BANK OF ISRAEL Office of the Spokesperson and Economic Information May 5, 2015 Press Release Debt Developments in the Economy, February–March 2015 Business sector debt declined by about 0.1 percent to around NIS 826 billion in February. Household debt increased by about NIS 1.6 billion (0.4 percent) to around NIS 439 billion at the end of the month. The business sector’s outstanding debt The total outstanding debt of the business sector declined by about NIS 1 billion (0.1 percent) to around NIS 826 billion in February. The decline derived mostly from net repayments of bank loans totaling about NIS 5 billion, and from the effect of the decline in the Consumer Price Index by about 0.7 percent, which lowered the value of CPI-indexed debt. These declines were mostly offset by net new debt raised through tradable bonds in Israel and nonbank loans, and by a depreciation of about 1.1 percent in the value of the shekel vis-à-vis the dollar. In March, the business sector (excluding banks and insurance companies) issued about NIS 2.9 billion in bonds, mostly tradable bonds, slightly higher than the average amount of issuances over the past 12 months (NIS 2.6 billion). Table 1: The Composition of Business Sector Debt Balance (NIS billion) Change (percent) 12-2013 12-2014 2-2015 12-2014 1-2015 2-2015 2013 2014 * 2015 12-2014 1-2015 2-2015 1. Debt to banks 1 2. negotiable bonds in Israel 3. Non-negotiable bonds and nonbank loans 386 385 388 385 393 388 -1.6 -0.2 0.8 -1.0 2.0 -1.2 163 153 153 153 153 153 2.8 -6.2 0.1 -2.4 -0.4 0.5 81 87 90 87 88 90 24.1 6.3 3.8 -3.0 2.1 1.7 4. Debt abroad 2 Total business sector debt 168 190 194 190 193 194 6.9 13.5 2.1 -1.1 1.3 0.8 799 815 826 815 827 826 3.2 2.1 1.3 -1.5 1.4 -0.1 2013 2014 * 2015 12-2014 1-2015 2-2015 2013 2014 * 2015 12-2014 1-2015 2-2015 -10.9 -5.2 2.7 -2.7 7.7 -5.0 -2.8 -1.3 0.7 -0.7 2.0 -1.3 0.0 -5.7 1.2 -3.6 -0.6 1.8 0.0 -3.5 0.8 -2.3 -0.4 1.2 1.8 4.8 3.3 -2.9 1.7 1.7 2.7 5.9 3.8 -3.3 1.9 1.9 14.5 -5.0 0.2 -1.9 0.6 -0.5 9.2 -3.0 0.1 -1.0 0.3 -0.2 5.3 -11.0 7.4 -11.1 9.4 -2.0 0.7 -1.4 0.9 -1.3 1.2 -0.2 Estimated Flow (NIS billion( 1 1. Debt to banks 2. negotiable bonds in Israel 3. Non-negotiable bonds and nonbank loans 4. Debt issued abroad Total business sector debt Change (percent( 1 When comparing balances of debt to banks, it should be taken into account that beginning in January 2011 new Bank Supervision directives referring to provisions for impaired debts came into effect. 2 The reported balance of credit from nonresidents to the business sector is based on reports by Israeli companies. Recently, companies were added to the population of reporting companies, which impacted on the reported balance beginning from December 2006. The effect of adding the new reporting entities is reflected in an increase of about NIS 13 billion in the balance reported for December 2006. * From the beginning of the year. Debt Developments in the Economy, February-March 2015 Page 1 of7 Figure 1: Rate of Change (Year on Year) in the Business Sector's Bank and Nonbank Debt Borrowers Table 2: Debt by Indexation Debt by Indexation (NIS billion) 2/2015 CPI indexed Foreign Currency Unindexed Business sector 248 241 336 Of which: to banks 49 43 296 Of which: to non-banks 200 198 40 Households' debt 171 6 262 Of which: to banks 144 6 250 Of which: to non-banks 27 0 12 Of which: Loans for Housing 165 5 134 Total 826 388 437 439 400 39 304 Debt Developments in the Economy, February-March 2015 % CPI indexed Foreign Currency Unindexed 30% 29% 41% 12% 11% 76% 46% 45% 9% 39% 1% 60% 36% 2% 62% 70% 0% 30% 54% 2% 44% Page 2 of7 Figure 2: Business Sector Bond Issuance Household debt Households’ outstanding debt increased by about NIS 1.6 billion (0.4 percent), to about NIS 439 billion, in February. Of that, the balance of outstanding housing debt remained virtually unchanged, at about NIS 304 billion at the end of February. In March, there was an increase, partly seasonal, in new mortgages taken out, which totaled about NIS 5.6 billion. The average since the beginning of the year is about NIS 4.9 billion (see Figure 3). Debt Developments in the Economy, February-March 2015 Page 3 of7 Table 3: Outstanding Debt Balances of Households Outstanding debt balances of households1 Bilion shekels, current prices, month-ends Balance 2011 2012 2013 2014 12-14 1-15 2 Total household debt According to sources: From banks: מבנקים 6 :מזהFor housing6 which: לדיור Of Not for housing which: Of לא:מזה לדיור investors: מגופים From instituional מוסדיים 7 which: Of :מזהFor housing לדיור Not for housing which: Of לא:מזה לדיור 3 3 מחברות כרטיסיcards אשראיcredit From 4 Government ממשלהcredit) )( (אשראי מכווןdirected which: Of :מזהFor housing לדיור According to uses: housing forסך Totalחוב לדיור סך for housing notחוב Totalשלא לדיור Notes: 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2-15 Rate of change Last Month From beginnin quarter over 5 g of year month 363 383 410 433 433 438 439 1.5% 2.0% 0.4% 318 341 369 393 393 398 400 1.9% 2.5% 0.5% 221 96 5.9 243 98 6.5 264 105 7.3 283 110 8.6 283 110 8.6 285 113 8.7 285 115 8.9 0.7% 5.0% 4.1% 1.6% 4.8% 7.1% 0.1% 1.6% 2.0% 2.1 3.8 2.5 4.1 2.8 4.5 2.7 5.9 2.7 5.9 2.7 6.1 2.7 6.2 1.0% 5.5% 2.9% 9.0% 2.0% 2.1% 9.0 9.6 10.2 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 30.8 27.6 26.1 23.4 23.0 20.6 19.1 17.2 19.1 17.2 18.7 16.8 18.0 16.2 -5.79% -5.79% -7.61% -7.61% -3.85% -3.85% 251 112 269 114 288 122 303 129 303 129 304 133 304 135 0.3% 4.4% 1.0% 4.4% -0.1% 1.4% Individuals, not businesses Excluding credit from foreigners, due to lack of data Credit under the responsibility of credit card companies; Credit under the responsibility or guarantee of banks is included in bank data Credit directed to those eligible for mortgage assistance is the majority of this figure, the remainder is credit to students Last three months Includes loans given with house as collateral. As of December 2012 - about NIS 20 billion. Until August 2013, the data did not differentiate between mortgage-backed loans to households and mortgage-backed loans to the business sector. Such segmentation began in August 2013, and the data were revised retroactively, so that part of the balance was reallocated to business sector debt. Figure 3 :Total Housing Credit from Banks, According to Indexation: New Mortgage Volume Debt Developments in the Economy, February-March 2015 Page 4 of7 The cost of the debt In February, the interest rate spread in the unindexed track narrowed by about 0.03 percentage points, mainly as a result of a decline in the interest on outstanding credit. In the CPI-indexed track, the spread between the interest rate on new bank credit granted and the interest rate on deposits narrowed by about 0.18 percentage points in February, compared with the previous month, mainly as a result of a decline in the interest on marginal indexed credit. In March, the average spread between the yield on CPI-indexed corporate bonds— measured by the Tel Bond 60—and the yields on CPI-indexed government bonds narrowed to about 1.69 percentage points. In March, the average interest rate on new unindexed mortgages (variable-rate interest) declined by about 0.11 percentage points. The average interest rate on new CPI-indexed mortgages (fixed interest) also declined by about 0.11 percentage points. Table 4: The Cost of the Debt Cost of debt spreads Interest rate (percent) 11/14 12/14 01/15 02/15 Average interest on unindexed bank credit 3.60 3.59 3.59 3.57 Interest on CPI-indexed bank credit granted during the month 2.30 2.33 2.47 2.34 Spread between interest on credit and interest on unindexed deposits 3.23 3.23 3.27 3.25 Spread between interest received on credit and interest paid on indexed deposits during the month 1.64 1.62 1.64 1.46 Spread between indexed corporate bonds (Tel-Bond 60) and indexed government bonds 1.46 1.84 1.83 1.77 12/14 01/15 02/15 03/15 Variable rate, unindexed sector 1.51 1.51 1.45 1.34 Fixed rate, CPI-indexed sector 2.18 2.28 2.28 2.17 Cost of bank debt Spreads (percentage points) Housing loans granted during the month by banks – Average Interest rates Debt Developments in the Economy, February-March 2015 Page 5 of7 Figure 4 : Spread between Indexed Corporate Bonds (Tel-Bond 60) and Indexed Government Bonds (monthly average) Figure 5 : New Housing Loans from Banks – Interest Rates in the Unindexed Sector Debt Developments in the Economy, February-March 2015 Page 6 of7 Figure 6 : New Housing Loans from Banks – Interest Rates in the CPI-indexed Sector For links to Data and Statistics on the Bank of Israel website: http://www.boi.org.il/en/dataandstatistics/pages/default.aspx http://www.boi.org.il/en/bankingsupervision/data/pages/tables.aspx?chapterid=13 Debt Developments in the Economy, February-March 2015 Page 7 of7