Northern Territory rural industry and fisheries Economic Outlook 2014 APRIL 2014 Overview The rural and fisheries industry in the Northern Territory include cattle (interstate and live export), other livestock (buffalo, crocodiles and horses), horticulture (fruit, vegetables, nursery and cut flowers) and mixed farming (field crops, hay and seeds, and forestry). The fisheries industry comprises harvesting of wild catch (including the Northern Prawn Fleet) and aquaculture. A substantial recreational fishing sector generates tourism activity and provides lifestyle amenity. The percentage contribution of each industry to the rural and fisheries total is illustrated in Figure 1, with the cattle, fisheries and horticulture industries being the major players. Figure 1: Contribution of Industry to Sector Production Value, 2013-14 Other Livestock 3.4% Mixed farming 2.5% Fisheries 10.3% Horticulture 20.7% Cattle 63.1% Source: Department of Primary Industry and Fisheries data collections Rural and fisheries industry have significant links to other sectors of the Territory economy such as manufacturing, transport and storage, retail and wholesale trade. These industries are vital in regional areas, providing economic stimulus and employment for approximately 1,100 persons in 2013-14 (ABS). This labour force estimate is subject to very high sampling variability. They also account for a significant proportion of the Territory's non-mineral export revenue. Territory rural industries and fisheries accounted for 2.1% of Gross State Product (GSP) in 2013-14, below the national proportion of 2.3% (Table 1). Exports of Territory rural and fisheries produce are dominated by live cattle exports (mainly to Indonesia), aquaculture, fishing, forestry and to a lesser extent agriculture services. In 2013-14, the total estimated value of rural industry and fisheries production was $521.2 million, a decrease of 18.8% over the previous year, a result reflective of the challenging conditions for NT horticultural industries and fisheries (see Figure 2). The decrease is primarily due to a 50.3% decrease in the production value of horticulture to $107.7 million (driven by the banana freckle response, lower prices, and impact of a poor wet season and average dry season), a 22.4% decrease in fisheries production to $53.5 million (driven by the wild stock catch and aquaculture output), a 13.9% fall in other livestock production (mainly crocodile production) to $17.9 million. These were offset by a 2.0% increase in the value of cattle production to $328.8 million and by a 2.3% increase in the value of field crops to $13.3 million. Page 1 of 5 Economic Outlook 2014 Table 1: Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Contribution to GSP by State 2013-14 Tasmania South Australia Victoria Western Australia Queensland Northern Territory New South Wales Australian Capital Territory Australia (% of GDP) % Contribution to GSP 7.3% 5.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 1.2% 0.1% 2.3% Source: ABS 5220.0 Figure 2: Northern Territory Rural Industry and Fisheries Production Value $ million 900 800 700 600 Mixed farming Other Livestock Fisheries Horticulture Cattle 500 400 300 200 100 0 Source: Department of Primary Industry and Fisheries data collections Page 2 of 5 Economic Outlook 2014 Table 2: Gross Value of Territory Rural Industry and Fisheries Production ($ million) Value of horticultural production ($ million) 2010-11 2011-12 Mangoes 45.4 80.0 Table Grapes 1.6 6.5 Bananas 4.3 11.4 Melons 46.4 59.7 Other fruits 1.2 3.5 Vegetables 22.6 20.7 Turf 0.0 0.0 Nursery & Cut Flowers 17.2 16.7 Total 138.7 198.4 2012-13 69.4 1.7 5.4 63.7 0.6 59.9 0.0 16.2 216.8 2013-14 35.0 0.0 0.0 34.0 3.6 16.1 1.5 17.4 107.7 2014-15f 36.1 0.0 0.0 35.1 0.6 16.6 2.5 17.9 108.7 2015-16f 37.2 0.0 0.0 36.1 0.6 17.1 3.5 18.5 112.9 Value of fisheries production ($ million) 2010-11 2011-12 Fish 24.6 25.7 Crustaceans 7.8 8.2 Aquaculture 26.6 17.2 Molluscs & Echinoderms 0.2 0.2 Total NT Fisheries 59.2 51.3 Crustaceans-NPF 17.4 15.2 Total Fisheries 76.7 66.5 2012-13 27.7 6.4 25.3 0.01 59.4 9.5 68.9 2013-14 23.4 4.2 15.2 0.2 43.0 10.5 53.5 2014-15f 24.1 4.3 15.6 0.0 44.1 10.9 55.0 2015-16f 24.8 4.5 16.1 0.0 45.4 11.4 56.8 Value of cattle, other livestock and mixed farming ($ million) 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 Cattle 326.3 329.8 322.2 328.8 Other Livestock 10.7 22.5 20.8 17.9 Field crops 19.0 14.6 13.0 13.3 Forestry 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 356.0 366.9 356.0 360.0 2014-15f 318.0 18.5 13.7 0.0 350.1 2015-16f 330.7 19.1 14.1 0.0 363.8 Total Northern Territory Rural Industry and Fisheries Production Value ($ million) 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15f Horticulture 138.7 198.4 216.8 107.7 108.7 Fisheries 76.7 66.5 68.9 53.5 55.0 Cattle 326.3 329.8 322.2 328.8 318.0 Other Livestock 10.7 22.5 20.8 17.9 18.5 Field crops 19.0 14.6 13.0 13.3 13.7 Forestry 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Grand Total 571.4 631.9 641.7 521.2 513.9 2015-16f 112.9 56.8 330.7 19.1 14.1 0.0 533.5 Source: Department of Primary Industry and Fisheries data collections, f = forecast Please note all figures here have been rounded respectively and may not tally to totals. NPF = Northern Prawn Fleet (Commonwealth-managed fishery) Forecasting Notes (1) Recent production has been lower than average due to poor wet and dry seasons and the banana freckle response. Forecasts for mangoes and other fruits are based on below average annual prices and yields. (2) No forecasts for bananas due to on-going banana freckle eradication program. (3) No table grape forecast as the industry recovers due to adverse seasonal conditions impacting on existing farms in 2012-13. (4) Vegetable production increase in 2012-13 was stimulated by excess demand. Forecasts are based on returns to average yields and prices based on 2013-14 production. Please use this data from 1 May 2015 to 31 May 2016 only. Page 3 of 5 Economic Outlook 2014 Table 3: Gross Value of Territory Rural Industry and Fisheries Production (Percentage changes) Mangoes Table Grapes Bananas Melons Other fruits Vegetables Turf Nursery & Cut Flowers Total 10-11 to 11-12 % 76.2% 297.9% 163.1% 28.5% 193.9% -8.2% 0.0% -2.9% 43.0% 11-12 to 12-13 % -13.2% -74.1% -52.4% 6.8% -84.0% 188.9% 0.0% -3.1% 9.3% 12-13 to 13-14 % -49.5% -100.0% -100.0% -46.6% 550.5% -73.1% 0.0% 7.7% -50.3% Fish Crustaceans Aquaculture Molluscs & Echinoderms Total NT Fisheries Crustaceans - NPF Total Fisheries 10-11 to 11-12 % 4.6% 4.4% -35.3% -4.6% -13.3% -12.9% -13.2% 11-12 to 12-13 % 7.8% -22.5% 46.9% 0.0% 15.7% -37.3% 3.6% 12-13 to 13-14 % -15.5% -33.6% -39.9% 0.0% -27.6% 10.3% -22.4% Cattle Other Livestock Field crops Forestry 10-11 to 11-12 % 1.1% 109.9% -22.9% 0.0% 11-12 to 12-13 % -2.3% -7.5% -11.3% 0.0% 12-13 to 13-14 % 2.0% -13.9% 2.3% 0.0% Horticulture Fisheries Cattle Other Livestock Field crops Forestry Total 10-11 to 11-12 % 43.0% -13.2% 1.1% 109.9% -22.9% 0.0% 10.6% 11-12 to 12-13 % 9.3% 3.6% -2.3% -7.5% -11.3% 0.0% 1.6% 12-13 to 13-14 % -50.3% -22.4% 2.0% -13.9% 2.3% 0.0% -18.8% Source: Department of Primary Industry and Fisheries data collections NPF = Northern Prawn Fleet (Commonwealth-managed fishery) Please use this data from 1 May 2015 to 1 May 2016 only. Page 4 of 5 Economic Outlook 2014 Acknowledgements The important contributions made by staff of the Department of Primary Industry and Fisheries are gratefully acknowledged. The author would like to thank the following staff: Biosecurity and Product Integrity: Adele Kluth, Dick Morton Pastoral Production: Arthur Cameron, Casey Collier, Ben Beumer Plant Industries: Stuart Smith, Megan Connelly Fisheries Group: Glenn Schipp, Murray Barton, Hock Seng Lee Prepared by: Michael Jean Contact Details Michael Jean Senior Economist Department of Primary Industry and Fisheries Department of Mines and Energy GPO Box 3000, DARWIN NT 0801 Australia Telephone: +61 8 8999 2242 Email: michael.jean@nt.gov.au Disclaimer While all care has been taken to ensure that information contained in this document is true and correct at the time of publication, changes in circumstances after the time of publication may impact on the accuracy of its information. The Northern Territory of Australia gives no warranty or assurance, and makes no representation as to the accuracy of any information or advice contained in this publication, or that it is suitable for your intended use. You should not rely upon information in this publication for the purpose of making any serious, business or investment decisions without obtaining independent and/or professional advice in relation to your particular situation. The Northern Territory of Australia disclaims any liability or responsibility or duty of care towards any person for loss or damage caused by any use of or reliance on the information contained in this publication. Page 5 of 5