12/12/2015
The Future is Now
The rising risks of flooding in Utah
Megan Heath
MET – 1010-400
Table of Contents
Introduction
Page 2
Data and Forecast
Evidence of Increase
Page 2
Page 2
Problems Caused by Flooding
Loss of Life
Financial Burdens
Page 4
Page 4
Page 4
Solutions
Education of Policy
Education of Populous
Infrastructure
Page 6
Page 6
Page 7
Page 7
Summary
Page 8
Bibliography
Page 9
List of Figures
UTAH INCIDENCE OF FLOODS 1993 – 2014
Page 1
ANNUAL PRECIPITATION IN SALT LAKE CITY 1913 – 2013
Page 2
AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE OF SALT LAKE CITY 1913 – 2013
Page 2
U.S FLOOD DAMAGE 1934 – 2000
Page 3
ANNUAL COST OF FLOOD DAMAGE IN UTAH 2007 – 2014
Page 4
POSSIBLE COST INCREASES FROM FLOOD DAMAGE
Page 4
FLOODING CONDITIONS
Page 6
DAN JONES PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Page 7
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Introduction
This year the historic Climate Conference in Paris, France took place. The result of this
conglomeration between countries and industries resulted is a single resolve: “climate change is
a common concern of humankind” (Famework Convention of Climate Chagne, 2015). The
conference outlined the necessary measures for what actions need to be taken to effectively
address this concern. The core of the agreement holds each nation to reduce carbon emissions
and prevent the world temperature from increasing more than 2 degrees centigrade higher. It is
worth noting that a 2 degree rise of global warming is in fact part of the agreement. The Paris
talks concluded with the resolve that climate change is happening, and we must mitigate it as
much as possible. Therefore, accepting the reality of climate change, it is happening, and it will
impact the state of our world we must act accordingly to what is in store. There will be many
cataclysmic alterations of our world even with a mere 2 degree increase, and this paper calls for
attention of one necessary solution in our back yard: The mitigation of flood damage caused by
long term changes in Utah’s weather patterns.
Data and Forecast
The most recent models all agree that the rise in temperatures will have a cascade effect;
while precipitation is going to increase it will be in form of rainfall and not snow (Melanie
Spencer, Emily S.B. Stembridge, Lynn U. Phillips), in addition, the rise of temperatures will
cause greater water loss in the form of evaporation. What does this mean? Any snow pacts we
get will quickly melt into runoff or be lost to the atmosphere only to return in flooding torrents of
rain. This is something we are already beginning to see.
Evidence of Increase
Over the past 10 years flooding events in Utah have dramatically increased. In 1993 11 floods
happened in contrast to 2014 when 73 floods occurred.
(Public Health Indicator Based Information System, 2015)
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The increase of flooding follows the same trend as the increase of precipitation and the
increase of temperature:
Annual Precipitation in Salt Lake City
30
25
20
15
10
5
1913
1917
1921
1925
1929
1933
1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
0
Data from the Office of the National Weather Service Forecast
 Notice in 100 years the increase of precipitation:
 1913 – 1947: 4 years greater than 19 inches, 11% total of the years.
 1948 – 1978: 5 years greater than 19 inches, 16% total of the years.
 1979 – Present: 7 years greater than 19 inches, 20% total of the years.
In the 60 years prior to 1973 there wasn’t a single year where more than 22 inches of
precipitation occurred and 1982 was the first year where there was more than 23 inches. Since
1982 there have been 5 years with precipitation greater than 23 inches.
Average Annual Temperature of Salt Lake City
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
1913
1917
1921
1925
1929
1933
1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
2013
44
Data from the Office of the National Weather Service Forecast
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Notice the gradual increase as indicated by the red trend line. It is also worth noting that in
100 years there were 9 years prior to 1976 where the temperature exceeded 53 degrees versus
after 1977 where there are 22 years. That’s 14% of the years versus 61%.
Utah is getting warmer! We’re getting more rain, we’re getting more floods and this trend is
expected to only increase. Thomas Reichler climate researcher at the University of Utah has
created models which predict an increase in temperature of 3 degrees Fahrenheit in the winter
and 4 degrees Fahrenheit in the summer. In addition to these warmer temperatures his models
also predict an increase of precipitation of 10% in the winter and a decrease of 10% in the
summer. As we can see in the above data tables increases in temperature and therefore rainfall
lead to an increase in flooding events. Since we can predict these occurrences will only become
more frequent we must address how they impact us now and what future costs are to be
expected.
Problems Caused by Flooding
Loss of life
Flooding is nationally responsible for the most natural disaster related deaths per year (Staff,
2014). Over a 30 year period flooding was responsible an average of 92 deaths per year versus
tornados at 56 deaths, lighting at 55 deaths and hurricanes at 47 deaths (Frederick K. Lutgens, p.
279). In addition to killing those who are caught in its path, floods are responsible for death
through contaminated water sources. This problem is so prevalent the Centers for Disease
Control has protocols for interaction with flood waters as they are often contaminated with
sewage and foster a good breeding ground for deadly microbes.
Financial Burdens
Each year billions of dollars are lost in property and crops due to flooding, flash flooding, and
Urban/Stream flooding. The graph below shows the national costs per year from flooding from
1934 - 2000
(A Reanalysis of National Weather Service Estimates, 2015)
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Notice the steady increase of the trend line and difference of flooding frequencies before and
after 1970.
Annual Cost of Floood Damage in Utah
$100,000,000
$1,000,000
$10,000
$100
$1
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
(National Weather Service , 2007 - 2014)
Once again by following the trend line we can see the total costs of flooding in Utah are
rising. The cost of property damage broke past the million dollar mark in 2011 ultimately
capping at 24 million dollars. Notice the most expensive year on record is also the year with the
most precipitation since 1983, and that year marks the time when flooding occurrences were
nearly double that of any other previous year. Flooding since then has yet to dip below 3 million
dollars in costs. The explosion of cost mirrors the sudden increase of flooding events and it is
evident that an increase in flooding events will increase the costs to property and crops.
To understand the scope of what this means for Utah it is necessary to look at what
possibilities we can expect going into the future:
Possible Cost Increases from Flooding
$35,000,000
$30,000,000
$25,000,000
$20,000,000
$15,000,000
$10,000,000
$5,000,000
$0
2014 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
10% Cost Increase
15% Cost Increase
20% Cost Increase
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If the costs of flooding only increase 10% annually (a very conservative estimate) we can
expect to pay $59,125,000 over the next 10 years. Should cost increase 15% the 10 year cost will
be $130,877,358, and a 20% increase will cost $172,808,500.
Solutions
Given that floods are costing lives and money and we can only expect them to become more
frequent, and thus a greater financial burden, serious preventative actions must be taken.
Education of Policy
The first line of defense against damage from flooding is education. After reading the 2014
Hazard Mitigation Plan (Utah’s hazard risk assessment and action plan) it is evident that the
people who are responsible for protecting against natural disasters do not have a firm grasp of
Utah’s changing climate. The following excerpts are what the Hazard Mitigation Plan site as
reasons for increased flood risk:
 “Utah has seen a new kind of flood risk emerge that includes canal failures and flooding
and debris flows related to watersheds damaged by wildfire.”
 “Utah's farm lands are now being used for residential development…. This is placing
residential development near and often below irrigation canals that are not engineered
and lack consistence maintenance.”
 “Post fire related flooding results from enhanced runoff from fire damaged watershed.”
Climate is only mentioned twice in the entire document “Frequency of inundation depends
on the climate, soil, and channel slope.” and one the following table:
The way climate is presented in the document suggests its importance for flooding events to
be practically non-existent. Furthermore, the document focuses almost exclusively on building
into flood paths as being the major factor for the increase of risk in human life and property
damage. The document does not address the expected rises in temperatures or rainfall from
climate change.
Hopefully, with the consensus from the Paris Climate committee which calls for real action to
be taken to reduce the impacts of climate change; future documents will address this cause with
the seriousness that it deserves.
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Education for the Populous
It is worth noting that according to a Dan Jones Survey 36% of Utahans did take climate
change and its risks seriously.
If the remaining 64% can be properly educated about climate change and what impacts are
likely then perhaps we can get achieve more comprehensive action. The 2014 Hazard Mitigation
Plan suggests providing flood information through the use of brochures and provide safety
information. I add that the state be providing climate change information as well.
It is also imperative that representatives of our state publicly speak about climate change risks
and realities. It is very important that climate change become a bipartisan issue so other political
rhetoric will not cloud empirical science. Also, the science of climate change should be taught in
schools, however, for that to be achieved it must first be freed from political discourse.
Infrastructure
If we are to mitigate the damage caused by flooding the most obvious solution is to not build
in flood plains and wetlands. The continued expansion into these areas only serves to increase
risk and potential costs, alongside the loss of life of those who are caught in the natural disaster.
The growing population, while in need of accommodation, should not be expected to be
burdened by the risks of floods and landslides. The 2014 Hazard Mitigation Plan does address
this as being an important step to prevent damage, however, it calls for no concrete legislative
action to prevent development.
In addition to the discontinuation of high risk development we also need to be increasing the
funding going into preventative and supportive infrastructure. Thankfully the 2014 Hazard
Mitigation Plan calls of this action as well, calling for the following:
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1. Remove debris and vegetation from floodways and
drainage structures through a systematic maintenance
program.
2. Improve flood resistance through enhancement of wing
walls, flood barriers, foundations, etc., at likely flood
impact points.
3. Construct debris basins, flood retention ponds, energy
flow dissipaters in an effort to control the flow and release
of flood waters.
Regardless of the causes of flooding, the above proposed actions will serve to decrease the
burdening costs. In addition to the above steps if would be prudent to make flood shelters for
communities at particularly high risk.
Summary
To quote John Wesley Powell “Years of drought and famine come and years of flood and
famine come, and climate is not changed with dance, libation or prayer.” If we are to be
successful moving into the future we must act in accordance with the data, and not simply hope
for good fortune. Major restoration projects to Utah’s drainage system must be updated to handle
flooding. Communities must not be developed in flood plains. Comprehensive education about
the growing risks of floods must reach the public sphere. Above all we cannot wait for what the
future will bring. The impacts of global warming are already occurring and any further delay for
solutions is to condemn innocent lives to death and squander financial resources.
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Bibliography
Melanie Spencer, Emily S.B. Stembridge, Lynn U. Phillips. (n.d.). Climate Change and Public Health in
Utah. Salt Lake City: Utah Department of Health. Retrieved from
http://health.utah.gov/enviroepi/publications/Climate%20Change%20Booklet%20WEB%20comp
ressed.pdf
A Reanalysis of National Weather Service Estimates. (2015, 12 11). Retrieved from Flood Damage in the
United States: http://www.flooddamagedata.org/use_interpretation.html
Famework Convention of Climate Chagne. (2015). ADOPTION OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT.
Conference of the Parties (p. 1). Paris: United Nations .
Forecast, N. W. (2015, 12 11). Salt Lake City Climate Book. Retrieved from National Weather Service
Forcast Office:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/climate/slcclimate/SLC/pdfs/Water%20Year%20Precipitation%20R
anked%20by%20Year.pdf
Frederick K. Lutgens, E. J. (2013). The Atmosphere an Introduction to Meteorology, 12 Edition.
Glenview: Pearson.
National Weather Service . (1990 - 2014, 12). United States Flood Loss Report. Silver Spring: National
Oceanic and Atmopheric Administration. Retrieved from United States Flood Loss Report :
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/hic/summaries/WY2012.pdf
Public Health Indicator Based Information System. (2015, 12 11). Complete Health Indicator Report of
Climate Change: Extreme Weather Events. Retrieved from Public Health Indicator Based
Information System: http://ibis.health.utah.gov/indicator/complete_profile/CliChaExtWea.html
Public Health Indicator Based Information System. (2015, 10 10). Health Indicator Report of Climate
Change: Extreme Weather Events. Retrieved from Public Health Indicator Based Information
System: http://ibis.health.utah.gov/indicator/view/CliChaExtWea.FloCos.html
Reichler, T. (2015, 12 11). Model Based Climate Predictions for Utah. Retrieved from University of
Utag: http://www.inscc.utah.edu/~reichler/talks/papers/Reichler_SLC_0902.pdf
Robert R. Gillies, S.-Y. W. (2011, 07). Observational and synoptic analyses of the winter precipitation
regime change over Utah. Logan: Journal of Climate. Retrieved from Manuscript (non-LaTeX):
http://cliserv.jql.usu.edu/paper/JCLI-Utah-Snow.pdf
Staff, L. S. (2014, 01 14). What's the Deadliest Natural Phenomenon? Retrieved from Live Science:
http://www.livescience.com/32410-whats-the-deadliest-natural-phenomenon.html
Utah Department of Safety. (2015, 12 12). Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) Program. Retrieved from
Utah Department of Safety:
https://site.utah.gov/publicsafety/emergencymanagement/floodassistance.html
Utah Hazard and Mitigation Recovery. (2015, 11 15). Hazard Mitigation in Utah using FEMA programs.
Retrieved from Utah Hazard and Mitigation Recovery: https://uthazardmitigation.wordpress.com/
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