Topic Guide Population in India: “Curbing population growth is an urgent priority for India” On 31 October 2011, World Population Day was marked with the announcement that the seventh billionth baby had been born in India’s most populous state of Uttar Pradesh. While this was treated as a cause for celebration, it also generated considerable debate and unease. India’s census of 2011 also found that the population (1.2 billion) has undergone a five-fold increase over the last 100 years and will surpass that of China by 2050. With existing problems of poverty and famine, how could an overcrowded planet possibly sustain a growing population? While China and India rapidly industrialise and their billions of citizens aspire to a Western consumerist lifestyle, there has been much talk across the world of a ‘population timebomb’. In August 2010, a discussion on population stabilisation took place in the Lok Sabha for the first time in nearly 34 years, with Health Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad calling for a “cohesive ‘movement’ by all parties, rising above politics”, to find solutions to the rising population. Azad and others have continued to underline the importance of the population issue ever since. For some, however, ‘the population timebomb’ has already been proven to be a myth, doomsayers have long predicted catastrophe and it has not yet come to pass. Indeed, they suggest that there is every reason to believe scientific and economic development will continue to provide enough resources for a growing world population. The likes of ‘rational optimist’ Matt Ridley argue that the Industrial Revolution and ‘Green Revolution’ of the 1960/70s transformed food production in a way many did not predict: the likes of GM crops hold similar potential to revolutionise food production today, for example. The population debate provokes a number of anxieties. Some worry whether India’s domestic economy will be able to provide for the sheer number of its citizens. There are global concerns about the impact of population growth on the natural environment. But ‘population control’ measures taken to control the number of children that families have suffer from a negative history, and raise a host of important questions about individual privacy and rights versus State coercion. The debate involves untangling each of these concerns. The debate in context: Is a youthful population good for India? India’s impressive economic growth has raised new social challenges. A recent UN report on urban growth the '2011 Revision of the World Urbanisation Prospects', found that India and China will experience an unprecedented increase in their urban populations in the next four decades, posing new challenges of providing jobs, energy, housing and infrastructure to their people. Poverty and inequality remains widespread, and there are fears about the demands that sheer numbers of people make on resources and the impact of that on social stability. On the other hand, India is a notably young country: one article notes that, by the end of this decade, ‘the average Indian will be just 29 years old compared with 37 in China and 45 in Western Europe’. The relative youth of the population holds the potential for a ‘demographic dividend’, where an expanding workforce is able to sustain economic growth. This is in stark contrast to fears in the Western world about the consequences of ‘ageing’, in which a shrinking pool of workers has to support a bulk of dependent, elderly people. Population size itself, some argue, gives India an advantage over other, smaller nation states: and a US defence report reportedly predicted that ‘both economic and military power will lie with the countries that have the right population numbers, and also the right age structure, in 20 years time’. However, some point to the unreliability of demographic predictions Are current levels of population growth sustainable? The debate about global population control tends to hinge on concerns about the scarcity of resources. The UK organisation Optimum Population Trust, which encourages people to ‘stop at two’ children, forecast that the predicted drastic increases in population by 2050 could have potentially devastating consequences for water and food resources. The world food crisis of 2008, which saw rocketing prices of wheat, rice and cooking oil and left millions across the world with the prospect of starvation, led many to ask whether a Topic Guide growing world population might be the culprit. In June 2012 a coalition of 105 of the world’s leading science institutions submitted a report ahead of the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20 Summit) urging world leaders to take ‘urgent action’ on population and consumption for the sake of the global environment. But a number of commentators suggest that the real problem lies with consumption more than population. Citing Mahatma Gandhi’s famous quote: “Earth provides enough to satisfy every man’s needs but not enough for everyone’s greed”, some suggest that the affluent and consumerist-driven West must be prepared to reduce its use of these resources, with at least a willingness to reduce consumption of luxuries. Others, however, argue that both the environmental and anti-consumerist arguments around population control represent a new form of Malthusianism. In 1798, Thomas Malthus’ famous ‘Essay on the Principle of Population’ warned that population growth would lead to a crisis of food supply and falling wages. More recently environmentalists such as Paul Ehrlich have made similar predictions. Malthus’ warning was proved to be overly pessimistic at the time, and today the concern with ‘finite resources’ does not take into account humanity’s proven record in solving problems and creating new resources, not least through advancing economic development. The ‘Malthusian fallacy’, some argue, gets the issue the wrong way round: the problem is not the number of people consuming resources; rather, the solution lies with large numbers of people taking society forwards. People move to populous towns and cities, because this is where the opportunities are created: this would not happen if larger numbers of people simply meant a drain on resources. Should governments be allowed to plan people’s families? Attempts by states to control the size of their populations have an unpopular history. Across the world in the 20th century, fears about the ‘wrong kind of people’ being born formed the basis of eugenic ideologies and policies which focused on discouraging people from a particular race or social class from breeding. China’s One-Child Policy remains controversial. India has its own history of population policy, organised both centrally and at a state level. Following the backlash against forced vasectomies in family planning programmes imposed by Indira Ghandi during the Emergency in the 1970s, it has been a sensitive area, and during the recent debate, Azad has already ruled out any attempt to use coercive methods to bring about population stablisation. But some commentators argue incentive based planning is making a comeback, and that contemporary concerns, such as an ‘obsession with millennium development goals’ are leading to a ‘repackaged population control programme’. A number of schemes exist to discourage couples from having many children: from paying newly married couples to wait two years before having children, to a recently-unveiled ambitious plan to ensure that condoms reach every home in the country's 600,000 villages. The government’s National Population Policy 2000 includes the objective of achieving ‘a stable population by 2045, at a level consistent with the requirements of sustainable economic growth, social development and environmental protection’. Over the past two decades, the ‘population paradigm’ has shifted towards a greater emphasis on women’s rights and health. The UN-organised International Conference on Population and Development in 1994 brought the issue of population and the developing world together; improving women’s access to birth control was seen as a key strategy for improving health and managing economic development. Increased access to family planning – contraception and abortion – is generally recognised in the developed world as an important and positive gain for women’s rights and health. However, there is concern that the promotion of family planning, particularly in the developed world, uses the language of ‘reproductive rights’ to justify a population control agenda in a way that is dishonest, exploitative of women, and open to abuse by officials and medical professionals. Allowing governments, or any authorities, to intervene even indirectly in a couple’s private decisions about how many children they should have, it is argued, compromises the hardwon modern principles of privacy and decisional autonomy. In any case, many argue that smaller family size is a product of social and economic development, not its cause. Topic Guide ESSENTIAL READING India’s population: The 700-crore club Economist 31 October 2011 http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2011/10/indias-population The world at seven billion Mike Gallagher BBC News Magazine 28 October 2011 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-15449959 Beyond prescriptive targets R. Nanda The Hindu 14 July 2010 http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/article514094.ece Q & A: 'Family planning is not just controlling numbers' Rahul Singh Times of India 10 September 2010 http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/opinion/edit-page/Family-planning-is-not-just-controllingnumbers/articleshow/6526138.cms Three’s a crowd? The battle over population and reproduction Ellie Lee Abortion Review 6 November 2009 http://www.abortionreview.org/index.php/site/article/628/ FOR Is India an overpopulated country given its resources? Naveen Jindal Times of India 30 October 2011 http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-10-30/news/30336739_1_sterilisation-population-growthrate-higher-economic-growth No demographic dividend without population control R Jagannathan DNA India 19 August 2010 http://www.dnaindia.com/opinion/main-article_no-demographic-dividend-without-population-control_1425415 Controlling the numbers Amarjit Singh The Tribune 11 July 2010 http://www.tribuneindia.com/2010/20100711/edit.htm#1 Population policy and legal prescriptions V.R. Krishna Iyer The Hindu 13 August 2008 http://www.hindu.com/2008/08/13/stories/2008081354931000.htm Population: The last taboo Julia Whitty Mother Jones May/June 2010 http://motherjones.com/environment/2010/05/population-growthindia-vatican?page=1 AGAINST Too many people? No, too many Malthusians Brendan O’Neill spiked 19 November 2009 http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php/site/article/7723/ Topic Guide The Population Myth Amit Varma Mint 25 October 2007 http://www.livemint.com/2007/10/25001502/The-Population-Myth.html The myth of ideal population size Nalini Bhanot and Laxmi Murthy InfoChange India March 2007 http://infochangeindia.org/200704066301/Population/Population-Puzzle/The-myth-of-ideal-populationsize.html Emergency without an Emergency? The two-child norm for panchayat members Mohan Rao InfoChange India August 2003 http://infochangeindia.org/20030805300/Population/Features/Emergency-without-an-Emergency-The-twochild-norm-for-panchayat-members.html The population timebomb is a myth Dominic Lawson Independent 18 January 2011 http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/dominic-lawson/dominic-lawson-the-populationtimebomb-is-a-myth-2186968.html# IN DEPTH Experts Prediction Global Population Will Plateau Spiegel online 3 November 2011 http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/the-great-contraction-experts-predict-global-population-will-plateaua-795479.html The Population Control Holocaust Robert Zubrin The New Atlantis Number 35, Spring 2012 http://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/article_detail.asp?id=660&css=print Population: one planet, too many people? Institution of Mechanical Engineers January 2011 http://www.imeche.org/Libraries/2011_Press_Releases/Population_report.sflb.ashx Seven billion and counting Karna Basu Indian Express 31 October 2011 http://www.indianexpress.com/story-print/867878/ Seven billionth baby Jug Suraiya Times of India 9 November 2011 http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/jugglebandhi/entry/seven-billionth-baby Population, angels and demons Renuka Bisht Financial Express 19 July 2010 http://www.financialexpress.com/news/column-populationangels-and-demons/648295/0 A tale of three islands The Economist 22 October 2011 http://www.economist.com/node/21533364 Topic Guide Is a large population key to economic growth? The Hindu Business Line 18 August 2010 http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2010/08/18/stories/2010081853310400.htm It will be a smaller world after all Ben Wattenberg New York Times 8 March 2003 http://www.nytimes.com/2003/03/08/opinion/08WATT.html Treating human beings as little more than carbon Frank Furedi spiked 7 December 2009 http://www.spiked-online.com/site/article/7803/ India's demographic dividend BBC News Online 25 July 2007, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6911544.stm Are We Breeding Ourselves to Extinction? Chris Hedges AlterNet 11 March 2009 http://www.alternet.org/environment/130843/are_we_breeding_ourselves_to_extinction/ Rebuttal to Chris Hedges: Stop the Tired Overpopulation Hysteria Betsy Hartmann AlterNet 14 March 2009 http://www.alternet.org/reproductivejustice/131400 KEY TERMS Population control http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_population_control Eugenics http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/eugenics Demographic dividend http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6911544.stm Climate change http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change Malthusianism http://www.thefreedictionary.com/malthusianism ORGANISATIONS Overpopulation.com http://www.overpopulation.com/ JSK (National Population Stabilisation Fund) http://www.jsk.gov.in/india_and_population.asp National Commission on Population http://populationcommission.nic.in/welcome.htm Topic Guide Population connection http://www.populationconnection.org/site/PageServer The Optimum Population Trust http://www.optimumpopulation.org/ IN THE NEWS India for rights-based approach in family planning The Hindu 9 June 2012 http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article3506099.ece Human population is getting too heavy for earth Business Standard 19 June 2012 http://www.business-standard.com/generalnews/news/human-population-is-getting-too-heavy-for-earthstudy/21944/ Bill Gates says will not fund abortion programmes Times of India 1 June 2012 http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-06-01/india/31957911_1_control-population-bill-gates-familyplanning Family planning counsellors at district hospitals First Post India 8 June 2012 http://www.firstpost.com/india/family-planning-counsellors-at-district-hospitals-337257.html Population of elderly to touch 100 mn mark Indian Express 4 May 2012 http://www.indianexpress.com/news/population-of-elderly-to-touch-100-mn-mark/945470/ ‘India’s population growth to fall 5%’ Indian Express 4 July 2011 http://www.indianexpress.com/news/indias-population-growth-to-fall-5/746201/ Poor in India exceed population in 1947’ Indian Express 28 July 2010 http://www.indianexpress.com/news/poor-in-india-exceed-population-in-1947/652842/ Slower Indian population growth boosts job prospects Economic Times 2 April 2011 http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-04-02/news/29374487_1_female-literacy-growth-ratepopulation Census 2011: India's population now estimated at 1,210.2 million Sify News 31 March 2011 http://www.sify.com/news/census-2011-india-s-population-now-estimated-at-1-210-2-million-news-nationalld5nOeaigje.html India's middle class population to touch 267 million in 5 yrs Indian Express 6 February 2011 Topic Guide http://www.indianexpress.com/election-news/india%5Cs-middle-class-population-to-touch-267-million-in-5yrs/746724 Condoms at every doorstep to curb population boom IndiaVision.com 8 September 2010 http://www.indiavision.com/news/article/health/99951/ India Tries Using Cash Bonuses to Slow Birthrates Jim Yardley New York Times 21 August 2010 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/22/world/asia/22india.html Radical policy changes needed to stabilise population: Azad UNI (United News of India) 4 August 2010 http://www.newkerala.com/news2/fullnews-13850.html Govt not to adopt forcible measures to check population Indian Express 4 August 2010 http://www.indianexpress.com/news/govt-concerned-over-high-rate-of-population-growth/655988/ India to surpass China in terms of population by 2050: Govt report Times of India 11 July 2010, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-to-surpass-China-in-terms-of-population-by-2050-Govtreport/articleshow/6153912.cms Docs from country join hands on to control population Times of India 11 July 2010 http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/ahmedabad/Docs-from-country-join-hands-on-to-controlpopulation/articleshow/6153101.cms Azad rules out law to control population growth Times of India 6 May 2010 http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Azad-rules-out-law-to-control-populationgrowth/articleshow/5895087.cms Population stabilisation scheme soon, says Azad The Hindu 12 April 2010 http://www.thehindu.com/health/policy-and-issues/article395339.ece