EEA/NSV/10/002 – ETC/ICM
Security implications of future water use in
Western Balkans: challenge of hydropower
development
Risks and proposed management measures regarding
explorative scenarios (Chapter 9) – final draft
Date: 8 January, 2014
EEA activity:
EEA West Balkan Cooperation
ETC/ICM Water
Prepared by / compiled by:
Dr. Lidija Globevnik
Gašper Šubelj
Luka Snoj
Organisation:
TC Vode
EEA Project manager:
Anita Pirc Velkavrh
Risks and proposed management measures regarding explorative scenarios
Table 1: Explorative scenario 1 (The good society) - vulnerability, risks and proposed mitigation measures.
Affected
sector
Agriculture
Threat/Impacts
Energy
Low reduction
in precipitation
& Low rise in
temperature
Proposed mitigation and adaptation measures to
avoid/reduce threats and vulnerability and
achieve vision
Vulnerability
Risks
Low susceptibility of crop production due to low
water shortage in soil, there is still enough water
for irrigation. High coping capacities due to
sustainable agricultural methods (crop pattern are
adapted to climate and soil conditions).
Summer water shortage can affect agriculture
extension of growing season; changes in crop
productivity, the projected lengthening of the
thermal growing season would allow a northward
expansion of warm season crops to areas that
were not previously suitable. Higher risks of flood
and risk events will effect agriculture production.
Crop production will decrease.
Agriculture policy has to stay sustainable and
continuously adapt to climate change and
changing environment. Investments into early
warning systems should remain high in order to
assure future sustainable development.
Low susceptibility and high coping capacities of
hydropower plants due to no/low changes in
amount of disposable surface water resources and
sustainable maintenance of existing HPP and
efficient construction of new HPP.
High energy consumption due to growing economy
is causing demand for construction of new HPP,
which is reducing availability of water. Conflicts
between different economic sectors may occur.
Majority of the rivers is exploited. Too high
dependency on hydropower energy can present a
risk of electric energy blackouts when there is not
enough water in reservoirs for the power stations
to function. Increase investment in nonhydropower renewable energy.
Sustainable energy development strategies should
include a wider spectrum of non-hydropower
renewable energy sources such as sun, geothermal
water, wind etc. Hydropower dependency should
be reduced. New hydropower capacities should be
carefully examined and assessed if they really will
provide long-term benefits.
1
Tourism
Urban
Low susceptibility and high coping capacities of
tourism due to no/low changes in amount of
disposable surface water resources and
sustainable maintenance of existing touristic
facilities and efficient construction of new
touristic infrastructure.
Suitability for tourism can decline slightly
during the key summer months. Regions close to
the low elevation limit for winter sport are most
sensitive to the projected warming. Climate
changes can cause substantial consequences for
coastal regions/countries where tourism is an
important economic sector and contributor to
national GDP (e.g. Croatia).
Further development of tourism should remain
sustainable and adapted to climate and
environmental changes. Regions which are too
depended on tourism should reconsider and
preventively start to develop other sectors. With
collaboration of all WB countries, region should
be marketed as single tourist destination with
unique culture.
Low susceptibility and high coping capacities of
urban areas due to no/low changes in amount of
disposable surface water resources and
sustainable renovation of existing urban
facilities, introduction of green public transport
and efficient construction of new urban
residential settlements.
Intense economic development can cause
uncontrolled urban sprawl and depopulation of
rural areas. Growing urban areas can face a
growing drinking water demand which can
result in drinking water deficit especially in
summer. Rising temperatures can increase the
risk of algal growth in water supply systems
which can consequent in contamination of
drinking water.
Urban sprawl should be controlled and
strategically planned with consideration of
upcoming climate changes and their effects on
urbanized regions. Living in rural areas and
rural life style should be highly promoted to
keep rural areas populated. Water levels should
be carefully monitored for developing effective
risk mapping for drinking water deficit and
urban floods.
2
Table 2: Explorative scenario 2 (Technogarden in the Balkans) - vulnerability, risks and proposed mitigation measures.
Affected
sector
Risks
High susceptibility of crop production due to
water shortage in soil and shortage of water
for irrigation. High coping capacities due to
sustainable agricultural methods (crop
patterns are adapted to climate and soil
conditions).
Water shortage in all seasons but especially in summer can
affect agriculture extension of growing season. Changes in
crop productivity, the projected lengthening of the thermal
growing season would allow a northward expansion of warm
season crops to areas that were not previously suitable.
Higher risks of flood and risk events will effect agriculture
production. Crop production will decrease. It is a chance of
uncontrolled introduction of genetically modified organisms
(resilient to higher temperatures). Invasive and higher
temperatures resilient species are threatening agriculture
production. Extreme events as are droughts and floods are
causing higher rates of tree mortality. Climate change can
have impact also on forests vegetation period, growth, health
and distribution of trees and thus on the services and goods
provided by forests. Increasing evapotranspiration is putting
pressure on the use of irrigation in drought-prone areas. Food
prices are rising.
Agriculture policy has to stay sustainable and continuously adapt
to climate change and changing environment. Irrigation
efficiency should be improved with introduction of low water
demand drip irrigation techniques from local water resources.
Water usage should be decreased with switching to crops which
are less water-intensive to produce. Monitoring and warning
systems should be established for surveying fires, diseases,
insects and other possible disturbances in agriculture and
forestry sectors. There should be strong cooperation between
hydrometeorological and agricultural sectors. Researches and
investments into new ways of obtaining useful information as is
assessing of soil fertility and water levels using remote sensing
should be encouraged.
High susceptibility of water resources and
high coping capacities of hydropower plants
due to high changes in amount of disposable
surface water resources but sustainable
maintenance of existing HPP and efficient
construction of new HPP.
High energy consumption due to growing economy is causing
demand for construction of new HPP, which is reducing
availability of water. Droughts can impact the hydropower
production very hard, causing blackouts when there is not
enough water in reservoirs for the power stations to properly
function. Lower water flows can cause lower hydropower
outputs which combination with the increasing demands is
causing energy deficit and need for electricity import.
New hydropower capacities should be carefully examined and
assessed if they really will provide long-term benefits
considering on-going climate changes and reduced water flows
while existing hydropower plants should be modified to be more
energy efficient regarding less abundant river flows. There
should be more control with implementing and testing new
technologies regarding their environmental impacts and
potential negative consequences. Investments in climate change
investigation and future water availability should remain high
with strong collaboration of energy, agricultural and water
consuming sectors.
High increase
in temperature
& High
decrease in
precipitation
Energy
Proposed mitigation and adaptation measures to avoid/reduce
threats and vulnerability and achieve vision
Vulnerability
Agriculture
Threat/Impacts
3
Suitability for tourism can decline moderately during the key
summer months. Climate changes can cause substantial
consequences on regions/countries where tourism is an
important economic sector contributor to national GDP (e.g.
Croatia). Rising temperatures in the whole region are likely to
cause decrease in summer tourism, as tourists head further
north. However, tourism later and earlier in the season may
increase which can extend tourist season and contribute
positively
to
GDP.
Tourist
infrastructure
along
the Adriatic coast may be vulnerable to coastal erosion and
sea-level rise. Warmer winter temperatures and decreased
precipitation can present a significant threat to ski resorts
(winter tourist seasons are becoming shorter).
Further development of tourism should remain sustainable and
constantly adapt to climate and environmental changes. Regions
which are too depended on tourism should reconsider and
preventively start to develop other sectors. Higher temperatures
mean that greater efforts should be made to design buildings
with efficient cooling systems. Rather than focusing on largescale coastal developments, investors and planners should focus
to develop lower-impact ecotourism facilities and infrastructure
in national parks and mountainous regions. Ski resorts should be
assessed with a focus on snow availability and their economic
efficiency considering projected climate change impacts. To
compensate for income lost in hotter summers and milder
winters, tourist season can be expanded by introduction of
other tourist friendly activities such as mountaineering, spa,
rafting, horse-riding, etc. Major environmental, cultural and
other touristic sites should be the subject of a thorough climate
and natural hazard risk assessment. Touristic sites at higher risk
should be properly protected.
High susceptibility and high coping capacities
of urban areas due to high changes in amount
of disposable surface water resources and
sustainable renovation of existing urban
facilities, introduction of green public
transport and efficient construction of new
urban residential settlements.
Intense economic development can cause uncontrolled urban
sprawl and depopulation of rural areas. Heat waves can be
especially strong and dangerous in highly urbanized areas.
Beside heat waves, storms, urban floods and droughts can also
threaten urban areas. Growing urban areas can face a higher
drinking water demand which can result in summer drinking
water deficit. Rising temperatures can increase the risk of algal
growth in water supply systems which can consequent in
contamination of drinking water. Sea level rise can cause sea
flooding and present a significant risk to coastal cities. Higher
mean temperature can increase demand for cooling but lower
demand for heating. Climate change will have higher impacts
on elder, very young and poor population.
Urban sprawl should be controlled and strategically planned
with consideration of upcoming climate changes and their
effects on urbanized regions. Living in rural areas and rural life
style should be highly promoted to keep rural areas populated.
Water levels should be carefully monitored for developing
effective risk mapping for drinking water deficit and urban
floods. Coastal cities should implement proper measures
regarding coast protection to avoid sea flooding such as
seawalls, land acquisition and creation of marshlands as buffer
against rising sea level, population which can't be protected
should be relocated.
Tourism
High susceptibility and high coping capacities
of tourism due to high changes in amount of
disposable surface water resources and
sustainable maintenance of existing touristic
facilities and efficient construction of new
touristic infrastructure.
Urban
High increase
in
temperature
& High
decrease in
precipitation
4
Table 3: Explorative scenario 3 (Run to the hills) - vulnerability, risks and proposed mitigation measures.
Affected
sector
Agriculture
Threat/Impacts
Energy
Moderate
temperature
increase &
Moderate
precipitation
decrease
Proposed mitigation and adaptation measures to avoid/reduce
threats and vulnerability and achieve vision
Vulnerability
Risks
Low susceptibility of crop production due
to low water shortage in soil and shortage
of water for irrigation. Low coping
capacities
due
to
unsustainable
agricultural methods (crop patterns are
not adopted to climate and soil
conditions).
Summer water shortage can affect agriculture extension of growing
season and decrease in crop productivity. The projected lengthening of
the thermal growing season would allow a northward expansion of
warm season crops to areas that were not previously suitable). Higher
risks of flood and risk events will effect agriculture production
especially because early warning systems are not established.
Inefficient irrigation systems can negatively impact on water
availability and crop production respectively. Water scarcity can affect
irrigated agricultural areas.
Agriculture policy should immediately implement principles of sustainable
development and immediately adapt to climate change and changing
environment. Climate change adaption measures should be incorporated into
national/regional agricultural strategic development documents. Legislation
regarding food safety and animal health should be stronger. Farmers should
be encouraged to improve sustainability and adapt to climate change. New
technologies should become more available to farmers with organic and
sustainable farming techniques promotion. Sustainable rural development
should be encouraged with investments to improve rural infrastructure.
Establishment of monitoring and warning systems for surveying fires, diseases,
insects and other possible disturbances in agriculture and forestry.
Low susceptibility of water resources and
low coping capacities of hydropower
plants due to low changes in amount of
disposable surface water resources but
unsustainable maintenance of existing HPP
and inefficient construction of new HPP.
Conflicts between different economic sectors may occur.
Unsustainable and insufficiently planned investments in new
hydropower projects may prove poor value for money if they end up
running at a small fraction of their total capacity which can result also
in energy blackouts. Unsustainable and not strategically planned
construction of new hydropower plants has significant detrimental
effects on the environment (e.g. reduced biodiversity) of river
catchments and can slow down other economic activities in the region.
Early warning systems are not operational.
National energy sectors should as soon as possible implement principles of
sustainable development and begin to cooperate with neighbouring countries.
Transboundary collaboration regarding exploitation of water sources for
hydropower energy would ensure energy efficiency, sustainability and equal
development of WB region. The highly centralized nature and aging
infrastructure of the power distribution network in the Western Balkans
leaves it vulnerable to climate change. Decentralization of the energy sector
would lower its vulnerability to climate change and extreme events. In a first
phase existing hydropower plants should be properly maintained with
improved efficiency. In a second phase construction of new hydropower plants
considering climate change and water availability should be done in
sustainable way. Investments in non-hydropower renewable energy sources
would ensure diversification of energy sources and reduce chances of energy
blackouts.
5
Suitability for tourism can decline markedly through the year due to
unattractive conditions for tourism and low adaption of tourism to
climate change. Climate change can have negative impacts especially
on regions/countries where tourism is an important economic sector
and contributor to national GDP (e.g. Croatia). Rising temperatures in
the whole WB region are likely to cause decrease in summer tourism,
as tourists head further north. However, tourism later and earlier in
the season may increase which can extend tourist season and
contribute positively to GDP. Warmer winter temperatures,
unsustainable infrastructure maintenance, low investments in new
touristic facilities and decreased precipitation can present a significant
threat to ski resorts and other touristic facilities respectively. Cultural
heritage and cultural tourism may be endangered as well due to
unsustainable economic development and renovation. Conflicts and
social tensions are diverting tourists and creating unattractive
conditions for further touristic development.
Further development of tourism should immediately integrate means of
sustainable development. Regions which are too depended on tourism should
reconsider and preventively start to develop other sectors. New tourist
development, facilities and infrastructure should be planned with minimal
environmental footprints, with emphasize on ecologically sound waste
management and renewable energy such as installation of solar panels on new
buildings. Rather than focusing on large-scale coastal developments, investors
and planners should focus to develop lower-impact ecotourism facilities and
infrastructure in national parks and mountainous regions. Ski resorts should be
properly maintained, construction of new ski resorts is not excluded if
assessment of climate change impacts on their potential location shows that
their construction is economically efficient in the long-term perspective. To
compensate for income lost in hotter summers and milder winters, tourist
season can be expanded by introduction of other tourist friendly activities
such as mountaineering, spa, rafting, horse-riding, etc. Major environmental,
cultural and other touristic sites should be the subject of a thorough climate
and natural hazard risk assessment. Touristic sites at higher risk should be
properly protected. Indirect measures such as establishment of political and
social stability would markedly increase touristic attraction of the WB.
Low susceptibility and low coping
capacities of urban areas due to low/no
changes in amount of disposable surface
water resources and unsustainable urban
development with insufficient public
transport and other infrastructure.
Public water supply and sewer systems are disrupted. Effects on quality
of surface and groundwater are consequently adverse. Energy
blackouts may occur due to reduced energy supply from hydropower
generation due to unsustainable maintenance of hydropower facilities.
Transport, commerce and economic activities are disrupted mainly due
to unsustainable development. Lack of affordable housing facilities can
result with development of informal settlements on marginal land near
cities. Unsustainable economic development may raise social tension,
ghettoization, conflicts can create unpleasant and unattractive living
conditions in urbanized regions. Extreme events can present a
moderate threat to linkage infrastructures such as bridges, roads,
pipelines while transmission networks which can cause substantial
economic losses in industry. Air pollution can be exacerbated by high
temperatures. Exacerbation of the urban heat island effect can lead to
increased risk of heat-related mortality and illnesses, especially for
chronically sick, very young, socially isolated and elderly population.
Heat waves can be especially strong and dangerous in highly urbanized
areas without parks and green belts. Beside heat waves, storms, urban
floods and droughts can also present a threat to urban areas.
Urban planning should implement means of sustainable development with
consideration of upcoming climate changes and their effects on urbanized
regions. Living in rural areas and rural life style should be highly promoted to
keep rural areas populated. Water levels should be carefully monitored for
developing effective risk mapping for drinking water deficit and urban floods.
Urban areas affected by heat waves should develop heat-health action plans
and improve climate sensitive disease surveillance, control and sanitation.
Public transport should become more efficient, sustainable and available to
everybody. Critical infrastructure should be maintained and adjusted where
needed to cope with climate change. Safety of schools and health facilities
should be assessed and upgraded if necessary. Protected ecosystems and
natural buffers should be introduced to mitigate floods, storms and other
hazards. Construction of new facilities and residential neighbourhoods should
be carefully and strategically planned, development of informal marginal
settlements without proper infrastructure should be avoided.
Tourism
Low susceptibility and low coping
capacities of tourism due to no/low
changes in amount of disposable surface
water resources and unsustainable
maintenance of existing touristic facilities
and inefficient construction of new
touristic infrastructure.
Urban
Moderate
temperature
increase &
Moderate
precipitation
decrease
6
Table 4: Explorative scenario 4 (Downward spiral) - vulnerability, risks and proposed mitigation measures.
Affected
sector
Agriculture
Threat/Impacts
Energy
High increase
in temperature
& High
decrease in
precipitation
Proposed mitigation and adaptation measures to avoid/reduce threats
and vulnerability and achieve vision
Vulnerability
Risks
High susceptibility of
crop production due to
high water shortage in
soil and shortage of
water for irrigation. Low
coping capacities due to
unsustainable
agricultural
methods
(crop patterns are not
adopted to climate and
soil conditions).
Water shortage in all seasons but especially in summer can affect agriculture extension
of growing season. Warmer temperatures, longer and more frequent droughts and
heat waves are causing heat stress and increasing tree mortality. They have a large
adverse effect on crop yields. Unsustainable farming practices combined with higher
rates of evaporation from topsoil are causing soil degradation as one of the major
threats. Lower yields will require greater food imports which are increasing food
security concern. Rising food prices are likely to hit the hardest the poorest people who
are living in rural areas. The capacity to develop new approaches and mitigate climate
change impacts is low among farmers, many of whom have low education. There will
be shortage of water for irrigation; certain crops which are currently not-irrigated will
be forced to become more dependent on extra water. Invasive and higher
temperatures resilient species are bringing threatening agriculture production. Changes
in crop productivity and decreases in crop yield, such as wheat, maize, potatoes,
vegetables etc. The projected lengthening of the thermal growing season would allow a
northward expansion of warm season crops to areas that were not previously suitable.
Agriculture policy should implement principles of sustainable development and
immediately start adapting to climate change and changing environment. Climate
change adaption measures should be incorporated into national/regional
agricultural strategic development documents. Legislation regarding food safety
and animal health should be stronger. Rural infrastructure should be improved;
irrigational systems should be properly maintained with improved efficiency due
to the fact that quantities of available water are decreasing. Areas where
agricultural adaption to climate change is far below economic feasibility should be
replaced with other economic sectors. Agriculture production should remain
strong on less impacted areas. Farmers should adapt to climate change and start
to grow drought and high temperatures resilient crops. To avoid deruralization of
impacted areas livelihood diversification beyond farming should be supported
and promoted with encouraging sustainable rural tourism.
High susceptibility of
water resources and low
coping capacities of
hydropower plants due
to high changes in
amount of disposable
surface water resources
and
unsustainable
maintenance of existing
HPP
and
inefficient
construction of new HPP.
Main threat to hydropower energy production is presenting reduced water availability
which is even more endangered due to unsustainable and insufficient water
management and poor cooperation regarding exploitation of water resources between
Western Balkans countries. Droughts can impact hydropower production very hard,
causing blackouts when there is not enough water in reservoirs for the power stations
to produce demanded amount of energy. Unsustainable and insufficiently planned
investments in new hydropower projects may prove poor value for money if they end
up running at a small fraction of their total capacity which can result also in energy
blackouts. Thermo power plants as major energy source will be under threat due to the
increasing scarcity of water for cooling purposes. The declining energy produced by
hydropower and thermal power plants output combined with high energy losses will
lead to energy import, potentially resulting in higher electricity prices which impacts
will especially effect the poorest, rural population. Water use and energy supply is
endangered due to poor water infrastructure, insufficient irrigation techniques and
reduced water flows. Water use and energy supply is endangered due to poor water
infrastructure and inefficient irrigation techniques. Early warning systems are not
operational. Good water management practices are poorly known which is causing a
big gap between energy production and research and are causing further society decay.
National energy sectors should as soon as possible implement principles of
sustainable development with strong consideration of on-going climate changes
and reduced water flows and begin to cooperate with wider region.
Transboundary collaboration regarding exploitation of water sources for
hydropower energy would ensure energy efficiency, sustainability and equal
development of WB region. In order to establish investment priorities, a thorough
investigation of vulnerability of existing energy infrastructure and distribution
network to climate change and extreme weather such as droughts and heat
waves, floods etc. needs to be undertaken by national governments. To ensure
energy sustainability existing hydropower and thermal plants should be properly
maintained. The highly centralized nature and aging infrastructure of the power
distribution network in the Western Balkans leaves it vulnerable to climate
change. Environmentally disputed energy capacities (e.g. old thermo plants)
should be replaced with green, environmentally friendly energy sources. There
should be strong focus on energy conservation and efficiency. The importance of
energy efficiency in all sectors should be incorporated in educational curricula as
well. Decentralization of the energy sector would lower its vulnerability to climate
change and extreme events.
7
High increase
in temperature
& High
decrease in
precipitation
Tourism
High susceptibility and
low coping capacities of
tourism due to high
changes in amount of
disposable surface water
resources
and
unsustainable
maintenance of existing
touristic facilities and
inefficient construction
of
new
touristic
infrastructure.
Suitability for tourism can decline markedly through the year due to unattractive
conditions for tourism, low, slow and insufficient adaption of tourism to climate change
impacts. Climate change can have negative impacts especially on regions/countries
where tourism is an important economic sector and contributor to national GDP (e.g.
Croatia). Rising temperatures in the whole WB region can cause decrease in summer
tourism, as tourists head further north where temperatures are milder. Tourist
infrastructure along the Adriatic coast may be vulnerable to coastal erosion and sealevel rise. Warmer winter temperatures, unsustainable infrastructure maintenance, low
investments in new touristic facilities and decreased precipitation can present a
significant threat to ski resorts and other touristic facilities respectively. Cultural
heritage and cultural tourism may be endangered as well due to unsustainable
economic development, renovation and slow and insufficient infrastructure
maintenance. Conflicts and social tensions are diverting tourists and creating
unattractive conditions for further touristic development. Increased natural hazards
can present a risk to many areas of tourist interest such as cultural centres and national
parks. Natural hazards can not only discourage tourists from visiting but can potentially
damage tourism centres and decrease their long-term tourist potential.
8
Tourism should immediately integrate means of sustainable development with
emphasize on climate and environmental changes. Regions which are too
depended on tourism should reconsider and preventively start to develop other
sectors. New tourist facilities and infrastructure should be planned with minimal
environmental footprints, with emphasize on ecologically sound waste
management and renewable energy such as installation of solar panels on new
buildings. Higher temperatures mean that greater efforts should be made to
design buildings with efficient cooling systems. Coastal tourist destination should
be assessed considering potential sea level rise. Rather than focusing on largescale coastal developments, investors and planners should focus to develop
lower-impact ecotourism facilities and infrastructure in national parks and
mountainous regions. Ski resorts should be assessed with a focus on snow
availability and their economic efficiency considering projected climate change
impacts. To compensate for income lost in hotter summers and milder winters,
tourist season can be expanded by introduction of other tourist friendly activities
such as mountaineering, spa, rafting, horse-riding, etc. Major environmental,
cultural and other touristic sites should be the subject of a thorough climate and
natural hazard risk assessment. Touristic sites at higher risk should be properly
protected. Climate change impacts should not be considered just as threat for
some tourist destinations but also as opportunity for destinations which were
traditionally not touristic but their tourist potential increased with warmer - more
pleasant climate (e.g. mountainous settlements). Such destinations should be
recognized and stimulated to develop proper tourist facilities and infrastructure in
sustainable way. Indirect measures such as establishment of political and social
stability would markedly increase touristic attraction of the WB. Governments
should provide better support to private sector and assure that information and
programs, regarding climate change adaption are available particularly to smaller
private entrepreneurs working in tourist sector.
Urban
High susceptibility and
low coping capacities of
urban areas due to high
changes in amount of
disposable surface water
resources
and
unsustainable
urban
development
with
insufficient
public
transport and other
infrastructure.
Extreme events can present a threat to linkage infrastructures such as bridges, roads,
pipelines, or transmission networks which can cause substantial economic losses in
industry. Air pollution is exacerbated by high temperatures. Energy transmission and
distribution may be overstressed because of heat waves in conjunction with higher
energy demand for cooling. Exacerbation of the urban heat island effect can lead to
increased risk of heat-related mortality and illnesses, especially for chronically sick, very
young, socially isolated and elderly population. Heat waves can be especially strong and
dangerous in highly urbanized areas. Beside heat waves, storms, urban floods and
droughts can also present a threat to urban areas. Sea level rise can cause sea flooding
and present a significant risk to coastal cities. Groundwater availability may be at risk
due to saline intrusion intro aquifers. Public water supply and sewer systems are
disrupted. Effects on quality of surface and groundwater are consequently adverse.
Energy blackouts may occur due to reduced energy supply from hydropower
generation. Transport, commerce and economic activities are disrupted due to heavy
precipitation events and unsustainable development. Lack of affordable housing
facilities can result with development of informal settlements on marginal land near
cities. Unsustainable economic development may rise social tension, ghettoization, and
conflicts and create unpleasant and unattractive living conditions in urbanized regions.
9
Urban planning should implement means of sustainable development with
consideration of upcoming climate changes and their effects on urbanized
regions. Living in rural areas and rural life style should be highly promoted to keep
rural areas populated. Water levels should be carefully monitored for developing
effective risk mapping for drinking water deficit and urban floods. Coastal cities
should implement proper measures regarding coast protection to avoid sea
flooding such as seawalls and land acquisition and creation of marshlands as
buffer against rising sea level. Population which can't be protected should be
relocated. Urban areas affected by heat waves should develop heat-health action
plans and improve climate sensitive disease surveillance, control and sanitation.
Public transport should become more efficient, sustainable and available to
everybody. Critical infrastructure should be maintained and adjusted where
needed to cope with climate change. Early warning systems should be installed;
emergency management capacities should be increased. Safety of schools and
health facilities should be assessed and upgraded if necessary. Protected
ecosystems and natural buffers should be introduced to mitigate floods, storms
and other hazards. Construction of new facilities and residential neighbourhoods
should be carefully and strategically planned, uncontrolled development of
informal marginal settlements without proper infrastructure should be avoided.