Summary of Food Security Situation - November 2012
A food situation assessment of high and medium rainfall areas was undertaken from 11 – 21
November. Nine teams composed of staff from the ministries of Livestock, Agriculture and
Fisheries, together with NDMA, World Vision, WFP and FAO, undertook the assessment in 54
districts in Western, Nyanza, Rift Valley and Central provinces.
The main objective is to assess the status of the food situation with regard to crop and livestock
production. The availability of farm inputs will be determined as will a projection of food stocks for
the next 6 – 12 months. The assessment will also consider the challenges that face food
production and commodity marketing in these areas and will propose necessary response options
to mitigate these challenges.
While the main assessment report is currently being drafted, some preliminary observations have
been issued. In areas surveyed, the food situation will remain fair for the next four months. High
food prices will be experienced (both in areas surveyed and nationwide) due to the increasingly
high cost of production. In areas surveyed, the price of inputs (e.g., fertilizers, seeds, vaccines)
have gone up by 35-50 per cent. Livestock production, especially for commercial poultry, is at risk
of being abandoned by farmers due to the high cost of feed. Milk production, however, has
improved compared to the same period last year. Furthermore, fish production has greatly
improved but there is an urgent need to review fingerling production programmes. Maize
production was affected significantly by Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MLND) in the Rift Valley.
MLND has spread in other regions and is likely to negatively impact maize production. Early rains
during the short rains season have also impacted crop production, in particular beans.
It should also be noted that land preparation for the long rains season in areas surveyed will take
place around election time. Any civil unrest may have negative repercussions, and the situation is
being monitored closely. While most agencies have food security programmes in the ASAL areas,
very few implement programmes in high and medium rainfall areas. This imbalance needs to be
addressed. The final assessment report is expected to be released on or before 10 December.
The onset of the 2012 October to December
short rains season occurred in the 1st to 2nd
week of November in most parts of the
southeast marginal agricultural and coastal
lowlands as well as pastoral areas. Although
good amounts continue to be received,
distribution has been uneven as reflected by the
graphic depicting vegetation index. Vegetation
conditions are still poor in the northwestern parts
of the country and in parts of the northeast. The
expected mild to moderate El Niño episode
predicted earlier on has been downgraded and
the event will not occur. However, normal to
above normal short rains season is still expected
in most parts of the country but may cease
earlier than expected especially in the Coastal
areas. As a result of the continued rains, water
sources have recharged, improving availability
and the regeneration of grazing resources have
begun impacting positively on livestock
productivities.
Vegetation Index: 2nd dekad of November