SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
China CP
***Negative
Solvency: China’s Space Program = Awesome ................................................................. 2
Solvency: China’s Space Program = Awesome ................................................................. 3
Solvency: China’s Space Program = Awesome ................................................................. 4
Solvency: China’s Space Program = Awesome ................................................................. 5
Solvency: China’s Space Program = Awesome ................................................................. 6
Solvency: China’s Space Program = Awesome ................................................................. 7
Solvency: China’s Space Program = Awesome ................................................................. 8
Solvency: Affordability .................................................................................................... 10
Solvency: Affordability .................................................................................................... 11
Solvency: Satellite Program .............................................................................................. 12
Solvency: Space Debris .................................................................................................... 13
Solvency: Space Debris .................................................................................................... 14
Solvency: Moon Mission .................................................................................................. 15
Solvency: Going to Mars .................................................................................................. 16
Solvency: Going to Mars .................................................................................................. 17
Solvency: Going to Mars ...................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
Solvency: SETI ................................................................................................................. 18
Solvency: SETI ................................................................................................................. 19
Solvency: Asteroid Detection ........................................................................................... 20
Solvency: Asteroid Detection ........................................................................................... 21
Solvency: Helium-3 .......................................................................................................... 22
Solvency: Helium-3 .......................................................................................................... 23
Solvency: Helium-3 .......................................................................................................... 23
Solvency: Space Tourism ................................................................................................. 24
Solvency: Space Based Solar Power................................................................................. 25
Solvency: Space Based Solar Power................................................................................. 25
AT: Perm Do Both—Politics ............................................................................................ 26
AT: Perm Do Both—Coop Bad ........................................................................................ 27
AT: Perm Do Both—Coop Bad ........................................................................................ 28
AT: Perm Do Both—Politics ............................................................................................ 29
AT: Perm Do Both—China says no.................................................................................. 30
AT: Perm Do Both—China says no.................................................................................. 31
AT: Perm Do Both—Coop Bad ........................................................................................ 32
AFF: Perm Solvency ......................................................................................................... 33
***Affirmative Answers
AFF: Perm Solvency ......................................................................................................... 34
AFF: Perm Solvency ......................................................................................................... 36
AFF: China Militarization DA .......................................................................................... 37
AFF: China Militarization DA .......................................................................................... 38
AFF: China Militarization DA .......................................................................................... 39
AFF: No Solvency—Affordability ................................................................................... 40
AFF: No Solvency—Affordability ................................................................................... 41
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: China’s Space Program = Awesome
China has a developing space program
Huffington Post 11 (Louise Watt, Huffpost Technology journalist, “China’s Space Program Winds Up, Targets
Moon, Mars And Venus”, The Huffington Post, July 11, 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/07/11/chinasspace-program_n_894479.html) RS
BEIJING — This year, a rocket will carry a boxcar-sized module into orbit, the first building block for a Chinese space station.
Around 2013, China plans to launch a lunar probe that will set a rover loose on the moon. It wants to put a man on the moon,
sometime after 2020. While the United States is still working out its next move after the space shuttle program,
China is forging ahead. Some experts worry the U.S. could slip behind China in human spaceflight – the
realm of space science with the most prestige. "Space leadership is highly symbolic of national capabilities and
international influence, and a decline in space leadership will be seen as symbolic of a relative decline in U.S. power and influence,"
said Scott Pace, an associate NASA administrator in the George W. Bush administration. He was a supporter of Bush's plan – shelved
by President Barack Obama – to return Americans to the moon. China is still far behind the U.S. in space technology
and experience, but what it doesn't lack is a plan or financial resources. While U.S. programs can fall
victim to budgetary worries or a change of government, rapidly growing China appears to have no such
constraints. "One of the biggest advantages of their system is that they have five-year plans so they can develop well
ahead," said Peter Bond, consultant editor for Jane's Space Systems and Industry. "They are taking a step-by-step
approach, taking their time and gradually improving their capabilities. They are putting all the pieces
together for a very capable, advanced space industry."
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: China’s Space Program = Awesome
China’s space program is developing into a strong and extremely capable one.
Branigan 11 (4-26-11, Tania, The Guardian, “China unveils rival to International Space Station”,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/26/china-space-station-tiangong)
China laid out plans for its future in space yesterday, unveiling details of an ambitious new space station to
be built in orbit within a decade. The project, which one Nasa adviser describes as a "potent political
symbol", is the latest phase in China's rapidly developing space programme. It is less than a decade since
China put a human into orbit for the first time, and three years since its first spacewalk. The space station will
weigh around 60 tonnes and consist of a core module with two laboratory units for experiments, according to the state news agency,
Xinhua. Officials have asked the public to suggest names and symbols for the unit and for a cargo spacecraft that will serve it.
Professor Jiang Guohua, from the China Astronaut Research and Training Centre, said the facility would be designed to last for
around a decade and support three astronauts working on microgravity science, space radiation biology and astronomy. The
project heralds a shift in the balance of power among spacefaring nations. In June, the US space agency,
Nasa, will mothball its whole fleet of space shuttles, in a move that will leave only the Russians capable of
ferrying astronauts to and from the International Space Station. The $100bn (£60.5bn) outpost is itself due
to fly only until 2020, but may be granted a reprieve until 2028. Bernardo Patti, head of the space station
programme at the European Space Agency (Esa), said: "China is a big country. It is a powerful country,
and they are getting richer and richer. They want to establish themselves as key players in the international
arena. "They have decided politically that they want to be autonomous, and that is their call. They must
have had some political evaluation that suggests this option is better than the others, and I would think
autonomy is the key word." He added that China's plans would be "food for thought" for policymakers elsewhere. Esa and
other nations are already discussing a next-generation space station that would operate as a base from which to explore space beyond
low-Earth orbit; future missions could return astronauts to the moon, land them on asteroids, or venture further afield to Mars.
"Another country trying to build its own infrastructure in space is competition, and competition always pushes you to be better," Patti
said. The central module of the Chinese space station will be 18.1 metres (59.4ft) long, with a maximum diameter of 4.2 metres and a
launch weight of 20 to 22 tonnes. The laboratory modules will be shorter, at 14.4 metres, but will have the same diameter and launch
weight. Pang Zhihao, a researcher and deputy editor-in-chief of the magazine Space International, told Xinhua: "The 60-tonne space
station is rather small compared with the International Space Station [419 tonnes] and Russia's Mir space station [137 tonnes], which
served between 1986 and 2001. "But it is the world's third multi-module space station, which usually demands much more
complicated technology than a single-module space lab." China is also developing a cargo spaceship, which will weigh less than 13
tonnes and have a diameter of no more than 3.35 metres, to transport supplies and equipment to the space station . John Logsdon,
a Nasa adviser and former director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University, said
China's plans would give it homegrown expertise in human space flight. "China wants to say: 'We can do
everything in space that other major countries can do,'" he said. "A significant, and probably visible, orbital
outpost transiting over most of the world would be a potent political symbol."
China often chooses poetic names for its space projects, such as Chang'e – after the moon goddess – for its lunar probes; its rocket
series, however, is named Long March, in tribute to communist history. The space station project is currently referred to as Tiangong,
or "heavenly palace". But Wang Wenbao, director of the China Manned Space Engineering Office, told a news conference:
"Considering past achievements and the bright future, we feel the manned space programme should have a more vivid symbol, and
that the future space station should carry a resounding and encouraging name.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: China’s Space Program = Awesome
China’s space program is rapidly developing
Richburg 11 (1-22-11, Keith, The Washington Post, “Mistrust stalls US-China space cooperation”,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/21/AR2011012104480.html)
For now, the U.S.-China relationship in space appears to mirror the one on Earth - a still-dominant but fading superpower facing a
new and ambitious rival, with suspicion on both sides. "What you have are two major powers, both of whom use space for military,
civilian and commercial purposes," said Dean Cheng, a researcher with the Washington-based Heritage Foundation and an expert on
the Chinese military and space program. NASA's human spaceflight program has been in flux in recent years, fueling particular
concern among some U.S. observers about the challenge posed by China's initiatives in that area. There is "a lot of very wary, careful,
mutual watching," Cheng said. Song Xiaojun, a military expert and commentator on China's CCTV, said that substantial cooperation
in the space field is impossible without mutual trust. Achieving that, he said, "depends on whether the U.S. can put away its pride and
treat China as a partner to cooperate on equal terms. But I don't see that happening in the near future, since the U.S. is experiencing
menopause while China is going through puberty." But while China may still be an adolescent in terms of space
exploration - launching its first astronaut in 2003 - it has made some notable strides in recent months and
years, and plans seem on track for some major breakthroughs. On the day Hu left for his U.S. trip, Chinese
news media reported the inauguration of a new program to train astronauts - called taikonauts here - for
eventual deployment to the first Chinese space station, planned for 2015. As part of the project, two launches are
planned for this year, that of an unmanned space module, called Tiangong-1, or "Heavenly Palace," by summer, and later an
unmanned Shenzhou spacecraft that will attempt to dock with it. On a separate track, China is also working through
a
three-stage process for carrying out its first manned moon landing. The first stage was completed in
October with the successful launch of a Chang'e-2 lunar orbiter. In 2012 or 2013, an unmanned landing
craft is scheduled to take a rover to the moon to collect rock and soil samples. By 2020, according to the
plan, a taikonaut could land on the moon. Yet a third track is devoted to the development of a Chinese
global navigational system, called Beidou, or "Compass," to challenge the current supremacy of the
American global positioning system, or GPS. Beidou is scheduled to provide satellite navigation services to
the Asia-Pacific region next year and to be fully global by 2020. Chinese academics involved in the space program
said Beidou is crucial for China's military. Without its own navigational system, Chinese troops and naval vessels must rely almost
exclusively on the American GPS system, which could be manipulated or blocked in case of a conflict. The new system "can cover
the civilian and military sides," said Xu Shijie, a professor of astronautics at Beihang University in Beijing. "For the military side, it's
more urgent." Xu, who heads a space research team, acknowledged that even some Chinese might question the government's decision
to fund a costly space program at a time when there are other pressing concerns, such as developing the country's western provinces to
bring living standards and incomes there into line with those in the more prosperous east. But he called the space program
"a long-term investment," with the potential for beneficial spillover effects on the civilian economy. "The
government is concerned with social welfare issues," Xu said. "But a scientist is also trying to look 20 years
down the road." There is also the matter of prestige. As with other grandiose projects - high-speed rail, the world's biggest airport
in Beijing, staging the 2008 Olympics - China's Communist leaders view the space program as a way to show citizens that they can
produce successes, thus fostering patriotism and support for the party's continued rule. "National pride will increase," Xu said. "It's a
selling point used by leading scientists." As part of the effort to expand public awareness of and excitement about the space program,
the government broke ground in December for a 3,000-acre space-launch center and theme park on the southern island of Hainan,
modeled after the Kennedy Space Center in Florida. When the center opens in 2014, the public will be able to watch rocket launches
there from an elevated platform. The adjacent Hainan Space Park, meanwhile, will be divided into four sections, replicating the moon,
the sun, Mars and Earth. "We want to combine tourism with education," said Liu Xianbo, an official with China Aerospace
International Holdings, which is building the theme park. Hainan offers several advantages as a launch site, compared with China's
existing, secrecy-cloaked sites in sparsely populated areas of Shanxi province, Sichuan and the Gobi Desert. It is already a major
tourist destination. Its southern location, closer to the equator, maximizes the effects of Earth's rotation, boosting rocket thrust. And in
the event of a mishap, launches over water, rather than land, would make rescues easier. Hainan also has another advantage: Parts of
the island are already zoned for military use under the PLA's control. China's space program has a civilian component, under the
China National Space Administration, but it is run primarily by the military. That could make enhanced cooperation with the United
States difficult - and not just from the Chinese side. Last fall, when NASA administrator Charles F. Bolden Jr. visited China to
explore areas where the two countries could cooperate in space, two senior Republican members of Congress - Reps. Frank R. Wolf
(Va.) and John Abney Culberson (Tex.) - wrote to Bolden beforehand to protest, saying they had "serious concerns about the nature
and goals of China's space program" and warning that "China's intentions for its space program are questionable at best." Since
Republicans won control of the House in November's elections, Wolf now chairs the House Appropriations Committee's commerce,
justice and science subcommittee, which oversees NASA's budget, and Culberson is a senior subcommittee member.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: China’s Space Program = Awesome
China is taking the US’s place as a leader in space
Pace 11—Space Policy Institute Director at George Washington University (5-11-11, Scott, “China’s
Growing Space Capabilities: Implications for the United States”, US-China Economic and Security Review Commission,
http://www.gwu.edu/~spi/assets/docs/11_05_11_pace_testimony.pdf) RS
On balance,
Chinese civil space capabilities can be expected to increase in the future. China will be able to
undertake unilateral and international space projects of increasing complexity that will in turn increase
commercial, military, and diplomatic opportunities at times and places of China’s choosing. Today, U.S.
human space flight capabilities remain considerably ahead of China by all measures or experience, technology, industrial base, and
partnerships. Unfortunately, the continuation of the current balance is uncertain. The United States has failed to develop an
assured means for U.S. Government human access to space, the International Space Station is reliant on the Russian
Soyuz and unproven commercial providers with a consequent risk of loss of the Station should there be a major accident on-orbit, and
finally, the United States has failed to engage its existing international partners in a program of exploration beyond low Earth orbit.
Plans for a human return to the Moon are on hold and no other human exploration missions are in work. All
of these factors increase the odds that the United States will not be a global leader in human spaceflight
after the end of the International Space Station sometime in the next ten years or so.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: China’s Space Program = Awesome
China’s space program has ever-increasing capabilities
Branigan 10 (Tania, 9-20-10, The Guardian, “China Could Make Moon Landing in 2025”,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/sep/20/china-could-make-moon-landing-by-2025) RS
China could put an astronaut on the moon in 2025 and launch probes to explore Mars and Venus within
five years, according to the boss of a Chinese space programme.
Ye Peijian said China could make its first manned moon landing in 15 years, send a probe to Mars by 2013 and to Venus by 2015.
"China has the full capacity to accomplish Mars exploration by 2013," he added. The remarks, by the
commander in chief of the country's Chang'e lunar exploration project, were reported by the English language Global Times today and
underscore the ambition of China's plans. It was understood that Ye was speaking in his capacity as an academic at an aerospace
engineering forum at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, rather than unveiling official policy. It is seven years since China became
only the third country to put one of its citizens in space. Another astronaut, Zhai Zhigang, conducted its first spacewalk in 2008.
Yang Liwei, China's first spaceman, confirmed this weekend that the country planned to set up its first
orbital space station by around 2020, according to the People's Daily website. Visiting the space centre in Xi'an,
Yang said China would launch its first unmanned space laboratory, Tiangong-1, next year. It is expected to dock with the Shenzhou-8
craft in a first step towards building a space station.
"[The space programme] has been developing very quickly, but of course still lags far behind when compared with the US and Russia
because they have the most advanced technology," Professor Fu Song, vice-dean of Tsinghua University's School of
Aerospace in Beijing, told the Guardian.
He said of the proposed moon landing: "It is obviously a very difficult task, but I think in terms of
technology, China can do it – the US was technically able to do that almost half a century ago. So for China
now it is more about whether the government will make the decision to do it, or whether it is really
necessary for the country." He added: "The national pride part [of the programme] has always been one important reason, but
it is more than that as well. The scientific value of space exploration is [im]measurable … The moon is an unknown world to us and
there are a lot of things waiting to be explored." He said there could be energy resources still awaiting discovery, and that the moon
could help in the study of the state of the Earth and universe before the dawn of humanity. Barack Obama has been criticised for
dropping a plan to return Americans to the moon by 2020. Instead, the US president has announced an initiative aiming to see crewed
missions beyond the moon by 2025.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: China’s Space Program = Awesome
China’s space program is becoming more and more ambitious
Hayes 08 (Jeffrey, compiled from New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Times of London, National Geographic,
The New Yorker, Time, Newsweek, Reuters, AP, Lonely Planet Guides, Compton’s Encyclopedia and various books and other
publications, http://factsanddetails.com/china.php?itemid=385&catid=10&subcatid=67) RS
China has great ambitions in space. It has announced plans to establish a space station. It said it also hopes one day to set up
a base on the moon to mine helium-3, a potential energy source, and one day colonize other planets, although one official admitted to
Time that it will take “some 200 years to reconstruct Mars to make it sustainable to human life.” China is currently advancing
its manned space program in three steps: First, send astronauts into space and ensure their safe return;
second, develop a space laboratory; third, establish a permanent manned space station. China has expressed
interest in participating in the international space station but has been rejected. The Shenzhou is outfit with a docking ring that will
allow it to dock with the international space station. China plans to launch two unmanned space capsules---Tiangong 1 and Shenzhou
8, which are expected to accomplish the country's first space docking--- in 2011. the Tiangong-1 or Heavenly Palace— is a space
module. It weighs 8.5 tons and will operate for a long-period of unattended operation, an essential step to building a space station.
China plans to make a rudimentary space station by joining one Shenzhou capsule with another that it
hopes will be permanently manned. The manned Shenzhou IX and Shenzhou X spacecrafts are scheduled to be launched in
2012 to dock with Tiangong 1 and Shenzhou 8. A space laboratory is expected to be developed and launched before 2016.
Construction of a manned space station is to be completed around 2020 . China has plans for a mission to Mars. It and
Russia plan to launch a Mars probe in 2011, two years after it was originally scheduled to be launched. China plans to launch
a
Mars probe of its own in 2013. China is working with Russia on Mars exploration projects and developing a satellite with
France to study the sun. The United States has says that its open to the idea of cooperating with China in space, including joint moon
exploration.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: China’s Space Program = Awesome
China has recently made many important developments in space
Perrett 08 (1-6-08, Bradley, Aviation Week, “Qian Xuesen Laid Foundation for Space Rise in China”,
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=space&id=news/aw010708p1.xml&headline=null&next=0) RS
Nothing in aviation or space in 2007 represented a greater change in the status quo than China’s
ascendancy to the first rank of space powers. China had proven its mettle four years earlier by becoming only the third
member of the elite club of nations capable of flying humans in space. But in 2007, it accomplished two more feats,
proving to the world that it’s a space player to be reckoned with across the board. In January, China
destroyed one of its own spacecraft with a ground-launched missile, shattering the aging weather satellite.
Then in October, China launched its first planetary mission, sending a scientific probe to the Moon (see p.
59). The man who laid the foundation for these achievements is a brilliant scientist who worked for the
U.S. military on advanced rocket projects in the 1940s and helped found the Jet Propulsion Laboratory at
the California Institute of Technology. Then, in a remarkably short-sighted move, the U.S. sent this man back to China with
all his skills and knowledge of American secrets. With McCarthyism in full bloom, the scientist was deported on dubious charges of
being a Communist. That man is Qian Xuesen. And he became the father of the Chinese space program. (The
name, sometimes spelled Tsien Hsue-shen, is pronounced chien shu-eh sen.) The antisatellite (Asat) test demonstrated an ability—
based on advanced sensors, tracking and precise trajectory control technologies—which had previously belonged only to the U.S. and
Russia. The Asat’s warhead, launched by a ballistic missile, intercepted its satellite target nearly head-on, creating an extremely high
closing velocity that multiplied the challenges in this test and served to underscore the leap in Chinese technology. The test was
condemned worldwide as the largest instance of space pollution in history. Thousands of new pieces of debris, more than 900 of them
large enough (10 cm.) to be tracked by ground radars, were suddenly in orbit. They threaten low orbiting satellites of all nations,
including the International Space Station. The amount of space junk hurtling around the planet, accumulated in the 50 years since
Sputnik, had shot up by 10% in an instant. Worse, because the target satellite, at 860 km. (535 mi.), was fairly high, some fragments
will take at least a century to be slowed down and brought back to Earth by the few molecules of atmosphere at that level. China has
not explained why, even if it felt it had to conduct the test, it did not use a specially built low-mass target that might have been blasted
away at a lower altitude, leaving a smaller debris cloud of shorter duration. Soviet and U.S. Asat tests ended in the 1980s, when far
fewer satellites were in low orbit and the dangers of space junk correspondingly lower. While China’s space program began
2007 with a spectacular bang, it ended the year with a more peaceful, but still remarkable, achievement—
when the country became the first developing nation to launch a spacecraft into lunar orbit. T h e
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SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
p r o g r a m s
t o
d e v e l o p
s o m e
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1 9 6 5 . “He’s the father of our space industry,”
the head of China’s lunar program, Luan Enjie, once told U.S. journalist Michael Cabbage. “It’s difficult to say where we would be
without him.”
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: Affordability
China’s economy is more than sufficient for funding any space program.
Economic Strategy Insitute 11 (The Economic Strategy Institute (ESI) is a private, non-profit, non-partisan
public policy research organization dedicated to assuring that globalization works with market forces to achieve
maximum benefits rather than distorting markets, and imposing costs, “The Evolving Role of China in International
Institutions”, 1/11, pg. 4-6) RS
While a number of factors have contributed to China’s growing influence, the Global
Financial Crisis (GFC) warrants special attention, acting as an accelerant which deepened
and hastened an evolution that was already underway. Although the basic parameters of the GFC are
well known, a quick review of some of the key points will help illuminate the “hows and whys” of China’s strengthened
position within international institutions. The United States is emerging from the GFC in a
weakened economic condition, saddled with a debilitating level of debt, persistently high unemployment, and
Perhaps of equal if not greater importance is the reputational damage that has been done to
the philosophical pillars upon which the U.S. model of capitalism has been built: the primacy of the
anemic growth rates.
marketplace, a light government hand, free and open trade and investment policies, and a public and private
mentality of borrow and spend, borrow and spend, borrow and spend. China meanwhile, is emerging from
the GFC in a stronger relative economic position, having just overtaken Japan as the second largest
economy in the world.
While the United States and much of Europe were plunged into the steepest recession
in 80 years, China plowed through the crisis with hardly a dip in its remarkable rates of
growth.
Of potentially greater long--‐ term importance is the fact that the fallout from the GFC has,
especially in the eyes of many in the developing world, bolstered the credibility of China’s
economic development model, and fed a growing sense that while the 20th Century was the
American Century, the 21st Century might just be China’s. As the United States is wrestling with a
debt burden that will likely start imposing at least some limitations on spending and borrowing, China is sitting
on top of the largest foreign currency reserves in the world – and they are growing.1 China has
an increasing capacity (both financial and philosophical) to project itself onto the world stage.
Although still far behind that of the United States, Chinese military capacity – especially its desire to create a blue water
navy --‐ --‐ is steadily increasing. On the U.S. side, two lengthy wars have taken a heavy toll, and new
budgetary realities have forced Defense Department officials to focus more and more of their attention on where and
how to cut, rather than how to grow. China’s foreign currency reserves also puts in it in a position to
provide significant levels of development aid and assistance, and the size of its market,
along with a rapidly growing middle class, means that access to the Chinese market will be
increasingly important for the balance sheet of companies not just in Asia, but elsewhere in
the world as well.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: Affordability
China has a huge space budget
Hayes 08 (Jeffrey, compiled from New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Times of London, National
Geographic, The New Yorker, Time, Newsweek, Reuters, AP, Lonely Planet Guides, Compton’s Encyclopedia and various books and
other publications, http://factsanddetails.com/china.php?itemid=385&catid=10&subcatid=67) RS
NASA administrator Mike Griffin told the Washington Post, “The Chinese have a carefully thought-out
human space-flight program that will take them up to parity with the United States and Russia. They’re
investing to make China a strategic world power second to none—not so much to become a grand military
power, but because deals and advantages flow to world leaders.” Ouyang Ziyuan, a space expert at the
Chinese Academy of Sciences, told Newsweek, that China’s space program “suggests comprehensive
national strength” thereby “increasing China’s prestige and the cohesive power of the Chinese nation.”
China hopes its space program will help it locate resources on earth and assist in the development of more sophisticated military
technology and inventions the Chinese can patent. China’s space program is closely linked with the military and
has
its pick of China’s best scientists. China’s manned space program is run by the military and shrouded in
secrecy. According to the Chinese government the civilian space budget in 2007 was $500 million. The budget figures for the
program are secret but are probably over several billion dollars a year.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: Satellite Program
China’s satellite capabilities are increasing
Hayes 08 (Jeffrey, compiled from New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Times of London, National
Geographic, The New Yorker, Time, Newsweek, Reuters, AP, Lonely Planet Guides, Compton’s Encyclopedia and various books and
other publications, http://factsanddetails.com/china.php?itemid=385&catid=10&subcatid=67) RS
The first Chinese satellite, the 381-pound DFH-1 was launched from a three stage rocket into space on April 24, 1970. Once in orbit it
sent back broadcasts of "The East is Red." It carried so many Mao badges that scientists warned that too many might compromise the
mission. China launched its first communications satellite on April 8, 1984. It was placed in stationary orbit and
functioned for more than four years. Many satellites are launched from the Xichang launch center in southwestern Sichuan Province
using Long March 2C rockets. For some launches the government charges tourists $100 for access to two
viewing platforms. Many Chinese satellites have military applications or direct military uses. China hopes
to deploy a radar satellite in 2005 that keeps on eye on U.S. Navy ships off the coast of China even when it
is cloudy. China is setting up its own GPS system called Beidou. As of 2010 it was partly operation. A total of 25
satellites will be used in the system by 2020. Navigation satellites work by sending out a stream of data on its location and
time, which is measured by an atomic clock. The receiver notes the difference between the time the data was sent by the satellite and
the time it was received. Using this information it can calculate its own distance from the satellite, and then determine its own
location. Radio waves travel at 300,000 kilometers per second. An error of 0.000001 second in time results in an error of 300 meters
in distance. To accurately determine a location a locator needs to receive signals from at least four navigation satellites
simultaneously. China hopes to become a major player in the satellite launching business. Its low labor costs
allow it undercut its competitors in Europe and the United States by a large margin. China has launched several
U.S.-made satellites as well as remote sensing satellites it developed jointly with Brazil. As of 1999, it controlled 9 percent share of
the world launch services.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: Space Debris
China will start working on the space debris problem soon
Pace 11—Space Policy Institute Director at George Washington University (5-11-11, Scott, “China’s
Growing Space Capabilities: Implications for the United States”, US-China Economic and Security Review Commission,
http://www.gwu.edu/~spi/assets/docs/11_05_11_pace_testimony.pdf) RS
Given the reliance of United States on space systems, it is unsurprising that it seeks to reduce and mitigate the creation of orbital
debris. The 2007 Chinese ASAT test of course added greatly to the orbital debris population. This was a
regrettable action for many reasons, among which was that fact that China had earlier participated
constructively in technical discussions within the Science and Technology Subcommittee of the United
Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) that developed a consensus set of
orbital debris mitigation guidelines. Nonetheless, the United States continues to seek Chinese cooperation on reducing the
creation of orbital debris and routinely provides “conjunction warnings” to countries – including China – at risk from being struck by
debris. If China is successful in maintaining astronauts in orbit for extended periods of time, they might have
increased incentives to cooperation with ISS partners in reducing potential hazards to those astronauts
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: Space Debris
China has agreed to help remove space debris
MacDonald 08—former assistant director for national security at the White House Office of Science
and Technology Policy (9-08, Bruce, “China, Space Weapons, and US Security”, Council on Foreign Relations, pg. 5-6)
Space debris can collide with and destroy satellites and is an important element in thinking about space
weapons. Like radioactive fallout from nuclear war, debris from space war can linger for many years. While the word “debris”
sounds harmless based on common usage, most orbital debris moves at a speed of more than seventeen thousand miles per hour. Thus,
relatively small debris pieces are highly destructive to a satellite in a collision. One only has to imagine what life
would be like if thousands of bullets from World War II were still whizzing around to get some feel for the danger that debris growth
poses for the future of space. At present, twelve thousand detectable debris pieces that are ten centimeters or larger orbit the earth, as
well as millions of smaller pieces. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) estimates China’s 2007 ASAT test
alone increased orbital debris by 10 percent, and its fallout will take more than one hundred years to reenter the atmosphere. Despite
important international efforts to reduce it, the total quantity of space debris grew by 20 percent in 2007. All nations have a
compelling common interest in avoiding the massive increase in space debris that substantial ASAT
conflict would create. Many nations, including China, Russia, and the United States, have agreed to
nonbinding guidelines to minimize space debris, including by deliberate destruction. Perhaps technology will
allow removal of space debris in the future, but nothing is now on the horizon, and space clean-up would likely be very costly in any
event.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: Moon Mission
China has plenty of capabilities for reaching the moon
Pace 11—Space Policy Institute Director at George Washington University (5-11-11, Scott, “China’s
Growing Space Capabilities: Implications for the United States”, US-China Economic and Security Review Commission,
http://www.gwu.edu/~spi/assets/docs/11_05_11_pace_testimony.pdf) RS
China does not publicly have a formal program for sending humans to the Moon. However, the Chinese are
making progress toward acquiring the capabilities necessary to conduct such missions. For example, the
Chinese EVA suit derived from the Russian Orlan design has boots with heels – and other features for
walking on a surface as well as floating outside a spacecraft. While I was at NASA, we did a notional analysis of how
Chinese might be able to send a manned mission to the Moon. We concluded that they could use four Long March 5
vehicles, capable of lifting 25 metric tons each, to place a little under 15 metric tons on the lunar surface.
This is about the same mass as the U.S. lunar modules that were launched by a single Saturn V. Figure 2
shows the notional concept developed in 2008. As said earlier, it is not a question of whether China will have a full
range of manned space flight capabilities, but what the nation intends to do with those capabilities
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: Going to Mars
China can go to Mars by 2013.
Jones 10 (Morris, space analyst, writer and lecturer, “China Goes to Mars”, Space Daily, Oct 31 2010,
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/China_Goes_To_Mars_999.html) RS
China has made no secret of its plans to explore Mars, but we are getting a firmer indication of what to expect. Vague
statements in the Chinese media have suggested that China could launch a mission to Mars in 2013. This is an interesting suggestion
for a program that's still largely unknown to us. How does this add to our knowledge of China's Mars program? China's first planned
step to Mars is very well known. In 2011, the Yinghuo 1 orbiter will be launched to Mars in tandem with Russia's Phobos-Grunt
mission. We know a lot about Yinghuo 1 already, thanks to some fairly open publicity about the mission. Yinghuo 1 is a small orbiter,
which will enter a highly elliptical orbit around Mars. Its main role is to study the tenuous Martian atmosphere, and help to answer
one of the greatest mysteries surrounding the planet. Long ago, the atmosphere of Mars was much thicker, helping to produce almost
Earthlike conditions on the surface. Why did Mars change into the barren world of today, and why did most of the atmosphere
disappear? Roughly two years after Yinghuo 1 is launched, a new "launch window" will open between Earth and Mars, as the
position of the planets becomes favourable again. NASA plans to send an orbiter during this window, and it will also study the
Martian atmosphere. Could China be ready to fly again so soon? There are plenty of reasons to believe that China could
do it. Consider recent events. China has successfully carried out a long mission in deep space. The Chang'e
1 mission was China's first lunar orbiter. Launched in 2007, the spacecraft performed well in mapping the entire Moon.
China has followed this with the launch of Chang'e 2 just a few weeks ago. This spacecraft is essentially a copy of Chang'e 1, with
different instruments and some improvements to its sub-systems. Chang'e 2 is performing very well, and has navigated
successfully into a low lunar orbit. Chinese space engineers must feel pleased. They've developed a generic
spacecraft design and proven that it works well, on two flights out of two. China has also openly discussed the possibility of
sending Chang'e 2 beyond the Moon once its primary mission is complete. While the spacecraft will not be sent to Mars, it has been suggested that Chang'e 2 could be sent into
heliocentric orbit, to test communications and control at vast distances from Earth. This is another hint at what China is planning. This author suggests that the basic spacecraft bus
used for the Chang'e lunar orbiters could be modified for use as a Chinese Mars probe. The Chang'e bus, or main spacecraft body, is itself derived from a geostationary
communications satellite. Engineers love evolution, taking something that works and modifying it for other purposes. From Earth orbit, to the Moon, to Mars, is the steady path of
this robust spacecraft design.
A dedicated Mars mission would require further modifications to the design of the
spacecraft.
There would need to be changes to the antennas and telemetry systems used, to compensate for the greater distance. One of the changes in Chang'e 2 over its
predecessor is the use of a new, advanced radio system with different frequencies. Could this be a precursor of something designed to work at Mars?
Flying to the Moon is, technically speaking, a trip into deep space. But a flight all the way to Mars could expose a spacecraft to even more hazards. The spacecraft could probably
use some additional hardening of some of its key components, even if this is just placing extra cosmic ray shielding on the computer. Getting to Mars requires more energy than a
mission to the Moon. China used the Long March 3A for the first Chang'e launch, and then switched to the more powerful Long March 3C for the second. But even this rocket
would struggle to send a Chang'e-type probe to Mars. It's entirely possible, however, that the Long March 3B could do it. Despite its lower alphabetical rank, this rocket is more
powerful than the 3A or 3C, and draws much of its extra force from the use of four strap-on rocket boosters. If China really wanted a big boost, it could use the stretched variant of
this rocket, the Long March 3B/E. Right now, this is the most powerful booster in China's fleet. More powerful boosters will be available to China when the Long March 5 family
So, we
have a rocket that can reach Mars and a spacecraft design that can fly there. What else needs to be
addressed? China has a large stable of scientific instruments at its disposal. Some have been tested on the
Chang'e missions. Some are already going to Mars on board Yinghuo. A large Mars orbiter will need a high-resolution camera
of boosters makes its debut, but this is unlikely to happen before 2014. If China wants to fly to Mars in 2013, the well-tested Long March 3B will be the best choice.
(currently on Chang'e 2), spectrometers (Chang'e 1 and 2) and some particles and fields instruments (Yinghuo 1 and various Chinese scientific satellites). China just needs to pick
and choose.
Then there's the tracking and support. China has already demonstrated the ability to track and communicate with spacecraft at the Moon. Through its co-operation with the
European Space Agency, it has access to a global deep space network, and can also tap European experience in tracking planetary missions. Control and navigation of both
Chang'e missions was impressive. When all the recent progress in China's unmanned space program is considered,
Mars mission within three years does not sound farfetched .
mission goals and hardware.
the idea of launching an advanced
But China could elect to wait for another launch window, and refine some of its
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: Going to Mars
China is planning a Mars mission in the near future
Qian 03 (Wang, china.org.cn, “When will China Start Mars Exploration?”, 6-10-03)
Mars exploration programs in various countries are vigorously underway. As one of the powers in space technology, what should
China do? When will it start to realize its dream on Mars? According to a Beijing Youth Daily report, comparative
research between Earth and Mars on the subject of space environments has been listed as an important
research direction for concerned sci-tech departments in China. China is ready to strongly support domestic
scientists to carry out research on the atmosphere, ionosphere, and magnetosphere of Mars, laying a solid
foundation for China's future Mars space probe.
"The atmosphere of Mars may be closely connected with the mysterious soil erosion on the planet", said Liu Zhenxing, an
academician of the Space Science Application Research Center under the Chinese Academy of Sciences. It would be a good
start for China to swiftly carry out research on the atmosphere of Mars based on existing observation data
made by other countries. Actually, a Mars probe was in China's scientific vision in the mid-1990s, according to Liu. One of the
subjects of the National 863 Sci-tech Plan -- the Research Report on the Necessity and Feasibility of China's Mars Probe -- had
already conducted feasible research on a Mars probe. Later, China stopped the research for some reason. Many experts have predicted
that developed countries will launch a new round of "enclosure movements" on Mars in the next few centuries. If China misses the
opportunity, it will lose the qualification of sharing relative achievements on a Mars space probe in the future. Liu suggested that
China should accelerate pre-research on a Mars probe, especially on some key technology areas.
Meanwhile, the experience and expertise accumulated in the course of implementing the lunar probe
program would help China's exploration of Mars. China will then stand on the frontier of Mars research through active
international cooperation.
China can do Mars exploration
Matibag 2011 (Gino C, Reporter for Allvoices, China-Russia Mars exploration takes off in October, Allvoices,
http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/7769758-chinarussia-mars-exploration-takes-off-in-october)
Aiming to be at par with the United States and Russia in space exploration programme, the burgeoning
China has already conquered the moon and Mars is its next target. Xinhua news agency reported that
China and Russia will launch an exploration to Mars in October this year. The joint space exploration is China's
first probe to the Red Planet after two years' postponement. A scientist at the China Academy of Space Technology
said that Beijing plans to explore Mars as an independent country in 2013.
Earlier, it was reported that a Chinese probe will focus on the space environment of the planet with emphasis to the
water that appears to have been once ample in its surface.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: SETI
China already can participate in SETI
Popular Science 11 (a leading source of science and technology news, “Inside FAST, Soon to be the World’s Biggest and
Baddest Radio Telescope”, Popular Science, 6-24-11, http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2011-06/inside-fast-soon-be-worldsbiggest-and-baddest-radio-telescope) RS
Puerto Rico’s Arecibo Observatory will soon be the world’s largest radio telescope no more. After years of
planning, China has broken ground on the Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical radio Telescope (FAST), a
massive bowl-shaped radio signal collector that will be the world’s most sensitive when it opens for
business in 2016. FAST’s framework was China’s engineering contribution to the Square Kilometer Array (SKA), the
international initiative to build a radio telescope with a full square kilometer of telescope surface area. That project has moved ahead
and is now considering sites in South Africa and Australia where arrays of smaller distributed telescopes will be integrated into
massive radio collecting instrument. But Chinese engineers knew that a massive, singular reflector like FAST was feasible and in
2006 gave the project the green light, choosing a natural depression in Guizhou province in southern China as FAST's home. A new
paper now details the progress in FAST’s design since then, and it shows that while FAST is rooted in Arecibo’s successful design,
several engineering tweaks and the addition of a now-characteristic Chinese flourish--make it bigger and
more powerful--mean that FAST will be able to see three times further in to space than Arecibo, scanning
larger sections of the sky and processing all that data more quickly. How? Arecibo has a fixed spherical curvature,
so radio waves are focused into a line above the dish where more mirrors focus them to a single point that can be processed by
instruments. Because of the way this works, Arecibo can only really use 221 meters (725 feet) of its 305-meter (1,000-foot) dish at
any give time. But a similar setup for FAST’s 500 meter (1,640 feet) array would result in the overhanging mirrors weighing some
11,000 tons. So instead the dish itself will focus the radio signals, using a subset of the dish’s 4,400 triangular aluminum panels to
form a roughly 1,000-foot parabolic mirror--nearly the size of the entire Arecibo dish--within the larger bowl. This dish-within-a-dish
can be formed anywhere across the larger bowl, allowing FAST to examine more of the sky. Further, the receiver hanging above the
dish will be capable of collecting and studying signals from 19 sky regions simultaneously, compared to Arecibo’s seven. That makes
for one speedy, strong radio telescope, faster and stronger than any existing instrument on the planet. As such, it should yield the
sharpest radio observations of pulsars, supernovas, and other astronomical phenomena. Perhaps more interestingly, it will
also join SETI in the search for extraterrestrial life. FAST should be able to detect extraplanetary
transmissions at distances of greater than 1,000 light years.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: SETI
China is searching for extra-terrestrials now.
Platt 00 (Kevin, The Christian Science Monitor, “Wave of UFO Sightings Underscores China’s Scientific Search for ET”, 1-72000, http://www.rense.com/politics6/wave.htm) RS
Long isolated by great walls of xenophobia, China is curiously entering the new century by trying to build
bridges of communication with extraterrestrials. Amid a wave of UFO sightings and the rise of a generation bred on "Star
Wars" and "The X-Files," Chinese space scientists are mapping out plans to find and explore life beyond earth.
"China is planning to build a gigantic radio telescope that will search for signs of and signals from
extraterrestrial intelligence," says Zhao Fuyuan, an astronomer at the prestigious Chinese Academy of
Sciences. "The telescope will work like the SETI [US-based Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence]
program ... by tracking radio signals" from the cosmos, says Mr Zhao.
The academy has drawn up its own SETI plan and is awaiting funding to begin construction at a time when
citizens of other planets seem to have launched an invasion of the Middle Kingdom: Chinese newspapers and broadcasters, even the
normally staid, state-run Chinese Central TV, are stepping up reports of close encounters here with aliens. "As they become more
market-oriented, Chinese editors, like their American counterparts, are finding that aliens and UFO sightings sell newspapers," says a
Beijing-based diplomat who tracks the local press. Astronomer Zhao says that "Chinese people are becoming better educated and
have more leisure time to explore their own interests, and science is increasingly popularized in the press." "These two trends," he
adds, "are both boosting coverage of phenomena on the fringes of science like UFOs." Zhao says the Academy of Sciences recently
issued a circular authorizing all its members for the first time to talk to the press about UFOs. "The academy hopes that more media
reports about and growing interest in extraterrestrial life will convince the government to invest more money in the overall space
program," he says. China's creation of a SETI operation is only one step in an ambitious 21st-century plan to
explore the universe. "China's recent success in launching its first unmanned space capsule is catapulting the country toward
recognition as a major space power," says a Western official. "The Chinese think they can one day catch up to the US as one of the
world's top space powers," he adds. "Within the next two decades, China wants to build a reusable launcher like
the US space shuttle and help colonize the moon," says a Chinese space researcher who asked not to be
identified. Back on Earth, more and more urban Chinese are reporting sighting feidie, or flying dishes. The first videotape of a
purported UFO in Chinese airspace was recently aired on a news program in southwest China. If anyone here is uniquely situated to
handle China's first communication with an alien race, it is probably Sun Shili. Mr. Sun, who was once an official translator for
Chairman Mao Zedong and is now the head of the Chinese UFO Research Organization, says there were more than 3000 sightings of
unidentified flying objects across China in 1999.
Sun says he had his first brush with an alien back in 1969, when Mao sent him to work in the barren fields of impoverished Jiangxi
Province "to learn from the peasants." "While planting rice, I saw a glowing sphere flying oval-shaped orbits between the ground and
the sky, but at first I thought it must have been a Soviet spy ship," says Sun. It was only after Mao's death in 1976 ended China's
isolation that Sun began reading Western books on UFOs and realized he might have witnessed a craft from farther away than
Moscow or even Mars, he says. Sun says membership in his UFO group has skyrocketed to 40,000 Chinese in the
last five years, and adds the organization includes professors, students, engineers, and even Communist
Party officials. While he concedes his UFO group still has no solid evidence of a single contact with extraterrestrial life, Sun says
he has a gut feeling that "aliens are living among us disguised as humans." Astronomer Zhao says he is much more skeptical about the
recent rash of UFO sightings. "Most of the people who thought they witnessed a UFO probably saw the reflection of airplane fuel
traces reflected in the sunlight or an atmospheric mirage," Zhao explains. "The universe contains so many stars that it's hard to believe
life arose only in the solar system," says Zhao. But adds the immense size of the cosmos also makes the possibility remote that aliens
have ever touched down in China.
Yet he adds that "Chinese history dating back to the Shang Dynasty [in 2000 BC], when records were carved onto tortoise shells ...
[includes] accounts of what could be UFO sightings."
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: Asteroid Detection
China can detect asteroids
Stone 08 (Richard, Science journalist specializing in asteroids, “Near-Earth Objects: Preparing for Doomsday”, Signs of the Time,
3-7-08, http://www.fr.sott.net/articles/show/150527-NEAR-EARTH-OBJECTS-Preparing-for-Doomsday) RS
TIESHAN TEMPLE NATIONAL FOREST, CHINA--In the control room of XuYi Observatory, Zhao Haibin sits at a computer and loads the night sky over Jiangsu Province. A
faint white dot streaks across a backdrop of pulsating stars. "That's a satellite," Zhao says. Elsewhere on the screen, a larger white dot lumbers from east to west. It's a main-belt
asteroid, circling the sun between Mars and Jupiter. On a ridge in this quiet, dark corner of southeastern China, about 100 kilometers northwest of Nanjing, XuYi's new 1-meter
since China's first telescope dedicated to asteroid
detection saw first light early last year, Zhao's team has discovered more than 300 asteroids, including a
near-Earth object (NEO), the class of asteroids and comets that could smash into our planet, if fate would
have it. China's asteroid hunters are the latest participants in a painstaking global effort to catalog NEOs. Close encounters with asteroids in recent years--and comet
telescope espies a few dozen asteroids on a good night. Most are known to science. But
Shoemaker-Levy's spectacular death plunge into Jupiter in 1994--have spurred efforts to find the riskiest NEOs before they blindside us. Tracking potentially hazardous objects-NEOs passing within 0.05 astronomical units, or 7.5 million kilometers, of Earth's orbit--is essential for any attempt to deflect an incoming rock. The first test of our planet's
defenses could be Apophis, an asteroid the size of a sports arena that made the world sweat for a few days in December 2004, when calculations suggested as great as a 1 in 37
chance of an impact in 2029. Although further data ruled out that day of reckoning, another could be looming. In April 2029, Apophis will pass a mere 36,350 kilometers from
Earth, inside the orbits of geostationary satellites. If it enters a keyhole--a corridor of space barely wider than the asteroid itself where gravitational forces would give it a tug--it
will end up on a trajectory that would assure a collision 7 years later: on 13 April 2036, Easter Sunday. The odds of Apophis threading the needle are currently 1 in 45,000--but
dozens of factors influence asteroid orbits. Researchers will get a better look during Apophis's next appearance in our neighborhood in 2012. By then, a powerful new telescope
for detecting asteroids and comets--the Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS), expected to be up and running by summer--should have
unmasked thousands more NEOs. An even grander project, the 8.4-meter Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), is expected to be operational in 2014. The anticipated bumper
crop of NEOs confronts society with urgent questions. In the next several years, with increasing rapidity, Pan-STARRS and its ilk will discover potentially dangerous NEOs.
Currently, 168 NEOs have a chance of striking Earth in the next century, although the odds are minuscule. By 2018, the risky rock roster could swell more than 100-fold.
Additional observations will allow astronomers to refine orbits, and in most cases, rule out a threat. For that reason, astronomers are debating when the public should be alerted to
hazards, to minimize false alarms. Eventually, an asteroid with our name on it will come into focus, forcing an unprecedented decision: whether to risk an interdiction effort. "The
very concept of being able to slightly alter the workings of the cosmos to enhance the survival of life on Earth is staggeringly bold," says Russell Schweickart, chair of the B612
Foundation, a Sonoma, California, nonprofit that lobbies for NEO deflection strategies. We have the means to deflect an asteroid--indeed, "it's really the only natural hazard that
we can possibly prevent," says NEO specialist David Morrison, an astrobiologist at NASA's Ames Research Center in Mountain View, California. There is one "fatal missing
element," says Schweickart, who in 1969 piloted the lunar module for the Apollo 9 mission: "There is no agency in the world charged with protecting the Earth against NEO
impacts." He and others hope to change that Wake-up calls Like any natural disaster, impacts occur periodically; gargantuan impacts are so rare that their frequency is hard to
fathom. Every 100 million years or so, an asteroid or a comet a few kilometers or more in width--a titan like the rock thought to have wiped out the dinosaurs 65 million years ago-smacks Earth. "This is not just getting hit and killed," says Edward Lu, a former astronaut who now works for Google. "You're on the other side of the Earth and the atmosphere
turns 500° hotter. Lights out." Reassuringly, no doomsday asteroid identified thus far is on track to intersect Earth's orbit in the next century. Less reassuring, an unobserved, longperiod comet from the Oort cloud could swoop in with little warning.
Although the odds of this happening in anyone's lifetime are on the order of winning the Powerball lottery, a megaimpact's annualized fatality rate is likely to rival those of
earthquakes or tsunamis, says Clark Chapman, an astronomer at the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colorado. Near-Earth asteroids tens to hundreds of meters in
diameter are far more numerous-- there may be as many as 3 million in the solar system--and they cross Earth's path more frequently. The iconic Meteor Crater in northern Arizona
was gouged by a 50-meter-wide hunk of iron and nickel 50,000 years ago. In 1908, a fireball scorched and flattened trees over 2100 square kilometers of taiga in Siberia's
Tunguska region--the devastating footprint, many experts say, of a modest asteroid that exploded in midair.
Recent supercomputer modeling has downsized the Tunguska rock. An asteroid just a few dozen meters wide, fragmenting explosively with a yield of 3 to 5 megatons--a fraction
of earlier estimates--could have done the trick, Mark Boslough and David Crawford of Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque, New Mexico, report in an article in press in
the International Journal of Impact Engineering. If this is correct, the expected frequency of Tunguska-sized impacts changes from once every couple of millennia to once every
couple of centuries. "Smaller objects may do more damage than we used to think," says Chapman. Today the impact threat may seem obvious, but for decades it was largely
ignored. Aerodynamicist Anatoly Zaitsev, director general of the Planetary Defense Center in Moscow, sounded the alarm in a landmark report delivered to Soviet leaders in 1986.
"They just laughed," he says. Then on 22 March 1989, an asteroid several hundred meters across whizzed by Earth at about twice the distance to the moon; astronomers didn't spot
Asclepius until it had already passed. Asclepius was a shot across the bow, prompting the U.S. Congress to query NASA about whether the agency had a plan for the next killer
asteroid. A parade of committees followed, after which Congress in 1998 ordered NASA to tally and track at least 90% of NEOs that are more than 1 kilometer wide. NASA
launched the Spaceguard Survey, named after a survey in Arthur C. Clarke's 1972 novel Rendezvous with Rama. To date, Spaceguard and other efforts have identified more than
700 of an estimated 1000 or so NEOs in this category. Then in 2005, Congress called on NASA to expand the search by 2020 to cover 90% of NEOs at least 140 meters in
diameter--the approximate minimum size to damage an area at least as large as a state or seaboard. NASA expects Spaceguard II to spot 21,000 potentially hazardous NEOs and
forecasts a 1-in-100 chance that such a rock will hit Earth in the next 50 years. The uncertainties are huge. Main-belt asteroids can knock into each other, turning a benign rock
into a malignant projectile. And with only a fraction of NEOs having been identified so far, what we don't know can hurt us. Astronomer Brian Marsden, director emeritus of the
International Astronomical Union's Minor Planet Center, the clearinghouse for asteroid and comet orbits, figuratively sums up the situation: "The ones to worry about are those that
were discovered yesterday and have a very high probability of hitting us the day after tomorrow. Those, plus the ones we've never even seen yet!" Drawing a bead Night has
fallen on an early December evening near Tieshan Temple, which, according to local lore, was the home of China's first monk. The sky above the national forest is pitch-black but
overcast. On nights like this, asteroid hunters know how to kill time. In a chilly, cigarette smoke-filled lounge down the hall from XuYi's control room, Zhao and his colleagues
play cards and sip from tall, clear plastic bottles packed with green tea leaves, hoping that the weather forecast is wrong and the skies will clear.
Zhao has worked at Purple Mountain Observatory, which operates XuYi, since graduating from Nanjing
University in 1996. He has a comet named after him, but his biggest thrill came last spring, when he found
an NEO. On most nights, the telescope is pointed away from the sun, toward main-belt asteroids outside
Earth's orbit. More elusive objects between Earth and the sun can be discerned in the right conditions. With
a clear sky and a new moon, just after nightfall or before sunrise, Zhao aims the telescope at a 60° angle to
the sun, where faint NEOs, like a crescent or gibbous moon, reflect sunlight in phases. During the
telescope's first year, his team got fewer than a dozen opportunities to gaze sunward. One was 7 May, when
they scored their NEO.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: Asteroid Detection
China cares about asteroids because it is at high risk for asteroid attack.
Shiga 07 (3-27-07, David, New Scientist, “Shina and US at High Risk of Damage from Asteroids”,
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11467-china-and-us-at-highest-risk-of-damage-from-asteroids.html) RS
China and the US are the countries most vulnerable to damage from future asteroid impacts, according to
preliminary new research. Sweden also ranks surprisingly high in this first attempt at quantifying the risks of impact effects,
such as tsunamis, on individual nations. Scientists have been able to simulate the propagation of tsunamis, earthquakes, and debris
from virtual asteroid impacts for years. But previously, there has been no software to quantify the human toll on particular countries.
Now, researchers have combined impact effects with data on population density and infrastructure location
in a computer model to produce the first global ranking of countries based on their vulnerability to impact
damage. Nick Bailey of the University of Southampton, UK, led the development of the new software. The team used the model to
simulate thousands of impacts at points all over the Earth, building up statistics on which countries tended to be the worst affected the
most often. They considered a range of impact energies corresponding to asteroids between 100 and 500 metres across, striking with
typical solar system speeds of about 20 kilometres per second. The team focused on smaller asteroids because they hit the Earth more
frequently. An asteroid a few hundred metres across hits the planet about once every 10,000 years, on average, while those larger than
1 kilometre hit only every 100,000 years or so. Small asteroids are also harder to spot. "We're more likely to be hit by one without
much warning," Bailey told New Scientist. Using maps of population density, the researchers charted the places likely to suffer the
most casualties. As might be expected, countries with large coastal populations turned out to be most
vulnerable, with China, Indonesia, India, Japan and the US in the top five spots. Determining the economic
damage to different countries was more difficult. The researchers made this part of their assessment based on estimates of the amount
of infrastructure located in different parts of the world.
Using images of the Earth from space showing the distribution of light from artificial sources, they assumed the brighter places were
more built up. Then they simulated the propagation of tsunamis, earthquakes and debris from a wide variety of impact locations to
rank countries on the vulnerability of their infrastructure. The US faced the worst potential losses, perhaps not surprisingly, since it
has a lot of infrastructure on coastlines facing two different oceans. China was second, followed by Sweden, Canada, and Japan.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: Helium-3
China plans to mine for Helium-3
Kazan 07 (Casey, “China’s New Moon Mission Blast Off—Is Mining Helium-3 the Ultimate Goal?”, The Daily Galaxy, 10-25-07,
http://www.dailygalaxy.com/my_weblog/2007/10/chinas-new-moon.html) RS
A daunting new mission to the Moon was launched Tuesday by the Chinese National Space Administration
(CNSA). Chang’e-1 blasted off from the Xichang Satellite Launch Centre, Sichuan, atop a Long March 3A
rocket -the first step in the Chinese ambition to land robotic explorers on the Moon before 2020. Chang’e-1
has four year-long mission goals to accomplish. The first is to make three-dimensional images of many lunar landforms and outline
maps of major lunar geological structures. This mapping will include the first detailed images taken of some regions near the lunar
poles.Chang’e-1 is also designed to analyze the abundance of up to 14 chemical elements and their distribution across the lunar
surface. Thirdly it will measure the depth of the lunar soil and lastly it will explore the space weather between the Earth and the Moon.
To perform its science mission, Chang’e-1 carries a variety of instruments: a CCD stereo camera, a laser
altimeter, an imaging interferometer, a gamma-ray/X-ray spectrometer, a microwave radiometer, a highenergy particle detector, and a solar wind particle detector. Chang’e-1, named after the Chinese goddess of the Moon,
represents the first phase in the Chinese Lunar Exploration Programme (CLEP). This programme is expected to last until around 2020
and the next phase will include a lander and associated rover. Looking farther into the future, plans are being drawn up for a sample
return mission to bring lunar rocks to Earth for analysis. Earlier this year, shortly after Russia claimed a vast portion of the Arctic sea
floor, accelerating an international race for the natural resources as global warming opens polar access, China has announced plans to
map "every inch" of the surface of the Moon and exploit the vast quantities of Helium-3 thought to lie buried in lunar rocks as part of
its ambitious space-exploration program. Ouyang Ziyuan, head of the first phase of lunar exploration, was quoted
on government-sanctioned news site ChinaNews.com describing plans to collect three dimensional images
of the Moon for future mining of Helium 3: "There are altogether 15 tons of helium-3 on Earth, while on
the Moon, the total amount of Helium-3 can reach one to five million tons." "Helium-3 is considered as a longterm, stable, safe, clean and cheap material for human beings to get nuclear energy through controllable nuclear fusion experiments,"
Ziyuan added. "If we human beings can finally use such energy material to generate electricity, then China might need 10 tons of
helium-3 every year and in the world, about 100 tons of helium-3 will be needed every year." Helium 3 fusion energy - classic Buck
Rogers propulsion system- may be the key to future space exploration and settlement, requiring less radioactive shielding, lightening
the load. Scientists estimate there are about one million tons of helium 3 on the moon, enough to power the world for thousands of
years. The equivalent of a single space shuttle load or roughly 25 tons could supply the entire United States' energy needs for a year.
Thermonuclear reactors capable of processing Helium-3 would have to be built, along with major transport
system to get various equipment to the Moon to process huge amounts of lunar soil and get the minerals
back to Earth. With China's announcement, a new Moon-focused Space Race seems locked in place. China made its first steps in
space just a few years ago, and is in the process of establishing a lunar base by 2024. NASA is currently working on a new space
vehicle, Orion, which is destined to fly the U.S. astronauts to the moon in 13 years, to deploy a permanent base. Russia, the first to
put a probe on the moon, plans to deploy a lunar base in 2015. A new, reusable spacecraft, called Kliper, has been earmarked for lunar
flights, with the International Space Station being an essential galactic pit stop.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: Helium-3
China wants to mine Helium-3
Hayes 08 (Jeffrey, compiled from New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Times of London, National
Geographic, The New Yorker, Time, Newsweek, Reuters, AP, Lonely Planet Guides, Compton’s Encyclopedia and various books and
other publications, http://factsanddetails.com/china.php?itemid=385&catid=10&subcatid=67) RS
The Chinese were inspired U.S. President Kennedy’s goal to send a man to the moon and are well versed
with the Apollo program. The launch of the moon probe came a month after Japan launched its own lunar probe and was seen
as escalation of Asia’s undeclared space race which also includes India which plans to launch a lunar probe in April 2008. China
opened a lunar exploration center in 2005. It has a plan of launching three unmanned missions to the moon:
a lunar orbiter, launched in 2007, a lunar probe on the surface of the moon and rover that can collect samples and bring them back to
earth. The rover mission is slated for 2012. A devise designed to bring back soil samples back to earth is scheduled for 2017. A moon
walk is scheduled in 2024. On the plan to build a moon base and extract lunar minerals one official said. “Our
long-term goal is to set up a base on the moon and mine its riches for the benefit of humanity.” One of the
aims of China’s lunar missions is to explore the possibility of mining helium 3, a nonradioactive isotope
that could be used to produce abundant energy through nuclear fusion. Lunar soil contains over 1 million tons of
helium 3, which is emitted by the sun in solar wind and is deflected from the earth by its magnetic field but is absorbed by the lunar
surface because the moon has no magnetic field. By one estimate 40 tons of helium 3 would be enough to meet the electrical needs of
the United States for one year. The technology for such a practical fusion and lunar mining are still decades away.
Solvency: Helium-3
China sends robots to the moon within two years
Nguyen 5-10 (Tuan C., “China to launch lunar rover, mine moon for nuclear fuel”, editor of Smartplanet.com, 2011,
http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/thinking-tech/china-to-launch-lunar-rover-mine-moon-for-nuclear-fuel/7158)
A top Chinese official has confirmed that the world’s most populous nation plans to send robots to the
moon. Ziyuan Ouyang, chief scientist of the Chinese lunar exploration program, made the announcement
at the IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA), held in Shanghai. The missions,
scheduled for launch in 2013 and 2017, will serve as a tune up for a more challenging goal: putting a man
on the moon by 2025. “But why?” you ask. Well, beyond obvious bragging rights, the China National Space
Administration’s ambitious foray into lunar exploration is part of a grander scheme to exploit the moon’s
vast iron reserves and its abundance of Helium-3, a rare but heavily sought-after fuel for nuclear fusion plants. This
elaborate operation to mine the moon for these coveted natural resources was set in motion back in 2007
when the agency launched into space its first lunar orbiter Chang’e-1 (named after the moon goddess of
Chinese folklore) to scan the landscape and produce a detailed 3-D map of the moon’s surface. This was
followed in 2010 by the successful launch of another probe, Chang’e-2, which was equipped with a higherresolution camera and orbited at an even closer distance of 100 kilometers. The data is being used to
pinpoint an ideal landing spot for a rover. Ouyang says it’s been decided that Chang’e-3’s spacecraft, which includes an
unmanned lunar lander and autonomous lunar rover, will be sent to explore the Sinus Iridium region. Equipped with a solar-powered
battery, sensors, cameras, x-ray and infrared spectrometers, as well as a radar, the robots will navigate and explore the terrain. The
rover will be the first to launch, while the lander will be sent later to drill, conduct experiments and collect samples. But if past
interplanetary unmanned missions are any indication, China’s engineers have their work cut out for them. IEEE Spectrum, which
hosted the event, explains in detail the kinds of challenges the researchers are facing: “One of the (many) tricky parts of operating on
the moon is designing a rover that can stay alive during the lunar night, which is a half-month long, making solar power an
impracticality. To help keep itself alive, the Chinese rover will have a supplementary nuclear battery powered by plutonium 238,
which will give the rover a lifespan of 30 years, although its mission life will be only three months. This is the same type of
radioisotope thermoelectric generator system (RTG) being used on the Mars Science Laboratory rover, Curiosity. And when it comes
to colonizing the moon, other nations have their own ideas, too. Japan hopes to have a moon base by 2030. India is thinking the same
thing. Russia and the European Space Agency are targeting an earlier date: 2025. In the U.S., however, the timeline for a return to the
moon is up in the air now that NASA’s Constellation Program has since been canceled due to budget constraints.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: Space Tourism
China can do Space Tourism within 10 years.
Global Times 11 (“Space Travel for Chinese in 10 years”, Global Times, 4-12-11, http://life.globaltimes.cn/travel/201104/643654.html) RS
Space travel for Chinese tourists in the near future is not just a dream. Eric Anderson, chairman of Space
Adventures, the only company currently providing opportunities for actual private spaceflight and space
tourism, said Monday at the annual opening ceremony and 60th anniversary celebration of Pacific Asia Travel Association
(PATA) that hopefully they will send Chinese into space within 10 years, citing information from Xinhua
News Agency. According to Anderson, a two-week space trip currently costs $50 million, making it a
privilege only for rich people. "We are designing some itineraries which may only last a couple of minutes
and which will be at a much lower cost of $100.000-200.000. And we may also offer free space travel for
ordinary people through a lucky draw", he said. He said that many Chinese have contacted his firm and inquired about
space travel. "We hope to send Chinese into space in 10 years' time," he said.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
Solvency: Space Based Solar Power
China can create space based solar power
Ji, Xinbin, and Li 10 (Gao, Hu, and Wang, engineer, deputy director, and director of Deep Space Exploration and Space
Science Technology Research Division at the China Academy of Space Technology, “Solar Power Satellites Research in China”,
Online Journal of Space Communication, Winter 2010 ((issue 16)), http://spacejournal.ohio.edu/issue16/ji.html) RS
China's first SPS research started in the late 20th century. In the new millennium, when the energy issue became a
constraint on sustainable development in China, the China Academy of Space Technology submitted to
the
government a "Necessity and Feasibility Study Report of SPS." Later, an SPS concept design was
activated, approved and funded by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) . CAST's
present SPS system oriented study is the first to address its key components, and to define a baseline or reference system that will
allow a relatively accurate determination of mass and cost in China. The CAST SPS research team conceives that there
are four imperative sections for SPS development: launching approach, in-orbit construction/multi-agents,
high efficiency solar conversion and wireless transmission. Except for launch, the other aspects do not
seem to be insurmountable issues for China in the upcoming years. Based on China's SPS scenario, there are 5 steps
to achieving the first commercial SPS system. In 2010, CAST will finish the concept design; in 2020, we will finish the industrial
level testing of in-orbit construction and wireless transmissions. In 2025, we will complete the first 100kW SPS demonstration at
LEO; and in 2035, the 100mW SPS will have electric generating capacity. Finally in 2050, the first commercial level SPS system will
be in operation at GEO.
Solvency: Space Based Solar Power
China is interested in developing SBSP
Fan et al 11--(William, “Industry and Technology Assesment: Space Based Solar Power”, 6-2-11)
The development of infrastructure and the deployment costs will require a large
amount of funding. Space based solar power is high risk and there is no guarantee that
there will be acceptable returns. Because of the long development cycle, investors will not receive any returns until several
decades later. Therefore, investment groups/ venture
capitalists are unlikely to fund space based solar power. The company will need to be
assisted by the government investment. Currently organizations such as NASA,
the Japan
Space Agency, and the Chinese government all appear to have interest in developing
space based solar power. The business will have to continue to run on government grants
until it can launch a satellite for niche markets. After this point, the business will start
receiving income and there will be greater confidence to invest into space based solar
power technology.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
AT: Perm Do Both—Politics
US-Sino space cooperation causes political ramifications
O’Neill 11 (5-10-11, Ian, Discovery News, “NASA banned from Working with China”, http://news.discovery.com/space/deniednasa-banned-from-working-with-china-110510.html) RS
To push mankind deeper and deeper into space, more expensive and ambitious missions are needed. Therefore, international
collaboration is sought after to share the load. For NASA, however, China won't be a part of any joint scientific
endeavor for the next fiscal year, at least. As noted by Forbes blogger William Pentland last week, and reported by the American
Association for the Advancement of Science's (AAAS) Science Insider blog in April, a clause included in the U.S. spending
bill approved by Congress to avert a government shutdown a few weeks ago has prohibited NASA from
coordinating any joint scientific activity with China. The clause also extends to the White House Office of
Science and Technology Policy (OSTP). The short two sentence clause was included by Rep. Frank Wolf
(R-VA) to prevent NASA and OSTP from using federal funds "to develop, design, plan, promulgate,
implement or execute a bilateral policy, program, order, or contract of any kind to participate, collaborate,
or coordinate bilaterally in any way with China or any Chinese-owned company." This clause would also prevent
NASA facilities from hosting "official Chinese visitors." Wolf, a long-time critic of the Chinese government, chairs a House spending
committee that oversees several science agencies. This clause comes at a time of heightened tensions surrounding accusations of
cyber-attacks and espionage from the People's Republic of China on U.S. Government agencies and U.S. companies. Wolf's office
computers were hacked in 2006 and the FBI confirmed the hacking source was located in China, so he has personal experience of this
vulnerability.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
AT: Perm Do Both—Coop Bad
Cooperation with China is risky
Pace 11—Space Policy Institute Director at George Washington University (5-11-11, Scott, “China’s
Growing Space Capabilities: Implications for the United States”, US-China Economic and Security Review Commission,
http://www.gwu.edu/~spi/assets/docs/11_05_11_pace_testimony.pdf) RS
The question of cooperation with NASA may be moot for the moment due to Congressional language
barring bilateral cooperation with China in the House 2011 continuing resolutions appropriations bill:
SEC. 1340.
(a) None of
the funds made available by this division may be used for the National Aeronautics
and Space Administration or the Office of Science and Technology Policy to develop, design,
plan, promulgate, implement, or execute a bilateral policy, program, order, or contract of any
kind to participate, collaborate, or coordinate bilaterally in any way with China or any
Chinese-owned company unless such activities are specifically authorized by a law enacted after
the date of enactment of this division.
Even if this language were not in place, I would not recommend engaging with China on human space
flight cooperation. The technical and political challenges are just too great – as are the political risks of not
meeting raised expectations. However, I do believe that scientific space cooperation with China could be mutually beneficial
and reciprocal while improving our understanding of Chinese decision-making and intentions.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
AT: Perm Do Both—Coop Bad
US-China space cooperation has more costs than benefits
Cheng 09-- Research Fellow in Chinese Political and Security Affairs in the Asian Studies Center at
The Heritage Foundation (Dean, “US-China Space Cooperation: More Costs than Benefits”, 10-30-09,
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2009/10/us-china-space-cooperation-more-costs-than-benefits)
With the delivery of the full report from the U.S. Human Space Flight Review Committee (commonly
referred to as the Augustine Report), the potential for a substantial, multi-year gap in U.S. manned
spaceflight capability has drawn increased attention. In light of this problem, the idea has been raised in
some quarters, including in the report, that the United States should expand its cooperation with the
People's Republic of China (PRC) and leverage Chinese space capabilities. Such cooperation has far more
potential cost than benefit.Very Real Problems The idea of relying on Chinese cooperation glosses over very
real problems. At a minimum, it is an open question whether the PRC is capable of providing substantial support to the
International Space Station (ISS) in the timeframes discussed by the report. It is important to recall that the PRC has had only three
manned missions and has never undertaken a manned docking maneuver. Would the U.S. and its partners be comfortable
inviting a neophyte Chinese crew to dock with the ISS? Beyond the technical issues, however, there are
more fundamental political concerns that must be addressed. The U.S. military depends on space as a
strategic high ground. Space technology is also dual-use in nature: Almost any technology or information
that is exchanged in a cooperative venture is likely to have military utility. Sharing such information with
China, therefore, would undercut American tactical and technological military advantages. Moreover,
Beijing is likely to extract a price in exchange for such cooperation. The Chinese leadership has placed a consistent
emphasis on developing its space capabilities indigenously. Not only does this ensure that China's space capabilities are not held
hostage to foreign pressure, but it also fosters domestic economic development -- thereby promoting innovation within China's
scientific and technological communities -- and underscores the political legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party.
Consequently, the PRC will require that any cooperation with the U.S. provides it with substantial benefits
that would balance opportunity costs in these areas.
What's the Point? So what would be the purpose of cooperation from the Chinese perspective? To sustain the ISS? China is hardly
likely to be interested in joining the ISS just in time to turn out the lights. There is also the question of whether the other partners in
the international station, such as Russia and Japan, are necessarily interested in including China, especially now that the most
expensive work has already been completed.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
AT: Perm Do Both—Politics
Domestic politics makes cooperation with China unlikely
Reuters 11 (1-3-11, “US-China Space Cooperation Fades”, http://www.royalsociety.org.nz/2011/01/03/china-usa-space-2/) RS
The prospects for cooperation between the United States and China in space are fading even as proponents
say working together in the heavens could help build bridges in often-testy relations on Earth. The idea of
joint ventures in space, including spacewalks, explorations and symbolic “feel good” projects, have been floated from time to time by
leaders on both sides. Efforts have gone nowhere over the past decade, swamped by economic, diplomatic and
security tensions, despite a 2009 attempt by President Barack Obama and his Chinese counterpart, Hu
Jintao, to kick-start the bureaucracies. US domestic politics make the issue unlikely to advance when Obama hosts Hu at
the White House on Jan. 19. Washington is at odds with Beijing over its currency policies and huge trade surplus but needs China’s
help to deter North Korea and Iran’s nuclear ambitions and advance global climate and trade talks, among other matters. Hu’s state
visit will highlight the importance of expanding cooperation on “bilateral, regional and global issues,” the White House said. But
space appears to be a frontier too far for now, partly due to US fears of an inadvertent technology transfer.
China may no longer be much interested in any event, reckoning it does not need US expertise for its space
program. New obstacles to cooperation have come from the Republicans capturing control of the US House of Representatives in
the Nov. 2 congressional elections from Obama’s Democrats. Representative Frank Wolf, for instance, is set to take over as chairman
of the appropriations subcommittee that funds the US space agency in the House. A China critic and human rights firebrand, the
Republican congressman has faulted NASA’s chief for meeting leaders of China’s Manned Space Engineering Office in October.
“As you know, we have serious concerns about the nature and goals of China’s space program and strongly
oppose any cooperation between NASA and China,” Wolf and three fellow Republicans wrote NASA
Administrator Charles Bolden on Oct. 15 as he left for China. Obama and Hu, in a statement in November 2009, called for “the
initiation of a joint dialogue on human spaceflight and space exploration, based on the principles of transparency, reciprocity and
mutual benefit.” The statement, marking a visit by Obama to China, also called for reciprocal visits in 2010 of NASA’s chief and “the
appropriate Chinese counterpart.” Bolden, who went to China as head of a small team, said discussions there “did not include
consideration of any specific proposals for future cooperation” – a statement apparently designed to placate Wolf, who will have a big
say in NASA’s budget. The Chinese visit to NASA did not materialize in 2010 for reasons that have not been explained. NASA
representatives did not reply to questions but a Chinese embassy spokesman, Wang Baodong, said he suspected it was “mainly a
scheduling issue.” China is an emerging space power. Over 13 years starting in August 1996, it ran up 75 consecutive successful
Long March rocket launches after overcoming technical glitches with the help of US companies. China launched its second moon
orbiter in October. In 2008, it became the third country after the United States and Russia to send astronauts on a spacewalk outside an
orbiting craft. Beijing plans an unmanned moon landing and deployment of a moon rover in 2012 and the retrieval of lunar soil and
stone samples around 2017. Chinese scientists have talked about the possibility of sending a man to the moon after 2020 – more than
50 years after US astronauts accomplished the feat. Possible US-Chinese cooperation became more controversial
after Beijing carried out a watershed anti-satellite test in January 2007, using a ground-based missile to
knock out one of its inactive weather satellites in high polar orbit. No advance notice of the test was given. Thirteen
months later, the United States destroyed a malfunctioning US spy satellite using a ship-launched Raytheon Co Standard Missile 3
after a high-profile buildup to the event. The US interception was just outside the atmosphere so that debris would burn up promptly.
US officials say China’s capabilities could threaten US space assets in low orbit. The Chinese test also created a
large cloud of orbital debris that may last for 100 years, boosting the risk to manned spaceflight and to hundreds of satellites belonging
to more than two dozen countries. China’s work on anti-satellite weapons is “destabilizing,” Wallace Gregson, assistant US secretary
of defense for Asian and Pacific security affairs, said in December, also citing its investment in anti-ship missiles, advanced
submarines, surface-to-air missiles and computer warfare techniques. “It has become increasingly evident that China is pursuing a
long-term, comprehensive military buildup that could upend the regional security balance,” Gregson told a forum hosted by the
Progressive Policy Institute in Washington. The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, called on members of the incoming
Congress to be wary of any space cooperation with China on the grounds it could bolster Beijing’s knowledge and harm US security.
“Congress should reject (the Obama) administration attempts to curry favor with the international
community while placing US advantages in space at risk,” Dean Cheng, a Heritage research fellow for
Chinese political and security affairs, and two colleagues said in a Dec. 15 memo to lawmakers. Proponents
of cooperation say even symbolic steps, such as hosting a Chinese astronaut on the International Space Station, might help win friends
in Beijing and blunt hard-liners. Gregory Kulacki, China project manager for the Union of Concerned Scientists,
a group often at odds with US policy, said cooperation would be more of a political project than a technical
one. “We need to get past the idea that the Chinese need us more than we need them,” he said.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
AT: Perm Do Both—China says no
China won’t cooperate with the US
Richburg 11 (1-22-11, Keith, The Washington Post, “Mistrust stalls US-China space cooperation”,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/01/21/AR2011012104480.html)
China's grand ambitions extend literally to the moon, with the country now embarked on a multi-pronged
program to establish its own global navigational system, launch a space laboratory and put a Chinese
astronaut on the moon within the next decade. The Obama administration views space as ripe territory for
cooperation with China. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has called it one of four potential areas of
"strategic dialogue," along with cybersecurity, missile defense and nuclear weapons. And President Obama
and Chinese President Hu Jintao vowed after their White House summit last week to "deepen dialogue and
exchanges" in the field. But as China ramps up its space initiatives, the diplomatic talk of cooperation has
so far found little traction. The Chinese leadership has shown scant interest in opening up the most
sensitive details of its program, much of which is controlled by the People's Liberation Army (PLA). At
the same time, Chinese scientists and space officials say that Washington's wariness of China's intentions in
space, as well as U.S. bans on some high-technology exports, makes cooperation problematic.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
AT: Perm Do Both—China says no
China doesn’t want to cooperate with the US in space
Johnson-Freese, 6-10 (Joan Johnson-Freese, Professor of National Security Affairs at the U.S. Naval War College June 10,
2011, “US-China Space Cooperation: Congress’ Pointless Lockdown”, China US Focus- Website dedicated to US China Relationship,
http://www.chinausfocus.com/peace-security/us-china-space-cooperation-congress%E2%80%99-pointless-lockdown/)
In early May when the US government was scrambling to pass a budget, a provision was slipped into the NASA appropriations bill
that while counter to Obama Administration policy of expanded space cooperation, was not as important as getting a continuing
resolution passed and so allowed to slide through. Section 1340 of NASA’s budget prohibited NASA and the White
House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) from spending funds to “develop, design, plan,
promulgate, implement, or execute a bilateral policy, program, order, or contract of any kind to participate,
collaborate, or coordinate bilaterally in any way with China or any Chinese-owned company.” It also
prohibited the hosting of “official Chinese visitors” at any NASA facility. Clearly, a comprehensive ban on US-China space
cooperation was intended. Just as clearly, ban supporters are under the impression that Chinese space officials
are
anxiously banging on the proverbial US door, waiting and hoping for the opportunity to work with the
United States – which just isn’t the case. China has energetically and broadly moved out on their own in
space, and based on watching on-going US political kabuki dances about its future space plans, and seeing
how difficult and tenuous it can be for other countries to partner with the US – on the International Space Station (ISS), for example –
most Chinese space officials consider working with the United States as a potential liability to their own
already-underway plans. In fact, many countries consider that they can afford only so much US friendship,
though Congress continues to act as though the US is the only game in town if countries want to develop a
robust space program. Rarely do US attempts at isolating countries – ally or competitor - succeed without unexpected, and
negative, consequences. The Atomic Energy Act of 1946 restricted data sharing from the Manhattan Project with allies including
Britain, resulting in a significant wartime rift and leading to Britain developing their own bomb. After the infamous Cox Commission
Report in 1999 which investigated charges of theft and illegal satellite technology transfer to China, the US attempted to block dualuse satellite technology from sale or launch there. As a result, European space industries that had been niche providers developed
much broader capabilities so they could circumvent US prohibitions. US companies have lost business and the globalization of
technology marches on. For many years, Chinese politicians considered there would be geostrategic benefits to be derived from being
a partner on the ISS, symbolic of the “international family of spacefaring nations.” The United States stiff-arming them
from involvement is a factor behind China now developing its own space station. So what does a
legislative prohibition such as this achieve? It is pile-on evidence that the United States, or at least some of
the Congress, is oblivious to the state of the world and the US position in it. That is not a declaration of US
“decline,” another popular though misplaced cry frequently heard. It simply says that, realistically, the gap between the US and
countries such as China (and India, and Brazil) that were once “developing” and are now increasingly “developed” world has shrunk –
which is to the benefit of the US if one believes that security risks largely originate in underdeveloped areas not connected to the
globalized world. It will likely be read internationally with a certain degree of bemusement; Congress now declaring who NASA can
talk to and who it can’t, as though snubbing China will either result in a change in the Chinese domestic policies (such as human
rights) of concern to Congressional supporters of the ban, or inhibit its space plans. While the ban only covered expenditures through
September 30, 2011, it could be an issue in Fiscal Year 2012 as well since Representative Frank Wolk (R-VA), a fierce critic of China
and chair of the House spending committee that oversees NASA and several science agencies, and other committee Republicans, are
clearly focused on the issue. Tetchy exchanges between ban supporters and presidential science advisor John Holdren occurred at
subsequent Congressional hearings on the FY 2012 budget when Holdren stated that the ban did not apply to the President’s ability to
conduct foreign policy. Wolf and company pushed back against anything that would provide a loophole for presidential discretion in
working with China, tacitly threatening future NASA funding if the intent of their ban were to be evaded. After a hiatus following the
Cox Commission Report, small gestures of space outreach between the US and China began with NASA Administrator Mike Griffin’s
2006 trip to China during the Bush Administration, though the overall US policy toward China on cooperation remained largely
negative. While the Obama Administration has been much more generally positive about cooperation, including with China, there
have been no US-China cooperative programs put on the table by either side to consider, nor are any apparently in the works. Since
2006, US-China space cooperation has been treading water at best, so why the need now to make this bold, and pointless, political
statement is unclear. Perhaps supporters were just waving a “pay attention to us” flag at NASA regarding any potential future plans,
though if that was the case there were certainly other ways to send that message while still considering the broader aspects of US
strategic communication. What is clear, however, is that other countries have no such compunction as the US
about working with China – indeed many are anxious to have the opportunity to work with a country they
see as more open to partnerships, rather than the sub-contractor status some ISS “partners” have felt the US
afforded them. There may be little need to bar the door to countries wanting to work with the US on space activities, as there may
soon be fewer and fewer countries knocking. Congress and the Administration working together to refocus the US space program,
including realistic cooperation, would go further to maintain US space leadership than pointless isolation gestures.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
AT: Perm Do Both—Coop Bad
US cooperation with China in space is a bad idea
Brown 10 (Peter J. Brown- July 16, 2010- Asian Times- http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/LG16Df02.html)
A new National Space Policy issued by United States President Barack Obama's administration in late June emphasized the important
role of international cooperation in space and demonstrated the apparent willingness of the US to begin work on a space weapons
treaty. [1] As the three major space powers in Asia - China, India and Japan - assess the new policy, they must pay close attention not
only to the details, but also to the harsh political winds that are buffeting Obama these days. Some see China as the big winner in this
instance, while others see India and Japan coming out on top. "[The new US space policy] which lays out broad themes and goals,
does not lend itself to such determination for a specific country," said Subrata Ghoshroy, a research associate at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology's Program in Science, Technology, and Society. However, he added, "countries like India and Japan are
expected to benefit more". From the start, however, Obama's overhaul of both the US space sector as a whole and the US National
Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in particular has encountered stiff opposition in the US Congress. That opposition is
likely to intensify as November's mid-term elections approach. In the US Senate, attempts are being made to toss aside Obama's
domestic space sector agenda. [2] Political infighting aside, it is not just US conservatives who do not want the
US to embrace China in space. "Many members of the Obama administration and a large majority of the
members of Congress are opposed to cooperation with China in space. They want to deny China status as a
member in good standing of the international community of space-faring nations," said Gregory Kulacki,
senior analyst and China Project Manager for the Global Security Program at the Massachusetts-based
Union of Concerned Scientists. "Many believe they have not earned that right. At the same time, however,
they have not specified what China must do to earn it. Some tie cooperation in space to human rights.
Others connect cooperation in space it to other troublesome issues in the bilateral relationship." Despite this
enormous wall that has been in place for years, some experts still view China as deriving great benefit from the new space policy.
"China will likely be the country to most clearly benefit," said Joan Johnson-Freese, chair of the National Security Decision Making
Department at the US Naval War College. "That said, China likely still faces the most challenges. Cooperation between the US and
China will be a learning process, and likely not an easy one for either party. And, because space technology is largely dual-
use there will inherently be questions about intent and demands for transparency that are uncomfortable for
both sides." China's objectives are political, not technical in this instance. As the Chinese strive to become
respected members of the international community of space-faring nations, some Chinese aerospace
professionals see cooperation with the US as an obstacle, according to Kulacki. A cooperative project with the US
in human space flight, for example, would take time, personnel and resources away from their existing program. "To date there have
been no concrete proposals for cooperative projects from either side, despite the express wishes of both presidents. US Secretary of
State Clinton and Chinese Foreign Minister Yang [Jiechi] seem to have dropped the ball," said Kulacki. "The Chinese aerospace
community has their own long-standing plan for a national space station and they are well on their way to
completing it. They do not need access to US technology to do it." Recent news accounts about supposed overtures
being made to the Chinese by several nations which participate in the International Space Station (ISS) program were quickly
dismissed by officials at NASA. [3] "ISS participation has been the brass ring for China for many years, to show them as a member of
the 'international family of spacefaring nations' and add another layer of patina to the legitimacy and credibility of their civilian space
program," said Johnson-Freese. There is always concern about China obtaining design and systems engineering ideas that would
benefit its space station program. This should come as no surprise given that China once built a launch site at the same latitude as
NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida. However, ideology and not the threat of industrial espionage in space is the key driver
here. "The most concern I have heard voiced has been by those who do not want to work with a communist government," said
Johnson-Freese. This explains why no meaningful export reforms with respect to high technology items in general and so-called dualuse space hardware exports to China in particular have materialized despite promises made during Obama's presidential campaign.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
AFF: Perm Solvency
Lack of cooperation leads to loss of hegemony and diplomatic capabilities
Young 11 (Connie Young- July 7, 2011- World Watch- http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_162-20077462-503543.html)
Gregory Kulacki, a Beijing-based global security analyst and member of the Union of Concerned Scientists
wrote in the journal "Nature" that the restrictions placed on NASA may, in part, be partisan U.S. politics
threatening to further exacerbate a relationship already fraught with distrust. The scientist tells CBS News that
Wolf's amendment was "prompted by efforts by the Obama administration to reach out to the Chinese (on space cooperation) even
though the Bush Administration had been doing the same thing for years." "The ban should be lifted," wrote Kulacki
bluntly. "The progress of Chinese space activity during the previous US administration suggests that the
prohibitions that have stifled Sino-American scientific cooperation for decades have not achieved their
aims, and have arguably been counterproductive. China has shown that it has the talent and resources to go
it alone. The sanctions have only severed links between the countries and made a new generation of
Chinese intellectuals resentful and suspicious of the United States. And they stand in contrast to the
tradition of scientists strengthening diplomatic relations." Other experts agree that cooperation between the
two countries, particularly on space and science projects, is mutually beneficial. Mitigating space debris
and collecting data for weather and natural disasters around the globe, once spearheaded by former
Secretary of State Collin Powell, are a few examples of common interests.
SNFI 2011
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China CP
Rebecca/Matt
AFF: Perm Solvency
The US will be forced to work with China to maintain its hegemony in space
Tkacik, 10—former chief of China analysis in the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and
Research during the Clinton administration. (John, “China space program shoots for moon”, The Washington Post, 18-10, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jan/08/china-eyes-high-ground/?page=1)
In November, Chinese air force commander Gen. Xu Qiliang observed that “competition between military forces is now turning
toward the realm of space, [and] military modernization is ceaselessly expanding into space.”
But during his visit to Beijing a few days later, President Obama talked about “cooperation” rather than competition. In a joint
statement with Chinese President Hu Jintao, the two leaders called for “a dialogue on human space flight and space exploration, based
on the principles of transparency, reciprocity and mutual benefit.” China’s aerospace industry firms - which for decades have supplied
dangerous missile technologies and equipment to Iran, North Korea and Pakistan, and which have been sanctioned ceaselessly by four
successive U.S. presidents for their transgressions - will find the United States in a new suppliant posture. The atrophying U.S.
space program suggests that America will be forced to cooperate with China in space, or else cede the high
frontier of space to China altogether. In October, a White House committee headed by former Lockheed Martin Chairman
Norman Augustine, reported that without $3 billion in additional funding, NASA has no plan that “permits human exploration to
continue in any meaningful way.” October’s launch of the experimental Ares 1-X heavy lift rocket, while flawless, may well mark the
end rather than the beginning of America’s next-generation Constellation manned-space program. The space shuttle is scheduled for
retirement this year and until Constellation gets off the ground, future American astronauts will rely on Russians - or Chinese - to get
into orbit - if they want to get there at all. America’s multitrillion-dollar deficits over the next 10 years are likely to dissuade the
Obama administration from budgeting for Constellation until well after Mr. Obama leaves office, if then. The Pentagon is clearly
alarmed by the prospect. The chief of U.S. Strategic Command, Gen. Kevin Chilton, told reporters Nov. 3,
“With regard to China’s [space] capabilities, I think anyone who’s familiar with this business … would
have to be absolutely amazed at the advancement that China has made in such a short period of time,
whether that be in their unmanned program or the manned program.”
Senior Chinese space officials have told their state media that China could be on the moon by 2022 at the
outside. Other authoritative Chinese space engineers see a moon landing as a next step in the Tiangong program that will launch
three Chinese space stations into Earth orbit between 2011 and 2015. In 2008, NASA scientists told the Bush White House that, with
the technology currently available to the Chinese space program, Chinese cosmonauts could be on the moon by 2017. NASA sees
China’s strategy for a manned lunar landing as launch vehicle intensive. While America’s notional Constellation moon project centers
on a single - and still unbuilt - Ares-V “superheavy” lift booster for a direct ascent to the moon and two “lunar orbit rendezvous”
operations, China will likely opt for two complex “Earth orbit rendezvous” maneuvers. This will require four “Long March
V” rockets - in the same class as the Pentagon’s Delta IV heavy lift launch vehicles - to put their
cosmonauts on the moon. Launched in pairs over a two-week period from China’s new Wenchang Space Center on the South
China Sea island of Hainan, the four Long March Vs will each loft 26-ton payloads into low Earth orbits. The first mission will orbit
the rocket for the translunar journey which will then join a second payload of an empty lunar module (LM) and its lunar-orbit rocket
motor. Those first two unmanned payloads will rendezvous in Earth orbit and then fire off for the quarter-million-mile journey to the
moon. Once the unmanned LM is in a stable lunar orbit, the second pair of missions will be launched into Earth’s orbit; the first with
another translunar rocket motor and the second with a combined payload comprising the lunar orbiting module, a modified service
module, an Earth re-entry module and the manned Shenzhou capsule with three Chinese cosmonauts. NASA’s experts understand the
capabilities, talents - and intentions - of their Chinese counterparts perhaps better than anyone outside China and Russia. China’s Long
March V rockets are in development now; Russian space scientists now aid their Chinese counterparts in perfecting the Shenzhou
class of manned vehicles - closely modeled on the rugged, tried-and-true Soyuz; China has also purchased Russia’s spacesuit designs
and the KURS and APAS rendezvous and docking systems. In contrast, NASA has resigned itself to the realities that America’s space
shuttles will be decommissioned by 2010 and, while the test-launch of the Ares 1-X heavy lift booster was successful, the follow-on
Constellation manned program does not have a budget that will get it off the blueprint tables. Nor is NASA staffed with the scientists
needed to support it. The median age of NASA’s manned space engineers is now over 55. Over a quarter are
past retirement age. Meanwhile, China’s average lunar probe engineer is about 33 years old and the
Shenzhou manned-space program engineers average about 36. China’s space program also seems to have
all the funding and resources it needs, partially due to the fact that seven of China’s nine most senior
leaders - the Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party Politburo - are themselves engineers.
China may already be the second-largest manufacturing power on Earth and possesses a highly advanced
industrial infrastructure. It now has more than $2.3 trillion in excess foreign exchange holdings - adding
another $300 billion just in the past nine months, equal the entire gross product of Argentina. And China’s
top universities are rolling in research money, possess the latest laboratory equipment, and have their pick
of the most brilliant students. In 2005, China produced 351,537 engineers, with at least a bachelor’s degree, nearly double the
United States figure of 137,437; and a healthy chunk of China top engineers get their doctoral training at American universities. For
example, of the 99 doctorates in engineering awarded by the University of Virginia from August 2007 to August 2008, one third - 33 went to scholars from Chinese universities. To be sure, China’s imaginative and capable aerospace engineers have devised quite
SNFI 2011
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China CP
Rebecca/Matt
workable spacefaring designs, and their access to Russia’s space science has helped accelerate their progress. And what the Chinese
can’t buy from the Russians, or learn at America’s top universities, they can still pilfer from U.S. industry. In July, Dongfan Chung, a
former stress engineer with Boeing, was convicted of economic espionage involving 300,000 pages of sensitive data, including
information about the space shuttle and the fueling system for America’s biggest booster rocket, the Delta IV. In his ruling, the judge
in the case noted that Mr. Chung, a U.S. citizen, had decided “to serve the [People’s Republic of China], which he proudly proclaimed
as his ‘motherland.’ ” In 2008, Shu Quan-sheng, an American physicist living in Virginia was convicted of transferring to the Chinese
People’s Liberation Army details of liquid hydrogen tanks for the Delta IV. This combination of financial wealth,
educational excellence, advanced technology and a penchant for plundering intellectual property has
enabled China’s space program to develop swiftly. In 2003, China’s gained entry into the exclusive
manned-space club previously restricted to the United States and Russia. By 2008, Chinese astronauts were
taking space walks and buzzing tiny “BX-1” nano-satellites around their space capsules, a technology that
puts them on the cutting edge of “space situational awareness” that America’s military space assets still
lack. Beijing’s political and military leaders alike foresee “competition” in space with the United States. They certainly plan to seize
the high ground of low-Earth orbit and then will likely move to the even higher ground of moon landings perhaps before this decade is
out. Judging from the past behavior of China’s state-owned aerospace firms especially in their unseemly eagerness to proliferate
ballistic missile technology to rogue states, it is unlikely that Mr. Obama can count on much “cooperation” with China in space except on China’s terms.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
AFF: Perm Solvency
China wants to cooperate with the US in space
Kulacki 11 (Gregory, Union of Concerned Scientists, http://allthingsnuclear.org/post/7405502775/interesting-comments-fromchinas-first-astronaut, 7/8/11)
Yesterday, during a press event, Yang Liwei, China’s first astronaut, put several interesting pieces of
information on the table in the ongoing debate about China’s integration into the international space
community. Yang is also the Vice-Director of China’s Manned Space Engineering Office. First, Yang
announced that “ in the future, our country will energetically seek cooperation with the International Space
Station (ISS).” While China’s desire to participate in the ISS not new, and is well-known in the space
community, this is the first time a prominent figure has made such a strong statement about it to the
Chinese public. Yang noted that China has not participated in the past, but that “in the future of the space enterprise,
international cooperation is an important trend.” Second, Yang noted that “From a technical point of view, there is no
technical difficulty in having our spacecraft and space station engage in international cooperation. But, because the docking standard
on our space station and the international space station are not the same, the unification of standards is the first problem that needs to
be solved in opening up and developing space station cooperation.” This contradicts earlier U.S. reports that China had developed an
ISS-compatible docking mechanism. Finally, Yang noted that “transparency” was a “prerequisite” for seeking
international cooperation in space activity. These statements raise some interesting questions. If China was seriously
planning on pursuing international cooperation, especially some sort of agreement on participation in the ISS, why would it be
developing a potentially incompatible docking technology for its own space station? The first test of its docking mechanism is
scheduled for this fall. China plans to launch an experimental space lab and conduct a remote docking mission with an unmanned
Shenzhou spacecraft before the end of the year. Yang’s comments on the possible compatibility problems associated with China’s
docking mechanism also suggests that China’s Shenzhou human space flight program may rely on indigenously developed technology
to a much greater degree than many American analysts assume. One prominent US observer, for example, once suggested that
China’s Shenzhou space craft was fitted with a Russian docking mechanism that could dock with the ISS. If China was receiving
significant technical assistance from Russia, and planned to participate in the ISS, Russia could have provided China with a
compatible docking mechanism. Yang’s announcement suggests China developed its own docking technology. Moreover, in Yang’s
view, and presumably in the view of the Chinese Manned Space Engineering Office, this is a problem that needs to be addressed if
China is to participate in ISS activities in the future. Finally, Yang’s comment on transparency should be welcome
news to many US observers who express concern about the motivations for China’s foray into human space
flight. Unfortunately, at a time when China may be more willing to be more open about its human space flight program, Congress
has barred NASA from even talking to them about it.
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China CP
Rebecca/Matt
AFF: China Militarization DA
China space power leads to China space weaponization
The China Post 11 (“China Space Weapons Worrisome:US”, The China Post, 2-6-11,
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/china/national-news/2011/02/06/290160/China-space.htm) RS
China is developing “counterspace” weapons that could shoot down satellites or jam signals,
a Pentagon official said Friday as the United States unveiled a 10-year strategy for security in space. “The
WASHINGTON
investment China is putting into counterspace capabilities is a matter of concern to us,” deputy secretary of defense for space policy
Gregory Schulte told reporters as the defense and intelligence communities released their 10-year National Security Space Strategy
(NSSS). The NSSS marks a huge shift from past practice, charting a 10-year path in space to make the United States “more resilient”
and able to defend its assets in a dramatically more crowded, competitive, challenging and sometimes hostile environment, Schulte
said. “Space is no longer the preserve of the U.S. and the Soviet Union, at the time in which we could operate with impunity,” Schulte
said. “There are more competitors, more countries that are launching satellites ... and we increasingly have
to worry about countries developing counterspace capabilities that can be used against the peaceful use of
space. “China is at the forefront of the development of those capabilities,” he said.
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China CP
Rebecca/Matt
AFF: China Militarization DA
China has space weapon technology
MacDonald 08—former assistant director for national security at the White House Office of Science
and Technology Policy (9-08, Bruce, “China, Space Weapons, and US Security”, Council on Foreign Relations, pg. 7)
Well aware of its military inferiority to the United States, China is likely doing what countries in
comparable security situations do: developing military capabilities targeted against the vulnerabilities of its
stronger potential adversary. The United States’ relative space advantage will probably shrink as China
strengthens its space capabilities over the next ten to twenty years. The voluminous People’s Liberation
Army (PLA) literature on space conflict underscores that PLA officers are explicitly interested in space
weapons. But Chinese military writings are no more likely to accurately reflect Beijing’s policy than
midlevel U.S. military writings would Washington’s official policy. However, arguments that this PLA
literature is merely academic lost some credibility in the aftermath of China’s 2007 ASAT test.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
AFF: China Militarization DA
China’s ASAT and space weapon capabilities give it an asymmetric advantage in space.
MacDonald 08—former assistant director for national security at the White House Office of Science
and Technology Policy (9-08, Bruce, “China, Space Weapons, and US Security”, Council on Foreign Relations, pg. 3-4)
On January 11, 2007, China launched a missile into space, releasing a homing vehicle that destroyed an old
Chinese weather satellite. The strategic reverberations of that collision have shaken up security think- ing
in the United States and around the world. This test demonstrated that, if it so chose, China could build a
substantial number of these an- ti-satellite weapons (ASAT) and thus might soon be able to destroy
substantial numbers of U.S. satellites in low earth orbit (LEO), upon which the U.S. military heavily
depends. On February 21, 2008, the United States launched a modified missile-defense interceptor, de- stroying a U.S. satellite
carrying one thousand pounds of toxic fuel about to make an uncontrolled atmospheric reentry. Thus, within fourteen months, China
and the United States both demonstrated the capability to destroy LEO satellites, heralding the arrival of an era where space is a
potentially far more contested domain than in the past, with few rules.1 Having crossed a space Rubicon with their ASAT
demonstrations, neither nation can un-invent these capabilities. As the United States approaches major security policy reviews with
the advent of a new administration in early 2009, both it and China face fundamental choices about the deployment and use of such
capabilities, and the de- velopment of more advanced space weapons.2 The United States and China stand at a crossroads on weapons
and space: whether to control this potential competition, and if so, how. While the United States is likely well ahead of
China in offensive space capability, China current- ly is much less dependent on space assets than the U.S.
military, and thus in the near term has less to lose from space conflict if it became inevitable. China’s far
smaller space dependence, which hinders its military potential, ironically appears to give it a potential
relative near- term offensive advantage: China has the ability to attack more U.S. space assets than vice
versa, an asymmetry that complicates the issue of space deterrence, discussed later. This asymmetric Chinese
advan- tage will likely diminish as China grows increasingly dependent on space over the next twenty years, and as the United States
addresses this space vulnerability. Thus, the time will come when the United States will be able to inflict militarily meaningful
damage on Chinese space-based assets, establishing a more symmetric deterrence potential in space. Before then, other asymmetric
means are available to the United States to deter China, though at possibly greater escalatory risk. That is, the United States could
threaten to attack not just Chinese space assets, but also ground-based assets, including ASAT command- and-control centers and
other military capabilities. But such actions, which would involve attacking Chinese soil and likely causing substan- tial direct
casualties, would politically weigh much heavier than the U.S. loss of space hardware, and thus might climb the escalatory ladder to a
more damaging war both sides would probably want to avoid.
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China CP
Rebecca/Matt
AFF: No Solvency—Affordability
China’s economy is fundamentally unstable
The Economist 11 (“How real is China’s growth?”, 6-1-11,
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/05/chinas_economy_1) RS
Chinese officials were quick to play down the country's dependence on foreign demand, pointing to
progress in the country's trade surplus. There may be less to this than they indicate; Michael Pettis writes
here, for instance, about financial chicanery in the country's copper trade that may have artificially boosted
import totals early in 2011. China is also cultivating export markets in fast growing countries across central and southeast Asia.
But candid Chinese professionals admitted that trouble in the US and European economies represented a
big potential threat to the economy. That threat will slowly ebb as Chinese consumers become more active. Government
officials repeatedly reported eye-popping real income growth figures. But more than one of the people I spoke with
likened the Chinese economy to a large ship that can't turn on a dime. No amount of movement in exchange
rates or wages or policies will move the Chinese economy to a more normal rate of domestic consumption
overnight. What seemed clear, however, was that the fundamentals in the Chinese economy are stronger than many Americans
suspect. For this reason, a collapse looks unlikely, and the government has the will and the means to fight off a short-term crisis. The
government cites stability as its source of legitimacy, and it draws a tight connection between stability and economic growth. Stability,
and therefore growth, will be especially important given the looming handover of party and national leadership from Hu Jintao to (it
seems certain) Xi Jinping. The present policy strategy is muddied somewhat by the rise in inflation, which is a
big source of concern among the masses. China will trade off a little growth for control of its prices. Officials will try
extremely hard to ensure that the landing is a soft one, however. (For more on the progress here, read this week's economics Lead
note. Markets seem to be overreacting to signs of a Chinese slowdown .) The longer-term picture is far murkier, however.
Nothing that I saw on my trip convinced me that the country's economy is becoming more nimble. There are
large structural problems in the economy that will begin to bite as China exhausts its potential for rapid
catch-up growth. And what then? The private economy is growing in importance (many of the larger companies in the
economy remain state-owned or controlled, including a substantial number that "look" private). Chinese citizens are no strangers to
entrepreneurship. But entrepreneurial activity isn't always consistent with party goals. Successful start-ups may threaten established
firms with state connections, leading officials to either rein in the start-up or take for themselves a direct financial interest in it. Will
China be able to embrace the hurly burly of the entrepreneurial marketplace? If it can't, the middle-income trap may loom.
SNFI 2011
Neg Group
China CP
Rebecca/Matt
AFF: No Solvency—Affordability
China’s growth rate masks serious economic problems
Balfour 09 (Frederik, 1-22-09, Bloomberg Businessweek, “The Global Recession Slams China”,
http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/jan2009/gb20090122_354571.htm) RS
By the standards of just about any other country, the latest growth figures in China would be a cause for
jubilation. The country clocked 6.8% year-on-year growth for the fourth quarter of 2008 and 9% for the year. But those figures
mask an underlying picture that is anything but rosy for an economy that is just starting to feel the full
impact of the global meltdown. In fact the economy registered virtually no growth over the third quarter,
and things are going to get a lot worse before they get better. "The situation is quite dire," says David Cui,
China economist at Merrill Lynch. "I don't expect us to come out of this any time soon because the global
demand situation is so bad." Cui isn't the only bearish one. David Wong, vice-president of the Chinese Manufacturers
Association of Hong Kong, says its members are bracing for a difficult year. "This is unprecedented among our manufacturers," he
says. "This is the worst that anyone can remember." Qu Hongbing, China economist at HSBC (HBC) says China
could see growth dipping as low as 6%, dangerously short of 8%, widely regarded as the level needed to
generate enough jobs to absorb new entrants into the workforce. "Export contraction will only be deeper
when global demand continues to shrink, so we'll see more job losses. Consumers will become more
cautious. And if this continues, there is a real risk of a downward spiral.