Figure S1

Electronic Supplementary Material
RSPB-2012-0857 – Reconstructing Past Species Assemblages Reveals the Changing
Patterns and Drivers of Extinction Through Time
Lindell Bromham, Robert Lanfear, Phillip Cassey, Gillian Gibb, Marcel Cardillo
Figure S1: P-value distributions for univariate models predicting extinction risk
Distributions of p-values for univariate models predicting extinction probability from species
biological traits, using regression on phylogenetically independent contrasts on a sample of 1000
alternative phylogenies drawn from the posterior distribution. The blue line marks p=0.05, so the
proportion of observations that fall to the left of this line indicates the number of alterative
phylogenies in the posterior set which return a significant result for the relationship between the
trait and extinction risk. We consider extinctions in three historical periods - E1 (pre-human), E2
(post-Polynesian) and E3 (post-European) – and threatened species in the contemporary period
(E4). Only body size, size dimorphism and flight ability are analysed for period E1 and E2, to avoid
making inference about life history, habitat or niche for species that went extinct before natural
history records began. See main text for details of data and analysis.