.. Spatial Distributions of Native and Invasive Shrubs in a Sub-Tropical Forest Natalia Martinez1 Carol Horvitz2 Kelley Erickson2 Matthew Palmer1 1Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA 2Biology Department, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124, USA 12/10/2012 Ilex cassine Schinus terebinthifolius Martinez 1 Abstract Tree invasions can negatively affect ecosystems by altering environmental conditions and displacing native species. Trees provide structure and habitat for forest ecosystems and so exotic tree invasions can have particularly dramatic effects on communities. The negative results of these invasions include alteration of successional dynamics reduced diversity and relative abundance of native species, disruption of important ecosystem functions and high public costs to manage invasive species. Competition, dispersal and environmental heterogeneity can have significant effects on spatial patterns of plants. Plant interactions with their immediate neighbors are most significant, and so the spatial distribution of neighbors can influence the extent of interactions in a system, which will influence the future composition of the system. The Everglades in South Florida has sensitive tree islands whose successful restoration depends on native plant recruitment. There is currently severe invasion in the Everglades by Schinus terebinthifolius. The native shrub Ilex cassine occupies a similar niche and has been identified as an important recruit for tree island restoration and has also been found to establish populations within Schinus thickets. This study examines how the two are spatially distributed in sites where they coexist. Few Ilex individuals were found at the study site and there is no significant spatial autocorrelation in either species. Further analysis will lead to a discussion of what this indicates about the present and future state of Schinus invasion. It is important to halt the spread of this invasive due to its level of disruption in the already disturbed Everglades. Martinez 2 Table of Contents Abstract ……………………………………………………………………………………..………………………..………………..1 Introduction ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….….3 Methods………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…………….…………9 Results ……………………………………………….………………………………………………………………………….……..12 Discussion…………………………………………………………………………………………………….….…………………….19 References ………………………………………………………………..………….……………..………………………………..23 Tables and Figures: Figure 1: Aerial photograph of site location…………………………………………………………………….……………10 Figure 2: Map showing locations of the ten transects………………………………………………………..…………11 Figure 3: Maps of Schinus and Ilex for each transect………………………………………………………….…………14 Figure 4: Graphs showing number of Schinus per plot………………………………………………………………….15 Figure 5: Graphs showing number of Ilex per plot…………………………………………………………………………16 Figure 6: Variograms for each transect……........................................................................................18 Table 1: Demographics by transect...................................................................................................13 Table 2: Showing results of Moran’s I……………………………………………………………………………….………….16 Martinez 3 Introduction Invasive species can drastically affect native ecosystems by changing the ecological and environmental conditions, particularly the species composition and biogeochemistry of the system (Gordon 1998). Invasive plants can out-compete natives for resources, seed dispersers and recruitment, leading to their eventual displacement (Bossard 1994). Trees provide structure and habitat for forest ecosystems and so invasions by exotic tree species in particular can have dramatic effects on communities. The negative results of these invasions include alteration of successional dynamics over time, reduced diversity and relative abundance of native species, disruption of important ecosystem functions as well as high public costs to manage their spread (Inderjit 2005). Vacant niches, fluctuating resources, disturbance and native species which benefit invaders can all make communities more vulnerable to invasion (Lamarque 2011). The invasive species themselves may possess traits that provide them with particular advantage in invasion such as rapid growth rate, the most efficient predictor of invasiveness for invasive trees (Lamarque 2011). Spatial pattern is a crucial aspect of vegetation which has important implications not only for plants themselves but also the organisms who interact with them such as herbivores, pollinators and those for which plants provide a habitat (Dale 1999). It is important to recognize that when studying vegetation the unit of analysis can be expanded from the individual to groups of nearby individuals in patches, which provides a different set of information, and together make up local communities (van der Maarel 1996). Patches are dynamically related to one another and each patch in a space-time mosaic is dependent on its neighbors and develops under conditions partly imposed by them (Watt 1947). Gap size and dynamics such as their formation and filling can have important influences on patches, since new gaps can provide recruitment areas for different Martinez 4 sets of species (van der Maarel 1996). Patch size, spacing and density influence herbivores, pollinators and the longevity/health of the plants themselves. For example, if small patches of trees have prolonged defoliation compared to large patches, small patches will be selected against. These patterns can then be related to such processes. Patches themselves can occur at different levels of densities and patterns. Dispersion is the arrangement of points on a plane and the two alternatives to the null model of randomness are clumped/under dispersed (the presence of one point increases the possibility of finding another in its vicinity) and over dispersed (a points presence reduces the probability of finding another individual nearby). Both individuals and patches can be over and under dispersed. Scale will influence the degree to which dispersion is observed, since large clumps may only be visible from a lower resolution, and patterns within them may only be visible at a finer scale (Rydin 1986, Dale 1999). For example, as the scale increases from a few individuals to the entire forest, it is anticipated that populations will exhibit increased levels of aggregation, as their habitat and resources are also often aggregated (Falster 2001). Spatial pattern can reflect past processes and inform predictions of future processes, such as interspecific competition or population dynamics (Falster 2001,Rydin 1986). The location of plants in space effects range of seed dispersal and therefore the location of future generations. Competition, dispersal and environmental heterogeneity can have significant effects on spatial patterns of plants (Seabloom et al. 2005). Microtopography can produce spatial heterogeneity (van der Maarel 1996). Soil properties such as amount of soil cover, compaction, structure, nutrient, sand and moisture content can strongly influence the establishment of seedlings and can be very heterogeneous in areas as small as one hill slope (Maestre 2003). The spatial pattern of appropriate habitat and therefore survival can be determined through dense Martinez 5 clearly defined patches (areas of high survival) and gaps (areas of low survival) (Maestre 2003). Dispersal mechanisms produce spatial heterogeneity such as clumping in bird dispersed species (Myster 1993). Competition can slow the invasion of a new species even if the established species is an inferior competitor (Hart and Gardner 1997), and the distribution of a species in invaded areas may be different from predictions based on its native distribution due to the competition it faces in the new areas (Poll et al. 2009). Particularly if the distribution of the invader has gaps, the native species can exist in patches and compete for resources such as seed dispersers. Morphological factors such as size and growth pattern of plants can also have a significant impact on spatial processes through interactions such as competition for light and nutrients (Dale 1999). Since interactions with immediate neighbors are most significant the spatial distribution of neighbors can influence the degree of competition experienced (Pacala 1986). Direct resource competition between species should lead to negative cross-correlations at small distances but possibly positive cross-correlations at greater distances, indicative of local spatial segregation but positive association when scaling up to the size of favorable germination patches when species share environmental preference (Dale 1999). Within species, limited dispersal should cause a locally aggregated pattern (positive autocorrelation) (Rauschert 2012). Indirect interactions between species, such as apparent competition, can operate at a different spatial scale than direct interactions, and can drive patterns in different directions (Rauschert 2012). The resulting spatial structure can be studied by examining patterns of autocorrelation and cross correlations at different spatial distances, which can be described by spatial statistics such as correlograms or variograms (Legendre 1993). Patch patterns themselves can have important ecological consequences and so there is much study devoted to the effects of these patterns. Martinez 6 South Florida is particularly vulnerable to invasive species due to its subtropical location, disrupted water flow and highly disturbed natural areas (Lodge 1994). It is also home to the Everglades, an enormous flowing freshwater marsh (Loveless 1959). The Everglades is subject to many human disturbances such as drainage, agriculture and the introduction of invasive species (Lodge 1994). Its mosaic of habitats including hammocks, mangroves, pinelands, sawgrasses and sloughs support an assemblage of species found nowhere else on earth, including many endemic species (Lodge 1994). Tree islands (formed by disrupted water flow which causes soil to build up in one location) are a common feature of the Everglades and host high levels of biodiversity and key habitats for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), American alligators (Alligator mississipiensis), small mammals, reptiles, and many bird species that use tree islands for nesting, foraging, and resting (Lodge 1994). They also regulate nutrient dynamics and are currently being restored in the Everglades (van der Valk 2008). They have undergone many changes including enlargement and shifts in species composition and destruction due to hydrologic alteration and reduced numbers of alligators (Lodge 1994). As alligator abundances increase and the Everglades Restoration plan restores some of the previous water flow, tree islands restoration efforts will fit into these larger efforts. Due to high survivorship under both low and high water conditions, Ilex cassine, Annona glabra and Salix caroliniana are the most suitable species for restoring tree islands in the Everglades (van der Valk 2008). Invasive species are a major concern on these important and sensitive tree islands. Schinus terebinthifolius (Brazilian Pepper) is one of the major invaders in South Florida and threatens tree islands, particularly in the East Everglades where many have been invaded (Ferriter 1997). After Melaleuca quinquenervia, Schinus is the second most severe invader in the Everglades, removing bird feeding habitat and forming closed forests in coastal marshes (Lodge 1994). During the past Martinez 7 10 years, a dramatic increase in density of Schinus has occurred on public lands managed by the South Florida Water Management District (Cuda 2006). Schinus is a small evergreen tree forming dense colonies. It was introduced for horticultural use in the United States in the early 1800’s and then widely distributed in Florida in the late 1920s (Lass 2004). In its natural range in Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil, it is present as scattered individuals in a variety of habitats, from sea level to over 700 m elevation (Ewel et. al., 1982). In its native range it has not been observed to dominate the landscape as it does in southern Florida, where it forms nearly monotypic stands in a wide range of moist to mesic sites, including tropical hardwood hammocks, bay heads, pine rocklands, sawgrass marshes, Muhlenbergia prairies, and the salt marsh-mangrove transition zone (Campbell et. al., 1980; Ewel, 1986). Within the Hole-in the-Donut region of Everglades National Park, stands containing from 200 to more than 2500 Schinus trees per hectare have been found (Ewel et. al. 1982). In South Florida it thrives on disturbed soils created by natural disturbances, such as hurricanes, and is particularly invasive in areas disturbed by human activities, such as abandoned farmlands, roadsides, canal banks (Ewel, 1986). The Exotic Pest Plant Council has listed Schinus on its most invasive list and identified it as a serious threat to natural areas (Cuda 2006). Preliminary investigations on Schinus invasion (employing seed introduction and seedling transplant experiments) in both native (undisturbed) and successional (disturbed) plant communities in southern Florida showed that young successional communities were more susceptible to invasion than older ones, and all successional communities were more susceptible than undisturbed, native communities (Cuda 2006). Pineland habitats have been found to support greater Schinus seed germination, compared to wet prairies (glades) and hammocks. Successful invasion appears to be a function of both seed inputs to an area, the ability of introduced seeds to Martinez 8 germinate and seedlings survival rates, which, if occurring at higher rates than those of native species will lead to competition favoring the invader (Ewel et.al., 1982). Gogue et. al. (1974) suggested that Schinus also has the ability to inhibit the growth of competing vegetation through the production of allelopathic substances. Its potential dispersers are gray catbird, raccoon, opossum, and robins, meaning Schinus is also a competitor for dispersal with native plants who share many of the same dispersers. The negative effects of Schinus on local communities extend past its role as a superior competitor to native species, as stands provide relatively poor wildlife habitat. These stands support lower avian species diversity and total population density when compared to native pinelands and forest-edge habitats (Curnutt 1989). Schinus forest habitats in Everglades National Park host few native and many non-indigenous species, such as Cuban tree frogs (Osteopilus septentrionallis) and brown anole lizards (Anolis sagrei) (Ferriter 1997). These declines in diversity resulting from species-rich habitat being replaced by biologically uniform habitats, stress the need to protect native habitats from exotic pest plant encroachment. A number of native and exotic trees (Myrsine floridana, Persea borbonia, Ilex cassine, Nectandra coriacea, Psidium guajava) are known to establish small populations within Schinus stands (Ferriter 1997). The native species, Ilex cassine (Dahoon Holly) is a flexible species able to live under many conditions ranging from moist woods and cypress ponds to marsh margins and bays (Native Plant Database 2012). It is a small evergreen tree, with stiff small leaves and red fruits that are similar in size to those found on Schinus. Owing to its suitability for tree island recruitment, easy identification and the fact that it has been observed to establish populations within Schinus stands, it was chosen for comparison with Schinus (Ferriter 1997). Martinez 9 This study explores the spatial distribution of Schinus and Ilex at Amelia Earhart Park, a park with a forested area exhibiting many of the native and exotic species typical of south Florida and also having varying levels of elevation and therefore water levels, leading to similar habitat types of the Everglades. We used indices of dispersion to determine how the two species interact spatially, whether Schinus is following the patterns described in the literature and how the two species spatially coexist. Both species occupy similar niches and produce similar fruits, so if Schinus grows in higher densities, it may attract more dispersers (such as birds and raccoons) since less energy is needed to consume an equal amount of food in a smaller amount of space. This could create a positive feedback loop, leading to more dispersal and establishment of Schinus, while hindering Ilex dispersal. This could lead to gaps in Ilex patches as individuals die and fewer Ilex seedlings are recruited, leading to an invasion of Ilex territory due to Schinus’ fast growth and possible superior seed dispersal. Identifying the mechanisms that drive these patterns are not within the scope of this study however since we do not have a temporal component, however it is important to keep these drivers and potential future processes in mind. We predicted that Schinus would be found growing in dense monospecific stands exhibit higher spatial autocorrelation than Ilex. Methods In order to study the spatial relationships between the two species we first explored many potential sites in Miami Dade County for size, presence of both species, densities of each species, accessibility and safety. We chose the forest surrounding a mountain bike trail in Amelia Earhart Park, located at 25.893649°, -80.283054°. The trail and forest are located in the north-west corner of the park and the area is approximately 32 ha (Figure 1). Martinez 10 Figure 1. Aerial photograph of site location, Amelia Earhart Park Mountain Bike Trails We set a grid over a map of the plot, used the random number generator in R to produce random coordinates on which to set transect start points, then generated random compass directions at which to establish ten 50 m transects, as suggested by the USDA and Cooperative State Research Education and Extension Service’s Forest Ecosystem Rapid Assessment method. Transects were located throughout the entire 32 ha network of bike trails and their locations can be seen in Figure 2, labeled alphabetically. We then walked down the length of each transect and recorded the locations of Schinus or Ilex individuals within 1m either side of the transect. We recorded whether the individuals were adults, juveniles (shorter than 1m), or fruiting. Transect D had to be replaced because we encountered an unexpected paintball field and building. Martinez 11 Figure 2. Positions of the transects used to sample Ilex and Schinus within the mountain bike trail area of Amelia Earhart Park. The black circles indicate the starting point of each transect and the green circles indicate the end points. Figure 1 and 2 are roughly the same scale and this grid was laid over the forested bike trail area in the previous photograph. Due to the long and narrow shape of our transects we were not able to perform nearest neighbor analyses since the nearest neighbors could be lying outside of the study area. In order to deal with this issue we divided each of our transects into twenty five 2 x 2 m plots (Cressie 1991). We then treated plots as the unit of analysis and used the number of individuals per plot to analyze how the two species were distributed, using tests other than nearest neighbor analyses. Spatial autocorrelation measures how the similarity between plots changes over distance. This can be used to analyze how the species composition of two plots differs depending on their physical distance apart. Moran’s I is a function that measures autocorrelation by taking the counts of each plot, and the inverse distance matrix (describing how far apart plots are) and generates the observed Moran's I, the expected Moran's I, the standard deviation, and a p-value. To Martinez 12 generate the inverse distance matrix, we first find the distance matrix, take its inverse, and replace the diagonal with zeros (because stations should be 0 m apart from themselves). If the p-value is less than 0.05, we reject the null hypothesis that there is no autocorrelation in the data and it means that the observed value of I is significantly greater than the expected value of I. The statistical package used to conduct this test in R was ape: Analyses of Phylogenetics and Evolution (Paradis 2004). Variograms were also used to quantify the spatial variability of the data and identify the scale at which the variance was highest. The semi-variogram is based on modeling the squared differences in the z values (in this case the number of individuals per plot) as a function of the distances between all the known points. A common hypothesis in spatial statistics is that plots near each other will be similar and so at smaller distances there will be less variance and at larger distances there will be a higher variance (indicating larger differences in numbers of individuals present in this case). This test was run using the R package GeoR: A package for geostatistical analysis (Ribeiro 2001). We only performed these tests on transects which had more than two individuals of the species. Results The abundances of both species were low and irregular. Transects supported different total abundances of each species and different patch sizes (Figure 3). Schinus individuals were found on 9 out of 10 transects. 3 transects had relatively high numbers of individuals ranging from 13 to 14. Ilex individuals were only found on 2 transects ; Transect A had one individual and Transect E had 33 Ilex. 31 juvenile plants were found on 7 transects. All juveniles were found within 5 meters of Martinez 13 an adult. 26% of Ilex found were juveniles and 33% of Schinus were juvenile. 5 fruiting plants were found on 2 transects. Table 1. Demographics of Ilex and Schinus by transect Transect/Species # Juveniles # Adults # Fruiting A/ Ilex 0 1 0 A/Schinus 5 9 0 B/Schinus 1 0 0 C/Schinus 4 9 0 E/Schinus 4 2 0 E/Ilex 9 24 3 G/Schinus 0 5 0 H/Schinus 2 2 0 I/Schinus 0 8 2 J/Schinus 0 2 0 K/ Schinus 6 8 0 Martinez 14 Figure 3. All individuals of both Ilex cassine (circles) and Schinus terebinthifolius (triangles) recorded on each transect within the study area. Solid triangles and circles represent juveniles. Transect E held the most individuals. Transect F had no individuals of either species and is not shown. Martinez 15 Figure 4. Numbers of individuals of Schinus per plot as a function of distance along each transect. Martinez 16 Figure 5. Numbers of individuals of Ilex per plot as a function of distance along each transect Transects A, C and E were found to be insignificantly autocorrelated for Schinus as the observed I values are higher than the expected, but the p values are still higher than 0.05. Ilex showed the same on Transect E. Schinus showed the strongest relationship on transect A. However, none of the results were significant and so there is no strong autocorrelation in the data. Table 2. Results of Moran’s I on transects with more than 2 individuals, showing whether probability is low enough to reject null hypothesis of no spatial autocorrelation. Moran's I Results Transect Observed Expected Stand. Dev p Value Schinus A 0.054 -0.042 0.054 0.078 Schinus B -0.042 -0.042 0.004 0.903 Schinus C 0.042 -0.042 0.050 0.092 Schinus E -0.012 -0.042 0.057 0.608 Schinus G -0.079 -0.042 0.063 0.553 Schinus H -0.066 -0.042 0.050 0.621 Schinus I -0.037 -0.042 0.065 0.949 Schinus K -0.037 -0.042 0.065 0.949 Ilex E -0.012 -0.042 0.058 0.613 Martinez 17 There appears to be spatial correlation according to the variograms as the line is not flat for any of the transects and so the variogram is not constant across all distances. 3 of the transects showed correlation at short distances and an increase in variation with distance until about 35 to 40 m when variance dropped. 2 transects showed a rough decrease in variation with distance implying that plots further away were more similar. The other transects showed cyclicity which could be linked to underlying factors in the terrain or, more likely, limited data. However, the transect with the highest number of individuals still exhibited cyclicity. Despite the lack of clear direction in the trend, the range and nugget of the data can be informative. The nugget is the gap above zero of the variance on which the line begins. It can indicate error in measurement or evidence of sparse data. Nuggets varied for each transect and were between .082 and 2.5. The sill represents the variance of the random field and usually appears as an asymptote with the variograms becoming constant. Even though there are no clear sills, this is evidence of nonstationary variables. The range indicates the distance at which data are no longer spatially auto correlated. Since there were no clear sills we observed no clear ranges either. Martinez 18 Martinez 19 Figure 6. Variogram results for all transects with more than 2 individuals of the species in question Discussion Despite initial observations of what appeared to be clumping in the field, further analysis showed that the spatial autocorrelation was not significant and so there is no strong evidence of pattern in the dispersion of these plants. This indicates that neither of the observed species lives in dense clusters as was predicted for Schinus. The presence of juveniles of both species means both are likely to be in the future composition of the park depending on survival rates. Many juveniles Martinez 20 had large diameters indicating that they were robust and established and likely to persist into the next generation. Since Schinus was not found to grow in dense monospecific stands and Ilex (among other species) were found living among them, there is opportunity for the parks vegetation to compete with Schinus. Particularly if the Ilex population increases or Schinus’ doesn’t increase. However this finding could be an artifact of the sampling method and perhaps the clumping was merely not observed. What the data do not describe however, is that despite the data reflecting one individual of Schinus at a spatial point, the individuals are large and sprawling and can have diameters of many meters, preventing other species from occupying that space. What graphically may not look like a clump may indeed be a clump in space of many large individuals whose bases are many meters away from each other but whose canopies actually connect. We encountered this on several transects. The sprawling nature of the species made it difficult to identify separate individuals as well. Often times branches of individuals fell into our transect (therefore competing for light with potential natives and other individuals) but since their base did not originate in the transect we did not record them. Since these occupy the space between the individuals represented, they could contribute to a clumping phenomenon that was not measured. If there are in fact dense clumps of Schinus and the juveniles present can indicate a probability of their persistence into the future of the forest, these dense stands can later serve as seed sources for further expansion (Rouget 2004). Since distribution is a function of dispersal (short- and long-distance) and habitat suitability, as the invasion progresses, more of the total area suitable for Schinus establishment will be occupied (Rouget 2004). Martinez 21 Although the study area was relatively small, within it there was much variation in habitat type and elevation. Some areas were muddy or submerged, others were flat, dry and pine dominated and others were very uneven and densely occupied by invasive plant species. Dioscorea bulbifera (air potato), Casuarina equisetifolia and Melaleuca quinquenervia were the most common invasive plants observed. This can explain some of the variation in densities, frequencies and species composition. Schinus recruitment depends on frugivore consumption and subsequent seed dispersal (Panetta 1997), whereas the importance of these processes for Ilex is not known. If Schinus is outcompeting Ilex for dispersers then perhaps Ilex was present in lower numbers as a result of limited dispersal. Perhaps this can also explain differences in spatial patterns, as deposition of fecal matter from mammals can release a group of many seeds at once in one place, which we observed in the field. In the field our team also observed, and was informed by the park manager, that Schinus increases the damage potential of other invasive species such as air potato vines. The tangled sprawling nature of Schinus canopies (branches often reach the ground before growing upwards again) can raise air potato off the ground and into the canopy, after which air potato robs other plants of sunlight by covering them with its expansive leaves. Future studies could analyze how the presence of Schinus affects the abundance of other invasive plant species to test the degree to which this is significant. The sampling plan selected compromised our study by limiting the kinds of statistical analysis we could have done and by excluding individuals whose branches were present but whose base was not. A comparison of sampling methods using simulated species maps with varying levels of abundance and spatial autocorrelation showed that transect sampling had the highest Martinez 22 variability, returning estimates of 19-94% cover for a species with an actual cover of 50% (Goslee 2006). Transect and random methods were also likely to miss rare species entirely unless large numbers of quadrats were sampled (Goslee 2006). In future work a different and more thorough sampling scheme, such as setting up random circular plots covering at least 10% of the area, will provide more robust data that can lend themselves to more kinds of analysis and therefore more informative results. A design that allows for several spatial scales of analysis or a lower resolution may also resolve the issue caused by Schinus occupying large areas of space and may detect the patterns exhibited by that species. Perhaps other patches with dense Ilex populations could be found and interactions between the two species observed. Future interesting tests would analyze and compare gap lengths and patch sizes using new local variance methods (Dale 1999). We would also like to test for positive cross-correlations between the two species and see if segregation from each other could indicate the occurrence of fine scale competition. We could also test for negative cross correlation. The dispersal kernel would also be very interesting to calculate in order to discuss the future spread of Schinus. This study has provided a basis for what areas to set up seed traps and areas where high abundances of the two species could be found again for sampling. Schinus threatens the health of many ecosystems worldwide but south Florida with its particular vulnerabilities merits more study and attention, particularly with regards to the Everglades. Understanding the spatial structures can help to predict and understand potential spread and inform management plans. Martinez 23 References Bossard, C.C, M. Rejmanek. Herbivory, growth, seed production, and resprouting of an exotic invasive shrub Cytisus scoparius.(1994). 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