1 2 Appendix S1. Study area and data collection We used data from a long-term study of breeding snow geese at La Pérouse Bay ‘LPB’ and 3 the larger Cape Churchill Peninsula ‘CCP’ region in northern Manitoba (58º44’ N, 94º28’ W). 4 The study area is located in the southern part of the species’ breeding range, and is also used as a 5 temporary staging area for birds migrating to more northern colonies in spring. The local 6 population grew from 2,000 pairs in the 1960s to > 50,000 pairs in 2011 (Rockwell et al. 2011). 7 As the population grew, the nesting area expanded along the eastern coast of the CCP as well as 8 several kilometers inland from the coastal LPB saltwater marsh. 9 10 Left panel: Progressive expansion of the lesser snow goose nesting colony from 1973 to 2008 11 from the historic colony at La Pérouse Bay to the Cape Churchill Peninsula. Right panel: zone 1 12 encompasses the coastal saltmarsh that the original nesting colony used for brood rearing (i.e., 13 the coastal saltmarsh of La Pérouse Bay); zone 2 encompasses the inland zone of freshwater 1 14 marsh adjacent to zone 1; zone 3 is located in the north-east corner of the CCP; and zone 4 15 extends south of zone 3 where most of the goslings are now raised. Note: the gray area between 16 Hudson Bay and the landmass is the extent of the fluctuating saltmarsh. 17 Goose families dispersing away from traditional brood-rearing grounds initially stayed within 18 the confines of the coastal salt marshes (RFR unpublished data). Since the 1990s, family groups 19 have been using freshwater marshes (RFR unpublished data), but several lines of evidence 20 suggest that even under changing conditions, snow goose broods still show strong seasonal 21 fidelity to a particular area and habitat type. Goslings encountered during our annual banding 22 efforts were 5-6 weeks old. Most of the within-season habitat dispersal is likely to occur in the 23 first 7-10 days after hatching, after which broods move relatively little (Mainguy et al. 2006). 24 Mellor and Rockwell (2006) found that goslings collected at inland freshwater habitat have 25 substantially lower loads of caecal nematodes than do goslings collected in coastal habitats. This 26 is consistent with the hypothesis that the population is structured in coastal and inland segments. 27 In addition, Winiarski et al. (2012) used stable isotopes in forage plants and gosling tissue 28 samples taken at regular intervals during brood rearing to determine how gosling resource use 29 differed between habitats, changed during growth, and affected gosling growth rate and body 30 size. They showed that goslings throughout brood rearing consistently used freshwater marsh or 31 tidal marsh, with no evidence of large-scale movement or diet changes during gosling growth 32 (Winiarski et al. in press). Based on this evidence, we are comfortable assigning each gosling to 33 a habitat zone that reflects where it foraged during development. 34 Every year in late July or early August, when the adults are molting and before the young can 35 fly, adults and goslings are rounded up, aged, sexed, and banded. Birds are marked with uniquely 36 numbered USFWS aluminum leg bands and previously marked birds are recorded as recaptures. 2 37 Body mass (to nearest gram) and tarsus length (to nearest mm) were measured during banding 38 drives for a sample of goslings intermittently between 1978 and 2005 (measurements not taken 39 in 1992, 1993, 2002, 2003, and 2004; banding did not take place in 1996 and 1997). Sample 40 sizes for female goslings across habitat zones and years are presented here: 41 Here, we used data on gosling captures from 1978 to 2005 for available years and 42 information on subsequent recaptures and hunter recoveries from 1978 to 2008, since we wanted 43 to estimate survival for known-age individuals (i.e., individuals marked as goslings). During this 44 time period we banded and measured morphological variables for 8086 goslings (4125 females 45 and 3961 males). 46 Sex differences in gosling development are significant (Cooch et al. 1996, Cooch et al. 47 1997); we decided to restrict all analyses to females because they are the philopatric sex for 48 which the effect of variability in gosling body condition on juvenile survival later in life can be 49 assessed. Because males are not philopatric to their natal breeding grounds, we only had 11 50 recaptures for males marked as goslings. Relying on dead recoveries provided too little 51 information to estimate male juvenile survival since only 5.2% of the males banded, measured, 52 and released as goslings were recovered dead. 53 Thorough descriptions of the study site, field methods, and data collection protocols are 54 provided by Davies et al. (1988) and Cooke et al. (1995). 55 Literature cited 56 Cooch EG, Lank DB, Cooke F (1996) Intraseasonal variation in the development of sexual size 57 dimorphism in a precocial bird: evidence from the lesser snow goose. Journal of Animal 58 Ecology, 65, 439-450 3 59 Cooch EG, Lank DB, Robertson RJ, Cooke F (1997) Effects of parental age and environmental 60 change on offspring sex-ratio in a precocial bird. Journal of Animal Ecology, 66, 189-202. 61 62 63 64 Cooke F, Rockwell RF, Lank DB (1995) the Snow Geese of La Pérouse Bay. In: Natural selection in the wild. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK Davies JC, Rockwell RF, Cooke F (1988) Body-size variation and fitness components in Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens). The Auk, 105, 639-648 65 Mainguy J, Gauthier G, Giroux J-F, Bêty J (2006) Gosling growth and survival in relation to 66 brood movements in Greater Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens atlantica). The Auk, 123(4), 67 1077-1089 68 69 70 Mellor AA, Rockwell RF (2006) Habitat Shifts and Parasite Loads of Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens). Écoscience, 13, 497-502 Rockwell RF, Gormezano LJ, Koons DN (2011) Trophic matches and mismatches: can polar 71 bears reduce the abundance of nesting snow geese in western Hudson Bay? Oikos, 120(5), 696- 72 709 73 Winiarski KJ, McWilliams SR, Rockwell RF (In Press) Rapid environmental degradation in a 74 subarctic ecosystem influences resource use of a keystone avian herbivore. Journal of Animal 75 Ecology, 81(5):1132-42 4