Professor Cathy Parker
@placemanagement
#HSUK2020
Our partner HSUK2020 towns:
Alsager, Altrincham, Ballymena,
Barnsley, Bristol (St George),
Congleton, Holmfirth, Market
Rasen, Morley and Wrexham
Change in retailer location 2000-11
Out of town
up 50
million
square feet
Town centre
down 46
million
square feet
Department for Transport 2011
Online share of home retailing
2014
Poland
France
Europe av
Germany
UK
0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00%
Centre for Retail Research 2013
Town centre share of retail spend
2000
49.4%
2011
42.2%
2014
39.8%
Parliament 2014
An academic study. Why bother?
People do not want to go into six different shops for six
different articles; they prefer to buy the lot in one shop.
The American Grocer, 1892
For better or worse this distributive revolution is carrying
us away from shopkeeping to mass distribution
McNair, 1931
What causes High Street Change?
What influence do individual locations have?
10000 studies found
2345 after clean up
923 ‘retail’ highlighted
253 town centre/high st
173 studies reviewed
Review parameters
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Type of study (empirical, exploratory, conceptual)
Methodological evidence
Data source (primary, secondary, tertiary)
Dependent variable (retail area performance measure)
Independent variables (factor affecting performance)
Significance (major findings and statistical significance if
available)
7. Limitations (flaws, weaknesses etc.)
8. Author, date, publisher
9. Geographical location (UK, US, Europe, e.g.)
10.Size of retail/shopping centre (Different geographical scales of
place, e.g. city centre, town centre, high street, neighbourhood
centre, district centre, suburban centre)
166 factors influence performance
And if 166 factors were not enough…..
• Partner towns identified 50 additional factors
that influence the High Street
• 33 additional studies reviewed
• 201 factors finally identified, but:
– how much influence does each one have?
– what should towns be focussing on?
The Delphi Technique
The Delphi method is unique in its method of
eliciting and refining group judgement as it is based
on the notion that a group of experts is better than
one expert when exact knowledge is not available.
(Paliwoda, 1983).
22 Experts participated
Practitioner
Academic
Major retailer
Manchester Metropolitan
University
Shopping centres owner
University of Leicester
Urban consultant
University of Dundee
Retail letting agency
University of Ulster
Urban policy group
Oxford University
Trade association
University of Manchester
Professional body
University of Liverpool
University of Portsmouth
University of Loughborough
Consensus reached on
1. How much influence each factor
has on the vitality and viability of
the High Street
2. How much control a location has
over the factor
Amount of influence location has over
factor
4
Child-minding centre
3.5
Opening hours
Not worth it!
Get on with it!
Deliveries
Leadership
3
2.5
2
Political climate
Methods of classification
1.5
Forget it!
Live with it!
Spatial structure
Location
1
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Amount of influence factor has over vitality and viability
Top 25 priorities
3.900
APPEARANCE
How much town can influence factor
3.700
3.500
3.300
NECESSITIES
PLACE MARKETING
EXPERIENCE
PLACE ASSURANCE
NETWORKS &
ACTIVITY HOURS
ENTERTAINMENT AND
PARTNERSHIPS
MANAGEMENT
LEISURE
WITH COUNCIL
RECREATIONAL
MERCHANDISE
Anchor stores
SPACE
VISION&STRATEGY
RETAILERS
WALKING
DIVERSITY
ADAPTABILITY
Chain vs independent
Safety/crime
3.100
LIVEABLE
ATTRACTIVENESS
Comparison/convenience
Barriers to Entry
2.900
ACCESSIBLE
2.700
3.300
3.500
3.700
3.900
4.100
4.300
How much factor influences vitality and viability
4.500
4.700
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Delphi
Average
RESULTS from #HSUK2020 towns
Spatial
Macro
Meso
Micro
Partnerships
have 64 % of
potential
influence they
could have
Impact
Changing stakeholder attitudes and
behaviours
• Over 180 local stakeholders across 10 locations
in England, Wales and Northern Ireland have
been involved.
• Over 25 different types of stakeholders, from
major retailers to local residents have been
engaged.
In Wrexham, the High Street UK 2020 workshop was well attended,with
more than 30 participants. As a direct result of the enthusiasm
generated at the event, a new Business Group met on 2 September
2014 to look at how to build on the discussions and how to find
champions for the 25 top priorities identified in the HSUK2020 research.
This group meeting is seen as a forerunner for a town centre focused
group drawn from businesses, the community and the public sector.
New dialogue routes between the Council and the business community
have been established. To date a lot of effort has been focused on new
structures and partnerships but the group are very keen to start taking
actions forward. The group says the HSUK2020 research has been ‘a
catalyst for action’.
Changing media perceptions
• Over 80 media hits in the local press, on radio
and online.
• All positive, all report major findings and most
have a ‘call to action’.
• BBC Stoke ran a week-long ‘special’ on “All
About Alsager”
Barnsley Chronicle, 27th June 2014
Influencing research agenda
• Findings have been presented to over 1,300
delegates at regional, national and international
events.
• A research agenda has been published reflecting
research needs of high street stakeholders