Population / Development / Environment
Gayl Ness
1/8/05
My chapter will follow my lectures rather closely. It starts with population growth, links it to economic development, and shows how the two together drive environmental change. The emphasis here is on the interconnections between the three, focusing on the science and the measurement and meaning of these three elements. The least developed is the environment side, since that is covered so well elsewhere.
Population: I begin with the past 1000 years showing the long period of slow growth giving way to the exponential growth of the past 300 years. I introduce the idea of the demographic transition (the move from high to low birth and death rates) to provide a simple but powerful concept on which we can hang many important observations. The transition traces the move from rural, agrarian society with much illness, illiteracy and little geographic movement to modern urban, industrial society with higher levels of health and generally higher quality of life.
Next I show that the modern world has known two demographic transitions: the past and present. These show differences between the western industrial societies (the UN’s More
Development Regions), and the rest of the world, the Less Developed Regions. Here we also see the impact of major medical technologies only in the last half century, which has made the modern transition much more rapid than in the past. It is also a transition with massive numbers.
This section in a bit of a primer, since I introduce some basic demographic terms (CBR,
CDR, TFR IMR , etc.) This is also a section in which we can introduce both new policy directions, and some intense political conflicts over policy.
Development: is also something of a primer. I introduce the concept of economic development, go through its measures, especially in national income accounting, and show both the strengths and weaknesses of these measures. I then use the measures to examine the history of economic development over the past century, and especially the past half century. I use a series of country comparisons to show how countries have fared in development.
Next I examine the correlates of development, especially in the increase of the quality of life: health and education rise, giving people greater opportunities to use and develop their unique talents. Here, too, we can examine some basic policy issues and debates about how development is best promoted and how its benefits can be maximized and its costs reduced. Globalization raises its head as a major debate today.
1

Environment: I begin with macro measures of carbon and sulfur emissions as the major tracers of the population-development drivers of environmental change. From global measures I go to individual country comparisons to show how advances in technology and specific policies can exacerbate or mitigate emissions. I have not before drawn attention to the health aspects of this type of environmental change, but propose to do so in this chapter.
Throughout I introduce readers to web sources for the data I use and they can use for their own analyses.
On issues of format ? the boxology debate ? I am quite open. I think boxes can enhance a text, and know they can also detract.
Question: should the chapters end with questions and exercise suggestions?
2