ECON 650: Business Economics and Forecasting:
Quantitative Decision Technologies
Course Information Web Site:
http://home.ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/ECON/COURSEECON.HTM
Professor:
Dr. Hossein Arsham, harsham@ubalt.edu
Course Description: Basic and advanced skills of applied regression methodology,
optimization, and strategy. Statistical and analytical techniques are applied across traditional
business disciplines to develop the technical competencies necessary for managers in today's
competitive global business environment.
Textbook: Applied Management Science, Lawrence J., Jr., and B. Pasternack, Wiley, 2002.
Computer Package: The WinQSB, the Windows version of the QSB (Quantitative Systems for
Business) software package. This version runs under CD/ROM Windows.
Grading Criteria: Reading the lecture notes, and Reading and problem solving (20%), Computer
implementation with commentaries (20%), First exam (30%), and Final exam (30%).
Grading System: (90-100%): A, (80-89%): B+, (70-79%): B, (65-69%): C+, (60-64%): C,
(< 59%): F
Weekly Homework: For the chapters to be read and HW assignment visit weekly the Course
Information site.
Your assignments will be collected and graded. Your homework assignment consists of two
parts:
1. Reading the lecture notes, and Reading and problem solving from your textbook (100
points).
2. Computer implementation with commentaries, using the WinQSB, E-labs, or Excel, since
without computer package one cannot perform any realistic data-based decision making
(100 points).
Homework Due Date: Meeting deadlines and even sending me material before deadlines are
very important, since you will be engaging in group learning activities where time is crucial. So
you should make every effort to complete your work on time. Therefore, late homework
submissions carry no credit at all.
You do not have to type your homework assignments; you may save some times in spending
more on learning than typing. In this case please, please hand-in your eligible homework on time.
Course Ingredients: The Course Ingredient Components Include:
1.
2.
3.
A set of Technical Keywords and Phrases,
A Collection of Problem-Solving Methodologies, and
Managerial Interpretations and their Implications.
Learning Objects: There are varieties of sources in helping you to understand the foundation of
decision-making. Each of the following items provides you with different perspective on our
weekly topics. Textbook, Lecture Notes, Live Lectures & Handouts, Computer Assisted
Learning.
Course Structure: Your course materials are divided into the following ordered topics:
1. The Foundation of Decision-Making Process: When one talks of "foundations", usually it
includes historical, psychological, and logical aspects of the subject.
2. Deterministic Modeling: Linear Optimization: This part will be presented in the context of
a production and operations management applications with economics implications of the
optimal decision.
3. Probabilistic Modeling Tools: Probability and statistics for modeling risky decisions.
4. Analysis of Risky Decisions: Applications to optimal portfolio selections in investment
decision together with its risk assessment are provided.
5. Unification of Probabilistic and Deterministic Modeling: Two-person Zero-sum games
with applications to optimal portfolio selections in investment decision together with its risk
assessment are provided.
6. Business Forecasting and Regression Analysis: It is intended to help you do a better job of
anticipating and hence a better job of managing the uncertainty by using effective forecasting
techniques.
How to Access the Lecture Notes and Course Information Web Sites: The Links to both the
lecture notes and course information is available on the first page of my Home Page (the second
course therein). To access my home page, use any search engine and type Arsham in the searchbox, and then click on Dr. Arsham’s Home Page.