Workshop on Earthquake
Precursor Research
Tel Aviv University
91 June 2006
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Workshop on Earthquake Precursor Research.
PROGRAM
0900 – 0915
0915 – 0925
0925 – 0935
Arrival
Moshe Merzer/Colin Price – Welcome
Abraham Sternlieb (MAFAT) – Opening remarks
Session 1 - Methods based on previous earthquakes
0935 – 0955 Gideon Steinitz (GSI) - Short- and long-term variations in seismicity along the Dead Sea
Fault.
0955 – 1010. David Steinberg (TAU) - Statistical models for seismicity: some theory, some questions.
1010 – 1035 Gideon Baer (GSI) - InSAR measurements of crustal deformation along the southern Dead
Sea Fault.
1035 – 1100 Vladimir Pinsky (GII) - Early warning system from initial P-waves
1100 – 1125 Coffee break
Session 2 - Mechanical and chemical methods
1125 – 1150 Hillel Wust-Bloch (TAU) - Nanoseismic monitoring applied to earthquake precursors
1150 – 1215 Elena Ostrovsky (SOI) - GPS measurements for a study of earthquake precursors
1215– 1240 Gideon Steinitz (GSI) – The radon system
1240 - 1305. Akiva Flexer (TAU) - Changes in water levels
1305 – 1415 Lunch
Session 3 - Electric/magnetic methods
1415 - 1440 Colin Price (TAU) - ULF measurements
1440 - 1505 Hovav Zafrir (GSI) - Gradometer measurements
1505 - 1530 Vladimir Frid (BGU) - Electromagnetic signals from rocks
1530 - 1555 Nathan Blaunstein (BGU) - The Methods of Earlier Prediction of Ionospheric Precursors of
Earthquake by Use Ionosondes
Session 4
1555 – 1630 Discussion
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‫מדינת ישראל‬
‫משרד הביטחון‬
‫ מת"ט‬/‫מפא"ת‬
-‫בלמ"ס‬-
‫מינהל למחקר פיתוח אמל"ח ותשתית‬
‫היחידה למחקר ותשתית טכנולוגית‬
September 6002
02_1111
‫מפ‬
To: All Workshop Participants and Earthquake Researchers
This workshop was initiated by MAFAT, the R & D Agency of the Israel Ministry of Defense. In this
earthquake study sponsorship, MAFAT is trying to help the Civilian Protection Command, which is the IDF
Service in charge of managing national emergency situations all over the country.
It is clear that early knowledge about the magnitude, timing and place of an upcoming big earthquake may
save thousands of lives.
An artist's concept of an early earthquake warning system would probably contain a sensor network, an
appropriate algorithm and an automatic alert system.
To attain this we will try to plan a road map, including realistic goals, and then we will have to find the
institutions and the necessary funding to implement this road map.
We suggest that the funding will be provided by several sponsors including e.g. MOD, Ministry of
Infrastructure, Ministry of Science, etc. Collaboration with foreign partners will be part of this activity.
In order to promote the above-mentioned goals, we plan to have more intimate and focused meetings in the
future.
We hope very much for your cooperation.
Dr. Abraham Sternlieb
MAFAT (DDR&D)
Israel Ministry of Defense.
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Introduction
Earthquake prediction is important and essential for saving human life.
But it is a difficult task to tell the time, place and magnitude of an upcoming event. This is not possible
today, and will likely not be possible for a long time.
NATURE, 431, p.1032 (October 2004)
However, there is growing evidence that something anomalous is observable before major earthquakes,
what we call “earthquake precursors”. These anomalous signals can appear anywhere from seconds,
minutes, and even weeks and months before major earthquakes. Observing these precursors, and
understanding them, is important if we want to advance the field of earthquake predictions.
The workshop at Tel-Aviv University was organized in order to survey the various methods being used
today in Israel for detecting earthquake precursors. It was the first of its kind in Israel to bring together
those researchers working in the field of earthquake precursors. Experts in all areas of geophysics were
assembled, from those working in geology, to those working in magnetospheric physics (Fig. 1).
It is hoped that with such a multi-disciplinary and inter-disciplinary approach we will succeed in
advancing our knowledge in this important and exciting field of geophysics.
As a kick-off in this direction it is intended to create a common data base of all the parameters presented
in the workshop, which would be available to any researcher (e.g. on Internet). The expectation is that, by
examining all the measured parameters together, connections may be found between various
measurements, which may deepen our understanding of processes occurring in the earth and may
eventually raise the probability for predicting an event.
As a first tentative assessment it is suggested that the database structure should be as in Fig. 2. It may be
good to widen it to include ancient earthquakes as in Fig. 3 with a link to Fig. 2.
Moshe Merzer
Colin Price
Tel Aviv University
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Fig.1. Fields of interest at workshop
Space Measurements
Atmospheric Measurements
InSAR, GPS, EM fields, TEC
Precursors to
Earthquakes
EM propagation, radar
Seismicity, EM fields, radon
Surface Measurements
Water level, radon, E-field
Sub-Surface Measurements
Fig.2 Tentative Database Setup(1)
ULF
Gradiometer
er
Water
levels
Radon
Nano-seismics
Sun activity
Earthquakes
Satellite data
(InSAR,GPS,
Demeter)
Link(2)
Time (t)
(1) Electromagnetic emissions from rocks and ionosonde
signals may also be considered.
(2) Link needed because of the huge amount of data.
Fig. 3 Earthquake long-time chart
Link into
Fig. 2
- X kyears
5
2000
2006
Contents of Report on Internet Site
Session 1 - Methods based on previous earthquakes
Short- and long-term variations in seismicity along the Dead Sea Fault.
Statistical models for seismicity: some theory, some questions.
InSAR measurements of crustal deformation along the southern Dead Sea Fault.
Early warning system from initial P-waves
Session 2 - Mechanical and chemical methods
Nanoseismic monitoring applied to earthquake precursors
GPS measurements for a study of earthquake precursors
The radon system
Changes in water levels
Session 3 - Electric/magnetic methods
ULF measurements
Gradometer measurements
Electromagnetic signals from rocks
The Methods of Earlier Prediction of Ionospheric Precursors of Earthquake by Use Ionosondes
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