Where were/are the jobs
John—this is an addition to what I sent yesterday re labor. A more detailed look at
where the major growth in jobs took place.
GROWTH OF JOBS AND RATES OF GROWTH
1) Using the general categories from the EROP 2009 and total growth in jobs
(and information in the previous note)—there was quite a burst of net job
creation in the 1980s and 1990s—enough to increase the percent of
population in the labor force and the percent actually employed (this
increase, as pointed out previously, was due to women entering the labor
force in large numbers—as male participation rate actually declines).
2) The job category that added the most jobs was “health and education” (which
includes BOTH government and private jobs)—more than 15 million jobs
from 1960 through 2007 (CHART 12 --the first one in the ppt document
called “job category growth”). This was followed by “professional and
business services” with over 14 million, “leisure and hospitality” and “retail
trade” with each adding around 10 million, “financial services” with close to 6
million, and “Construction” with around 4.5 million. The top four of these
categories (health & ed, prof. & business services, leisure and hospitality, and
retail trade) added 59% of total of all the jobs added to the economy from
1960 to 2007 (83 million, or an average of 1.7 million per year. NOTE: in only
about 25% of the years did jobs grow at 3 million or more. And only in the
late 1970s and late 1990s did growth exceed 3 million per year for 3 years in
a row. ).
3) I’ll discuss the job categories (in EROP) that grew the most. In Chart 13 (one
can see:
a. Retail trade employment grows as a pretty straight line, implying that
the percent growth per year in this category is actually declining (see
chart 14). As mentioned previously—there are now more people
employed in “retail trade” than in producing goods.
b. From the early 1980s through the mid-1990s growth in “health and
education” increases more and more rapidly—actually, it’s a fairly
constant rate (percent per year) growth of jobs, around 4.5% per
year. After the mid 1990s this sector continues to grow, but at an
increasingly slower rate.
c. Although “professional & business services” employment grows along
a path similar to employment in “health and education,” it is growing
slower rate in the 1980s (3.5-3.75%), takes a hit in the early 90s
recession, grows rapidly in the late 90s and then starts to crash
beginning with 2003.
d. SO- the rates of growth of employment in top four labor growth
sectors during the 1960 to 2007 period began to decline in the
1970s (retail trade), 1980s (leisure & hospitality), 1990s
(education and health), and early 2000 for financial services.
THUS, all top growth sectors were producing fewer and fewer
jobs before the Great Recession set in.