COMBINING A KINEMATIC FRACTAL SOURCE MODEL WITH HYBRID GREEN’S FUNCTIONS TO MODELING BROADBAND STRONG GROUND MOTION Ruiz J.1, D. Baumont 2, P. Bernard 1 and C. Berge-Thierry 2 1 2 IPGP, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, France. IRSN, Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, France E-mail: jruiz@ipgp.jussieu.fr SUMMARY A hybrid empirical method is proposed to simulate broadband strong ground motion that combines a kinematic complex source model with both Numerical and Empirical Green’s Functions (EGF). The kinematic approach is based on a composite source model description where subevents are generated using a fractal distribution of sizes. Each subevent is set up with a size-dependent rise-time. Each elementary source is described as a crack-type slip model that starts radiating when the rupture front reaches the nucleation point located randomly inside a size-dependent nucleation region. The synthetic acceleration spectra follow the 2 model and the spectral amplitudes are scaled by a frequency-dependent directivity coefficient. In this study, the hypothesis of constant stress drop of subevent is released and a stochastic fluctuation of stress drop is introduced to better modeling the high-frequency level radiated by the source. Taking advantage of small magnitude events, synthetic seismograms are computed using hybrid Green’s functions (HGF) to model the impulsive response of the medium. The procedure consists to model HGF for each sub-fault combining the numerical low-frequency and the empirical high-frequency Green’s functions with appropriate amplitude and phase correction (geometrical spreading and delay times due to the S-wave travel time propagation). This methodology is applied to modeling strong ground motion of 1997 Mw 5.9 Yamaguchi-ken Hokubo, Japan earthquake. Some of the finite-source rupture parameters proposed in literature are fixed and only random generation of k-2 composite slip distribution are allowed. The comparison of synthetized and observed strong-motion caracteristics shows that the predictions are largely improved, when both HGF and variable stress drop of subevent are used. Key words: fractal source model, empirical Green’s functions, strong ground motion prediction, 1997 Yamaguchi earthquake 1 Introduction Predicting strong ground motion in the vicinity of the faults is crucial in the earthquake engineering domain and seismic hazard assessment studies, that can be achieved either empirically or numerically. Most of the numerical predictions need to compute broadband ground-acceleration time series up to a few tens of Hz. Several numerical approaches have been proposed in particular to model the high-frequency content of the accelerograms. Assuming that the high-frequency content is related to complex rupture processes, several kinematic source models with a heterogeneous slip distribution were developed (e.g. Andrews 1980; Boatwright, 1982; Bernard et al., 1996). Some of these models based on the idea that an earthquake can be seen as the superposition of numerous small events (or subevents) have also been proposed such as (1) the composite source model with fractal distribution of sizes (Boatwright, 1988; Frankel, 1991; Zeng et al., 1994) or (2) the specific barrier model (Papageorgieu and Aki, 1983) that assumes a uniform distribution of sizes of subevents. -1- The complexity observed on records is not only due to source effects, but also it is related to the interaction of the radiated wave field with the geological medium (including source-station path and site effects). When modeling broadband accelerograms, a problem arises because of the difficulties of calculating theoretical realistic Green’s functions for the medium for a large frequency band. In some cases, the impulsive earth response can be estimated “accurately” and deterministically through 3-D numerical simulations, but this strategy is often limited to low-frequencies modeling (< 2 Hz) due to computational limitations and a lack of knowledge of subsurface geometry structures and small-scale elastic properties of the medium. An alternative empirical approach proposed by Hartzell (1978) consists to use the records of a small earthquake having a focal mechanism and hypocentral location similar to the target event as empirical Green’s functions (EGF). The basic idea consist to model a large earthquake adding up recording of small earthquakes shifted in time to take into account delay times due to rupture propagation and distance from the receiver to points onto the fault plane. The -2 spectral scaling law (Aki, 1967) is normally assumed for small and large size earthquakes. Both events must to be having the same focal mechanism. The more important advantage of this method is that path and site effect are take into account. After the EGF method proposed by Hartzell (1978), several techniques and applications have been proposed in literature, among which, Irikura (1986), Spudich and Miller (1990), Irikura and Kamae (1994), Frankel (1995), Hutchings and Wu (1990), Hutchings (1994), Bour and Cara (1997), Kamae and Irikura (1998), Miyake et al. (2003), Sansorny-Kohrs et al. (2005), Hutchings et al. (2006). More of these techniques are based on summation methods to perform a 2 spectral shape by summing (e.g. Irikura and Kamae, 1994), or summing and filtering (e.g. Frankel, 1995) EGFs. A common limitation of these techniques is that the low-frequency content (usually < 1 Hz) of records of small earthquakes is dominated by seismic noise, and the signal-to-noise ratio is worst when record associated to small magnitudes earthquakes are used. To counterbalance this problem, it is possible to use numerical Green’s functions to simulate the low-frequency content of the radiated wave field. It is the case for hybrid techniques proposed in literature that combine numerical and stochastic modeling of the Green’s function at low- and high-frequency respectively. By modeling 3D wave propagation at low-frequency, these techniques have been applied to the Mw 7.3 Kobe, Japan earthquake (Kamae et al., 1998; Pitarka et al., 1998, 2000), in California (Hartzell et al., 1999; Graves and Pitarka, 2006). An alternative approach to summation techniques of EGF was proposed by Hutchings and Wu (1990) that uses records of earthquakes having small magnitudes to obtain the Green’s function of the medium. The hypothesis of impulsive response of the medium is only valid up to the corner frequency of the small earthquake. For higher frequencies, radiation is controlled by the finiteness of the fault and source effects associated to the small earthquake. For instance, for a M w 3.0 event, the corner frequency estimated using Brune’s (1970) relations is roughly equal to 10 Hz. The EGF is used as a Green’s function in the representation theorem relationship to synthesize ground motion (Hutchings and Wu, 1990; Hutching 1994; Hutching et al., 2006). The most important advantage of this method is that the EGF can be combined with any kinematic rupture source model. These authors combine a kinematic rupture process by using a Kostrovtype slip-velocity function. However, in the vicinity of the faults ground motion are also strongly and directly influenced by complexity of the rupture process. The spatial and temporal variability of slip-velocity function, the rupture velocity or the directivity effects can control largely the ground motion. When a numerical approach is used to predict strong ground motion, the kinematic rupture history on the fault must to be described in a physical way. Inspired of method proposed by Hutchings and Wu (1990), this study presents a hybrid empirical method able to simulate broadband ground motion that combines a kinematic stochastic fractal composite source model (Ruiz et al., 2007) with Hybrid Green’s Functions (HGF). The kinematic fractal source model uses a -2- set of subevent following a fractal distribution of sizes and scale dependent rise-time. The rupture process at small-scale is controlled by a size-dependent nucleation region that controls and reduce the directivity effects. The acceleration spectral amplitudes follows a 2 spectral shape scaled by a frequency-dependent directivity effects (Ruiz et al., 2007). The hybrid empirical methodology is applied to the 1997 M w 5.9 Yamaguchi-Ken Hokubo, Japan, earthquake. The aim of this paper is (1) to compare strong ground motion predicted when numerical and hybrid Green’s function are used, and (2) test the validity of use HGF to predict the reported ground motion. 2 Methodology The ground motion is computed by a kinematic rupture source model based in a discrete version of the representation theorem of seismic source (Aki and Richard, 1980). The kinematic description needs a complete description of the spatial and temporal evolution of the rupture process on the fault (Figure 1). The rupture history is described assuming the hypocenter location, the rupture times, tijr , are obtained simply assuming a circular rupture front propagated at constant rupture velocity, V r, and the slip-velocity functions ( sij ) are set up according to the kinematic source model description. The impulsive response of the medium is the Green’s function (gnij) that is set up with a HGF (hnij). The synthetic seismogram is computed convolving the slip-velocity functions with the respective HGF for each sub-fault. Assuming that the sub-fault (i0, j0) correspond to the location of the EGF ( eni0 j0 , Figure 1), the representation theorem can be written by g ri j M nij u n sij * g nij Flp eni0 j0 eni0 j (t t sij t sobs ) 0 0 Fhp , rij M0 0 0 ij (1) where the bracketed term corresponds to the HGF (hnij). Flp and Fhp are low- and high-pass filters defined by a corner frequency corresponding to the cut-off low-frequency that is obtained by signal-to-noise ratio analysis of records of the small earthquake. The EGF is shifted in time to synchronize the observed (tsobs) to the theoretical (tsij) S-wave arrival time. The EGF is corrected in amplitude to take into account the geometrical spreading and it is re-normalized to obtain the appropriate seismic moment. The EGF obtained at each sub-faults (i, j) is g enij eni0 j 0 M 0 nij M e ni0 j 0 0 (t t sij t sobs ) ri0 j 0 rij (2) where ri0 j0 et rij are the distance from the receiver to the hypocenter and the sub-fault (i, j) respectively. The e g two terms M 0ni0 j0 and M 0 nij are the seismic moment of the small earthquake and the numerical Green’s function respectively. In this procedure, the seismic moment of the small earthquake is determined by measuring the spectral amplitudes of ground-displacement at low- frequencies. In the far-field approximation, the seismic moment, M0, can be estimated using the following formula (Aki and Richards, 1980) M0 4c 3 R Fc Rc 0 (3) where 0 is the plateau level of the ground-displacement spectrum measured at low-frequencies, is the density, c represent the body wave velocity chosen (P or S), R is the hypocentral distance, R c is radiation pattern amplitude, and Fc is free-surface amplitude. -3- An inconvenient of this approach is that the usable frequency band of EGFs is limited up to the corner frequency of the small earthquake. To enlarge it, under few hypothesis, it is possible to remove the source effects of the small event (Hutchings et al., 2006). On the other hand an advantage of using HGF is that the low-frequency can be improved by 3-D simulation of wave propagation in heterogeneous media. In addition, the HGF can be combined with any kinematic complex source model describing a heterogeneous rupture process. We prefer the kinematic fractal composite source model proposed by Ruiz et al. (2007) that allows to control directivity effects and to model numerical standard deviation of strong-motion parameters which are in better agreement with the ones predicted empirically. This approach uses a set of subevent following a fractal distribution of sizes where each subevent is described by a crack-type slip and a scale-dependent risetime. By adjusting the total seismic moment of the subevents to the target moment of the main event, the final slip distribution is characterized by a k-2 spectral decay at high wave numbers. The rupture process introduced at small-scale is controlled by the extension of the size-dependent nucleation region defined inside the crack. This stochastic rupture process diminish directivity rupture effects, generating accelerations spectral amplitudes following a 2 spectral shape controlled by a frequency-dependent directivity effects (Ruiz et al., 2007). However, in composite source models the stress drop of subevents is assumed to be constant. Classically the stress drop is a macroscopic measure of source properties, Kanamori and Anderson (1975) suggest mean values of stress drop of about 60 bars. However, the fluctuations on the fault plane due to heterogeneous slip can vary strongly as was shown by Bouchon (1997) by analyzing the imaged slip of past earthquakes. He obtained values of about 100 MPa for the 1994 Morgan Hill earthquake. In addition, Nadeau and Johnson (1998) analyzed repeating earthquakes in the San Andreas Fault for magnitude events included in the interval, -0.7 to 1.4, and 3.5 to 4.9. In their study, stress drop values reported for magnitude 4 is about 30 bars, and extreme values can be reach 1000 MPa for magnitude 1 events. Nadeau et Johnson (1998) propose a relation between magnitude and stress drop. Later, Ide and Beroza (2001) reinterpreting previous studies show that not dependence of the apparent stress drop (ratio between seismic energy and seismic moment) on magnitude for a large interval of magnitude. No doubt that all these elements give a large uncertainty of stress drop variations with size of earthquakes. In this study, we released the hypothesis of constant stress drop (d) of subevent for the fractal source model developed by Ruiz et al. (2007). We proposed here to introduce at all scales a random fluctuation of the stress drop value of subevents, bounded by a constant minimum value and a maximal value that increases up to a saturation level for small sizes. The effects of increasing the stress drop at small-scale is to generate a more heterogeneous slip distribution at short wavelength, while preserving a k-2 spectral decay and the final seismic moment (see later for a numerical example). 3 Modeling the 1997 Mw 5.9 Yamaguchi Japan earthquake This section presents the results of strong ground motion prediction applied to the main shock of the 1997 Mw 5.9 Yamaguchi earthquake. We aim to test the validity of strong ground motion prediction with HGF and to compare simulations against the results when numerical Green’s functions are used. The analysis of the results is carried out by comparing observed and predicted strong-motion parameters as peak groundacceleration (PGA) and velocity (PGV) and also waveform of ground motion. 3.1 Data The Yamaguchi earthquake occurred on June 25th, 1997 in the western Japan. It was a strike-slip crustal earthquake and several seismological agencies reported the hypocenter and source parameters of the main -4- shock (Table 1). Three aftershocks were recorded by the Japanese strong motion network, K-NET (Kinoshita, 1998). Figure 2 shows the epicenter location of the main shock and their aftershocks along with the K-NET stations. Focal mechanism and fault geometry proposed by Ide (1999) are used in simulations (Table 2). For comparisons purposes between ground motion simulations using numerical and hybrid Green’s function, the layered crustal model (Table 3) was used to compute the numerical Green’s functions up to 12 Hz using the Discrete Wave Number Method (Bouchon and Aki, 1977) and the AXITRA code (Coutant, 1989). The fault plane (L × W = 16 × 12 km2) is buried at 0.5 km of depth and in this study it was subdivided onto a 256 × 256 regular grid mesh of about 61 × 46 m2. To compute the HGF, only the first aftershock (AFT1) was used as EGF for this application. An important consideration when using EGF is to determine accurately seismic moment and the usable frequency-band of records. This minimal frequency is determined by signal-to-noise ratio analysis and it value depends on several factor such as the magnitude, source-station distance and site conditions. The maximal frequency is related to the corner frequency of small events. Beyond this frequency, source duration and rise-time associated to the seismic source of aftershocks dominate the frequency content and the hypothesis of an impulsive point source is not valid anymore. Neglecting site effects, the S-wave displacement is used to determine the seismic moment by using Eq. (3) and, c = 3.43 km s-1, = 2.7 gr cm-3, Rc = 4/15 chosen as the mean square radiation pattern over the focal sphere and Fc = 2. Table 4 resumes the values for R, 0, M0 and Mw obtained using records at few stations. The mean value is 2 1014 N.m with a magnitude of about Mw = 3.45 ± 0.11. Figure 3 shows examples of spectral ratios (Figure 3a) and displacement spectrum of recording of the AFT1 (Figure 3b). Spectral ratios values obtained at low-frequency confirm that the seismic moment of the AFT2 and AFT3 is the half of the seismic moment of the AFT1. The corner frequency of the aftershock can be estimated, for example, with the source spectral fitting method proposed by Miyake et al. (1999) that yields additional parameters to perform simulations by summation techniques of EGF. Here, the fc value is simply obtained by adjusting manually the theoretical2 spectrum to the observed ones. Figure 4 shows the fitting of the theoretical 2 shape with the ground-acceleration spectrum computed for the transversal component of records of the AFT1. The corner frequency obtained is about 5 Hz, and comparing the spectral amplitudes of noise and signal, it is possible to determine the minimum usable frequency in simulations. In this case the value varies around ~ 0.7 – 1 Hz, by simplicity it was fixed to 1 Hz for all records. The HGF are estimated between the receiver and all points of the fault grid mesh. Each of them is computed in the frequency domain by using high- and low-pass complementary null phase filters defined with a cut-off frequency equal to 1 Hz. Following the method detailed previously, the filters are applied to the empirical and the numerical Green’s function respectively, by correcting EGF by geometrical spreading and renormalizing it by the seismic moment. The EGF is shifted in time to synchronize the theoretical and observed S-wave arrival of the numerical and the empirical Green’s function respectively. Finally the synthetic seismograms are computed convolving the HGF with the respective slip-velocity function modeled at each grid mesh. 3.2 Modeling strong ground motion with HGF A few finite-source rupture models for the Mw 5.9 Yamaguchi earthquake have been published (Ide, 1999; Miyakoshi et al., 2000). In this study, the fault geometry, the main dimension of the asperity, and the mean rupture velocity proposed by Ide (1999) are used. He provided a set of source rupture models inverting strong motion data for various frequency bands, using numerical Green’s functions (0.1 – 0.5 Hz) and EGF (0.5 - 2 Hz). Figure 6 displays one solution for the slip distribution and the rupture times obtained by this author which are available on-line (Mai et al., 2006). The slip distribution is characterized by a main patch -5- distributed over a surface of roughly equal to l w = 9 10 km2, reaching a maximum slip of about 0.5 m. The mean rupture velocity is, Vr = 3 km s-1. The strong ground motion simulations performed for this application were computed using the main characteristics of the finite-source rupture model solution, that is to say fault geometry, hypocenter location, mean rupture velocity and dimension of the asperity. The kinematic fractal source model (Ruiz et al., 2007) was used to model the kinematic rupture process and numerical and hybrid Green’s function were used to modeling the medium response. The slip distribution was generated using N = 35000 crack-type sources, the maximum radius allowed to cover the fault plane Rmax = 0.23 W. The parameter defining the extension of the nucleation region is h = 0 (see Ruiz et al., 2007), which corresponds to a persistency of directivity at all scales. The maximum rise-time, max = 1 s. The rupture front propagates circularly from the hypocenter at constant rupture velocity, Vr = 2.95 km s-1. By fixing all these parameters, the ground motion variability is only due the few random slip distributions that were generated. To better model the main asperity, the surface cover by subevents was reduced to 12 × 9 km2. We introduce a stochastic fluctuation at all scales of the stress drop of subevents, d. In average the stress drop is slightly increased up to a constant level when the size of subevents decreases. First, d is assumed to be constant, d = 3 MPa, and in a second step it was varied randomly between two limits, with minimum value equal to 2.5 MPa, and a maximal fluctuation equal to 15 MPa for the smallest sources. Figure 7a shows the comparison of the stress drop of subevents as a function of their radius when a constant and variable stress drop is considered. The fluctuation on stress drop varies from 2.5 to 20 MPa, where larger fluctuations affect mainly the small sources, whereas the biggest sources are dominated by low values. Figure 7b display the comparison of the cumulated seismic moment of the set of subevents. Notice the redistribution of the seismic moment among the subevents. The slip computed with constant stress drop of subevents is shown in Figure 8a that exhibits a heterogeneous spatial distribution. On the other hand, one can notice that the slip generated with variable stress drop is highly spatially heterogeneous (Figure 8b). When comparing the slip spectral amplitudes for both cases, the k-2 spectral decay is preserved, but at high radial wave numbers amplitudes are larger for a variable stress drop. Figure 9 shows the results of the horizontal PGA and PGV predictions compared to the observed values when constant and variable stress drop are used. Numerical predictions correspond to 5 realizations of random slips. For a constant stress drop, the PGA predicted values are weaker that the observed ones, the amplitudes as a function of distance decay faster than the observations (Figure 9a). The set of PGV predictions are in agreement with the observations (Figure 9b). When a variable stress drop is used, the predicted PGA (Figure 9c) increases in term of amplitudes in relation to a constant stress drop, but predicted values cannot still well describe the observations, especially at large distances. PGV shown in Figure 9d, minor changes in amplitudes are noticed in relation to a constant stress drop. Predicted PGV values can describe in a better way the observations that PGA. These results show that the high-frequency content is strongly affected by considering variable fluctuations of the stress drop amplitude for the set of subevent generated by a fractal approach. Minor changes are notice at mid- and low-frequencies which dominate mainly the PGV. Figure 10 shows the horizontal PGA and PGV numerical values obtained with HGF and variable stress drop. One can notice a good agreement between the predictions and the observations for the PGA (Figure 10a), the amplitudes decay with distance is better described with HGF than numerical Green’s functions. Figure 10b shows the results for the PGV. In the case of PGV predictions, in terms of amplitudes and the attenuation with distance, are in good agreement with the observations. In general, the PGA and PGV tendency is well modeled, except for two receiver located at a source distance, ~ 40 km corresponding to stations YMG010 and YMG013. Differences can be attributed to the validity frequency range of simulations (up to fc = 5 Hz). -6- Figure 11 displays the time series for the ground-displacement, ground-velocity and ground-acceleration and their spectra modeled at a few stations and compared with the observations. The main characteristics of the ground motion are well modeled in terms of amplitude and duration for displacement and velocity. The accelerograms modeled are in good agreement with the record at the stations SMN014 and YMG003, where as at the stations SMN013, SMN011, and YMG009 some deficiencies are observed at high-frequencies. It can be associated, in part, to the source effects of the small earthquake. Let us recall that synthetics computed with HGF are only valid up ~ 5 Hz (corner frequency of the small earthquake), and 12 Hz was kept only for comparison purposes with the synthetics predictions computed with numerical Green’s functions. To enlarge the frequency band it is possible to remove the source-time function associated to the small earthquake. Hutching et al. (2006) proposed to apply a deconvolution to EGF records by a Brune’s (1970) source-time function. It assumes that the rupture is circular. A nonazimuthal dependence is introduced and the frequency characterizing the Brunes’s function is simply the corner frequency of the small earthquake. In order to test the effect of this first order correction, Figure 12 shows the results for the horizontal PGA and PGV predictions. The PGA predictions shows in Figure 12a are in better agreement with the observations, numerical values are increased in relation to the previous case (Figure 10). A minor impact is observed for the PGV, that is controlled mainly by the intermediated frequency band radiated by the source. 4 Discussion and conclusions The methodology proposed in this study demonstrates the necessity to introduce realistic Green’s functions to predict broadband strong ground motion in the vicinity of the faults. We have proposed an empirical hybrid technique that combines a kinematic complex fractal source model (Ruiz et al. 2007) with hybrid (numerical at low frequencies and empirical at high frequencies) Green’s functions. To describe the kinematic of the source model, we released the hypothesis of constant stress drop of subevents and stochastic fluctuations of stress drop were introduced. The final composite slip becomes highly heterogeneous, while preserving a k-2 spectral decay, and the effect is to increase the high-frequency content radiated by the source. The kinematic rupture was defined with a quasi-determinist nucleation region at all scales i.e. a similar directivity effect at all scales. The impulsive response of the medium is take into account by a HGF that is computed in the frequency domain by adding the low- and high-frequency content of the numerical and empirical Green’s function respectively. We have applied this methodology to model the strong ground motion of the main shock of the Mw 5.9 Yamaguchi-ken Hokubo Japan earthquake. The finite-source rupture model proposed by Ide (1999) was used to define fault geometry and location of the main asperity. Independently of the Green’s function used, the strong-motion parameters analyzed in this study (PGA and PGV) show that introducing a variable stress drop, mainly affects the high-frequency level radiated by the source. As a consequence, minor impacts were observed in the predicted PGV, whereas the PGA is increased in terms of amplitudes in relation to a constant stress drop. On the other hand, this study show that the best predictions were obtained when both HGF and variable stress drop of subevents are used. In term of PGV, no big differences were observed when using either numerical or empirical Green’s functions. However, the predicted PGA are largely improved, when HGF are used. The amplitudes and the attenuation with distance are better described with hybrid Green’s function than with the numerical ones. Some deficiencies at high-frequencies are still observed in the band 5 to 12 Hz, perhaps due to finite source effects associated to the small earthquake. For this latter case, using a deconvolution technique seems to be necessary to better describe the high-frequency content. Using recording of small magnitude events (EGF) combined with a kinematic complex source model seems to be a useful tool to predict strong ground motion. Some of advantage of to use HGF is the possibility of to -7- incorporate 2D or 3D low-frequency wave field propagation in a more realist medium. However, further work must to be done to remove the source effect associated with small earthquakes. Also, is important to test the limits of use this technique by modeling large magnitude earthquakes, in this case it is advisable to use records from several small earthquakes as EGF to better sampling the wave propagation to the station. Acknowledgements Figures were drawn by GMT v3.4 (Wessel and Smith, 1998). References Aki, K. (1967). Scaling law of seismic spectrum. J. Geophys. Res., 72, 1217-1231. Aki, K., and P. Richard (1980). 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Anderson and G. Yu (1994). A composite source model for computing realistic synthetics strong ground motions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 21, 725-728. - 10 - Figure 1. Scheme showing the principle of a kinematic source rupture description using empirical Green’s functions to compute HGF (see text for details). - 11 - Figure 2. Fault-trace and epicenter location of the 1997 Mw 5.9 Yamaguchi earthquake and three aftershocks (after Ide, 1999). Triangles indicate the stations of the K-NET Japanese strong motion network, and stations used in the simulations are plotted with gray dark triangles. - 12 - Figure 3. Example of verification of the seismic moment of aftershocks for the station SMN014 and YMG010. (a) Spectral ratios AFT1/AFT3, AFT1/AFT2, and AFT2/AFT3 computed for the using the radial and transverse components. (b) Measure of the 0 plateau level at low-frequency using displacement spectrum for the transverse component. - 13 - Figure 4. Example of signal-to-noise analysis for the transversal component of records of the AFT1 at three stations. (a) Accelerograms times-series, and (b) comparison of signal (dark lines), noise (gray lines) and theoretical spectrum (dashed lines). The theoretical 2 spectrum was plotted with a corner frequency estimated at 5 Hz. - 14 - Figure 5. Hybrid Green’s function at YMG010 (north component). Right-hand graphs display the accelerogram time series for the (top) numerical, (middle) empirical and (bottom) hybrid GFs. Left-hand graphs show (top) a comparison between the theoretical and empirical GFs versus seismic noise acceleration spectra, (middle) low- and high-pass filters with a cut-off frequency equal to 1.0 Hz and (bottom) hybrid GF spectrum. - 15 - Figure 6. Slip distribution and rupture times contours for the 1997 Mw 5.9 Yamaguchi earthquake imaged by Ide (1999) using kinematic inversion of strong ground motion records. - 16 - Figure 7. Example of (a) the stress drop parameter distribution, d, and (b) the cumulated seismic moment as a function of radius of subevents when a hypothesis of constant (squares) and stochastic fluctuation (circles) of d is assumed. The set of subevents generated for this example is one used to model the M w 5.9 Yamaguchi, Japan earthquake. - 17 - Figure 8. Example of a k-2 slip distributions when using a (a) constant and (b) stochastic fluctuation of the stress drop of subevents. (Left to right) 2-D and 3-D representation of the slip and the slip spectral amplitudes. Gray line superposed to spectrum represents a reference k-2 decay, u(k) ~ 1 /( 1 + (k/kc)2), kc = 2/Lc, Lc = 8 km. - 18 - Figure 9. Comparison of simulated (circles) and observed (squares) strong-motion parameters for the 1997 Mw 5.9 Yamaguchi Japan earthquake using numerical Green’s functions. The predicted (a) PGA and (b) PGV numerical values were computed assuming constant stress drop, where as numerical values for (c) PGA and (d) PGV were computed using stochastic fluctuation of stress drop. The empirical attenuation relationships plotted corresponds to one derived by Kanno et al. (2006) where thick and thin gray lines represents the mean ± the standard deviation. - 19 - Figure 10. Comparison of simulated (circles) and observed (squares) for horizontal peak ground (a) acceleration, PGA and (b) velocity, PGV for the 1997 Mw 5.9 Yamaguchi Japan earthquake. The predicted numerical values were computed using HGF and five random slip distributions generated with a fractal approach assuming variable stress drop for subevents. The empirical attenuation relationships plotted correspond to one derived by Kanno et al. (2006) where thick and thin gray lines represents the mean ± the standard deviation. - 20 - Figure 11. Comparison of synthesized (gray lines) and observed (black lines) waveforms of displacement, velocity, acceleration, and acceleration spectrum for the 1997 Mw 5.9 Yamaguchi earthquake. Synthetic were computed using HGF and a random composite slip assuming a variable stress drop of subevents. - 21 - Figure 12. Comparison of predicted (circles) and observed (squares) for the horizontal (a) PGA and (b) PGV for the 1997 Mw 5.9 Yamaguchi Japan earthquake. Synthetics were computed using deconvolved HGF and five random slip generated with a fractal approach assuming variable stress drop for subevents. The empirical attenuation relationships were derived by Kanno et al. (2006) where thick and thin gray lines represent the mean ± the standard deviation. - 22 - Table 1. Hypocenter location and source parameters for the 1997 Mw 5.9 Yamaguchi earthquake proposed by different seismological agencies. Agency Date Time Latitude Longitude Depth M0 ° ° (km) (N.m) Mw JMA(1) 9:50:00 34.438 131.669 8.29 - 6.1 CMT 9:50:10.70 34.43 131.35 15 6.711017 5.8 NEIC 9:50:12.49 34.395 131.603 12 9.11017 5.9 Ide (1999)(2) 18:50:13.10 34.4412 131.6761 7.5 - 5.9 JMA, Japan Meteorological Agency. CMT, Centroid Moment Tensor (Dziewonski et al., 1999). NEIC, National Earthquake Information Center. (1) JMA magnitude. (2) Local Japanese time. - 23 - Table 2. Source parameter of the main shock and aftershock proposed by Ide (1999). Date Latitude Longitude Depth Mw Strike Dip Rake JST ° ° (km) Main shock 25/6 18:50:13.1 34.4412 131.6761 7.5 AFT1 25/6 18:58:23.0 34.4544 131.6965 AFT2 25/6 19:30:02.4 34.4412 AFT3 25/6 19:49:43.9 34.4483 ° ° ° 5.9 -125 86 -178 9.7 3.6 55 84 175 131.6800 11.3 3.4 55 82 174 131.6927 5.2 3.4 -122 86 178 - 24 - Table 3. Crustal structure model used in the simulations. These values correspond to ones proposed by Ide (1999). Depth Vp Vs (km) (km/s) (km/s) (gr/cm3) 0 5.60 3.23 3 6.00 16 Qp Qs 2.50 400 200 3.47 2.70 600 300 6.60 3.82 3.00 800 400 30 7.80 4.50 3.20 1000 500 70 8.00 4.62 3.25 1000 500 - 25 - Table 4. Seismic moment (M0) and magnitude (Mw) determined for the aftershock 1 (AFT1) using displacement spectrum of S-wave. R 0 M0 (m) (cm.s) (N.m) SMN011 33598 8.0010-4 3.021014 3.59 SMN012 26939 5.0010-4 1.521014 3.39 SMN013 29072 4.0010-3 1.311014 3.34 SMN014 12370 1.0010-3 1.391014 3.36 YMG002 29221 9.0010-4 2.961014 3.58 YMG003 15280 1.5010-3 2.581014 3.54 YMG009 29141 6.0010-4 1.971014 3.46 YMG010 37904 3.0010-4 1.281014 3.34 Mean values 2.001014 3.45 ± 0.11 Station - 26 - Mw