Commonwealth Tourism Business Forum
27April 2005
Abuja, Nigeria
I want to set the scene for this Forum with a round up of major
trends.
The bottom line for global tourism is good.
International Tourist Arrivals increased to 760 million in 2004 – a
significant rise of 10% over the stagnant year before.
Commonwealth tends track this well.
But most of the tourism activity is centred around the major 7
countries, who account for 80 % of the activity. The other 45 get 20%
only.
With the 50 states of Africa picking up less than 4%
This global turn around happened and continues despite the
Tsunami which is an immense human tragedy, 280,000 dead,
Shattered families, devastated businesses (particularly small scale )
But whose impact in our sector is limited
Globally less than 3% of world tourism and the directly affected areas
only a small proportion of that. Around 80% of the existing capacity is
operational.
Markets are moving fast to keep pace with the evolving globalization
– driven as much by technology, opening borders and trade
Industry results better against the growth backdrop, and cost cutting.
Leisure travel is the major component of growth. .
The trend towards Internet sales continued – some estimates suggest
that more than 30% of bookings. Tour operators are now finding the
technology to offer customers individual choices on package
Commonwealth Business Forum Abuja
April 2005
components, which puts more pressure on travel agents, who are
transitioning from a supplier to customer commission.
Big issue of where benefits of multinational market expansion really
flow and how to increase value to small poorer destinations. It will
grow in importance. The call for action to reduce so called economic
leakages and to strengthen local market linkages is rightly
intensifying.
Continuing adaptation in travel systems to new security
requirements; with transport inspections strengthening and slow
extension to conference centres and major tourism related events.
This has major cost implications already, as well as creating
increased pressures in terms of congestion. This area will continue to
grow and will be an increasing challenge for poorer states and of
comparative advantage to innovators.
Dynamic Market Structures – both in terms of origins of travelers,
changing demographics and of new competitors in the destination
marketplace.
The second generation Asian tigers. Millions of
potential customers and together with Eastern Europe are likely to
form tourism export powerhouse in the years ahead..
A final issue of market “development” is the shift that continues in
respect of culture, adventure and eco travel – which is one of the
fastest growth areas. This is a result of a combination of consumer
lifestyle change, increasing “environmental” regulation & more social
issues in the overall environmental mix.
The geo-political climate for tourism has undoubtedly improved in the
past year. The elections in Iraq, Afghanistan & the United States
created a prospect for new constructive multilateral actions. The
global Tsunami response was an indication of what can be achieved
in the face of commonly recognized adversity.
On the other hand, the new emphasis on global warming is not so
encouraging for our sector. Many destinations are at risk from rising
sea levels or changing climates.
Commonwealth Business Forum Abuja
April 2005
This has a variety of implications – there are already calls from the
highest political levels in Europe to look at taxes on aviation fuel or
other aspects of travel, as ways to moderate global warming by
reducing demand. This in turn raises questions as to how to ensure
that the effect is not a further burden on small poor countries – which
need special attention to build their Tourism exports.
But the most significant shift is clearly in relation to the war on
poverty
The heat on poverty has intensified and will continue to do so. There
is also an increasing awareness throughout government, industry and
civil society that issues like governance, trade, aid, debt relief,
security, health and security are closely interlinked under the banner
of the war on poverty.
There is also a recognition that new dynamic “asymmetrical”
balancing mechanisms are needed to respond to these initiatives and
that tactics and strategy must be multilaterally consonant. There is
also a reality that while poverty exists everywhere – even in the most
developed states - the worst situation is here in sub-Saharan Africa
and that the global response will have Africa as its point of focus.
New consensus thinking has emerged in the Doha Round where
there are n initiatives to forge a real pro - development agenda
essential for 2005 deadlines.
Widening and deepening support for the Millennium
Development Goals, reflected in the actions of national governments
linking them to PRSP plans as well as in initiatives of multilateral
agencies (like the World Bank’s Country Assistance Strategies) and
the UN Family. The September 2005 UN Review will provide an
opportunity for assessment and recommitment.
Regional bodies like the EU are also integrating the MDG’s into their
development agenda, as are the bilateral Agencies.
Commonwealth Business Forum Abuja
April 2005
Most significant is the approach of the African Union in collaboration
with NEPAD adopting its own consensus approach led by good
governance and peer revue and realistically calling for debt relief and
fair trade/aid. And having a strong tourism action plan emerging to
help boost this sector.
Here the Africa Commission will play an important role both because
of the creative leadership in its findings but also because of the ability
of its chairman Prime Minister Blair to influence consensus as
President of both the EU and the G8. The Commission positively
includes Tourism as one of the new Service opportunities for Africa.
In the process of multilateral soul-searching the UN is conducting its
own in depth review of its structure and this can only be a
constructive driver, despite current challenges for the Organization.
In the context of tourism, the position of the WTO-OMT – will give the
sector a positioning in the multilateral global system that it has not
previously enjoyed
The same can be said of the Commonwealth – which is focusing
attention on the sector, building bridges to other multilateral bodies,
particularly the WTO. And at this meeting considering setting up a
Commonwealth Tourism Centre to share experiences and help
promote more tourism between Commonwealth states as well as
from non-Commonwealth states.
The issue going forward is to grow both rich and poor but with a
massive emphasis on the smaller poorer states – particularly here in
Africa
Rightly the centre of global response to the millennium development
challenge.
Because Tourism is the one service sector export that all poor
countries have.
And they have it with comparative advantage for the new markets of
adventure and eco travel.
The importance of the interface with the private sector in meeting this
challenge cannot be overemphasised.
Unlike other areas tourism is delivered by business.
Commonwealth Business Forum Abuja
April 2005
Government must create a level playing field and the infrastructure –
physical and regulatory. The good investment incentives and the right
balance between security and facilitation.
But it’s business that brings the innovation, the capital & the tourists –
business & leisure travelers. To boost economies & development
This Forum should focus on that and take it’s ideas forward to the
Ministers to put into their own conclusions. The Commonwealth
uniquely provides for this input and you must not miss the opportunity
for the voice of business to be heard.
Commonwealth Business Forum Abuja
April 2005