ELECTIONS
KENYA 2013
A CONTINGENCY PLAN FOR THE AGRICULTURAL
AND LIVESTOCK SECTOR
i
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................. ii
1. ANALYSIS AND PLANNING .............................................................................................................. 1
1.1 Scenarios ...................................................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Conflict hotspots ....................................................................................................................... 1
1.3 Aggravating factors .................................................................................................................. 2
2. RESPONSE ............................................................................................................................................ 4
2.1 Coordination ............................................................................................................................... 4
2.2 Implementation arrangements ............................................................................................. 4
2.3 Preparedness activities ............................................................................................................ 4
2.4 Provision of inputs and livestock ......................................................................................... 4
2.5 Improving access to water and pasture ............................................................................. 5
2.6 Rehabilitation of infrastructure and businesses ............................................................. 5
2.7 Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MLND) .............................................................................. 5
2.8 Aflatoxin....................................................................................................................................... 6
2.9 Urban agriculture ...................................................................................................................... 6
3. BUDGET ................................................................................................................................................ 7
ANNEXES ................................................................................................................................................... 10
Annex 1: Response options and analysis .................................................................................. 10
Annex 2: Timeframe for proposed response options ............................................................ 14
i
Executive Summary
Following a disputed presidential election in Kenya in 2007/8, violence swept the
country, leaving some 1,300 people dead, some 600,000 internally displaced, and
significant levels of destruction of property and livelihoods. The agriculture and livestock
sector suffered significant losses in terms of destruction of crops, granaries, livestock,
land and property, as well as the disruption of land preparation, produce marketing
(particularly perishables such as milk) and other livelihoods activities.
Key humanitarian and development actors have been working with the Government of
Kenya to prepare contingency plans for pre- and post-election response. The Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is the lead agency in coordinating
emergency and early recovery responses for the agriculture and livestock sector.
Given the damage to agriculture and livestock during the 2007/8 post-election violence
and the fact that next year’s election takes place during the main planting season, FAO
and partners consider a contingency plan around the elections important to mitigate the
potential effects to agriculture and livestock.
The United Nations Country Team has concluded that the most likely scenario will see
some 400,000 – 450,000 people displaced in pre- and post-election unrest. It is
anticipated, however, that this will include temporary displacements and that not all of
those displaced will require livelihood support in the form of agriculture and livestock
assistance. Furthermore, violence will likely be concentrated in urban centers, areas that
are not the focus of programming for emergency and early recovery assistance under the
agriculture and livestock sector. In developing a humanitarian contingency plan, FAO and
partners have therefore developed a realistic plan focused on only the most vulnerable
pastoralists, agro-pastoralists and farming households.
In this document, FAO proposes a comprehensive suite of response options budgeted at
US$10.2 million based on likely scenarios and the appropriateness of each response.
Together with preparedness activities, the provision of agricultural inputs and livestock,
as well as rehabilitation and conflict management, the plan considers the potential
deleterious effects of Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MLND) and aflatoxin outbreaks on
food prices. It also considers options for agriculture in urban areas, some of the highest
risk areas for election violence.
ii
1.
ANALYSIS AND PLANNING
1.1
Scenarios
In developing a pre- and post-election contingency plan for the agriculture and livestock
sector, FAO has considered the following scenarios:
Best case scenario: The best case scenario is that the elections run smoothly and there is
very limited violence which is confined to a few isolated and unrelated incidents.
Most likely scenario: The most likely scenario is that the elections (campaigns and
voting) are marked by localized disturbances in certain communities. The election period
coincides with the period when farmers in most parts of the country are engaged in
farming activities (land preparation, procurement of inputs, planting, weeding). Although
the campaigns will affect the time farmers put into these activities, any localized
disturbances will result in significant reduction in area of land prepared and planted with
crops. In counties where county-level positions are disputed along tribal lines, these
disturbances are likely to spread.
A disruption in normal societal functions will likely impact the movement of goods,
services, capital and labor. This may translate into difficulties in entering the labor
market for the most vulnerable segments of society, hence impacting their food security.
Hoarding of grains by traders in anticipation of better prices could also exacerbate the
food insecurity of the most vulnerable.
In addition, mitigating the risks of Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MLND) and aflatoxin
and their effect on food prices must go hand in hand with preparedness and response
measures.
The effects of the most likely scenario must be mitigated at the onset of the crisis to
protect rural livelihoods and urban communities.
Worst case scenario: The worst case scenario is a repetition of the 2007/8 post-election
violence, with coordinated, wide-spread violence across the country. Over the long term,
the consequences of such scenario are exceptionally damaging and might represent a
major setback to the development and growth of the agricultural sector.
1.2
Conflict hotspots
There are a number of potential conflict hotspots which have been identified:
1
Northern / North Eastern: Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Marsabit, Isiolo, Samburu, West Pokot
– these areas are less likely to be affected by wide-scale violence resulting from the
general election, but there is a possibility that they will experience some unrest over the
county-level elections. Garissa and Mandera are likely to experience continued unrest as
a result of their proximity to Somalia.
Coast: Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River – the recent unrest at the coast as a result of
high poverty levels, high rates of unemployment and inequities in past national
development programmes, has led to the recent calls for session by the Mombasa
Republican Council (MRC). This is likely to increase the risk of violence in the
forthcoming election period.
Urban slums: As evidenced in the 2007/8 post-election violence, the high levels of
poverty and unemployment in urban slums, coupled with the proximity of people of
different ethnic origin, provides a flash point for politically-motivated violence.
Rift Valley and Western Kenya: As the majority of the presidential aspirants come from
the high potential areas of the Rift Valley and Western Kenya, these represent some of
the most critical areas for the elections. If there is no (or very limited) violence in these
areas, the likelihood is that any other cases of violence will remain isolated. However, if
violence spreads in these areas, there is a strong possibility that this will be mirrored in
the urban slums and that the worst case scenario will occur.
1.3
Aggravating factors
In addition to the above scenarios, FAO has identified a number of issues which are likely
to aggravate the food insecurity situation after the elections.
Planting season: The elections in 2013 coincide with the main planting season for the
long rains. Even in the absence of violence, it is likely that the acreage planted will be
depressed as people attend political rallies. If there is violence, it is highly likely that
access to planting materials and even land will become limited in some areas.
Conflict over resources: In some areas of Kenya’s arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), there
is a significant risk of increased inter-communal violence as candidates from different
tribes vie for the position of Governor. According to Kenya’s new land act, land which is
considered un-used or idle (although pastoral land is not idle, it is commonly considered
as such by the government) will be held in trust by the county government. This could
potentially mean that a county governor could favor his or her tribe over others through
2
the allocation of land and resources. Competition for this position is therefore likely to
be fierce and could lead to politically motivated resource conflict.
Food price: There are a number of different factors which are likely to drive food prices
up during and after the election period.

Pre-purchase of food stocks: It is highly likely that people across the country prepurchase food stocks prior to the elections. This is likely to lead to a peak in demand
just prior to the elections and a consequent price spike.

Depressed harvests: Although the rains should be good this growing season, there is
evidence (based on the recently-concluded assessment of high- and mediumpotential areas) that Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MLND) is spreading and will
negatively affect the maize harvest in early 2013.

Post-harvest losses: Weather forecasts predict enhanced rainfall through January and
February. When this has happened in the past, there have been severe aflatoxin
outbreaks in stored maize, reducing the amount that is fit for consumption and sale.

Decreased acreage under production: Farmers may be unable to prepare and plant
their land due to both displacement and engagement in political activities.While this
will not affect the early 2013 harvest, it will impact the quantity of food produced
through the 2013 long rains season.
Lack of access: Unrest and violence in hotspots may affect accessibility to food and to
markets.
Reduced harvest, post-harvest losses and a decrease in planting acreage will result in a
decrease in the national supply of maize, necessitate imports and cause price increases.
3
2.
RESPONSE
2.1
Coordination
FAO will continue to support Government-led coordination systems. In the unlikely
event, however, that these become dysfunctional, FAO will coordinate with both national
and international NGOs through the UN cluster system.
2.2
Implementation arrangements
FAO will implement through the Government as well national and international NGOs.
Implementing partners will, however, be selected on the basis of neutrality. In areas
where national NGOs represent one particular section of a community, implementation
through international NGOs or the Government will be prioritised. Similarly, if there is
significant animosity against the Government, national and international NGOs will be
prioritised as implementing partners.
2.3
Preparedness activities
Regardless of the post-election scenario, preparedness work will be necessary. This work
will be confined to the areas where conflict is most likely.

Input assessment: Identification of agricultural input suppliers / agro-vets in conflictprone areas and assess availability of inputs (particularly fast-maturing crops) both
locally and nationally

Assessment on impact of electioneering and post-election on food security

Assess the feasibility of input voucher fairs instead of direct distribution in conflict
areas

Identify implementing partners in conflict areas

Development of beneficiary identification criteria

Development of draft letters of agreement with implementing partners in conflictprone areas

Monitor food prices

Coordination of actors and activities / alignment with other UN-led programmes

Radio-based messages for raising awareness on rural farming work during the preelection period
2.4
Provision of inputs and livestock
The election coincides with the peak planting season for the long rains. It is likely that,
even in the best-case scenario, planting will be affected. In the most likely scenario, in
4
some areas, people will not be able to access inputs and may have limited access to their
farms. The proposed activities therefore focus on the provision of fast-maturing crops
and the replacement of livestock with pregnant animals in order to enable affected
populations to rapidly recover from the effects of any election violence. These activities
are not so relevant for the worst-case scenario as, should this happen, violence will limit
access to farms throughout the planting season and the provision of livestock could
make beneficiaries targets for more violence.

Distribution of quality seeds (especially fast maturing varieties) through voucher/seed
fairs

Provision of tools, fertiliser, pesticides and herbicides through vouchers

Livestock restocking

Distribution of relevant veterinary drugs and vaccines
2.5
Improving access to water and pasture
The elections will aggravate tensions within and among communities over resources.
Proposed activities will include conflict management (training/negotiation) as well as
promotion of mutually-beneficial resource use agreements.

Holistic natural resource management / inter- and intra-communal conflict
management
2.6
Rehabilitation of infrastructure and businesses
Based on lessons learned from the 2007/8 post-election violence, a significant amount
of agricultural infrastructure was destroyed in conflict hotspots. The rehabilitation of this
infrastructure and the provision of support to businesses that lost their stock was
essential in enabling rapid recovery in these areas.

Reconstruction of destroyed grain storage structures (replacement with metal silos)

Reconstruction of destroyed veterinary infrastructure

Provisions of start-up loans to enable the revival of agribusinesses
2.7
Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MLND)
Based on information from the recently concluded assessment of high- and mediumpotential areas (December 2012), MLND is likely to have a significant effect on harvests
early next year. While this is not directly related to the possibility of election violence, a
depressed harvest coupled with the likelihood of a decrease in the area planted will have
a significant effect on both the availability of maize in the country and the price of
5
maize. It is therefore critical that initiatives aimed at mitigating the impact of MLND are
put in place prior to the elections and go hand in hand with election preparedness and
contingency plans.

Maize disease surveillance

Radio-based extension messages

Multi-tribal Farmer Field School (FFS) groups on crop husbandry and multi-cropping
in conflict hotspots and MLND hotspots

Support to research identifying disease transmission mechanisms
2.8
Aflatoxin
Similar to MLND, aflatoxin prevention and mitigation may not seem relevant to the
possibility of post-election violence. The current forecast for December 2012 – January
2013, however, calls for enhanced rainfall. In the past, this has raised aflatoxin levels in
stored maize. This, coupled with the likelihood of decreased availability of maize on the
market, would negatively impact the availability and price of maize. Aflatoxin prevention
and control methods must therefore be considered integral in election contingency
planning.

Establishment of FFS groups to look at maize husbandry, harvest and post-harvest
management

Support the fabrication of metal silos in areas where aflatoxin is a significant problem

Distribution of metal silos to FFS groups
2.9
Urban agriculture
Urban slums represent some of the highest risk areas for election-related violence due
to the high numbers of unemployed youth. Projects targeting this group, and providing
them with an opportunity for manual work and a multi-ethnic learning environment
could contribute to reducing the risk of escalated violence. This type of initiative will
also be of significant benefit to the recovery process should violence erupt.

Formation of mixed ethnic groups in slums

FFS with mixed ethnic groups on urban agriculture
6
3.
BUDGET
ACTIVITY
BUDGET (USD)
Preparedness
Input assessment: Identification of agricultural input suppliers / agro-vets in conflict-prone
25,000
areas and assess availability of inputs (particularly fast-maturing crops) both locally and
nationally
Assessment on impact of electioneering and post-election on food security
25,000
Assess the feasibility of input voucher fairs instead of direct distributions in conflict areas
10,000
Identify implementing partners in conflict areas
5,000
Development of beneficiary identification criteria
15,000
Development of draft letters of agreement with identified implementing partners in conflict
5,000
prone areas
Monitor food prices
12,000
Coordination of actors and activities / alignment with other UN-led programmes
200,000
Radio-based messages for raising awareness on rural farming work during the pre-election
80,000
period
Sub-total
377,000
Provision of inputs and livestock
Distribution of quality seeds (especially fast maturing varieties) through voucher/seed fairs
1,000,000
Provision of tools, fertiliser, pesticides and herbicides through vouchers
1,000,000
Livestock restocking
2,000,000
Distribution of relevant veterinary drugs and vaccines
500,000
Sub-total
7
4,500,000
Improving access to water and pasture
Holistic natural resource management / inter- and intra-communal conflict management
Sub-total
400,000
400,000
Rehabilitation of infrastructure and businesses
Reconstruction of destroyed grain storage structures (replacement with metal silos)
500,000
Reconstruction of destroyed veterinary infrastructure
500,000
Provisions of start up loans to enable the revival of agribusinesses
500,000
Sub-total
1,500,000
Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MLND)
Maize disease surveillance
200,000
Radio-based extension messages
400,000
Multi-tribal FFS groups on crop husbandry and multi-cropping in conflict hotspots and
500,000
maize disease hotspots
Support to research identifying disease transmission mechanisms
200,000
Sub-total
1,300,000
Aflatoxin
Establishment of FFS groups to look at maize husbandry, harvest and post harvest
500,000
management
Support the fabrication of metal silos in areas where aflatoxin is a significant problem
Distribution of metal silos to FFS groups
500,000
50,000
Sub-total
Urban agriculture
8
1,050,000
Formation of mixed ethnic groups in slums
50,000
FFS with mixed ethnic groups on urban agriculture
1,000,000
9
Sub-total
1,050,000
GRAND TOTAL
10,177,000
ANNEXES
Annex 1: Response options and analysis
Activity
Relevance of activity per
Relevance of activity under possible
livelihood objective
scenarios
Rapid
Protect
Rebuil
No /
Isolated
Wide scale
Recover
Assistance
assets
d
very
violence
violence
y
assets
limited
(most
(worst
(relevant
violence
likely
case
to all
(best
scenario
scenario)
scenario
case
)
s)
scenari
o)
Preparedness
Note: Regardless of the post election scenario the preparedness work will be
necessary. This work will be confined to the areas where conflict is most
likely.
Input assessment:
*****
***
*
*****
*****
*****
Identification of
agricultural input
suppliers / agro-vets in
conflict-prone areas
and assess availability
of inputs (particularly
fast-maturing crops)
both locally and
nationally
Assessment on impact
*****
*****
of electioneering and
post election on food
security
Assess the feasibility of
*****
***
*****
input voucher fairs
instead of direct
distributions in conflict
areas
Identify implementing
*****
*****
partners in conflict
areas
Development of
*****
****
beneficiary
identification criteria
10
*****
*****
*****
Development of draft
*****
**
*
*****
*****
*****
letters of agreement
with identified
implementing partners
in conflict prone areas
Monitor food prices
***
Coordination of actors
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
****
*****
*****
*
*****
and activities /
alignment with other
UN-led programmes
Radio-based messages
*****
for raising awareness on
rural farming work
during the pre -election
period
Provision
of
quality
inputs
Note: The elections fall at a time which coincides with the peak planting
season for the long rains. It is likely that, even in the best case scenario,
planting will be affected. In the most likely case scenario it is highly likely
that, in some areas people will not be able to access inputs and may have
limited access to their farms. The activities below therefore focus on the
provision of fast maturing crops and the replacement of livestock with
pregnant animals in order to enable affected populations to rapidly recover
from the effects of any election violence. The activities below are not so
relevant for the worst case scenario as, should this happen, violence will
limit access to farms throughout the planting season and the provision of
livestock could make beneficiaries targets for more violence.
Distribution of quality
*****
*****
*****
**
******
*****
*****
*****
**
*****
***
*****
*****
*****
***
*****
*****
*****
seeds (especially fast
maturing varieties)
through seed/voucher
fairs
Provision
of
tools,
fertiliser, pesticides and
herbicides
through
vouchers
Livestock restocking
Distribution of relevant
veterinary
drugs
and
vaccines
Improving access to
Note: The elections will aggravate tensions within and among communities
water and pasture
over resources. Proposed activities will include conflict management
(training/negotiation) as well as promotion of mutually-beneficial resource
use agreements.
11
Holistic natural resource
***
***
******
*****
*
*****
management / interand intra-communal
conflict management
Rehabilitation of
Note: Based on lessons learned from the 2007 / 2008 post election violence,
infrastructure and
a significant amount of agricultural infrastructure was destroyed in the
businesses
conflict hot spots. The rehabilitation of this infrastructure and the provision
of support to businesses that lost their stock was essential in enabling rapid
recovery in these areas.
Reconstruction of
**
*****
*****
destroyed grain storage
structures (replacement
with metal silos)
Reconstruction of
**
*****
destroyed veterinary
and water infrastructure
Provisions of start up
**
*****
*****
loans to enable the
revival of agribusinesses
Maize Lethal Necrosis
Note: Based on information from the recently concluded assessment of
Disease (MLND)
high- and medium-potential areas (December 2012), MLND is likely to have
a significant effect on harvests early next year. While this is not directly
related to the possibility of election violence, a depressed harvest coupled
with the likelihood of a decrease in the area planted will have a significant
effect on both the availability of maize in the country and the price of maize.
It is therefore critical that initiatives aimed at mitigating the impact of MLND
are put in place prior to the elections and go hand in hand with election
preparedness and contingency plans.
Maize disease
*****
*****
surveillance
Radio based extension
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
messages
Multi-tribal FFS groups
on crop husbandry and
multi- cropping in
conflict hotspots and
maize disease hotspots
Support to research
identifying disease
transmission
mechanisms
12
Aflatoxin
Note: Similar to MLND, aflatoxin prevention and mitigation may not seem
relevant to the possibility of post-election violence. The current forecast for
December 2012 – January 2013, however, calls for enhanced rainfall. In the
past, this has raised aflatoxin levels in stored maize. This, coupled with the
likelihood of decreased availability of maize on the market, would negatively
impact the availability and price of maize. Aflatoxin prevention and control
methods must therefore be considered integral in election contingency
planning.
Establishment of FFS
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
groups to look at maize
husbandry, harvest and
post harvest
management
Support the fabrication
of metal silos in areas
where aflatoxin is a
significant problem
Distribution of metal
silos to FFS groups
Urban agriculture
Note: The urban slums represent some of the highest risk areas for election
related violence due to the high numbers of unemployed youth. Projects
targeting this group, and providing them with an opportunity for manual
work and a multi ethnic learning environment could contribute to reducing
the risk of escalated violence.
This type of initiative will also be of
significant benefit to the recovery process should violence erupt.
Formation of mixed
***
*****
*****
***
*****
*****
***
*****
*****
***
*****
*****
ethnic groups in slums
FFS with mixed ethnic
groups on urban
agriculture
Key:
Scoring: ***** Significant benefits; **** Benefits / appropriate;
*** Some benefits; ** A few benefits; * Very few benefits / not appropriate; n/a: Not
appropriate;
-*
Potential negative impact
13
Annex 2: Timeframe for proposed response options
Activity
Ja F
M A
M J
J
A
S
O N
D
Budget
n
e
a
p
a
u
u
u
e
c
o
e
(USD)
b
r
r
y
n
l
g
p
t
v
c
Preparedness
Input assessment:
X
X
25,000
Identification of
agricultural input
suppliers / agro-vets in
conflict-prone areas and
assess availability of
inputs (particularly fastmaturing crops) both
locally and nationally
Assessment on impact of
X
X
25,000
electioneering and post
election on food security
Assess the feasibility of
X
X
10,000
X
5,000
X
X
15,000
X
X
5,000
Monitor food prices
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
12,000
Coordination of actors
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
200,00
input voucher fairs
instead of direct
distributions in conflict
areas
Identify implementing
partners in conflict areas
Development of
beneficiary identification
criteria
Development of draft
letters of agreement with
identified implementing
partners in conflict prone
areas
and activities / alignment
0
14
with other UN led
programmes
Radio-based
messages X
X
X
80,000
for raising awareness on
rural
farming
during
work
pre-election
period
Provision of quality inputs (estimated target 30,000 HH)
Distribution of quality
X
X
X
X
X
1,000,0
seeds (especially fast
00
maturing varieties)
through seed/voucher
fairs
Provision
of
tools,
X
X
X
X
X
1,000,0
fertiliser, pesticides and
herbicides
00
through
vouchers)
Livestock restocking
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
2,000,0
00
Distribution of relevant
veterinary
drugs
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
and
500,00
0
vaccines
Improving access to water and pasture
Holistic natural resource X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
management / inter- and
intra-communal
X
X
X
X
400,00
0
conflict
management
Rehabilitation of infrastructure and businesses
Reconstruction of
X
X
X
X
destroyed grain storage
500,00
0
structures (replacement
with metal silos)
Reconstruction of
X
destroyed veterinary and
X
X
X
500,00
0
water infrastructure
15
Provisions of start up
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
loans to enable the
500,00
0
revival of agribusinesses
Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MLND)
Maize
disease X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
surveillance
200,00
0
Radio-based
extension X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
messages
400,00
0
Multi tribal FFS groups on X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
crop husbandry and multi
500,00
0
cropping in conflict hot
spots and maize disease
hot spots
Support
to
research X
identifying
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
disease
200,00
0
transmission
mechanisms
Aflatoxin
Establishment
of
FFS X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
groups to look at maize
500,00
0
husbandry, harvest and
post
harvest
management
Support the fabrication of X
metal
silos
in
where
aflatoxin
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
areas
is
500,00
0
a
significant problem
Distribution
of
metal X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
50,000
mixed X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
50,000
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
1,000,0
silos to FFS groups
Urban agriculture.
Formation
of
ethnic groups in slums
FFS with mixed ethnic X
groups
on
urban
00
agriculture
16
Total
USD 10,177,000
17