7.3% T&D loss % Collection efficiency Depreciation 7.3% 4.8% 2.5% rate Employee cost 37.22 32.24 13% 39 (crores) Revenue 605 545 10% 544 requested Source. UPERC Tariff Order for 2000-01, *Source: Tariff Petition filed by KESCO for 2001-02. In this particular case, it appears first that private investors do not find the distribution business viable, as is evident from the lack of interest by any bidders in the privatization process of KESCO even after the tariff order. Second, there is a perception among investors that the price-setting methodology (based on the ROR concept) employed by regulatory agencies is not conducive to long-term investments (Alexander and Harris, 2001). KESCO in the tariff petition for the year 2001-02 has demanded Multi year tariff framework. But the Commission has not accepted the framework stating following reasons/issues: (1) Sufficient data is not available to correctly set the initial level and benchmark improvements. In that event it is likely that either excess profits would be made, or company would make losses and request the Commission to re-open the issue. Either of theses would damage the credibility of the regulatory process. (2) Principles for sharing of risk if demand and/or demandmix changes substantially. (3) Basis for laying down targets for investments in advance and method for relating it to target improvements. (4) Linking of the return on capital base to achievement of certain performance standards such as improvement in service quality, extension of coverage to specified group of consumers’ etc. Before concluding our discussion let us quickly highlight the regulatory risk faced by the other utilities where reforms are in place and tariff order have been passed. A point that can be stressed here is that the regulators in their tariff order have tried to minimize tariff shocks to the consumers through reducing certain inefficiencies, like the reduction in T&D losses (see Table ). Table : Tariff Order1 passed by the respective Commission Distribution Propose Approve Reductio Company d d n HVPNL 24.69% 16.69% 8.00% Orissa-Discos 39.16% 34.00% 5.16% CESC 22.40% 16.80% 5.60% KESCO 28.20% 25.20% 5.50% 1 The source for the data is the first tariff passed by the Commission after unbundling of the business. From the above table we observe that the targets laid down by the regulator seem to be on the higher side. The utility faces a risk of not achieving these targets in one year and hence facing possible losses in future. A further risk lies in securing political support to implement harsh measures for reducing these inefficiencies. To sum up, on the one hand, the targets laid down by the regulator seem to be unachievable, and on the other hand they are not able to obtain that political support to disconnect illegal connections, reduce thefts and improve collection efficiency. There are many examples of the unnecessary appeals to Courts by state owned entities, with either explicit or implicit approval of the owners, namely the governments. Thus: CERC’s orders on operating norms for central government owned generating companies (that could have been a model for other Regulators) have been held up in the Courts for two years. Availability based tariffs (ABT) were a novel commercial method ordered by CERC to enforce grid discipline on all participants in the power system. The generators, mainly central government owned, had a vested interest in pushing as much electricity as possible into the system since their earnings could be so increased. This affected frequency adversely. The whole order was held up, with considerable continuing damage to expensive equipment of users because of quality variations, because the government undertakings went in appeal. The private entities in international experience, are more compliant, because they do not have the might of the government to give them support. The KERC tariff order of 2002 was suspended by government, quite illegally since the law does not give them the power to do so, and without justification. Subsidy reimbursements are not made by many state governments despite commitments made at the time of tariff hearings. There are serious data gaps with government controlled enterprises as well as unwillingness to provide data to regulators. For example, NTPC withheld data on production operations parameters from CERC. Finally, how can these problems be resolved since government ownership is not likely to go in a hurry, and Regulators will also remain? One answer is to completely distance the government enterprises from the controlling Ministry. However, this has not worked despite attempts in many public enterprises since 1988 to do so. These include the government and the pse concerned entering into a MOU about the targets and responsibilities of each but have ended up as paper exercises to be done by the pse, since the Ministry concerned is able to commit only for itself, not for the rest of government. Another answer is to truncate the size of a Ministry after creation of a Regulatory Commission, since it will be doing things that were earlier the responsibility of the Ministry. This means the loss of power and jobs for many and especially lower level officers, something which no politician or senior bureaucrat (in service) is willing to implement. Another possibility is to put all appeals on fast track. This may happen with the creation of a special appellate body for electricity. However, TRAI has such an appellate authority and it has made no difference to the speed of the appeals process. The Regulatory process is made a mockery so long as government is the owner of controller of substantial parts of the regulated systems. The pse’s are even able to influence appointments of regulators and staffs through their connections with the governments concerned. It can work only if the Courts and public opinion are able to clean up the system. Until that happens, the process of independent regulation will be severely hobbled. It will limp along until privatisation, competition, choice for customers, become common. For that to happen, markets and trading with adequate regulation to ensure fairness, an independently run transmission/transportation-(wires in electricity) system is in place. Governments will act only when compelled by fiscal crisis. We need to see collapse of the pse.s before their revival through reform.