Retirement Revolution
How Longevity, Medical Trends, and Baby Boomer
Demographics will Transform America
By Grady Cash and Bruce Temkin Copyright 2004 Reproduction is prohibited.
Like swollen mountain streams rushing down a valley, major global trends are approaching with the
force of a flash flood. In the near future, these trends will crash into the enormous demographics of the
Baby Boomer generation.
The result will be raging torrents of change that will transform society, redefine
retirement, make some of today’s retirement plans obsolete, and literally change
democracy itself… and this will occur in less than 120 months.
Over half of 77 million Baby Boomers will have insufficient funds to retire at age 65. Current life
expectancy projections “assume no major medical advances,” according to the US Census, but that is
an “a priori” assumption that does not reflect the rapid pace of medical advances.
Medical knowledge is increasing at a staggering rate… doubling every five years,
according to the AMA website. The American Cancer Society reports that we have
learned more about cancer in the past 10 years than in the past three thousand
years. As a result, tomorrow’s seniors will outlive current life expectancies.
Medical advances will insure that tomorrow’s seniors live longer than ever, but not necessarily in good
health. Ominous health trends forecast serious problems for Baby Boomers. What will happen when
years of neglected health, increasing longevity, and lack of retirement funds finally clashes with
retiring Baby Boomers… the “me” generation that has forced society to adapt to its whims throughout
its entire life span?
The result will be massive economic and political forces that will transform
society.
Retirement will no longer be the end stage of life, but the beginning of several exciting new stages.
Medical advances will continue to occur at a breakneck pace. As a result, tomorrow’s seniors will live
longer than ever…but there will be a dark side to increasing longevity.
1. Tens of millions of seniors will outlive retirement funds.
At least 42 million Baby Boomers will lack sufficient funds to retire at age 65… and
that’s before we factor in increasing health care costs and increasing longevity.
2. Health risks are actually increasing
a. Obesity is increasing... 31% of adults are obese, 65% are overweight.
b. Obesity increases risk of cancer by 200%
c. Obesity increases risk of heart disease by 82%.
d. These diseases greatly decrease quality of life and out of pocket medical expenses.
Copyright 2004 Grady Cash and Bruce Temkin. Reproduction in whole or in part prohibited without written permission.
3. Frail seniors who would have died from previously fatal illnesses will be kept alive in spite of
poor health. The average stay in nursing homes – about two years today – could skyrocket to
several years. Medicare will not survive in its current form.
A sea of sickly seniors will survive not one but a half dozen or more previously
fatal illnesses. The cost – to society and to families – will be staggering.
The burden on retirement funds, Social Security, and Medicare will be so severe… the need of seniors
so desperate… and the economic clout of the Baby Boom generation so great… that even democracy
itself will be transformed. These emerging trends will…
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Reshape the workplace, the healthcare system, and retirement living.
Transform Social Security and Medicare.
Change the structure of democracy.
These changes will make many of today’s retirement plans obsolete.
Europe, China, and Japan face similar challenges. To plan for the future, it is essential that you plan
for these emerging trends. This presentation previews the highly anticipated book tentatively titled
How the Internet and Longevity Revolution will Transform Retirement, co-authored by Grady Cash
and Bruce Temkin, which will be published in 2005. This presentation forecasts what will happen as
these trends meet. Some of the retirement megatrends that you will learn include.
1. Many seniors will outlive their current life expectancies… they have no choice.
a. More seniors than ever will lead active, healthy lives into their 80’s and beyond.
b. Others will be less fortunate. Medical advances will keep seniors alive who previously
would have died from their illness.
c. Most medical advances do not cure disease. Most medical advances are treatments
after a disease occurs. This trend will continue for scientific and economic reasons.
d. Many seniors will never fully recover from major disease. Instead, they will enter a
declining spiral of illness and loss of independence. The result will be an increasingly
frail segment of the senior population that will go from illness to illness like a flat
stone skipping across a pond of morbidity.
For the first time in the history of civilization, millions will live long
enough to get heart disease…. cancer… Alzheimer’s Disease… all
at the same time. The cost to society will be staggering.
2. Currently only 4.2 million seniors work.
a. What will happen when the number of senior workers doubles… triples…
quadruples… in less than a decade?
b. How will it affect retirement planning? The workplace? The economy?
3. The # 1 financial asset of tens of millions of Boomers is not being adequately protected.
a. What is this asset? Hint: It is not their retirement savings.
b. Why has it been overlooked?
c. How does risk to this asset make many retirement plans obsolete?
d. What can financial advisors do to protect this asset?
What is the #1 financial asset of Baby Boomers?
Copyright 2004 Grady Cash and Bruce Temkin. Reproduction in whole or in part prohibited without written permission.
4. Democracy changes to a new form of government.
a. Six trends will soon merge. These trends are independently verifiable and virtually
inevitable. Yet their combined implications have been overlooked.
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
Seniors vote as a block on senior issues.
A higher percentage of seniors vote than other age groups.
This is especially true in mid-term elections.
The age 55-64 cohort votes almost as frequently as the 65+ coh
The age 55-64 cohort votes similar to seniors on senior issues.
As the Baby Boomers moved into each new stage of life, their demographics
(numbers) and psychographics (the “me” generation) have forced society to conform
to their needs and views.
b. These trends will combine to create massive senior influence on the political process.
It will literally transform democracy in the US and around the world.
c. Learn how this trend will affect retirement planning and when it will occur.
Democracy will change radically. The new term for the new democracy
will become a household word in less than seven years.
5. Huge numbers of Baby Boomers plan to relocate after retirement, creating up to six times
more senior relocations… going from today’s 300,000 relocations annually to 1.8 million.
a. Why will these seniors move?
b. Where will they go?
c. How will they afford to live?
d. How will senior housing change as a result of this trend?
e. What financial planning challenges do these changes create?
6. As a result of all these trends, retirement will no longer be considered a single stage of life, but
seven distinct stages.
a. Each stage offers unique financial planning challenges. What are these stages? How
can we plan for them?
b. Knowledge of these stages enhances communication with the client, builds credibility,
assists the advisor in introducing additional services and/or products to the client, and
provides a structure to discuss difficult financial decisions in a compassionate,
professional manner.
Consulting, presentations, and additional information of these coming trends and how
financial planning will change to adapt to these trends is available. For more information,
contact Grady Cash, CFP™, 5585 Old Hickory Blvd., Nashville, TN 37218 Email:
cashg@comcast.net Ph: 615-255-5941
Copyright 2004 Grady Cash and Bruce Temkin. Reproduction in whole or in part prohibited without written permission.