1 Financial Risk Tolerance and Country Based Pooled Funds E. Rackley, OCHA consultant Comments to Jock Paul: paul11@un.org I. Executive Summary The practices and protocols of financial risk management and mitigation across UN operations, and OCHA-managed Country Based Pooled Funds specifically, have evolved significantly since the 2005 Humanitarian Reform effort for greater aid effectiveness that led, in part, to this creation of this multi-donor funding instrument. Since then the number of CBPFs has increased dramatically, and they now serve an unprecedented number of humanitarian crises. With their consultative decision-making processes and inclusion of implementing partners (national and international NGOs), donors, and UN agencies, CBPFs are uniquely positioned to analyze risk and develop mitigation strategies to ensure the effective delivery of life-saving assistance in extremely volatile, constantly evolving emergency environments. The purpose of this study is to foster dialogue among CBPF stakeholders around the various aspects of financial risk (appetite, tolerance and thresholds) that arise the in the CBPF context, including those stemming from third party implementing partners operating in remote areas without direct oversight. Questions pursued by the research include: To what degree does the existing CBPF architecture and its consultative management approach allow for enhanced risk sharing among partners—or are financial risks simply being transferred down the fiduciary chain of actors, with the highest risks borne by implementing partners on the ground? How do different CBPF partners perceive risk tolerance (appetite or aversion), and how do these perceptions change depending on one’s position within the fiduciary chain? Is there a shared willingness to consider an explicit risk tolerance policy—would partners agree to an acceptable amount of loss, for instance? Salient findings include: Given the consultative decision-making processes of CBPFs (with multistakeholder Advisory Boards and Humanitarian Coordinators), the instrument offers a strong, even unique degree of collective oversight, which translates into a qualified form of risk sharing. Yet more effort can be made to identify evolving risks, improve mitigation measures, and maximize the comparative advantage of the CBPF consultative dynamic to enhance performance in the face of evolving risks as emergency needs fluctuate in country. Overall, donors realize that given the volatility of CBPF contexts, loss and leakage will occur, but are not interested in an explicit policy that quantifies acceptable loss. 2 While donors appreciate the heightened risks of CBPFs in the world’s most corrupt and volatile states, they are adamant about ‘zero tolerance’ for weak risk management among fund managers and program implementers. In other words, donors are tolerant of risk but intolerant of poor risk management. They expect the same intolerance and vigilance of all partner institutions, particularly the custodian of a given CBPF. OCHA’s challenge is to raise the quality of financial risk management across all CBPFs to an equally high standard. Discussions of risk tolerance (appetite or aversion) are therefore important only if the risk management policies and practices in place are robust. Donors and partners concur that a well-managed, responsive fund can increase risk appetite, just as a poorly run or slow fund has the adverse effect. While useful to distinguish risk management from risk tolerance for the purposes of improving the structure and performance of CBPFs, the two concepts and behaviors are inextricable and causally linked. Without tested and effective risk management systems, discussion of risk tolerance is a pointless exercise. Similarly, a well-designed risk management system does not guarantee its effective application—both conceptual and operational dimensions must be robust and visibly effective. The quality of the risk management framework in place is also distinct from the operational strength of the fund itself, both of which can influence risk tolerance. And even where risk management systems are implemented effectively, loss can still arise--‘residual risk’. CBPF Advisory Boards work to identify risks and formulate mitigation strategies in a consultative, consensual manner, so that all partners are apprised of the risks at hand before the funds flow. Standard Operating Procedures are triggered whenever a case of residual risk arises. Many partners therefore see ‘risk sharing’ as a distraction from the emphasis on continued improvement of CBPF risk management systems, as well as the collective risk assessment work of the Advisory Boards. If all these are solid, risksharing considerations are moot. Strong local partners are essential to accessing remote populations, yet they are widely viewed as the greatest financial risk within a CBPF. How to strengthen the weakest link in a CBPF fiduciary chain? All parties stressed the importance of capacity building for local partners to improve their internal systems and reporting. “Not just local partners but equal partners should be a performance outcome of these funds,” said one. Enabling local partners to be fully accountable is linked to “our accountability to populations, not just to donors,” said another. Recommendations include: 3 For OCHA and donors: A risk tolerance policy is not only not feasible, but innocuous. Continuing to empower donors and all CBPF stakeholders with the tools and opportunities to identify and manage context-specific risks will increase risk appetite in situations of extreme urgency. This should be happening across all CBPFs when Humanitarian Coordinators issue an allocation strategy, the result of Advisory Board consultations. All risks should have been discussed ahead of any fund allocation, with clear knowledge of how risks will be managed. For OCHA and donors: Should CBPFs contribute to the ‘localization of aid’ and ‘national resilience’ agendas by increasing support for risk management training for local NGOs by third party service providers? Increased funding for risk management capacity training for local NGOs will balance out the perception of ‘risk dumping’ and further the localization of aid agenda, the latter an anticipated theme of the World Humanitarian Summit. OCHA’s stance is that CBPFs should enable front line responders to deliver assistance (be it national or international NGOs) and, to do that, there are systems in place to identify and assess the capacity of viable partners. For OCHA and donors: Consider early and midway real-time monitoring of CBPFs to identify RM vulnerabilities and strengths. Proactive monitoring and analysis that mimics the speed of operations (from proposal to allocation to delivery) as opposed to end-of-program (forensic) evaluations can improve how risk is being handled institutionally and collectively, and offer preventive corrections. Such exercises will correct flaws early, spread best practices and incentivize vigilance, transparency and communication around risk, fraud, diversion, etc. For OCHA, donors and implementing partners: Consider funding for capacity building in financial management for qualifying local partners, so they can meet eligibility requirements to receive CBPF funds. This is not a short-term solution to spreading risk, but it helps local partners become, eventually, equal partners. Currently INGOs may choose to limit their risk by avoiding local NGOs who are unable to meet their compliance requirements. The result is less delivery of emergency services. “The UN needs INGOs to reach national NGOs, but their [fiduciary] limitations make this impossible,” said one INGO representative. II. Introduction 1. Funding through OCHA-managed CBPFs (i.e. Common Humanitarian Funds and Emergency Response Funds) in 2014 accounted for 2.6% of the international humanitarian response for a total of over US$453 million.1 CBPFs routinely operate in high-risk environments with severe access restrictions due to insecurity. In this regard, 1 OCHA Funding Coordination Section 4 remote management modalities have been increasingly adapted to provide assistance in areas deemed unsafe for UN staff while shifting responsibilities for programme delivery to local third-party implementing partners (local and international NGOs, Red Cross and civil society organizations). CBPFs are targeted towards providing effective, efficient and supplemental support to the country’s Humanitarian Response Plan and often endeavor to strike a balance between providing life-saving assistance and putting in place effective oversight mechanisms on third-party implementing partners. II. Purpose of Study 2. The study aims to foster dialogue among stakeholders around the various aspects of financial risk (appetite, tolerance and thresholds) that arise the in the CBPF context, including those arising from third-party implementing agencies operating in remote areas without direct oversight. There is a need to create a common understanding of risk tolerance across all CBPFs to then be shared with all stakeholders. Such a common understanding would not change existing due diligence standards, but enrich partner perceptions of sharing risk as distinct from risk transfer between donors, OCHA and implementing partners. 3. The study also looks at the need for proper messaging aimed at increasing literacy in risk tolerance, and wider communications around the subject. Study findings and recommendations will feed into OCHA Funding Coordination Section (FCS) risk management policy to enhance risk management within Country Based Pooled Funds. 4. Finally, the study aims to collect and represent the diverse views of CBPF stakeholders on matters specific to risk sharing such as percentage of acceptable loss, fiduciary capacity of local partners, and how risk tolerance relates to the original objectives of the aid reform agenda of 2005. In advance of the upcoming World Humanitarian Summit and its theme of ‘nationalizing response’ (national preparedness, resiliency), these findings will help OCHA and partners develop a position on increasing national response capacity, be it self-funded or through international partnerships. Investing in national capacity is arguably in OCHA’s interest as well, with stronger risk management system across all CBPFs the desired result. III. Methods 5. The study findings presented here issue from a comparative desk analysis of existing risk tolerance policies of relevant UN agencies, donors, Bretton Woods institutions, NGOs and the private sector. This was followed by a series of in-depth interviews with relevant donors, UN operational agencies (UNICEF, UNDP), senior OCHA staff in New York, Geneva and in CBPF countries (South Sudan, Afghanistan, etc.), international NGO partners, and some national partners. While these latter exist in several CBPF countries, the study did not have time to consult all. 5 IV. Growth of CBPFs and Risk Management 6. As mentioned above, CBPFs have multiplied in line with the unprecedented number of large-scale humanitarian crises today. Managing increasing levels of financial risk associated with this growth and scape of operations has resulted in two major areas of investment: protocols, procedures and safeguards to prevent financial loss and diversion (‘ex ante’), and a similarly standard procedures that are engaged once losses are suspected (‘ex post’), ideally resulting in their recovery. This study does not investigate the integrity of these risk management systems, but the state of their performance is a factor in determining the risk appetite of any CBPF. 7. In the field, CBPF management is supported by dedicated Humanitarian Financing Units (HFU) through the OCHA Country Office. Within these HFUs, Afghanistan and Somalia have also established Risk Management Units. These RMUs help stakeholders map and track financial risks, fiduciary vulnerabilities and challenges, establish common guidelines, and identify lapses in risk management procedures and protocols of participating institutions. They bring an additional level of independent oversight to help reduce the risks of such operations. In so doing, they arguably serve to increase risk awareness among donors and implementing partners. 8. Within CBPFs, remote management of operations and local implementing partners is an increasingly common, still evolving modality that carries great financial risk but whose primary dividend is access to otherwise isolated populations in danger. The fiduciary challenge of remote management is compounded in places like Syria, which has no history of non-state, third party or community organizations providing emergency relief under contract to the UN or to international NGOs. Other risk management studies have highlighted these challenges,2 underscoring the reality that fraud occurs in high-risk settings and that some loss is to be expected when working in these environments. Donors actively participate in CBPF Advisory Boards so are wellapprised of all associated risks before funds are allocated to partners. 9. At the same time, risk management is increasingly viewed as a ‘tool for development’, a bridge towards greater national resilience and stronger local partners, with potential to increase local agency and autonomy in times of natural and man-made disasters.3 For this reason, the study refers occasionally to ‘localization of aid’, ‘resilience’ and similar agendas which may be outside the specific mandate of CBPFs and risk tolerance but which many partners consider to be relevant, even connected. V. Terms and challenges around risk literacy and CBPFs Marc Jacquand and Shelley Ranii. UN Development System Risk Management in Fragile States, a White paper for the 2014 Spring Meeting of the Utstein Group. 14 April 2014. Center on International Cooperation (CIC) New York University (NYU) 3 World Development Report 2014 2 6 10. Risk tolerance, appetite and aversion are related areas of interest that comprise the focus of this study. In their simplest form, risk attitude, appetite and tolerance are often used interchangeably to describe an organization's attitude towards risk taking—risk understood as the effect uncertainty on objectives. Risk averse, risk neutral and risk seeking are variations of these terms also be used to describe one’s risk attitude. Risk tolerance looks at acceptable/unacceptable deviations from what is expected. Risk appetite looks at how much risk one is willing to accept, and the variations across that appetite faced with specific threats or unknowns. 11. The consultative nature of CBPFs results in a qualified mode of risk sharing, attractive to the stakeholders interviewed for this study because the process mitigates the risk of bad programming decisions and large sums wasted on ineffective projects. Group decision-making is no guarantee against failure, but the domestic political pressures and accountability to which donors are subject prevent this risk pooling from providing false comfort, as donors and implementing agencies strive individually to assess the risks, potential for loss, and improve mitigation measures already in place. 12. In the humanitarian sector, where donors and the UN are under political pressure to show presence and to deliver results, as in Syria today, a higher risk appetite may be politically driven. This appetite may not be shared by CBPF implementing partners inside Syria who may be more cautious given the poor fiduciary capacity of their local partners operating remotely without oversight or strong management and reporting systems. Who then is best suited to extrapolate from these different perspectives the ‘risk tolerance level’ for that CBPF at a given time? All interviewed for this study see the Humanitarian Coordinator as the logical candidate for this role, with OCHA support, as custodian or steward of the CBPF. 13. As in the financial world, the desire for immediate impact (return on investment) without a defined appetite for risk can lead to disaster. Previous episodes of risk management failure (unaccountable losses) in Somalia and DRC were caused in part by the fiduciary risks of local partners being poorly understood and inadequately monitored. OCHA, or other contracting authority in its stead, can also make the mistake of focusing on the appetite of one group of stakeholders (donors, for instance) without giving sufficient weight to the concerns of partners on the ground. This parallel from the private sector holds true: the CBPF managing agent should endeavor to define the overall risk appetite in a way that reflects the different levels of tolerance expressed by all stakeholders, and to identify the various risks involved at each level in the fiduciary chain. These may include financial management and reporting, fiduciary capacity of local partners, impact vs. delivery (process indicators versus measurable change), safety and security of staff, etc. VI. Major findings 7 14. Salient findings of the study can be grouped under the following subject headings: CBPFs and risk sharing; linkages between risk appetite and risk management; pros and cons of fixing a limit on acceptable losses; concerns around transparency and communication of financial risk matters; and new initiatives and proposed changes to the way CBPFs and management agencies handle risk. Within each topic are a short number of related sub-topics. Findings and analysis are offered here with a minimum of interpretation: the aim is to capture and reflect the views of CBPF partners in their original candor and honesty. (a) CBPFs enable limited risk sharing 15. Among the reasons donors value CBPFs as vital instruments in emergency settings, shared analysis and collective decision making were cited as significant but not essential. Most attractive were the improved coordination, efficiency (despite “cascading administrative costs”) and timeliness of the instruments in disbursing humanitarian funding in a comprehensive and strategic fashion for maximum quick impact. Continued and increased support for current and new CBPFs in humanitarian emergencies around the world shows that donors in particular understand and accept the financial risks involved. Many donors stressed the fact that if they were truly risk averse they would be elsewhere. 16. For small donors who are not always present inside an emergency context, CBPFs are seen as an excellent means of reducing the risk of poor programming decisions. Larger donors have first-hand information and a direct understanding of the division of labor between UN agencies, international and local partners, all of which amounts to improved oversight, and lowers the risk for smaller donors. All donors commended the instrument for, in DFID’s words, “preventing the fragmentation of strategic oversight,” a net gain that would be lost if emergency response reverted to a web of bilateral arrangements. 17. Another attractive feature is that CBPFs contribute directly to a stronger country coordination team, and this includes the collective decision making aspect of the instrument. Donors claimed to be “well aware” of the financial risks involved, but that their engagement is conditional upon the strength of the managing agent’s financial and risk management systems. Their domestic reputations and institutional culture require that they acknowledges a trade-off between risk and saving lives in countries that are among the highest on the World Bank’s global corruption index and lowest on the Human Development Index. 18. While risk appetite may be higher among donors and fund managers, it was found to be lower at the field level where local delivery groups (CSOs, national NGOs, etc.) are contracted by INGOs and UN agencies to deliver assistance to populations in need. Most local partners do not qualify to receive funding directly from CBPFs due to lack of strong financial management and reporting systems, and so require direct oversight by CBPF 8 implementing partners. A typical arrangement would be that the national NGO with better access, knowledge of conflict dynamics and relationships with different armed groups manages the physical delivery of aid supplies but all financial transactions (procurement, salaries, hiring, etc.) are run by the CBPF partner, often an INGO. In the fiduciary chain of any CBPF, then, the highest probability for fraud and waste is where emergency assistance reaches its final destination—the populations in danger, or endusers of the fund. It is at this critical delivery point where accounting, reporting and risk management systems are most vulnerable, because CBPF partners are accountable both for their own actions and transactions as well as those of their sub-contracted local partners. 19. This dual burden means that the management and reporting systems of CBPF partners are stretched to the point of vulnerability—a 100% increase in workload, because covering their own plus another organization’s financial management—and oversight of weak local agencies on whom they depend for project delivery is a job in itself. Here the risk is not leakage or fraud per se but of compromised reporting due to overstretched systems, which can result in insufficiently justified expenses deemed unallowable by the donor. 20. Risk transfer or risk sharing? Risks that are not shared are passed from donors to CBPF implementing partners. When asked if they saw the CBPF as a means to share risks or, conversely, to pass on accountability, donors stated that the mechanism is a means of transferring or delegating financial risk to UN agencies and implementing partners and then holding them accountable, an attractive arrangement on many levels. This does not absolve donors of the need for vigilant risk management and rigorous accountability to their own constituencies. Humanitarian emergencies are increasing in number as many donor budgets decline, and a corresponding increase in parliamentary scrutiny and pressure to show high impact is one offshoot of this trend. When cases of loss arise and all due diligence and mitigation measures have been respected, donors stated a willingness to share the loss—but only on a case-by-case basis. 21. Appetite for risk favors the established, well funded INGO and not the smaller, possibly better connected or specialized group. Further, pending a formal contract award, large INGOs may choose to advance their own resources to initiate life-saving programming, then seek reimbursement post-award: such autonomy is itself a form of risk-taking and risk-transfer that precludes smaller groups without corporate funds. The implied risk transfer structure and stringent eligibility requirements of CBPFs therefore appears to disfavor smaller INGOs and local NGOs from participating directly and assuming or sharing risk themselves. Important to note here however is that CBPF guidelines do allow coverage of a number of operating costs to encourage participation by qualifying local partners. While CBPFs are directly accessible to national NGOs, they typically receive the smallest portion of CBPF funding (i.e., 14% in 2014). 9 22. The result, as reported by study participants, is that risk is concentrated in the hands of very few CBPF partners on the ground, who must oversee and assume responsibility for small local actors. Here is where international CBPF partners feel the impact of risk transfer (‘dumping’) most acutely: the 7% management or overhead fee taken on CBPF contracts returns to headquarters and is not shared with the field offices that implement the projects. Because running costs in country must then be assumed, CBPFs are often only realistic for large INGOs and UN agencies. This results in the concentration of risk and accountability among the few actors who can afford to be there. While fewer actors is one way to mitigate risk, in this case it achieves the opposite because these few risk-taking actors are entirely responsible and accountable for the financial integrity of all their local partners, few of whom have viable risk management systems or mitigation measures. Their oversight procedures are made more vulnerable by the demands of remote management and the impossibility of independent verification, exposing the CBPF partner to allegations of diversion to criminal or armed groups, for example. 23. Divergence on risk sharing: While some INGOs felt that because they assume most of the risk, that donors should share any legitimate losses—the so-called “humanitarian exception”—although this view was a minority. Most INGOs see this demand as unrealistic, given that their level of risk tolerance is informed by the risk management requirements of the donor whose funds the INGOs are seeking. Like other CBPF stakeholders, donors included, INGOs themselves have strict policies on fraud (zero tolerance), proactive due diligence and strict practices to identify and mitigate fraud and misuse. They recognize that this vigilance entails overhead costs and corporate investment: the cost of doing business, essentially. Donors understandably assess the policies and practices of CBPF partners as part of their decision to contribute; the abovecited expectation that donors should share unaccountable losses (humanitarian exception) is therefore unrealistic. 24. ‘Risk dumping’ and managing the risks posed by local partners. INGOs and UN agencies see themselves at the bottom of the risk transfer chain, responsible for their own financial activities as well as those of local partners, while struggling to deliver results in highly volatile situations without rule of law, effective law enforcement or other reliable institution of recourse should gross malfeasance occur at the hands of local partners. One consequence of these liability concerns can be risk aversion (e.g., avoiding local partners whose independence from Shabab or ISIS cannot be verified, whose staff consist entirely of family members but that offer the only access to remote areas, etc.), which can in turn limit the reach and volume of life-saving assistance for the most needy. Many CBPF partners voiced the need to invest in stronger fiduciary capacity for local agencies, allowing greater risk sharing with them, although this is clearly a longterm investment and beyond the current emergency response mandate and short-term horizon of CBPFs. 10 25. While the global CBPF guidelines do not exclude capacity building as an eligible part of a project, the projects that are submitted are judged according to the priorities in the allocation document. The strategic direction of the allocation is developed by OCHA on behalf of the HC, and is based upon the Humanitarian Response Plan, which would usually not include national capacity building. In order for the CBPFs to support capacity development, it needs to be included in the standard allocation. 26. Within a CBPF financial risk itself is not formally shared (as in a commercial investment), but the analysis of threats and vulnerabilities in the operational landscape is, and this common understanding or analysis informs the overall allocation strategy. This collective dimension of the enterprise builds mutual confidence among parties to the fund, and can result in an increased appetite for financial risk. As in the private sector, group consensus on risk appetite does not guarantee that the fund will perform as advertised. (b) Causal Link between Risk Management and Risk Tolerance 27. Risk appetite (risk seeking or risk averse) is directly linked to the quality of risk management policies and practices in place with every actor inside a given CBPF. Donors and partners concur that a well-managed and responsive fund can increase risk appetite, just as a poorly run or slow fund has the adverse effect. For this reason, in the course of this study, risk management came up in every discussion of risk appetite, hence the frequency of ‘risk management’ in this report. While useful to distinguish the two for OCHA’s purposes of improving the structure and performance of CBPFs, the two concepts and behaviors are inextricably, even causally, linked. Without tested and effective risk management systems, the determination of risk appetite is a pointless exercise. 28. UN agency representatives and CBPF stakeholders within the UN understand that building trust takes time and that risk appetite is a management process, not an agreement to be signed and implemented. Donors cannot be expected to discuss risk sharing until risk management systems are updated and harmonized across agencies, funds and countries of implementation (and newly revised CBPF guidelines introduce a common risk management model for all CBPFs). There is a widely shared awareness that UN agencies are still learning how to better manage financial risk and at the same time—per donor pressure and the humanitarian imperative—take more risks, including working with local partners in remote areas. 29. Donors were explicit that a well-designed risk management system does not guarantee its effective application—both conceptual and operational dimensions must be robust and visibly effective. Similarly, donors highlighted their distinction between the quality of the risk management framework in place and the operational strength of the fund itself. Financials systems may be well protected and monitored but if each grant exceeds the agreed fund allocation speed (50 days) to reach a local partner, this 11 becomes another form of risk. Low confidence in the fund and in OCHA’s ability to produce timely allocations could deter future contributions from donors. 30. And while donors may appreciate the heightened risks due to CBPF presence in the world’s most corrupt and volatile states, they are adamant on their ‘zero tolerance’ for weak risk management among fund managers and program implementers. In other words, donors are tolerant of risk but intolerant of poor risk management. They expect the same intolerance and vigilance of all partner institutions, particularly the custodian of a given fund, be it OCHA or UNDP. Loss itself carries the risk that donor confidence will be negatively affected, with the potential consequence of decreased funding levels. At present, these expectations are not explicit in any common policy, operating agreement or MOU between donors, managing agents and implementing agencies. 31. For this reason and others explained in this report, the prospect of sharing losses traced to poor risk management systems is a non-starter. Formal acknowledgment of the high risk of loss given the volatility of fund working environments is not a problem in itself, but “what would it solve?” asked one donor. Advisory Boards enable donors to be fully apprised of the risk management measures in place and the risks facing a fund. Without perhaps a formal consensus, the consultative work of Advisory Boards serves to ensure that these measures are adequate to the risks at hand. 32. And yet, all risk management systems being effectively implemented, there are still things that can go wrong. Instances of residual risk need not result in accusations or finger pointing, because all parties are apprised of the risks, mitigation measures in place, and the Standard Operating Procedures that go into effect when a loss is reported. OCHA reported that guidelines for final decisions on whether unaccountable losses are allowable or not are still vague. Donors too preferred a case-by-case approach. 33. Because trust and risk appetite are not automatic but built through proven risk management policies and performance, questions of risk tolerance (appetite or aversion) depend on the state of this foundation, and cannot be addressed abstractly. CBPF partners were unanimous that risk appetite is directly proportionate to the strength of risk management systems and the performance of all actors in the CBPF system. Timeliness and proactive communication is also key, but strong local partners are an equally essential ingredient to maximal returns on donor investments. 34. For this reason, all parties interviewed stressed the importance of capacity building for local partners to improve their internal systems and reporting. “Not just local partners but equal partners should be a performance outcome of these funds,” said one. Empowering local partners to be fully accountable will strengthen the fiduciary chain and is linked to “our accountability to populations, not just to donors,” another party explained. Who should be tasked with this is another question, but local third 12 party services were a common preference over international management consulting firms. 35. A contrarian view captured in this study is worth sharing: the perception that donors will always resist a harmonized set of policy and practices on risk management (allowable costs vs. fraud, eligibility requirements for local NGOs etc.), because concerns about risk may buy them time or permit an exit from negotiations over CBPF support. Some donors see risk as a bargaining chip with utilitarian value, and therefore reaching a definite conclusion on questions of risk management standards, risk sharing modalities, etc., is not in their interest. Political expediency can increase risk appetite for donors much more than proven risk management systems in place. As mentioned above, domestic political or media pressure to be visible in Syria or Yemen today, for instance, can serve as a powerful incentive for higher risk appetites, despite the fact that local partners may have to liaise with known militias or even terrorist groups to reach affected populations. (c) Quantifying Acceptable Loss 36. Overall, donors realize that loss and leakage will occur in the country contexts where CBPFs operate, but they are not interested in an explicit policy that quantifies acceptable loss, for reasons presented in this section. INGO perspectives on the subject were diverse, from seeing no benefit to a fixed loss figure to the view that ‘sharing risks means sharing losses’. 37. Study findings indicate that identifying a specific level of risk tolerance is problematic for donors except in the case of concrete scenarios, and even here reactions vary significantly. For example, subcontracting a local organization with little fiduciary capacity may be an acceptable risk where needs are great, while implementing the project directly and paying local militias for access to populations is unacceptable (source: UN and NGO representatives). Both however are daily realities and must be assumed. 38. This is connected to the fact that effective emergency programming, often inside conflict, inevitably involves trade-offs, yet not everyone agrees on where acceptable leakage becomes misuse. All agree however that information sharing based on strict protocols, rapid reporting of suspicious actors or practices, and robust risk management systems built on common understandings are the essential foundations for maintaining operational confidence and a healthy appetite for risk among all stakeholders. 39. Arguments for and against quantifying acceptable loss. Leakage versus fraud or diversion is seen as impossible to define categorically or in the abstract. Even consensus on whether payments to militias for access to populations are allowable was deemed “context dependent.” CBPF contexts vary too drastically, even within a single country, to permit standardization. This does not preclude the possibility of consensus in the case of 13 an established access point requiring payment to, for instance, Al Shabab. Making the case in advance and providing evidence that alternatives are lacking can suffice as justification in such a case. Again, these are purely contextual and fluid within a changing operational context such as Somalia. 40. After the Somalia fraud cases, donors were explicit that they expect to be informed of these grey areas and questionable practices so that an understanding can be reached and a crisis avoided. CBPF Advisory Boards can serve as a forum for proactive communication around evolving risks analysis. When alerted to an alleged fraud or misappropriation, donors expect partners to demonstrate exhaustive efforts to recover unaccountable funds before considering a write-off. Besides the Advisory Board, no formal instrument exists to inform and educate donors of all forms of risk (local partner capacity, armed groups among beneficiaries, etc.) and how managing agents and CBPF partners are mitigating these risks. For some, this is inadequate. UNDP specifically identified this as a gap in the risk management landscape, without which agreements around loss and risk at the country level will remain an ad hoc affair. 41. Political necessity dictates that donors declare a zero tolerance policy on fraud, making the proposal of a quantified risk threshold or percentage of acceptable loss moot. However, one of CBPF’s largest donors (SIDA) is distancing itself from zero tolerance given the fact that CBPFs operate in the world’s most corrupt and dangerous countries, where the high risk of loss is a reality. Still a specific loss threshold, even where this might simplify budgetary planning in a volatile emergency context, remains unattractive: “What happens when it’s exceeded?” said one donor. Donors insist however that where risk management policies and their application—an important distinction—are both manifestly solid, they will be more accommodating when issues of loss come up. 42. Paradoxical pairing: risk appetite and ‘zero tolerance’. While no CBPF partner agreed to specify a risk tolerance threshold, either quantitatively or as policy, the existence and popularity of CBPFs today underscore a high appetite for financial risk among CBPF stakeholders. Donors, fund management agencies and implementing partners stressed their institution’s ‘zero tolerance’ for fraud, diversion, misuse or other form of unaccountable loss. Anything less would cast doubt on their fiduciary credibility, with immediate reputational and political consequences. Even raising the possibility of sharing loss could be (mis)-perceived by some stakeholders as condoning lax vigilance. Some donors expressed the concern that any explicit agreement to share loss could inadvertently encourage diversion (up to the point of loss agreed). 43. Further, any formal agreement to share financial risk (i.e., share losses) could potentially be used against them, donors said, by political enemies seeking to malign their fiduciary capacity and custodianship of public funds. In this light, CBPFs do transfer risk along a fiduciary chain but no one is thereby absolved of financial, reputational and 14 political risk. CBPF stakeholders are accountable not only to each other but to multiple other interests and constituencies as well, few of which overlap. 44. Given the diversity of interests among stakeholders to a given CBPF, this study also found that it may be unrealistic to expect perfect consensus around risk despite continued dialog and ever-improving risk management systems. Partner institutions will always have their own internal regulations, standards of accountability and constituencies to appease. Identifying the “realm of the possible” in each operational context is the most realistic approach given the diversity of institutions, interests and operational modalities, not to mention the vastly different conditions under which CBPFs function. (d) Transparency and Messaging 45. Honesty about risk and necessary trade-offs. Managing expectations is part of today’s transparency and communications ethos, and has a role in debates around risk tolerance and appetite. Donors appreciate the risks involved and the higher returns that CBPFs yield. But to stipulate in writing that by working in high-risk environments where financial management systems are vulnerable and that a specific budget percentage will therefore go missing—this is not a viable position for any CBPF stakeholder. Such reasoning assumes a dubious transactional logic (“we take security risks for you, so help cover our losses”) that is more likely to breed resentment than trust. The desired response to any suspect situation is proactive communications so that high-level, donorinstigated investigations are avoided. This will build trust and can prevent reputational damage. 46. OCHA to propose new ways of communicating financial risk and risk tolerance to donors and partners. Various donors and partners suggested that OCHA propose an estimation of risks associated with a given CBPF and seek harmonization in advance of alleged fraud or unaccountable loss and then seeking a write-off from donors. This is an option, but risk analysis is a core activity CBPF advisory boards, who are asked to develop risks analysis and risk management papers, update them regularly and use them to make decisions when formulating, for instance, an allocation paper. Risk mapping is thus already part of CBPF guidelines; the challenge is implement it with quality. It is true that “holistic approaches can be counter-productive,” and that only by breaking financial risks down into their most likely forms will practical solutions emerge, ones that should not require additional administrative/bureaucratic protocols and MOUs. Risk Management Units in Somalia and Afghanistan presumably play this role to a degree, but are not fund custodians like OCHA, and are not accountable to donors in the same manner. 47. Transparency, shared understanding, and ‘risk literacy’. CBPF managers, country advisory teams and humanitarian coordinators are encouraged to continue seeking ways to incentivize collective risk management locally by identifying common interests, 15 known threats and vulnerabilities and hammering out protocols that reward or enable regular and responsive information sharing as problems arise. 48. Many stakeholders were optimistic about recent years of progress in CBPF management and efficiency but felt room for improvement remained: institutional selfpreservation still trumps public commitments to transparency, communication and collective accountability. As a result, appetite for risk can only mirror the strength of risk management systems in place, the quality of real-time information sharing and the proven ability to handle crises as they emerge. 49. Allowable costs. Inconsistent or absent guidelines that distinguish allowable from disallowable costs is frustrating for partner agencies, and can increase risk aversion. This is an unintended and undesirable consequence of the risk transfer structure of CBPFs. Although covered in detail in Chapter 5 of the CBPF guidelines, many partners reported very different experiences when trying to justify and recover costs from donors that fall in a grey area. Is the $200 paid at a checkpoint disallowed as diversion or considered an acceptable cost of doing business? As described above, a general standard is unrealistic but within a country context certain cases may be justified as allowable, many donors stated. They acknowledged the non-specificity of their policies, which are global and not country-specific, hence their preference for case-by-case assessments of allowable vs. unallowable cost. Prior mapping or inventory of potentially ineligible costs during the early allocation strategy phase could help manage expectations in this area. (e) Initiatives and changes 50. The prospect of common standards. All parties interviewed, particularly INGOs and donors, were emphatic that UN agencies need to harmonize their due diligence processes, risk management policies and practices, and compliance requirements—a “one stop shop” model that puts into practice the “One UN” slogan. This includes the need for a common understanding of risk tolerance across all CBPFs to be developed and shared with all stakeholders. The resulting common minimum due diligence standards and eligibility requirements could then be adopted and reflected among CBPF implementing partners on the ground, minimize and streamline administrative burdens and thereby liberate human and material resources for emergency service delivery, their proper objective. This finding is echoed throughout all best practice guidelines for humanitarian donors and is highlighted in the Good Humanitarian Donorship Principles. 51. Evidence of positive change includes OCHA’s donor portal, which serves as a repository for confidential communications on ongoing investigations in Somalia. Such transparency increases confidence that solid risk management systems are in place and thus prevent risk adversity from taking root. 52. Trade offs between needs and risk. In every emergency operation, the ‘humanitarian imperative’ will clash with risk management on the ground, particularly in 16 cases of remote management. OCHA can play a role in helping donors understand and trust that all possible due diligence was applied, given security constraints, before vital aid delivery got underway. Saving lives should take precedence when the demands of risk management obstruct or delay operations, and OCHA should be ready to defend IPs with solid financial management systems. Similarly, OCHA should show equal vigilance toward reducing its own onerous eligibility processes and promoting ease-of-use protocols, such as the one-time due diligence capacity assessment. 53. Invest in capacity building to reduce risks and increase local resiliency. In countries like Afghanistan, national NGOs have been receiving management training in multiple forms from many international partners for decades, and many NNGOs are now equal partners receiving direct funding from donors and UN agencies. In other FCAS countries with long-term emergency assistance programs, such as DR Congo, this development is less common. Finally, national NGOs in Afghanistan and South Sudan were emphatic that the rigor and practicality of the OCHA/UNDP capacity assessment process was an important learning experience for them because it exposed them to international standards—not just in word but in practice—that they would not otherwise be held to locally. This also serves as an example of well-targeted capacity building around specific, mutually agreed objectives to which recipient agencies can be held accountable. 54. Donors recognize that the weakest link in the fiduciary chain lies with national delivery partners. For this reason, they appreciate and encourage capacity building for local NGOs, entities that many donors are unable to work with given their weak systems and inability to meet compliance requirements. CBPFs are attractive because of this localization of responsibility and delivery by NNGOs, with the oversight and risk management assumed by OCHA and INGOs to whom local groups report. 55. Other INGOs see their relations with local partners as a series of trade-offs, and after exhaustive capacity assessments will collaborate on, for example, food delivery or health care, but retain control over all procurement or finances relating to the local partner. They will strengthen weak financial systems with training, sometimes over many years, and gradually allow the partner greater accountability and autonomy. One INGO reported seeing several of its long-term partners now able to contract directly with WFP, for example. CBPFs should support these approaches where possible, and allow budget lines in proposals to reinforce financial management systems. 56. The fact that most national NGOs and potential partners lack compliant financial systems and risk management tools is arguably one of the CBPF’s greatest obstacles to deeper access, wider coverage and higher volumes of aid delivered. Groups like the Humanitarian Leadership Academy and other initiatives work to identify and map the range of barriers for national NGOs and CSOs to being eligible to receiving direct assistance from INGOs, CBPFs and donors. Increasing the number of eligible local partners could exponentially increase the modalities and quantities of assistance delivered. Remote management is a related barrier to which there is no easy solution. 17 There is no current consensus on best practice for INGOs to manage risk remotely and prevent aid diversion to blacklisted individuals or terrorist activities; it is a work in progress. 57. OCHA and CBPF donors may wish to consider outsourcing the creation of an incountry platform to publicize funding opportunities and national NGO eligibility requirements, coupled with a project to identify common management weaknesses and offer training targeting these capacity gaps. Training in standardized risk management policies and practices could be offered. National NGOs may then more quickly be able to meet eligibility requirements of CBPF partners. 58. Ultimately, the ‘humanitarian imperative’ to save lives should not preclude capacity building and investments in local partners. Indeed, the concept should include capacity building and openly acknowledge a kinship with the ‘nationalization’ and resilience agendas. Without this expanded capacity, dependency on outsiders will remain the norm. Nor can risk be shared equally between CBPF partners; it will be ‘dumped’ on implementing partners to assume all risks of local agencies, if they choose to have any at all. Refusing local partners because of the high risks involved would be a perverse inversion of this expanded sense of humanitarian imperative, one that includes local capacity building for increased national resiliency. 59. National NGOs who are eligible for direct grants from CBPFs stated that most local partners are very far from having internal management systems that would meet donor requirements and make them equal partners. While many can transfer and track their finances, few have financial risk management tools in place. Besides trainings, a guideline for national NGOs would be useful, they said. 60. Competitive market for risk? If individual UN agencies identified their risk thresholds—emergency responders with higher risk of loss and long-term development agencies with less—donors could make funding decisions based on return on investment and degree of financial risk. This would mimic the private sector by forcing UN agencies to provide options for funding in a market environment that might appeal to donors. The potential impact on national NGOs and ability to reach people in need is unclear. IV. Conclusions and Recommendations 61. Quantifying appetite for risk and allowable loss is not advised or recommended, per the majority of stakeholders interviewed for this study. Continuing to invest in strong risk management systems and harmonizing reporting standards, protocols and procedures across fund partners is seen as vital. This will increase mutual trust and increase risk appetite correspondingly. The pressures of institutional self-preservation will remain, but as long as operational guidelines around proactive communication and 18 transparency regarding alleged fraud or ambiguous costs (e.g. paying militias for access) are shared and respected, CBPF partners will have less to hide. 62. Consider marrying the localization of aid and risk sharing agendas by increasing support for risk management capacity training for local NGOs. A commonly cited positive dividend of CBPFs for national partners is the experience and capacity building from INGOs enables them to seek funding independently—a benefit indeed, but infrequent for various reasons. Increased funding for risk management capacity training for local NGOs will balance out the ‘risk dumping’ problem, and further the localization of aid agenda. INGOs interviewed for this study complained that capacity building costs for local NGOs are absorbed as overhead and not accommodated by CBPF grants. Allowing such costs as detailed in CBPF partner proposals to train and monitor local agencies’ financial and reporting systems is also a step towards ‘nationalization’ and resilience, anticipated themes of the World Humanitarian Summit and of great interest to CBPF donors. In parallel, CBPF partners should seek to increase funding for risk and financial management for local NGOs. This too is an investment in local sustainability and national resilience. 63. Consider early and midway real-time monitoring of CBPFs to identify RM vulnerabilities and strengths. Proactive monitoring and analysis that mimics the speed of operations (from proposal to allocation to delivery) as opposed to end-of-program (forensic) evaluations can improve how risk is being handled institutionally and collectively, and offer preventive corrections. Such exercises will correct flaws early, spread best practices and incentivize vigilance, transparency and communication around risk, fraud, diversion, etc. Stakeholders making this recommendation framed it as “making CBPFs accountable to populations,” instead of exclusively to donors, which is currently the case. 64. To strengthen risk appetite and stakeholder confidence in RM systems, forego agreements on sharing risk/loss and develop an impact assessment tool for RM systems. Important for many reasons beyond the scope of this study, but if OCHA and its partners can demonstrate annually, for instance, the number and type of fraud allegations investigated and successfully handled, then discussions around sharing losses—case by case—are likely to be more fruitful. Donors were unanimous on this point: higher risk appetite and loss sharing is a privilege to be earned by implementers; it will never take the form of an MOU, legal obligation or public commitment. Developing a dedicated tool to track allegations and demonstrate the effectiveness of OCHA risk management will increase donor confidence and appetite for risk. 65. Include funding for capacity building in financial management for qualifying local partners, so they can meet eligibility requirements to receive funds from INGOs or OCHA. This is not a short-term solution to spreading risk, but it furthers the localization of aid agenda by helping local partners become, eventually, equal partners. Currently INGOs limit their risk by avoiding local NGOs who are unable to meet their compliance 19 requirements. The result is less delivery of emergency services. “The UN needs INGOs to reach national NGOs, but their [fiduciary] limitations make this impossible,” said one INGO representative. 66. Messaging around risk literacy. CBPF stakeholders have much to be proud of today: apart from high transaction costs (a pervasive frustration), all parties agreed that the funds were a vital addition to the emergency response toolbox. Communication around the realities of life saving in conflict and the financial risks involved should stress the mutual accountability of all CBPF partners, the high standards of their respective risk management systems, and their collective achievements all in the face of great odds. The whole is presumably greater than the sum of its parts, and OCHA should be able to demonstrate why CBPFs allow partners to achieve much more together than alone. 67. OCHA to accompany M&E and risk management activities of CBPF partners. Risk thresholds and donor confidence would arguably be higher if M&E and risk management oversight involve OCHA as a “second pair of eyes” to verify sound movement of monies, reporting and verification of delivery on the ground. OCHA would not substitute for partners’ own M&E and risk management policies and practices, but merely add value as an independent corroborator—ideally in real time instead of asking questions after quarterly reporting is received. Donor agreement would be needed, as additional resources would be required. Where OCHA does not have access, vetting and training local organizations (NGO, state agency, neutral CSO) to conduct this kind of independent verification is a feasible option.