Earth Science Research Results
This proposal will use NASA and NOAA remote sensing sea surface temperature
products and cloud free high resolution daily products derived from them. For historical
reconstructions, we will use ICOADS sea surface temperature and products derived from
it. We will also use MODIS land surface temperature products. For climate scenario
forecasts we will use output from NASA, NOAA, and Hadley Centre models archived at
the WCRP CMIP3 site on the Earth System Grid. For short-term forecasts and early
warning of threats to populations, we will use NOAA weather and wave forecast data
and Xtide (www.flaterco.com/xtide) as input to our intertidal temperature model. We
will use the NASA JPL DE-405 ephemeris in conjunction with Xtide to calculate decadal
scale and continental scale risk of intertidal exposure to high temperature conditions.
Organization
NASA
Data Source
MODIS
Data Type
SST
Archive
JPL
NASA
AMSR-E
SST
JPL
NASA NOAA
AVHRR
SST
JPL
UCAR/NCAR
UK Met
ICOADS
OSTIA
SST
SST
ucar.org
JPL
IFREMER
ODYSSEA
SST
JPL
Danish Met Inst
DMI_OI
SST
JPL
Hadley Ctr
NOAA
HadISST
GFS/NAM
hadobs.org
NCEP
NOAA
NASA
Wave Watch III
GISS-Model E
SST
Solar Rad
Long Wave Rad
Humidity
Air Temp
Wind Speed
Atm Pressure
Precipitation
Wave height
SST
NOAA
GFDL- CM2.X
SST
ESG
UK Met
Hadley CM3
SST
ESG
NASA
DE-405
ephemeris
Xtide
Solar elevation
Solar azimuth
Tide Height
JPL
Flaterco
NCEP
ESG
Flaterco.com
Use
Nowcast
Hindcast
Nowcast
Hindcast
Nowcast
Hindcast
Hindcast
Nowcast
Forecast
Nowcast
Forecast
Forecast
Hindcast
Forecast
Forecast
Climate
Scenario
Climate
Scenario
Climate
Scenario
Risk
Analysis
Forecast
Risk Anal
Technical Approach
In this project, we propose to provide tools for evaluating sites for inclusion in GEO
BON based on quantitative sensitivities of sites to climate change, and to provide tools for
integrating satellite and in-situ observations and modeling with biodiversity measurements at
established sites. We also propose to provide risk and early-warning assessment tools for key
habitats. We propose to focus on coastal marine habitats, and on ecosystem engineer species,
whose successes or failures control the dynamics of the coastal ecosystem and its biodiversity.
These coastal habitats are extensively used for aquaculture in many parts of the world, and serve
reservoirs of biodiversity and as nursery grounds for commercially important species.
Tools for evaluating coastal sites for inclusion in the GEO BON.
Historical change in climatic
conditions can serve as an index of suitability
of sites for studies of biodiversity response to
climate change. If biodiversity is partially
controlled by climate, change should be most
easily detected at locations where change has
historically been rapid. Because of the
differences in oceanography among coasts, not
all sites are good candidates for such studies.
We propose to use the ICOADS ship of
opportunity data set to reconstruct worldwide
coastal sea surface temperatures for the past
century in order to establish the baseline rates
of change in ocean climate. Point data are
transformed into monthly 4km resolution
maps using a 12-point inverse distance
squared weighting method (Lima et al 2007).
We have generated maps of this sort for the
period 1900-2007 on the US east and west
coasts, and the continental Atlantic coast of
Europe from France to Morocco (Fig 2).
Fig 2. February sea surface temperature on the
coast of Europe 1900-2007 from ICOADS.
Horizontal lines are at latitudes 30°, 35°, 40°,
45°, 50° N, corresponding to map. Contours are
at 2°C increments from 4° to 18°C.
These maps are used to generate contour plots of climate as a function of position along
the coastline on a centennial time scale, and measures of the rates of climate change as a function
of geography (Fig 3). These rates of change provide a quantitative measure of the suitability of
coastal sites for studies of response of populations and ecosystems to climate change. Sites with
low rates of climate change are unsuitable for such studies. The figures represent the centennial
rates of change of sea surface temperature plotted by month and geographic location in Europe,
the US west coast, and the US east coast. Blue and magenta colors represent cooling, and other
colors represent warming. The coast of Europe is clearly a mosaic of sites with different rates of
change interspersed among one another. Most obvious changes are rapid warming in the Bay of
Biscay in summer, and rapid warming in the English Channel between October and December.
Other locations in Europe show much lower rates of change. Therefore climate effects on
biodiversity would be relatively easily detected in the lower Bay of Biscay and the English
Channel, which should be focal areas for the study of biodiversity responses to climate change in
Europe, especially in species affected by warming winter conditions. On the US west coast, there
has been rapid warming in central Oregon in May and June, and rapid warming south of Point
US
West
US
East
Europe
Figure 3. Rates of change of sea surface
temperature 1900-2007, plotted by month and
geographic location. Blue/magenta colors
represent cooling.
Conception from March to July. These
areas appear to be more sensitive to
climate change than other areas of the
coast, and there should be stronger
biodiversity changes expected in these
areas than elsewhere, especially in species
affected by warming summer conditions..
On the US east coast, there has been rapid
winter warming in the mid Atlantic states,
rapid winter cooling in winter south of
Cape Hatteras, and little change
elsewhere. On the US east coast, there
should be much stronger climatebiodiversity effects south of Cape Hatteras
than north. These results indicate that all
locations a clearly not equal in sensitivity
to climate change, and that studies of the
effects of climate change on biodiversity
need to be targeted to locations where
climate is changing the most. We propose
to expand our coverage to the entire world
ocean coastline to examine the sensitivity
of all coastal locations to global climate
change, as a means to evaluate the
suitability of coastal sites for inclusion in
GEO BON monitoring efforts.
Tools for integrating satellite and in-situ observations and modeling with biodiversity
measurements in GEO BON
Risk and Early-Warning Assessment Tools for GEO BON