SUPPORTING INFORMATION FOR Potential impacts of oil and gas development and climate change on migratory reindeer calving grounds across the Russian Arctic Tobias Kuemmerle a,b *,Leonid Baskin c, Pedro J. Leitão a Alexander V. Prishchepov d, Kirsten Thonicke b, and Volker C. Radeloff e a b c d Geography Department, Humboldt-University Berlin Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin Germany Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, Telegraphenberg A62, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany A. N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Russian Academy of Sciences, 33, Leninsky prospect, 119071 Moscow, Russia Leibniz Institute for Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO), Theodor-Lieser-Strasse 2, 06120 Halle (Saale), Germany e Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, Madison, WI 53706, USA * Corresponding author phone: +49 30 2093 9372; fax: +49 30 2093 6850 tobias.kuemmerle@geo.hu-berlin.de Kuemmerle et al. 1 APPENDIX S1: SUMMARY OF CALVING GROUND DATA USED Table S1: Summary of calving ground data used in the Maxent and Boosted Regression Trees. Population trends based on Baskin & Miller (2007). Acronyms: CG = calving ground, D = decreasing population, S stable population, I increasing population, U = unknown population trend, O = observations of zoologists, H = information from hunters, HM = information from hunting managers. No. Reindeer population Type 1 Taymyr Wild 2 Upper Elovka Wild River Mamontovaya Wild and Tundrovaya Rivers Elgygytkyn Wild Lake 3 4 5 Anadyr River 6 Khodutka and Wild Asacha Rivers 1 Khodutka and Wild Asacha Rivers 2 Kronotskaya Wild River 7 8 9 Wild Population Type of Time period References size and CG covered trend * information 70000 D O 1964-2000 Yakushkin et al., 1970; Kuksov, 1981; Kolpashchikov, 2000 300 U O 1945-2012 Averin, 1948; Voropanov et al., 2003; Mosolov Fil, 2010 30000 D O 1969-2012 Baskin, 2009 Chernyavsky, 1984; Zheleznov-Chukotsky & Panovik, 2003 8500 S O 1980-2001 Chernyavsky, 1984; Zheleznov-Chukotsky & Panovik, 2003 50000 D O 1980-2001 Averin, 1948; Voropanov et al., 2003; Mosolov Fil, 2010 50 U O 1945-2012 Averin, 1948; Voropanov et al., 2003; Mosolov Fil, 2010 50 U O 1945-2012 Averin, 1948; Voropanov et al., 2003; Mosolov Fil, 2010 1000 I O Wild 30000 D O Wild 40000 D O Wild 40000 D O Wild 300 I H, M 1945-2012 Egorov, 1965; Safronov, Reshetnikov & Akhremenko 1999; Popov, 2003 1955-2012 Egorov, 1965; Safronov et al., 1999; Popov, 2003 1955-2012 Egorov, 1965; Safronov et al., 1999; Popov, 2003 1955-2012 Egorov, 1965; Safronov et al., 1999; Popov, 2003 2001 Egorov, 1965; Safronov et al., 1999; Popov, 2003 1955-2012 Egorov, 1965; Safronov et al., 1999; Popov, 2003 1955-2012 Egorov, 1965; Safronov et 12 Ulakhan-Tas Mountains Churpuniya Mountains 1 Churpuniya Mountains 2 Lena Delta 13 Kystyk Plateau Wild 15000 D O 14 Pronchishchev Wild 15000 D O 10 11 Kuemmerle et al. 2 15 16 17 18 19 a Upland SuruyakhDzhang Upland Pronchishchev a Bay Kalamisamo Peninsula KamenKherbey Uplands Verkhnetazov Wild 31000 D O Wild 300 U O Wild 5000 S O Wild 110000 D O Wild 1000 D H, M 145000 D O al., 1999; Popov, 2003 1955-2012 Egorov, 1965; Safronov et al., 1999; Popov, 2003 1937, 1990 Popov, 1939; Rutilevsky, 1939; Uchitkin, 1990 1980-2012 Malygina, 2000 1964-2000 Yakushkin et al., 1970; Kuksov, 1981; Kolpashchikov, 2000 2001 Azarov & Afanasev, 2003; Kupriyanov 2003 1964-2012 Yakushkin et al., 1970; Kuksov, 1981; Kolpashchikov, 2000; Larin V.V. 2012, pers. comm. 2001 Kupriyanov, 2003; Novikov et al., 2003; Shirshov, 2003 2001 Kupriyanov, 2003; Novikov et al., 2003; Makhov, 2003; Shirshov, 2003 1973-2001 Kupriyanov, 2003; Novikov et al., 2003; Shirshov, 2003 1940 - * Land management Chaunsky, 1940 1940 - * Land management Chaunsky, 1940 20 Puraagapamok Wild h 21 Gydangryada Wild 2000 D O 22 Tazovskypen Wild 30000 D H, M 23 Srednesosv Wild 5500 D H, M Semidomestic Semidomestic 2500 U O 2500 U O Semidomestic Semidomestic Semidomestic Semidomestic 2500 U O 1940 - * 2500 U O 1940 - * 2500 U O 1940 - * 2500 U O 1940 - * Semidomestic SemiMnt Pytlyan domestic Telekey River SemiMountains in domestic low part of Myrgovaam Semi- 2500 U O 1940 - * 2500 U O 1940 - * 2500 U O 1940 - U* 2500 U O 1940 - * 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 Angarka River Apapelgyn River Headwaters Filippova Mount Filippova Urney Kevem River Headwaters Koyvelvegyrgy n River Headwaters Mlelyn River uppers Kuemmerle et al. Land management Chaunsky, 1940 Land management Chaunsky, 1940 Land management Chukotsky, 1940 Land management Chukotsky, 1940 Land management Chaunsky, 1940 Land management Chaunsky, 1940 Land management Chukotsky, 1940 Land management 3 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 River Headwaters Nyambonda River Oloychan River Uppers Pyrkakayvaya m River Headwaters Yanromkyvaa m Rynnatinin River Headwaters Pogynden River Headwaters Tauchakh River Pezhenka River Headwaters Uvnukveem River Yarovaya River Headwaters Saletayakha River domestic Chaunsky, 1940 Semidomestic Semidomestic Semidomestic 2500 U O 1940 - * Land management Chaunsky, 1940 Land management Chaunsky, 1940 Land management Chaunsky, 1940 2500 U O 1940 - * 2500 U O 1940 - * Semidomestic Semidomestic 2500 U O 1940 - * 2500 U O 1940 - * Semidomestic 2500 U O 1940 - * Land management Chaunsky, 1940 Semidomestic Semidomestic 2500 U O 1940 - * 2500 U O 1940 - * Land management Chaunsky, 1940 Land management Chaunsky, 1940 Semidomestic Semidomestic 2500 U O 1940 - * 2500 U O 1940 - * Semidomestic SemiShuchya River domestic SemiKhadyta River domestic Ngoyakha SemiRiver domestic Paetayakha SemiRiver domestic Pezhenka SemiRiver domestic Headwaters Uvnukveem SemiRiver domestic 1500 U O 1935 - * 1500 U O 1935 - * 1500 U O 1935 - * 1500 U O 1935 - * 1500 U O 1935 - * 2500 U O 1940 - * 2500 U O 1940 - * Land management Chaunsky, 1940 Land management Chaunsky, 1940 Land management Chaunsky, 1940 Land management Chaunsky, 1940 Land management Kharp, 1938; Tarasenkov, 1935 Land management Priuralsky, 1935 Land management Purovsky, 1935 Land management Kharp, 1938; Tarasenkov, 1935 Land management Kharp, 1938; Tarasenkov, 1935 Land management Chaunsky, 1940 Land management Chaunsky, 1940 * Calving grounds of reindeer herding operations were often based on indigenous knowledge about the historic location of wild reindeer populations’ calving grounds. Our experience of Kuemmerle et al. 4 working with reindeer herders across Russia (L. Baskin and co-workers) suggests the same reindeer calving grounds were used during the entire Soviet time. Figure S1: Location of calving grounds used as training data in the Maxent and Boosted Regression Tree Models (for details on these population see Table S1 and Fig 1 in the main manuscript). For scale reasons only the center location of each calving ground is shown. Up to 25 random locations within each calving ground were chosen as training data (339 points from wild reindeer populations and 67 points from semi-domestic populations). Kuemmerle et al. 5 APPENDIX S2: DESCRIPTION OF PREDICTOR VARIABLES To predict wild reindeer calving grounds across our study region using maximum entropy modeling and boosted regression trees, we gathered five groups of predictors variables: (1) predictors related to resource availability in spring, (2) predictors related to resource availability in summer, (3) predictors related to predator avoidance, (4) predictors related to landscape composition, and (5) predictors related to anthropogenic disturbance. Resource availability in spring Resource availability in spring during calving is important because female reindeer and their newborns can only travel over moderate distances after parturition. Two factors govern resource availability in spring. First, calving tends to occur before the green-up of herbaceous vegetation and female reindeer mainly feed on lichen during that time (Post et al., 2003; Baskin & Miller, 2007; Baskin, 2009; Gunn et al., 2012). Snow cover is an important factor, because high snow cover prevents access to lichens and developing vegetation. Furthermore, high snow cover can also impair reindeer movement and thus migration (Baskin, 2009). A second factor is vegetation productivity, because female reindeer concentrate in small areas and calving occurs synchronously, food availability after parturition thus needs to be high to sustain large numbers of reindeer (White et al., 1987; Post et al., 2003; Baskin, 2009). To capture resource availability in spring, we acquired data on fractional herbaceous and bare ground cover (in percent) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Vegetation Continuous Fields product (MOD44B, 500-m resolution, version 4, year 2001, http://glcf.umiacs.umd.edu/data/vcf). To capture snow cover, we acquired the MODIS daily snow cover product (MOD10A1, 500m, version 4, 2003 to 2008, http://nsidc.org/data/mod10a1.html). The snow cover product daily information on whether or not snow cover was detected for a given 500x500m² pixel. We first calculated the number of snow covered days per week, and then averaged weekly snow cover across the years 2003-2008 for every week from early May to mid-June (Julian days 129 to 168). As additional variables for the timing of snow melting, we also calculated average May and June temperatures based on the WorldClim database, which provides average values for the time period 1960-1990 (Hijmans et al., 2005). Finally, female reindeer sometimes select south-facing slopes for calving, because of earlier snowmelt on those locations and we thus calculated mean slope and southerness index (0 = north, 1=south) per 10x10km² grid cell based on the topographic maps. Resource availability in summer Calving grounds occur typically within or close to regions characterized by early vegetation green-up and high vegetation productivity during summer, allowing reindeer to utilize the entire short growing period to gain body mass (White et al., 1987). Moreover, female reindeer select calving grounds that green-up shortly after parturition, allowing calves and their mothers to follow the green-up frontier northwards to utilize the nutritious first flush of vegetation (e.g., Kuemmerle et al. 6 flowers, cotton grass seedlings, buds of willow and birch dwarf shrubs). To capture vegetation productivity and green-up, we acquired the MODIS 16-day vegetation index product (MOD13A1, 500m, version 5, https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/lpdaac/products/modis_products_table/ vegetation_indices/16_day_l3_global_500m/mod13a1) and calculated the median and standard deviation of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from mid-May to early September (Julian days 145 to 256) annually from 2001 to 2008. The NDVI is calculated as the difference between the near infrared band and the red band reflectance, divided by the sum of these two bands, yielding values between -1 and 1. As additional measures of productivity, we derived the mean temperature of the warmest quarter and maximum temperature of the warmest month from the WorldClim database. Predator avoidance Predator avoidance also plays a potentially important role in calving ground selection. Female reindeer migrate out of the taiga-tundra ecotone into open habitat prior to calving, either northwards or onto higher ground, because predators are more numerous in the forest zone (Heard, 1992). The denning period of wolves, the main reindeer predator, coincides with reindeer calving. Because wolves must feed their young for at least five months, wolves tend to den in the forest, where a variety of prey is available in summer, and calf mortality in forests is thus substantially higher than in the tundra (Baskin 1983; Skogland, 1989). Some reindeer calving grounds are located on hills, which likely also represent predator-avoidance behavior, allowing reindeer to spot approaching wolves earlier. To proxy factors related to predator avoidance, we derived three variables related to landscape openness. First, we measured the Euclidian distance (in km) of every gridcell to the taiga-tundra boundary based on the treeline from the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map (CAVM, http://data.arcticatlas.org). Second, we calculated percent tree cover for each grid cell from the MODIS Vegetation Continuous Field product (MOD44B, 500-m resolution, version 4, year 2001, http://glcf.umiacs.umd.edu/data/vcf).). Third, we derived average elevation per grid cell from the topographic maps. Landscape composition Landscape composition affects calving ground selection in various ways. First, female reindeer favor diverse landscapes that may offer shelter in the event of snow storms (e.g., shrub formations, ravines, or hilly areas) (Baskin 1983; Baskin, 2009). While reindeer favor hilly landscapes, they also avoid steep slopes when selecting calving ground, because newborns can easily get injured in such terrain (Baskin 1983). Calving grounds occur also frequently reported close to rivers or lakes (Baskin & Miller, 2007). Some of these factors are already captured in the above variables (e.g., topography). In addition, we derived the dominating land cover and land cover diversity (Shannon diversity H’ = -∑pilnpi, where p is the proportion of land cover class i) per gridcell from the GlobCover 2005 map (300m grain, version 2.2, http://ionia1.esrin.esa.int). We also derived the distance of each Globcover pixel to the nearest water pixel and calculated Kuemmerle et al. 7 the average distance for each of our 10x10 km² gridcells. Finally, we calculated the dominating vegetation type per 10x10 km² gridcell from an available map of Russian vegetation zones (Scale: 1:8,000,000, Ogureeva, 1999). Anthropogenic disturbance To capture human disturbance, we calculated average population density per 10x10 km from the LandScan global population map (2007 version, www.ornl.gov/sci/landscan). We also calculated road density for each 10x10 km² gridcell based on digital Russian topographic maps (1:500,000). This road dataset included all primary, secondary, and tertiary roads, including all paved roads. In total, we generated 36 candidate predictor variables, 11 variables capturing resource availability in spring, 17 variables related to resource availability in summer, three predator avoidance variables, three landscape composition variables, and two human disturbance variables. While we assigned every predictor variable to one of the variable groups above, it should be noted that some of our variables may be proxies for multiple phenomena (e.g., landscape composition variables describing landscape openness – an important proxy for predator avoidance). Generally, collinearity among our variables was low (Table S2). Both Maxent and Boosted Regression Trees are relatively robust against collinearity (Elith et al., 2011; Dormann et al., 2013), but collinear variables should generally be interpreted with caution. To analyze the characteristics of our reindeer calving ground sample, we extracted variable values for all calving ground occurrence points and summarized them using boxplots for continuous variables and histograms for categorical variables. We aggregated all predictor variables to a grain size of 10x10 km. To do so, we chose the majority value for categorical variables and used a cubic convolution resampling technique for continuous variables. Cubic convolution considers the 16 nearest cell centers to the output cell center and fits a smoothed surface through the points to interpolate the value. All spatial layers were transformed to an Albers equal-area conic projection (WGS84 datum). Kuemmerle et al. 8 Figure S2: Collinearity among predictor variables in our final model (only continuous variables). Color coding: yellow >= 0.70, orange >= 0.80, red >= 0.90. Acronyms: RSP = resource availability in spring, RSU = resource availability in summer, PA = predator avoidance, LC = landscape composition, AD = anthropogenic disturbance. Fractional bare ground cover Fractional herbaceous cover Average snow cover Julian day (Jd) 122-129 Average snow cover Jd 130-137 Average snow cover Jd 138-145 Mean temperature of May Maximum temperature of the warmest month Southerness index Slope Mean vegetation index Jd 177-193 Mean vegetation index Jd 225– 241 Standard deviation vegetation index Jd 177-193 Standard deviation vegetation index Jd 225– 241 Distance to treeline Fractional woody vegetation cover Elevation Diversity of land cover types Distance to water bodies Population density Road density Kuemmerle et al. RSP1 RSP2 RSP3 RSP4 RSP5 RSP6 RSP7 RSP8 RSP9 RSU1 RSU2 RSU3 RSU4 PA1 PA2 PA3 LC1 LC2 AD1 AD2 RSP1 RSP2 RSP3 RSP4 RSP5 -0.16 0.38 0.44 0.52 0.21 0.16 0.07 0.86 0.67 0.82 RSP6 -0.08 0.21 -0.06 -0.09 -0.10 RSP7 -0.06 0.21 -0.02 -0.05 -0.07 1.00 RSP8 -0.08 -0.01 -0.13 -0.10 -0.05 -0.09 -0.11 RSP9 0.25 -0.06 0.24 0.23 0.22 -0.03 -0.02 -0.29 RSU1 -0.74 0.14 -0.27 -0.31 -0.36 0.38 0.37 -0.04 -0.12 RSU2 -0.73 -0.01 -0.35 -0.36 -0.37 0.33 0.31 0.05 -0.11 0.92 RSU3 0.17 0.05 -0.13 -0.07 0.00 -0.15 -0.16 -0.01 0.10 -0.30 -0.31 RSU4 0.19 0.01 0.25 0.24 0.22 -0.16 -0.15 -0.04 0.05 -0.20 -0.28 0.25 9 PA1 0.53 -0.26 0.19 0.30 0.34 -0.30 -0.30 0.06 -0.02 -0.53 -0.44 -0.01 0.05 PA2 -0.57 -0.56 -0.44 -0.46 -0.45 0.14 0.13 0.01 -0.09 0.67 0.75 -0.28 -0.24 -0.27 PA3 0.19 -0.05 0.11 0.09 0.06 0.07 0.08 -0.31 0.78 -0.06 -0.10 0.11 0.01 -0.11 -0.02 LC1 -0.08 0.21 -0.14 -0.11 -0.06 0.04 0.01 0.15 -0.03 0.05 0.12 0.09 -0.03 -0.21 -0.13 -0.08 LC2 0.22 -0.17 0.07 0.17 0.23 -0.43 -0.44 0.19 -0.04 -0.39 -0.24 0.11 0.07 0.53 -0.20 -0.21 0.00 AD1 -0.04 0.05 -0.10 -0.08 -0.06 0.01 0.00 0.08 -0.06 -0.01 0.02 0.03 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.06 0.12 0.02 AD2 -0.21 0.03 -0.50 -0.45 -0.38 0.13 0.10 0.00 -0.19 0.24 0.22 0.04 -0.14 -0.16 0.17 -0.08 0.23 -0.18 0.10 APPENDIX S3: PREDICTOR VARIABLES INCLUDED IN THE FINAL MODEL Predictor variables included in the final model were (data sources in parentheses, for details on variable generation see Appendix SI): (a) Resource availability in spring: fractional bare ground cover (MODIS VCF product), fractional herbaceous cover (MODIS VCF), average snow cover for Julian day period 122-129 (MODIS snow cover product), average snow cover for Julian day period 130137 (MODIS snow cover product), average snow cover for Julian day period 138-145 (MODIS snow cover product), mean temperature of May (WorldClim), maximum temperature of the warmest month (WorldClim), southerness index (Topographic maps), slope (Topography) (b) Resource availability in summer: Mean vegetation index for Julian day period 177-193(MODIS NDVI product), mean vegetation index for Julian day period 225– 241 (MODIS NDVI product), standard deviation vegetation index for Julian day period 177-193(MODIS NDVI product), standard deviation vegetation index for Julian day period 225– 241 (MODIS NDVI product) (c) Predator avoidance: distance to the taiga-tundra boundary (Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map), fractional woody vegetation cover (MODIS VCF), elevation (Topographic maps) (d) Landscape composition: majority land cover type (GlobCover), diversity of land cover types (GlobCover), distance to water bodies (GlobCover), dominant vegetation type (Map of Russian Vegetation Zones) (e) Anthropogenic disturbance: human population density (LANDSCAN 2007), road density (Topographic maps) Kuemmerle et al. 10 APPENDIX S4: COMPARISON OF MODELS WITH AND WITHOUT DOMESTIC REINDEER OCCURRENCE POINTS Our final species distribution models used reindeer calving ground occurrence points from both, wild tundra reindeer populations (83% of all points), and semi-domestic reindeer populations (17%). We included calving ground locations from semi-domestic herds because the location of wild reindeer calving grounds is unknown for regions in Russia where wild reindeer populations were historically been severely decimated or extirpated. Semi-domestic and wild reindeer herds are ecologically and behaviorally similar. The location of the calving grounds of semi-domestic reindeer herds is an important part of traditional knowledge of herding communities and often coincides with the calving grounds of historic wild reindeer populations. Thus, including reindeer calving ground locations from semi-domestic populations likely lessens the bias that would exist in a calving ground occurrence dataset based on contemporary wild populations only. The average cross-validated AUC value of the model including semi-domestic herds (AUC = 0.932 with a standard error of 0.03) was slightly lower than that for the model based on wild reindeer calving grounds only (AUC = 0.954 with a standard error of 0.03). We here provide a comparison of the resulting reindeer calving ground suitability maps for calving ground occurrence datasets with and without locations from semi-domestic herds. Suitability maps were overall highly similar (Fig. S3), with more areas characterized as suitable calving ground habitat predicted by the model that included semi-domestic herds. This was especially the case for Chukotka and Yamal, where wild reindeer calving ground data was scarce. Figure S3: Calving ground suitability map based on calving ground occurrence points from wild and semi-domestic reindeer populations (a) and based on occurrence points from wild reindeer populations only. Both maps represent average maps from the from the Maxent and BRT model predictions. Wild reindeer population ranges shown are 1: Shchuchya River, 2: Shuryshkarskiy Lake, 3: Konda and Sos’va Rivers, 4: Nadym - Pur Rivers, 5: Yugan River, 6: Belyi Island, 7: Yavay Peninsula, 8: Mamonta Peninsula, 9: Gydan Peninsula, 10: Pur - Taz Rivers, 11: Sibiryakova Island, 12: Chichagov Shore, 13: Western Taymyr, 14: Agapa River, 15: Turukhan River, 16: Taz River headwaters, 17: Pura River, 18: Putorany Mountains, 19: Middle Siberian, 20: Dadypta River, 21: Nizhnya Taymyra River, 22: Faddey River, 23: Taymyr Lake, 24: Mariya Pronchishcheva Bog, 25: Popigay River, 26: Lena and Olenek Rivers, 27: Bulun River, 28: Kystyk Uplands, 29: Lena River Delta, 30: Yana and Indigirka Rivers, 31: Novosibirksy River, 32: Indigirka River, 33: Sudrunskaya, 34: Galgavam River, 35: Kolyma River, 36: Omolon River, 37: Elgygytgyn Lake, 38: Amguema River, 39: Mine River, 40: Parapolsky Lowlands, 41: Karaginsky Island, 42: Elovka-Uka River, 43: Kronotsko-Zhupanovskaya, 44: Southern Kamtchatka, 45: Enisey River, 46: Angara River, 47: Western Yakutian, 48: Lena and Viluy River, 49: Yudoma River, 50: Kava River (Source: Baskin & Miller, 2007). 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