NERIP
Study into retail and leisure flows
May 2006
Property Consultancy
Embankment House
Electric Avenue
Nottingham
NG80 1EH
Tel
0115 968 5087
Fax 0115 968 5003
Email jonathan.riches@uk.experian.com
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................4
INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................4
STUDY INTO RETAIL AND LEISURE FLOWS .....................................................................................4
MARKET TOWNS ...........................................................................................................................5
RETAIL FLOWS ..............................................................................................................................5
RETAIL PARKS...............................................................................................................................6
LEISURE FLOWS ............................................................................................................................6
ABOUT NERIP .............................................................................................................................6
2
METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................8
DATA SOURCES: WHERE BRITAIN SHOPS AND BIG NIGHT OUT ....................................................8
CATCHMENT BANDING ..................................................................................................................9
THE USE OF POSTAL GEOGRAPHY ................................................................................................10
REPORTING CENTRE PENETRATION: TOWN TERRITORIES ............................................................11
3
SUMMARY – COVERAGE OF RETAIL AND LEISURE DESTINATIONS.............13
LIST OF MARKET TOWNS COVERED .............................................................................................13
LIST OF TOWN CENTRES COVERED ..............................................................................................13
LIST OF RETAIL PARKS COVERED ................................................................................................13
LIST OF LEISURE DESTINATIONS COVERED ..................................................................................13
LIST OF CITY REGIONS COVERED .................................................................................................13
4
MARKET TOWN GROCERY FLOWS ...........................................................................14
OVERVIEW – GROCERY RETAIL MARKET SHARE PRODUCT ........................................................15
COMMENTARY ............................................................................................................................17
MAPS SHOWING GROCERY SPEND FROM MARKET TOWNS IN THE NORTH EAST ...........................19
TABLE SHOWING FLOWS FROM TOWN TO GROCERY STORE..........................................................27
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TOWN CENTRE SHOPPING ...........................................................................................29
DESTINATION-BASED CATCHMENTS ............................................................................................30
COMMENTARY ............................................................................................................................30
TABLES AND MAPS OF ORIGIN BASED FLOWS ..............................................................................45
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RETAIL PARKS .................................................................................................................72
DESTINATION-BASED CATCHMENTS ............................................................................................72
COMMENTARY ............................................................................................................................73
TABLES AND MAPS OF ORIGIN BASED FLOWS ..............................................................................84
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LEISURE TRIPS ...............................................................................................................111
COMMENTARY ..........................................................................................................................111
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8
CITY REGIONS ................................................................................................................118
DEFINITION ...............................................................................................................................118
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APPENDICES ....................................................................................................................122
ABOUT EXPERIAN .....................................................................................................................122
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APPENDIX – DEFINITION OF MARKET TOWNS USED ...................................123
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1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Introduction
1.1
Understanding City Regions is important to understanding the dynamics of the
economy in the region. City regions are characterised by flows (travel patterns)
into and out of them, and these flows differ depending on the dataset / activity
being monitored. Good data already exists about commuting flows, but there is
less good data available about the flows to retail and leisure facilities. This study
should inform the Northern Way agenda, Culture North East, and strategic work
relating to economic and spatial issues.
Study into retail and leisure flows
1.2
The study presents data from a range of Experian surveys that has enabled an
analysis of flows from home to leisure and home to retail facilities. The data is
presented in maps of catchment areas and tables of proportional flows. In most
cases the data is based on surveys from 2004 and 2005. In some cases we have
used 2003 data to increase the response rate, and we have been clear in which
cases this has been applied. The analysis has been carried out using postal
geography, either at postal sector level (NE16 1) or postal district level (NE16).
We have summarised the flows at Town Territory level, a proprietary level of
geography built to bridge a gap between postal and administrative boundaries.
The retail and leisure destinations chosen have been dictated by (1) the market
towns report and (2) those centres with the strongest response rate.
1.3
The report covers

grocery flows in 14 market towns

comparison goods catchments/flows for 22 retail centres

comparison goods catchments for 3 combined retail regions


flows and catchments of 15 retail parks
flows and catchments of 10 leisure destinations
and flows are supplied for 44 contiguous regions in the North East.
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Market towns
1.4
In most of the market towns, retention of convenience goods spend is high. The
level of leakage (proportion of grocery trips gravitating outside the town) is rarely
above half.
1.5
The dominance of Morrisons is apparent where one of their stores is within reach.
In almost all other cases Co-op stores take the largest flows of spend.
Sainsbury’s and Marks & Spencer are not listed as destinations in any of the
market towns, representative of their low overall penetration of the North East.
Retail flows
1.6
The catchment areas mostly display a limited level of overlap when compared. In
other words, shopping habits are distinct, with limited outer areas of overlapping
penetration we typically see in national catchments.
1.7
We see in a number of examples shoppers willing to cross a motorway in order to
reach their destination. Such behaviour is unusual nationally, with few people
willing to cross such a perceived boundary.
1.8
The lack of shopping choice between Carlisle and Newcastle gives rise to some
of the largest catchment areas in England, not just from Carlisle (ranked top) and
Newcastle (second in the country, ranked above centres such as York, Norwich,
Lincoln, Exeter and Hereford) but also from the smaller market towns and the
Metro Centre.
1.9
Newcastle’s catchment extends two thirds of the way to Carlisle westwards, and
as far as Berwick to the north, with an area of approximately 7,000 square
kilometres generating 90 per cent of the visits. Penetration is much stronger
north of the centre which is where the 80% catchment covers. The area south of
the city has a higher level of leakage to alternative shopping destinations.
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Retail parks
1.10 Metro Retail Park (Ikea, Asda, Toys R Us, JJB) has the largest catchment within
the report, extending as far as Whitehaven on the west coast, 150 kilometres
away and a two and a half hour drive. This reach is typical of an Ikea catchment,
defined by the location of other Ikea stores in Glasgow, Edinburgh and Leeds.
1.11 Other retail parks also have extensive catchments, including Team Valley Retail
World, Teesside Retail Park (with a strong retention of its core catchment) and
Kingston Park Centre/Belvedere Retail Park.
Leisure flows
1.12 Newcastle City Centre’s leisure catchment reaches northwards to Berwick and
westwards two thirds of the way to Carlisle. South of the centre, penetration
drops off rapidly. This contradicts modelled catchment areas based simply on the
vitality of leisure anchors (quality/quantity) and is indicative of the high level of
loyalty for leisure trips in the North East.
1.13 In most cases, leisure catchment areas are localised and do not reflect the wider
retail offer and catchments seen in that section. Commonly, the core penetration
(50 per cent of visitors) come from a concentrated area, covering only residents
of that town. Only the holiday destination Whitley Bay opposes the trend for more
localised catchments than town’s retail equivalents.
About NERIP
1.14 NERIP (North East Regional Information Partnership) is the regional observatory
for North East England. NERIP is a partnership of over 60 organisations and is
lead by a small Executive Team which operates under governance arrangements
determined by its four lead partners
1.15 NERIP’s objectives are:

to coordinate the provision of and access to shared data and intelligence
across the region’s public, private and voluntary sector organisations
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


to increase the coverage and compatibility of regional datasets and secure
significant efficiencies in regional information collection and collation
to stimulate the establishment of a stronger and more inclusive network of
data and intelligence providers in the region
to work with regional and national partners to influence information-related
issues of regional significance.
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2
METHODOLOGY
Data sources: Where Britain Shops and Big Night Out
2.1
We have based this study on Experian’s proprietary datasets formed from
shopper and leisure surveys (Where Britain Shops and Big Night Out). The
surveys are carried out as part of Experian’s regular lifestyle questionaire
programme. They are continual and canvas consumers on their retail spend
patterns for comparison and convenience goods and leisure trips. They now
generate approximately 1.0 million responses annually across the UK, using
lifestyle surveys through magazine inserts, target mail and doordrops.
2.2
Where Britain Shops and Big Night Out are used by many of the UK’s retailers
and property investors and developers, as well as public sector clients who
purchase data through our Goad town plan business.
2.3
The surveys reveal distinct trading patterns and overlaps – especially out of town
and in town centres where public transport is a significant determinant of the
catchment – that are not revealed when notional drivetime catchments or
synthesised models are used. Such models might provide smoother catchment
areas and are useful in the case of what-if analysis can counter distinct localised
trading patterns. This is especially true in the case of the North East where
shopper loyalty often overrides convenience and defies modelled “attraction” and
“vitality” scores used in gravity modelling. The raw responses from our surveys
have been weighted using Experian’s consumer lifestyle classification Mosaic UK
to take account of people’s likelihood to fill in lifestyle questionnaires, but have
not been modelled further.
2.4
The specific questions relevant to this study are:

Shopping (Where Britain Shops) - Where do you shop most often for nonfood goods like clothes, shoes, jewellery?

Shopping (Where Britain Shops out of town) – Which retail park do you
visit most often?

Shopping (Grocery Market Share) – Where do you shop for food and
groceries?
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
Leisure (Big Night Out) - Which town centre do you normally visit for a ‘big
night out’? (Visiting pubs, restaurants or clubs)
2.5
While such questions cannot always adequately assess the breadth or
penetration of a centre’s catchment, we have highlighted in the text situations
where we believe the responses are not reflective. In such cases, individual
surveys would be needed to confirm the catchment. However, in the vast
majority of cases the surveys reflect reality and are a much more cost effective
way to measure catchments and flows. They have been validated on a national
basis by comparing responses with observed customer spend patterns provided
by retailers and leisure clients with whom Experian has a close collaborative
relationship.
2.6
We have aggregated the responses since 2004 to generate our retail and leisure
flows for the North East. Our 2004/5 source response count is 25,000 for Where
Britain Shops from within the North East, and 6,500 responses from our Big Night
Out survey. In some cases we have aggregated this data with 2003 responses to
generate sufficient volumes to map catchments. This is identified in the text.
Catchment banding
2.7
Our catchment area maps are segmented according to how important each area
is to the centre. They are colour coded to show the relative penetration of
different areas. The inner band (‘Primary’ or ‘Core’) represents the area with the
highest penetration from which 50 per cent of the shoppers come from. The
middle band (‘Secondary’) shows the next strongest areas of penetration such
that it represents the next 30 per cent of shoppers (that is, the 50-80 per cent
band). The outer band (‘Tertiary’) shows the weakest area of penetration
representing 10 per cent of shoppers (the 80-90 per cent band). As the banding
reaches 100 per cent, catchment areas increase rapidly and have much less
relevance to retailers and leisure operators.
2.8
The catchment area maps do not show the absolute level of penetration of
individual areas, since it would not be possible to band the maps consistently.
Instead, the supporting tables should be used.
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The use of postal geography
2.9
The flow analysis in this report has been carried out using postal geography to
map catchment areas, rather than using administrative boundaries. This makes
analysis of survey data much easier, since:

survey respondents usually know their postcode

the different layers of a postcode (NE, NE14, NE14 1, NE14 1AG) cover a
range of appropriate levels of geography with which to map a catchment
area depending on the level of survey response
2.10 We use postal sectors (as in NE1 1) to collate our survey responses. They form
the finest level of geography that is both significant (enough responses) and
known by most survey respondents. For retail parks, we use postal districts
(NE1) because of the more limited level of response.
2.11 Note that while postal boundaries have been used to map the catchments, the
names given to each postal brick by the Post Office have not been used in any of
the definitions in this report, since none of the layers is comprehensive (for
example, NE and DH represent Newcastle and Durham but the Washington
conurbation is split between the two; NE38 7 and NE37 3 represent Washington
North and South but there is no postal sector definition for Newcastle or Durham).
2.12 In areas of low population, including rural parts of the North East, postal sectors
can have irregular shapes, occasionally concave. An end user of these maps
should check boundary definitions where making assumptions based on the
shape of border areas. Additionally, the presence of these low-density outer
postal sectors in a catchment area may rely on a small number of responses
despite potentially thousands of total responses, since the catchment areas are
mapped according to penetration rather than simply response rate. The user
should not overestimate the inclusion or exclusion of a particular postal brick in
the outer band.
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Reporting centre penetration: Town Territories
2.13 We have summarised the flows (in terms of the proportion of visits to a centre, or
penetration) at Local Town Territory level, a proprietary level of geography built to
bridge a gap between postal and administrative boundaries.
Example showing Town Territories in the North East
2.14 Local Town Territories split the UK into 1131 contiguous areas, each named
according to the significant retail centre it surrounds. The list of centres matches
towns currently mapped by Experian’s Goad retail plan business. It represents
retail areas where there is commercial demand for Goad to produce plans, from
clients who include retailers, shopping centres, developers and local authorities.
The area covers people who live closest to one significant town rather than any
other. It is therefore not dependent on historical local authority boundaries. For
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example, Prudhoe residents are linked to Blaydon rather than Hexham, and
Redcar, Guisborough and Saltburn residents are separated rather than grouped
into Redcar and Cleveland.
2.15 Each Local Town Territory is formed from a set of postal sectors (2.10). The
postal sectors are individually assigned to their nearest Goad retail centre, and
then grouped. Since some retail centres are not covered by Goad, postal sectors
in these towns are assigned to other nearby centres. For example, Amble is not
covered, although Ashington, Morpeth and Alnwick are.
2.16 Because the base geographical brick used to create the Territories is the postal
sector, borders between Territories are irregular rather than straight lines (see
2.12).
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SUMMARY – COVERAGE OF RETAIL AND LEISURE DESTINATIONS
List of market towns covered
Alnwick
Amble
Barnard Castle
Berwick
Crook
Guisborough
Haltwhistle
Hexham
Morpeth
Prudhoe
Rothbury
Seahouses
Stanhope
Wooler
List of town centres covered
Ashington
Berwick
Bishop Auckland
Blyth
Chester-le-Street
Cramlington
Darlington
Durham
Gateshead
Hartlepool
Hexham
Metro Centre
Middlesbrough
Newcastle
North Shields
Peterlee
Redcar
South Shields
Stockton
Sunderland
Wallsend
Washington
Whitley Bay
List of retail parks covered
Berwick – Tweedbank Retail Park
Bishop Auckland – Bob Hardisty Drive
Cramlington – Westmorland Retail Park
Darlington – Darlington Retail Park
Durham – The Arnison Centre
Gateshead – Team Valley Retail World
Gateshead – Metro Retail Park
Hartlepool – Anchor Retail Park
Newcastle – Kingston Park Centre
North Shields – Silverlink Retail Park
Stockton – Portrack Interchange
Stockton – Teesside Retail Park
Sunderland – Hylton Riverside
Sunderland – Pallion Retail Park
Sunderland – Trimdon Street Retail Park
Washington – Washington Retail Park
List of leisure destinations covered
Bishop Auckland
Darlington
Durham
Middlesbrough
Hartlepool
Newcastle
South Shields
Stockton
Sunderland
Whitley Bay
List of city regions covered
Middlesbrough and Stockton
Newcastle and Gateshead
Tyne & Wear
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