WORKSHOP
on
Regional Flash Flood Guidance System – South America
As Part of the Global Flash Flood Guidance System
1 to 4 October 2011, Santiago de Chile, Chile
-------------Under the World Meteorological Organization’s Flood Forecasting Initiative, the World
Meteorological Congress has endorsed the implementation of a Flash Flood Guidance System
(FFGS) with a Global coverage (GFFGS), in collaboration with the NOAA, US Agency for
International Development- Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID-OFDA), and the
Hydrologic Research Centre (HRC), San Diego. This workshop is being organized to assess
the needs of the region with respect to flash flood forecasting and guidance along with building
understanding about the capabilities of the Global Flash Flood Guidance System (GFFGS). The
objectives and planned outcomes for this workshop are as follows:
Workshop Objectives:
1. To present and discuss the needs for and limitations of current flash flood forecasting
systems in the South American region (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia,
Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela), including flash flood detection and
forecasting, development and dissemination procedures and protocols for warning
populations at risk, and coordination between National Meteorological and Hydrologic
Services.
2. To inform hydrologic forecasters and meteorological forecasters from the countries of
South American Region about the capabilities of a Regional Flash Flood Guidance
System (FFGS) and discuss the potential application to/implementation in the South
American region. The FFGS will be presented in the context of the implementation of
the FFGS on a global scale.
Workshop Outcomes:
1. An understanding amongst participants of the regional issues with regards to forecast,
detection, warning development and dissemination, and response for flash floods in the
South American region and the opportunity for future networking around these issues.
2. A basic understanding amongst participants of the fundamentals of the FFGS, its
operations, its links to disaster risk reduction, and its application in the region.
3. Assessment of the concept of a Regional FFGS within the context of a regional
approach to an end-to-end multi-hazard early warning system for South America.
4. Preparation of a presentation on outcomes of the workshop including Flash Flood
Guidance for South America for delivery at the GEOSS Symposium for the Americas,
from 5 to 7 October 2011.
Draft Workshop Agenda
Day 1 Saturday 1 October (0900 – 1730) Facilitator – WMO
0900 – 0930 Introductions (All)
0930 – 1000 Introduction to the Workshop and Expected Outcomes with Connection to GEO
(Abrate (WMO), RAIII – Hydrology Lead Goniadzki (Argentina) and Lewis (NOAA))
1000 – 1100 An overview by the South American meteorological and hydrologic agencies with
regards to the flash flood issues in each country (Country Presentations from Argentina and
Bolivia)1
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The nature of the flash flood problem(s)
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Availability of data to forecast and warn (remotely sensed and in-situ data)
Roles of various agencies (in forecast, warning development and dissemination and
disaster management
Present operational forecast operations for flash floods
Discussion of operational needs and constraints
1100 – 1130 Coffee Break
1130 – 1300 An overview by the South American meteorological and hydrologic agencies with
regards to the flash flood issues in each country – Continued (Country Presentations from
Brazil, Chile and Colombia)
1300 – 1400 Lunch
1400 – 1530 An overview by the South American meteorological and hydrologic agencies with
regards to the flash flood issues in each country – Continued (Country Presentations from
Ecuador, Paraguay and Peru)
1530 – 1600 Coffee Break
1600 – 1700 An overview by the South American meteorological and hydrologic agencies with
regards to the flash flood issues in each country – Continued (Country Presentations from
Uruguay and Venezuela)
1700 – 1730 Country Presentations from participants from other countries.
Representatives of the countries will address the major issues in the region – presentations should cover both NMS
and NHS aspects. These presentations should include operational remote sensing data availability, operational onsite gauge networks, in-country organization of meteorological and hydrological services, responsibilities for flash
flood predictions, current operational flood forecast tools, etc. as per the responses to questionnaires.
1
Day 2 - Monday 3 October 2011 (0900 – 1700) - Facilitator – NOAA
0900 – 0930 Overview of Saturday presentations/discussions
0930 – 1015 Flash Floods as a Hydro-meteorological Phenomenon (Georgakakos, HRC)
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Definitions (WMO, AMS, US NWS)
Climatological and statistical information
Characteristic features of flash floods
1015 – 1100 Overview of hydrologic modeling issues for flash flood forecasting (Georgakakos,
HRC)
 Types of flash flood forecasting systems
 Site-specific
 Distributed modeling
 Flash flood guidance system
1100 – 1130 Coffee Break
1130 – 1230 U.S. National Weather Service Flash Flood Operations (Cabrera, NOAA-NWS)
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Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction System (FFMP)
Distributed Hydrologic Model- Threshold Frequency (DHM-TF)
Flash Flood Prediction Index (FFPI)
1230 – 1330 Lunch
1330 – 1500 Estimation of Precipitation from Radar, Satellite, and Rain Gauges (Georgakakos,
HRC)
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Principles of precipitation estimation using radars
Principles of precipitation estimation using rain gauge networks
Merging data from different sensors
Satellite Rainfall Estimation including HydroEstimator (Kuligowski, NOAA-NESDIS)
1500 – 1530 Coffee Break
1530 – 1615 Introduction to the Central America Flash Flood Guidance System (CAFFG)
(Jubach, HRC)
 Flash Flood Guidance
 FFG examples
1615 – 1700 Discussion
Day 3 Tuesday 4 October 2011 (0900 - 1630) Facilitator – WMO
0900 – 0930 Overview of previous day presentations/discussions
0930 – 1015 Design Fundamentals for Operational Flash Flood Warning Systems
(Georgakakos, HRC)
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Forecaster as the focus
From data to warnings
Coping with uncertainty
The approach to FFG system design, implementation and training
1015 – 1100 CAFFG System Product Use (Alfaro, NOAA-NWS)
 Product interpretation and adjustments
 From CAFFG products to advisories and warnings
 Forecast uncertainty and system validation
 Quantitative Precipitation Forecast application
 Detailed discussion of examples
1100 – 1130 Coffee Break
1130 – 1230 CAFFG System Product Use (continued)
1230 – 1330 Lunch
1330 – 1430 Flash Flood Guidance System Regional Application (Jubach, HRC)
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Discussion of the operational FFG systems
FFG implementation steps/data needs
Regional Center approach, requirements and responsibilities
System maintenance and sustainability
1430 – 1500 Discussion for possible operational application in South America (All)
1500 – 1530 Coffee Break
1530 – 1600 Discussion for possible operational application in South America
1600 – 1630 Key note speech Dr. David Grimes invitation to GEOSS Symposium and the
importance of WMO and GEO collaboration for the development of GEOSS - close
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