Climate Change.
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Contribution to climate change is varied (industrial and non-industrial).
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Climate change will test science-policy, global environmental agreements,
the economics of response, political, and morality of individual “life style
choices”.
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Evolution of climate change (Kowolak 1993)
1- The discoveries accumulated over a number of years.
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acid rain (century ago)
climate change (75 years)
Ozone depletion (over decade)
Testing of hypothesis, observation, and publication.
2- The breakthrough came by accident.
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historical trends and monitoring
advanced in telemetry
3- Scientist learns through networks of communication and
experimentation.
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Discoveries are made by various scientists
Multidisciplinary work and communication
4- Most of the science was only partially founded by governments
- Megabuck science tends to follow great discoveries
- Science could influence policy
Scenarios of global economic and climate change
1. Nature corn Ucopia:
A belief in smooth exponential growth where nature unfolds her riches
in response to human imagination, innovation and competitive
advantage.
2. Nature anarchic
Nature is unpredictable and always likely to thump humanity on the
head. Localize and small-scale can create equilibria.
3. Nature balanced
Logistical and rational approaches to understanding and adaptation by
seeking to “know how”.
4. Nature resilient
Nature is indestructible, though always subject to a violent and
catastrophic alteration.
5. Nature evolving
Nature co-evolve with human and create genuine partnership
The Science of Climate chantge
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Product of interdisciplinary natural systems over the past 20 years.
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Revolutions in (communications, t ravel, research budget …etc.)
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Basic science of greenhouse effect is well known.
temperature is +15C. (See box 7.1 page 174).
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The history of climate change can be studied in the paleobotanical record of
changing vegetation and by inference, through the concentration of CO2
trapped in ancient ice sheet (Figure 7.1 page 177).
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Other natural influences such as E1 Nino, volcanic activities and alternation
in erosive processes affecting aerosol and dust concentrations.
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Solar radiation and sunspot resulting in higher level of stratospheric ozone
formation. With 10-12 year sunspot cycle an increase of 0.1% brighter.
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Huge transfer of CO2 in and out of organic life in the sea and on land (Table
7.3). Human caused emission of CO2 amount to 71.+ 1.1 gigatonnes carbon
annually. Ocean absorb about 2 G+C, Forest around 0.5 G+C, and the biota
generally some 1.3 G+C. Variability of error due to lack of robust
monitoring and politics (Kyoto Agreement).
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1995 second assessment report indicate the cooling effect of aerosols of
sulphate caused by the emission of Sox from industrial processes.
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IPCC working group conclusions (need to know about).
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Three key variables for future scientific analysis.
Average global
1-
The radiative forcing effects of particular economic processes and
pollution.
2-
The capacity of biogeochemical sequestration in oceans and terrestrial
biota as altered by global warning.
3-
The sensitivity of the climate system to both these processes, and to
human induced responses that may accelerate or dampen such change.