Introduction
Director Roland Emmerich is a known environmentalist and Green Party supporter. It
is therefore not surprising that he has used climate change for his latest mega-buck
production “Day after Tomorrow”. Being a Hollywood production, the film includes
teenage romance, heroism, geeky scientists and tragedy. It is complemented by
stunning special effects. Past films by Roland include Independence Day, where US
President wages war with aliens and the Godzilla.
Background
The Day after Tomorrow was inspired by The Coming Global Superstorm by Art
Bell and Whitley Strieber. Strieber was involved in developing the film’s story. The
film is set against a background of impeding global warming. It opens with a
reconstruction of the spectacular ice shelf break up of Larsen B, Antarctica. In this
real event occurring in February 2002 an ice mass the size of Belgium disintegrated
in just three weeks. Jack Hall, played by Dennis Quaid is the film’s hero. He is a
paleoclimatologist and with his two colleagues, Frank and Jason are extracting ice
cores when the ice break-up commences. Jack dramatically saves his ice cores.
Later we see Jack presenting his hypothesis of abrupt climate shift ago at a global
climate change conference. His hypothesis is based on the disruption of the North
Atlantic’s saltwater driven ocean circulation and caused an age referred to as
Younger Dryas some 11 000 years ago. Disruption of this system will stop the Gulf
Stream, a warm water current, from reaching northwestern Europe. Without this
warming water northwestern Europe would be considerably colder than it is today.
This could trigger northern-hemisphere wide ice age. Jack theory uses an extreme
low pressure storm (not dissimilar to a hurricane) that draws super-cooled air from the
upper atmosphere to trigger an ice age. This event can theoretically occur during an
overall warming period of the earth. The audience is mostly skeptical of Jack’s
presentation. In the audience is US Vice-president Becker (a character alarmingly
similar to Dick Cheney) who responds that economic systems of the industrialized
world are “every bit as fragile as the environment”. Nevertheless, New Delhi where
the conference is being held, is experiencing ominously strange weather. Jack’s
presentation does find favour with Dr Terry Rapson (Hedland Climate Research
Center, Scotland). They establish scientific contact. Concurrently the cities of Tokyo
and Los Angeles are experiencing highly disruptive weather in the form of giant
hailstones and numerous tornadoes respectively. Roland Emmerich, with a hint of
irony, dramatizes this. Tornados reduce the Hollywood sign and Capitol Records
Tower into piles of rubble.
On returning home Dr Terry Rapson is notified that two weather buoys in the North
Atlantic are reporting significant drops in surface sea temperatures. When more
weather buoys report similar results Dr. Rapson realizes they are not malfunctioning.
He immediately contacts Jack requesting an analysis of this data using the
paleoclimatological model presented at the conference. Dr Rapson suspects that the
unusually severe weather is a precursor to a super-storm that could trigger a new ice
age for the northern hemisphere. Jack pleads with his boss for access to NOAA’s
super-powerful mainframe computer to analyze Dr Rapson’s data. The results of
these models astound the scientists with a prediction that an ice age could be triggered
in days. Based on these results Jack tries to persuade the Vice-president Becker to
start a full-scale evacuation.
Storyline
The advancing climatic events are a background to the unfolding of personal dramas.
Jack’s genius son Sam (played by Jake Gyllenhaal) and his class mates (including a
girl called Laura played by Emmy Rossum that Sam fancies) have flown to New
York. They are to participate in a scholastic competition. The super-storm hits
Manhattan Island and they all take refuge in New York’s Public Library. The city is
deluged by a tidal wave with the arrival of the storm. Sam lets his father know that
they are safe but almost drowns in the rising water. Earlier Laura had rendered
assistance to a distressed mother and her child. While helping she got a deep gash to
her leg which becomes septic. Sam braves the weather and wolves to get medicine
from an abandoned Russian tanker. The tanker had earlier been seen rather bizarrely
floating down Fifth Avenue.
Meanwhile at NOAA Headquarters in Washington Jack is arguing for an evacuation
of the northern US states. Eventually the severity of the storm prompts the US
Government into action. Jack’s ex-wife and Sam’s mother Lucy (played by Sela
Ward) is a medical doctor attending a young boy suffering from leukemia and
dutifully remains but is eventually safely relocated. Many Americans are seen fleeing
across the border into Mexico to escape the approaching storm. There are three superstorms developing over North America, Siberia and northern Europe. The later sadly
claims the life of Dr. Rapson and his fellow scientists. These events are meanwhile
being observed by an orbiting NASA spacecraft. The three astronauts observe in a
God-like way the wrath of nature as she revenges humans for their disregard of the
environment.
Jack with Frank and Jason, his assistants, attempt to rescue Sam. Meanwhile Sam, his
mates, and remaining members of the public are reduced to burning library books to
keep warm. During Jack’s heroic rescue bid Frank sacrifices himself to save Jack and
Jason from almost certain death. Eventually Jack reaches New York’s Public Library,
ably assisted by Jason. Jack, although a scientist, is unable to navigate using a GPS.
While many Americans are successfully evacuated, the US president and his
cavalcade are not so lucky. Mexico has granted fleeing Americans refugee status.
The US Government has temporary residence while being environmentally exiled and
Becker becomes president. The irony that the most powerful and industrialized nation
of the world is needing the assistance of Mexico, a developing nation, is a film
highlight. Another highlight is when Becker acknowledges he was wrong about
pushing economic growth at the expense of the environment. Jack having rescued his
son and the other people in New York gets himself rescued when the worst of the
storm is over. The dramatic effects of the storm leave most of North America under
a new ice cap. This prompted the astronauts to remark that they had never seen the
earth so clear.
Entertainment value
Despite (or possibly because) of being a scientist with research interests in global
warming and ecological sustainability I enjoyed the film. The events depicted are
fictional. Nevertheless the film promotes general public awareness on issues of global
climate change. Although entertaining the acting was somewhat mediocre. Dennis
Quaid did a competent job as the lead actor paleoclimatologist Jack Hall. I greatly
enjoyed Ian Holm as Dr. Terry Rapson and Kenneth Welsh as Vice President Becker.
Otherwise, it was a largely forgettable performance from Jake Gyllenhaal as Sam
Hall, Emmy Rossum as Laura Chapman, and Sela Ward as Dr. Lucy Hall. The film
does is deservedly the 38th top grossing film of all time with revenue of
US$542,771,772. Interestingly, the production was mostly filmed in Montreal. This
is the highest grossing Hollywood production filmed in Canada.
Story’s plausibility
This is a fictional story. The film greatly dramatized the issue of climate change.
Consequently there is a need to discuss accuracy of events depicted in the film.
The hypothesis that an increase in freshwater from polar melting causing a shutdown
of the Gulf Stream and onset of an ice age has scientific. It would, however, be a
gradual process lasting decades.
Hurricanes are generated over large, seasonably-warmed water bodies e.g. Gulf of
Mexico. Hurricanes do not form over land masses such as Siberia. Hurricanes are not
accompanied by snow or sleet. The only exception is hurricane Bonnie (1998). There
is no evidence that any cyclonic storm could draw super-cooled upper-atmospheric
air. As air descends it warms by 0.6 degrees C for each 100 metre drop. Consequently
descending air in a hurricane would greatly increase the air temperatures preventing
super-cooling.
The sizes of the super-storms depicted in the film are impossible. Further, an ice age
could not develop so quickly. Most snow storms are short-lived and restricted to high
latitudes. When they descend to lower latitudes it is in association with a polar low
pressure cell. These events cause localized storms. Paleoclimatologists have debated
abrupt climatic events. Those supporting this theory are mostly paleontologists. This
is a process measured in decades.
The size of waves and rise in sea-level that advances on Manhattan Island could not
be generated by atmospheric conditions alone. Tsunamis (tidal waves) are caused by
underwater earthquakes or volcanic eruptions.
Super-cooled air freezing the fuel of helicopters is unknown. Such aircraft routinely
fly in the upper troposphere where such super-cooled air is supposed to occur.
The aggressiveness of the wolves that Sam has to deal with in obtaining Laura’s
medicine is dramatized. There is no confirmed case of a wolf killing a human in
North America.
Film’s message
The science depicted in the film is fictional. Nevertheless the film has important
messages. These include the need for political will-power to deal with carbon
emissions that are linked to global warming. The film highlights that global warming
can produces unexpected consequence. We are in effect conducting a global
experiment on our own life support system. Finally, even the world’s largest and
most powerful nation may need the assistance of a less developed neighbour in the
event of natural disasters. Although not everyone believes in human contribution to
global climate change, a precautionary principle to reduce use of non-renewable
energy should be engaged. Organizations like the Competitive Enterprise Institute
(http://www.cei.org) and the Ayn Rand Institute (http://www.aynrand.org) that attack
environmentalism are selfishly pursuing profit and individualism respectively.
Consequently they are little more than new-age terrorists seeking to holding the
sustainability of the global commons to ransom. We are living in one world and we
need a collective responsibility for it. Each person needs to act individually as planet
steward to safeguard a healthy earth for future generations to inherit. In this aspect
the film is admirable. It delivers a serious message wrapped in an entertaining story
accompanied by dramatic visual effects.