POPULATION GROWTH 2001 TO 2011 MURRUMBIDGEE LOCAL HEALTH DISTRICT Summary of changes in official ABS Estimated Resident Populations from 2001 to 2011 Date: December 2012 Author: Kim Gilchrist, Epidemiologist, Public Health Unit, MLHD Kim.Gilchrist@gsahs.health.nsw.gov.au Copies available: www.mlhd.health.nsw.gov.au/about/health-statistics Murrumbidgee Local Health District ABN 71 172 428 618 Locked Bag 10, Wagga Wagga NSW 2650 Tel 02 6933 9100 Fax 02 6933 9188 Website www.mlhd.health.nsw.gov.au POPULATION GROWTH IN MLHD The following is an excerpt from the Australian Bureau of Statistics publication on Population Growth from 2001 to 2011 (3218.0 - Regional Population Growth, Australia, 2011, ABS 31/07/2012) Inland change Population growth occurred in a number of SA2s within major regional cities and towns in inland NSW. The largest growth between June 2001 and June 2011 was in Orange - North (up 3,700 people), Queanbeyan West Jerrabomberra (3,600), Wagga Wagga - South (3,500), and Albury - East (3,300). The largest declines over this ten year period were in Broken Hill (down 2,000 people) and Moree (down 1,500). Of the remaining mainly rural SA2s, the largest growth occurred in Queanbeyan Region (up 4,200 people) and Yass Region (2,400), both of which border the Australian Capital Territory. There was also large growth in Orange Region (up 1,100 people) and Tamworth Region (1,100), both of which surround major regional centres. Reflecting the effects of drought in many parts of rural NSW, more than half of these predominantly rural areas had population declines in the ten years to 2011, with the largest loss n Griffith Region (down 1,700 people). See map below for comparison of SA2s (statistical area 2) with LGAs The SA2 – which are the new standard geographical classifications used by the ABS – split up some LGAs, but combine others. What they do is split off the larger towns or regional centres and refer to the rural outskirts as a “Region”, for example there is Deniliquin, Moama and Deniliquin Region SA2s in south western MLHD – which covers the Murray, Wakool, Deniliquin and Conargo LGAs. Figure 1 – Map of MLHD showing LGA and SA2 boundaries 2|P a g e Public Health Unit – MLHD (Document1) The Figure 2 and Table 1 show the population growth for the SA2s indicating specific areas of growth in Moama (increased by 1239 people) Albury-East (3348 people), Wagga Wagga-South (3448 people), Wagga Wagga - East (1057 people) and Griffith (1134). Figure 2 - Population growth (percentage) by SA2 from 2001 to 2011 Deniliquin and Deniliquin region experienced significant population decline as did the Griffith Region, Narrandera, Leeton, Hay, and West Wyalong. Despite these pockets of decrease, the growth in the regional centres bolsters the MLHD population and shows the overall area has increased in population over the 10 year period. Table 2 and Figure 3 show the same data but for the LGA geography. Wagga Wagga LGA has increased by close to 5000 people since 2001, Albury nearly 4,000 people and more significantly the small LGA of Murray had a high percentage increase with Murray Shire increasing by 16% (1000 people) over 10 years. Other areas of increase were Young (664) and Corowa (517) Shires. What the SA2 information adds to our more typical population data, is more specifically that the growth in Wagga Wagga was to the north and south of the city, and for Albury to the east and Thurgoona; and for Murray Shire – the Moama township, whereas Corowa Shire’s growth was in outlying areas around the town and Young’s growth was in the township and decrease in the outer regions. Where the Griffith urban area (SA2) grew by over 1000 people, the decline in outer areas shows the Griffith Shire only increasing by 688 people. 3|P a g e Public Health Unit – MLHD (Document1) Figure 3 - Population growth (percentage) by LGA from 2001 to 2011 The LGAs with the most significant decrease in population proportionally (from 14 to 20%) were: Jerilderie, Carrathool, Urana, Wakool, Lockhart, Hay and Conargo. Additionally Deniliquin, Wakool, Hay, Carrathool, Leeton, Narrandera and Bland decreased by 500 to 1000 people over 10 years. These figures do not include the Lake Cargelligo area, however overall the Condobolin SA2 decreased by 11 per cent. Overall the MLHD had a slow growth rate of 0.1 per cent per annum from 2001 to 2011. The population has increased by 3643 people. There appears to be some shift of the population from outer rural areas into the regional centres of Albury, Wagga Wagga and Griffith and growth in the township of Moama as further residential development occurs on the north side of the Murray River from the larger town of Echuca (VIC). 4|P a g e Public Health Unit – MLHD (Document1) Table 1- Estimated Resident Population by SA2 and year ERP at 30 June STATISTICAL AREAS LEVEL 4 (SA4), Statistical Areas Level 3 (SA3) and Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) Change 2001-2011pr % no. 20012011pr(a) % 2001 no. 2002 no. 2003 no. 2004 no. 2005 no. 2006 no. 2007pr no. 2008pr no. 2009pr no. 2010pr no. 2011pr no. Young Young Region Condobolin West Wyalong 9890 7734 8089 6637 9956 7647 7971 6569 10050 7607 7823 6484 10155 7567 7676 6380 10304 7562 7548 6303 10465 7592 7444 6315 10472 7464 7298 6250 10477 7466 7286 6134 10492 7497 7246 6135 10501 7569 7193 6050 10506 7599 7199 6001 6.2 -1.7 -11.0 -9.6 616 -135 -890 -636 0.6 -0.2 -1.2 -1.0 Albury - East Albury - North Albury - South Albury Region Lavington Total Albury 9872 9227 11026 11259 14642 56026 10162 9379 11119 11207 14647 56514 10528 9438 11115 11146 14612 56839 10743 9493 11097 11166 14651 57150 11222 9606 11114 11157 14696 57795 11613 9687 11218 11240 14791 58549 12078 9707 11146 11205 14720 58856 12426 9716 11165 11185 14645 59137 12724 9681 11093 11165 14528 59191 13014 9648 11049 11147 14454 59312 13220 9634 10910 11132 14426 59322 33.9 4.4 -1.1 -1.1 -1.5 5.9 3348 407 -116 -127 -216 3296 3.0 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.6 Lower Murray Hay Wentworth - Buronga Wentworth-Balranald Region Total Lower Murray 3599 6309 4226 14134 3600 6247 4154 14001 3573 6191 4087 13851 3537 6149 3997 13683 3526 6155 3950 13631 3516 6197 3909 13622 3421 6225 3840 13486 3317 6204 3839 13360 3236 6085 3812 13133 3169 6017 3810 12996 3097 5921 3778 12796 -13.9 -6.1 -10.6 -9.5 -502 -388 -448 -1338 -1.5 -0.6 -1.1 -1.0 Upper Murray exc. Albury Corowa Corowa Region Deniliquin Deniliquin Region Moama Tocumwal - Finley - Jerilderie Total Upper Murray exc. Albury 5655 6348 8333 8332 4028 9677 42373 5710 6333 8229 8205 4164 9638 42279 5763 6351 8107 8056 4288 9534 42099 5824 6334 7949 7931 4379 9470 41887 5936 6361 7835 7827 4497 9530 41986 6071 6489 7731 7753 4719 9709 42472 6013 6466 7652 7536 4997 9717 42381 5960 6501 7558 7379 5155 9710 42263 5903 6595 7522 7262 5236 9687 42205 5838 6637 7400 7129 5260 9643 41907 5764 6679 7317 7006 5267 9549 41582 1.9 5.2 -12.2 -15.9 30.8 -1.3 -1.9 109 331 -1016 -1326 1239 -128 -791 0.2 0.5 -1.3 -1.7 2.7 -0.1 -0.2 112533 112794 112789 112720 113412 114643 114723 114760 114529 114215 113700 1.0 1167 0.1 MURRAY Albury TOTAL MURRAY RIVERINA 5|P a g e ERP at 30 June Change STATISTICAL AREAS LEVEL 4 (SA4), Statistical Areas Level 3 (SA3) and Statistical Areas Level 2 (SA2) Griffith - Murrumbidgee (West) Griffith (NSW) Griffith Region Leeton Narrandera Total Griffith - Murrumbidgee (West) 2001 no. 2002 no. 2003 no. 2004 no. 2005 no. 2006 no. 2007pr no. 2008pr no. 2009pr no. 2010pr no. 2011pr no. 17479 14799 10658 7022 49958 17561 14630 10647 6921 49759 17595 14379 10628 6781 49383 17644 14183 10600 6656 49083 17801 14038 10564 6585 48988 18026 13930 10597 6532 49085 18116 13668 10466 6431 48681 18327 13529 10389 6390 48635 18481 13457 10385 6395 48718 18538 13281 10297 6370 48486 18613 13107 10224 6352 48296 6.5 -11.4 -4.1 -9.5 -3.3 1134 -1692 -434 -670 -1662 0.6 -1.2 -0.4 -1.0 -0.3 Tumut - Tumbarumba Tumbarumba Tumut Tumut Region Total Tumut - Tumbarumba 3779 6432 5038 15249 3768 6426 4998 15192 3730 6450 5044 15224 3700 6331 4952 14983 3698 6319 4922 14939 3734 6337 4936 15007 3657 6328 4905 14890 3598 6332 4859 14789 3574 6417 4830 14821 3535 6464 4810 14809 3477 6500 4772 14749 -8.0 1.1 -5.3 -3.3 -302 68 -266 -500 -0.8 0.1 -0.5 -0.3 Wagga Wagga Cootamundra Gundagai Junee Temora Wagga Wagga - East Wagga Wagga - North Wagga Wagga - South Wagga Wagga - West Wagga Wagga Region Total Wagga Wagga 7894 3664 5869 6983 15338 3062 18204 12530 14597 88141 7850 3678 5884 6905 15435 3089 18495 12622 14525 88483 7782 3672 5866 6800 15502 3097 18753 12654 14382 88508 7756 3670 5868 6711 15607 3107 19092 12650 14294 88755 7796 3690 5914 6692 15766 3140 19628 12661 14281 89568 7811 3719 6017 6700 15958 3201 20224 12734 14401 90765 7678 3694 5981 6509 16011 3211 20676 12797 14458 91015 7595 3691 5990 6475 16086 3299 21172 12792 14509 91609 7672 3693 6062 6549 16198 3404 21414 12698 14532 92222 7621 3690 6040 6546 16299 3506 21544 12453 14499 92198 7619 3665 6029 6500 16395 3626 21652 12232 14360 92078 -3.5 0.0 2.7 -6.9 6.9 18.4 18.9 -2.4 -1.6 4.5 -275 1 160 -483 1057 564 3448 -298 -237 3937 -0.4 0.0 0.3 -0.7 0.7 1.7 1.7 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 153348 153434 153115 152821 153495 154857 154586 155033 155761 155493 155123 1.2 1775 0.1 6575217 6628951 6672577 6707189 6756457 6816087 6885204 6975891 7069707 7144928 7211468 9.7 636251 0.9 TOTAL RIVERINA TOTAL NEW SOUTH WALES 2001-2011pr % no. 20012011pr(a) % 6|P a g e Table 2 - Estimated Resident Population by LGA and year ERP at 30 June Local Government Area Albury (C) M Berrigan (A) M Bland (A) M Boorowa (A) M Carrathool (A) M Conargo (A) M Coolamon (A) M Cootamundra (A) M Corowa Shire (A) M Deniliquin (A) M Greater Hume Shire (A) M Griffith (C) M Gundagai (A) M Harden (A) M Hay (A) M Jerilderie (A) M Junee (A) M Leeton (A) M Lockhart (A) M Murray (A) M Murrumbidgee (A) M Narrandera (A) M Temora (A) M Tumbarumba (A) M Tumut Shire (A) M Urana (A) M Wagga Wagga (C) M Wakool (A) M Young (A) M MLHD TOTAL NEW SOUTH WALES Change 2001-2011pr % no. 8.4 3846 1.8 144 -9.6 -637 0.6 14 -19.5 -648 -13.1 -238 2.2 91 -2.5 -194 4.8 517 -12.2 -1016 20012011pr(a) % 0.8 0.2 -1.0 0.1 -2.2 -1.4 0.2 -0.3 0.5 -1.3 2001 no. 45621 8138 6655 2455 3316 1823 4122 7695 10785 8333 2002 no. 46223 8130 6587 2415 3275 1815 4114 7653 10839 8229 2003 no. 46672 8061 6502 2402 3176 1787 4095 7589 10934 8107 2004 no. 47028 8033 6398 2405 3092 1761 4096 7566 11004 7949 2005 no. 47731 8121 6320 2395 2993 1747 4115 7610 11158 7835 2006 no. 48482 8317 6332 2396 2918 1734 4176 7627 11432 7731 2007pr no. 48857 8363 6269 2350 2866 1713 4167 7533 11342 7652 2008pr no. 49171 8380 6153 2395 2816 1681 4191 7460 11334 7558 2009pr no. 49253 8366 6153 2441 2795 1642 4210 7540 11365 7522 2010pr no. 49397 8346 6067 2462 2731 1610 4222 7497 11338 7400 2011pr no. 49467 8282 6018 2469 2668 1585 4213 7501 11302 7317 10537 24604 3792 3860 3599 1922 5905 11925 3578 6156 2662 6739 6337 3735 11470 1431 56722 4929 11850 10423 24594 3805 3813 3600 1873 5921 11912 3501 6255 2652 6639 6276 3725 11424 1410 57222 4835 11910 10297 24535 3798 3776 3573 1823 5903 11880 3440 6335 2626 6501 6188 3687 11494 1380 57505 4743 12008 10251 24534 3795 3725 3537 1776 5906 11825 3371 6395 2606 6385 6113 3658 11283 1343 57916 4664 12110 10191 24705 3815 3721 3526 1734 5953 11769 3318 6464 2585 6317 6109 3656 11241 1323 58656 4616 12265 10192 24921 3844 3739 3516 1707 6057 11785 3299 6677 2593 6267 6124 3692 11273 1306 59646 4554 12432 10127 24907 3794 3696 3421 1649 6002 11663 3248 6897 2518 6175 5961 3616 11233 1277 60321 4393 12400 10108 25107 3785 3645 3317 1614 6021 11570 3207 7031 2472 6133 5929 3559 11191 1250 61024 4316 12417 10097 25259 3787 3619 3236 1598 6103 11582 3177 7113 2420 6151 5973 3535 11247 1225 61436 4255 12461 10087 25265 3781 3663 3169 1570 6092 11489 3150 7154 2378 6132 5970 3496 11274 1202 61489 4155 12491 10039 25292 3753 3680 3097 1534 6091 11406 3082 7159 2338 6123 5928 3440 11272 1180 61509 4080 12514 -4.7 2.8 -1.0 -4.7 -13.9 -20.2 3.1 -4.4 -13.9 16.3 -12.2 -9.1 -6.5 -7.9 -1.7 -17.5 8.4 -17.2 5.6 -498 688 -39 -180 -502 -388 186 -519 -496 1003 -324 -616 -409 -295 -198 -251 4787 -849 664 -0.5 0.3 -0.1 -0.5 -1.5 -2.2 0.3 -0.4 -1.5 1.5 -1.3 -1.0 -0.7 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 0.8 -1.9 0.5 280696 281070 280817 280525 281989 284769 284410 284835 285561 285077 284339 1.3 3643 0.1 6575217 6628951 6672577 6707189 6756457 6816087 6885204 6975891 7069707 7144928 7211468 9.7 636251 0.9 7|P a g e DATA SOURCE: Australian Bureau of Statistics Catalogue: 3218.0 Regional Population Growth, Australia Released at 11.30am (Canberra time) 31 July 2012 3218.0 Population Estimates by Local Government Area, 2001 to 2011 3218.0 Population Estimates by Statistical Area Level 2, 2001 to 2011 Maps drawn using Esri® ArcMap™ 10.1. 8|P a g e